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Go to Week 11 NFL Picks - Early Games
Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at San Diego Chargers (2-7)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread:
Walt's Calculated Line:
Sunday, Nov 22, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.
Survivor Update: We had 2,653 people enter, and had 2,282 still alive after Week 1. And then, Week 2 happened. The Colts, Saints, Ravens and Dolphins murdered almost everyone, and as a consequence, there were only 164 players remaining. We were down to 14 last week, but thanks to 11 of 14 underdogs winning straight up, only four remain: BriLy24, pmp300, Dewe0201 and sabresbills04. They took the Panthers, Panthers, Vikings and Panthers, respectively, last week.
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SAN DIEGO OFFENSE:
If the Chargers weren't already 2-7, I'd say that the bye week came at the right time for them. That's because they were dealing with numerous injuries, particularly up front. Several offensive linemen have been missing, including Orlando Franklin and King Dunlap. Both linemen practiced Wednesday, and it appears as though they'll play. If so, it'll provide a huge boost for San Diego's scoring attack, which has had to rely on checkdown passes to move the chains for the most part.
If Rivers is able to get enough time in the pocket, he'll probably be able to exploit an easy matchup. The Chiefs have struggled against the pass all year; battling a decrepit Peyton Manning helped their rankings, but they were around 20 in terms of defensive YPA prior to playing Denver. Rivers isn't playing like a dying animal, unlike his veteran counterpart, so he'll be able to take advantage of the holes in Kansas City's defense.
The Chiefs have been solid against the rush, so don't expect much from Melvin Gordon. The rookie runner has been ineffective for the most part, so perhaps the Chargers have discovered during the bye week that minimizing his touches would be for the best.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE:
The Chargers have some injury concerns as well on this side of the ball. Corey Liuget and Manti Te'o are some of the players who were hurt going into the bye, while Eric Weddle didn't look the same while returning from his injury against the Ravens. A week off will be a huge boost for him. It's unclear if Liuget and/or Te'o will return yet, but they both practiced Wednesday, which is a great sign.
Having Weddle around will be crucial to help defend Travis Kelce, who is just one of two key players in Kansas City's aerial attack. Jeremy Maclin is the other, and Jason Verrett can handle him. Alex Smith, as a result, will continue to toss checkdowns. Actually, he was going to do that anyway, so I don't know why I even bothered writing this paragraph.
The Chiefs, however, will run the ball well; Charcandrick West trampled the Broncos, and San Diego has one of the worst ground defenses in the NFL. That's where Liuget and Te'o come in. Liuget is the team's best rush defender, while Te'o will allow the Chargers to take the inept Donald Butler off the field on all three downs.
This is my October NFL Pick of the Month. I didn't have an October NFL Pick of the Month because my selections were terrible back then. They still stink, but not nearly as bad as they did prior to Week 8. At any rate, here are the reasons I'm taking the Chargers for eight units:
1. I love Rivers' matchup against the Kansas City secondary. The Chiefs' defensive numbers have gotten better lately, thanks to a slew of terrible quarterbacks they've battled. Manning, as mentioned, was playing on just one leg. Before that, it was Matthew Stafford, who has been awful. Before that, Landry Jones. Before that, Teddy Bridgewater, who didn't have to throw very much. The Chiefs haven't battled a team with a strong passing attack since Week 4, and Cincinnati won that game in a blowout, 36-21.
2. The players the Chargers will be getting back from injury will help. I already listed all of the names. I'm sure all of them won't return, but it sounds like most of them will, which means the Chargers will have better talent on the field.
3. The Chiefs don't have the greatest history in San Diego. The Chargers have won five of the previous six meetings at this location, and the one victory was by only three points.
4. This spread makes no sense. Who are the Chiefs to be laying three points on the road? They're average at best, while San Diego has been in every game this year, save for the Week 3 Minnesota contest in which the entire offensive line went down. The Chargers are not as bad as their record indicates. Plus, think about it: This spread, if it were in Kansas City, would be -9. That's absurd. The Chiefs were just 4.5-point favorites over the Lions at a neutral site!
5. I don't think the Chiefs will be 100-percent focused for this game. They're coming off a statement victory over the Broncos. I think they'll buy too much into that, when in reality, Denver isn't very good any longer. This has "letdown" written all over it.
6. The Chargers, on the contrary, are coming off a bye, so they've had extra time to game plan for this matchup. Rivers is 4-5 straight up, 2-7 against the spread off a bye, but he has been a favorite or one-point underdog in every instance. This is a different dynamic.
7. Speaking of trends, everyone knows how great Andy Reid is off a bye. Chris Berman mentioned it 5,000 times this past week. What everyone barely talks about is how bad Reid is two weeks following the bye. He's just 4-10 against the spread in those situations.
8. It's too early to tell what the sharps are doing, but the public is hitting up the Chiefs at a 2:1 clip. It never hurts to be on the same side as the books.
Again, eight units on the Chargers, and I'm locking this in just in case the spread drops. I don't know which way the line will go, but +3 to +2.5 isn't worth the risk of seeing +3 go to +3.5. If you're with me, good luck. If you're against me, well, you're probably going to win money this week, based on how awful my selections have been.
Still loving the Chargers. Good luck if you're going against me. Congrats on your winnings if fading me once again.
No line movement, but the juice has shifted up and down. It appears as though everyone is split. Leave it to me to make a Pick of the Month on a 50-50 game!
The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
The Chiefs are coming off a big statement victory.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Tons of bets were coming in on the Chiefs earlier.
Percentage of money on Kansas City: 51% (27,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
History: Home Team has won 23 of the last 34 meetings (Chargers have won 11 of the last 15).
Andy Reid is 16-7 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.
Andy Reid is 11-6 ATS on the West Coast.
Andy Reid is 4-10 ATS two weeks after the bye.
Philip Rivers is 2-7 ATS off a bye.
Opening Line: Chiefs -3.
Opening Total: 45.5.
Week 11 NFL Pick: Chargers 34, Chiefs 24
Chargers +3 (8 Units - October NFL Pick of the Month) -- Incorrect; -$880
Over 45 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 33, Chargers 3
Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (7-2)
Line: Packers by 1. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.
Walt's Calculated Line: Vikings -6.
Sunday, Nov 22, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Vikings.
Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 8! Episode 10 is posted. Emmitt and his crew reunite with old friends, while Kim Jong-un makes a startling announcement.
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I think Aaron Rodgers is injured. That's the only logical explanation I can come up with. Seriously, it makes the most sense. Rodgers has played with poor supporting casts before, and he's dealt with offensive line problems - even worse than what he's suffering through now - and he's never been this bad. So many of his passes are off the mark, it's ridiculous. Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL, so the fact that he's so inaccurate on so many passes means that something's definitely wrong. If I have time, I'm going to re-watch the second half of the Chiefs Monday night game and the first half of the San Francisco contest so see if he took any punishing blows to set this off because that's where his struggles began.
If Rodgers really is injured, I can't see him doing much against the Vikings. He couldn't even beat the Lions, and they have horrible personnel on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota has a terrific pass rush that will easily get by Green Bay's struggling offensive line. Rodgers will have to rush more of his throws, which he'll have to force into tight coverage because his receivers can't get open.
Don't count on anything from James Starks or the obese Eddie Lacy either, at least in terms of rushing yardage. The Vikings are fantastic against the run; excluding their matchup against Todd Gurley, the top back in the NFL except for maybe Adrian Peterson, and they have surrendered less than 70 rushing yards per game since losing to the Broncos.
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Speaking of Peterson, he had a shaky start to his season, but he has since rounded into shape and has looked like the All Day of old. Peterson gashed a strong St. Louis run defense two weeks ago, and he absolutely wrecked the Raiders this past Sunday, so I don't see why he'd have any problems getting through the Packers, who have allowed their fair share of huge rushing performances this year. It's not a great matchup for Peterson, but he should exploit it nonetheless.
Where the Packers have struggled on this side of the ball is in the secondary, which notably surrendered 500 yards to Philip Rivers and 300 yards to a decrepit Peyton Manning, who struggled to complete a forward pass against the Chiefs. Sam Shields' return helps, but their big concerns are at linebacker, a position in which no one on the roster can cover effectively. This includes Clay Matthews, who now looks lost here after excelling at the new role in 2014.
Teddy Bridgewater's numbers haven't been pretty, but he has come up with big plays when they've mattered most. He'll be able to find Stefon Diggs for some decent gains, and he'll also pick up some first downs with his legs when needed. It won't be an overly dominant offensive attack, but you don't need one to beat the Packers nowadays.
RECAP: I've been criticized for improperly calculating my personal point spreads when it comes to the Vikings this year. For instance, someone yelled at me for saying Minnesota should've been -10 versus the Chiefs. Well, the Vikings have long been underrated by everyone, even the sharps, which would explain why they're 8-1 against the spread. People are starting to come around, but they still haven't realized how great this team is.
The Vikings are better than the Packers. They have superior personnel at every single position, save for quarterback, and Rodgers is either injured or stuck in a mental funk. I also love Mike Zimmer in a matchup against Mike McCarthy. Zimmer will coach circles around McCarthy. Thus, with all of that said, my projected spread for this is Vikings -6. It's not even close right now.
I was planning on taking Minnesota as my Pick of the Month prior to Sunday's games. The look-ahead line was Packers -3, which would've been ridiculous. Green Bay is now +1, so I'm not as obsessed with this game, but I still love the Vikings enough to take them for five units. On top of the matchup, personnel and coaching edges, they've performed well versus the Packers at home over the years, owning a 4-2 ATS record against them as hosts. They lost 24-21 at home against them last year, but they were worse while Green Bay was so much better.
FINAL THOUGHTS: There's been some sharp action on the Vikings, but not an overwhelming amount. I still love Minnesota.
SUNDAY NOTES: The Vikings are +1 on Bovada. Lots of service plays I got my hands on are taking the Vikings. I'm not sure if that's good or bad.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Packers play on Thursday, but this game is obviously way more important.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on Green Bay: 59% (44,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Packers.
History: Packers have won 9 of the last 10 meetings (excluding 2013 tie).
Packers are 37-18 ATS in divisional games since 2006.
Aaron Rodgers is 63-39 ATS since 2009 (9-6 ATS as a favorite of 12+).
Aaron Rodgers is 25-21 ATS on the road as long as he's not favored by 6.5 or more points.
Aaron Rodgers is 18-7 ATS after a loss (just 9-4 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).
Opening Line: Vikings -1.
Opening Total: 45.
Week 11 NFL Pick: Vikings 23, Packers 17
Vikings +1 (5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$550
Under 45 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Packers 30, Vikings 13
San Francisco 49ers (3-6) at Seattle Seahawks (4-5)
Line: Seahawks by 14. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -11.
Walt's Calculated Line: Seahawks -10.
Sunday, Nov 22, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is Halloween 2015.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: I thought there was a chance that the Seahawks could improve during the bye week in terms of their putrid blocking. Perhaps some personnel change or scheme shift might have helped. As it turns out, nothing happened, and it seems as though Russell Wilson will be cursed with horrid offensive line play throughout the remainder of the season.
The 49ers don't have the greatest pass rush in the world, which will help in this matchup. However, I still expect them to pressure Wilson a bit, particularly with Aaron Lynch, who is having a great season. Lynch and a cast of pedestrian talents might just be enough to do it, as Wilson seldom has time to look past his first read while dropping back in the pocket. He constantly has to run for his life, which sometimes results in a positive gain, but I think the coaching staff would prefer it if Wilson were able to have time to locate Jimmy Graham. That seems like a pipe dream right now, however. As a Hall of Fame running back once said, "That happen to be a dream about pipes."
The Seahawks will attempt to establish Marshawn Lynch so Wilson doesn't have to avoid pass-rushers all afternoon. That, however, could be an issue, as Lynch is averaging a yard less per carry this season compared to 2014. Lynch has lost a bit of his explosion, but the main culprit, once again, is the blocking.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Blaine Gabbert will start again, which is a good thing for the 49ers. Gabbert looked like a new man against the Falcons. At the very least, he was a different man compared to Colin Kaepernick, who has been a train wreck this season despite some bozo tweeting out how he has similar stats compared to Cam Newton. Hey, bub, football is not baseball. You can't look at the numbers and determine how players are actually performing.
Gabbert versus the Legion of Doom sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, but I'm serious in saying that he seems like he's better. Remember, Gabbert had some of the best quarterback-related coaching available to him in both Jacksonville and San Francisco, so he was bound to improve, at least somewhat. Granted, he only played better against the Falcons, but it's not like Seattle has been the same on this side of the ball this year.
The Seahawks are still very good defensively, however. That includes their run-stopping ability, as they are 10th versus ground attacks. There's a chance Carlos Hyde will return for this matchup, but no San Francisco runner will have much success.
RECAP: The Seahawks of old would've destroyed the 49ers in this spot, but these Seahawks are most certainly not those of old. They're only slightly above average now, so asking them to cover 12.5 points without their great homefield advantage, which has vanished, is just too much.
I know that Seattle destroyed the 49ers on the road a few weeks ago, but part of the reason that contest was so lopsided was because Kaepernick spent the entire night firing passes out of bounds. Gabbert is an upgrade - I never thought I'd write that - so I like the 49ers to stay within the number by constantly pressuring Wilson and disrupting the Seattle offense.
Having said that, this is just a small play for me. I can't stomach a big bet on Gabbert, even with all of these points.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Some professional money is pushing this upward, which is surprising to me. I'm happy with fading the Seahawks and getting about two touchdowns.
SUNDAY NOTES: Wow, this is up to -14. Both the sharps and public have moved this number up. I guess I'm in the stupid contrarian group.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on Seattle: 53% (21,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
History: Home Team has won 11 of the last 14 meetings.
Seahawks are 33-14 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
Russell Wilson is 8-5 ATS after a loss as long as he's not favored by -10 or more.
Opening Line: Seahawks -12.
Opening Total: 40.5.
Week 11 NFL Pick: Seahawks 19, 49ers 13
49ers +14 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Under 40.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 29, 49ers 13
Cincinnati Bengals (8-1) at Arizona Cardinals (7-2)
Line: Cardinals by 4. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -3.
Walt's Calculated Line: Cardinals -7.
Sunday, Nov 22, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Cardinals.
I usually save this spot for my trolling ventures, but the a**holes who monitor Facebook posts have limited my Mario Migelini account. I also didn't have the opportunity to troll anyone elsewhere, making me a sad panda.
I was going to use this space for more NFL notes, discussing ridiculous things like this:
However, I wanted to make an announcement instead. Because many people need to get their picks in by 5 p.m. next Wednesday as a result of a shortened work week, I'm planning to go old school and post my picks live Tuesday next week instead of Wednesday. My live 2016 NFL Mock Draft will be on Wednesday.
Also, this is going to be a test run of sorts. If everything goes smoothly, I may go back to posting my picks on Tuesday next year. I did this long ago, but changed to Wednesday because the service I used to store my trends sometimes didn't have everything prepared until Tuesday afternoon. This, however, sent me spiraling downward because trend-based handicapping apparently doesn't work at all. Thus, I don't need to wait until Wednesday.
What does everyone think? Should I revert back to Tuesday picks? Or should I keep things as is? Let me know in the comments below, or shoot me an e-mail at email@example.com.
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Here we go again. Andy Dalton's annual late-season swoon has begun; it's that time of year where he begins sailing passes out of bounds and tossing helpless checkdowns on third-and-long in Alex Smith fashion that have no chance to advance past the marker. This cost me $440 last Monday night, and I'm ashamed I didn't recognize the possibility that Dalton would begin his tailspin, yet here we are.
The sad thing is, Dalton struggled versus a defense that isn't very good. Everyone knows about J.J. Watt, but Houston's stop unit has been downright porous this season. The team has endured major tackling issues, which were not present Monday night. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have one of the NFL's best defenses. If Dalton thought Houston's secondary was difficult to navigate through, wait until he gets a look at what Arizona boasts in its defensive backfield.
The Bengals won't be able to run the ball very well either. Jeremy Hill has played like trash this season, yet Cincinnati keeps using him for some reason. The Cardinals rank seventh versus the rush, so they'll have no problem shutting him and Giovani Bernard down.
ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Legion of Boom isn't what it used to be, but Seattle's defense has still been solid recently. Well, until battling the Cardinals, at least. Carson Palmer shredded the Seahawks' secondary, scoring an impressive 39 points on the road. Arizona is for real, and as long as Palmer stays healthy, the team stands a great chance of winning the Super Bowl.
The Cardinals also stand a great chance of winning this game. The Bengals have a talented secondary and a strong pass rush, but it's hard to have an answer for Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd. There's just too much talented weaponry, and the Seahawks couldn't even handle this quartet in front of their loud crowd.
Chris Johnson didn't fare as well in Seattle, but he could have a much greater impact in this contest. Johnson will be battling a defense that has struggled against the run this season. Cincinnati is just two weeks removed from giving 116 yards on the ground to the Steelers. Johnson has been a big surprise this year, and I expect him to have another solid outing here, as the Bengals might be too focused on Palmer and his receivers to worry about an old running back.
RECAP: Dalton embarrassed himself in the national spotlight once again Monday night. He was downright awful against a defense that hadn't played well at all this year. He has a tougher matchup in this contest, and he'll once again be playing on national TV. Choke Season will continue.
I planned on wagering four units on the Cardinals when this spread was released, but the sharps had similar ideas, pounding this line all the way up to -5. I still like Arizona a lot; the team is superior and has a great homefield advantage. I don't see Dalton doing much against a stellar defense, while Palmer should continue to stay hot. This spread is still short of where it should be (-7), so I'm going to bet Arizona for three units.
SUNDAY NOTES: I've had a bad history of locking picks in, but I'll do it at Cardinals -4. The professionals are on Arizona -3 and Cincinnati +5. Some even wagered on both sides, so the books will get killed if this lands on four.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm still placing three units on the Cardinals, so please, please, please, please do not bet on them. You will lose money. I'm not saying to bet the Bengals either, but bad things will happen to you if you wager on Arizona. I guarantee it. I have no read on the NFL whatsoever, and I can't even get to a 50-percent covering rate, which is just embarrassing. Do not follow any of my selections. For what it's worth, I got an e-mail saying that the Bengals will cover because "the NFL is rigged." Like I said, take it for what it's worth.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on Arizona: 55% (65,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
Bengals are 30-16 ATS as underdogs since 2009.
Favorites after playing the Seahawks are 9-25 ATS.
Marvin Lewis is 8-13 ATS in nationally televised regular-season games.
Cardinals are 27-11 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007. ???
Bruce Arians is 28-13 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.
Opening Line: Cardinals -3.
Opening Total: 47.
Week 11 NFL Pick: Cardinals 27, Bengals 13
Cardinals -4 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Under 48 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 34, Bengals 31
Buffalo Bills (5-4) at New England Patriots (9-0)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -9.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Patriots -9.
Monday, Nov 23, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Patriots.
This week on ESPN, we're going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here's what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to the city of New England, where the Bills take on the Patriots! Guys, this is our first Monday night game talking about the Patriots since the Tom Brady scandal, and I have to say my peace. Not only did Brady cheat, but I have proof that he cheated. I'm going to hand in my proof to the proper authorities, and then he'll be suspended for the rest of his life! Hahahaha! That's what he gets for beating my Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl!
Emmitt: Mike, or... uhh... Enrique, I am very interest in seeing your proofs. The wise man sometime say that the proof is in the pudding, so every time I try to proof something, I buy a box of pudding and I look inside and I don't see any proofs!
Herm: THAT'S JUST AN IDIOM! NOT A REAL SAYING! IT'S AN IDIOM! THAT SAYING IS AN IDIOM! NOT AN IDIOT! AN IDIOM! IDIOM HAS THE SAME SPELLING AS IDIOT EXCEPT FOR ONE LETTER! A SINGLE LETTER! JUST ONE LETTER! NOT TWO LETTERS! NOT ZERO LETTERS! NOT MINUS-1 LETTERS! ONLY ONE LETTER! AND NOT THE SORT OF LETTER YOU GET IN THE MAIL! THE POSTMAN NOT DELIVERING THE LETTER! THE LETTER WON'T BE IN YOUR MAILBOX! NOT GOING TO FIND IT THERE! CAN'T FIND IT THERE! IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND IT THERE! WILL NEVER FIND IT THERE! THE LETTER CAN BE FOUND IN THE ALPHABET! AT SOME POINT IN THE ALPHABET! GOTTA LOOK IN THE ALPHABET! GOTTA BROWSE THROUGH THE ALPHABET! GOTTA SEEK THE ALPHABET! GOTTA FIND THE ALPHABET! BUT WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FOR WHEN YOU FIND THE ALPHABET!? HERM FORGOT WHY HE BROUGHT UP THE ALPHABET! HERM NEEDS TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THE ALPHABET HAS TO DO WITH ANYTHING! CAN'T THINK OF IT! GOTTA THINK OF IT! GOTTA... uhh... umm...
Fouts: And here's what Herm means by alphabet. In every culture, there are a certain set of symbols that are supposed to make a certain sound when spoken. These symbols, called letters, are combined to form words. Words have a certain meaning. For instance, if I say the word "chair," that's a combination of five symbols. And five is greater than four, but less than six. The first symbol is "C," which is the third symbol in this so-called alphabet. Third is after second, but before fourth. It's also before fifth and sixth for those keeping score at home. The next letter is "H." I'm not sure where that falls in the alphabet. By my estimation, it's the 16th symbol in this so-called alphabet, which is more than 15th and less than 17th, and it's also greater than third, and also greater than fourth and fifth. And then there's "A." The symbol "A" comes first, but that does not mean it's the worst. First is the worst second is the best, and third is the one with the hairy chest. I suppose I'm third then, which is greater than second, but less than fourth.
Wolfley: SPEAKING OF THE ALPHABET, MY BEST FRIEND GROWING UP WAS THE LETTER "S." WE HAD SOME GOOD TIMES TOGETHER, BUT WHEN I WAS 12, HIS PARENTS GOT A JOB FAR AWAY, AND HE HAD TO MOVE. I HAVEN'T SPOKEN TO HIM SINCE. HE'S GROWN UP TO BE ONE OF TWO THINGS: A LION TAMER OR A SERIAL RAPIST.
Millen: All this talk about alphabets is reminding me of a crazy night I had with a 100-percent USDA Man. We, well, had a little too much to drink, and we were in the super market. We waltzed down the cereal aisle and found the Alpha-Bits cereal, which I enjoyed as a young USDA boy growing up. We decided to buy the Alpha-Bits and make them soggy. Then, we dipped our kielbasas in the Alpha-Bits and rammed each other in the backside all night long. It was a sloppy evening, but boy, we had a lot of fun.
Tollefson: Millen, as usual, you've proven yourself to be a disgusting human being. But we've gotten off-topic. Kevin, you said you have proof of Tom Brady's cheating. I want to hear what it is. I love blackmailing people. I usually steal information and then blackmail men into letting their wives clean and cook naked for me, as God intended.
Reilly: Thank you, Tolly, for getting this broadcast back on the right track. Here's my proof: I was stalking Brady a couple of months ago because I was bored, and I took pictures of him doing something scandalous: He kissed another guy! Ha! Brady's gay, and I have the proof right here! Just look at these photos! I knew he cheated all along! Ha!
Charles Davis: Kevin, I usually talk about cool, random things, Kevin, but you're an idiot, Kevin. Not only did you misunderstand what Brady was accused of cheating of, but you also have no proof that he's even gay. Kevin, that "guy" you took a picture of is his wife, Gisele.
Reilly: WHAT!? ALL THIS TIME I THOUGHT I HAD HIM DEAD TO RIGHTS, AND I HAVE NOTHING!? THAT'S IT, I'M GOING TO SLICE OPEN ALL OF YOUR THROATS BECAUSE I'M SO ANGRY, AHHHHHHHH! We'll be back right after this!
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Patriot players are dropping like flies. It seems like someone significant has been injured every week. Dion Lewis and Sebastian Vollmer got hurt against the Redskins, and then Julian Edelman went down versus the Giants. It goes without saying how huge Edelman's absence will be for the Patriots. He, Lewis and Rob Gronkowski have been Brady's three prominent weapons, and now two are gone. Danny Amendola will start in his place, but he's not the same caliber of player.
The Bills have been solid against tight ends this year, so Edelman's absence will allow them to pay even more attention to Gronkowski. Their pass rush has improved lately ever since Rex Ryan simplified some of his schemes following the London game. As a result, they could rattle Brady, whose pass protection has been very shaky for most of this season. Brady has been able to offset that for the most part by releasing the ball quickly to his talented weapons, but most of those players are gone.
Brady will need LeGarrette Blount to carry the load in order to have an easier time in the pocket. That could actually happen, as the Bills have surrendered numerous 100-yard performances on the ground lately.
BUFFALO OFFENSE: It's imperative for the Patriots that they don't fall behind early so that they can keep pounding the ball with Blount. That means they have to limit the Bills' scoring attack. I don't think they'll have a problem doing so.
The last time Tyrod Taylor battled the Patriots, he had a miserable afternoon before putting together tons of yardage in garbage time. When the game was in doubt, Taylor was befuddled by some of Bill Belichick's perplex schemes. I've been saying that the Patriots' secondary hasn't been tested very much this year; the two quality healthy quarterbacks they've battled this year - Ben Roethlisberger in Week 1, Eli Manning in Week 10 - both torched them. However, Taylor isn't experienced or talented enough (aerially) to join that list.
Buffalo will have to move the chains on the ground via LeSean McCoy, Karlos Williams and Taylor. The problem with that is the Patriots have a strong ground defense that has limited its previous four opponents to 60 rushing yards or fewer. The Bills' scoring attack, as a result, will be pretty inconsistent.
RECAP: This spread makes ZERO sense. The Patriots were -7.5 at the Giants, which means they would've been -13.5 at home versus the same opponent. So, this is saying that the Bills - THE BILLS!!! - are 6.5 points better than New York!
Before seeing the spreads this week, I came in thinking that I was going to take the Bills at around +11ish for a couple of units. Rex Ryan has played mostly close games with Belichick, and the Patriots are missing lots of personnel, so I thought this contest would be decided by 6-10 points. Unfortunately, there's no value with Buffalo.
I honestly don't know what to do with this game. On one hand, the Patriots aren't favored by enough, so we actually have line value with them for the first time all year. On the other hand, this seems like the ultimate trap. The books are practically BEGGING the public to bet New England. Every single square bettor will be on the Patriots.
I think I'm going to pick the Bills, just from the contrarian standpoint. However, I could see practically anything happening in this game, so I won't be betting it at all.
SUNDAY NOTES: I thought about putting a bet on the Bills, but I've lost so much money on them (and the Dolphins) this year that I'm scared to wager on them.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I wanted to bet half a unit on one of these teams to avoid a -$2,000 week. If I lose, it's not a huge deal, so there's at least some upside. I've ultimately decided on the Patriots. This line is just too low. Everyone is talking about how Edelman's absence is going to affect the Patriots, but I think the public is overreacting to this injury. Brady is playing the quarterback position better than anyone else in the league right now, so I have to believe that he'll survive and find a way to beat the Bills without his No. 1 wideout. A back-door touchdown is a possibility, but New England should win, so it stands a decent chance of covering.
The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
The Patriots are coming off an emotional, last-second win. This is a bigger game for the Bills.
The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
I'm shocked there's not more money on the Patriots.
Percentage of money on New England: 73% (71,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Bills.
History: Patriots have won 22 of the last 24 meetings.
Rex Ryan is 7-2 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.
Rex Ryan is 6-3 ATS in same-season revenge games.
Bills are 7-16 ATS since November 2011 as a road underdog.
True home teams are 22-14 ATS in the last 36 Bills games.
Patriots are 46-33 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
Tom Brady is 184-59 as a starter (138-100 ATS).
Opening Line: Patriots -7.5.
Opening Total: 49.
Week 11 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Bills 17
Patriots -7 (0.5 Units) -- Push; $0
Under 47.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Patriots 20, Bills 13
Week 11 NFL Picks - Early Games
Tennessee at Jacksonville,
Oakland at Detroit,
Indianapolis at Atlanta,
New York Jets at Houston,
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia,
Denver at Chicago,
Green Bay at Minnesota,
St. Louis at Baltimore,
Dallas at Miami,
Washington at Carolina
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
2021 NFL Mock Draft - March 2
2022 NFL Mock Draft - Feb. 24
NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 11
NFL Picks - Feb. 8
Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 11
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2020): 1-0 (+$560)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2020): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2020): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2020): 1-0 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2020 plus 2020 props): +$4,735
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,995-2,761-179, 52.0% (+$19,655)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 957-859-49 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,463-2,416-66 (50.5%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 45-29-1 (60.8%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
Bucs: 9-10 (2014-19: 44-45)
49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
Packers: 14-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
Rams: 6-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
Saints: 7-11 (2014-19: 49-50)
Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
Bills: 12-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
Browns: 8-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
Ravens: 6-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
Chiefs: 15-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
Divisional: 43-48 (2011-19: 405-394)
2x Game Edge: 66-61 (2011-19: 213-210)
2x Motivation Edge: 47-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
2x Spread Edge: 44-34 (2011-19: 61-55)
2x Vegas Edge: 26-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
2x Trend Edge: 20-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
Triple Edge: 6-4 (2011-19: 21-18)