NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)

NFL Picks (2015): 17-16-1 (-$480)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 21, 5:55 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games

Baltimore Ravens (0-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-1)
Line: Ravens by 4.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Ravens -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -5.
Sunday, Sep 20, 4:05 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

Survivor Update: We had 2,653 people enter, but lost 371 in Week 1. The Buccaneers killed the most people this past Sunday, as 64 people picked them.

If you’re still alive, make sure you get your WalterFootball.com 2015 NFL Survivor Pool pick in.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Out of all the legitimate playoff contenders, the Ravens had the worst offensive performance in Week 1. This includes the Colts, who were completely blanked until two garbage-time touchdowns. Baltimore scored 13 points, but seven came off a pick-six, and the team was helped by Denver’s offensive ineptitude. It was a horrific showing on all accounts.

However, there are two reasons why Baltimore fans shouldn’t be entirely pessimistic. The first was that Eugene Monroe barely played. He sustained a concussion in the first quarter, forcing the anemic James Hurst into the lineup. To call Hurst a human turnstile would be a compliment. He was worse – perhaps thin air would be appropriate because Denver blew by him as if he weren’t even there. Having Monroe back as Flacco’s blind-side protector will be huge, whenever that happens.

The second reason is that the Ravens battled a terrific Denver defense. Oakland isn’t nearly as potent; the Raiders have some talented players like Khalil Mack, but they couldn’t do anything to stop the Bengals in Week 1. Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard ran all over them, so I expect Justin Forsett to do the same thing, which will make life for Flacco so much easier.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: This spread was posted later than all of the others. That’s because Derek Carr’s status was uncertain. Carr isn’t a very good quarterback – he was erratic in his brief action against Cincinnati – but Matt McGloin is so much worse. I can understand why the sportsbooks were hesitant to post a line, given the huge disparity between the quarterbacks.

1 Carr is reportedly set to start, but I don’t expect the Raiders to have much success moving the ball. The Ravens have a tremendous defense that just put the clamps on Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, so handling Carr, Amari Cooper and some bums shouldn’t be a big deal. Terrell Suggs is out, but the Ravens still have plenty of talent on the stop unit.

RECAP: The Ravens are 23-2 straight up as favorites off a loss under John Harbaugh, including 6-2 against the spread on the road in such situations. That’s pretty good. If the Ravens had lost last week, I’d like the Raiders to cover, but Baltimore will be focused and determined to avoid an 0-2 start.

Unfortunately, we lost all line value because of how putrid Oakland looked in Week 1. This spread was -4 prior to Sunday, but now it’s -6. I’m not willing to bet that, especially with all of the money coming in on Baltimore, but I do think taking the visitor is the right play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public loves Baltimore, as expected. If Carr were out, I’d consider the Ravens as a medium-sized bet, but he gives the Raiders a chance to get within the number.

SUNDAY NOTES: It’s unclear if the sharps or shraps moved this spread down, but they like the Raiders. If you want to bet Baltimore, I’d hold out for a -4, which you might see right before kickoff.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

So, no one wants Raiders action?

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 89% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

John Harbaugh is 6-2 ATS in his second-consecutive road game as long as he’s not a favorite after a win.

Ravens are 3-10 ATS on the West Coast in franchise history.

Ravens are 11-20 ATS as road favorites since 2005 (6-2 ATS off a loss under John Harbaugh).

Raiders are 8-30 ATS at home vs. teams with losing records.

Opening Line: Ravens -6.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Raiders 12
Ravens -4.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 37, Ravens 33

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)
Line: Dolphins by 6. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Dolphins -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -6.
Sunday, Sep 20, 4:05 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 8! Think Deflategate is over? One angry man is threatening the NFL over the Tom Brady allegations.

MIAMI OFFENSE: It was disappointing to see Ryan Tannehill struggle so much in the opener last week – and not just because he was the quarterback I chose for FanDuel. I thought the Dolphins had a good chance to take the next step this year, and they still very well could, but it appears as though they’ll once again be weighed down by their incompetent coach.

Having said that, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Tannehill lights up the Jaguars. That’s because Jacksonville is extremely incompetent. There was zero semblance of a pass rush last week, and that was against Carolina’s atrocious offensive line, and the secondary struggled to cover the likes of Jerricho Cotchery and Ted Ginn. With that in mind, how are the Jaguars going to pressure Tannehill, who has better blocking support, or cover Jarvis Landry, Jordan Cameron and the other wideouts?

The one area in which the Jaguars’ defense excelled last week was containing the run. Jonathan Stewart was limited on the ground, but once again, the Panthers don’t have the blocking to make anything happen for him. Restricting Lamar Miller will be much more challenging.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars had major problems on this side of the ball last week as well, namely blocking for Blake Bortles. The second-year signal-caller took four sacks, but that number would’ve been much higher had he not settled for so many checkdowns to Rashad Greene. Bortles didn’t have any time versus the Panthers, and I don’t see why that would change against a Miami front that might be even more talented.

The only hope the Jaguars really have is establishing T.J. Yeldon and controlling the clock as much as possible. The Dolphins had issues defending Alfred Morris last week, so there’s a chance Yeldon could have a big game. However, Miami seemed like it was half-asleep at Washington, so if the team puts forth better effort, it should have better success defending the run this Sunday.

RECAP: Jaguars for three units! Just kidding. Didn’t mean to give you a heart attack. I’m obviously not going to wager on Jacksonville again until the second half of the season.

I’m taking Miami as a zero-unit selection. The problem with the Dolphins this week is A) they could be looking ahead to a pair of divisional opponents, B) they were sleepwalking last week and needed a punt return to win, so they could slack off again, and C) there’s way too much action them. However, the Jaguars are terrible, and as I said earlier, the worst teams are worse now in today’s NFL.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public loves the Dolphins, as expected. Good luck if you plan on taking a team getting 93 percent of the action. And good luck if you plan on fading them by siding with the awful Jaguars. Just stay away.

SUNDAY NOTES: Once again, I have no strong opinion on this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Dolphins could be looking past pathetic Jacksonville; they have two divisional opponents after this game (Bills, Jets).

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

All the money is on the Dolphins, like last week.

Percentage of money on Miami: 91% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Dolphins are 6-17 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Jaguars are 22-49 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Dolphins -4.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Dolphins 27, Jaguars 17
Dolphins -6 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jaguars 23, Dolphins 20

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)
Line: Eagles by 5. Total: 54.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Eagles -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -2.5.
Sunday, Sep 20, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Tubing Down the Delaware – a near-death experience!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles struggled in the first half of the Monday night game, but caught fire following intermission. Their superior conditioning was prevalent, while the Falcon defenders were gasping for air, holding on for dear life. It’ll be interesting to see if Philadelphia carries over how it plays in the second half to this contest, or if it once again fails to find a rhythm early on until the Cowboys become fatigued.

It’ll help the Eagles that the Cowboys are short-handed. They won’t have Rolando McClain or Greg Hardy until Week 5, so they’ll be weaker in terms of run defense and pass rush until then. It was very strange that Philadelphia barely ran the ball Monday night after paying so much money to DeMarco Murray, but I have to think Chip Kelly will learn from his mistake and establish Murray early and often. Murray will be out for blood to embarrass his old team, so he could conceivably have his best outing of the season, given the extra motivation.

If Murray is established, that’ll make life easier for Sam Bradford, who won’t have to deal with Randy Gregory in addition to Hardy. Gregory looked very promising in his debut, but sustained an injury and will be out for a few weeks. With him gone, Dallas’ pass-rushing options are mostly limited to just Tyrone Crawford and DeMarcus Lawrence.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Of course, the most prominent injury for the Cowboys is to Dez Bryant, who will be out 8-12 weeks (check my Disaster Grades for more.) Does that mean the Cowboys will struggle to move the chains? I doubt it.

I can’t say I was too impressed by what I saw from Philadelphia’s defense Monday night. A couple of players performed on a high level, but the team as a whole struggled to generate any sort of pass rush. Fletcher Cox was the only player who thrived in that department. The Falcons don’t even have a quality offensive line. Dallas, conversely, has one of the top fronts in the NFL. Tony Romo will have all afternoon to throw, so he’ll be able to locate his lesser receivers amid Philadelphia’s struggling secondary.

The Cowboys could also run the ball a little. Tevin Coleman gained 80 yards on 20 carries, and again, the Cowboys block better. Joseph Randle was decent in the opener, so I like his chances to make life easier for Romo.

RECAP: Umm… why is this spread in the -5/-5.5 range? How does that spread make any sense? I have the Cowboys listed at +2.5, so we’re getting three points of value, which is significant, given that we’re across the key figure of three.

I should note that I know why this spread is -5/-5.5 (the latter on Bovada). It’s because ESPN has brainwashed the public into thinking that A) Dallas is done without Dez Bryant, and B) the Eagles are a great team. Philadelphia is solid squad, but not great. Its defense is terrible, and the Cowboys will be fine because they’ll still be able to move the ball effectively. Thus, this will be a close game.

Another reason to like the Cowboys beyond the incorrect point spread: They’re an NFC East divisional underdog! Since 2000, NFC East divisional road dogs are 81-51 against the spread, for an excellent 61.4-percent clip. The Giants covered at Dallas this past Sunday night, and I expect the Cowboys to do the same at Philadelphia this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps didn’t weigh in on this earlier in the week, but they are starting to take the Cowboys. This spread has dropped to +5 already, and I expect it to continue to drop, so if you like Dallas like I do, I’d lock in this selection.

SUNDAY NOTES: Crap, I screwed up. I’m shocked this spread has risen. I thought it would fall for sure. There was big money on the Eagles on Sunday morning, which moved this spread up. If this game falls on six, I’ll be super pissed at myself.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 53% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Road Team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Cowboys are 24-12 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

The underdog is 55-25 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Eagles are 14-28 ATS at home since 2010.

Chip Kelly is 0-3 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Eagles -6.

Opening Total: 54.5.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Eagles 24, Cowboys 23
Cowboys +5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 54.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 20, Eagles 10

Seattle Seahawks (0-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)
Line: Packers by 4. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -3.
Sunday, Sep 20, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Packers.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Unfortunately, I’ve only been able to post as Mario. I tried to troll as Vivian and Kevin, but I kept getting the following error:

I Googled that error, and I came across several Facebook help pages where people – real ones; not trollers – were complaining about the same issue. Unfortunately, none of them had a solution; once they were blocked, they were blocked for good.

Here’s an example of the complaints:

I pretty much agree with all of that. There’s nothing worse than idealistic douche bags in a position of power. The good news is that I was able to successfully troll as Mario.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: So much for Jordy Nelson’s injury impacting the Packers in any shape or form. James Jones just stepped in and dominated, as if he had never left the team. It’s crazy how great Aaron Rodgers is; he can turn a bum who was cut from two teams into a superstar again, just like that.

On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks could use some rejuvination. They uncharacteristically surrendered big gains to pedestrian players last week. They couldn’t contain Benny Cunningham when he caught a screen pass, and they struggled to defend Stedman Bailey, Lance Kendricks, and the like from moving the chains and scoring touchdowns. Kam Chancellor was missing, but that doesn’t excuse the poor play. Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas both struggled, which was odd, while Bobby Wagner, fresh off a contract extension, had one of the worst performances of his career. It was baffling.

Perhaps the Seahawks weren’t focused. I mean, what are the odds that Sherman, Thomas and Wagner would all play poorly? They almost have to rebound, right? The problem is that they’ll have to do so against Rodgers, who is healthy now. That wasn’t the case in the NFC Championship. He and Eddie Lacy should move the chains pretty effectively throughout the evening.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Packers have never been able to beat the Seahawks or 49ers because their defense hasn’t been able to handle mobile quarterbacks. However, will it even matter in this contest? Sure, Wilson will run around, but that’s because he’ll have to. Seattle’s offensive line is an abomination.

If the Packers establish a lead, they’ll be able to live in Wilson’s backfield. The Rams did this last week, collecting six sacks. Granted, the Packers don’t have the same sort of front the Rams possess – most teams don’t – but the Seahawks weren’t battling a high-octane offense either, so they were never way behind where they had to almost completely abandon the run. That could be the case this week.

Seattle’s only hope is to keep this game close and pound the ball with Marshawn Lynch. Establishing Lynch is crucial. It’ll keep Wilson clean, and Lynch should have great success, picking up chunks against a Packer defense that struggles against the run. Matt Forte just ran all over them, so I don’t see why Lynch couldn’t enjoy similar success – as long as he has the opportunity, of course.

RECAP: I’ve talked about public overreaction a bunch. Here’s another instance. Everyone saw the Seahawks lose to the Rams, so this line has moved off the key number of three to +3.5 and even +4 in some places (5Dimes). It could even continue to rise.

The Seahawks seem like the right play to me. Most people would disagree, citing Seattle’s poor offensive line, but what about Green Bay’s equally atrocious run defense? That’s a huge mismatch, yet no one is talking about it. Instead, everyone is trashing Seattle, so I expect the team to bounce back with a strong effort. The superstars I mentioned earlier will likely all have great games, while Wilson should be solid as well, considering how weak the Packers have been versus mobile quarterbacks over the years.

The only reason this isn’t a huge play is because of how great the Packers are at home, but the Seahawks should be fine, especially in a night game. Wilson is 10-2 against the spread off a loss, so I really like being on Seattle’s side in this spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are split on this, while the public is taking the Packers. The Seahawks appear to be the right side, especially with Bryan Bulaga out. The Packers are going to have trouble in the trenches on both sides of the football.

SUNDAY NOTES: Here’s a spread that is actually dropping. I still like the Seahawks a good deal. Check back Sunday evening for more or follow me @walterfootball.

SUNDAY NIGHT: I still like the Seahawks a lot, and this spread is available at +4 -115 on Bovada, so I’m going to take that. Apologies for the Bills pick, by the way. I can’t believe how many mistakes (penalties, turnovers) they made in that game. They looked like they all tailgated and got drunk prior to kickoff. It was awful.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found. The Packers want revenge, but the Seahawks have to avoid 0-2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Slight lean on the Packers

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 64% (34,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Seahawks are 5-11 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ ppg since 2007.

Russell Wilson is 7-3 ATS after a loss as long as he’s not favored by -10 or more.

Russell Wilson is 10-2 ATS as an underdog.

Pete Carroll is 6-3 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Packers are 25-14 ATS at home since 2010.

Aaron Rodgers is 59-35 ATS since 2009 (9-5 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Opening Line: Packers -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Packers 24
Seahawks +4 -115 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$345
Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 27, Seahawks 17

New York Jets (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)
Line: Colts by 7. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Colts -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: .
Monday, Sep 21, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Colts.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Indiana, home of the Colts. Tonight, the New York Jets will be playing the Colts. Before that, I need to read a new ad that we have. Hi, I’m Kevin Reilly. And I’m crazy-bearded Kevin Reilly and I have cable. Oh wait, I’m normal Kevin Reilly again and I have DirecTV, I uhh… forgot to say that. Being Kevin Reilly, I like the Eagles. And as crazy-bearded Kevin Reilly, I like the stupid Cowboys derp dee derp dee derp. Guys, what do you think of my new ad? If Andrew Luck can be a star, then so can I!

Emmitt: Mike, I think you confusioning yourselves. Every time you talk normal you fine, but then when you talk crazy, you put a fake beard on your head. You have what the psychologitrists call Multiplication Personality Disorder.

Reilly: No, Emmitt, you don’t understand. I’m taping a commercial for DirecTV. If DirecTV likes it, they’re going to use it and they’ll pay me lots of money so I can buy Sam Bradford posters and rookie cards!

Wolfley: I’LL TELL YOU WHAT, KEVIN, THAT COMMERCIAL REMINDS ME OF A HAMSTER GIVING BIRTH TO A CHIHUAHUA. OR MAYBE A RACCOON TRYING TO CROSS THE INTERSTATE FIVE TIMES IN A ROW WHILE HAVING A LITTLE SAUCE ON THE BOYS.

Millen: Did you just say “sauce on the boys,” Wolf? This gives me a great idea. I’m going to buy some sauce at the grocery store and put them on my boys. Not just my manhood, mind you, but my actual boys – the 100-percent USDA Men I have tied up in my hotel room right now. I’ll also put sauce on my kielbasas and put the rest of the sauce into their backsides so the kielbasas slide in and out much smoother.

Tollefson: Millen, you are a disgusting piece of s***. I don’t even have the energy to say anything else. I was thinking about forcing the naked women I have chained up in my basement to put sauce on my boys when I get home, but now I’m not even in the mood at all.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by mood! Sometimes you’re happy, which means you’re in a happy mood. Sometimes you’re sad, which means you’re in a sad mood. Sometimes you’re funny, which means you’re in a funny mood. Sometimes you’re grumpy which means you’re in… uhh… I forget what mood that is, but let’s do process by elimination. If you’re grumpy, you’re not in a happy mood. You’re not in a funny mood either. Because grumpy and funny are opposites, which means they are antonyms. Antonym is the opposite of synonym. And it has nothing to do with homonym, nor does its opposite, synonym!

Herm: GRUMPY MOOD! THE MOOD YOU’RE LOOKING FOR IS GRUMPY! THE MOOD YOU’RE TRYING TO FIND IS GRUMPY! THE MOOD YOU’RE SCOURING YOUR BRAIN FOR IS GRUMPY! THE MOOD YOU’RE THINKING OF IS GRUMPY! NOT FUNNY! NOT HAPPY! NOT SAD! NOT FUNNY! HERM SAID FUNNY TWICE, BUT IT WAS INTENTIONAL! I DID IT ON PURPOSE! I MEANT TO DO IT! I WANTED TO DO IT! I HAD TO DO IT! HAD TO PROVE MY POINT! NEEDED TO PROVE MY POINT! WANTED TO PROVE MY POINT! IMPERATIVE TO PROVE MY POINT! AND MY POINT IS… uhh… GUYS, WHAT’S MY POINT? HERM FORGOT HIS POINT! HERM’S NOT ON POINT! HERM’S STRUGGLING TO FIND THE POINT! WHERE’S THE POINT!? WHAT’S THE POINT!? HERM NEEDS TO THINK ABOUT WHAT THE POINT IS! Herm… uhh…

Reilly: Herm, one day I’m going to sneak into your room and suffocate you, I swear to God, a.k.a. Randall Cunningham.

Charles Davis: Did you know there are many gods besides Randall Cunningham, Kevin? Let’s start off with our God, Kevin. But let’s move on because you knew that, Kevin. What about the Greek Gods, Kevin? Can you name them all, Kevin? It begins with Zeus, Kevin. Not only is he the leader of the gods, but he’s also the god of lightning and thunder, Kevin. How about Poseidon, Kevin? You might enjoy him, Kevin. He’s the god of the sea, Kevin. Let’s discuss Hera, Kevin. She’s the goddess of women, Kevin. Matt Millen doesn’t like them, Kevin. Let’s take a look at Hermes, Kevin. I think you’ll like him best, Kevin. Do you know what he’s the god of Kevin? Oh, you give up already, Kevin? How about the god of commerce and travel, Kevin?

Reilly: How did you know Hermes was my fav… never mind, I hate you Charles Davis! You and Herm will be destroyed soon enough – right after DirecTV pays me, of course! We’ll be back after this!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Much has been made of Andrew Luck’s disappointing debut at Buffalo, but it was sort of predictable. I had Luck listed pretty low in my weekly fantasy rankings because the Bills’ defense is just that damn good. The pass rush smothered Luck, who didn’t have anywhere to throw the ball, thanks to the Bills’ great secondary. Meanwhile, Frank Gore had zero running room, placing Luck in unfavorable down-and-distance situations all afternoon.

The Jets will treat Gore similarly. They have a stout defensive line, led by Muhammad Wilkerson and Snacks Harrison, who will bottle up Gore. The Colts just don’t have the talent on the offensive line to overcome this.

Luck, however, will have a better performance, even if T.Y. Hilton misses this game with a knee bruise. First of all, he’s at home, where he has played much better throughout his young career. Second, the Jets aren’t nearly as strong versus the pass as the Bills are. Their pass rush is lacking, while Antonio Cromartie’s absence in the secondary could hurt. Sure, Darrelle Revis is still there, but as I suspected, he wasn’t dominant in the opener. Revis, who also struggled in the preseason, took the money and ran back to a terrible team, so his All-Pro days could be finished.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I think Ryan Fitzpatrick’s All-Pro days could be over, too. In all seriousness, I didn’t think Fitzpatrick was terrible in the opener, but he was definitely bailed out by Brandon Marshall on that post-interception theft play. Fitzpatrick didn’t have to play from behind, but asking him to battle Luck in a potential shootout doesn’t seem fair, given his lacking talent level.

Because Fitzpatrick in a shootout doesn’t sound like a very good idea, what the Jets will need to do is run the ball effectively, control the clock, and keep Luck off the field. The Colts struggled versus the rush in the opener, but things could be different this time around. While I like Chris Ivory, Indianapolis will actually be able to focus on stopping him. That didn’t work out so well in the opener because Tyrod Taylor was way better than the Colts expected him to be. They know Fitzpatrick quite well, however, from his days in Tennessee. Vontae Davis will take away Marshall, leaving Fitzpatrick with barely anyone to throw to, which will allow Indianapolis to clamp down on Ivory.

RECAP: I began the week discussing Week 1 overreaction, so might as well end it that way. Thanks to the Colts’ loss and the Jets’ win, this spread has dropped from -9.5 a week ago to -7 now. That’s great value, especially given that we’ve hit the key number of seven, and I’d actually lock it in, since this spread might rise to -7.5.

That’s one reason I absolutely love Indianapolis this week. Some others have to do with Luck. Betting the Colts under Luck has nearly been a lock; they are 13-1 against the spread following a defeat ever since he’s joined the organization. That’s unreal. Nearly as good is Indianapolis’ mark of 19-6 ATS at home with Luck at quarterback.

The Colts are at their best whenever they need to bounce back against a weak foe. The Jets definitely fit that description, despite their 31-10 victory in Week 1. Johnny Manziel won’t be around this time to gift-wrap a win for them with dumb turnovers. Taking on Luck is a completely different animal, and he’ll be desperate to keep his team from beginning the year with an 0-2 record.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m shocked this spread has fallen; I thought that it would rise, for sure. Regardless, I still love the Colts, though I wish I could be getting -6. It reminds me of yesterday, when the line inexplicably moved toward the Eagles despite Dallas being the right side.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

I have to believe the Colts will be at their best to avoid an 0-2 start.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

A good chunk of the action on the Colts, but not an overwhelming amount.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 76% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Jets are 9-3 ATS as underdogs of 7+ since 2010.

Andrew Luck is 13-1 ATS off a loss.

Andrew Luck is 19-6 ATS at home.

Chuck Pagano is 3-0 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Colts -6.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Colts 34, Jets 17
Colts -7 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Over 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Survivor Pick (1-0) – NFL Survivor Pick Advice — Ugh
Jets 20, Colts 7

Week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games
Denver at Kansas City, Houston at Carolina, San Francisco at Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay at New Orleans, Detroit at Minnesota, Arizona at Chicago, New England at Buffalo, San Diego at Cincinnati, Tennessee at Cleveland, Atlanta at New York Giants, St. Louis at Washington

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Steelers -0.5, Colts -1 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110

Moneyline: Cowboys +180 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$90

Moneyline: Seahawks +160 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)