NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2014): 9-4 (-$90)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2014): 7-8 (+$100)

NFL Picks (2014): 96-90-6 (+$245)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 1, 6:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games

Chicago Bears (5-6) at Detroit Lions (7-4)
Line: Lions by 7. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Lions -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -7.5.
Thursday, Nov. 27, 12:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Lions.

Chris Berman will try to say this before me, but let me be the first to wish you a happy Thanksgiving. Also, let me be the first to wish you a merry Christmas, happy Valentine’s and joyous Flag Day. And while I’m at it, Happy Thanksgiving 2015. And 2016, 2017 and 2018. Ha! Take that, Boom!

For the second year in a row, I’m going to my girlfriend’s parents’ house for Thanksgiving. This is quite the change of pace I had from when I was single. Back then, I’d watch half the Detroit games until the Lions were getting demolished, and then I’d go to BestBuy.com and Amazon.com to begin my Christmas shopping.

If you’ve been reading my site for a while, you know that I purchased a PS3 on Thanksgiving 2010, and you’re also aware that I hadn’t opened it for at least three years. I never did so because I was just too buy to play video games, and I was also too lazy to connect the damn thing. Eventually, I completely forgot about it.

My girlfriend was cleaning out the basement one September afternoon when she spotted a cardboard box, and to her surprise, she found a PS3 upon opening it.

Girlfriend: Did you know you had a PS3 in your basement?

Me: Oh yeah, I completely forgot about that.

Girlfriend: Why don’t you hook it up?

Me: Meh. Too lazy.

Girlfriend: We can watch Netflix on it though.

Me: Netflix!? We can have Netflix!?

After almost four years, I finally hooked up my PS3. In honor of this, I went to the local GameStop a couple of months ago and bought a few video games, including last year’s Madden. Naturally, I haven’t played them yet. Perhaps I will in another four years.

At any rate, Happy Thanksgiving! I’ll try my best to get all of my football picks up before Wednesday evening for those of you who have to fill out your pools.

DETROIT OFFENSE: For all of the Lions’ firepower, it’s remarkable that they’re averaging just 17.9 points per game this season. They’ve scored a combined 15 points in their previous two outings, and aside from Week 1, they haven’t topped 24 in any contest this year.

Having said that, it’s reasonable to expect the Lions to finally get on track in this contest. That’s because they’ll be facing an abysmal Chicago defense that will likely be without top corner Kyle Fuller. Calvin Johnson, who has gone up against Brent Grimes, Patrick Peterson and Brandon Browner since his return from injury, will finally have an easy matchup. Megatron will take full advantage of it, as will Golden Tate.

The one hope the Bears have of stopping the Lions is to put as much pressure on Matthew Stafford as possible. Their pass rush has come alive lately – they mustered five sacks on the Buccaneers last week – but that may not even be enough, considering the mismatch the Lions have with Chicago’s putrid back seven, which might also be missing Lance Briggs.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Like the Lions, the Bears have had a disappointing offense. Jay Cutler has underperformed; he’s been responsible for way too many careless turnovers this year, and his accuracy issues in last week’s game had the Chicago faithful booing him off the field.

The thing is, Cutler was facing a defense that isn’t very good. The Lions, on the other hand, have a strong stop unit. They looked completely helpless against Tom Brady, but who hasn’t recently? They’re still extremely forceful up front, and they should be able to contain Matt Forte’s runs and get pressure on Cutler, abusing a shaky Chicago offensive line.

Like the Lions, the Bears have weapons at the skill positions who can win their matchups. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Forte are all awesome, but Cutler just hasn’t been getting the football to them. The Lions, despite last week’s blowout, are still ninth against the pass in terms of YPA (6.82), so I like their chances on this side of the ball.

RECAP: The Lions are one of my top plays of the week. Here’s why:

1. This is a big game for Detroit, as it’ll need the divisional victories – plus a win at Lambeau – to catch the Packers. With a meaningless game versus Tampa in 10 days, the Lions have nothing to look forward to.

2. Having this game on a Thursday benefits the Lions, as the better/more-prepared team generally prevails on shorter rest. That’s why Detroit has always had a dismal record on Thanksgiving until recently. The Lions, prior to 2013, have always been the inferior squad. They slaughtered the Matt Flynn-led Packers last year, and they should have similar success against the Bears.

3. Since 2010, Detroit is 6-1-1 against the spread versus Chicago. The Lions won last year’s matchup at Ford Field, 40-32, as they led by the score of 37-16 heading into the fourth quarter before some garbage-time points from Cutler.

4. Here’s a cool trend: Teams with winning records, playing at home coming off two consecutive road losses are 49-29 ATS, dating back to 1989. This dynamic is 4-1 ATS over the past three seasons.

I’m taking the Lions for four units, as this game shouldn’t be competitive. I’m going to lock it in, too. The spread could always drop, but the sharps are not taking Chicago, so I think there’s more of a chance that it hits -7.5 than drops back down to -6.5.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Wednesday, and I’ll do so earlier than usual for those who have to submit their picks early because of the holiday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kyle Fuller is active, but he hasn’t been able to finish games, so having him leave could really hurt the Bears. Unfortunately, the big injury news is that left tackle Riley Reiff is out. Reggie Bush will also be missing, but Reiff is the bigger story. Chicago could get a good amount of pressure on Matthew Stafford. Having said that, the Bears are garbage, so I still like the Lions, but not as much at -7 -120/-7.5, as it’s currently posted. I’d drop that to 2-3 units. If you wanted to bet Detroit, I hope you locked it in at -7.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
A slight amount of action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 64% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

History: Bears have won 14 of the last 19 meetings.

Bears are 31-20 ATS in November since 2001.

Jay Cutler is 35-63 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Lions are 12-3 ATS after losing by 20+ points since 2007.

Lions are 2-8 ATS as a Thanksgiving host since 2002.

Lions are 12-25 ATS against losing teams the previous 37 instances.

Opening Line: Lions -6.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Lions 34, Bears 20
Lions -7 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Lions 34, Bears 17

Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 55.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cowboys -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -4.5.
Thursday, Nov. 27, 4:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

WEEK 12 RECAP: You have no idea how depressed I was when the Broncos scored a touchdown for what appeared to be a front-door cover against the Dolphins. I don’t know what I would’ve done if I lost 9.9 units because two underdogs I picked each blew double-digit leads. I already got screwed over with the Buccaneers, who outgained the Bears and averaged more yards per play, yet managed to lose by eight, so I may have quit if the Dolphins didn’t cover. OK, I wouldn’t have quit, but I would have at least had the urge to. Handicapping two games perfectly and losing tons of money on both would’ve been just too much.

Fortunately, the Dolphins rightfully covered, giving me a winning week. I was at +$430 heading into Monday night, but two losses dropped me to +$100.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles are typically lauded for their offensive ability, as the media is too clueless to look beyond how many points a team scores in a game. One fantasy news aggregator even called Chip Kelly an “offensive god,” which was a complete joke. Perhaps Kelly is a fantasy god, thanks to the absurd amount of plays he runs, but he is anything but an offensive god. His scoring unit is just 19th in efficiency, as it sputters too often. The Eagles hit big plays, but they don’t move the chains consistently, and they turn the ball over way too much.

Mark Sanchez has especially been a disaster. Again, the fantasy numbers are lovely – he helped me win a cool $50 on FanDuel in Week 11 – but he’s responsible for way too many interceptions. He’s been extremely careless with the football in three of his starts, and two have come against the hapless Panthers and Titans. He single-handedly kept Tennessee in the game last week with his mistakes.

The Cowboys have a pretty opportunistic defense, ranking in the top half in take-aways, so they’ll turn Sanchez over a couple of times. The Eagles can try to prevent this from happening by feeding the ball to LeSean McCoy early and often. McCoy has struggled this season, but seemed to get on track last week. That’s perfect timing, as the Cowboys have one of the worst ground defenses in the NFL.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Eagles have actually been better on this side of the ball. That could change though, as the injuries they’ve incurred at linebacker are starting to add up. They lost DeMeco Ryans already, and now they’ll be without Emmanuel Acho, who injured his groin last week. Delanie Walker was able to abuse Philadelphia’s stop unit as a consequence, and Jason Witten could have similar success.

Of course, Tony Romo could just air the ball out to Dez Bryant, who has a very easy matchup against Philadelphia’s beleaguered corners. Romo is well protected by his elite offensive line, so he’ll have time to dissect the Eagles’ secondary.

The strength of Philadelphia’s defense is up front, as the Eagles handle the run extremely well. However, containing DeMarco Murray is difficult, given his talent and the massive holes he gets to burst through. With Philadelphia preoccupied with stopping Bryant and Witten, Murray could have extra room.

RECAP: This spread is -3 (with juice), but it’s expected to hit -3.5 soon, which is close to where I have it (-4.5). The Cowboys are the better team, but they are prone to mistakes, and if there’s one thing the Eagles do well, it’s that they capitalize off of errors with turnovers and great special-teams plays. Philadelphia will probably be out-played, but another fluky touchdown or two could swing this game in their favor. I’m taking the Cowboys, but not with any sort of conviction.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is now up to -3 -130. I think the Cowboys are the right side, but it’s close. This line sucks though, as I have no interest in laying -130 juice or biting the bullet and taking the hook. I have more interest in betting the third game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 58% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Cowboys have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

The underdog is 50-22 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 8-4 ATS as a Thanksgiving host since 2001.

Cowboys are 5-16 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Cowboys 38, Eagles 34
Cowboys -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 55.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 33, Cowboys 10

Seattle Seahawks (7-4) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
Line: 49ers by 1. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : 49ers -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -2.5.
Thursday, Nov. 27, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

WEEK 13 BETTING TRENDS: I’ve identified poisonous teams that I would never bet on to save me from some bad picks. Here’s the list. It’s the same as last week:

Poisonous Teams:
Raiders
Jaguars
Titans
Buccaneers (home only)

I’m considering adding the Giants to the list. They covered against the Cowboys, but they nearly blew it despite playing in their “Super Bowl.” Their losses against the Seahawks and 49ers were disgusting as well.

Ten weeks ago, I discussed point value in terms of the Las Vegas Hilton advance spread. That dynamic was 22-14 against the spread since Week 2 entering last weekend. Here’s how it fared in Week 12:

Before Week 11	After Week 11	ATS Result
Vikings +7	Vikings +9	Cover
Redskins +7.5	Redskins +10	Cover
Saints -6	Saints -3	No cover

It was 2-1. This dynamic is now a solid 24-15 ATS this season. Here are this week’s value lines (movements of two or more without serious injuries):

Before Week 12	After Week 12
Falcons PK	Falcons +2.5
Chargers +3.5	Chargers +5.5

Only two games apply. I’m not sure what’s happening with Arizona-Atlanta because both teams lost, but the Baltimore-San Diego movement is an obvious overreaction.

80-20 RULE: I’ve mentioned the 80-20 rule before. It basically states that betting against teams getting at least 80 percent of the action is a winning proposition. It makes a lot of sense too, as Vegas is not going to consistently lose money. The house will profit during the long run, so fading highly bet teams is usually what you want to do.

How profitable has it been though? Fortunately, I didn’t have to do all of the research. Forum member Blazedestin ran the numbers himself and posted them on his Web site. This surprised me:

Since 2013, teams getting at least 80 percent of the action are 33-36-1 against the spread.

How could this be? Weren’t 80-20 teams automatic fades? Well, it makes sense once digging deeper:

Teams getting 80-84 percent of the action, past two seasons: 23-16-1 ATS.
Teams getting 85-plus percent of the action, past two seasons: 10-21-1*# ATS.

*The Packers were the only team that violated the 85-percent rule last week.

#The Broncos are 3-1 ATS when getting 85 percent or more, so if you exclude them, this dynamic is 7-20-1 ATS in the past two seasons.

This just goes to show you that it’s not always dangerous to wager on highly bet teams – just be careful if those teams are seeing an absurd amount of money flow their way.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson talked about getting his swagger back after last week’s victory over Arizona. I’m pretty sure what “swagger” means, but how does Wilson figure that he and his teammates have re-acquired it? Wilson was sacked a whopping seven times by the Cardinals, as his entire offensive line, save for Russell Okung, had trouble blocking. Wilson’s own 12th Man actually booed his team whenever they sputtered in the red zone – and they did so constantly. I don’t see how that qualifies as swagger.

Wilson will have similar issues this Sunday. The 49ers just sacked the elusive Robert Griffin five times this past Sunday, as their pass rush has improved ever since getting Aldon Smith back from injury. Wilson will have to scramble often, and he’ll pick up several first downs while doing so, but he may once again have issues in the red zone.

While the 49ers have gained Smith, the Seahawks have lost Max Unger, which has been huge. Unger not only has been missed in pass protection, but his absence has impacted the running game as well. Marshawn Lynch hasn’t pounded the ball nearly as well without Unger, and he may have issues once again in this contest, given that the 49ers are pretty solid against the run.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Though the 49ers have been missing players on defense, their stop unit hasn’t been the issue this year. Colin Kaepernick has been inconsistent, while Vernon Davis has absolutely been dogging it. Davis has mailed it in because he didn’t receive a new contract this past offseason, which is completely stupid on his part because doing so has most definitely cost him money in the future. Davis has always been Kaepernick’s favorite target, so that would explain the quarterback’s troubles this year.

Things won’t get any easier for Kaepernick against the Legion of Boom. Granted, Richard Sherman and company haven’t been playing as well this year because they’re getting no help from their pass rush, but they should be able to handle the 49ers’ weapons. Anquan Boldin is playing well, but Davis sucks, while Michael Crabtree has been dreadful in most of his outings.

The 49ers might be able to run the ball on the Seahawks, however. Seattle is ninth against the rush (3.81 YPC), but Brandon Mebane’s absence has been huge. The Chiefs generated 191 yards on the ground two weeks ago in Mebane’s first game out. The Seahawks limited the Cardinals to just 41 rushing yards this past Sunday, thanks in part to Bobby Wagner’s return, but Andre Ellington has averaged 3.3 yards per carry in 2014, so maybe that’s not too impressive.

RECAP: I’m going against the swagger and picking the 49ers. The Seahawks don’t have swagger on the road, as you can tell by the trends below. That’s one reason I’m taking San Francisco. The other is that this spread should be closer to a field goal than it is right now. I was hoping for a better number than this, and I really wanted the public to pound Seattle, but I still like the 49ers enough to wager two units on them.

Again, Week 13 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. I’ll announce via Twitter @walterfootball when each selection is posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp money on the 49ers. They’ve been bet up from -1 to -2 at some books, though it’s still -1 at Bovada. It’s telling that Pinnacle is one of the places where it’s -2, so they’re leaning San Francisco. I still like the 49ers for two units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 56% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: Home Team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings.

Seahawks are 22-35 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

49ers are 37-19 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Opening Line: 49ers -1.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: 49ers 17, Seahawks 13
49ers -1 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 19, 49ers 3

Washington Redskins (3-8) at Indianapolis Colts (7-4)
Line: Colts by 10. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Colts -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -8.
Sunday, Nov. 30, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Colts.

VEGAS UPDATE: Vegas had its worst Sunday of the season in Week 10, so it had to win some of its money back. It did so slightly in Week 11, but it raked in the cash this past weekend. Of the seven highly bet teams, only two (Patriots, Colts) covered. The house won with the Raiders, Vikings, Dolpins, Redskins and especially the Giants.

With a strong week, no oddsmakers will be disappearing into the desert anytime soon. I may, however, if I continue to suffer through bad beats like in that Tampa-Chicago game.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts covered last week, but it was a struggle, as they scored just three points in the first half. A big reason for their scoring issues was all of the pressure Andrew Luck endured. Luck was constantly under siege, leading to a pair of lost fumbles. The Jaguars’ pass rush is for real, and they were able to smother Luck, who didn’t have right tackle Gosder Cherilus blocking for him.

The Redskins can also bring heat. They’re tied for ninth in the NFL with 28 sacks. The good news for the Colts is that Cherilus will be back in the lineup. The bad news, however, is that guard Hugh Thornton is now out. Thornton isn’t very good, but he’s a million times better than his replacement, Lance Louis, who was abused this past week when he was thrust into action. It’ll be key for the Redskins to get as much pressure on Luck as possible because the All-Pro signal-caller will easily abuse Washington’s secondary if he gets time in the pocket.

Luck can at least lean on a running back now in Dan Herron, who was surprisingly effective in Ahmad Bradshaw’s absence. Herron was solid against the Jaguars, but faces a much tougher test this week, given that the Redskins are sixth against the run (3.64 YPC).

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The big news is that Robert Griffin has been benched in favor of Colt McCoy. Hilariously, the spread didn’t move an inch. Griffin was absolute trash, missing receivers deep and taking too many sacks. Perhaps he’ll improve in the future, but he doesn’t care to study film or improve his game, so unless his attitude changes, he’ll be a bust.

Colt McCoy isn’t nearly as physically gifted as Griffin (duh), but he’s more accurate, and he’s a better fit for Jay Gruden’s offense. The players like giving their all for him too. I remember hearing one of his teammates yell, “that’s heart!” when he sprinted into the end zone for a touchdown while taking a tough hit against the Cowboys. McCoy, unlike Griffin, is not a douche, and the other Redskins actually like him. That goes a long way, as McCoy’s teammates will give a little something extra.

The Redskins do lose some of their running ability with Griffin sidelined, as their opponent can pay more attention to Alfred Morris. However, the Colts are just 25th against the rush in terms of YPC, so they may have trouble containing Morris regardless.

RECAP: I was ready to pick the Colts when Griffin was the starter, but McCoy changes things. This is not an important game for Indianapolis, but I had a feeling that Luck would have wanted to show up Griffin, since they went one-two in the same draft class. With McCoy out of the lineup, however, where is the motivation? Indianapolis is not in danger of winning the division, yet it doesn’t have much of a chance to secure a bye – they’d have to win two more games than Denver in the next five weeks – so the team is kind of in limbo.

Meanwhile, Washington is in a good spot, as teams in their second-consecutive road game tend to cover, especially as underdogs off a loss. This spread is slightly too high (I have it at -8), and the Redskins, who have lost only two games by more than 11 points, will play with much more enthusiasm in the wake of McCoy getting the nod.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Redskins. The spread has gone down to +9.5 in many books, but Bovada is currently offering +10, so I’m going to lock that in. The sharps are taking Washington, so this line could continue to drop.

SUNDAY NOTES: I hope you were able to lock this in at +10 because the sharps have pounded the Redskins down to +8 or +8.5. I like Washington for two units at those numbers.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

This game doesn’t mean anything to the Colts. They’re two up in the division, but two back of a bye (tie-breakers included). The Redskins, meanwhile, have to love that the hated Robert Griffin has been benched.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Tons of money on the Colts, as predicted.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 81% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Andrew Luck is 17-6 ATS at home (only 2-2 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Colts -9.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Colts 23, Redskins 17
Redskins +10 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 49, Redskins 27

Tennessee Titans (2-9) at Houston Texans (5-6)
Line: Texans by 7. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Texans -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -8.5.
Sunday, Nov. 30, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Texans.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. Some are from the comment boards below, while others are from the NFL Power Rankings:

Stop being a little Bi*ch. If you didn’t suck at what you do so bad, you wouldn’t be having heart attacks and crying about it so much. Man up…

The doctor actually said my heart attacks were from eating too many cheeseburgers and cheese fries; he didn’t say anything about my sucky handicapping as the cause.

Cardinals are a top 10 team w/o Palmer. You forget they went 2-1 with Stanton. And the loss was to Denver, in a game where Stanton kept us closer than most all other teams whove played Denver. Cardinals have an OK offense W/ Stanton. And a still-elite Defense. To say “you lost your starting QB, therefore you now suck” is shortsighted.

Since when does being the No. 14 team mean that you “suck?” I feel like you wouldn’t be so defensive if, deep down inside, you didn’t agree with me.

Sorry, but these Power Rankings have gotten to the point of being unreadable. Walt doesn’t offer any comments for teams 11-20, which is really just a total cop-out. For everyone else, he uses this as an opportunity to promote his awful attempts at humor, instead of providing actual insight. His rankings differ greatly from everyone else’s – which in itself is FINE – but he’s not giving us really any reason for it. I only complain because I know Walt is capable of doing way better, but he’s totally mailed it in on the Power rankings.

Both my mom and my sister said I have great humor, so yes, that’s why I’m promoting it here.

Walt feels he has to explain why the Saints aren’t in his top 10, lol.

Vegas had them 8th last week, so yeah, I kinda do have to for the people who make a living betting on NFL games.

It’s almost as if Walt has a dartboard with all 32 teams on it and some numbered arrows: power rankings sans logic. Your argument about the Saints applies to the Miami Dolphins as well, so why are they 15 to the Saints 8?

Uhh… I already said I determine my rankings via dart board. Where have you been?

Is Walt gonna punish the Colts for struggling against the Jags then coming back and scoring a bunch of points unanswered? It was what, 11 weeks he said he wouldn’t rank the Eagles high because they didn’t start the game well against the Jags. Lemme guess, Luck’s Colts get a pass and stay in the top 5? Walt you get criticized not because your rankings don’t follow records in sequence, but because your criteria is very hypocritical and schizophrenic. You apply one thing to discredit a team, but then the same exact thing does not apply to discredit the other team.

Are you intentionally posting a derp dee derp post? When were the Colts down 17-0 to the Jags? And did the Jags suddenly play Chad Henne when I wasn’t looking? Try again. Next time, don’t be so biased, and you might actually have a good post.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: “Who gonna give Ryan Mallett a MRI!?” Ah, poor Mallett. He waited so long for his chance, and he was pretty decent in his debut, but playing with a torn pectoral ruined his chances this past week. The Texans now have to turn back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, so I feel sorry for the Houston fans as well.

Fitzpatrick is the epitome of mediocre, but he doesn’t have much of a challenge against the Titans. He’s been turnover-free in just three games this year, one of which was a Week 8 meeting at Tennessee when he threw for 227 yards and a touchdown on 19-of-35 passing. Tennessee’s secondary is crap, so Fitzpatrick should have another economical outing.

Of course, Arian Foster will be the star for the Texans if he’s cleared for this game. Foster has missed the past two contests with a groin injury, but Bill O’Brien said Monday that Foster “could play” in this game. The Titans have an atrocious run defense that can’t stop anyone; they’ve surrendered an average of 179.3 rushing yards to their previous four opponents, which is a ridiculous figure. Alfred Blue could even perform like a Pro Bowler if Foster sits out again.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Jadeveon Clowney started his second game last week, but he didn’t do anything. He looked sluggish, applying zero pressure on the quarterback. In fact, J.J. Watt was the only Texan to consistently get heat on Andy Dalton. Clowney is too talented not to improve, but perhaps he’s just playing injured.

Unless Clowney can help Watt swarm the quarterback, Zach Mettenberger could have a decent performance. Mettenberger struggled in his first start against the Texans, but he has improved a bit since. Houston has injury issues in its secondary, and Andy Dalton was able to look like an All-Pro quarterback last week as a result, so Mettenberger could be OK.

The Texans do at least handle tight ends well, which is not good news for Mettenberger, considering that he loves targeting Delanie Walker. I also doubt Tennessee will get much of a ground attack going, as Bishop Sankey is just an average runner.

RECAP: The Titans, like the Redskins, are playing their second-consecutive road game in an underdog role following a loss. Teams have a high covering rate in that sort of spot, but I can’t wager on Tennessee because the team is poisonous. Plus, I don’t think this spread is as high as it should be.

I’m just picking the Titans and staying away, betting-wise.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is one of the games I don’t really have an opinion about. I even considered changing my pick to the Texans. I’ll stick with my initial choice, but I wouldn’t even consider touching this contest.

SUNDAY NOTES: This number dropped to +6.5 in some books. Some professional bettors are taking the Titans.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Texans have to be deflated that they lost Ryan Mallett for the year and have to go back to Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

A good amount of action on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 70% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Texans have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -6.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Titans 16
Titans +7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 45, Titans 21

Cleveland Browns (7-4) at Buffalo Bills (6-5)
Line: Bills by 3. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bills -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -1.
Sunday, Nov. 30, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Bills.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. It’s not too late to enter, so sign up soon!

Also, you can make your own NFL Power Rankings here.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’s difficult to gauge how Browns’ fans should feel about their offense right now. On one hand, Josh Gordon dominated in his first game back. While Kyle Rudolph and Marcedes Lewis barely did anything when they returned from their injuries, Gordon was an absolute monster. Jordan Cameron possibly returning only makes things better. On the other hand, Brian Hoyer’s play has dropped off of late. He would have single-handedly lost last week’s game had Mike Smith not derped up clock management.

Hoyer has struggled the past two weeks, and yet he hasn’t played tough defenses. That’ll change this week, as the Bills have the most sacks in the NFL. The Browns can’t block as well without Alex Mack, so while Mario Williams dominated in the victory over the Jets, perhaps it’ll be the two interior lineman who control the game this time.

The Bills also put the clamps on the run pretty well, ranking eighth against it in terms of YPC (3.79). The Cleveland backs just rushed for 162 yards against Atlanta’s woeful stop unit, but neither Isaiah Crowell nor Terrance West will have as much success in this contest.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: While the Bills have a forceful defense, but the Browns’ stop unit is regressing because of injuries. Karlos Dansby, perhaps the team’s top defender, is out with a knee injury. Meanwhile, safety Tashaun Gipson, who led the NFL in interceptions heading into last weekend, is done for the season.

The Bills have a shaky scoring attack, but they should have success moving the ball on Cleveland considering the two major injuries. The Browns are 24th against the run, as they are just two weeks removed from surrendering 210 yards on the ground to the Arian Foster-less Texans. Fred Jackson is getting healthier each week, so he should be able to have a solid outing.

Having Jackson run effectively will make things easier for Kyle Orton. He’ll need some help, as Sammy Watkins has the misfortune of going up against Joe Haden, who struggled at the beginning of the year but has since improved his play. Orton will at least have some time in the pocket; the Browns sport a pass rush that is just mediocre.

RECAP: This is a tough spot for both teams. The Browns are coming off an emotional victory, and they’ll have to take on the Colts as home underdogs next week. Meanwhile, the Bills have the unenviable task of slowing down Peyton Manning at Mile High in Week 14. This spread is also around where it’s supposed to be.

I’m taking the Bills because they play better at home, and the Browns are a bit of a fraud at 7-4, but I’m not confident about this selection at all.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have taken the Bills so much that this spread is looking like it’ll eclipse -3 across the board. It’s -3.5 at Pinnacle and Bovada. I like Buffalo, but not enough to bet on it.

SUNDAY NOTES: Justin Gilbert is out for the Browns, which hurts because he has played well after a slow start. I considered putting a unit on the Bills, but I’ll keep this as a non-bet.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

The Browns could be looking ahead to their two games against the Colts and Bengals. They’re also coming off an emotional win at Atlanta. The Bills, meanwhile, have Denver next week.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 56% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 26-15 ATS in November home games the previous 41 contests.

True home teams are 18-9 ATS in the last 27 Bills games.

Bills are 14-26 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Bills -2.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Bills 24, Browns 20
Bills -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 26, Browns 10

San Diego Chargers (7-4) at Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
Line: Ravens by 6.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Ravens -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -4.
Sunday, Nov. 30, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Ravens.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I’ve been asked why I haven’t begun compiling a Ray Lewis anthology like I did for Emmitt Smith. Lewis has been Emmitt 2.0, as ESPN inexplicably hired yet another former athlete who has no grasp of the English language. For instance, Lewis said the following two things recently:

“DeMarcus Murray what he does in his hands is the reason why the Dallas Cowboys was win. DeMarcus Murray is the bellcow in the Dallas… uhh… uhh… locker room right now.”

“The Browns have a savvy offense – Mile Austin in the mix!”

DeMarcus Murray? Mile Austin? Who are these people? Was Miles Austin the plural of Mile Austin all along?

I would make more fun of Lewis, but unlike Emmitt, he actually (allegedly lol) killed someone, so I wouldn’t want to (allegedly lol) be the second person on his hit list.

2. Speaking of former players who can’t speak English, I found this amusing e-mail a while ago that I hadn’t posted yet:

Heard this gem from Michael Irvin on a radio pregame show: “If you axe players they will tell you that it’s tough to play when weather is an increment.” My wife pointed out: “It’s even tougher to play when weather is an excrement.”

3. One more point on NFL Network: I work late, so I’m seldom up early in the morning. I think I may need to change that though. That’s because I recently discovered that this is available on NFL AM, a show I’ve never seen before (thanks, Conrad). I have just two words:

Hello, nurse!

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: It’s a good thing the Chargers played the Rams before this contest because they were able to straighten things out with their poor offensive line. Philip Rivers, who is battling a rib injury, had been pummeled prior to the St. Louis game because of awful protection. The line didn’t magically improve, but Rivers changed his approach, throwing short passes to counter all of the pressure he’s been seeing.

The Ravens have the same type of forceful front that the Rams do, as they were just able to harass Drew Brees. However, Baltimore’s secondary is questionable, so some of Rivers’ quick tosses to Keenan Allen, Branden Oliver, etc. will turn into big gains because the Ravens are being forced into using players such as Anthony Levne and Ladarius Webb, who isn’t completely healthy.

The Chargers shouldn’t count on running the ball though. The Ravens have possessed the NFL’s No. 1 run defense this month, limiting opposing backs to just 2.73 YPC. They haven’t even surrendered more than 70 rushing yards to an opponent since Week 6.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Speaking of teams with banged-up secondaries. The Chargers could really use Jason Verrett right now. The first-round rookie corner had been playing exceptional football prior to his season-ending injury. San Diego still has talented players like Brandon Flowers and Eric Weddle in its defensive backfield, but the Verrett injury has forced Shareece Wright into action. Wright is an abomination, and he was abused by the Rams last week. Whichever Smith he’s covering will go off.

Getting pressure on the quarterback is a good recipe for negating poor play in the secondary. Unfortunately for the Chargers, they can’t put heat on opposing signal-callers. They have just three sacks in their previous four games, which is a ridiculously low number. Joe Flacco is pretty well fortified – only three teams have surrendered fewer sacks than Baltimore’s 15 – so he’ll have all the time he needs to take advantage of San Diego’s liabilities.

The Chargers, at least, aren’t futile when it comes to stopping the run. They’re actually half-decent against it, ranking 12th in that department, limiting opposing backs to 3.99 YPC. Thus, Justin Forsett won’t nearly have as big of an outing as he enjoyed when he gashed the Saints’ 30th-ranked unit.

RECAP: I like the Chargers for a couple of units. We’re getting good line value with them, as this spread was +3.5 a week ago. I also think San Diego is a bit underrated because of public perception. People see close victories against the Raiders and Rams, yet Oakland knocked off the Chiefs last week, while St. Louis has beaten the Seahawks, 49ers and Broncos. The fact that the Chargers were able to pull out those games, especially the latter, is at least somewhat impressive.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going against the sharps on this one. They’ve bet up the Ravens, but this has created more spread value on the Chargers. I’d lock it in at +7.

SUNDAY NOTES: I was hoping for a +7, but it hasn’t reached there yet. You can get +6 -105 at Bovada, which I like better than +6.5.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
Slight action on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 63% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Ravens are 20-8 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Ravens are 21-10 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

Opening Line: Ravens -5.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Chargers 20
Chargers +6.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 34, Ravens 33

New York Giants (3-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Giants -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Giants -4.
Sunday, Nov. 30, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I need to quote my girlfriend more often pertaining to college football. I mentioned several weeks ago that upon hearing Matt Millen, she asked something like, “Isn’t that the guy who talks about wanting to bang football players?”

This past Saturday, I made her watch the end of the Florida State-Boston College game. I explained to her that the Seminoles were the defending national champions, but they had barely been beating mediocre teams all year. Florida State prevailed, but even she wasn’t impressed.

“Not that I’m being a dick, but they didn’t even score a touchdown. They just made a short kick.”

My thoughts, exactly. If people ignored records, this Florida State team would not be in the top four.

2. This wasn’t the best weekend for top football action. Florida State almost went down, but that was about it. The slate was so uneventful that Ross Tucker tweeted this around 3 p.m.:

Time to turn to “The Game” on @NBCSN if you aren’t already. Like now.

What? Was there a great game I didn’t know about? I eagerly flipped to NBC Sports Network and was disappointed to see that Tucker was referring to Harvard-Yale. And it’s not even like it was a tense moment. Harvard was up by three with 8:16 remaining and had the ball. I figured I’d catch a cool two-minute drive amid an incredible comeback, yet all I saw were inferior athletes who won’t be playing in the NFL.

I flipped back to one of the other blowouts. I saw no point in watching a meaningless game featuring almost no draft prospects. Besides, why would I want to support NBC? I’m not putting a single dime into Bob Costas’ wallet so that he can buy more expensive wine and think about how he’s going to save humanity.

3. Speaking of NBC, it’s time for another Rotoworld gaffe:

Wow, how great is the NCAA? It allowed the entire Penn State team to be draft-eligible this season. Hear that, crappy NFL teams without quarterbacks? You can draft Christian Hackenberg if you don’t like Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I’m with Bill Simmons in believing that the Giants effectively won last week. Sure, they added to the loss column in the standings, but that Odell Beckham “Go-Go-Gadget Arms!” touchdown reception will make everyone think that the Giants prevailed. They also covered, so that should count for something.

The truth, however, is that the Giants lost. With their season in the dumpster, they treated that game as if it was their Super Bowl, and they came up just a bit short. Thus, I don’t expect them to put together a sound game plan against the Jaguars. Assuming I’m right, I doubt Eli Manning will be prepared for Jacksonville’s pass rush. The Jaguars get to the quarterback extremely well, as they even gave Andrew Luck some problems last week. The Giants have injury issues on their offensive front, so the Jaguars should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball.

The Giants can counter this by establishing former Jaguar Rashad Jennings. Jacksonville has surrendered 5.33 yards per carry to the opposition during the past four weeks, so Jennings could have a big outing, which would make life easier for Manning.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: If the Jaguars had any semblance of an offense last week, they may have prevailed. Instead, Blake Bortles sucked once again and gave his team no chance to win. To be fair though, it didn’t help that his offensive line couldn’t block whatsoever. Bortles took four sacks in the 20-point loss.

Fortunately for Bortles, his next opponent doesn’t exactly specialize in swarming the quarterback. The Giants have accumulated only six sacks in the previous four weeks. There were even instances when Tony Romo had close to 10 seconds to find his receivers downfield this past Sunday night. It’ll be a miracle if Bortles has that same type of protection, even against a defense with just one consistent pass-rusher.

The Jaguars will at least be able to use their running game to keep the heat off Bortles. Denard Robinson had a disappointing outing last week, but he figures to rebound against a New York stop unit ranked just 31st in the NFL when it comes to containing the rush (5.05 YPC).

RECAP: If I had any faith in the Jaguars, this would be a multi-unit play. The Giants, who just lost their “Super Bowl,” won’t be focused on Jacksonville at all. Also, take a look at the betting action. The 85-15 rule applies, as Vegas stands to lose a ton of money if New York covers.

Unfortunately, I can’t bet on the Jaguars. They and teams of their ilk have been in tremendous spots before, and they’ve cost me because of their ineptitude.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public has bet up the Giants enough that I’m willing to take the Jaguars for a unit at +3. There is no reason this awful, unfocused New York team should be favored by a field goal on the road against anyone.

SUNDAY NOTES: Chad Millman mentioned to Colin Cowherd amid the porno music, and he was right. Both the sharps and public are on the Giants, which should tell you that the Jaguars are the right side because Vegas has such a liability on Jacksonville.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Giants are coming off a loss in their “Super Bowl,” so I can’t see them getting up for the Jaguars.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

No one’s betting the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on New York: 87% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Giants are 39-23 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Jaguars are 9-22 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Jaguars are 20-48 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Giants -1.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Jaguars 26, Giants 24
Jaguars +3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jaguars 25, Giants 24

Cincinnati Bengals (7-3-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-9)
Line: Bengals by 5.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bengals -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -3.5.
Sunday, Nov. 30, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Bengals.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Four years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for this past season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses.

Check out the new Spam Mails page here with my most recent responses.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton has been incredibly inconsistent this season, but he should be able to enjoy a quality outing in this game. That’s because he’ll be playing a team with only one potent pass-rusher and a secondary that isn’t very good against the pass. The Bengals lost Andre Smith permanently last week because of a torn tricep, but that won’t matter in terms of Dalton’s protection, given that all of Tampa’s heat comes from the inside with Gerald McCoy.

Dalton, consequently, will take advantage of a back seven that could be missing Lavonte David. The stud linebacker was absent in last week’s game with a hamstring. Even if he returns this week, he might not be 100 percent, since soft-tissue injuries tend to linger. Meanwhile, no one in Tampa’s secondary will be able to handle A.J. Green.

Dalton may not even need to throw all that much, as the Bengals could gash the Buccaneers on the ground. Tampa’s run defense isn’t horrific, by any means, but it’s below average. Jeremy Hill, who continues to get carries despite Giovani Bernard’s return, has been pounding the ball extremely well, and his excellent play should continue.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Josh McCown, on the other hand, shouldn’t expect to play well. McCown was an absolute mess last week. He made some nice plays to convert third downs, but his turnovers were back-breaking. He also took too many negative plays. All of this happened against the awful Chicago defense, so what will happen against a real stop unit?

Of course, the Bengals don’t have a good defense because they’ve had issues as well. They haven’t been able to get to the quarterback at all, as only the Raiders have recorded fewer sacks in the NFL this year. McCown wilts under pressure, but Cincinnati may not be able to get to him and capitalize on some of his careless decisions.

The Buccaneers will also have trouble running the ball. Cincinnati is just 22nd against ground attacks (4.31 YPC), but it has improved lately, limiting their previous two opponents to a combined 129 rushing yards on 40 carries. Stopping Mark Ingram and Alfred Blue isn’t that taxing, but they’re more dangerous runners than the declining Doug Martin and unproven Charlie Sims.

RECAP: This is the Breather Alert of all Breather Alerts, as the Bengals have the Steelers, Browns, Broncos and Steelers after this non-conference game. Having said that, Cincinnati could be the right side; road favorites in their third-consecutive road game tend to cover, while the Buccaneers are unbelievably atrocious at home. They’re just 11-31 against the spread as hosts in their previous 42 home affairs, which is just appalling.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s so much action on the Bengals, but the Buccaneers are so terrible at home. Something has to give. I’m not going to guess what that is.

SUNDAY NOTES: As with the Giants, the sharps and public are both on the Bengals. There’s too much of a liability on the Buccaneers, who are worth a look at +6.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

An obvious Breather Alert for the Bengals. They have the Steelers, Browns, Broncos and Steelers after this non-conference game.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

All of the money is on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 87% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Bengals are 20-36 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Marvin Lewis is 6-10 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog.

Road Team is 54-31 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 11-31 ATS at home in the previous 42 instances.

Buccaneers are 5-16 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Bengals -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Buccaneers 20
Bengals -5.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 14, Buccaneers 13

Oakland Raiders (1-10) at St. Louis Rams (4-7)
Line: Rams by 5.5. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Rams -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -8.5.
Sunday, Nov. 30, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Rams.

Video of the Week: Watching police chases is always fun, but this is the most hilarious one I’ve ever seen (thanks, Andrew B.):

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Rams should be 5-7 right now. The holding penalty on Tavon Austin was an absolute joke, though Shaun Hill still had a chance to lead his team to victory, or at least send the game into overtime. I have no idea what he was thinking on that interception, but it just illustrated how important it is to have a quality quarterback in this era of passing.

Hill won’t have much of a chance to screw up in this contest, as he’ll be facing a much softer defense. The Chargers are in the top 10 versus aerial attacks (in terms of YPA), while the Raiders have plenty of liabilities in the secondary. Kenny Britt has played well recently, while Stedman Bailey emerged as a viable option last week. I like their chances versus Oakland’s defensive backfield.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are in the middle of the pack in terms of containing the run, so Tre Mason should have a fairly decent outing. Mason has run well the past two weeks against defenses ranked in the top 12 versus the rush, so the explosive back could have another solid performance.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Speaking of explosive backs, Latavius Murray looked great in his four carries last Thursday. Unfortunately, he was limited to those four carries because he suffered a concussion. He figures to be back, but will have an extremely difficult test, as the Rams are 10th against the rush; they recently limited the Broncos to just 29 yards on the ground on nine carries!

The Rams are also proficient in terms of getting after the quarterback. They struggled early in that regard, but they’ve generated 16 sacks in their previous four games. They may not have the best matchup on paper, given that the Raiders have taken the fewest sacks in the NFL this year (tied with the Broncos with 12). However, that’s because Derek Carr throws so many checkdowns, which has generally led to a ton of punts. The Raiders have the least-efficient offense in the league for this reason.

RECAP: The Six and Six Rule applied at first glance (teams that finish with six or fewer wins usually don’t cover when favored by six or more), but if the Rams win this game, next week’s contest at Washington and their Week 16 battle at home versus the Giants, they’ll have seven victories. Wins in all of these games are possible, as is beating Arizona at home in Week 15. St. Louis could finish 7-9 or even 8-8.

Meanwhile, the Raiders could be looking past this game. That may seem bizarre, given their record, but they take on the 49ers next week. Oakland and San Francisco hate each other, and the fans have gotten so violent in those meetings that the NFL actually had to prevent these two teams from playing each other in the preseason. It’s insane.

The Rams, however, are not really a betting option. Laying a touchdown with such an offensively challenged team is not really a good idea, no matter who the opponent is.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp play on the Raiders. I could see this game going either way, but I still would lean toward the Rams. Check out St. Louis’ previous nine opponents: Chargers, Broncos, Cardinals, 49ers, Chiefs, Seahawks, 49ers, Eagles and Cowboys. What a crazy schedule. The combined record of those teams is 67-34. This is the easiest foe St. Louis has dealt with since Week 2. The Rams could easily blow out Oakland as a consequence.

SUNDAY NOTES: There was sharp money that knocked this down to +5.5 at one point Sunday morning. It has risen to -6 in most books ever since. The -5.5 provided some good value, so I wonder if some other pros were responsible for that.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Rams have been underdogs every game since Week 1. They’re favored now, so this is not a good spot for them.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

It’s rare when people bet the Rams at this rate.

Percentage of money on St. Louis: 76% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Rams 26, Raiders 17
Rams -5.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 52, Raiders 0

New Orleans Saints (4-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)
Line: Steelers by 3.5. Total: 53.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Steelers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -4.
Sunday, Nov. 30, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

Check out the newest chapter of the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: There has to be something internally wrong with the Saints. Drew Brees is not making good decisions, which is strange for him. Sean Payton, meanwhile, continues to be guilty of strange calls in crucial situations. Why is he calling for runs so often with the pedestrian Mark Ingram near the goal line when he possesses one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL and a top-two tight end? It wouldn’t surprise me at all if either one of those men is dealing with something in their personal lives because the Saints struggling like this makes very little sense.

The Jets and Titans were both able to move the chains on the Steelers, so this is a nice opportunity for Brees to perhaps bounce back, right? Well, I wouldn’t be too sure about that. Pittsburgh’s defense was so dreadful prior to the bye because half the starters were missing. Troy Polamalu and Ryan Shazier being out were absolutely huge, and both will be back in this contest. Cornerback Ike Taylor will return as well.

This does not bode well for the Saints, who are not nearly as good outside of the Superdome. Brees is so much more ineffective outdoors, and it’s not even like he’s been playing all that well at home. He’ll move the chains against a secondary that is still a bit questionable, but I see the offense sputtering again, especially with Polamalu and Shazier back to help stop the run.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Brees and Payton have sucked this year, but the biggest issue has been Rob Ryan. His top-10 defense from 2013 has transformed into a dreadful unit that surrenders multiple huge plays every single drive. It’s ridiculous, and he can’t even have his troops mentally focused, as the Saints had to waste a timeout in the second half Monday night because they had just 10 men on the field. It’s like Ryan has been drunk this entire season; it’s otherwise inexplicable how much worse New Orleans’ defense has gotten.

Le’Veon Bell has to be licking his chops after seeing what Justin Forsett did to New Orleans. The Saints have surrendered 504 rushing yards in their previous three games, which is just preposterous. Bell could easily eclipse the 200-yard barrier, and perhaps even challenge Adrian Peterson’s single-game mark of 296 rushing yards.

Ben Roethlisberger has an extremely matchup as well. The Saints can’t cover at all, and he has been on fire ever since Martavis Bryant emerged as a threat across from Antonio Brown. New Orleans sacked Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco a combined two times, so Roethlisberger should enjoy a clean pocket as he dissects the Saints’ pathetic secondary.

RECAP: I’ve had my eye on this game for a while. Three weeks ago, when the Saints were fresh off victories against the Packers and Panthers, they were 4-4 with three home games on the horizon. I thought they’d sweep those games, considering how great they ~~are~~ were in the Superdome and emerge 7-4 heading into this contest. With the injuries the Steelers had sustained, I thought Pittsburgh might be a home underdog again, which would’ve made this my Pick of the Month.

Unfortunately, the complete opposite occurred, and we’ve lost all line value. The Steelers were even -3 a week ago, yet the spread has risen some more. Thus, this is not nearly as good of a betting opportunity.

I’m still picking the Steelers though. They’re coming off a bye – favorites tend to perform well with extra rest – and Mike Tomlin is 5-2 against the spread in these situations. Plus, it’s high time that I start fading New Orleans. Having said that, this will not be for any units. The Steelers could be looking ahead to their big game at Cincinnati next week, and again, we’ve lost all line value.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps jumped on the Saints on Saturday night. Haven’t they had enough? Well, maybe they’re looking at the fact that the Steelers have lost 14 of 15 games against the spread when favored the week before playing Cincinnati.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps continue to pound the Saints. If New Orleans finally covers after blowing three home games, I’ll be pretty pissed.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Not much interest in New Orleans anymore.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 69% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Mike Tomlin is 5-2 ATS off a bye.

Drew Brees is 36-26 ATS as an underdog.

Drew Brees is 29-19 ATS after a loss with the Saints (8-4 ATS as an underdog).

Opening Line: Steelers -4.

Opening Total: 53.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Steelers 34, Saints 27
Steelers -3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 53.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 35, Steelers 32

Carolina Panthers (3-7-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-7)
Line: Vikings by 2.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Vikings -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -4.
Sunday, Nov. 30, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 39 people remain. Just five dropped out from last week, as there weren’t too many upsets.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s a bit difficult to handicap this game because Cam Newton’s status is such a big question mark. Newton was extremely banged up prior to the bye, thanks to all of the sacks and other hits he has taken, and it’s kept him from running very much. Newton has had some time to heal, so perhaps he’ll be a running threat in this contest.

Then again, Newton is bound to get hit quite often. The Vikings are tied for the fourth-most sacks in the NFL, so they won’t have any issues getting through Carolina’s abomination of an offensive line. Making matters worse for Newton, Minnesota also has a quality secondary that just put the clamps on Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, so it’ll be able to limit Kelvin Benjamin.

The Vikings’ weakness on this side of the ball is their inability to stop the rush, ranking just 27th against it (4.54 YPC). However, the Panthers don’t have the personnel to take advantage of that liability. Their running backs stink, and they aren’t getting any lanes to burst through. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have failed to perform well against other poor ground defenses, so I don’t see why that would suddenly change.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Panthers don’t possess the same sort of pass rush the Vikings do. They’re only in the middle of the pack in terms of getting to the quarterback. Having said that, they could have success getting to Teddy Bridgewater, given the issues that Minnesota has up front. Matt Kalil has been a human turnstile this season, while the left guard and right tackle (Phil Loadholt is out) positions are iffy as well.

Bridgewater, as a consequence, has resembled Matt Leinart in his rookie campaign. He’s had to throw tons of checkdowns, and the Vikings have had issues sustaining drives as a result. The Panthers aren’t inept at getting to the quarterback, so they should be able to apply pressure on Bridgewater.

Running the ball might be an issue as well for the Vikings. Jerick McKinnon has looked good in some games, and he has a great matchup on paper, considering the Panthers are 26th against the rush (4.50 YPC). However, looking closely, Carolina has yielded just 3.1 yards per carry to their previous four opponents, as they’ve made major improvements in this area.

RECAP: The Vikings are coming off their “Super Bowl” loss, so I expect them to be flat in this contest. The Panthers seem like the right side to me, but I don’t like them very much because A) Ron Rivera is 0-3 against the spread off a bye, and B) They have a huge game next week at New Orleans, which sadly could decide the division, so there’s some look-ahead potential here.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, I don’t like either side very much. I’d consider a unit on the Panthers +3, but this spread hasn’t risen above +2.5.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps haven’t taken either side, really. The Vikings will be missing Jerick McKinnon, so it’ll be harder for them to move the ball, even against the Panthers’ soft defense.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

The Vikings just lost their “Super Bowl,” while the Panthers have been hearing how bad they are for two weeks.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 59% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Cam Newton is 16-11 ATS off a loss as long as he’s not favored by 7+.

Ron Rivera is 0-3 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: Vikings -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Vikings 24, Panthers 23
Panthers +2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Vikings 31, Panthers 13

Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games
Arizona�at�Atlanta, New England�at�Green Bay, Denver�at�Kansas City, Miami�at�NY Jets

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
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2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)