NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2014): 9-4 (-$90)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2014): 7-8 (+$100)

NFL Picks (2014): 96-90-6 (+$245)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 1, 6:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games

Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-7)
Line: Cardinals by 1.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -2.
Sunday, Nov. 30, 4:05 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 7! Justin Bieber’s powers to stop the Walking Buc apocalypse are revealed – and there is actually hope for a change.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I hope Matt Ryan is prepared, because he is going to be running for his life in this game. Ryan has dealt with shoddy protection ever since losing multiple linemen in a Week 4 loss to the Vikings, but he may face the most pressure yet this week, as Arizona and its ferocious pass rush comes to town.

Arizona’s front sputtered in the middle of the season when it lost Calais Campbell to injury, but now that Campbell is healthy and back in the lineup, the team is doing a great job of beating down quarterbacks. The Cardinals have accumulated 17 sacks in the previous three games alone, including a whopping seven of Russell Wilson this past Sunday. That’s an insane total, given that Wilson is mobile and can squirt out of trouble.

Making matters worse for Ryan, Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie will smother his two receivers, meaning he’ll have to look elsewhere at times. It would be nice if Ryan could lean on a solid ground attack, but Steven Jackson is decrepit and useless at this stage of his career.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Not having Larry Fitzgerald hurt last week. Drew Stanton was down to Michael Floyd and John Brown, which made traversing a defense featuring the Legion of Boom nearly impossible. Fitzgerald might be out again, as he hasn’t responded well to his knee injury, but fortunately for Stanton, he doesn’t have nearly as difficult of a challenge this week.

The Falcons are 29th against the pass in terms of YPA (8.08). They also struggle to pressure the quarterback, owning the third-fewest sacks in the NFL (15). Stanton should have enough time to find his receivers and move the chains, though he could get overconfident and start forcing passes like he did in the second half of the Detroit game.

The Cardinals can prevent this by featuring Andre Ellington early and often. Ellington hasn’t been able to run very well, but he’ll be potent as a pass-catcher again. Besides this Atlanta defense just surrendered 162 rushing yards to the Browns.

RECAP: We’re getting line value with the Falcons, as this spread was -1 a week ago. It’s now +2.5. However, the line movement hasn’t been sparked by overreaction, as the Cardinals lost last week. This is sharp money pushing Arizona up.

The Cardinals seem like the right side. They are a much better team, and they’re coming off a loss, so they’ll be focused. The Falcons, meanwhile, have only beaten NFC South teams this year (Saints, Panthers, Bucs twice), and they’ve struggled in the past couple of years against winning teams, even at home. Consider the following: The Falcons are just 1-6 straight up as hosts versus teams that are .500 or better since the beginning of the 2013 season. The sole victory came against the 1-0 Rams in Week 1, 2013. The Georgia Dome used to be a great homefield advantage for the Falcons, but that’s not the case anymore.

I don’t like all of the money on Arizona, but I’m willing to put two units on them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The pros are taking the Falcons, but this seems like one of their “square sharp” plays that have cost them this year. Atlanta has been so terrible against good teams, and they haven’t rebounded off losses as well lately.

SUNDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed Sunday morning; this spread hasn’t moved off of -1.5.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

No one’s going to bet on Atlanta.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 77% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Mike Smith is 7-4 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Matt Ryan is 29-20 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Cardinals -1.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Cardinals 20, Falcons 13
Cardinals -1.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 29, Cardinals 18

New England Patriots (9-2) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 57.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -2.
Sunday, Nov. 30, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Too Many Cooks.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: How do you contain the Patriots? If Rob Gronkowski is completely healthy, which he is right now, New England is an unstoppable force. He’s such a matchup nightmare that defenses pay so much attention to him, leaving everyone else open. Throw in a potent ground attack, and the Patriots have been an absolute machine lately.

The Packers have made some nice improvements recently on defense, putting Clay Matthews in the middle so that he, Julius Peppers and Nick Perry could be on the field at the same time. It’s worked out masterfully thus far, but it should be noted that the Packers haven’t been appropriately tested yet. They’ve played the Bears and Eagles – two teams with overrated offenses – as well as the Vikings, so it’ll be interesting to see how their new look holds up.

Getting to Tom Brady will be absolutely crucial, as the only way to limit the Patriots is to hit their quarterback early and often. The Packers do have the personnel to do that, but New England’s offensive line has played better lately. Something has to give, though Brady can just feed the ball to LeGarrette Blount now; the former Steeler has a nice matchup against the NFL’s 20th-ranked ground defense.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers was on fire prior to this past Sunday, posting 50 points in two consecutive contests. He cooled off a bit against the Vikings, but he’s back to the scene of the crime, as he has been terrific in Lambeau over his career. That, however, could change this Sunday.

With apologies to the Legion of Boom, the Patriots have the best secondary in the NFL. Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner have the power to erase opposing targets. They put the clamps on Calvin Johnson, T.Y. Hilton, Brandon Marshall and Julius Thomas in recent weeks. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb actually had some issues with Minnesota’s secondary, so I think their struggles will continue in this contest.

With Rodgers facing lots of pressure – Revis and Browner make it much easier for Belichick to send creative blitzes – the Packers will need a strong outing from Eddie Lacy to move the chains effectively. The Patriots, however, have been superb against ground attacks lately, limiting their previous four opponents to just 3.4 YPC.

RECAP: I love the Patriots in this game. This spread is off, as my calculated number is Packers -2, even when factoring in the Lambeau homefield advantage. S shift of 1.5 points doesn’t seem like much, but we’re crossing the key number of three.

There’s is also a severe coaching mismatch in this contest, as Bill Belichick has a monstrous edge over Mike McCarthy. The Packers have had recent issues against Jim Harbaugh, and previously against Tom Coughlin. because they coached circles around McCarthy, and I feel as though Belichick will be able to do the same thing because like Harbaugh and Coughlin, he’s an elite coach.

I love getting points with Brady – he had to be pissed off upon hearing that he’s an underdog in this game – and I also enjoy betting against home favorites coming off close divisional victories; teams in that situation are just 23-45 against the spread in the past dozen years.

This is a three-unit play for me, but my only worry is this shady spread. Why are the Packers getting the hook, especially with all of the money coming in on the Patriots? Maybe I’ll feel safer about this later in the week and add another unit on New England, especially if this gets closer to equal action.

FINAL THOUGHTS: With a bit less action on the Patriots, I’m comfortable with bumping this up to four units. There’s a major difference between the opponents these teams have battled. Whereas New England has beaten the likes of the Broncos, Colts, Bengals and Lions, the Packers have beaten up on crap foes like the Vikings, Panthers, Bears, etc. I’m locking this in at +3; I don’t see it going up to +3.5.

SUNDAY NOTES: The amount of public action has dropped, and this spread has moved to -2.5 with juice. I hope you were able to lock this in at +3.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Tons of money on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 68% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Patriots are 18-9 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 169-56 as a starter (129-91 ATS).

Tom Brady is 22-10 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Aaron Rodgers is 54-32 ATS since 2009 (8-4 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 58.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Patriots 41, Packers 38
Patriots +3 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 58 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 26, Patriots 21

Denver Broncos (8-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
Line: Broncos by 1.5. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -1.
Sunday, Nov. 30, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

DENVER OFFENSE: As if the Broncos weren’t explosive enough last week, there’s now a chance that Julius Thomas could return to the lineup. Thomas, who sprained his ankle, may not be 100 percent in his first game back, but he’ll certainly serve as a distraction, shifting some of the focus away from Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.

The Chiefs will be praying for Thomas not to suit up. If he’s out again, they’ll have an easier time containing the rest of Denver’s offense, which hasn’t been as explosive in most of its road games. The Chiefs put tons of pressure on the quarterback with Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe, and we’ve seen Peyton Manning be off his game before when he’s had constant pressure in his face without many blitzes sent his way.

The weak part of Kansas City’s defense is its inability to stop the run. James-Michael Johnson has proven to be a huge liability in Derrick Johnson’s absence, so it’s conceivable that the Broncos will have more success on the ground than through the air in this contest.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs moved the chains extremely efficiently when they met the Broncos back in Week 2, and I expect them to have similar results. The Broncos just surrendered about five yards per carry on the ground to the Dolphins. This is just one week after allowing 120 rushing yards at St. Louis, which does not bode well for their chances of containing Jamaal Charles.

Charles is matchup-proof, anyhow. He’s one of the premier running backs in the NFL, and he’s gashed stellar run defenses this year like the Bills (15-98) and 49ers (15-80). As long as Andy Reid remembers to feed Charles the ball – and Reid is generally sharper as an underdog in big games – the Chiefs should be able to generate consistent drives.

With Charles running well, Alex Smith will do his thing – he’ll deliver quick strikes and scramble for some yardage. Smith is limited physically, but his ability to release the ball super quickly nullifies pass rushes – which happens to be the strength of Denver’s stop unit.

RECAP: Believe it or not, but this is my November NFL Pick of the Month. I’m not worried about the Raiders beating the Chiefs last week. These things happen, and Oakland nearly went into Seattle and knocked off the Seahawks, so they’ve been competitive lately. Besides, Kansas City was caught looking ahead to this game.

Here’s why I love the Chiefs:

1. This spread is off. I have the Chiefs calculated as one-point favorite. We’re getting three points of value at the moment, but this spread is rising because of all the public action on Denver. If it hits +3, I’ll lock it in because we’ll have an unbelievable four points of value.

2. Speaking of the action, the Broncos are being bet on at an 80-percent clip. There are higher ratios this week – the Giants have eclipsed 90 percent – but this one means more to Vegas because it’s the Sunday night game. There will be more money on Denver than any other team this week. People will be pounding the Broncos come Sunday night to either recoup their losses or double up on their winnings. Vegas will get absolutely slaughtered if the Broncos cover.

3. I like siding with the house, and the books clearly believe the Chiefs are the right side. They could have made this spread -3 and still drawn at least two-thirds action on Denver. Why do they want so much money on the Broncos? Also, keep in mind that Pinnacle, the sharpest book on the Web, is dying for people to bet Denver. As of this writing, they are offering -1.5, while everyone else is at -2.

4. “But how can Peyton Manning lose to Alex Smith!?” That’s what everyone’s asking, and it’s exactly why this is a no-brainer to most people. It seems like a legitimate question until you consider the following: Shaun Hill beat Peyton Manning this year. This occurred on the road, and the Broncos have not been as good outside of Mile High. Check out how they’ve done as visitors:

At Seattle (Loss, 26-20): The Seahawks are not who we thought they were.
At Jets (Win, 31-17): The Broncos needed a miracle pick-six from Aqib Talib to cover that game.
At Patriots (Loss, 43-21): Not even close.
At Raiders (Win, 41-17): Oakland actually led this game in the second quarter before it self-destructed with turnovers and stupidity.
At Rams (Loss, 22-7): Shaun Hill!

As you can see, the Broncos are 2-3 on the road, and their only wins have come against the Jets and Raiders, who have a combined 3-19 record.

5. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are a very good team. They beat the Seahawks. They slaughtered the Rams, who have beaten Seattle, San Francisco and Denver. They won in San Diego. They destroyed Miami. They obliterated New England on this very field. Sure, they just lost at Oakland, but they were not prepared for that game. They had their focus on the Broncos.

6. Speaking of that Oakland game, the Chiefs have had extra time to prepare for this battle, given that they played the Raiders last Thursday. Reid usually thrives coming off a bye, so I imagine that he devised a great game plan with these few extra days.

7. It never hurts to have a cool trend on our side, so check this out: Teams coming off a close win (1-3 points) in a high-scoring game in which they barely punted and didn’t convert many third downs are a dismal 10-42 against the spread dating back to 1989. The SDQL for those interested is: 0=20

Good luck to those betting the Chiefs with me. I’ll be monitoring this spread to see if it hits +3, and if it does, I’ll lock it in. Even if it doesn’t get to +3, I still love Kansas City. Follow me on Twitter @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It doesn’t look like we’re getting +3 – not even on Bovada. On the bright side, Pinnacle is still indicating that this is the right side, given that they’re listing -1, while every other book has -1.5 posted.

SUNDAY NOTES: I’ll have some notes tonight, but four things I wanted to mention: First, it doesn’t appear as though Julius Thomas will be able to play (according to Jason La Canfora). Second, it’s sounding like Aqib Talib may not be 100 percent with a hamstring. Third, most of the ESPN analysts have picked the Broncos even though the Chiefs are now favored (great sign for Kansas City). Fourth, the Chiefs’ defenders are wearing tape around their fingers for Eric Berry. They want to win this game for Berry.

SUNDAY NIGHT: F***ing Stephen Gostkowski. Ugh. Anyway, I still love the Chiefs for all of the reasons I mentioned. The sharps moved them to a favorite, though Kansas City is available at +2 -105 at Bovada. Good luck if you’re taking the Chiefs tonight.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

I thought there’d be even more money on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 76% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Home Team has won 19 of the last 27 meetings (Broncos have won the last 6).

Peyton Manning is 42-27 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Peyton Manning is 14-9 ATS on Sunday Night Football since 2004.

Peyton Manning is 4-7 SU when the temperature is 32 degrees or colder.

Chiefs are 12-28 ATS as home underdogs of 1-5.5 points since 2007.

Opening Line: Broncos -1.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 25 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Chiefs 30, Broncos 24
Chiefs +1.5 (7 Units – November NFL Pick of the Month) — Incorrect; -$770
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 29, Chiefs 16

Miami Dolphins (6-5) at New York Jets (2-9)
Line: Dolphins by 7. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Dolphins -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -7.
Monday, Dec. 1, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Charles Davis, the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of North Jersey, where two stupid teams I don’t care about are taking the field. What are the Dolphins and Jets, a combined 2-20!? Ha! These loser Jets couldn’t even play in the snow in the Buffalo game! A bunch of panzies if you ask me! I’d play football in the snow any time, any place!

Emmitt: Garlan, you wrong about the Dolphin. The Dolphin actually a good team this week. I mean year. The Dolphin wonned more game than he losted. He also the only fish logo in the entire National of Conferences!

Reilly: Dolphins aren’t fish, Emmitt. They’re mammals. Why? I don’t know, but that’s what the scientists say.

Emmitt: Well, in my opinions, science is stupid. How can Dolphin not be fish if he swim in the water? Any animal that swim in the water call a fish!

Reilly: That’s what I said, Emmitt! These scientists are just p***sies like the Jets, who couldn’t play in the snow. They’re not as tough as me! I’m from Philly and I can handle anything!

Herm: BUT THEY COULDN’T PRACTICE IN THE SNOW! COULDN’T GET READY! COULDN’T GET PREPARED! COULDN’T DO ANYTHING! COULDN’T EVEN GET TO THE GAME! COULDN’T DO IT! TRIED TO DO IT! BUT COULDN’T DO IT! COULDN’T…

POW!!!

Reilly: Take that, idiot Herm! Yeah, I just punched you! What!? I told you – I’m from Philly and I’m a tough guy!

Millen: Oh wow, you just knocked Herm out cold. That was so sexy. I always thought you were maybe 75-percent USDA Man, but now I see that you are a true 100-percent USDA Man. Say, Kevin, I have some kielbasas in my hotel room. How about we sneak off, and I ram some of those kielbasas in your backside tonight?

Reilly: Don’t test me, Millen! I’m serious. I’ll knock out every person in this booth! Wait, I’m getting a text. It’s from mother. She said I’ll be grounded if I punch someone else tonight. Ugh, she makes the worst rules!

Fouts: And here’s why she made those rules, Kevin. You and Herm Edwards were standing in the booth together. And by standing, I mean both of your feet were on the ground, and your knees were locked. You and Herm looked at each other. Herm revealed some flowers he was hiding. He probably bought those flowers at a flower shop, or maybe even a supermarket. He gave the flowers to you by extending his arm, and you extended your arms to take them. Then, you moved in to kiss. And here’s what I mean by kiss: You squeezed your lips together and moved them toward Herm’s lips. Your lips would then connect, and perhaps your mouths would open up. This is called a French kiss, and it was invented by the people in the country of France, just like a Spanish kiss was invented by the people in the country of Spanish.

Tollefson: What the f*** are you talking about, Fouts? None of that happened. Kevin, you need to stand up to your mother. A woman isn’t allowed to boss any man around. If my mother tried that tone with me, I’d tell her to cook for me. Not naked like the other girls though – because that would be incest.

Reilly: Incest!? What a disgusting thing to even mention! Who would do a thing like that!? Not me! Ha!

Charles Davis: Kevin, did you know there are various types of incest, Kevin? Let’s begin with the incest between adults and children, Kevin. This is called child sexual abuse, Kevin. Did you know that two cousins having sex is also incest, Kevin? I find that odd because Native Americans married cross cousins, Kevin. How about childhood sibling incest, Kevin? That’s an interesting one, Kevin. What about an avunculate marriage, Kevin? That’s when someone marries their aunt or uncle, Kevin. And let’s not forget incest between two consenting adults, Kevin. Can you name an example of this on TV, Kevin? I’ll give you the grand prize if you do, Kevin. Oh, you guessed Jake and Kate from Lost, Kevin? Nope, that’s not incest because they weren’t related, Kevin. Now you think it’s Rick and Daryl from the Walking Dead, Kevin? Try again, Kevin! Oh, you give up already, Kevin. That’s too bad, Kevin. An example of this would be Jaime and Cersei Lannister, Kevin! You forfeit the grand prize, Kevin!

Reilly: What!? Give me the damn grand prize, or you’ll be joining Herm on the ground. Screw mother’s rules! We’ll be back after this!

MIAMI OFFENSE: As if losing to the Bills by five touchdowns wasn’t enough, the Jets saw Muhammad Wilkerson leave the game in the first quarter with a toe injury. Wilkerson is arguably the best defensive lineman in the NFL, excluding J.J. Watt, of course, so the Jets’ defense immediately worsened when he was knocked out. They suddenly couldn’t stop the run or get to Kyle Orton at all, and they’ll have similar issues in this contest if Wilkerson doesn’t play.

With loads of time to throw, Ryan Tannehill should be able to abuse New York’s awful secondary. The Jets couldn’t even handle Robert Woods, so I can’t see them having much success against Mike Wallace and the emerging Jarvis Landry.

The Dolphins will run the ball as well if Wilkerson can’t suit up. Sheldon Richardson and Snacks Harrison are still in the lineup as stellar run defenders, but Wilkerson’s absence will have that much of an impact. Lamar Miller gained about five yards per carry on the Broncos, who are No. 2 versus the rush, so he should be able to have success against the Wilkerson-less Jets.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I cannot believe Rex Ryan wanted to stick with QBDK. I actually wrote in my recaps that QBDK might have played the final game of his career in that ugly loss to the Bills. I don’t know what the hell Ryan is thinking. QBDK has no heart, and he’s not preparing for these games. On top of that, he’s struggling with pressure and throwing inaccurate balls.

Even with Geno Smith at the helm, this is a recipe for disaster against a defense like Miami’s. The Dolphins, like the Bills, put a ridiculous amount of pressure on the quarterback. The Jets took seven sacks last week, and there will be more to come Monday night.

Don’t count on New York to run the football either. Neither Chris Ivory nor Chris Johnson could find any running lanes against the Bills, and they won’t have success against Miami. Sure, C.J. Anderson just gashed the Dolphins, but they were focused on Peyton Manning, and it also hurt them that Jared Odrick got hurt in the second quarter. Odrick should be fine for this game, so Miami’s ground defense, which was in the top 10 heading into last weekend, should be able to limit the rush.

RECAP: If there wasn’t so much action on the Dolphins, I’d be all in on them. The Jets, as predicted at the beginning of the season, are quitting because of a mixture of things (failed expectations, poisonous players, lame-duck coach who is being overruled by management), so they’ll be a nice fade the rest of the way. The Dolphins typically don’t perform well in the role of a favorite, but this could be an exception, as New York is not a competitive football team right now.

If you want to bet the Dolphins, lock it in now. It’ll continue to rise, as there is zero sharp support on the Jets.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve already locked in the Dolphins -6.5, so I’m not changing my pick. I wouldn’t want to anyway. This game no longer fits the 85-15 Rule, so the Dolphins are free to dominate the Jets, who might not show up tonight.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Dolphins are coming off a crushing loss at Denver. Following this game, they have the Ravens and Patriots. However, the Jets may have quit.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Who wants to bet on the Jets?

Percentage of money on Team: 83% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Road Team has won 10 of the last 13 meetings.

Dolphins are 5-14 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Underdog is 54-28 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 82 games.

Opening Line: Dolphins -5.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Dolphins 27, Jets 17
Dolphins -6.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 16, Jets 13

Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games
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Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Panthers +8.5, Chiefs +7.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
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2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)