NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)

NFL Picks (2014): 72-72-6 (+$145)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 10, 5:55 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

Cleveland Browns (5-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2-1)
Line: Bengals by 7. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bengals -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -3.
Thursday, Nov. 6, 8:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

WEEK 9 RECAP: There’s not much to complain about this past week, as I was +$760, which got me back into the black.

The two Sunday selections I lost were the Texans and Cowboys for two units each. I don’t get how Philadelphia prevailed despite losing the turnover margin by three (teams are 731-98 ATS when winning the turnover margin by exactly three since 1989), while Brandon Weeden proved to be a complete abomination. I thought he’d be better, based on how he performed Monday night, but Arizona’s defense made him play like crap.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

WEEK 10 BETTING TRENDS: I’ve identified poisonous teams that I would never bet on to save me from some bad picks. Here’s the list. It’s the same as last week, though I made an adjustment to Tampa heading into the weekend, as the Buccaneers have performed well on the road this year.

Poisonous Teams:
Raiders
Jaguars
Titans
Buccaneers (home only)
Rams

Seven weeks ago, I discussed point value in terms of the Las Vegas Hilton advance spread. That dynamic was 16-10 against the spread since Week 2 entering last weekend. How did it do in Week 9? Not well:

Before Week 8	After Week 8	ATS Result
Jets +5	Jets +9.5	No cover
Panthers -1.5	Panthers +2	No cover
Texans PK	Texans +2.5	No cover
Raiders +13	Raiders +15	Cover

It’s now 17-13 ATS this season. Not bad, but not as strong as it was earlier in the year. It would make sense for the books to overadjust too much in the first half of the season.

Here are this week’s value lines (movements of two or more without serious injuries):

Before Week 9	After Week 9
Jets +3.5	Jets +6

There’s only one game this week (the Jets are +6 at Bovada). That line movement was predictable, as the Steelers’ victory over Baltimore was impressive.

TEAMS OFF BYES: There are six teams coming off byes this week, so I thought it would be a good idea to examine how NFL teams have fared with a week off. The results show that it varies depending on the situation, and each coach is different with more rest. For example, Andy Reid is 11-5 ATS following a bye, while Mike McCarthy is even better, owning a flawless 8-0 ATS record. Other coaches haven’t been as successful. Rex Ryan (1-4 ATS) and Lovie Smith (2-7 ATS) have both struggled, for instance. You can see post-bye NFL records here.

As for situations, byes obviously favor superior teams. That’s because they get the most out of having an extra week to prepare. Take a look at these (all records since 2002):

1. Home, non-divisional favorites are 43-26 ATS off a bye when playing a team not off a bye.

This benefits the Lions, though you have to wonder how much preparation they were doing for the Dolphins before they saw Miami obliterate San Diego.

2. Road favorites coming off a bye are 36-13 ATS when playing a team not off a bye.

This is a stronger version of the first trend. Road favorites are obviously much better than their opponents; otherwise, they wouldn’t be laying points as visitors. This applies to the Falcons. Granted, Atlanta is not very good, but the team is much better than the Buccaneers, who are atrocious at home.

3. Home favorites are 17-6 ATS if both teams are off byes.

Again, this indicates that the better team benefits more from extra preparation. Not having to travel is an added bonus, as that can be a hassle.

There’s nothing really going for or against the Bills or Titans, but at least we have a strong indication of how four of the six teams coming off byes will perform.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns were in a funk offensively entering the Tampa contest. They had struggled to score against the Jaguars and Raiders because they lost center Alex Mack to injury. Their running game completely vanished as a result, though it reappeared last week in the victory against the Buccaneers.

Some win over Tampa may not mean anything because the Buccaneers’ defense sucks, but there was definitely a big difference between Ben Tate and Terrance West. The former Texan continued to struggle, but was benched in the second half. West thrived as a replacement, especially in terms of picking up the blitz. He saved Brian Hoyer with a crucial block that allowed the quarterback to find a receiver deep downfield for the game-winning touchdown.

The Bengals have an atrocious run defense, ranked 29th in terms of YPC (4.79), most recently surrendering 122 rushing yards to the Jaguars. West figures to run well again, and he’ll help set up a clean pocket for Hoyer. The Bengals have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, so Hoyer will have all evening to find his targets.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals didn’t have Giovani Bernard last week, while A.J. Green was limited. It didn’t matter, as they were still able to score 33 on a Jacksonville stop unit that had been playing well entering the contest.

The difference was Jeremy Hill. The rookie runner was explosive in replacing the injured Bernard, rushing for 154 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries against a solid Jaguar ground defense. If Hill could do that sort of damage against Jacksonville, he’ll have plenty of big gains versus the Browns, who are 27th versus the run.

Hill will set up Andy Dalton with easier opportunities, which should lead to many successful throws to a healthier Green and an emerging Mohamed Sanu. The Browns produce a better pass rush than the Bengals do, but it’s not overly dominant and shouldn’t give Dalton too much of an issue, especially if Hill is going off.

RECAP: I view the Browns and Bengals as equals – and the metrics back that up – so this spread doesn’t make much sense to me. I’m going to take Cleveland for two units, as the only trepidation I have is how well Cincinnati has played at home over the past two years. Still, the Browns seem like the right side, especially given Marvin Lewis’ futility in nationally televised games.

Again, Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. I’ll announce via Twitter @walterfootball when each selection is posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t like the fact that Andrew Hawkins is out, but the spread movement has made up for that. The Bengals are now -6.5 in many places – thanks to the public driving this spread up – and it’s even -7 at Bovada. I like the Browns for two units, as these teams are about even. Cincinnati has a great homefield advantage, but the team is overrated. The sharps have not weighed in on this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Tons of action on the host.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 75% (43,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bengals have won 14 of the last 19 meetings (home team has won last 5).

Bengals are 11-3 ATS at home since 2013.

Bengals are 20-35 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Marvin Lewis is 6-11 ATS in nationally televised regular-season games.

Opening Line: Bengals -6.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Browns 24
Browns +7 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; +$0
Browns 24, Bengals 3

Dallas Cowboys (6-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)
Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cowboys -10.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -9 (Romo) or Cowboys -3 (Weeden).
Sunday, Nov. 9, 1:00 ET
Wembley Stadium, London
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

VEGAS UPDATE: Vegas lost countless millions in Week 6, but the books won a ton of money back the next two weeks. This past weekend wasn’t as good, as the house lost with the Saints, Eagles, Cardinals and Colts all covering. Arizona and Indianapolis were especially painful. That said, it wasn’t a bad week, as Vegas won with the Dolphins, Jaguars and Rams beating the spread.

This week, there are two ridiculously highly bet teams in the Steelers and Broncos. There is almost zero money on the Jets and Raiders, so if the NFL cared about integrity, it would monitor the bank statements of the refs of those games. Then again, this is Roger Goodell we’re talking about.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

DALLAS OFFENSE: There’s no line posting on this game because of Tony Romo’s status. I can’t blame Vegas for not listing a spread, given how bad Brandon Weeden was last week. There are only two possibilities I could come up with to explain his incompetence versus the Cardinals. He’s either color blind and consequently doesn’t know whom he’s targeting, or he was insanely drunk during the loss to Arizona. I made light of the latter possibility in my NFL Power Rankings this week.

Jason Garrett told the media that he’s optimistic about Romo’s chances of playing in this contest, but he said the same thing last week, so it’s difficult to trust him. If Romo were to suit up, he wouldn’t have much of an issue dissecting Jacksonville’s atrocious back seven, which couldn’t even stop Andy Dalton last week. The Jaguars, who surrendered 150-plus yards on the ground to Jeremy Hill, wouldn’t have a chance of containing DeMarco Murray.

Weeden, on the other hand, obviously wouldn’t be as difficult to play against. I don’t think all hope is lost for the Cowboys if Weeden starts though. He did look decent Monday night against the Redskins, and the Jaguars obviously don’t have the same sort of defense Arizona possesses.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: If Weeden starts, Bleak Bortles won’t be the worst quarterback on the field for once. Unfortunately, that won’t preclude him from throwing interceptions, which he has a habit of. Perhaps he and Weeden are both color blind. That would explain a lot, but then I’d just wonder if they attend meetings together and call each other for support.

I joke about Bortles, but the Jaguars will be able to move the chains on the Cowboys. They’ll do so via the ground game, as the Cowboys have an atrocious rush defense, which is ranked 31st in terms of YPC (5.01). Denard Robinson has provided the Jaguars with a much-needed boost coming out of the backfield, and he’ll continue to perform well.

Robinson will allow Bortles to have easier passing situations, but Bortles has had those in some of his putrid performances. It’s just hard to trust him. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he threw three interceptions in this game.

RECAP: I obviously can’t post a definitive pick until Romo’s status is known. I’ll probably be taking the Cowboys regardless, given that the superior team usually covers in London, but I can’t say what the unit total is until I know more.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The spread was posted, and the Cowboys are slightly cheap as a touchdown favorite. I have them at -9, so I’m selecting them. The better team usually prevails in London too, so that’s another reason. However, I can’t bet them because Romo is too much of an unknown. He may not be 100 percent, which will obviously hurt his ability to cover.

SUNDAY NOTES: If this game weren’t in London – the superior team has usually prevailed there – I’d consider the Jaguars. The decision to start Tony Romo could really backfire. I have no interest in betting this game, and the sharps don’t either.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

No surprise that the public is taking the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 81% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Tony Romo is 8-20 ATS as a favorite of -7 or more excluding Thanksgiving (4-2 on Thanksgiving).

The underdog is 49-21 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Jaguars are 9-21 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Jaguars are 20-47 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Cowboys -7.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Cowboys 27, Jaguars 16
Cowboys -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 31, Jaguars 17

Miami Dolphins (5-3) at Detroit Lions (6-2)
Line: Lions by 3. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Lions -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -1.
Sunday, Nov. 9, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

HATE MAIL: The bad news is that I can’t really type, “Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards:” because I didn’t get any. The good news is that I found lots of hate mails in my New York Jets NFL Season Preview, where I was heavily blasted for predicting the Jets to go 2-14.

Here they are, with my responses to them:

You do realize that those same young, enthusiastic players are still on the team, and they added some more young enthusiastic players to join them. I can’t wait for you to be wrong once again this year. I will make sure you hear it every week.

I haven’t been hearing it every week though. Can I please start hearing it every week!?

Wide receivers 1 star? Eric Decker and Jeremy Kerley are both good starters. David Nelson is a good back up as well. Wide receivers should be 3 stars. Also Dee Milliner was great in the last four games of the year and shows lots of promise. Patterson will be solid, and Wislon is just eh. Antonio Allen and Dawan Landry are serviceable, and Calvin Pryor is just a rookie. I give the secondary 3 stars. Also running backs are 2 stars, Ivory is descent.

Jeremy Kerley is a good starter? That’s like saying Rosie O’Donnell is an attractive woman.

Is this some kind of joke site?

No. That would be nyjets.com.

“Johnson is also coming off a torn meniscus and sat out OTAs as a consequence, so he’ll be even worse than usual.” You do know that he tore that in week 3, last year, right? Even with that injury, he still amassed 1077 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs, 342 receiving yards and 4 receiving TDs. Yes, now that he has had surgery, and is healing, he will be worse. I guess having your own site gives you the right to not have any clue what you are talking about.

It absolutely does. I can write about anything I please with zero clues.

Walter, You are a joke. That is all.

I don’t get it. Walter… Wal… ter… Walter… I don’t understand the punch line. I don’t get the joke!

Whoever wrote this article is clearly a Pats or Fins fan. This article is just spewing of extremely biased hate. The fact that the so called writer won’t even say Vicks name says it all. And I’m sure they think Hernandez deserves a fair shot and a paycheck. Also has the Pats with 13 wins.Wow . Well I’ll never look to Walterfootball for anything ever again

No biased hate here! It’s all unbiased hate! And sure, I’d give Aaron Hernandez another shot. (Get it? Shot?)

Internet comments are not nearly enough sometimes, so I wrote an entire article devoted to how wrong Walter is about the Jets, particularly his 2-14 projection. http://isportsweb.com/2014/09/03/correcting-walter-jets-season-preview/

Can I write an article about why your article was wrong about my article being wrong? Mind blown!

DETROIT OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford has to be thrilled that he’ll have Calvin Johnson back. Megatron has been out of the lineup and/or banged up since Week 4, but he recently told the media his ankle is nearly 100-percent healthy. That’s definitely music to Stafford’s ears, as Stafford never has played as well with his stud receiver out of the lineup – and understandably so.

The Dolphins, however, won’t just roll over. They possess a fierce defense that is tied for fifth in the NFL with 25 sacks. They’ve been especially potent in terms of getting to the quarterback lately, registering 14 sacks in the four games since their bye. That’s definitely bad news for Stafford, as Detroit’s offensive line has had major problems blocking. The Lions have surrendered the fifth-most sacks in the NFL (24), and only one team that has been on a bye thus far (49ers) has allowed more. Perhaps the Lions used their week off to improve things up front, but we’re talking about a unit that couldn’t even block Atlanta’s pedestrian pass-rushers.

Detroit will also have a tough time running the ball. The Dolphins have a top-10 ground defense, and they’ve limited three of their previous five opponents to 50 rushing yards or fewer. Thus, Stafford will be in plenty of long-yardage situations, which will allow Cameron Wake and the rest of the defensive line to tee off on him.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins have the NFL’s top defense, but the Lions are right behind them. Statistically, at least. Detroit suffered a huge blow when Nick Fairley sustained a knee injury in London. Along with Ndamukong Suh and DeAndre Levy, Fairley was one of the top three players on the Lions’ stop unit, and he will sorely be missed.

Fairley was tremendous in all facets. He was an excellent run-stuffer, so the Lions may not be ranked second against the rush in terms of YPC for much longer. Lamar Miller, who injured his shoulder in last week’s victory, will be in the lineup, and he could have some success versus a suddenly thin Detroit front. Miller has been exceptional this season, as no team has held him to less than 3.4 yards per carry in any game.

The Lions will miss Fairley’s ability to get to the quarterback as well. With Fairley gone, the Lions will have only two consistent pass-rushers in Suh and Ziggy Ansah. The Dolphins have an improved offensive line and should be able to keep Ryan Tannehill’s pocket somewhat clean.

RECAP: The Dolphins are one of my top picks this week. Four reasons for four units:

1. We’re getting points with the superior team. Metrics-wise, the Dolphins are much better, and that’s before factoring in Fairley’s injury. My calculated spread for this game is actually Dolphins -1.

2. Miami plays so well on the road and is in an underdog role. The Dolphins are 18-3 against the spread as a road underdog of fewer than five points since 2008.

3. Conversely, the Lions are a dog team that doesn’t show up when it doesn’t have to. The numbers back it up, as Stafford is 2-7 ATS as a favorite following two or more consecutive victories. The Lions have had two weeks to hear about how great they are at 6-2. I don’t think they’ll be fully focused for a non-conference foe they know very little about.

4. I mentioned that home favorites fare well coming off a bye, but the Lions may not have been preparing for the Dolphins. That’s because they have the 7-1 Cardinals, Patriots and rival Bears on the horizon. If anything, they were focused on those contests, as this game doesn’t mean that much to them in the grand scheme of things.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Dolphins a lot. I’ve been asked why the Perfect Game Rule doesn’t apply to them, and it’s because they weren’t a big favorite last week. However, I’m dropping this to three units as long as I can’t get +3. It’s +2.5 everywhere now. If the line rises to +3 – and I don’t think it will because the sharps are on Miami – I’ll bump it back up to four units.

SUNDAY NOTES: The Dolphins are an even +3 at Bovada, but you need to pay -115 juice for that elsewhere. Again, I like the Dolphins for four units at +3 -110; three units otherwise. The sharps are split, while the public has pounded the Lions late in the week. Vegas’ unwillingness to put this at +3 -110 is telling though.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

The Lions are in a Breather Alert, as they have the 7-1 Cardinals, Patriots and rival Bears after this game against a non-conference foe.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Lots of late money on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 71% (26,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Underdog is 54-26 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 80 games.

Dolphins are 18-3 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Dolphins are 16-8 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record since 2007.

Dolphins are 10-15 ATS vs. NFC teams since 2008.

Matthew Stafford is 2-7 ATS as a favorite following 2+ wins.

Opening Line: Lions -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Dolphins 24, Lions 23
Dolphins +3 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 20, Dolphins 16

Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)
Line: Bills by 1.5. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -4.
Sunday, Nov. 9, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. One of the minor reports this week was the reveal that Kelvin Benjamin ran a slow 40 so that he could be drafted by Carolina. There are plenty of holes in this story. How did Benjamin know that the Panthers wouldn’t be turned off by his slow 40? How did he know another team wouldn’t be deterred? And more importantly, why would he want to go to Carolina? If he had said his goal was to go to San Francisco or Pittsburgh (for their football legacy), Miami or San Diego (for the scenery), or Houston or Dallas (because of no state income tax in Texas), I would have believed him. But Carolina? I don’t think I’d go there if anyone paid me.

2. A few weeks ago, I discussed my frustration upon receiving terrible fantasy trades. My friend Body Burner and I share a team in a dynasty keeper league that we just took over. The team was in shambles when we first started – we only kept Robert Griffin and Greg Olsen; the previous owner stupidly spent $63 on Frank Gore and had similar transactions – but we’ve done a nice job rebounding. Our running backs still suck – Chris Ivory is our only non-crappy player there – but we have Griffin, Calvin Johnson, T.Y. Hilton, Pierre Garcon (acquired for Olsen) and Antonio Gates, so we’ve been competitive. Of course, it’s helped that the other teams overspent during the draft. One guy took Bishop Sankey for $63, while another grabbed Chris Johnson for $40. We had Johnson priced at $1, so all we did was laugh.

Other teams have taken notice that we actually have good players now. They’ve been offering us terrible deal after terrible deal for either Johnson or Hilton. Body Burner typed up a whole log of these awful trade proposals:

Houston have offered you a Trade in the AFC8: Wes Welker, Toby Gerhart, Andy Dalton, Denard Robinson and Marqise Lee for Antonio Gates, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Calvin Johnson and Lance Dunbar.

Take note that this occurred in Week 2, so it was before Robinson emerged. The guy called it a “blockbuster deal,” even though Welker and Gerhart were washed-up garbage we wouldn’t start, while Robinson and Lee were unknowns. Effectively, all we were doing was trading Megatron and Gates for a slightly better backup quarterback.

This guy kept offering us deals, but we kept rejecting him. We then had this exchange:

Houston: What are you looking for to get Calvin! I guess you need Daulton now and what else? Shoot me an offer. After this week, I don’t know where I’m going. I’m hoping it’s just one of those weeks! I’ve sent you numerous trade offers which you rejected. Why don’t you tell me what you want?

Body Burner: I’ve told I don’t think your team has enough to get Calvin. I don’t want anyone on your team enough that I feel I can make a trade that we’d both be happy with.

Houston: He is not God! He only had 11 pts last week. Everybody has bad games. Whatever, I’ll move on.

If he’s not God, why does he want him so badly? Because Houston did not move on; he kept offering us crappy deals, including this and the following comment:

Houston have offered you a Trade in the AFC8 : Jake Locker, Bishop Sankey and Chargers for Calvin Johnson, Lance Dunbar and Ravens.

Comment: Wow, kind of hard to give you anything to improve yourself because you have what I have. 2 good TE, alot of average RB and no recievers. I figure you need a QB, if Locker doesn’t work I can give you Glennon or even Daulton. Chargers D is alot better than the Ravens D. Locker is good and cheap and I was going to bring him back next year. Benjamin and Donnell are keepers for me.

“Chargers D is alot better than the Ravens D?” How did we reject this deal with that convincing argument, especially when he was willing to throw in Mike Glennon!?

We didn’t even bother responding to that. Locker, Dunbar and the two defenses were all a wash, so all this trade boiled down to was Calvin Johnson for Bishop Sankey – and the two are both priced in the $60s!

Houston eventually decided that he wanted to get Hilton:

Houston have offered you a Trade in the AFC8 : Cecil Shorts and Bishop Sankey for Maurice Jones-Drew and T.Y. Hilton. Comment: If this doesn’t work tell me what would? I don’t get you new guys? you don’t want to communicate or trade. In a keeper league and especially our league there is alot of trading goes on. I know the leagues where you pick just players every year that doesn’t happen much. Anyway just let me know if you even want to trade Hilton or not. So I don’t keep sending offers. You needed a 2nd RB all year. Sankey is a crap shoot. He might be a stud or just what he is now a 12pt guy. Who knows, but he is a huge improvement over Jones Drew. Shorts is the #1 in Jacksonville and finally healthy.

We continued to ignore him. Shorts and Jones-Drew both suck, so once again, this was Sankey for a top receiver. Hilton is obviously not Megatron, but we have Hilton for the next three years at $15. Why in the world would we want to deal him for a $63 running back who has shown nothing thus far?

The trade offers only kept getting worse…

Houston have offered you a Trade in the AFC8 : Shonn Greene, Bishop Sankey and Daniel Thomas for Calvin Johnson and Lance Dunbar.

Ooooohhh, we’d have a monopoly on the Tennessee backfield, and Daniel Thomas as a bonus! All for the low price of Calvin Johnson!

There have been many more awful offers sent by Houston. For two months, both Body Burner and I wondered why he would give us such s***ty offers – and then we discovered the reason. Houston was part of this deal last week:

Miami acquired 49ers, Cecil Shorts and Justin Forsett from Houston. Houston acquired Dez Bryant, Bobby Rainey and Josh McCown from Miami

Cecil Shorts, Josh McCown and the defense don’t matter, so this trade is essentially Dez Bryant and Bobby Rainey (currently Tampa’s starter) for Justin Forsett.

No wonder Houston kept sending us these terrible trades. I guess with enough perseverance, you can eventually rob another team.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Chiefs have played extremely well defensively during their winning streak, and they’ve gotten all the way up to seventh in efficiency. They have one liability on this side of the ball – but it’s something Buffalo can’t take advantage of right now.

The Chiefs are surprisingly dead last against the run, surrendering 5.03 YPC to opposing backs. Even the anemic Chris Johnson looked decent against them last week. The defensive line, excluding Dontari Poe, has underachieved, while James-Michael Johnson has not been an adequate replacement for the injured Derrick Johnson, to put it nicely. However, the Bills will be missing both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson again, so it’s difficult to imagine Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown having big games.

Kansas City has made up for its rush liability by putting insane amounts of pressure on the quarterback. The team only trails the Vikings in sacks. This is not good news for Kyle Orton. The veteran signal-caller has been a massive upgrade over E.J. Manuel, but his issue is that he tends to hold on to the ball too long sometimes. The Chiefs’ pass-rushers will devour him if he continues to do so. Orton will have some deep connections to Sammy Watkins, but most of his drives will likely end in punts.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Bills also happen to rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency, but unlike the Chiefs, they don’t really have a major liability. Their secondary could be better, but they’re tremendous in all other facets.

While the Chiefs are dead last against the run, Buffalo is third, surrendering 3.28 YPC to opposing backs. Having said that, Jamaal Charles will be difficult to contain. The Jets also maintained a top-five rush defense, yet the Chiefs gained 113 yards on the ground last week. Charles won’t be completely shut down, and he’ll also pick up yardage as a pass-catcher, assuming Andy Reid doesn’t forget to get him involved.

The Bills are also proficient in terms of getting to the quarterback; they have just one fewer sack than the Chiefs do. The difference between Orton and Alex Smith, however, is that the latter releases the ball quickly. Reid has designed Kansas City’s offense so that Smith fires quick passes and allows his teammates to do most of the work. Smith can also scramble to pick up first downs, and that’s yet another reason why the Chiefs’ offense has been so efficient this season, ranking fifth in that regard.

RECAP: This is one of the toughest calls of the week. On one hand, the Chiefs are in a terrible spot. Road favorites coming off two consecutive spread victories at home have a dubious history of covering, and Kansas City also has to prepare for next week’s contest against the defending Super Bowl champions. On the other hand, the Chiefs are so much better than the Bills, it isn’t even close. My projected spread for this game is Chiefs -4, which is over the key number of three.

With a gun to my head, I’m taking Kansas City. Reid is usually better in road games, and I feel like people don’t appreciate how good the Chiefs have been, so we’re getting value with them. Having said that, I was very close to picking Buffalo.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Like I said before, I’m pretty torn on this game, so I don’t know where to go with this. The Chiefs are the much better team, but Buffalo is in a much better spot. The sharps are on the Bills.

SUNDAY NOTES: Wow, the Bills are now favored. The sharps are all over them, and I just don’t get it. Kansas City is a much better team.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Lots of money on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 72% (34,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 26-14 ATS in November home games the previous 40 contests.

True home teams are 17-8 ATS in the last 25 Bills games.

Bills are 14-25 ATS in their last 39 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Chiefs -1.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Chiefs 20, Bills 16
Chiefs +1.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 17, Bills 13

San Francisco 49ers (4-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-4)
Line: Saints by 5. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Saints -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -10.
Sunday, Nov. 9, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Saints.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Maryland made a statement against Penn State, refusing to shake hands prior to the game. They received some criticism for this, but I loved it. Why does everyone have to be friends? You should hate the team you’re going up against.

The color analyst of the Penn State-Maryland game, Joey Galloway, caught some flak on Twitter for defending what the Terps did, as you can see here:

Five things are clear: @jdifredi is a sissy. @JoanieBaloney90 is a sissy. @jstbreathin is a sissy. @nickprice91 is a sissy. And all of them suck. They are the sorts of idiots who think that all kids deserve a trophy in youth sports. This sort of mentality is turning America into a wuss country, and it needs to stop before it’s too late. So, the next time you’re in a sporting event, don’t shake your opponent’s hand. You’ll be improving America as a result.

2. Speaking of the Penn State-Maryland game, it was astonishing how annoying the sideline reporter was at the end of the game. The Terps’ coach kept trying to walk away, yet the reporter continued to chase him down and ask stupid questions. Seriously, the coach thought the interview was over when the sideline reporter chased him down to ask one more question: “What did this win do for your program coach, lol?”

Uhh… what do you think it does? It’ll obviously boost team morale for the present and improve recruiting for the future. There’s no need to ask this question because everyone knows the answer. Why does the coach need to respond to this?

More importantly, why do we need sideline reporters? Unless they are eye candy, there’s no point in having them. Even that reason is somewhat invalid, as panned shots to the cheerleaders is good enough. We don’t need losers asking questions like, “Are you wearing boxers or briefs, Coach lol?” It’s pathetic, especially when grown men are the ones asking these sorts of questions.

3. I’ve discussed my criticism of ESPN not allowing Kirk Herbstreit to pick games he’s announcing, but I have never delved into how much I appreciate Chris Fowler. The host of College Gameday constantly tosses out gambling tidbits like “Team X hasn’t covered since Week 1” or “Team Y has covered four in a row.” It’s awesome, and I’m glad one of the major voices on a sports network understands the fact that most people watching football games are bettors. I wish Chris Berman would do the same on Sunday NFL Countdown.

Anyway, the guest this week, Brad Paisley, was amusing because he said Rich Rodriguez “sucks.” Some of the ESPN analysts criticized him for this throughout the day, but I loved it. Rodriguez is most definitely a douche, and any West Virginia fan deserves to bash him. We need more candid people on TV. Perhaps we wouldn’t have such a wussy country if that were the case.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The bye has done wonders for the Saints, who have improved defensively since their week off. In the three games since their bye, New Orleans has produced 11 sacks. That’s a solid number, and it definitely does not bode well for Colin Kaepernick, who was brought down a whopping eight times behind the line of scrimmage against the Rams.

That eight-sack figure was no fluke, as the 49ers have endured issues with their offensive line the entire season. The Saints will take advantage, forcing Kaepernick to either scramble for yardage or throw before he’s ready. Keenan Lewis, who is playing exceptional football right now, will erase one of Kaepernick’s options, making it that much more difficult for him.

The 49ers can ease some of the pressure off Kaepernick by establishing the run. However, the Saints have also improved in that department, limiting their previous four opponents to just 3.44 YPC. There aren’t many teams that have maintained a better figure than that over that time period.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: While the 49ers’ greatest issue has been their offensive line, their defense hasn’t performed well either. That can be blamed on various absent players, and it’s too bad for them that they won’t be getting Aldon Smith back a week early.

Excluding their Week 6 victory over the Rams, the 49ers have registered only eight sacks on the year. The way to beat elite quarterbacks like Drew Brees is to pressure them without blitzing, and San Francisco simply cannot do that with the personnel it’ll put on the field Sunday. Brees, as a consequence, will torch the 49ers, who have a couple of holes in their secondary.

The one thing San Francisco still does extremely well on this side of the ball is stop the run. Mark Ingram has been tremendous the past two weeks, but he just won’t find much running room this week. Still, given the 49ers’ pass-rushing issues, Brees won’t really need Ingram to maintain consistent drives Sunday afternoon.

RECAP: The Saints are one of my top plays of the week for the following reasons:

1. New Orleans is an automatic bet at home. The team is unstoppable in the Superdome (35-14 ATS as home favorites since 2007) because the fans are absolutely crazy.

2. This spread is way off. The Saints, who are completely underrated because they are three plays away from 7-1, should be favored by close to 10. That may seem a bit outrageous when you first think about it, but consider that New Orleans has been the far superior team this year, and that it owns a tremendous homefield advantage.

3. On top of being better and having the homefield advantage, the Saints have also enjoyed extra time to prepare. Home favorites off Thursday night games have covered at a very high rate since this new format began. Teams are 44-19 against the spread in this dynamic.

4. The Saints are kicking off a three-game homestand, which is relevant because home favorites have covered at about a 63-percent clip in such situations over the past 12 years.

5. There’s something terribly wrong with the 49ers. There are definitely some internal things going on with Jim Harbaugh, so San Francisco will probably be a good fade to close out the year.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s professional and public money on the Saints, but not an overwhelming amount. I’m still on them for five units.

SUNDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed. I love the Saints, and the pros have been betting them all week as well.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
No surprise that the Saints are getting money.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 64% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Saints are 35-14 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 37-24 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Saints -3.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Saints 27, 49ers 13
Saints -5 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Under 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 27, Saints 24

Tennessee Titans (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-4)
Line: Ravens by 10. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Ravens -10.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -14.
Sunday, Nov. 9, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Four years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for this past season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses.

Check out the new Spam Mails page here with my most recent responses.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The narrative concerning the Ravens now is that they’re too banged up in the secondary. That’s what Bill Simmons was saying anyway on his podcast with Cousin Sal when they both agreed that this spread was too high. Baltimore is missing Jimmy Smith, but it’s still a fantastic defensive unit. Sure, Ben Roethlisberger torched them, but Roethlisberger also destroyed an Indianapolis defense that was ranked in the top 10 entering that contest.

The Ravens will have a much easier time stopping Tennessee’s scoring attack. Zach Mettenberger had a poor debut in Week 8, showing inconsistent accuracy and bad timing with his receivers. The good news is that he’s had a week off to become more comfortable with his weapons, and Ken Whisenhunt talked about putting more things in the playbook for Mettenberger. The bad news is that Mettenberger struggled against a sub-par Houston defense and now has to battle a tougher Baltimore unit.

Unlike the Texans, who are 24th against the run in terms of YPC, Baltimore is seventh against it, surrendering 3.65 YPC to the opposition. It’s not like the Titans pound the rock anyway, but Bishop Sankey will have even less success than he enjoyed against Houston. This will make life more difficult for Mettenberger.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: While the Titans’ scoring unit figures to be a bit better with some time off, the same probably can’t be said for their defense. There’s just nothing to improve, as many of the players on this side of the ball are just pedestrian.

The Titans haven’t been able to stop the run ever since losing Bernard Pollard to a torn Achilles, as they just surrendered 200 rushing yards to the Texans prior to their bye. Justin Forsett figures to have a big game, which will take some pressure off Joe Flacco. The one thing Tennessee does somewhat well on this side of the ball is get after the quarterback, thanks to Derrick Morgan and Jurell Casey, but they won’t be as effective if Flacco is constantly in short-yardage situations.

Flacco will have lots of success torching Tennessee’s secondary. The Titans haven’t been able to cover at all this season; Blidi Wreh-Wilson and Michael Griffin have both been abominations in coverage, and Pollard has been missed in this regard as well.

RECAP: Simmons said this spread was too high, but I don’t think it’s high enough. There’s an enormous disparity between these two teams. The Ravens are definitely top-10 caliber, while Tennessee is one of the league’s three-worst squads. The Ravens, who are 8-2 ATS following a double-digit loss under John Harbaugh, will be completely focused, given that they have a bye week coming up.

I’m going with two units on the Ravens. This would be a bigger play if the Titans weren’t coming off a bye.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been a tiny bit of sharp movement on the Titans, but that’s not unusual, as they’re just betting a number, which is usually a stupid thing to do. The Ravens seem like the right side, as they are so much better than Tennessee and in a better spot.

SUNDAY NOTES: The Ravens are now -10 instead of -9.5, so there hasn’t been much sharp support to offset the public betting action. I still like Baltimore for two units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Lots of action on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 81% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Ravens are 19-8 ATS in November home games since 2000.

John Harbaugh is 8-2 ATS following a loss of 10+.

Opening Line: Ravens -10.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Titans 10
Ravens -10 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 21, Titans 7

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at New York Jets (1-8)
Line: Steelers by 6. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Steelers -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -3.
Sunday, Nov. 9, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

Video of the Week: I don’t even know what to say about this video. It’s one of the weirdest, most-random things I’ve ever seen in my life (thanks, Drew P.):

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: How in the world are the Jets going to stop Ben Roethlisberger? Big Ben has been on fire the past couple of weeks, throwing for 12 touchdowns in his previous two contests. New York, meanwhile, has struggled to stop the pass all year because of its anemic secondary.

To even have a chance, the Jets need to put as much pressure on Roethlisberger as possible. They can certainly do that; they’re tied for fifth in the NFL with 25 sacks, while Pittsbugh’s offensive line showed some liabilities early in the Baltimore game when Roethlisberger took sacks on three consecutive plays. New York will also have to make sure that Le’Veon Bell won’t get going. The team just surrendered 113 rushing yards to the Chiefs, but it’s still sixth in the league in terms of opposing YPC (3.54).

The Jets will pressure Roethlisberger and take away his running game. Having said that, the Steelers still figure to put up tons of points, considering how bad New York’s secondary is.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets will have to keep it close on this side of the ball, given that Roethlisberger figures to light up the scoreboard. And they might actually have a chance to do so, as two of Pittsburgh’s top players, Troy Polamalu and Ryan Shazier, will be out of the lineup.

The Steelers have experienced life without Shazier this season, but not having Polamalu will be a different story. Polamalu has been enjoying a terrific season. He’s been holding Pittsburgh’s secondary together, and he’s been huge in terms of being able to stop the run. Not having him around will be a huge blow. The Steelers will have trouble containing the rush, so Chris Ivory and/or Chris Johnson could run well, which will set up easier opportunities for the quarterback.

Pittsburgh will definitely have issues covering. This was already a problem with how poor the corners have been playing, but Polamalu’s absence will magnify the secondary’s ineptitude. QBDK was decent last week, as the Jets found ways to get Percy Harvin involved. He should be even better in this matchup against a softer defense.

RECAP: This game has “classic Steelers stink bomb” – as Matvei called it – written all over it. Pittsburgh has never had success as a road favorite; the team is a dreadful 6-18 ATS in such situations following a victory under Mike Tomlin. With Polamalu and Shazier out, these teams are a lot closer than their records indicate, so this spread is just way too high; I have it at Steelers -3.

Something else to consider is the insane amount of action on the Steelers. Vegas stands to lose countless millions if they cover, so that’s another reason to take the Jets. The fix actually could be in; the Rooney family made its fortune as a sportsbook when sports betting was legal, so it’s no surprise that the Steelers have been a part of many controversial games involving the spread over the years.

I have to point out that the Jets +6 is available at Bovada. I’m going to lock in two units now. I highly doubt we’ll get a better number with some sharp action already coming in on New York.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I locked the Jets in at +6. I obviously don’t like them nearly as much at +3.5. I’d still take them, but for maybe a unit.

SUNDAY NOTES: The Jets are still available at +6 on Bovada. It’s +4 and +3.5 elsewhere. Two units at +6; one unit at +3.5. The sharps love the Jets.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Steelers are off two big victories over the Colts and Ravens. There could be a let down against the lowly Jets.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

There’s almost no money on New York.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 89% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Steelers are 24-13 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 37 instances.

Steelers are 14-24 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Steelers are 6-18 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.

Mike Tomlin is 3-15 ATS as a favorite after a win of 14+ in the regular season unless a bye is coming up.

Opening Line: Steelers -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Jets 20
Jets +6 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 20, Steelers 13

Atlanta Falcons (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7)
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Falcons -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -4.
Sunday, Nov. 9, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

Check out the newest chapter of the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons’ major issue has been well-documented. They simply haven’t been able to protect Matt Ryan, thanks to the numerous injuries they’ve incurred on the offensive line. However, things may be different in this game for two reasons:

First, the Falcons just had their bye. I know that most of their injured players aren’t coming back, but Jake Matthews was playing hurt, so he’s had valuable time to heal. Besides, Mike Tice is one of the top offensive line coaches in the business, so there’s a good chance he’ll figure something out and help improve the blocking, even if it’s only by just a little bit.

Second, Atlanta is going up against the sorry Buccaneers, who can only apply pressure with Gerald McCoy. The rest of the pass rush has been non-existent, so there’s a good chance Ryan will have more time to throw than usual. If so, he’ll torch a Tampa Bay secondary ranked 27th against aerial attacks in terms of YPA (7.90). Brian Hoyer just threw all over them, so why can’t Ryan?

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers screwed up in the second half of last week’s game by not feeding Bobby Rainey enough. Starting for an injured Doug Martin, Rainey was looking good, but Tampa stopped giving him the ball. Giving Rainey as many opportunities as possible would be greatly beneficial, as the Falcons are just 19th against the rush in terms of YPC (4.15).

Atlanta also doesn’t have much of a pass rush, so Glennon would definitely have a clean pocket if he were well-protected. Unfortunately for him, that’s not the case, as the Buccaneers have permitted 12 sacks in their previous three games. The Browns struggle to get to the quarterback; otherwise, that figure would be greater.

Despite this, I don’t trust the Buccaneers to move the chains very effectively. Glennon has not played well, and his only consistent target in recent weeks has been Mike Evans, as Vincent Jackson doesn’t seem to be completely trying.

RECAP: It may seem strange that a team as bad as the Falcons is favored on the road like this, but it makes sense because the Buccaneers have absolutely no homefield advantage. In fact, they have a clear disadvantage, as they’ve been a dreadful 11-30 against the spread as hosts in the past several years. I don’t even know how that’s possible.

With that in mind, this number is too short. The Falcons, who’ve had extra preparation, should be favored by four, according to my numbers. I’ll be picking the visitor, though I hate the amount of action coming in on them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s tons of money on the Falcons, but then again, the Buccaneers are a dead team with no homefield advantage. This is a bad spread, but I’m not excited to lay points with such a bad team.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps and public are pounding the Falcons, so Vegas has a liability on Tampa. It’s not that big of a deal though, as this is the least-bet game of the week.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Tons of money on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 78% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 9 the last 12 meetings.

Matt Ryan is 12-9 ATS as a road favorite (9-7 ATS outdoors).

Road Team is 51-31 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 11-30 ATS at home in the previous 41 instances.

Buccaneers are 5-15 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 20
Falcons -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 27, Buccaneers 17

Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games
Denver�at�Oakland, St. Louis�at�Arizona, NY Giants�at�Seattle, Chicago�at�Green Bay, Carolina�at�Philadelphia

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)