Charlie Campbell
|
|
John Mateer Prospect Preview
By Charlie Campbell
Career Recap:
Mateer had a breakout season for Washington State in 2024 and impressed in his first year as a starter. He completed 65 percent of his passes for 3,139 yards with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Mateer has some mobility and is a gritty competitor. After the season, Mateer was highly sought after in the transfer portal and ended up at Oklahoma.
In his debut with the Sooners, Mateer completed 62 percent of his passes for 2,885 yards with 14 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and eight rushing touchdowns. Mateer had a great start to the season, but a month into the year he broke his thumb on his throwing hand. He had surgery, and returned only 17 days later to play Texas. That game was ugly for Mateer, as were others in the weeks to come. He clearly rushed back from the injury and could not throw the ball with the velocity and accuracy he had to open the season. Oklahoma also was severly lacking in receivers who could get open for Mateer. Late in the season, he started to play better and helped the Sooners advance into the college football playoff. In the playoff game against Alabama, Mateer completed 26-of-41 passes for 307 yards with two touchdowns and an interception as the Crimson Tide won 34-24. Mateer could have entered the draft, but wisely decided to return to Norman for the 2026 season.
2026 Season Outlook:
Mateer will take on a lot of tough opponents in 2026. The best games to watch him could include Michigan (Sep. 12), Georgia (Sep. 26), Texas (Oct. 10), Ole Miss (Nov. 14), and Texas A&M (Nov. 21).
Prospect Summary:
As a prospect, Mateer enters the 2026 season as a mystery. There are good plays on tape from Washington State and Oklahoma where he looks like an NFL starter and a more athletic version of Baker Mayfield. Team sources have compared Mateer to Mayfield as well, but that is when Mateer is playing well. However, there are also games and plays where Mateer looks like a mid-round backup. Thus, everything is riding on the 2026 season for Mateer.
On the plus side, Mateer has a quality arm with good athleticism, running ability, and is a gritty competitor. Mateer can fire some lasers into tight windows, and he has the arm to push the ball vertically. He is an aggressive passer who will challenge defenses downfield. He has an above-average arm and can spin some lasers in the short to intermediate part of the field. His accuracy can be streaky, and while he will make some beautiful throws, he has some get-away-from-him. Part of that issue could be the thumb injury on his throwing hand, but he still needs to get more consistent as a passer.
Mateer is a dual-threat quarterback as he can be a dangerous runner. Mateer is capable on designed runs and is dangerous in the red zone. He is a mobile quarterback who is quick-footed to dodge pass rushers and has elusiveness in the pocket. With his running ability, Mateer is able to bail out his line, and he makes some nice throws on the run.
There is a lot that Mateer needs to improve upon in 2026. His decision-making needs improvement, as Mateer can be reckless as a gunslinger with some dangerous passes and then taking some bad sacks, waiting for a big play to emerge rather than taking a check-down or throwing it away. Mateer lacks anticipation, so he needs to show growth in his ability to anticipate as a passer. Along with those issues, getting more consistent with his accuracy is a necessity. Mateer needs to become a more accurate, intelligent, polished, and consistent pocket passer to become a pro starter.
2027 NFL Draft Expectations:
Entering the 2026 season, Mateer has a wide range. It would not surprise this analyst if he becomes a first-round pick, and I would not be surprised if he ends up being a mid-round pick. That range will be figured out during the 2026 season. Check out my latest 2027 NFL Mock Draft to see where Mateer is projected.
RELATED LINKS:
NFL Picks - Sept. 9
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 7
2027 NFL Mock Draft - Sept. 7
NFL Power Rankings - Sept. 2
Walt