NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)

NFL Picks (2014): 72-72-6 (+$145)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 10, 5:55 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-8)
Line: Broncos by 12. Total: 50.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -12.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -13.5.
Sunday, Nov. 9, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. It’s not too late to enter, so sign up soon!

This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 110 remain. We lost 161 people to the Cowboys in Week 8, but only nine dropped out last weekend.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos are going to score lots of points. The end.

Oh, you want actual analysis for this side of the ball? Fine. Peyton Manning struggled in Foxboro – by his own admission – but he had to deal with fierce winds, surprisingly frigid conditions and a tough defense. He’ll have none of those problems in Oakland. The Raiders have recorded the fewest sacks in the NFL, and they are 26th in pass defense (7.79 YPA) as a result.

The Raiders are surprisingly somewhat decent against the run – they’re 14th in that department in terms of YPC – but it won’t matter. Manning will be pissed coming off such an embarrassing defeat, so I expect his very best this Sunday.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: It won’t be an issue of how much Manning will score because I expect him to put up points on almost all of his drives. The Raiders will have to keep up, and that could prove to be difficult, considering that the Broncos have been so dominant in every defensive facet this season.

Denver can get after the quarterback quite well. With two future Hall of Famers rushing the passer on each side, the Broncos are tied for seventh in sacks (24). They’re second versus the pass as a result (6.25 YPA). Derek Carr has done a decent job against some struggling defenses this year, but I don’t see how he’ll move the chains consistently this Sunday. He’ll make some completions to the emerging Mychal Rivera because the Broncos aren’t good against tight ends, but that’s about it.

Carr won’t have any help from his ground attack either. The Broncos are at the very top of the run defense rankings, surrendering 3.04 YPC to the opposition. It’s not like the Raiders run the ball well anyway.

RECAP: This is a very high spread, but I’m not sure it’s high enough. My projected number is Broncos -13.5. That said, I’m taking the Raiders. I’m most definitely not betting them, but they could cover because Vegas has such a huge liability with Denver this week. The sportsbooks will lose millions if the Broncos cover because no one is betting Oakland. Also, consider that this is the Raiders’ Super Bowl. I have no idea how much that’ll mean, but perhaps they’ll keep this close with some fluky plays.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is pounding the Broncos like there’s no tomorrow, and this game violates the 80-20 rule by a wide margin. It has to be Raiders or nothing, so in other words, this contest is unbettable.

SUNDAY NOTES: Vegas is going to lose way too much money if the Broncos cover. Don’t bet Denver. I can’t recommend taking Oakland though.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

This is Oakland’s Super Bowl.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Who in the world is going to bet on Oakland?

Percentage of money on Denver: 92% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Road Team has won 9 of the last 12 meetings (Broncos last 5).

Peyton Manning is 41-26 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

John Fox is 6-1 ATS in his second-consecutive road game with the Broncos.

Opening Line: Broncos -11.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Broncos 26, Raiders 16
Raiders +12 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 50.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 41, Raiders 17

St. Louis Rams (3-5) at Arizona Cardinals (7-1)
Line: Cardinals by 7. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cardinals -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -10.
Sunday, Nov. 9, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 7! Emmitt and his crew head west, but are trapped inside a sinister town.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Following the Week 9 games, Deion Sanders noted that the Cardinals are 37th against the pass while reading off a paper. I’m not sure what that meant, but Arizona has not posted the prettiest statistical figures this season. However, part of that has to do with some injuries they’ve incurred. Tyrann Mathieu was out for the first part of the season, while Calais Campbell missed some action. With both back, it’s no wonder the Cardinals dominated the Cowboys last week.

Granted, Arizona was battling Brandon Weeden, but it’s not like Austin Davis will provide a greater challenge. Davis made some mistakes last week, but the 49ers just couldn’t capitalize because they had their own offensive issues. I’ll get to whether the Cardinals will have more success offensively in a bit, but there’s very little doubt that St. Louis will have trouble moving the chains again. The Rams’ offensive line is ravaged by injury, while Brian Quick being out of the lineup also hurts.

The Rams’ only semblance of offense last week came via the ground attack, as Tre Mason gained 65 yards on 19 carries. I doubt Mason will have that same type of success; while the 49ers are 13th against the run (3.92 YPC), the Cardinals are fourth (3.36 YPC). Arizona was the first team to limit DeMarco Murray to fewer than 100 rushing yards, so containing Mason won’t be much of an issue.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: So, will the Cardinals be able to score, unlike the 49ers? Probably. San Francisco did a terrible job of dealing with the pressure the Rams’ front line brought, but Arizona doesn’t have the same issues with its front. While the 49ers have permitted the third-most sacks in the NFL, the Cardinals have allowed the sixth-fewest.

Unlike Colin Kaepernick, Carson Palmer will have time to survey the field and find Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd for big gains. The Rams have big holes in their back seven, which Arizona’s two dynamic wideouts should be able to exploit. I’m also expecting a big game from Andre Ellington, who will do lots of damage as a pass-catcher while leaking out of the backfield.

Ellington, however, will have some trouble running the ball. The Rams, who just limited Frank Gore on the ground, are 10th against rushing attacks, holding opposing backs to 3.82 YPC.

RECAP: The Cardinals historically haven’t done well as large home favorites. Going against them in such a role is usually a good idea, but I’ll make an exception this time. The Rams are just in an awful spot, as this is their third-consecutive road game. They’ll be exhausted, especially after such a draining victory in San Francisco.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, I hate taking the Cardinals at this high of a spread, but this is the Rams’ third-consecutive road game, which is usually a bad spot.

SUNDAY NOTES: There’s some sharp support on the Rams, but it’s their third-straight road game. I don’t like either side.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

The Cardinals could look past the Rams because they have the Lions and Seahawks coming up after this game.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Lots of money on the host.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 77% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Cardinals have won 11 of the last 15 meetings.

Cardinals are 3-11 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more the previous 14 instances. ???

Rams are 26-40 ATS on grass since 2001.

Jeff Fisher is 45-30 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Opening Line: Cardinals -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Cardinals 23, Rams 12
Cardinals -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 31, Rams 14

New York Giants (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-3)
Line: Seahawks by 10. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -7.5.
Sunday, Nov. 9, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Kyoto and Japanese food.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants couldn’t get out of their own way Monday night. It was a truly embarrassing performance comprised of countless drops, procedural mistakes and other errors. They’ve had a habit of making these sorts of blunders this season, which would’ve spelled big trouble with a game coming up in Seattle last year. However, the Seahawks just haven’t been the same team in 2014.

One of the greatest differences for Seattle has been its lacking pass rush. The team has the fourth-fewest sacks in the NFL, which has made it very difficult for the Legion of Boom. Teams can actually pass on the Seahawks now; even Derek Carr was decent this past Sunday. Seattle has especially been poor against tight ends, so Eli Manning could rebound by targeting Larry Donnell and the emerging Odell Beckham.

The Giants will need to run the ball better, but that will be difficult. Not only are the Seahawks still stout against the rush, but Rashad Jennings is expected to miss this contest. That means more of the plodding Andre Williams, who has struggled to even gain a single yard on most of his attempts. New York would be better off completely abandoning the ground game until Jennings returns, but Tom Coughlin is too stubborn to do that.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks also have their issues on this side of the ball. Russell Wilson has regressed the past two weeks, but it hasn’t been all his fault; the offensive line has given him no time in recent games. Part of that has been because of injuries. Center Max Unger has been out, while left tackle Russell Okung wasn’t available last week. Okung will return, but the interior will still have trouble keeping pass-rushers out of the backfield.

The Giants put a tremendous amount of pressure on Andrew Luck, so if that continues, they could have success limiting Seattle’s offense. However, Wilson will definitely pick up some first downs with his legs, and he’ll still move the chains aerially on occasion, as the Giants have injury issues of their own in the secondary.

Having said that, this is still a decent matchup for the Seahawks because the Giants can’t stop the run. They surrender 4.70 YPC (28th in the NFL), and they’ve allowed about 130 rushing yards per game in their previous four contests. Marshawn Lynch hasn’t enjoyed the success he’s used to this season, but he should be able to have a huge performance this Sunday.

RECAP: The Seahawks have enjoyed a fantastic homefield advantage throughout the years, but it wasn’t there in a loss to Dallas or in a sluggish outing against Oakland. If the Cowboys and Raiders could keep it close, I don’t see why New York couldn’t.

Having said that, the Giants are in a tough spot, as they have to travel across the country on a short work week, which hurts. They could still cover this high number, given the Seahawks’ recent struggles, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Seahawks have some linemen returning this week, so Russell Wilson’s protection will be better. However, I don’t trust the Seahawks, who just haven’t been the same this year. The sharps feel the same way, as they’ve been betting the Giants.

SUNDAY NOTES: The Giants are +10 on Bovada. Just a heads up if you like them. I wouldn’t bet either side.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 59% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Giants are 39-22 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 31-22 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Seahawks are 27-12 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -9.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Giants 17
Giants +10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 38, Giants 17

Chicago Bears (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)
Line: Packers by 8. Total: 53.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -10.5.
Sunday, Nov. 9, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Packers.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I suggested in my NFL Power Rankings that because Jay Cutler doesn’t care about winning, he may not even care that he’s on a bye. I joked that Cutler spent the entire week just sitting on the couch and staring blankly into space. That was only a half-joke, as I truly believe something like that happened.

The Bears have all the pieces to succeed, so it’s a shame that Cutler ruined this season. He’s made countless errors in almost every, prompting Brandon Marshall to finally snap and complain to the media about it. This resulted in dissension in the locker room, which fueled that ugly blowout loss at New England prior to the bye.

The Packers have owned Cutler, and I don’t see why that wouldn’t continue. Cutler had a decent first half versus Green Bay in the Week 4 meeting, but he had a meltdown following intermission, hurling two interceptions. The Bears need to keep the ball out of Cutler’s hands by establishing the run with Matt Forte, given that Green Bay is just 23rd against the rush in terms of YPC. However, that could be difficult to do if the Packers jump out to a big lead.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I fully expect the Packers to do just that. Aaron Rodgers absolutely torched Chicago back in Week 4, going 22-of-28 for 302 yards and four touchdowns. He actually had a fifth score, but that was called back because of a penalty. The Bears have terrible defensive personnel, so it’s not like they could’ve done anything during their week off to get their act together.

The one concern with Rodgers is his hamstring. He tweaked it at New Orleans a couple of Sunday nights ago and struggled afterward. However, Rodgers says his hamstring is fine, and he’s had an extra week to let it heal.

Rodgers will get some help in the running game from Eddie Lacy. The second-year back was explosive at New Orleans, so perhaps that’ll transition over to this contest where Lacy will battle a ground defense ranked in the middle of the pack. Green Bay posted a 17-48 rushing line at Chicago back in Week 4, but I expect that to be much better this time around.

RECAP: I like the Packers enough to wager three units on them. Here’s why:

1. Rodgers is coming off a loss. That pretty much makes Green Bay an automatic bet, as Rodgers is 15-5 against the spread following a defeat.

2. Rodgers is also very difficult to beat at home. The Packers are 23-12 ATS at home since 2010.

3. Mike McCarthy has been brilliant with extra time to prepare. He’s a perfect 8-0 ATS off a bye, and as mentioned, when two teams have had the week off, the favorite tends to cover because the better team benefits more from the extra time.

This would be more than a three-unit wager if it weren’t for all of the public action. Bettors are going to pound the Packers to either recoup their losses or double up their winnings, so the sportsbooks will want Chicago to beat the number. I hate going against the books in primetime games, but Green Bay just seems like the definite side to me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, I hate how much money is on the Packers, but they’ve dominated the Bears, and Aaron Rodgers has been terrific off a loss and following a bye. The professional bettors have not gotten involved.

SUNDAY NOTES: Wow, this spread has soared Sunday morning. It’s now up to -8. I’d bet it now because I’d be shocked if it went down to -7.

SUNDAY NIGHT UPDATE: Uh oh. Vegas lost so much money today. They got help from the Jets and 49ers, but they were absolutely slaughtered in the other games. That’s not good news for Packer bettors. I’d drop this to two units if I didn’t have it locked in. The spread rising to -8.5 or -9 doesn’t help.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

The money is all over the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 84% (32,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Jay Cutler is 1-9 vs. the Packers.

Bears are 29-19 ATS in November since 2001.

Jay Cutler is 33-62 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Packers are 23-12 ATS at home since 2010.

Mike McCarthy is 8-0 ATS after a bye.

Aaron Rodgers is 52-31 ATS since 2009 (8-4 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Aaron Rodgers is 15-5 ATS after a loss (just 7-4 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Packers -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Packers 41, Bears 27
Packers -8 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 53 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 55, Bears 14

Carolina Panthers (3-5-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)
Line: Eagles by 7. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Eagles -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -8.
Monday, Nov. 10, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Charles Davis, the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Philadelphia, the greatest place in the world! Guys, let’s cut to the chase. My Eagles are winning tonight. No ifs, ands or buts. But because we’re on national TV tonight, I’ve made the appropriate plans to make sure we win. I’ve placed land mines on the field, and I’ve alerted my best friend Zach Ertz where they are, so only the Panthers trip on that. Ha! Suck it, Panther idiots!

Emmitt: Tyrell, I do not understanding what you saying. You say you put minds on the football field, but how do brain mean that the Eagle going to beat the Panther? And how have you becomed friend with Zach Hurts. Last time I checker, you and himselves are not friend on BookFace. Or I mean, Book… uhh… book…

Reilly: SHUT UP EMMITT! HE SAID HE DIDN’T GET TO GO ON FACEBOOK YET BECAUSE HE’S BEEN BUSY EVEN THOUGHT HE UPDATED HIS STATUS 39 TIMES SINCE I ASKED TO BE HIS FRIEND, OK!?

Edwards: SOMEONE’S STALKING! YOU ARE STALKING! KEVIN IS STALKING! KEVIN IS STALKING ZACH ERTZ! KEVIN IS ST… KEVIN IS CHOKING ME! KEVIN HAS HIS HANDS AROUND MY THROAT! KEVIN IS LOOKING ANGRILY AT ME!

Reilly: DIE SCUM! HOW DARE YOU SAY THAT I’M STALKING ZACH ERTZ!?

Edwards: KEVIN WON’T STOP CHOKING ME! KEVIN WON’T STOP SUFFOCATING ME! KEVIN WON’T STOP STRANGLING ME! KEVIN WON’T STOP GRASPING MY NECK! HERM CAN’T BREATHE! HERM IS LOSING OXYGEN! HERM IS ABOUT TO PASS OUT! HERM IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE! HERM IS… Herm is…

Tollefson: Reilly, what are you doing? How could you choke a grown man like that? Don’t you have any respect? Or common sense? Everyone knows that you should only choke women. Like, if you’re holding a woman captive in your apartment, and you order her to cook and clean naked, and she burns your food, then you do it. Or, if she misses a spot while cleaning, you do it. Or, if you just needed to relieve some stress, you do it. There’s nothing to be gained from choking a man.

Millen: Oh believe me, Tolly, there’s plenty to be gained from choking a man. When I have multiple 100-percent USDA Men in my hotel room, one inserts his kielbasa into my backside, and sometimes I’ll choke the other, playfully. Why don’t you come over one night with a 100-percent USDA Man friend of yours, and we’ll ride each other all night long?

Tollefson: Because I’m not gay, you pervert!

Millen: Who said anything about being gay? There’s nothing gay about sticking kielbasas into men’s backsides!

Fouts: There are actually plenty of gay things about doing that, Kevin. Being gay is when a man has sexual relations with another man. It is also gay when a woman has sexual relations with another woman. It is not gay when a man has sexual relations with a woman. It is also not gay if a woman has sexual relations with a man. You might be wondering what the difference is between a man having sexual relations with a woman and a woman having sexual relations with a man, and the truth is, I just don’t know. You’d think they would be the same, but in one instance, man comes before woman, and in the other, woman comes before man. Yet, in the first instance, woman comes after man, and in the second, man comes after woman. Before and after are both opposites, so a man having sex with a woman and a woman having sex with a man would also be opposites, and that, my friends is what we call a paradox. Both are considered straight, but because they are opposites, one must not be straight, meaning that sometimes, when men and women have sex with each other, they are having gay sexual relations.

Reilly: You’re a f***ing idiot, Fouts. Almost as stupid as Herm for thinking that Zach Ertz and I aren’t best friends on Facebook because he rejected my friend request 38 times.

Charles Davis: Did you know there are other ways to be someone’s friend, Kevin? You can be friends with someone on Myspace, Kevin. Myspace came before Facebook, Kevin. What about Twitter, Kevin? You can follow Zach Ertz on Twitter, Kevin. But you can only do that if Zach has a Twitter account, Kevin. How about LinkedIn, Kevin? Then there’s Instagram, Kevin. Don’t forget Tumblr, Kevin. What about Friendster, Kevin? The first six letters of Friendster spell something, Kevin. Can you figure out what that is, Kevin? What’s your first guess, Kevin? You guessed “baseball cap,” Kevin? That’s not six letters, Kevin. Strike one, Kevin. What about toilet, Kevin? That’s six letters, but the wrong ones, Kevin. Strike two, Kevin. You want to forfeit your third strike, Kevin? OK, Kevin. It spells “Friend,” Kevin. Close, but no cigar, Kevin!

Reilly: THAT’S IT! I DON’T CARE IF MY EAGLES WIN ANYMORE BECAUSE I WANT ALL OF YOU TO DIE! We’ll be back after this!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Chip Kelly said that the offense didn’t skip a beat when Mark Sanchez replaced Nick Foles at Houston. He was absolutely right; the scoring unit played exactly like it did with Foles under center. There were some big plays – Sanchez immediately hit Jeremy Maclin for a huge gain – but there were also some turnovers, as Sanchez tossed two interceptions.

Sanchez should have a better game Monday night. There are a few reasons for that. First of all, he’ll have the first-team reps in practice this week, so he’ll be more prepared. Second, it’s sounding like Evan Mathis will be back in the lineup. Mathis is one of the best guards in the NFL, and his return will be huge for the Eagles going forward.

And third, Carolina’s defense stinks. The Panthers fail to produce any sort of pass rush, so Mathis being back will only make things more difficult for Carolina’s pedestrian front. The Eagles may not even need to pass protect all that much, as they figure to have tremendous success running the ball. Carolina is just 30th against ground attacks, surrendering 4.89 YPC.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s hard to tell if the Panthers are struggling more on offense or defense. Their stop unit has been very poor this season, but so has their offensive line, a group that has surrendered 10 sacks in the previous three games. That’s quite a bit considering that Cam Newton is so mobile.

The Eagles, who have registered 20 sacks in their previous five games, will swarm the pocket relentlessly and make life very difficult for Newton. Philadelphia’s secondary has had major problems this season, but the unit won’t have much to worry about in this game. Newton won’t have any time in the pocket, and he has just one NFL-caliber receiver to throw to anyway in Kelvin Benjamin.

The Panthers can also forget about running the ball. They don’t do that very well, as DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are mediocre at best, while Philadelphia is eighth against the rush, surrendering 3.69 YPC. That figure will probably worsen with DeMeco Ryans out for the year, but the Eagles shouldn’t have a problem dealing with Williams and Stewart behind a ravaged offensive line.

RECAP: This number is a bit short, as I have the Eagles as an eight-point favorite on my calculated line. So, believe it or not, Philadelphia fans, but I’m picking your Eagles to cover for the first time all year. Yes, it’s true. Unfortunately, this won’t be any sort of wager because Philly has a tough game coming up against the Packers, so the team may not be fully focused.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Eagles, but that’s more of a fade of the Panthers, who are just terrible. I’m down on Philadelphia because DeMeco Ryans’ absence will hurt, but the team should still be able to win by more than a touchdown over miserable Carolina. The sharps have not gotten involved at all, and that’s not a surprise, given that these are two bet-against teams.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

A decent amount of action on the host.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 65% (59,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Cam Newton is 16-9 ATS off a loss as long as he’s not favored by 7+.

Eagles are 11-27 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -5.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Eagles 26, Panthers 17
Eagles -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 45, Panthers 21

Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games
Cleveland�at�Cincinnati, Kansas City�at�Buffalo, Miami�at�Detroit, San Francisco�at�New Orleans, Pittsburgh�at�NY Jets, Atlanta�at�Tampa Bay, Dallas�at�Jacksonville, Tennessee�at�Baltimore

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Dolphins +8.5, Packers -1 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)