NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)

NFL Picks (2014): 29-33-1 (-$930)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 29, 4:45 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games

New York Giants (1-2) at Washington Redskins (1-2)
Line: Redskins by 3.5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Redskins -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -6.5.
Thursday, Sept. 25, 8:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

WEEK 3 RECAP: It’s nice to bounce back from a losing week. Going into Monday night, I’m 6-8-1 overall, but +$240 on my unit selections. I hit three of my top four plays, with the Colts, Saints and Chiefs all covering. The Packers disappointed me.

I can’t complain too much about Week 3, but the worst part was the Cowboys-Rams contest. St. Louis was up 17-0, but did so many things to cost itself the win, and more importantly, the cover. I had the Rams for two units, so I would’ve been 7-7-1, +$660 had I nailed that selection. It was especially painful because I had them in the SuperContest. I would’ve gone 4-1 for the second time in three weeks had they beaten the number. Instead, I was 3-2 in Week 3, and I’m just 9-6 overall thus far.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

WEEK 4 BETTING TRENDS: I’ve identified poisonous teams that I would never bet on to save me from some bad picks. People asked me if the Buccaneers deserve to be added to the list. I’m not completely sure because they’ll be so much better once Gerald McCoy, Mason Foster, Michael Johnson and Doug Martin all return to the lineup. Plus, Mike Glennon might actually be able to move the chains. I’ll add them with an asterisk, and they’ll be a permanent member if they get embarrassed again this week.

Poisonous Teams:
Raiders
Giants
Jaguars
Buccaneers*

Last week, I discussed point value in terms of the Las Vegas Hilton advance spread. How did that dynamic do?

Before Week 2	After Week 2	ATS Result
Giants -3 +100	Giants +2.5	Giants cover
Chargers -2.5	Chargers +1	Chargers cover
Raiders +12	Raiders +14.5	Raiders cover
Packers -1	Packers +1	Packers lose ATS

I’d take 3-1 against the spread. Of course, the only team I picked was Green Bay. Derp dee derp dee doo on my part.

I’ll try to be smarter this week. Here are this week’s value lines:

Before Week 3	After Week 3
Vikings -1.5	Vikings +3
Jaguars +9.5	Jaguars +13
Patriots -6.5	Patriots -3.5
Dolphins -7	Dolphins -4

I’m not surprised by any of these line movements. The Dolphins lost as a favorite to the winless Chiefs; the Patriots barely beat the hapless Raiders; Jacksonville was once again blown out; while the Falcons dominated on Thursday night. It’s worth noting that the Vikings -1.5 spread was with Adrian Peterson, but considering that Peterson is worth 1-1.5 points – Vegas moved the Saints from -9 to -10.5 when Peterson was suspended again – we’re still left with about three points of value on Minnesota.

Speaking of the Falcons, I’d like to take a look at how teams have done going into and coming out of Thursday night games. There’s no doubt that teams’ mentalities have changed ever since the NFL implemented Thursday night games as an every-week event. I’ve mentioned that favorites have been dreadful prior to Thursday. How bad have they been?

Favorites ATS before Thursday night: 8-24-2
Underdogs ATS before Thursday night: 13-14

It’s worth noting that there’s no discrepancy between home and road underdogs in this dynamic; hosts are an even 7-7 ATS, while visitors are 6-7. The same goes for favorites (8-22-1 home; 0-2 road).

That’s been an obvious trend, but what about teams that just played on Thursday night? I’ve found a couple of interesting trends:

Road favorites coming off Thursday night wins of 10-plus are 9-18-1 against the spread.

Underdogs coming off Thursday night losses of 14-plus are 22-8 against the spread (excluding Weeks 16-17).

Both of these make sense. Teams that have won in blowouts tend to be overconfident, and with the extra time off, all they hear about is how great they are. Conversely, teams that are blown out have more time to make adjustments. The Steelers, by the way, fit this dynamic in their victory against Carolina. We’ll see how they do versus the Buccaneers, who will be in the same situation this week.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Giants tried their best to lose yet another game to the Texans. They had their usual miscues, but Ryan Fitzpatrick was so inept that it didn’t matter. Kirk Cousins obviously won’t play nearly as poorly.

Through two games, Cousins has completed 64.2 percent of his passes, maintained an 8.4 YPA and thrown five touchdowns compared to just one interception. He’s been a huge upgrade over Robert Griffin, to say the least. The Giants currently surrender 8.44 yards per pass attempt, which is 31st in the NFL despite the fact that two of the three quarterbacks they’ve faced were Fitzpatrick and Drew Stanton.

Conversely, the Giants have stopped the run very well. This normally wouldn’t be good news for Alfred Morris, but Jon Beason’s injury must be factored in. New York didn’t have Beason last week, but it’s not like the team had to worry very much about Fitzpatrick beating them downfield.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants won’t be able to afford committing their normal mistakes because they’ll be facing a competent scoring attack this week. That means protecting Eli Manning will be paramount. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem very feasible.

The Redskins have a dominant pass rush, led by Jason Hatcher, who has been incredible as a new addition. Manning is protected poorly, so Washington figures to be able to put plenty of heat on him. It’ll have to because DeAngelo Hall’s absence will hurt. Hall tore his Achilles last week, and it was no coincidence that the Eagles mounted a charge when Washington’s starting corner exited the game.

Manning will also have to operate without Rashad Jennings breaking big gains. Jennings had a career performance against the Texans, but he won’t be able to sustain his success Thursday because Washington is ranked third against the run in terms of YPC. It just limited LeSean McCoy to 22 yards on 20 carries.

RECAP: There’s been some sharp movement on the Giants, but they’ve taken the spread down from +4.5 to +3.5, where we’re seeing value on the host. The Redskins are the better team, and I like them to cover. I’m not buying New York yet, and Washington is the better team. Thursday night home favorites are 3-0 straight up and against the spread, and I expect that record to improve to 4-0.

Oh, and if you want a nice trend that favors the Redskins, teams that previously outgained their opponents while tallying 450-plus yards in a loss are 25-8 against the spread (dating back to 1989) the following week as home favorites of less than a touchdown.

Again, Week 4 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. I’ll announce via Twitter @walterfootball when each selection is posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Giants, just in case you didn’t want to follow my pick. All my numbers still say the Redskins are the right side for a two-unit pick, but I hated seeing things like, “Are the Redskins a lock?” on SportsCenter. Just remember that sometimes the square side is the correct one, and that Vegas took lots of money from the public during the first two weeks of the season.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

The Redskins suffered an emotional loss against the Eagles. They might be up for a divisional matchup, but I don’t know if they’ll respect the Giants as much.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 59% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 12 of the last 16 meetings.

Giants are 39-19 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 30-19 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Redskins are 7-14 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Redskins -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Redskins 27, Giants 20
Redskins -3.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 45, Redskins 14

Miami Dolphins (1-2) vs. Oakland Raiders (0-3)
Line: Dolphins by 3.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Dolphins -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -4.
Sunday, Sept. 28, 1:00 ET
At Wembley Stadium, London
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

VEGAS UPDATE: The Vegas sportsbooks had record winnings on the Sunday of Week 1 and collected lots of money the following week. They had to give some money back to the public this past week, and they managed to do just that. Of the 10 highly bet teams, six of them covered (Falcons, Cowboys, Saints, Bengals, Colts, Bears). Vegas won with the Lions, Raiders, Cardinals and Steelers, so it wasn’t a total loss for the house. The good news is that casual bettors can continue to gamble without selling any of their organs on the black market anytime soon.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Miami Herald reported Wednesday morning that some Dolphin players were pissed because their defensive coordinator put them in bad positions during their loss to the Chiefs. Cameron Wake, for example, had to cover Joe McKnight out of the slot and was consequently burned for a touchdown.

I didn’t think the Dolphins would be prepared for their game against the desperate Chiefs because they had a trip to London coming up – teams are now 5-11 against the spread prior to flying to England – but they’ll at least be more focused and prepared for the Raiders, who have a similar-style quarterback they’ll have to defend. Like Alex Smith, Derek Carr will spend most of his time dinking, dunking and scrambling for first downs.

The Raiders can’t sustain drives nearly as well though, so Miami’s defense should be able to limit them. I don’t trust Oakland’s offensive line to protect Carr, so Wake should be able to have a big game unless he’s asked to cover another speedy back.

MIAMI OFFENSE: There are some rumblings that Matt Moore might replace Ryan Tannehill in the near future. The 2012 first-rounder has not developed nearly as well as the Dolphins had planned, but then again, he was overdrafted, so maybe Miami should have expected this. Tannehill hasn’t been able to connect at all with Mike Wallace, and he’s struggling to identify open receivers, holding on to the ball too long as a consequence. He had a great matchup against a banged-up Kansas City defense this past week, yet he failed to complete 50 percent of his passes.

The Raiders also struggle to cover for the most part, and I expect Tannehill to have a rebound performance. As mentioned, I don’t think the Dolphins were focused in their matchup against the Chiefs. If Tannehill plays like crap again, however, Miami should probably consider Moore so he could at least salvage a wild-card possibility before everyone is fired.

Lamar Miller should be able to help Tannehill keep his job, at least for the near future. Miller, who is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, has a nice matchup this week against an Oakland squad that is 24th against the run in terms of YPC (4.55). The Raiders have surrendered 147 rushing yards per game this season, and I don’t see them having much success against Miller.

RECAP: This is one of those value games I talked about earlier. The Dolphins were -7 a week ago in this matchup, yet they’re just -4 now because they overlooked a desperate team at lost as a consequene. The spread actually opened at -3.5, yet it’s been bet up despite some public action on the underdog.

I’m not a big fan of this pick because I’m worried about some dissension in the locker room regarding the frustration with the coaching staff, but there’s too much value with the Dolphins not to take them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no opinion on this game, and it doesn’t appear as though the professional bettors do either.

SUNDAY UPDATE: There’s been some sharp action on the Dolphins, but not much. This is a difficult game to bet on.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Slight lean on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 60% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Underdog is 52-23 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 75 games.

Dolphins are 2-13 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Joe Philbin is 0-4 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Dolphins 26, Raiders 20
Dolphins -3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 38, Raiders 14

Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (2-1)
Line: Packers by 1.5. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -4.
Sunday, Sept. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Packers.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards:

Walter Derpinksi… You keep telling everyone how overrated the Bengals are but they keep winning. I want to give you a Princess Bride… I don’t think that word means what you think it means!

Sure I do. The movie. And I have a copy, thanks.

Hey Walt, remember last week when I told you to reduce your units on the Jaguars cause Cyprien was out? Youre making another typical square mistake by betting the Colts this week. Cyprien is back and the Jags play their home opener. 7 points is way too much and whenever teams get embarrassed the way the Jags did they bounce back. Jags are the play this week. But typical squares like you get sucked in easily.

Damn it all to hell, why did I get sucked into wining three units? Argh!

OMG, just read over your write up on tb vs atl last night where you say you were really torn and though of picking Tampa to side with the sharps! Lmao! I wish you would have put 4 units on then, wow, pathetic. AND NOW, your big picks of the week are elite qb nut hugger specials, hmmmm, Andrew luck’s sweaty jock…check! Drew breeze…check! ROGERS……CHECK! hey, why not throw in Brady and Manning to round off your big unit picks you idiot, just take all the best QB’s in the NFL, safer than taking the Jags, at least these picks may have a fighting chance but none of us need you to tell us this, right?

Hmm… maybe because, I don’t know, elite quarterbacks cover more often than not off a loss. By the way, any grown man who writes “OMG” cannot be respected by anyone.

@ WALTER: let me guess, your play of the week is the jags! then oakland! hahahaha dammmmm you got your azz handed to you last week, all those write ups you do down the toilet bowl, this is the biggest joke site ever, the laugh of the town, any espn pundit would crap all over your site, get a clue walty boy, stick with the fantasy girl stuff cause handicapping is for men, not a biatch like you.

change your profile pic too we all know you have never come close to hittin some fine tail, unless of course you paid for it, but you have never received voluntary fine tail in your life, just fat ugly @#$@es…let me guess your response is- yea so what! who cares!

hahahaha go suck tom brady millimeter pener you flamer!

If only Brady would let me. All of my dreams would come true. Oh, and my girlfriend is pretty damn hot. Sorry to disappoint you.

Wow, Walt. You had 24 hours to come up with a response to Bills and Bengals fans, and your witty retort is that they “are too stupid to watch or understand Game of Thrones?” That’s what you came up with? That would have been laughed at when I was in middle school.

Liar! Game of Thrones wasn’t around when you were in middle school.

your picks and analysis couldn’t get any @#$@tier, could it? Lol……go Philly! I fear you are a Luck jockstrap sniffer. I’m very serious that did lay a big bet on the game to fade you ineptitude! Gl jock sniffer

Thanks. I’ve been scouring eBay in search of Andrew Luck’s jockstrap. Will pay big bucks. Can you help me out?

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: What’s up with Aaron Rodgers? How did he manage to score only seven points against the Lions? I get that his offensive line was complete garbage and couldn’t pass protect against Ndamukong Suh and Detroit’s front, and I also understand that his receivers dropped some passes, but it’s not like Rodgers hasn’t dealt with poor protection and dropped balls before. Scoring only seven points is inexcusable.

Having said that, Rodgers is one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL, so I expect him to bounce back with a strong performance. It helps that he’ll be facing a much weaker defense this time. The Bears just allowed Geno Smith and the Jets to tally 400-plus net yards on Monday night, so Rodgers will be able to do the same thing. After all, Chicago doesn’t have much of a pass rush. The Bears aren’t incompetent in terms of getting to the quarterback, but they only have one player who can generate consistent pressure (Willie Young; not Jared Allen, as ESPN would lead you to believe).

The Bears will be so worried about defending the pass with Charles Tillman, Ryan Mundy and Chris Conte all out that they won’t be able to focus on the rush at all. They’re currently 26th against ground attacks (4.9 YPC), so Eddie Lacy will finally have the breakout performance his fantasy owners have been desperate for.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears should be able to match the Packers on the scoreboard. Green Bay’s defensive struggles have been well-publicized. They’re completely inept in terms of stopping the run and are 30th in defensive efficiency as a consequence. Letroy Guion, in particular, has been brutal. He’s doing a poor job replacing the injured B.J. Raji.

The Packers won’t be able to come up with much of a solution in a span of seven days, so the Bears should be able to take advantage of this liability. Matt Forte has been bottled up by the 49ers and Jets, but he’ll break free now that he gets to battle a weaker defensive unit.

Forte’s running will make things much easier for Jay Cutler, who will need some help keeping Green Bay’s pass rush at bay. Putting pressure on the quarterback is the one thing the Packers do well defensively, thanks to Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews. Cutler will have plenty of manageable passing situations, so he’ll definitely be able to get the ball to Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery consistently, especially if Matthews is out with a groin that knocked him out of the end of the Detroit game.

RECAP: The Packers are my third-favorite pick of the week. I like them for a variety of reasons:

1. Aaron Rodgers is almost automatic coming off a loss. He’s 14-5 against the spread following a defeat, including 7-1 ATS when he’s not favored by 7.5 points or more like he was versus the Jets in Week 2.

2. Spread value: There’s some here, as the Packers were -3 prior to last week’s games. Getting 1.5 points isn’t very much, but the number moved off the key figure of three. There’s a very good chance Green Bay will win this contest by a field goal.

3. Overrated vs. Underrated: The Bears are overrated. Everyone has already forgotten their loss to the Bills and the fact that they needed the 49ers to self destruct to pull out a Week 2 victory. Everyone is also ignoring the fact that the Jets legitimately outgained Chicago by 130 yards and averaged 1.6 more yards per play Monday night. The Bears aren’t very good, and the Packers are better than most think they are.

4. Here’s a cool trend: Road divisional favorites coming off a loss are 35-13 against the spread since 1989 if their winning percentage is between 25 and 49.9. The reason for this is because the public doesn’t fully buy a road favorite with a losing record. Vegas, however, knows better. Bill Simmons, for instance, was confused about the Packers laying points on his podcast. He’ll find out soon enough why that Green Bay is favored.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public money is on the Packers. There was some sharp action on Green Bay as well, though it appears that there is some takeback on the Bears. Some professionals may have been hoping for Chicago +3, but that doesn’t appear as though it’ll happen.

SUNDAY UPDATE: I was pleased to hear that the sharps are on the Packers. Pinnacle is indicating that, posting a +2 line when most places have +1.5. I’m bumping this up to four units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Early money on the Packers, but not much.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 69% (34,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Jay Cutler is 1-8 vs. the Packers.

Packers are 32-16 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 48-30 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 23-17 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Aaron Rodgers is 14-5 ATS after a loss (just 7-4 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Mike McCarthy is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog following a road loss. ???

Bears are 5-20 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games.

Jay Cutler is 32-58 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Bears -1.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Packers 30, Bears 24
Packers -1.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 50 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 38, Bears 17

Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1)
Line: Texans by 3. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Texans -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -2.
Sunday, Sept. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Bills.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. It’s not too late to enter, so sign up soon!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: So much for the Texans’ undefeated season. Houston was 2-0 and doing arrogant, Patriot-type things like throwing touchdowns to their defensive players, but they got a taste of reality in a loss to the Giants.

Ryan Fitzpatrick was dreadful in that contest, throwing horrible passes all afternoon until garbage time. He could be in for more of the same this week because he’ll be battling his former team. Fitzpatrick, of course, played for Buffalo from 2009 to 2012. He stole a big contract from Ralph Wilson after a solid, early showing with the team, but his play disintegrated at a rapid pace after that. Many of the Bills players still on the roster got a close look at Fitzpatrick in practice every day and know exactly how to beat him. I think that gives Buffalo a considerable edge.

It’ll help Fitzpatrick that he’ll have Arian Foster back in the lineup. Foster missed Week 3 because he was overworked, and we all saw how that turned out. The Bills will have to worry about Foster coming out of the backfield as a dual threat, but it helps that Buffalo is sixth versus the rush in terms of YPC (3.27). The Bills just gave up only 74 yards on 35 carries to the Chargers, and no opponent has rushed for more than 86 yards against them thus far this season.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills predictably crashed and burned much like the Texans last week. As with Houston, they got a dose of reality. They had a couple of nice wins to kick off the season, but they have no chance of reaching the Super Bowl as long as E.J. Manuel is their quarterback. It’s a shame too because the rest of Buffalo’s roster is mostly solid.

Having said that, the offensive line is also an issue. Manuel took five sacks in the loss to San Diego because his blockers couldn’t protect him. The right side was especially brutal. That’s not a good sign for this game because that side of the line will have to deal with J.J. Watt.

Fortunately for the Bills, they should be able to establish a strong running game to keep Watt from wrecking Manuel. The Texans are very weak in run support, as its defense is currently surrendering 5.21 yards per carry, which is fifth-worst in the NFL. Watt is great, but the rest of their line stinks. They clearly miss Antonio Smith, who signed with Oakland this past offseason.

RECAP: I’m not going to bet the Bills, but I think they’re the right side. The Texans could be looking ahead to their matchups against their two biggest rivals in the Cowboys and Colts. Also, Buffalo can’t possibly lose to Fitzpatrick. The humiliation would be too much, so the players will do everything in their power to use their knowledge of Fitzpatrick’s deficiencies against him.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No opinion on this game. Someone bet this down from Bills +4 to Bills +3, but there’s no sharp action at the current spread.

SUNDAY UPDATE: It seems like there’s some sharp support on the Bills on Sunday morning. You’re now getting the Texans at -3 +113 at some places, as the books don’t want to move to -2.5.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

The Texans are in a breather alert; this is the last easy game they’ll have for a while. Following Buffalo, they have to battle the in-state rival Cowboys, Colts, Steelers and divisional foe Tennessee.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 54% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -4.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Bills 16, Texans 13
Bills +3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 23, Bills 17

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
Line: Colts by 7. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Colts -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -4.5.
Sunday, Sept. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Colts.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I was disgruntled to see that the pre-game shows spent time talking about Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson again. That stuff was like so two weeks ago. Seriously though, it’s just aggravating to keep hearing about it. How about, I don’t know, actually talking about football? Or here’s an idea: Delve into the players who are doing great things off the field. There are plenty of them, but the media continues to focus on Peterson and Rice because it sells. They’re almost as bad as the real perpetrators.

Speaking of perpetrators, the most painful aspect of the Rice/Peterson discussions was watching Ray Lewis pretend to be sad during Sunday NFL Countdown. I wouldbe surprised that ESPN allows a murderer to sit on their set and discuss off-the-field actions, but I know just how incompetent ESPN is.

Oh, and it’s not like Lewis really contributes anything. Here was his first sentence of the broadcast following the introductions: “The Arizona Cardinals has an opportunity today to take a huge step right now, and whoever wins this game will be in sole place of second place of the NFC.”

Such great analysis. ESPN should hire more killers so we can get more insight like this.

2. If you didn’t hear, companies like Crest and Procter and Gamble were set to kick off an initiative with the NFL to promote breast cancer awareness. However, they canceled their plans entirely in the wake of the Peterson and Rice news.

Wow. So these companies are going to stop promoting breast cancer awareness just because of a couple of a**holes? What scumbags. What does it matter what Peterson and Rice did in relation to breast cancer awareness? Like I said, there are plenty of good guys in the NFL, and there are awful people in every single company. We just know about the NFL’s douche bags because they are public figures. And now we know there are douche bags at Crest and Procter and Gamble as well.

3. On a much less serious note, is anyone else upset that CBS and the NFL Network got rid of Thursday night intro music video they had last year? I’m talking about this one:

I’ve decided to make it a habit to listen to this song before each Thursday game. And by “listen,” I really mean “looking at that a**.”

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: One of the mouth-breathing hate-mailers called me an “Andrew Luck jockstrap sniffer,” as detailed in the hate mail section above. Well, what can I say? I do love me some Andrew Luck jockstraps – particularly because Luck is damn good. He tore apart Jacksonville’s defense with ease last week en route to a three-unit cover. Of course, the Jaguars are incapable of putting up much of a challenge because they are an absolute abomination, so Luck should be aware that Week 3 might have been a bit of fool’s gold.

It doesn’t matter though, right? After all, Luck will be battling the inept Titans. Well, Tennessee isn’t nearly as bad defensively, ranking 16th in total efficiency and fifth in terms of YPA. Save for his trick-play touchdown, Andy Dalton did not have a very successful outing this past Sunday, so Luck might find things more difficult than he expected. Then again, Luck is an elite quarterback, so I still expect him to convert plenty of first downs during scoring drives.

The Titans’ defensive liability is against the rush. They surrender 4.4 yards per carry, which puts them 21st in the NFL. Fortunately for them, the Colts don’t possess a strong ground attack because Pep Hamilton foolishly continues to ride Trent Richardson, who completely sucks. Ahmad Bradshaw is so much more productive, but the Colts are too stubborn to admit that they wasted a first-round pick. Someone in that front office should enroll in an economics class to discover what “sunk cost” means.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans held up somewhat well defensively at Cincinnati, but were blown out because Jake Locker was terrible. Locker was completely inaccurate and gave his team no chance to win. Then again, he was battling a dominant defense that pressured him throughout the afternoon. He was sacked just twice, but he was constantly under siege. That’s not an excuse for his ineptitude, but it was just something else that made life difficult for him.

Locker may not even play in this game because he’s questionable with a wrist injury. If he does, it’ll be a relief to him that he’ll have to deal with a pass rush that isn’t half as potent as Cincinnati’s. The Colts didn’t even pressure the Jacksonville quarterbacks all that often, so Locker will have a clean pocket for most of the afternoon.

The Titans could help Locker or his backup by establishing a strong rushing attack. Like the Colts, however, they use a plodding running back despite having a superior, alternative option on the bench. Bishop Sankey was so effective last week, yet Ken Whisenhunt said he’ll continue to roll with Shonn Greene because he’s not a fan of Sankey’s “footwork.” Whatever that means. Perhaps once the Colts are done looking up “sunk cost,” Whisenhunt can scour the dictionary for the definition of “talent.”

RECAP: I believe the Titans are the right side. The Colts are coming off a perfect win and may underestimate their opponent. Tennessee, meanwhile, is playing in its second-consecutive road game as an underdog. Teams in this situation have a strong history of covering the spread.

Having said that, I don’t trust the Titans. They could be poisonous. The sharps were on them last week, yet they bombed. Excluding the Jaguars, Tennessee has cost me more money than any other team over the past three years, so I’m hesitant to make this any sort of high wager.

PICK CHANGE: I’m moving to the Colts. It’s not looking like Jake Locker will play. I was hoping for Zach Mettenberger to get the nod instead, but Ken Whisenhunt continues to be incompetent. He refused to give Bishop Sankey more carries, and now he’s starting Charlie Whitehurst for some reason.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting on the Titans. I don’t get it, but maybe they know something about Charlie Whitehurst that we don’t.

SUNDAY UPDATE: This spread is available at -7 in some places. The sharps are on the Titans and Charlie Whitehurst, which is odd.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Lots of money on the Colts again.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 80% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 18 of the last 22 meetings.

Andrew Luck is 13-5 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Colts -7.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Colts 24, Titans 14
Colts -7.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 41, Titans 17

Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
Line: Ravens by 3.5. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Ravens -3 +100.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Sept. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

Random College Football Notes:

1. It’s crazy that Florida State risked its entire season because of Jameis Winston’s “vulgar” remark. It’s crazier when you find out what he really said. No major-media company actually revealed it, but I did some research and discovered that he was yelling the following at the student union:

“F*** her right in the p***y!”

Vulgar, right? No really – because it’s an old meme. Here it is, though you may want to put on headphones if you’re at work or school:

So, Winston got suspended… for a meme? Huh? I agree that Winston is a douche based on what he’s done in the past, but this did not warrant any sort of discipline. If the people making the decisions at Florida State weren’t 80-year-old geriatric a**holes, they would’ve found this funny, given Winston a minor warning and then put him on the field. If I happened to be a Florida State student, I’d be super pissed about this – until I remembered that I was surrounded by thousands of super-hot chicks, and then I would’ve felt better about life in general.

2. Regarding Florida State-Clemson, I highly enjoyed Mark May’s criticism of Clemson’s overtime coaching decision during the highlights. “They should have gone for the field goal in overtime!” he declared.

Really, Mark? So, it would’ve been better that they lost by three instead of six? I don’t understand. The Seminoles scored a touchdown, so a field goal wouldn’t have done Clemson any good. If May weren’t so focused on being such a douche on TV, he probably would’ve seen the flaw in his terrible logic.

3. Speaking of ESPN people, Desmond Howard picked Clemson, while Lee Corso and the hot blonde chick guest on College Gameday went with Florida State. Kirk Herbstreit abstained because he was covering the game.

I think that’s so incredibly dumb. Why can’t Herbstreit pick games he announces? Does anyone think he’ll be biased because of some stupid pick he made on a pre-game show? It’s not like he’s betting on either side, and even if he did, no one would know about it. This is just more ESPN stupidity.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: For the second week in a row, we’re going to see a speedy, loud-mouthed receiver try to get revenge on his former team for letting him go. DeSean Jackson failed despite a brilliant performance in Philadelphia, and now Steve Smith will take his shot at the Panthers.

Smith should be able to get open against a sketchy Carolina secondary, but the question is whether Joe Flacco will have the time in the pocket to find him downfield. Baltimore’s offensive line has held up very well during the past two weeks, but it’s not like the Steelers and Browns have much of a pass rush. The Panthers do, even without Greg Hardy. It wasn’t there Sunday night, perhaps because the team didn’t take the Steelers seriously, but they rattled Matthew Stafford the prior week. Mario Addison has stepped up for Hardy and should continue to perform at a high level.

Making things worse for Flacco, he won’t have Dennis Pitta at his disposal because his favorite target is out for the year with a hip injury. Flacco didn’t play as well without Pitta last week. He did, however, have the luxury of a strong rushing attack supporting him, and he may have that again considering how awful the Panthers were against Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount on Sunday night.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers were dreadful on this side of the ball as well against the Steelers. They struggled immensely to maintain drives after being successful the week before against the Lions. There are two possible reasons for this sudden decline. The first could be Cam Newton’s health. Newton has shied away from scrambling very much this season because of a bum ankle and some other maladies. He has scrambled just six times through two games, which is not nearly enough for a quarterback whose primary strength is his legs. With only one competent receiver to throw to, it’s no surprise that Carolina struggled to score against the Steelers.

The other reason is that, as mentioned, the Panthers weren’t prepared. They were 2-0 and were battling a team that was just blown out on national TV. They simply didn’t take the Steelers seriously. Thus, I expect more of an effort out of Newton and his supporting cast this week. Newton may try to run more, which will be a big boost for the offense.

Another positive is that DeAngelo Williams will be back in the lineup. Williams’ impact isn’t as great as Arian Foster’s return this week, for example, but he’s still an important piece of the offense, as he’s so much better than the plodding Jonathan Stewart. The Ravens aren’t very good against the run, ranking 20th in terms of YPC (4.28), so Williams should have a decent amount of success.

RECAP: The Panthers are my second-favorite pick of the week. I don’t usually like going against the Ravens at home, but they’re just 1-4 against the spread as hosts in their previous five home games, so that makes me feel better. Here’s why I love Carolina:

1. The Ravens are coming off an emotional, last-second win against a divisional opponent. Now sitting pretty at 2-1, they will be battling an opponent that was just demolished by a team they themselves dismantled in Week 2. I can’t imagine Baltimore getting up for this non-conference game.

2. The Panthers, meanwhile, will be trying to rebound after being humiliated on national TV. Newton has a great track record following a defeat, owning a 14-7 spread record as long as he’s not favored by more than a touchdown. He’s 10-4 ATS as an underdog in this situation.

3. The Ravens violate the Statfox Trend, which I’ve been using for about a decade. Home favorites coming off a road victory of 1-3 points are just 29-52 against the spread in the first half of the season.

4. My numbers have this game as a pick ’em, yet the Ravens are laying 3.5. I like that value.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some slight professional money on the Ravens earlier during the week, but nothing substaintial. I still like Carolina a lot. It’ll be interesting to see what happens Sunday morning.

SUNDAY UPDATE: There’s finally been a bit of sharp support on the Panthers. The juice movement Sunday morning is an indication of that.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

The Ravens won an emotional game on the road, while the Panthers will be looking to redeem themselves from an embarrassing loss.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
No surprise that the public is fading Carolina after Sunday night.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 52% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Cam Newton is 14-7 ATS off a loss as long as he’s not favored by 7+.

Ravens are 20-10 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Panthers 24, Ravens 23
Panthers +3.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 38, Panthers 10

Detroit Lions (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)
Line: Lions by 2. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Lions -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jets -1.
Sunday, Sept. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Lions.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Four years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for this past season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses.

What’s in store for this season? Check out the new Spam Mails here with my responses.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The prevailing question concerning this game is how the Jets’ inept secondary is going to cover Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford’s other receivers. The defensive backfield had major issues with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery on Monday night despite the former being hobbled. Rex Ryan did his best to send crazy blitzes Jay Cutler’s way, and it did work about half the time, but the Bears still were able to prevail.

Ryan may actually have more success this week because the Lions, as a team, are more prone to mistakes than the Bears are. There’s a greater chance that Stafford will throw a pick or lose a fumble in the red zone, or perhaps Megatron will drop another touchdown. It’s always something with the Lions. For whatever reason, they never can seem to get out of their own way.

What the Jets need to do is actually take advantage of these errors rather than drop four potential interceptions like they did Monday night. It’s really as simple as that. Securing one of those picks probably would’ve won them the game because…

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets tallied more than 400 net yards of offense against the Bears. They did this legitimately, and they averaged 1.6 more yards per play than Chicago did. Unfortunately for New York, Geno Smith made too many crucial errors. Both the pick-six and the interception in the end zone were absolutely brutal, and some horrible officiating didn’t help matters.

However, Smith will have to do more than take care of the football in this matchup. The Lions are far better defensively than the Bears are in pretty much every aspect. Whereas Chicago is 20th against the pass in terms of YPA, Detroit is tied for sixth (6.45). The pass rush is a big part of that, as Ndamukong Suh and company put tons of heat on Aaron Rodgers this past Sunday. They should be able to do the same to Smith in this contest.

The Jets will also find it much more difficult to run the ball. They’ve decided to do the right thing by utilizing Chris Ivory more often, but it may not matter in this contest because Detroit is third versus the rush in terms of YPC (2.63). No team has gained more than 76 yards on the ground against the Lions thus far.

RECAP: This game gave me some trouble. Ultimately, I opted to side with the Jets. There’s way too much money coming in on Detroit, and I don’t think the mistake-proneLions will be too focused for this matchup anyway. They just squashed the Packers, so why would they concern themselves with Geno Smith and his horrible supporting cast? The Jets, meanwhile, will be hungrier for a victory to avoid a 1-3 start.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Lions are one of the square bets of the week. However, there hasn’t been much sharp movement toward the Jets. That may change as well Sunday morning.

SUNDAY UPDATE: This spread is all over the place. The sharps have taken this to Jets -1 in many places, but you can still get them at +2 on Bovada. The professionals love New York, as Matthew Stafford is just 3-8 against the spread as a road favorite.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Lions might be a bit full of themselves after beating the Packers. They may not take the Jets seriously.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

A massive amount of action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 71% (41,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Lions are 10-24 ATS against losing teams the previous 34 instances.

Jets are 18-3 ATS at home following a home loss in the last 21 instances.

Jets are 9-15 ATS in September home games since 2000 (5-4 since in 2009).

Opening Line: Lions -1.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 26, Lions 23
Jets +2 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 24, Jets 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
Line: Steelers by 7.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Steelers -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -4.
Sunday, Sept. 28, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

Check out the newest chapter of the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Buccaneers put together one of the all-time stinkers this past Thursday night. I’ll talk about their offense in a bit, but their defense surrendered a score to the Falcons almost every single time Matt Ryan had the ball. It was pathetic, but hilarious at the same time. It was certainly better than anything NBC will have on its Thursday comedy block this year (way to get rid of Community, idiots).

The Steelers should be able to pick up where the Falcons left off and score at will on almost every possession, right? I wouldn’t be too sure about that. One of the primary reasons the Buccaneers were so inept Thursday was because they were missing several key pieces of their defense, including Gerald McCoy, arguably the premier defensive tackle in the NFL. He and stout pass-rusher Michael Johnson will be back in the lineup, which will be huge in terms of their ability to get to the quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger isn’t protected very well, so Tampa should be able to pressure him frequently. McCoy will also provide a huge boost in run support in an attempt to stop Le’Veon Bell. Having linebacker Mason Foster back would also help, but his status is unknown.

Having said that, I still trust Roethlisberger to have success. The Buccaneers were putrid versus the pass even with McCoy, Johnson and Foster in the lineup. They couldn’t stop Derek Anderson or Austin Davis in the first two weeks of the season, and it goes without saying that Roethlisberger is much better than either of them.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers’ scoring attack was nearly as dreadful Thursday night. It couldn’t achieve a first down until the middle of the second quarter, and it didn’t get on the scoreboard until the final period when the Falcons weren’t trying as hard. It was a sad state of affairs. Josh McCown was absolutely atrocious, while Bobby Rainey couldn’t hang on to the ball to save his life.

McCown is injured, so the Buccaneers will theoretically have a boost with Mike Glennon at the helm. Glennon isn’t a talented player by any means, but he won’t do stupid things like throw the ball while falling down. All Glennon did in relief of McCown on Thursday night was check the ball to his running back, which might be enough considering all of the injuries the Steelers have sustained to their linebacking corps and secondary. Ryan Shazier, Ike Taylor and Jarvis Jones are all out, and the team wasn’t even great at stopping the pass in the first place.

Speaking of the running back position, Doug Martin will be back. Rainey ran well in Martin’s absence, but he lost three fumbles in as many games. Martin will at least be more reliable in terms of ball security, and he should be able to find room behind the league’s 31st-ranked ground defense (5.48 YPC), especially considering that Logan Mankins will be returning to the lineup as well.

RECAP: I think there’s some potential for an upset here. The Steelers are feeling great about themselves following a victory in front of a national audience. They’re 2-1 and now play a desperate 0-3 team they are completely unfamiliar with. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, absolutely have to win this game. They’ve also been hearing about how dreadful they are over the past 10 days. As mentioned, teams that are blown out on Thursday night typically bounce back the following contest.

I like the Buccaneers for a variety of other reasons. I’m buying on bad news. The sharps are on Tampa. The Steelers have too many injuries. Underdogs coming off massive losses typically cover. And so on. Tampa is definitely the right side, but the question is whether this team is poisonous or not. As I said earlier, I’m not sure yet. I’m going to limit this selection as a two-unit choice as a consequence; I’d otherwise bet four units or so on a team in as good of a spot as Tampa is.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharps bet this spread down from +8 to +7.5. I still worry about the Buccaneers being competitive, but I like them as a two-unit play.

SUNDAY UPDATE: The sharps are on the Buccaneers. This spread has fallen to +7 at some books.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers were embarrassed and will want to redeem themselves.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Early money on the Steelers

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 73% (43,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Ben Roethlisberger is 4-8 ATS as a non-divisional home favorite following a road win.

Mike Tomlin is 3-14 ATS as a favorite after a win of 14+ in the regular season unless a bye is coming up.

Opening Line: Steelers -8.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 27, Buccaneers 24
Buccaneers +7.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 27, Steelers 24

Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games
Jacksonville�at�San Diego, Philadelphia�at�San Francisco, Atlanta�at�Minnesota, New Orleans�at�Dallas, New England�at�Kansas City

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
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2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
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2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
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2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)