NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)

NFL Picks (2014): 29-33-1 (-$930)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 29, 4:45 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1)
Line: Chargers by 12.5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chargers -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -10.5.
Sunday, Sept. 28, 4:05 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 1,208 remained going into Week 3. The bigest loser was Carolina, but only 17 people took them.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It’s about time. All it took was complete humiiation, several blowouts and a number of players quitting on him, but Gus Bradley has finally made the right call. He has decided to make the change and start Blake Bortles against the Chargers. He could have done this against a softer defense like Philadelphia, Washington or Indianapolis. San Diego, however, will give Bortles quite the challenge.

The Chargers used to struggle on this side of the ball, but they’ve had quite the turnaround. They haven’t surrendered more than 24 points since last November, and they’re eighth in defensive efficiency. They’re stout against both the run and the pass, so it’s unlikely that the slow and sluggish Toby Gerhart will get anything going. Jacksonville’s receiving corps is also underwhelming, especially with the absence of Marqise Lee, and the San Diego secondary shouldn’t have any issues defending the Jaguar wideouts.

It’s also quite certain that the Chargers will be able to put plenty of pressure on Bortles. Jacksonville’s offensive line is atrocious and hasn’t been able to block anyone yet. However, unlike Chad Henne, Bortles will be able to sneak out of trouble and pick up some first downs with his legs. The Jaguar offense won’t be completely inept with him at the helm.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Philip Rivers is one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL. The Jaguars have the worst defense in the league, and it isn’t even close. It’s not a matter of how much the Chargers will score; it’s if they’ll even punt Sunday afternoon.

Having said that, I do wonder how much Danny Woodhead’s absence will have an effect on Rivers going forward. It won’t matter much in this contest, but Woodhead was a great safety valve for him. Ryan Mathews is also out, so Donald Brown will have to carry the load himself. He’ll have a good game, as the Jaguars can’t stop anyone.

RECAP: As I mentioned earlier, there’s tremendous line value available here. The Jaguars were +9.5 prior to Week 3, yet they’re underdogs of 13 in this contest. That’s too much spread value to pass up. There’s no way in hell I’m betting Jacksonville, but I’m going to take them as a zero-unit selection on principle.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Surprise, surprise, the sharps are taking the double digits. The Jaguars might be the right side, but I don’t feel like going against the Chargers right now.

SUNDAY UPDATE: Nothing’s changed. The professional money is on Jacksonville.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
Slight lean on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 62% (32,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jaguars are 18-44 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Chargers -13.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Jaguars 13
Jaguars +12.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Survivor Pick (2-1)
Chargers 33, Jaguars 14

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
Line: 49ers by 4. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : 49ers -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -4.5.
Sunday, Sept. 28, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 7! Emmitt, Ray Rice and Josh Gordon flee England, but they have trouble on Robert Kraft’s jet. Stay tuned for next week’s episode on Friday.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: All the focus in last week’s game was the Chris Baker hit on Nick Foles that the NFL ultimately ruled wasn’t illegal. A fight ensued, and players were ejected. What more people should’ve paid attention to was the Foles interception. It was a terrible throw that barely hit the ground. Had the play stood, the Redskins probably would’ve won the game, and no one would be talking about the Eagles being 3-0, including the guy with the fancy hair on NFL.com, who moved Philadelphia up to No. 2 in his ridiculous power rankings.

Foles has been off this year. Again, no one’s saying anything because the Eagles have a spotless record, but he’s missing countless open receivers. He may once again have issues finding his targets in this game despite battling a struggling secondary because of pass-protection issues. The Eagles are missing most of their offensive line. Center Jason Kelce, guard Evan Mathis, tackle Lane Johnson and his backup, Allen Barbre, are all out. The 49ers should be able to put pressure on him and force some incompletions.

Foles will have to move the chains himself because he won’t get much support on the ground. While the 49ers have played poorly against the pass, they’ve been strong versus the rush, limiting opponents to just 3.76 yards per carry.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: While the Eagles have lost some players for this game, the 49ers will be getting a key member of their squad back into the lineup. Vernon Davis will return to the field after missing last week’s contest. Davis is Colin Kaepernick’s preferred target by far, as the young quarterback has usually struggled without him. Kaepernick actually did play well at Arizona, but he still has to be thrilled that Davis will be back on the field.

Kaepernick should be able to pick up where he left off last week. The Eagles have major issues against the pass, as we all learned when they surrendered 427 aerial yards to Kirk Cousins. After all, Chip Kelly works the players too hard, according to Cary Williams, so how can they possibly defend against Kaepernick and his weapons?

One area in which the Eagles’ defense actually excels is in run support. They’re currently ranked eighth in yards per carry surrendered to opposing running backs (3.45). Frank Gore will once again be stymied on the ground, but Kaepernick will be able to pick up yardage with his legs if he chooses to scramble often again. It was surprising to see Kaepernick run so frequently last week because he has typically saved that aspect for the playoffs. Perhaps the threat of a 1-3 start will prompt him to do whatever it takes to win.

RECAP: That 1-3 threat is exactly why I like the 49ers. They need this so much more than the Eagles. Kicking off the year 1-3 while Seattle and Arizona are 2-1 and 3-0, respectively, would be disastrous.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. The public is pounding them in this contest, as everyone is buying into everything the media is selling them; that the Eagles are 3-0 because they have the most stamina in the league. Well, they would’ve lost to the Colts had the officials correctly called that defensive hold, and they easily could’ve dropped a win to the Redskins if a defensive back reeled in that errant Foles pass. Two plays are the difference between the Eagles being 3-0 and 1-2 with a measley victory over the horrible Jaguars in which they trailed 17-0.

The sharps are on the 49ers, and I am as well. However, I’m not going to bet them heavily because I don’t trust them. They’ve outplayed all of their opponents thus far, but they’ve self-destructed with terrible penalties the past two weeks. That could easily happen again, as Jim Harbaugh seems to have lost control of his previously well-coached team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m dropping this down to zero units. I’ve seen something that makes me less confident on the 49ers, though I still believe that they are the right side.

SUNDAY UPDATE: People asked me why I dropped this play. Non-road favorites that are 1-2 and made the playoffs last year have a very dubious history.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 54% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

49ers are 13-8 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.

Jim Harbaugh is 4-1 ATS as a favorite after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Eagles 17
49ers -4 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 26, Eagles 21

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2)
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Vikings -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -2.5.
Sunday, Sept. 28, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: .

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about Philadelphia.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons scored virtually every single time they had the ball against the Buccaneers, so they’ll just pick up where they left off, right? They’re completely unstoppable, so the consensus thinking is that they’ll be able to do whatever they want in this contest. That’s the indication I’m getting based on how the public is betting this game, anyway.

As usual, the public is wrong. The Vikings have a very underrated defense. Think about what they’ve done thus far: They completely shut down the Rams in Week 1 despite the fact that Austin Davis has looked capable in his other two games. They limited Drew Brees and the Saints to just three scoring drives this past Sunday. They had some issues stopping the run in Week 2, but they had to be distracted by the Adrian Peterson story in that ugly loss. Besides, it’s not like the Falcons have the personnel to take advantage of such a liability if it existed.

The Vikings have a pretty strong secondary, thanks to Harrison Smith and a couple of stout cornerbacks in Xavier Rhodes and Captain Munnerlyn. It’s impossible to contain Julio Jones when he’s completely healthy, but Minnesota should be able to handle everything else the Falcons throw at them.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It took an injury to Matt Cassel, but the Vikings have named Teddy Bridgewater the starter. Bridgewater played about three quarters of action in New Orleans and handled himself well. He didn’t lead any touchdown drives, but he was poised in a very loud environment and converted enough first downs to keep the Saints’ scoring attack off the field for an ample amount of time.

Bridgewater won’t have to worry about the noise at home. He also won’t have to deal with a strong defense of any sort. The Falcons have plenty of issues on this side of the ball. I like their secondary, but their linebacking corps is in shambles. As a consequence, they aren’t very strong against the rush. They rank 16th overall, but that figure is skewed by their victory against the Buccaneers; they yielded a combined 283 yards on the ground to the Bengals and Saints.

The Falcons also struggle to put pressure on the quarterback. They got to Josh McCown, but that Tampa game needs to be thrown out. Atlanta wasn’t able to get any sort of heat on Andy Dalton the week before, and the team has generated a total of three sacks throughout the year. Matt Kalil has proven to be a liability up front, but the Falcons don’t have the personnel to take advantage of him.

RECAP: The Vikings are my September NFL Pick of the Month. Here are seven reasons why I love them, one for each unit:

1. I mentioned that there’s plenty of line value here earlier. The Vikings were -1.5 prior to Week 3, yet they’re +3 now. How does that make sense? Barring injury, no spread should move 4.5 points based on one week’s worth of results.

2. Speaking of the spread, it’s completely off. The Falcons and Vikings are just four spots apart in my NFL Power Rankings, so according to my numbers, Minnesota should be -2.5, or something close to that. Atlanta being -3 is ridiculous. That would mean that the Falcons would be -9 if they were playing at home (shifting the spread three points to neutral and another three to the other site). The Falcons were -6.5 against the Buccaneers, so according to the spread, Tampa Bay, as the public saw it last week, is 2.5 points better than Minnesota. Huh!?

3. The Falcons are overrated, while the Vikings are underrated. People tend to have short memories, so how can everyone forget how easily Cincinnati dismantled Atlanta in Week 2? Meanwhile, Minnesota has played well in the two games in which it wasn’t distracted by the Adrian Peterson news. It obliterated the Rams, who have been competitive since, and it stayed within reach of the Saints, limiting Brees to just three scoring drives.

4. Atlanta is coming off a perfect win. In the first half of the season, teams coming off blowout victories in which they won the turnover battle and led every quarter are a horrific 4-39 against the spread the following week. This ties into the other trend I mentioned earlier: Road favorites struggle following Thursday night blowout victories because they have 10 days hearing about how great they are. The Falcons are overconfident right now and may not be completely focused as a consequence.

5. I have to believe that this game means more to the Vikings than it does to the Falcons. Minnesota is 1-2, and while this isn’t a must-win, dropping to 1-3 would make things very difficult. The Falcons, meanwhile, have to focus on a squad that they haven’t seen since 2011. They also barely have any film on Teddy Bridgewater, and preparing for their first scrambling quarterback of the year could be a challenge.

6. Vegas will lose lots of money if Atlanta covers. There’s more action on the Falcons than any other team in the NFL this week, and it’s not even close. Teams that receive 80 percent or more of the money usually fail to cover.

7. The sharps are on the Vikings. With all of the money on Atlanta, you’d expect the spread to rise, yet the number has fallen. It’s already +2.5 in some places. Get +3 if you can because this line, in all likelihood, will continue to move in Minnesota’s direction.

I’ll keep you updated throughout the week if anything changes. Follow @walterfootball for updates. FRIDAY UPDATE: I still love the Vikings, and I’m happy to see that Pinnacle is betting people to take Atlanta. Most books have Atlanta at -3 -110, while Pinnacle lists the team at -3 +102. I’m locking Minnesota in at +3 -110.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Vikings. Nothing has happened to make me change my mind. The sportsbooks will need Minnesota to cover, as the Falcons are one of the most highly bet sides of the week.

SUNDAY UPDATE: Ugh, I really screwed up with this, and I apologize. It seemed like this spread was going to drop, as is usually the case in 80-20 games like this one. There was no indication it would rise, but I woke up to see the Falcons were -3.5 and then -4. This game didn’t see enough sharp support to counter the public money on Atlanta.

However, that changed around 11 a.m. Some sharps hit the Vikings +4 pretty hard. Pinnacle moved it down to +3.5 instantly, so if you want to bet Minnesota, bet it now. Even with this spread movement, Vegas stands to lose a ton of money if Atlanta covers.

SUNDAY UPDATE: Wow. I’ve never seen line movement like this with so much action on one side. The spread almost always falls in games like this, yet it continues to rise. It’s even Falcons -5 in one book. The house is going to lose so much money if Atlanta covers.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

So much money on the Falcons. Not a surprise.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 83% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Matt Ryan is 12-8 ATS as a road favorite (9-6 ATS outdoors).

Vikings are 2-6 ATS without Adrian Peterson since 2008.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Vikings 24, Falcons 17
Vikings +3 (7 Units – September NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$700
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 41, Falcons 28

New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 54.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Saints -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -3.
Sunday, Sept. 28, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Saints.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Cowboys couldn’t stop Austin Davis last week. Austin freaking Davis. And they would’ve lost to him had Jared Cook not dropped a touchdown that fell right into his hands. With that in mind, how in the world is Dallas’ defense supposed to contain Drew Brees?

Brees put together just three scoring drives this past Sunday, so it’s understandable that some might be down on him. However, he was battling the Vikings, who have a very underrated defense. Dallas, meanwhile, has an abomination of a stop unit. The team is in the bottom 10 in every major category. It can’t stop the rush, contain the pass, get to the quarterback (three sacks all year!) or prevent the opposition from maintaining successful drives. Brees could have a career night.

Khiry Robinson figures to enjoy a great game as well, as he’ll once again start for the injured Mark Ingram. The Cowboys, as mentioned, can’t do anything about the rush, though they’ll get somewhat of a boost if Rolando McClain can play. McClain is dealing with a problematic groin and may not be 100 percent even if he suits up.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I mentioned that the Cowboys have an abomination of a defense, but the Saints’ unit is just as bad. They’re hovering around Dallas in nearly every category – they have four sacks – which is curious because they were a top-10 unit last year. Now, they suddenly can’t tackle or cover. Their sudden decline is quite baffling.

The Saints surrendered more than four yards per carry to both the Browns and Falcons, which bodes well for DeMarco Murray. One of the hottest backs in the NFL, Murray will burst for big gains, making life easy for Tony Romo once again. Romo hasn’t looked very sharp for the most part this season, but he made several clutch plays at St. Louis that allowed his team to mount an improbable comeback.

The problem as always for the Cowboys, however, will be routine ball security. Dallas is highly prone to turnovers because of poor coaching and general lethargy, so the Saints will need to be ready to pounce on loose balls and snatch errant passes.

RECAP: The Saints are the much better team, so -3 seems like a reasonable number on the road. The Cowboys are overrated right now because of their bogus victory at St. Louis, so I plan on taking advantage of it by going against them. However, I’m hesitant to wager anything on the Saints because the Clete Blakeman Rule applies. The public will be pounding the hell of the Saints because it’ll be the last game of the day, so you’ll never know if the sportsbooks will ask a crooked ref like Blakeman to make sure the lesser-bet side covers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sportsbooks will be desperate for Dallas to cover. I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking the Cowboys on principle, but the Saints are the better team.

SUNDAY UPDATE: Vegas won a ton of money with the Vikings covering, so the public pounding the Saints in this game isn’t as much of a concern. The sharps are split on this game. I still like the Saints, but I’m not crazy about picking them on the road.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

The public is still backing the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 67% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Cowboys are 20-11 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

The underdog is 45-19 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Opening Line: Saints -3.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Saints 34, Cowboys 30
Saints -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 54 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 38, Saints 17

New England Patriots (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -1.
Monday, Sept. 29, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, complete morons like Ron Zappolo, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas where the cheating Patriots will battle the Kansas Chiefs. Hello friends, I’m Kevin Reilly, and it’s great to be with you. Guys, I’d normally start off by saying how much I hate the cheating Patriots for unfairly beating my Eagles in the Super Bowl, and how much Donovan McNabb sucks, but we need to begin with some controversy. The Chiefs have been in the news for their team name. Many say it’s offensive; that it disparages Native Americans. What say you, Emmitt?

Emmitt: Mario, I do not understand why the Chief name have offense… offensive. First of all, Chief the guy who work in the kitchen and bake all the food. And B, everybody like food, so why he being offensed… offense… offensived?

Reilly: Emmitt, I’m talking about the Indian Chiefs; not chefs in a kitchen.

Fouts: Here’s what Emmitt is talking about. The Chiefs and Chefs sound very similar. Some would even call it a homonym. Don’t confuse this with the word, “homosexual,” even though they themselves are almost homonyms as well. How about that irony? The Chiefs and Chefs differ because of one letter. The letter, “C,” which comes first, is constant. The word “constant” also begins with the letter “C.” How about that irony? Speaking of irony, both words have “H” after the “C.” How about that? Notice that the word “how” also begins with “H.” You could say that’s a miracle. The letter “M” is not in either word, but it’s found three times in “homonym.” And three is greater than two, but less than four. That gets me to the next letter. Notice how there’s an “I” in Chefs and no “I” in Chiefs. That is what we call a “difference,” people. If there was an “I” in Chiefs, it would be Chefs and… wait a second, something I’m saying isn’t right.

Reilly: I don’t think anything you’re saying is right. Anyone else have an opinion?

Edwards: THE CHIEFS ARE NOT OFFENSIVE! NO ONE FINDS IT OFFENSIVE! NO ONE! NOT A SINGLE MAN! NOT A SINGLE WOMAN! NOT A SINGLE MAN-WOMAN HYBRID! NOT A CHILD! NOT A DOG! NO ONE HATES THAT NAME! NO ONE DOES! IT’S REDSKINS PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT! REDSKINS ARE OFFENSIVE! REDSKINS OFFEND EVERYONE! WHY!? BECAUSE INDIANS HAVE RED SKIN! NOT YELLOW SKIN! NOT GREEN SKIN! NOT BROWN SKIN! NOT BLUE SKIN! RED SKIN! NOT PURPLE SKIN! NOT GRAY SKIN! NOT WHITE SKIN! NOT BLACK SKIN! NOT ORANGE SKIN! RED SKIN! NOT AQUA SKIN! NOT VIOLET SKIN! NOT PEACH SKIN! NOT TEAL SKIN! IF THEY WERE CALLED THE TEALSKINS NO ONE WOULD CARE! WOULD YOU CARE? WOULD YOU CARE? WOULD YOU CARE? NO! NO ONE WOULD CARE! MAYBE THEY SHOULD CHANGE THE NAME TO TEALSKINS! OR PEACHSKINS! OR VIOLENTSKINS! OR AQUASKINS! OR REDSKINS! NO, NOT REDSKINS! HERM MADE A MISTAKE! HERM SAID THE ONLY COLOR THAT’S OFFENSIVE! HOW ABOUT THE TEALSKINS! WAIT, HERM SAID THAT ALREADY! HOW ABOUT THE VIOLENTSKINS! HERM SAID THAT TOO! HERM SAID… uhh…

Reilly: How about we call them the Herm F***tards because you are a f***tard, Herm!

Millen: I have an idea. How about we rename the Kansas City Chiefs the “Kansas City Kielbasa Stuffers.” Let me tell you, Kevin. I was out and about last night, looking for 100-percent USDA Men to bring back to my hotel so I could ride them all night long. Do you want to know how many I found, Kevin? Five dozen. Five dozen 100-percent USDA Men. And let me tell you, Kevin. I’ve never had my backside stuffed with kielbasas like I did last night. And not just regular kielbasas – smoked kielbasas! Holy moly, Kevin. You really should try it. We are in a beautiful city.

Reilly: Nah, I’ll pass. Tolly, you look like you have something to say about the Chiefs name.

Tollefson: I think this controversy is stupid. We shouldn’t get rid of Native Americans because they are easy to scam. I just bought 500 acres of land from one chief for a box of Cocoa Puffs. I told them that the Goddess of Nature created them, or some crap, and they bought it, hook, line and sinker.

Reilly: You are a real scumbag, Tolly, but you’re still better than that idiot, Herm. Ugh, the producers are telling me to let Ron Zappolo talk.

Zappolo: Thanks, Mike! Today’s game between the Kansas City West All-Stars and the Chicago East All-Stars should be a great one! It’s great to see so many all-stars out on the field! And there’s the kickoff! They scored a goal!

Reilly: What kickoff? The game hasn’t even begun yet, idiot!

Zappolo: There’s Dan Marino. He’s going to have a great career! Marino goes back to throw, finds his receiver! Home run, East All-Stars!

Reilly: You and Herm can both be on the f***tard team! We’ll be back after this!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: What is up with the Patriots? They barely beat the Raiders last week, scoring a mere 16 points against the same defense that couldn’t stop Ryan Fitzpatrick or Geno Smith. Tom Brady looked completely lost, his receivers dropped countless passes, and his offensive line couldn’t block for him whatsoever.

It’s difficult to imagine things changing against a better defense. Unlike the Raiders, the Chiefs have shown the ability to put pressure on opposing passers consistently. They did so against Ryan Tannehill this past Sunday, as Tamba Hali, Justin Houston and Dontari Poe put tons of heat on him. They’ll do the same with Brady and his horrific offensive front. They also won’t have to worry much about their poor secondary screwing up because it’s not like Brady has anyone incredibly dangerous to throw to.

Having said that, the Patriots could have success on the ground. The Chiefs have one of the weaker rush defenses in the NFL, surrendering 5.36 yards per carry to opposing backs. Only the Steelers and Panthers are worse (and the latter doesn’t belong there because its figure is screwed by the Sunday night game). Stevan Ridley should be able to compile tons of yardage, assuming he isn’t benched for fumbling.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: With Jamaal Charles out and Dwayne Bowe barely doing anything offensively, Alex Smith had very little talent around him in Sunday’s game at Miami. Yet, Smith did a fantastic job of moving the chains and putting up points against a Dolphin defense that seemed like it was more focused on boarding a plane for London.

The Patriots have no reason to be lethargic in this matchup, especially in the wake of last week’s close call and subsequent criticism. Bill Belichick will undoubtedly have a great game plan for the Chiefs. Belichick specializes in taking away one aspect of an opposing offense, and you better believe that he’ll be focusing on Kansas City’s rushing attack. Whether Charles or Knile Davis starts, Belichick will have a plan in place to erase the Chief running backs.

Alex Smith will have to do everything on his own. That’ll be difficult for him with half of the field unavailable, thanks to Darrelle Revis. Smith will still be able to move the chains by rushing for first downs, but maintaining consistent drives could be difficult for him.

RECAP: The public is backing the underdog, which is unusual. It was predictable though, given that they saw the Patriots struggle against the Raiders and the Chiefs destroy the Dolphins. This has created plenty of line value, as mentioned earlier. The Patriots were -6.5 prior to Week 3, yet they’re -3.5 now. I wish -3 was available, but I’m still going to back New England. I’m not crazy about it because there are some situational items that favor Kansas City, but the Patriots appear to be the right side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I saw a stat that said teams that started 0-2 and then won a game were 4-18 against the spread in their next contest as favorites. So, I naturally wanted to see how they did as underdogs because the Chiefs fit that profile. As it turns out, those teams are 31-10 ATS in that situation.

So, am I switching to the Chiefs? I’m tempted. But ultimately no because of the line value this game presents. A movement of 3.5 points is too much to pass up, and I feel like Tom Brady may want to prove his doubters wrong.

I’m not going to bet this game, as I can make a strong argument for either side, but I’m sticking with the Patriots.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New England: 57% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 162-55 as a starter (123-89 ATS).

Chiefs are 11-28 ATS as home underdogs of 1-5.5 points since 2007.

Opening Line: Patriots -4.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Chiefs 21
Patriots -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 41, Patriots 14

Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games
NY Giants�at�Washington, Green Bay�at�Chicago, Tennessee�at�Indianapolis, Miami�at�Oakland, Detroit�at�NY Jets, Tampa Bay�at�Pittsburgh, Carolina�at�Baltimore, Buffalo�at�Houston

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Underdog: Vikings +140 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$70

Moneyline Underdog: Panthers +155 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)