NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2013): 11-4 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2013): 8-6 (+$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2013): 4-11 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2013): 6-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2013): 8-5 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2013): 5-8 (-$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2013): 9-4-1 (-$110)

NFL Picks (2013): 80-80-2 (+$730)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 17, 5:55 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at Tennessee Titans (4-5)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 10): Colts -6.
Thursday, Nov. 14, 8:25 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Colts.

WEEK 10 RECAP: The good news is that I went 9-4-1 this past weekend, which included winning my October NFL Pick of the Month with the Ravens +1 over the Bengals. The bad news is that I finished -$110. It’s been a while since I complained about a loss, but the 49ers -5.5 over the Panthers hurt because San Francisco led 9-0 when Vernon Davis suffered a concussion. I’ve said it many times, but the toughest thing NFL coaches have to do is make in-game adjustments when key players suffer injuries. That was apparent here:

With Vernon Davis: 49ers 9, Panthers 0. Colin Kaepernick: 6-of-9, 43 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs.
Without Vernon Davis: Panthers 10, 49ers 0. Colin Kaepernick: 5-of-13 for 48 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT.

Oh well. There’s nothing that can be done about it, so let’s move on. I’ve vowed to avoid the following poisonous teams that were responsible for many of my two- and three-unit losses:

Rams
Buccaneers
Jaguars
Giants
Vikings
Eagles (maybe)

These non-maybe teams combined to go 4-1 ATS in Week 10, but I actually picked the Rams, Buccaneers and Vikings to cover because their opponents were in a bad spot. However, just because these crap squads performed well doesn’t mean that they’re worth betting heavily. Bad things happen when picking bad teams. Overall, these poisonous teams will ruin too many seemingly sharp bets.

I would like to note that the Falcons must be added to the list. I’ve been hesitant to label them a poisonous team because of Matt Ryan, but Ryan is struggling mightily because he has no talent around him. Also, Tennessee has to be placed here because Jake Locker is out for the year, and the defense is an abomination outside of Jurrell Casey. Thus, this week’s poisonous team chart looks like this:

Rams
Buccaneers
Jaguars
Giants
Vikings
Falcons
Titans

Meanwhile, my Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest partner Matvei and I also talked about some situations that almost always win:

Seahawks at home
Saints at home
Packers at home (needs Aaron Rodgers)
Jim Harbaugh anywhere (unless he’s playing another top team, i.e. Colts or Seahawks)
Tom Brady off a loss as long as he’s not favored by a lot

Those situations went 5-0 against the spread in Week 8, but only 1-2 ATS since. The 49ers were the losers this past weekend, but as mentioned earlier, Davis was lost. BEsides, maybe the Panthers are a top team. I’ll be moving them up in my NFL Power Rankings.

Also, we’ve discussed something called the Bermuda Triangle. This originated with the Cardinals, who inexplicably cover at home against all non-elite teams. Very weird things happen in these games that can’t be explained. Thus, Bermuda Triangle. Here are Bermuda Triangle situations:

Bet the Cardinals at home as a dog or small favorite unless they’re playing an elite team.
Fade the Ravens as a road favorite.
Fade the Steelers as a big home favorite or road favorite.
Fade the Eagles at home.
Fade the Cowboys as a very large home favorite.

The Cardinals hit if you had -2.5. Stupid Rashard Mendenhall – or rather, Bruce Arians for using a crappy player – ruined things for -3 bettors. We have a Bermuda Triangle situation coming up with the Eagles -3.5 versus Washington.

I also want to note that teams are good fades if they have key starters come back prior to their designated return date. Both Jay Cutler and E.J. Manuel were expected to be out much longer, yet they rejoined their team early. As a result, both quarterbacks were ineffective, prompting spread losses for each of their teams.

Both Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb are slated to return in three weeks, so if they both come back in two weeks, we’ll know to go against the Packers. Green Bay battles Detroit on Thanksgiving on that date.

Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts have had problems scoring ever since losing Reggie Wayne to a season-ending injury, but their issues can be rectified Thursday night. After all, Tennessee’s defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone recently.

Outside of defensive tackle Jurrell Casey, who is having a monstrous season rushing the quarterback, no Titan defender is playing particularly well right now. Tennessee doesn’t have much of a pass rush if Casey is excluded, which is putting pressure on a secondary that is ranked 25th in pass defense in terms of YPA over the past four games (7.69). That may sound bad, but it gets even worse when you consider that the Titans have battled Chad Henne and Kellen Clemens most recently.

Given that Tennessee didn’t exactly put the clamps on Henne and Clemens, Andrew Luck should have a field day against this defense. Also, this may sound like crazy talk, but Trent Richardson may actually average more than three yards per carry this week; Tennessee’s linebacking corps is that bad.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans had a shot in this game before Jake Locker went down, but Locker is officially out for the year after landing on injured reserve. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be back under center, and we know what to expect out of him: short throws and plenty of give-aways. Fitzpatrick was responsible for four turnovers in his two starts, and he fumbled away a fifth one this past week.

The only chance the Titans have of scoring is if Chris Johnson goes nuts like he did two weeks ago in St. Louis. Johnson was awful this past Sunday, and we’re more likely to see that version of him in this matchup. The Colts have a decent run defense that has limited its previous three opponents to fewer than four yards per carry. In fact, Zac Stacy, who has been a beast, mustered only 62 yards on 26 carries this past Sunday.

The Colts surrendered 38 points to the Rams because of some fluky plays. Two touchdowns came because of the offense and special teams. Two others were long Tavon Austin scores in which Indianapolis was caught napping. THe Colts’ defense is still pretty solid, so it’s not like Tennessee will have tons of success scoring in this contest.

RECAP: The Colts were definitely napping in that game, by the way. It reminded me so much of San Francisco’s Week 3 blowout loss to this same Indianapolis team. The 49ers had a divisional battle coming up in just four days, so they didn’t take a “lesser” opponent very seriously. The same thing happened to the Colts. They were preparing for the Titans, so they figured they could just show up and roll against the crappy Rams. St. Louis caught them completely by surprise.

Like San Francisco, Indianapolis will rebound as a three-point road favorite over an inferior divisional foe. Luck has shown that he can bounce back from defeat; in fact, he’s a perfect 7-0 against the spread following a loss.

I absolutely love the Colts in this spot. Two trends favor them as well. Teams that have lost the spread by 30-plus are 74-51 ATS the following week (this applied to the 49ers over the Rams as well). Meanwhile, divisional home underdogs are good fades in nationally televised games (30-54 ATS). I went four units with the 49ers, and I’m taking Indianapolis for four units as well.

Again, Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day. I’ll announce via Twitter @walterfootball when each selection is posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still going with the Colts for four units. Just think about this game logically: All Andrew Luck has to do is beat Ryan Fitzpatrick by three points. Unlike last week, Indianapolis will be focused because it’ll be coming off a defeat. The Colts have yet to lose against the spread following a loss with Luck at quarterback. The Titans, meanwhile, just lost to one of the worst teams in NFL history. They’re been in a tailspin since starting 3-1.

There is some concern about the betting action, but remember how I said that this matchup mirrored the San Francisco-St. Louis clash? Well, there was a ton of money on the 49ers (81%) in that contest, yet they still covered. Vegas has taken lots of cash from public bettors this season, so it’s time to give some back just before Black Friday.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Who’s going to bet on Ryan Fitzpatrick?

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 86% (66,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 16 of the last 20 meetings.

Andrew Luck is 7-0 ATS off a loss.

Mike Munchak is 6-11 ATS playing a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Colts -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Titans 13
Colts -3 (4 Units) — Push; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 30, Titans 27

Atlanta Falcons (2-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)
Line: Buccaneers by 1.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 10): Buccaneers -1.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

VEGAS RECAP: The sportsbooks had stolen money from the public in seven of nine weekends heading into Week 10. There were five highly bet games, and the books claimed three of them, as the Vikings, Raiders and Panthers won money for the house. The public won with the Seahawks and Broncos.

Vegas has been destroying the public this season. I’d joke again about degenerate bettors not being able to afford Christmas gifts for their poor kids this year, but it’s just getting sad.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Both of these teams are miserable, but the Falcons do have some good news. Sean Weatherspoon, who has played only one full game this year, is expected to be back for this contest. Weatherspoon is one of the better 4-3 linebackers in the NFL, so his return is obviously huge. With Weatherspoon back and Paul Worrilow playing very well, the Falcons suddenly have a competent linebacking corps.

Unfortunately, the Falcons don’t have much else; Desmond Trufant looks good and Jonathan Babineaux continues to be a force, but that’s it. Still, this is all the Falcons may need against an injury-ravaged Tampa offense that just lost Mike James for the year. James was merely a backup running back, but he had been rushing the ball very effectively in relief of Doug Martin. Now, the Buccaneers have Bobby Rainey and Brian Leonard leaking out of the backfield. Considering that Rainey has been cut by two teams this season, while Leonard is nothing but a plodding fullback, Atlanta’s defense won’t have much to worry about.

The same can be said for their efforts to stop Mike Glennon. The third-round quarterback has played well at times this season, but he looked completely lost Monday night after losing James. With no running game to lean on, Glennon was exposed. He went 8-of-17 for 99 yards and a pick following James’ injury. It’ll be easier for him to navigate through Atlanta’s banged-up defense, but keep in mind that the Falcons will be improved on this side of the ball with Weatherspoon back on the field.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I suppose it wouldn’t fit with the theme of the Falcons’ miserable 2013 campaign if they had a player return from injury without another one getting banged up. Tony Gonzalez injured his toe this past Sunday, so there’s a chance he could sit out. It’s likely that Gonzalez will play, however, but even if he suits up, he’ll be limited.

Matt Ryan can’t be too happy about this. He has struggled mightily since losing Julio Jones; in his past three games, he has thrown just three touchdowns compared to seven interceptions. He has also maintained YPA figures of less than 5.0 in two of the contests. Ryan’s last quality start came against the Buccaneers when he went 20-of-26 for 273 yards and three scores. However, that was at home, and the Buccaneers were still utilizing their completely idiotic zone defense that didn’t suit Darrelle Revis’ strengths at all. Revis is now focusing on shutting down the opposing team’s primary receiver. He did a number on Mike Wallace on Monday night, and he’ll have similar success versus Roddy White, who still isn’t 100 percent. With White smothered and Gonzalez hobbling around, whom will Ryan throw to?

It’ll once again be fully on Ryan because his team will continue to struggle to run the ball. Steven Jackson looks like a rotting corpse on the football field, averaging a disgraceful 2.2 yards per carry ever since his return from injury. Granted, he’s battled three tough defenses in the Cardinals, Panthers and Seahawks, but it won’t get much easier against the Buccaneers, who just limited the Dolphins to a whopping two rushing yards Monday night.

RECAP: You couldn’t pay me to bet money on this game. If I had to choose a side, I suppose I’d take the Falcons because of Weatherspoon’s return. But I just can’t find a reason to wager on either team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Did you know that teams that won their first game after starting 0-6 or worse are 11-1 against the spread in the previous 12 instances. This kind of makes me want to switch to Tampa – remember, I didn’t have a strong lean on either side – but I don’t like changing my pick during the week unless it’s for an injury. This trend also applies to Jacksonville.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 53% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 8 the last 10 meetings.

Matt Ryan is 12-7 ATS as a road favorite (9-5 ATS outdoors).

Mike Smith is 19-10 ATS after a loss.

Buccaneers are 10-24 ATS at home in the previous 34 instances.

Buccaneers are 5-12 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Falcons -1.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Falcons 17, Buccaneers 13
Falcons +1.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 41, Falcons 28

New York Jets (5-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-7)
Line: Jets by 2. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 10): Bills -1.5.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Jets.

HATE MAIL: Not too much hate mail this week. I found only one in the comment board:

You forecast Foles for 2 TDs and McCoy for 1 TD, but predict the Eagles to lose to the Packers 10-16. Egregious. Keep smoking the crack rock.

It was plausible. I was factoring in time travel.

Here’s an e-mail I received Sunday evening:

I couldn’t even come up with a sarcastic response to it because it was so factually incorrect.

Anyway, these next two responses aren’t hate mail, but I want to post them anyway:

Walt was probably in the fetal position crying when A.J Green caught that touchdown

I wonder if Walt had a heart attack on the Cin Hail mary? 700 on the line….but ok…he did win. he can relax

I’ve had several people asking me for my precise reaction to the Hail Mary. Here it was in real time:

“…”

I said nothing. I just sat there in silence. About two minutes later, it sank in, and I shouted:

“WHAT THE F**K!?!?!?!?”

And when Cincinnati was marching down the field in overtime…

“HOW THE F*** CAN THIS HAPPEN!? I’M DONE! I DON’T WANT TO RECAP THIS GAME! I DON’T WANT TO RECAP ANY GAMES! I’M DONE! I’M F***ING DONE!”

Phew.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: E.J. Manuel was dreadful in his return to action this past week. He went 22-of-39 for only 155 yards, one garbage-time touchdown and an interception. The problem was two-fold; first, he was battling Dick LeBeau, who has a nearly flawless record against rookie quarterbacks. Second, Manuel returned from injury way too early. We also saw it with Jay Cutler – players who come back prior to their expected return date tend to struggle because they’re not completely healthy. There is also somewhat of a “letdown” factor among the rest of the team, as the other players figure they don’t have to try as hard with the starting signal-caller once again manning the helm. The Bills would’ve been better off starting Thad Lewis last week.

Perhaps Lewis would be the better option in this contest as well. Manuel, who has major accuracy issues, hasn’t completed more than 56.4 percent of his passes in any game since Week 2. He went just 19-of-42 at the Jets back in Week 3, and that was with Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods on the field. Now, Manuel might be without both starting wideouts. Woods is battling an ankle, while Johnson was a bit pessimistic about playing in this contest because of a groin. The Jets can be exposed defensively via the receiver position – as we all saw in Cincinnati’s 49-9 blowout victory – but the Bills don’t look like they’ll have the personnel to take advantage of that liability.

Buffalo will have to lean heavily on C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson to move the chains. This looks quite difficult on paper, given that the Jets are No. 1 versus the rush in terms of YPC (3.11). Jackson posted a 7-72 line when the teams played in Week 3, but 56 yards came on one carry. Spiller, meanwhile, mustered just nine yards on 10 tries.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Aside from his victory over the Falcons, Geno Smith had the best performance of his career against the Bills in Week 3. He was just 16-of-29, but he threw for 331 yards on those attempts. He also scored three times, twice aerially and once on the ground. He was picked twice, but his deep bombs to Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill were awesome.

However, if Smith thinks he can simply repeat that performance, he’s sadly mistaken. First of all, he hasn’t played well on the road thus far, maintaining a 4:9 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in away contests. Second, Buffalo’s defense has improved greatly since the prior matchup. The Bills were so banged up in the secondary back then that they had to use someone named Justin Rogers, who was torched so frequently that he looked like the worst cornerback of all time. Rogers hasn’t even seen the field since Week 5, as the Bills now have Jairus Byrd, Leodis McKelvin and Stephon Gilmore healthy again. Gilmore isn’t actually playing very well right now, but it’s not like he has to cover any sort of stud wideout this week.

Aiding an improved secondary is a Buffalo pass rush that has more sacks than all but two teams (Chiefs, Ravens) this year. The Bills will get to Geno Smith, who has been sacked more than any other quarterback, save for Ryan Tannehill, Terrelle Pryor and Ben Roethlisberger. The Jets will have to lean on Chris Ivory again, as Buffalo has surrendered 90 or more rushing yards to four of its previous five opponents.

RECAP: I’ve had multiple people tell me that this is a shady spread. I suppose the public isn’t as cautious, as everyone is betting on the Jets. However, I think this line is right where it should be. It says that the Jets are 1.5 points better than the Bills, which I would agree with.

I don’t see any value on this game to make a play on either side. I was hoping the Jets would be favored so I could lay a couple of units with the Bills as a home dog, but it was not meant to be.

I’m picking Buffalo for no units. I’d like to fade the public, and I’m also guessing that the Jets’ win-loss-win-loss dynamic continues.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jets are a very public play. The sharps are all over the Bills. I wrote earlier that I wanted Buffalo as an underdog, but there’s not much value going from -1 to +1. If, for some reason, this spread moves to +3, I’ll add a couple of units on the home dog.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: There are 25-mph winds expected for this game. I’m still holding out hope that this spread will move to +3. I’ll be monitoring line movement until about 12:45.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

A good amount of action on the visitor.

Percentage of money on New York: 70% (53,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Jets have won 9 of the last 11 meetings.

Bills are 25-14 ATS in November home games the previous 39 contests.

Bills are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Heavy winds.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Bills 20, Jets 17
Bills +2 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 37, Jets 14

Detroit Lions (6-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)
Line: Lions by 3. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Lions -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 10): .
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Lions.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register!

By the way, you can check out the Pick Em Leaderboard here.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: As far as mismatches go, this one sticks out. The Lions have a forceful defensive front that can apply tons of pressure on the quarterback. Both Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley were dominant in Detroit’s victory over Chicago this past week, allowing defensive ends Willie Young and Devin Taylor to pressure the quarterback as well. The Lions put a ton of heat on Jay Cutler despite the fact that the Bears’ offensive line has improved tremendously this season. So, with that in mind, how is Pittsburgh’s decrepit offensive line supposed to handle Detroit?

If Ben Roethlisberger can stay upright, he’ll be able to expose some mismatches downfield. The Lions have issues in their secondary – Rashean Mathis is starting, for crying out loud – so the Pittsburgh wideouts will be able to get open. Roethlisberger finally has his full array of weapons on the field with Heath Miller and Markus Wheaton healthy again, but he may not have time in the pocket to connect with them.

Roethlisberger will have to do most of the work for the Steelers because Le’Veon Bell won’t be able to get anything on the ground. The Lions have permitted 2.71 yards per carry over the past four games. That’s the best mark in the NFL over that span by a wide margin; the next best number is the Giants’ 3.13 figure.

DETROIT OFFENSE: It doesn’t get much better on this side of the football. The Steelers were able to confuse E.J. Manuel last week, thanks to Dick LeBeau’s complicated schemes. Besides, Manuel didn’t seem ready to play, as he returned from injury prematurely. LeBeau won’t have nearly as much luck against a veteran like Matthew Stafford. In fact, Pittsburgh’s defense could suffer a similar fate as it did two weeks ago when Tom Brady and the Patriots posted more than 600 yards of offense against them.

The Steelers are old and slow defensively. Their veterans look worn out, while their young players aren’t stepping up. They also aren’t putting any pressure on opposing quarterbacks at all, as only four teams have fewer sacks than they do. Stafford is protected well, so he’ll be able to torch a declining Pittsburgh secondary that doesn’t have a prayer of covering Calvin Johnson.

Reggie Bush is someone else the Steelers will really have to worry about. Pittsburgh is an average 20th against the run in terms of YPC (4.08), but I just don’t see its aging veterans being able to handle Bush’s speed – especially when the elusive back is catching passes out of the backfield.

RECAP: The Lions are clearly the better team, but we knew that just by looking at their records and statistics. A big part of football betting is factoring in spots, and this is a horrible spot for Detroit.

The Lions just won a big divisional game at Chicago. With Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers injured, they’re pretty comfortable right now. This game doesn’t really mean anything to them. The Steelers, meanwhile, absolutely must have this game. They’re two games back of the second wild card spot, and they’re not in bad shape because they have the tie-breaker over the Jets. A loss here, however, would be absolutely crushing.

Also, keep in mind that Detroit isn’t that good on the road. The team lost to the Cardinals, needed luck to beat the Redskins, was blown out at Lambeau, trailed in Cleveland before Brandon Weeden self-destructed and then got away with a victory last week because Cutler was hobbled.

I love the Steelers in this spot, but I’m only going to lay one unit with them. The Lions are a much better team that could just take care of business.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s another game in which the sharps are all over the home dog. I’m staying with the Steelers for one unit.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Now at +3, I’m going to bump this up to two units. Heavy winds are expected, which should limit Detroit’s passing game. The Lions are comfortable playing in their dome they’re not built to win in conditions like this, and I love the idea of getting a field goal with the home dog.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

This game means much more to the Steelers, who are just two back of the second wild card spot (with the tie-breaker in hand). The Lions, meanwhile, are comfortably in first with the Packers and Bears missing their starting quarterbacks.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

No surprise that the public likes the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 75% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Lions are 10-20 ATS against losing teams the previous 30 instances.

Ben Roethlisberger is 17-14 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Lions -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Heavy winds.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Lions 17
Steelers +3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 37, Lions 27

Washington Redskins (3-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)
Line: Eagles by 5. Total: 54.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 10): Pick.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I’m going to touch on the Richie Incognito situation again. I wrote last week that I didn’t think it was a big deal, and I still don’t. I did find a related interview featuring former Eagles’ lineman Shawn Andrews to be very interesting, however. Andrews, talking to 97.5’s Mike Missanelli, revealed that Donovan McNabb bullied him when he was a rookie in 2004. He didn’t really go into what McNabb did specifically, but he said that McNabb was a real jerk to him. Andrews even went as far to approach Andy Reid about it and asked his coach if he could address the team. Andrews did so, but McNabb didn’t take it very seriously, as he just “rolled his eyes” the entire time Andrews was talking.

I thought that was interesting to hear. At any rate, this Incognito-Martin bullying situation will work out in five years, so no need to worry.

2. I posted my Jerk of the Year entry about the Redskins team name controversy on Monday, referencing Bob Costas’ lecture that he delivered a few weeks ago. As this was going on, I saw two amusing tweets. The first was from Steven L from FootballFanSpot.com:

If you want to watch a white man tell Native Americans they should be offended by the Redskins’ name, Bob Costas is coming up next.

Costas asked us what we thought the Redskins would be called if they had a name that offended blacks. The @NFLGoodwitch account instantly tweeted:

Washington Chocolate Brothas.

3. I used to keep up with some of the games I couldn’t immediately watch on NFL.com’s GameCenter. I’ve since moved on to CBS. I feel like their game-tracker is so much better. Everything that happens in each game flashes right next to the scores. Its pretend field is also easy to follow, unlike NFL.com’s strange polygons.

Best of all, it doesn’t screw up all that much. There are tons of errors each week on NFL.com, though they’re great to make fun of. For instance, TDAP sent this to me:

Are we sure Jake Locker is injured? Or was that just an imposter, and the real Locker is on Arizona?

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I’m still slotting Johnny Manziel to the Eagles in my 2014 NFL Mock Draft. Forgive me for not being a huge believer in Nick Foles yet, but I need to see a larger sample size. Foles was brilliant at Oakland, but the Raiders didn’t show up. He posted pretty stats at Green Bay, but the Packers were blowing coverages, and besides, Foles got very lucky as some underthrown ducks bounced off some Green Bay defenders. Let’s see how Foles does against a tougher defense, especially at home, where he was booed by the crowd the last time he played there.

Having said that, he won’t get tested very much against the Redskins, who have the third-worst secondary in the NFL in terms of YPA (8.27). Washington’s defense just made Christian Ponder look like the second coming of Joe Montana in its most recent game, so there’s no reason at all for Foles to have a repeat performance of the Dallas defeat – even with left tackle Jason Peters out of the lineup. Washington has a quality pass rush, but its secondary is so bad that it really doesn’t matter.

The Redskins also aren’t very good against the run. They’re only slightly better in that department compared to the pass, ranking 24th versus ground attacks in terms of YPC (4.3). LeSean McCoy, who finally snapped out of his funk last week against the Packers (23rd against the rush), will pick up where he left off and burst through Washington’s poor front seven.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles also have many defensive issues. After all, Scott Tolzien, who was waived by the 49ers prior to the season, stepped onto the field following Seneca Wallace’s injury, and he looked very capable for the most part. He frequently drove the Packers down the field on Philadelphia’s putrid secondary, but stalled in the red zone thrice (interception on a poor throw, James Jones’ foot out of bounds, Jordy Nelson touchdown incorrectly ruled incomplete by the corrupt Mike Carey).

The point is, if Tolzien can have tons of success throwing the ball on the Eagles, Robert Griffin can as well. Griffin was doing a tremendous job at Minnesota before his offensive line betrayed him in the fourth quarter. Griffin took numerous sacks, but he shouldn’t have that issue in this matchup. After all, the Eagles have mustered only 11 sacks in the past seven games. Excluding the Jaguars, no team in the NFL has fewer sacks in the current span.

Much of what Washington does offensively is predicated on the run, and the team shouldn’t have much of an issue establishing Alfred Morris. The Eagles have surrendered big games to Eddie Lacy and Rashad Jennings the past two weeks, so there’s no reason for Morris not to have success on the ground, especially considering that Philadelphia will also have to worry about Griffin sprinting out of the backfield. Griffin didn’t do much running in the prior matchup against the Eagles – five scrambles, 24 rush yards – but he has been more of a factor as a runner since his team’s Week 5 bye.

RECAP: This is a classic overreaction game. This spread was -3 a week ago, but Washington’s loss to Minnesota forced this up half a point over the key number of three. The Redskins were in a tough spot, traveling off a short week, so it’s understandable that they lost to the Vikings. Despite the disparity in the two teams’ records, the Redskins and Eagles are essentially the same, making Washington a quality bet based solely on principle.

There are some other things in the Redskins’ favor as well. First of all, the Eagles are dreadful at home (see trends below). Second, underdogs playing in their second road game cover the spread at an unusually high rate. This is also a revenge spot for Washington, as a divisional teams avenging a loss of 14-plus on the road tend to cover.

The Redskins are one of my top picks this week. There’s plenty of value with them, and I’m not sold on the Eagles at all.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Redskins. I’m not sure why this spread rose from +3.5 to +5.5 randomly on Thursday, but it’s back down to -4.5. I’ll have to add a fifth unit if it gets to +6.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 55% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Eagles have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Eagles are 6-23 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Redskins 27, Eagles 24
Redskins +5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 54 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 24, Redskins 16

Baltimore Ravens (4-5) at Chicago Bears (5-4)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 10): Bears -3.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

Random College Football Notes:

1. “I would put my size-13 boot up Johnny Manziel’s backside.”

This is a quote that I would make up for Matt Millen in my fake conversations. But he actually said this. I couldn’t believe it.

I’ve come up with two conclusions about this: First, Millen doesn’t read this Web site, or he’d be aware of his unintentional heterosexually challenged comments. Second, Millen has run out of kielbasas and now has kinky nights with boots instead of kielbasas.

2. Speaking of Millen, here’s a comment I received from David S. last year during the bowl season:

Just wanted to share with you that while watching the FSU-Northern Illinois last night, I startled my wife by erupting in a fit of uncontrolled laughter. No, this had nothing to do with the Huskies’ performance, but rather, Kielbasa Man’s description of an FSU player as “100-percent man.” Even my non-football-loving wife thought it was funny when I explained the blog reference.

Chris B. heard the same thing:

Your boy Matt Millen is announcing the NIU-Florida St. game, and I’m pretty sure he just called Colin Klein Calvin Klein. He just called one of the FSU O-Linemen 100% man, and that he is still raw.

A sexy night with boots and kielbasas and 100-percent raw offensive linemen wearing Calvin Klein? Best night ever for Mr. Millen.

3. This might be the last time I discuss Charlie Weis as a head coach on any level, but his game management is incredibly stupid. His team was down 28-0 in the third quarter. He was faced with a fourth-and-long near the opposing 25. A field goal wouldn’t have done any good because the Jayhawks still would’ve been down four scores. So, what did Weis do? He kicked a field goal, of course.

All right, so that was a long-distance situation, so it could be argued that a field goal wasn’t the worst thing in the world. But what happened at the beginning of the fourth quarter? Now down 35-3, Kansas was inside Oklahoma State’s 10-yard line. Weis called for a field goal to make it a 35-6 game.

Nice job with those field goals, Weis. They really changed the momentum of the game. I’d make fun of you, but I know your brain is made out of doughnuts, so you’re not capable of making sound decisions.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens are incredibly bad offensively. They’re really missing Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta, but the big problem has been their inability to run the ball. Ray Rice, who is injured and should be relinquishing most of his carries to Bernard Pierce until he gets healthy, doesn’t have any running room to work with. Baltimore’s offensive line has struggled immensely without center Matt Birk. Kelechi Osemele playing hurt and now being out of the lineup has also been damaging.

Having said all of this, Rice and Pierce figure to have more luck in this matchup. They weren’t able to do anything versus the Browns and Bengals – both of whom are in the top 10 in run defense (in terms of YPC) – but Chicago is 30th in that department. The Bears have been especially dreadful against the rush lately, as their previous four opponents have averaged a ridiculous 159.5 rushing yards against them.

Chicago has all sorts of other problems on defense. The back seven has been ravaged by injuries, as Charles Tillman, Lance Briggs and D.J. Williams have all been out. As a result, the Bears are 28th against the pass in terms of YPA (8.22). They’re also unable to get to the quarterback consistently. They mustered five sacks against the Packers two weeks ago, but have just 10 sacks on the year if that game is excluded. The Ravens generally don’t protect Joe Flacco well at all, but they’ll have more success doing so against one of the worst stop units in the NFL. Perhaps all of this will help Baltimore score more than 20 points for the second time this season since the opener.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears made a big mistake to rush Jay Cutler back from injury last week. Cutler returned earlier than expected and operated at less than 100 percent as a result. Besides, it’s not like Josh McCown has been inept or anything; there actually hasn’t been that much of a drop-off between Cutler and McCown, so why not go with McCown until Cutler’s healthy?

That being said, it’s difficult to envision McCown having much success in this game. He has played extensive action against the Redskins and Packers this year. Both teams have miserable defenses. The Ravens, on the other hand, have a strong stop unit that doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, outside of the safety position. Baltimore is especially strong when it comes to pressuring the quarterback. Chicago’s offensive line has improved this season, but the unit struggled last week against the Lions. That figures to be the case again, as no team except for the Chiefs has accumulated more sacks than the Ravens this year.

The Bears’ front not only was inept when it came to protecting Cutler last week; it also failed to open up any running lanes for Matt Forte, who was limited to 33 yards on 17 carries. Expect more of the same, as the Ravens are even better against the run than the Lions are. Forte will at least serve as a solid safety valve for McCown, who will have to get rid of the ball in a hurry.

RECAP: I don’t have a strong lean on either side, as the spread is right where it should be. This will be a zero-unit pick, but I’m going with the Ravens, only because we’re getting points with the strongest unit on the field (Baltimore’s defense).

FINAL THOUGHTS: Bob Scucci told Chad Millman that he expects sharp money to come in on Baltimore. I have nothing to add here, as I still don’t have an opinion.

WEATHER UPDATE: Weather.com is calling for heavy winds in this game. That means you have to look at taking the points and betting the under. I’ll go with one unit on Under 41.5.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Haloti Ngata is out, just in case you were thinking about betting the Ravens. I still have no opinion on either side. The under seems like the right play.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 59% (32,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Bears are 29-18 ATS in November since 2001.

Opening Line: Bears -3.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Heavy winds.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Ravens 17, Bears 14
Ravens +3 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 41 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Bears 23, Ravens 20

Cleveland Browns (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)
Line: Bengals by 6. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 10): Bengals -4.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Browns.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Three years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

As for 2012, I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that.

A man named Mark Pepe e-mailed me. I eventually convinced him to call someone in the Eagles’ organization to ask for Riley Cooper. I also did the same thing to another spammer by pretending to be Aaron Hernandez. Check out the Spam Mails page to see it.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: One of the many reasons I had the Ravens +1 as my NFL Pick of the Month last week is because the Bengals are missing Geno Atkins and Leon Hall. The latter happens to be one of the team’s top players, while Atkins is among the best talents in the entire league. Cincinnati’s defense was a stout unit at the beginning of the season, but it’s nowhere near as potent without Atkins and Hall.

The Browns will be able to move the chains on the Bengals. They’ve actually had a capable offense ever since Jason Campbell displaced Brandon Weeden. Campbell hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s been solid, which is a huge upgrade over the dreadful Weeden. In two starts against the fierce Kansas City and Baltimore defenses, Campbell has completed 61.3 percent of his passes, maintained a 7.5 YPA and held a 5:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. If Campbell could lead the Browns into scoring position many times against the Chiefs and Ravens, why can’t he do so versus the Atkins- and Hall-less Bengals?

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: With the Bengals’ stop unit not functioning as well as it once did, Andy Dalton will have to carry the team. This presents as problem, as Dalton has fizzled out in his previous two starts after a very hot streak. Dalton has been overthrowing all of his receivers and has heaved six interceptions in his previous two starts as a consequence.

Dalton has been better at home, so there’s some hope that he’ll rebound after a pair of sluggish performances on the road. However, I say only “some” hope because the Browns have one of the top defenses in the NFL. They’re ranked first against aerial attacks in terms of YPA (6.01), thanks to a strong pass rush and Joe Haden eliminating the opposing team’s No. 1 receiver. If you don’t think Haden can stymie A.J. Green, please refer to the Week 5 matchup between these two squads when the stud wideout was limited to just 51 receiving yards. Having said that, Marvin Jones has emerged as a competent No. 2 wideout, so Dalton will be better prepared to handle Cleveland’s stop unit this time around.

The problem for Dalton is that he won’t be able to rely on Giovani Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis helping him on the ground. The Browns’ monstrous front seven is ranked third versus the rush in terms of YPC (3.36).

RECAP: I like the Browns, but I’m not betting on them. This spread is way too high, and Cincinnati is coming off a devastating overtime loss. However, I’m not too confident in Cleveland because the Bengals play much better as hosts. Besides, I’m never too excited to bet on non-elite teams coming off a bye that were victorious prior to their week off. Everyone has been telling the Browns how much better they’ve been playing, so they could be a bit full of themselves heading into this matchup.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Browns. The best line out there is +6 at Bovada. You’ll see +5 or +5.5 elsewhere, so hop on +6 if you can.

WEATHER UPDATE: Weather.com is calling for heavy winds in this game (though not as bad as those in Chicago). That means you have to look at taking the points and betting the under.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

A good amount of money on the host.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 66% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

History: Bengals have won 13 of the last 18 meetings (home team has won last 4).

Bengals are 14-31 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Bengals are 7-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.

Andy Dalton is 1-4 ATS as a favorite coming off a loss.

Marvin Lewis is 3-6 ATS as a favorite after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Bengals -6.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Heavy winds.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Bengals 17, Browns 14
Browns +6 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 41, Browns 20

Oakland Raiders (3-6) at Houston Texans (2-7)
Line: Texans by 9.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 10): Texans -4.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

Video of the Week: I asked my friends on Facebook to send me funny videos for the Video of the Week section. This one is from Nicholas S. It’s entitled Complete History of the Soviet Union, Arranged to the Melody of Tetris. Yeah, it’s as cool as it sounds.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Raider supporters have to be thrilled that Terrelle Pryor is dealing with a knee injury right now. Not that any fans outside of Houston want to see their starting quarterback hurt, but it’s at least an explanation for Pryor’s sudden decline. Pryor got off to a hot start with the help of Greg Olson’s tutelage, but has fizzled ever since taking a fierce hit to the lower body a few weeks ago.

Unfortunately for Pryor, he isn’t suddenly going to suddenly get healthy and improve. If he even plays – he missed Wednesday’s practice – he’ll have to deal with the toughest defense he has faced since battling the Chiefs back in Week 6. He has taken on the old Steelers, Eagles and Giants ever since, but now he’ll have to go up against the Texans. This obviously includes J.J. Watt, who will make life extremely difficult for Pryor or Matt McGloin. The Raiders are tied with the Dolphins for the most sacks allowed this season, so I don’t see how they can possibly have any success blocking Watt and company.

The Raiders will at least have some success running the ball. The Texans are an average 16th against the rush in terms of YPC (3.93), and they just surrendered 103 yards on the ground to the Cardinals, so even if Darren McFadden is unavailable, Rashad Jennings should have a decent outing. Jennings has performed well in McFadden’s absence, perhaps because opposing teams still view Pryor as a great running threat. Jennings obviously won’t have nearly as much running room if Pryor sits.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Case Keenum had a mixed performance last week. He started poorly, then caught fire in the first half, but struggled toward the end of the game. He finished by airing out two passes way out of bounds on the final drive, giving his team no hope of a comeback. Overall though, I’d say Keenum performed pretty admirably considering that he was battling an extremely stout Arizona defense in just his third start.

The Raiders obviously won’t offer nearly as much resistance; after all, they did surrender an NFL-record seven touchdowns to Nick Foles two weeks ago. Foles’ performance was a bit out an outlier though, as Oakland simply didn’t show up. Its aerial defense isn’t that bad; it did a pretty decent job of limiting Eli Manning this past Sunday. The Raiders can get to the quarterback, thanks to Lamarr Houston, and they should be able to put some heat on Keenum, as Houston is in the bottom 10 of sacks allowed.

The Giants were still able to prevail despite Manning’s struggles because of Andre Brown, who rushed for 115 yards on 30 carries in his debut last week. Brown looked great, so look for Houston to establish Ben Tate early on. Tate has seemingly gotten used to playing with his rib injury, but he’ll still be limited to 15-20 touches. A healthier Tate would bulldoze the Raiders for close to 200 yards, but the Raiders are fortunate enough to catch the Texans when their running backs aren’t anywhere near 100 percent.

RECAP: I’m going with the Raiders for a unit if Pryor starts. This line is simply too high for a mediocre Houston team missing its head coach, and Oakland is in a good spot; teams often cover as visiting underdogs in their second-consecutive road game. However, if Pryor sits, I’m going to cancel this selection and possibly even switch over to Houston. Stay tuned.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m changing my pick to the Texans. I wrote earlier that I won’t do that unless there’s a major injury. Well, that happens to be the case with Terrelle Pryor out. I don’t have any confidence in Oakland’s ability to cover with Matt McGloin under center.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Lots of money piling on the Houston ever since it was announced that Terrelle Pryor would be out.

Percentage of money on Houston: 72% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Raiders are 12-6 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Texans are 35-19 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-5 ATS as favorites).

Opening Line: Texans -7.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Raiders 9
Texans -9.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 28, Texans 23

Arizona Cardinals (5-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)
Line: Cardinals by 8. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 10): Cardinals -6.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts is back for a second season! As with everything else though, I’m moving it to its own separate page. See what’s going on this week with this picture here:

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars scored 29 points on the Titans this past week, but their offense really wasn’t responsible for that output. They posted a safety, while many of their points came off Jake Locker and Chris Johnson turnovers. In the end, Jacksonville mustered just 214 net yards of offense.

If the Jaguars could barely move the ball on Tennessee’s poor defense – 3-of-12 on third-down conversions – how are they going to keep drives alive versus Arizona? The Cardinals have maintained a dominant stop unit ever since inside linebacker Daryl Washington returned from suspension. Washington excels at blitzing, which would explain how Arizona has been able to accumulate 19 sacks in the past five games. Only three teams have surrendered more sacks than the Jaguars, so Chad Henne will be in trouble, especially considering that he won’t have anyone to throw to. With Justin Blackmon gone for the year, Patrick Peterson can focus on shutting down Cecil Shorts.

Don’t expect much from Maurice Jones-Drew either. Jones-Drew couldn’t even hit two yards per carry (21-41) against Tennessee’s soft defense. Arizona is third versus the rush in terms of YPC (3.39).

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Speaking of plodding running backs, what the hell is Bruce Arians thinking with Rashard Mendenhall? Why does he keep using him? Mendenhall is a slow, injury-prone runner who falls forward for two-yard gains. And it’s not like he’s reliable either; he fumbles in crucial situations. Andre Ellington is so much more explosive, so it’s inexcusable that Arians isn’t giving his sixth-round rookie 20-plus touches per game.

There will be plenty of running room against the Jaguars, who are 26th in terms of stopping the run (4.53 YPC). As bad as that is, however, Mendenhall won’t be able to take advantage of it. Ellington will be able to, but will he get the ball?

Another question is whether Carson Palmer will be able to avoid his trademark two turnovers or not. Palmer remarkably has been guilty of multiple give-aways in seven of nine games this season. Quite frankly, that’s the only way the Jaguars can stay in this game. If Palmer takes care of the football, this will be an easy victory. Jacksonville’s putrid secondary won’t be able to stop Palmer if he’s mistake-free.

RECAP: I’m not a fan of laying a touchdown on the road with a mediocre team, but this is a special case because the Jaguars are an abomination. They got their fluke win out of the way, so now they’ll continue to do what they do best – lose by double digits.

FINAL THOUGHTS: You might expect the sharps to be on the Jaguars, but they actually like the Cardinals. The trend I brought up earlier in the Buccaneers-Falcons final thoughts also applies, but Jacksonville could be the worst team in NFL history. Don’t bet on them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

No one’s buying the Jaguars yet.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 80% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Jaguars are 9-18 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Jaguars are 17-40 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Cardinals -6.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Cardinals 23, Jaguars 13
Cardinals -8 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 27, Jaguars 14

Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games
San Diego�at�Miami, Kansas City at Denver, Minnesota at Seattle, San Francisco at New Orleans, Green Bay at NY Giants, New England at Carolina

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)