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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 17, 5:55 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball
Go to Week 11 NFL Picks - Early Games
San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Miami Dolphins (4-5)
Line: Chargers by 2. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread:
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 10):
Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: None.
This summer, I ran a Mafia game on the Web site called Penn State Sex Scandal Mafia
. You can click the link to read the introduction and see the list of players. I'll add to this page throughout the season, listing roles and talking about funny things that happened during the game.
Why am I doing this? Well, I wanted to post this on the main section of this Web site so that the mainstream media people who have sand in their vages will pick up on this and complain that I'm being insensitive.
Oh, and by the way, we have other Mafia games going on right now in the Mafia Forum
. Mafia is a blast, so come and join the fun.
Much was made about Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito's absence in Monday night's game, yet Ryan Tannehill was sacked just twice. Sure, both of those sacks came at the worst time possible - the final offensive possession - but Tannehill wasn't touched until then. That might make it seem like the Dolphins will be OK without two of its starting linemen going forward, but that's definitely not the case.
The Buccaneers have a very poor pass rush - only five teams currently have fewer sacks - so they weren't going to rattle Tannehill much anyway. The big difference Monday night came in the running game, as the Dolphins finished with just two rushing yards. Incognito and Martin both specialized in opening up running lanes, so Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas' production will decine sharply until Miami finds viable replacements for its two starters. Luckily for the Dolphins, the Chargers struggle against ground attacks, ranking 28th in terms of YPC (4.6). Miller won't have a huge game running the ball, but he'll be way more productive than he was Monday night.
San Diego also happens to have a poor secondary; the team is actually dead last when it comes to stopping aerial attacks (8.59 YPA). Tannehill couldn't connect with Mike Wallace on Monday night because the speedy wideout was smothered by Darrelle Revis. The Chargers don't have any way to take Wallace out of the game, so he'll have a bounce-back performance. It'll also be interesting to see if Tannehill still keeps hooking up with Rishard Matthews, who came out of nowhere to catch 11 passes and two touchdowns at Tampa.
SAN DIEGO OFFENSE:
Philip Rivers knows what Tannehill is going through all too well. He dealt a horrific offensive line last year. One of the many reasons Rivers has improved this year is because the Chargers' front office improved his blocking. The key move, aside from drafting D.J. Fluker, was signing King Dunlap. This wasn't viewed as a particularly sharp acquisition in the offseason, but Dunlap has been very solid protecting Rivers' blind side.
Unfortunately, Dunlap suffered a concussion this past week and is not expected to play Sunday. If this doesn't seem like a big deal to you, you're greatly mistaken. Dunlap's absence means that Jeromey Clary will be forced to play tackle again. This is horrible news for Rivers, as Clary was one of the most inept offensive tackles in the NFL last season. And to make matters worse, Clary will be lining up across from Cameron Wake in this contest!
It's safe to say that Rivers won't enjoy the same protection he's had all season. Add in the fact that Brent Grimes will be draped all over new, promising receiver Keenan Allen, and San Diego's offense won't move the chains very efficiently in this contest. Rivers will have to rely on dumping the ball off to Danny Woodhead and handing it to Ryan Mathews, who will have some success against a Miami ground defense that had issues bringing down Mike James prior to his injury; the Dolphins rank 21st in terms of YPC (4.08).
Everyone and their mother is on the Chargers. Just look at the betting action below. San Diego is an easy pick. How can it not beat the reeling Dolphins, who are distracted?
Well, I'm going with the home underdog. Aside from the shady antics that will occur in this game because Vegas will need the Dolphins to cover, I'm picking the host because the Chargers are in a bad spot. They're coming off an emotionally draining loss to the Broncos, and they're somehow supposed to get up for this Miami team after traveling across the country. That's going to be very difficult.
Also, this is an obvious overreaction game. Everyone saw the Dolphins lose Monday night to the winless Buccaneers, and every media pundit is now saying that they're done. That's why they're an easy fade for Joe Public. However, Miami beat the Bengals the week before that, and Cincinnati is better than San Diego. Besides, the Dolphins were dealing with this bullying scandal back then, and it didn't affect them. They also held the lead in the second half Monday night, by the way.
Meanwhile, the Chargers have blocking issues of their own because they won't have their left tackle. They should not be favored in this game; I have the Dolphins at -1.5. This is a two-unit play for me.
The Chargers are the No. 1 square bet of the week. The sharps are all over the Dolphins.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:
Maurkice Pouncey is out. Just what Miami needed - another lineman out. I'm dropping this to one unit.
The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.
The Chargers are coming off a draining loss to the Broncos. They have Kansas City next week. However, the Dolphins could still be distracted by the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin bullying scandal.
The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
Lots of early money on the Chargers.
Percentage of money on San Diego: 86% (13,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
Dolphins are 13-4 ATS as a home underdog after two straight losses the previous 17 instances.
Dolphins are 8-25 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.
Underdog is 45-21 ATS in the Dolphins' last 66 games.
Opening Line: Dolphins -1.
Opening Total: 45.5.
Week 11 NFL Pick: Dolphins 23, Chargers 20
Dolphins +2 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Under 45 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Dolphins 20, Chargers 16
Minnesota Vikings (2-7) at Seattle Seahawks (9-1)
Line: Seahawks by 12.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -11.5.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 10): Seahawks -18.5.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
If you haven't made your Week 11 selection in the WalterFootball.com 2013 NFL Survivor Pool, make sure you do so. There are only 25 people remaining out of the original 2,580. A whopping 171 were eliminated last week, thanks to the inept Titans. To see a report of how many teams are being picked for survivor this week, click here.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: Percy Harvin is back! The explosive receiver is healthy enough to take the field for the first time in a Seahawk uniform, coincidentally enough against his former team. This is obviously not good news for the Vikings, who haven't been able to stop anyone this season, particularly on third down.
This is a pretty brutal mismatch on this side of the ball. The Vikings have a horrific secondary that can't cover anyone. If you watched this past Thursday night game, you saw so many Washington receivers wide open down the field, even on third-and-long situations. Seattle's offense is more reliable than Washington's with Harvin back in the lineup because its quarterback is actually 100 percent. Russell Wilson isn't protected very well, but he's able to get out of trouble and either buy himself time in the pocket or scamper downfield.
Marshawn Lynch will also have success running the ball. The Vikings just surrendered 147 rushing yards on 29 carries, so Lynch will simply pick up where Alfred Morris left off. As with its previous matchup, Minnesota won't be able to completely focus on the opposing running back because the quarterback happens to be a scrambling threat.
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Christian Ponder began Thursday's game with a sack because he held the ball too long, and then he followed that with an ugly interception. Things were not looking good, but he got his act together and torched Washington's defense before leaving the game with a shoulder injury. That performance was nice, but it was also a mirage because of how bad the Redskin secondary is. The Seahawks, even with Brandon Browner out, have a dominant aerial defense that will make things extremely difficult for Ponder.
With that in mind, it's absolutely essential that the Minnesota defense keeps this game close because it'll be a disaster if Ponder has to throw all the time. If these teams are close, Adrian Peterson will be able to run the football effectively against a Seattle ground defense that was leaky against the Buccaneers and the Rams. The Seahawks improved last week, limiting the Falcons to 49 rushing yards, but that was because Steven Jackson has suddenly transformed into an 80-year-old man. If Mike James was able to expose the Seahawks' holes, I'm pretty sure Peterson will be able to have much more success.
If, however, Minnesota's stop unit performs like it always does, it's going to be a long night for Ponder. Only the Chiefs and Ravens have accumulated more sacks than Seattle this year, and Ponder may not have right tackle Phil Loadholt blocking for him. That means the beleaguered J'Marcus Webb will be tasked with keeping Bruce Irvin out of the backfield on long-distance situations. Good luck with that, J'Marcus.
RECAP: I like the Seahawks a lot this week. I'm always a fan of betting them at home whenever they're in a good spot. This actually happens to be a great spot, as elite teams heading into their bye often cover as home favorites. The Vikings, meanwhile, have an ugly track record in outdoor games (see trends below). They're also coming off a BS home underdog win in which they were outgained by 100-plus yards. Teams that triumphed in such a manner have a terrible history covering the spread (20-47 ATS since 1989).
FINAL THOUGHTS: Speaking with ESPN's Chad Millman, Bob Scucci had to move the line in Minnesota's direction because he received a $15,000 professional bet on the Vikings. The sharps like Minnesota a lot, but only based on principle. Sharp bettors will almost always take double-digit dogs (12-8 ATS this year), but this is a major mismatch, and I don't think the Vikings have much of a chance.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Chad Millman told Colin Cowherd that the sharp play is Seattle despite that $15,000 bet.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
Lots of late money on the Seahawks.
Percentage of money on Seattle: 77% (37,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
Vikings are 9-21 ATS outdoors since 2008.
Seahawks are 21-8 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
Opening Line: Seahawks -13.5.
Opening Total: 47.
Week 11 NFL Pick: Seahawks 30, Vikings 10
Seahawks -12.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
Under 46 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 41, Vikings 20
San Francisco 49ers (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (7-2)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -2.5.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 10): Saints -3.5.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Saints.
If you didn't catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 6, Episode 10 has been posted - Jonathan Martin confronts Richie Incognito five years later.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I received the following e-mail as I was posting my picks earlier: "I started feeling sorry for you regarding the 49ers losing TE-Vern Davis to a concussion when they had a 9-0 lead. I then looked up Davis' stats (1 catch for 2 yards). That really must have contributed to the 9-0 lead ? NOT. You almost always find a reason to rationalize awa your big losses."
Despite the stat, Davis' loss had a huge impact. Here's what I said in response: "You don't think Vernon Davis being out allowed the Panthers to concentrate on the 49ers' other weapons? How about Davis' blocking? Colin Kaepernick's career QBR with Davis is 77.7 and without Davis, it's 16.1. The bottom line is this: If you were to tell me Davis would get injured in the 2nd quarter, I would not have bet on the 49ers."
Davis will be on the field despite the concussion he suffered last week. This is obviously great news for Kaepernick; as you can see, he's a train wreck without his talented tight end. Kaepernick has maintained a 9:2 touchdown-to-turnover ratio in between Davis' first return from injury and his Sunday concussion. Kaepernick hasn't thrown very much this season, however, so he hasn't posted big numbers or anything. He may not need to do that this Sunday.
Everyone seems to be wondering how the 49ers can move the ball on the Saints. It's simple: They can run the ball with Frank Gore. New Orleans gets after the quarterback extremely well, but its defense can't stop the rush; it's tied for dead last with the Cowboys in that department in terms of YPC (4.83). Gore figures to have a monstrous performance, which will set up Kaepernick in favorable down-and-distance situations, helping him avoid the Saints' fierce pass rush.
NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Conversely, everyone is enamored with the Saints' scoring attack right now. But can you blame them? New Orleans, after all, just set an NFL record with 40 first downs.
Before we all get too excited, let's remember that the Saints did this against the Cowboys, who were missing stud linebacker Sean Lee for half the game. San Francisco's defense is much better than Dallas', even with Lee in the lineup. While the Cowboys surrender 400-yard passing performances like it's nothing, the 49ers rank fifth against aerial attacks in terms of YPA (6.35), though it should be noted that Eric Reid is not expected to play because he's dealing with a concussion that he suffered Sunday.
Another big injury that the 49ers endured in their loss to the Panthers was to defensive end Ray McDonald, who hurt his ankle. McDonald is also projected to be out, which is huge for New Orleans. As I discussed two weeks ago in the Saints-Jets pick capsule, Drew Brees hates interior pressure more than anything. He can deal with a pass rush from the outside because he releases the ball so quickly, but pressure up the middle really rattles him. Without McDonald, San Francisco won't be able to generate nearly as much heat on Brees. Justin Smith is still there, but having McDonald on the field would make this matchup much more favorable.
RECAP: This is one of the most lopsided-bet games of the week. The average gambler is looking at this game and thinking, "How can the Saints not win by at least a field goal at home?" Well, San Francisco is just as good as New Orleans, but I must admit that picking the 49ers to cover in the Superdome is pretty daunting.
Well, the one thing the Saints have going against them is that they have to battle a divisional opponent in four days. Sure, it's just the Falcons, but we've seen favorites crap the bed prior to playing a divisional game on a Thursday night. Besides, based on pictures circling the Internet, Rob Ryan did too much partying following the win over his former employer. He may not have a great game plan prepared for the 49ers.
Having said that, I think this will be a three-point game, so I'm not betting on either side. I'll take the 49ers because all of this action could prompt some shady stuff to happen in this contest.
FINAL THOUGHTS: There's sharp and square money on the Saints. I guess I'm one of the few who likes the 49ers. I don't love them enough to bet them though, as this spread is set too low for some reason. I'm not sure why Vegas put out such a stupid spread unless they know something about San Francisco having a great chance to cover.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The Saints are the most popular pick in the SuperContest, according to Matvei. Popular SuperContest selections have been dreadful this year. This is great news for all those backing the 49ers. By the way, a cool trend from RJinVegas: Jim Harbaugh is 10-2 against the spread versus teams that have a .700 record or better.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
Everyone is all over this strange low spread.
Percentage of money on New Orleans: 83% (63,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Saints.
Saints are 30-13 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.
Opening Line: Saints -3.
Opening Total: 47.5.
Week 11 NFL Pick: Saints 27, 49ers 26
49ers +3 (0 Units) -- Push; $0
Over 50 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Saints 23, 49ers 20
Green Bay Packers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6)
Line: Giants by 4. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Rodgers).
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 10): Giants -2.5.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: None.
A reminder that Jerks of the Week for Nov. 11, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is the Redskins' team name controversy.
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: If you listen to Bill Simmons' podcast, you may have heard that Simmons ran into
Reggie Randall Cobb, who told him that "No. 12 will be back sooner than you think." This is obviously great news for the Packers, although Aaron Rodgers did already rule himself out of this contest. But that's OK because Scott Tolzien is here to save the day!
Tolzien actually wasn't that bad last week. He looked like a functional quarterback; he drove the Packers down the field pretty consistently, though he did sputter in the red zone. He tossed an ugly pick way behind Jordy Nelson in the first half. He looked better later, but James Jones couldn't get two feet inbounds for a touchdown. Corrupt official Mike Carey then ruled that Nelson let the ball hit the ground in the end zone when it was evident that Nelson came up with the reception. Carey is renowned for making crooked calls, so it's a shame for the Packers that they were on the wrong side of Carey's betting incentives last week.
But I digress. Tolzien is functional, and he has the weapons around him to succeed - at least against poor defenses. The Eagles qualify as such, and so do the Giants, whose issues against aerial attacks have been documented all year. They've done better lately, but only because they haven't been tested; their three-game winning streak has come against a hobbled Terrible Pryor, Matt Barkley and Josh Freeman. I suppose Tolzien belongs in that pantheon, but the Packers are going to keep it on the ground anyway with the powerful Eddie Lacy. He'll be going up against a New York defense that surrendered around 4.5 yards per carry to the Oakland running backs last week.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants have quarterback issues of their own. They don't involve injuries, but Eli Manning has struggled all season. He has maintained a YPA greater than 6.4 in only three games all year, and he tossed a whopping 10 interceptions in those contests. Manning has just one give-away in the past three games, but he's battled the Vikings, Eagles and Raiders, all of whom have major issues defending the pass.
The Packers belong in that group. It's unbelievable how many blown coverages they were guilty of against the Eagles. Of course, it didn't help that the front seven barely put any pressure on Nick Foles, as both Clay Matthews and Nick Perry, making their returns to the lineup, were non-factors while playing limited snaps. They figure to be healthier this week, and they don't have a particularly tough matchup against the Giants' poor offensive line. New York's blocking issues have been paramount this year, and if Matthews and Perry show signs of life this week, they'll be prevalent yet again.
As with Green Bay, a potent rushing attack is keeping the Giants afloat. Andre Brown made his return to the lineup this past Sunday after suffering an injury in the final week of the preseason, and New York's coaching staff wasted no time getting him the ball. Brown pummeled the Raiders for 115 yards on a whopping 30 carries. Oakland was actually pretty decent versus the rush entering the contest (6th, 3.72 YPC), so what's going to happen to the Packers, who are 23rd in that department in terms of YPC (4.25)?
RECAP: This spread opened at -7, and the sharps bet it down to -6 immediately. I still felt like there was great value with the six points. The Rodgers-less Packers and Giants are pretty even as far as I'm concerned, so throw in the Giants' homefield disadvantage, and my calculated line for this game is -2.5. Unfortunately, the spread has continued to fall, and it's now -4.5 or -5 depending on where you look.
I like Green Bay a good deal, as the team is in a good spot to cover. The Packers need some wins to keep them afloat until Rodgers comes back, while the Giants could be focused on their impending matchups against the Cowboys and Redskins. Next week's contest versus Dallas is far more important than this one, as New York can pull to within one game of the Cowboys with a victory.
I initially was going to place three units on the Giants +6, but the value is gone. I'll make it two units for +4.5 or +5.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have bet this spread down. Again, I'd have three units on the Packers at +6, but only two at +4 (or +3.5 if it gets to that on Sunday).
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: I hope you got +4 (or better yet, +6). This has been bet down to +3 or +3.5, as there is TONS of sharp action on the Packers.
The Psychology. Edge: Packers.
The Giants have to worry about the Cowboys and Redskins after this. Do you think they're preparing for Scott Tolzien?
The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
Percentage of money on New York: 63% (38,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Opening Line: Giants -6.5.
Opening Total: 43.
Week 11 NFL Pick: Giants 24, Packers 22
Packers +4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Over 41 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Giants 27, Packers 13
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at Denver Broncos (8-1)
Line: Broncos by 7.5. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -7.5.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 10): Broncos -9.5.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Unknown.
I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.
I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.
I added a second fake account this year - Vivian Williamson. This is based off of Miss Vivian, a security guard at the Philadelphia International Airport, whom I've written about in Jerks of the Week (click the link to read about her).
Unfortunately, some a**holes with no sense of humor decided to flag Miss Vivian as a troller, so I had to make a new account. Kevin Reilly has been born!
Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.
DENVER OFFENSE: I found it amusing when several people on ESPN suggested that the lower-body injury Peyton Manning suffered at the end of the San Diego game wouldn't have much an impact on his performance this week because he doesn't scramble very much. First of all, Manning does move around; he doesn't sprint downfield or anything, but he navigates the pocket to avoid some pressure extremely well. Second, a quarterback with a lower-body injury can't get as much into his throws. If Manning is banged up, it'll definitely have an effect on this game.
But that's the question: Is Manning healthy? He says he's fine, but all athletes say that. It's impossible to know Manning's status until we see him hit the field Sunday night. If he is indeed fine, he'll have success, even against Kansas City's vaunted defense. The Chiefs are ranked in the top-five in pretty much every major category, but it must be noted that all of their numbers are inflated because of the competition they've faced. In their previous five games, the Chiefs have taken on Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrible Pryor, Case Keenum (making his first start), Jason Campbell and Jeff "Ryan" Tuel. It's certainly not their fault that they've had such easy games, but it makes it extremely difficult to completely buy into them. Besides, even the top NFL defenses have a tough time stopping Manning. The Ravens, back when they had Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, seldom had success against him (obviously excludes January's playoff victory). He's just that good, and he has more weapons than ever on this offense.
However, on the flip side, if Manning is operating at about 75 percent or less, the Chiefs will have success against him. Manning doesn't deal with fierce pressure very well, as we've seen in some of his unexpected playoff losses. Kansas City has more sacks than any other team in the NFL, so Manning will find life to be extremely difficult if he can't navigate the pocket and buy himself some time.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: As good as the Chiefs' defense is, their offense will have to score enough points to keep up with the Broncos, who will almost certainly get into the mid-20s at the very least. This presents a problem, as Kansas City has eclipsed 26 points just twice all year: once against the pathetic Jaguars, and a second time against the Giants, thanks to a special-teams touchdown that broke open a 10-7 game late in the third quarter.
The reason for this, which happens to be why I've had the Chiefs relatively low in my NFL Power Rankings, is Alex Smith. He's limited because he can't stretch defenses. He doesn't even have the weaponry to do that anyway, as the recently arrested Dwayne Bowe has predictably lacked burst this year after signing a long-term contract. It also hurts that Smith isn't protected very well; only nine teams have surrendered more sacks than Kansas City. The Broncos lacked a pass rush earlier in the year, but they've gotten much better at bringing down the quarterback lately - 11 sacks in their previous three games compared to 17 in the other six - because Von Miller returned from his suspension.
Having said all of this, I do expect Kansas City to get into the 20s at the very least. This is a statement game for them, so Andy Reid will be utilizing every single trick play he has up his sleeve. Also, Jamaal Charles will be a huge factor as usual. The Broncos have surrendered 100-plus yards to their previous two opponents, as their linebackers have struggled recently. They'll also have issues tackling Charles, Dexter McCluster and Donnie Avery on Smith's trademark short attempts.
RECAP: I think this is the most difficult game to handicap this week. Manning's injury makes this matchup such an unknown. If Manning is completely healthy, Denver should be able to cover. If not, however, the Chiefs will hang the number and perhaps pull the upset. No one knows how Manning will perform, so I'd recommend staying away.
FINAL THOUGHTS: We still don't know anything about Peyton Manning's injury. What we do know is that the public likes the points. There's definite spread value with the Broncos, who should be -9.5, but only if Manning is healthy.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The sharps are on the Broncos. Do they know something about Manning's injury that the media doesn't?
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Percentage of money on Kansas City: 57% (57,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
History: Home Team has won 17 of the last 24 meetings.
Andy Reid is 11-4 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more since 2000.
Peyton Manning is 12-7 ATS on Sunday Night Football since 2004.
Andy Reid is 10-4 ATS after a bye.
Opening Line: Broncos -8.
Opening Total: 51.
Week 11 NFL Pick: Broncos 26, Chiefs 23
Chiefs +7.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Under 49.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Broncos 27, Chiefs 17
New England Patriots (7-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-3)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -1.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 10): Pick.
Monday, Nov. 18, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Patriots.
This week on ESPN, we're going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here's what it would sound like if those six clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to the city of Carolina, home of the Panthers, who battle the hated Patriots who cheated my Eagles out of a Super Bowl win. Guys, I hate Tom Brady with a passion, so I was happy when my son told me that some news broadcast named South Park reported that Brady has sucked this year because he was getting a laxative from Canada that made him poop too much. What a loser!
Emmitt: Ronnie, South Park happen to be a cartoon character who make fun of many people. The cartoon character also happen to be a animated as well, so what happen to the character on the show do not necessarily happens to them in their real lives!
Reilly: I think you're mistaken, Emmitt. My son was adamant that Brady was playing like s*** because he was s***ting his pants the whole time. It fits!
Tollefson: Kevin, are you sure about this? If so, perhaps I can tell his wife about this, so she'll leave him for me. There's no doubt she's tired of her marriage already, so I'm sure she'd love to come cook and clean naked for me.
Millen: Tolly, if you steal Tom's wife away, I'm hoping that I'll be able to have Tom all to myself. Using my new kielbasa sextant, which reads what percent USDA Man everyone is, Tom is 137.5-percent USDA Man. He used to be 211.4 percent, but his decline has dropped his percentage. Why is an 80-percent dip important, you ask?
Reilly: No. No one's asking. Just shut the f*** up, already.
Millen: I'll tell you why an 80-percent dip is important. The No. 1 Law of Kielbasa states that anyone can fit one kielbasa into their backside for every 25-percent USDA they are. So, what does that tell you about Brady's 80-percent dip?
Griese: Eighty percent is a B- in school.
Millen: Close, but no cigar, Bob. That means that Brady can now fit three less kielbasas in his backside than he did in his prime.
Davis: I think you mean three fewer kielbasas, Matt. Not three less kielbasas. Do you know when to refer to something as less or fewer, Matt? If you can count it, it's fewer, Matt. If it's an abstract idea, it's less, Matt. Let's look at some examples, Matt. Ricky has fewer or less money than Jamie, Matt? Is it fewer or less, Matt? It's less because there's no real amount, Matt. Let's look at another example, Matt. Ricky has three fewer or less apples than Jamie, Kevin. Is it fewer or less, Kevin? It's fewer because you can count the amount of apples, Kevin.
Reilly: Kevin? Why are you Kevining me when you were talking to Matt? Charles Davis, I'm convinced you were placed on this planet to merely annoy the hell out of me. If so, good job! Now, guys, can we get back to the issue at hand? Brady is crapping pants nonstop, and it's hilarious! Ha!
Edwards: BRADY'S NOT S***TING HIMSELF! NOT S***TING HIMSELF! NOT POOPING HIMSELF! NOT CRAPPING HIMSELF! NOT SOILING HIMSELF! NOT GOING NO. 2 HIMSELF! BRADY'S PANTS ARE CLEAN! BRADY'S PANTS ARE SHINY WHITE! BRADY'S PANTS ARE OH SO BRIGHT! NO S***! NO POOP! NO CRAP! NO SOIL! NO NO. 2! NO NO. 1 EITHER! OR NO NO. 3! WHAT'S NO. 3? EVERYONE KNOWS WHAT NO. 1 IS! EVERYONE KNOWS WHAT NO. 2 IS! WHAT'S NO. 3? WHAT'S NO. 3 IN THE BATHROOM? IS THERE A NO. 3? HAS ANYONE EVER GONE NO. 3? WHAT COULD NO. 3 BE? HERM'S GONNA TRY TO IMAGINE WHAT NO. 3'S GONNA BE! NO. 3 IS... umm... uhh...
Reilly: You're an idiot, Herm. And how do you know that Tom Brady's underpants are white? You're a f***ing sicko, Herm! We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!
CAROLINA OFFENSE: There are some misconceptions surrounding the two teams in this game. The first is that Cam Newton is playing very well right now. He's not. He was on fire earlier during Carolina's winning streak, but he tossed two careless interceptions against the dreadful Falcons and then posted a 16-of-32, 169-yard, no-touchdown, one-interception line at San Francisco last week. Newton nearly had a second pick that Navorro Bowman dropped on Carolina's sole touchdown drive of the game.
Six of Newton's 16 completions went to Steve Smith, who is Newton's only consistent receiver. However, Newton won't be able to look Smith's way very often in this matchup because Aqib Talib will smother him. Talib has been out of the lineup since putting the clamps on Jimmy Graham back in Week 6, but he's been practicing the past two weeks and figures to play Monday night. This is terrible news for the Panthers because Talib was one of the league's top corners since suffering a hip injury.
With Newton struggling and Smith covered, Carolina will have to do all of its damage on the ground. The Panthers should have some success in this regard; the Patriots haven't fared very well against ground attacks since losing Vince Wilfork, but perhaps Bill Belichick spent time fixing that aspect of his defense during the bye.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Another misconception is that the Patriots are too injured. In fact, Bill Simmons overreacted to this spread, calling it stupid because New England is "too banged up." The team is missing several defenders - Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Tommy Kelly - but the offense is completely intact, save for Sebastian Vollmer. However, Marcus Cannon stepped in at right tackle against the Steelers and did an admirable job. He'll have more trouble against Carolina's potent pass-rushers, but Tom Brady releases the ball so quickly that exterior pressure doesn't bother him as much. Most of Carolina's heat comes from the outside, so this is not a bad matchup for the Patriots.
Speaking of Brady, he was brutal for most of the season before finally snapping out of his funk just prior to the bye. With his troublesome hand seemingly healed, Brady torched Pittsburgh, going 23-of-33 for 432 yards and four touchdowns. Granted, there's a huge difference between the Steeler and Panther stop units, but it'll be extremely difficult to contain Brady now that he has his entire arsenal at his disposal. Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola are healthy, and don't forget about Shane Vereen. The explosive back hasn't seen the field since running circles around the Bills back in Week 1, but he's expected to suit up.
Vereen will do much of his damage as a pass-catcher coming out of the backfield - much like Danny Woodhead and Kevin Faulk - which will negate some of Carolina's pressure. Meanwhile, Stevan Ridley should find some holes against a defense that just allowed the 49ers to rush for about 4.5 yards per carry.
RECAP: The Patriots are at their best when everyone is slurping the other team. That's the case here, as every single person on TV is discussing how great the Panthers are. Both Brady and Belichick always get super pissed when this happens, and they always win.
There are two strong situations favoring New England. The first is that Brady is an underdog; he's 17-7 against the spread in that role since 2003. The second is that Brady and Belichick have had two weeks to prepare for the Panthers. Brady is 8-1 straight up following regular-season byes since 2003.
Everyone is talking about the Panthers. This is supposed to be their coronation. However, they're favored, so I feel like there is way too much pressure on them. They're a young team, and they've never been in this situation before. Meanwhile, I feel like the Patriots are about to get on a roll. Brady is healthy, and he has all of his weapons back for the first time all year.
As you can tell, I love New England here. This is a four-unit play for me.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I have some concerns that the Patriots are a consensus SuperContest pick - these selections have been brutal this year - but I just love getting Tom Brady as an underdog. This spread is now +3 everywhere.
The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.
Everyone is talking about how great the Panthers are, which has to anger Tom Brady.
The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.
People pounded the Patriots on Thursday.
Percentage of money on New England: 72% (90,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
Patriots are 17-8 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
Tom Brady is 154-51 as a starter (118-82 ATS).
Tom Brady is 17-7 ATS as an underdog since 2003.
Panthers are 35-47 ATS at home since 2003.
Opening Line: Panthers -2.5.
Opening Total: 44.
Week 11 NFL Pick: Patriots 23, Panthers 20
Patriots +3 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
Under 47 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Clete Blakeman & Panthers 24, Patriots 20
Week 11 NFL Picks - Early Games
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Teaser: Steelers +8.5, Patriots +8.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Moneyline Underdog: Redskins +175 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
Moneyline Underdog: Browns +220 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
NFL Picks - Jan. 16
2021 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 13
Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 11
2022 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 15
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 14
2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14
2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2020): 1-5 (-$1,430)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$575)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$855)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2020): 2-3-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2020): $0
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-2, 50.0% (-$135)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 132-123-6, 52.6% (+$3,280)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-42-3, 50.6% (-$2,650)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2020 Season Over-Under: 137-119-6, 53.5% ($0)
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$375
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,989-2,760-179, 52.0% (+$13,585)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 953-858-49 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,459-2,413-66 (50.5%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 44-29-1 (60.3%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
Bucs: 7-9 (2014-19: 44-45)
49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
Packers: 12-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
Rams: 5-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
Saints: 7-10 (2014-19: 49-50)
Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
Bills: 10-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
Browns: 7-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
Ravens: 5-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
Chiefs: 12-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
Divisional: 43-47 (2011-19: 405-394)
2x Game Edge: 63-60 (2011-19: 213-210)
2x Motivation Edge: 45-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
2x Spread Edge: 42-33 (2011-19: 61-55)
2x Vegas Edge: 25-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
2x Trend Edge: 18-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
Triple Edge: 5-4 (2011-19: 21-18)