NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,415)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)

NFL Picks (2018): 66-56-6 (+$795)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 28, 11:15 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games

Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Houston Texans (4-3)
Line: Texans by 7. Total: 45.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: No Line (Tannehill).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -7.
Thursday, Oct 25, 8:20 PM

The Game. Edge: Texans.

WEEK 7 RECAP: It was nice to rebound slightly after a frustrating Week 6. I finished 7-7, +$430. I made a couple of bad calls. Arizona was a terrible pick last Thursday night – those two units really should’ve gone on New England or Tampa – and I was too eager to find a bad spot this past week that I faded the Vikings irresponsibly. The one incorrect selection I will defend is Ravens -2.5. They were up by 10 in the fourth quarter, and we all know what happened at the end of regulation when Justin Tucker missed the first extra point of his career. I don’t know if the Ravens would’ve won in overtime, but they just needed a field goal in the extra session to cover.

My Week 8 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I was scouring the Internet for information on Deshaun Watson’s injury late last week when deciding on which teams to pick in the Supercontest. I found nothing beyond Houston Chronicle reporter John McClain saying that Watson told him that he felt fine. This was a lie, as Watson’s partially collapsed lung was in such danger that the Texans didn’t want him flying on a plane. Watson had to take an 11-hour bus ride from Houston to Jacksonville.

I’m lucky I didn’t see this, or I would’ve bet the Jaguars heavily. The Texans prevailed, but did so in spite of Watson, who struggled. He completed just half of his 24 passes for 139 yards. Given that he couldn’t fly, I’m surprised he even played, though Watson scrambled seven times and took some big shots from defenders. Still, the Texans struggled to keep drives alive – 10 of their 20 points came off turnovers – and I imagine this will be challenging for them against the Dolphins. Miami has a couple of excellent edge rushers in Robert Quinn and Cameron Wake who figure to expose Houston’s weak tackles. Watson will see lots of pressure and could be forced into some turnovers.

The Texans, however, won’t be shut out or anything. DeAndre Hopkins will still catch some passes, as the Dolphins won’t be able to stop him at all. That said, Keke Coutee, the emerging rookie slot receiver, won’t be available, so Watson’s options will be limited beyond Hopkins and Will Fuller.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins will have trouble scoring as well. If you think Coutee’s injury is bad for the Texans, consider that the Dolphins will be missing two of their top three receivers. Albert Wilson, who has been the team’s top play-maker in recent weeks, might be out for the year with a hip injury. Kenny Stills will also miss this game. Danny Amendola is the lone survivor, and yet he’s banged up as well. The Dolphins will reluctantly have to use DeVante Parker, who is a total sloth.

Making matters worse for Miami, the Texans figure to dominate the trenches. The Dolphins can’t protect in the interior, which bodes poorly versus J.J. Watt. Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus, who finally came alive last week, should be able to win their matchups as well. This will force Brock Osweiler into some poor throws and turnovers. Osweiler played well last week, but was battling one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Things will be much worse come Thursday.

The Dolphins can forget about running the ball either. Houston is stellar at stopping ground attacks, and Miami is wasting too many downs giving the ball to Frank Gore.

RECAP: Thursday games are usually wretched, and after last week’s Cardinals disaster, I don’t want to bet on this game. This spread is a touch too high, so there’s some value with the Dolphins, but I don’t think I’m going to take it.

The issue is that Miami has just three days off to prepare a game plan featuring a mostly new receiving corps. That will prove to be difficult, and I imagine Osweiler might self-destruct as a result. Besides, this is Osweiler’s toughest matchup to date, and he’s not going to keep playing well. He’ll revert to the turnover machine we know and love.

Having said that, I don’t want to bet the Texans either. If Watson were 100 percent, I’d consider doing so, but if he’s not healthy enough to ride on a plane, I don’t think I want to bet money on him, especially with barely any time to heal. Having a hobbled Watson to win by at least eight points is a tough ask.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Don’t count on a bet from me on this game. I’m tired of this crappy Thursday night games. The NFL really needs to do something about this, such as pitting teams coming off byes against each other.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As promised, I’m not betting this game. However, something Jay Glazer said was interesting. He noted that the Texans were more optimistic about Deshaun Watson’s health. I’d be betting Watson if he were 100 percent, so if you really want to wager on this contest, I’d look toward Houston for a small play. The best number is 7 -115 at Bookmaker. I’m not going to bet this; I have one selection on my NBA Picks page instead.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 59% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Underdog is 82-56 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 138 games.

Opening Line: Texans -7.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Texans 23, Dolphins 13
Texans -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 42, Dolphins 23

Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) at London Jaguars (3-4)
Line: Eagles by 3.5. Total: 42.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Oct 28, 9:30 AM

The Game. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have three overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I was praying for the Jaguars to announce that Cody Kessler would be the starting quarterback. I know I’ve been a prominent Blake Bortles hater over the years, but Kessler is so much worse. Bortles can at least scramble and make NFL-caliber throws with his big arm. Kessler can’t do anything but check down annd hurl helpless floaters out of bounds. Had Jacksonville opted to go with Kessler, the Eagles would’ve been a huge play for me.

But with Bortles? Believe it or not, it’s a different story. Call me crazy, but I didn’t think Bortles was awful last week. He wasn’t good by any means, but I don’t think he deserved to get benched. Bortles was 6-of-12 for 61 yards and two lost fumbles against Houston. However, two incompletions were dropped, and his first fumble was an effort play where he was trying to reach for a first down. Bortles wasn’t incompetent, and he was battling a tough defense. The Eagles, despite their stellar front seven, have struggled in the secondary. They’ve allowed big passing performances all year, and I don’t think Bortles will be immune from that. He’s played well in London in the past, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he had his best output since torching the Patriots in Week 2.

That said, there are problems. The Jaguars can’t run the ball without Leonard Fournette, and I don’t think Carlos Hyde will make much of a difference, especially against Philadelphia’s great front. The Eagles can also exploit Jacksonville’s big problem at left tackle, as the team is using a third-string blind-side protector.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Carson Wentz had a terrific passing performance against the Panthers, going 30-of-37 for 310 yards and two touchdowns. He completed 15 passes in a row at one point. However, Wentz still isn’t 100 percent, as he’s not scrambling nearly as much as he did last year. It’ll be interesting to see when he begins running around again, as he’ll be lethal once more when that occurs. In the meantime, Wentz will have to beat the opposition aerially, which might be a problem in this matchup.

Wentz abused Carolina’s secondary, but the Jaguars are much better against the pass. Jalen Ramsey should be able to smother Alshon Jeffery, while Jacksonville’s excellent linebackers figure to slow down Zach Ertz. The Jaguars’ defensive front will also be able to pressure Wentz heavily and shut down the run as well. Philadelphia’s offensive line hasn’t been as good this year, so Jacksonville figures to win in the trenches.

It’s not all grim for the Eagles, as the Jaguars have one major liability on the defensive side of the ball. Their slot corner, D.J. Hayden, has been out for a while, so the Jaguars have been weak at that position, as evidenced by Cole Beasley’s huge performance two weeks ago. Perhaps Nelson Agholor will be able to duplicate his output.

RECAP: The advance spread on this game was pick ’em, which seemed more reasonable because this is effectively a home game for the Jaguars. They’ve played well in London over the years, and they have plenty of experience traveling across the Atlantic, as it’s something they do every year. This is Philadelphia’s first time doing this. Yet, thanks to last week’s loss to the Texans, this spread has ballooned to Philadelphia -3.

I’ve gone against the Eagles all but twice since the 2018 opener – Week 5 vs. Minnesota, Week 6 at New York being the outliers – because I sensed a major level of complacency from the team in the preseason. That has festered throughout the regular season, and I don’t know why it would suddenly dissipate. The Eagles are favored to win over a struggling opponent, and they’re getting a large portion of the public handle. Why would they suddenly play up to their ability, especially when the quarterback isn’t 100 percent?

The Jaguars are the more desperate squad, and I believe their ability to play better in London will be huge in deciding this game. Given that we also have tremendous line value with them, I’m going to wager three units on the “home team.”

THURSDAY THOUGHTS/LOCKED IN: People have told me that I’m crazy for betting on the Jaguars, which only really strengthens my belief that Jacksonville is the right side. I was about to write that I was going to write that I was going to wait for a +3.5 to appear at -110 or better, but I checked the sportsbooks, and BetUS has +3.5 -105 available. I’m going to lock this in for three units.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jaguars cornerback A.J. Bouye will be out, which would hurt Jacksonville if the Eagles had a dynamic second receiver. Jalen Ramsey will be on the field to defend Alshon Jeffery, so the Jaguars should be fine defensively. I still like the Jaguars, which is a good thing because I already locked them in!

LATE SATURDAY NOTE: I’m posting an update for the arrest of some Jaguar players. Barry Church, Ronnie Harrison, D.J. Hayden and some scrub were arrested for not paying a $40,000 bar tab. I don’t know what’s worse, not paying what was owed; accumulating a large tab like that; or being out the night before the game. Either way, it’s not a good look for these idiots, and I wish I could drop this pick to zero units. Unfortunately, I’ve already locked this in. Maybe I’m overreacting, but this is not something I wanted to hear 11 hours prior to kickoff. Should be a fun morning /s.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I woke up today with the realization that I didn’t want to hedge my three-unit bet on the Jaguars. I’ve had success in the stock market selling on bad news, and what we learned last night was obviously just that. Then, I turned on NFL Network to hear that the situation isn’t as bad as it was initially made out to be. I’m more confident in my Jacksonville selection now. Even better, Pinnacle, the sharpest book out there, is listing this spread at -3.5, while most books have moved to -4. Pinnacle is welcoming money on the Eagles, which is good news for Jaguar bettors.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Jaguars know how to play well in London, while the Eagles are going through the motions of a post-Super Bowl hangover.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

“The Jaguars suck, I want to bet against them!”

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 66% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Carson Wentz is 20-14 SU, 19-15 ATS as a starter.

Jaguars are 38-70 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 12-33 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Jaguars 20, Eagles 17
Jaguars +3.5 -105 (3 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$315
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 24, Jaguars 18

Cleveland Browns (2-4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2-1)
Line: Steelers by 7.5. Total: 48.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -6.
Sunday, Oct 28, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot.

The highest-bet sides were 43-40-4 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets last week:

Patriots -3

Chargers -6.5

Chiefs -6

Vikings -3

Falcons -4

Vegas was looking to have a horrible week until the Monday night miracle, when the Giants scored a back-door touchdown with five seconds remaining and then didn’t even attempt an onside kick. I guess Pat “Go for Two” Shurmur’s math told him not to do an onside kick in that moment.

The highest-bet teams were 3-2 in Week 7. The overall record of heavily bet teams is now 12-21-3. Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Eagles -3

Patriots -14

Colts -3

Redskins -1

Bears -7

Nothing here surprises me, as the public will always bet road favorites and large home favorites with reckless abandon.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Ben Roethlisberger has put together some strong performances this year, but his first matchup at Cleveland didn’t qualify as such. Roethlisberger completed a season-low 56.1 percent of his passes and committed five turnovers. He single-handedly kept the Browns in the game, as Tyrod Taylor struggled until Joe Haden was knocked out with an injury.

I don’t think this was an accident. The Browns have been excellent versus passing attacks this year. A major factor is star rookie cornerback Denzel Ward, who should be able to do a good job on Antonio Brown, who was limited until late in the first meeting. Another reason is the defensive front, which put lots of pressure on Roethlisberger. Myles Garrett made Roethlisberger’s life miserable, recording two sacks. I don’t see why things would be different in that regard this time.

That said, I don’t expect the Steelers to have problems scoring, as they have three major edges on this side of the ball. The first is JuJu Smith-Schuster versus the other cornerbacks. The second is James Conner, as Cleveland can’t defend outside tosses, as evidenced by what occurred against the Chargers two weeks ago. The third is Vance McDonald and the other tight ends against the linebackers. The Browns have a stud at the position in Joe Schobert, but he’s dealing with a hamstring injury. He was announced as “week to week” eight days ago, so it remains to be seen if he can suit up. If not, the Browns’ defense will once again be much worse than usual.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Steelers will score, especially given that they’re at home, so Cleveland will have to keep up with them. The Browns, however, have had issues putting up points in recent weeks. Baker Mayfield’s ankle injury was to blame two weeks ago, but Mayfield failed to take advantage of a very easy matchup against the Buccaneers’ poor defense. Somehow, his receivers were so bad that they couldn’t even get open against Tampa’s anemic secondary.

The Steelers can’t cover either, outside of Haden. However, aside from Jarvis Landry out of the slot, the Browns don’t have talented enough receivers to get open, even against the Steelers. Call me crazy, but I just don’t see Antonio Callaway, Rashard Higgins and Damion Ratley doing much. I do, however, think that David Njoku can take advantage of Pittsburgh’s poor linebacking corps. Njoku had a big game against the Buccaneers, and he should continue that strong play in this matchup.

I’d like to see the Browns utilize Duke Johnson more as well. Carlos Hyde is gone, which is a positive, as Nick Chubb has been more effective this year, but because the Steelers stop the run well, Johnson has a better matchup as a receiver out of the backfield. Pittsburgh is not good against pass-catching running backs, so we’ll see if Johnson’s usage continues to be limited.

RECAP: I wish Schobert were playing in this game. I know he’s just “one guy,” but the Browns need all hands on deck to give themselves a good chance of covering this large number, and Schobert, the top linebacker on the team, is a pretty significant hand.

That said, even if Schobert doesn’t suit up, I still like the Browns enough to wager on them. First of all, this spread is too high. I made it Pittsburgh -6, which was just short of the advance spread of -7. Now, the Steelers are favored by eight. Six and seven are tier-two key numbers, so we’re getting good line value with Cleveland.

Second, I don’t think the Steelers will be focused for this game. They are a team that is often aloof as big favorites, and they’ll be looking ahead to next week’s revenge matchup against the Ravens.

Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t good, so I think the Browns will have a decent chance of getting a back-door cover if they need it. However, given the Steelers’ anticipated low energy level, that may not even be a factor.

This is going to be a two-unit play for me at the moment, but if Schobert is clear to play, I may double my wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It doesn’t look like Joe Schobert is going to play, unfortunately. I’m likely to stay on the Browns for two units, but we’ll see.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Browns are going to be down Joe Schobert as well as possibly two starting defensive backs. E.J. Gaines is out, while Damarious Randall barely practiced all week. I still like the Browns for a small play, however, as I expect the Steelers to be flat with the Ravens coming up next week. With the sharps coming in on the Browns, I’m going to lock in +7.5 -105 at BetUS/Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Damarious Randall is active, but may not be 100 percent. Still, having as many talented defensive backs as possible against the Steelers is good news.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Steelers are big favorites, and they have to battle the Ravens in a revenge game next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

No surprise that the public is betting the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 67% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 32 of the last 36 meetings excluding a 2018 tie.

Hue Jackson is 2-6 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Ben Roethlisberger is 48-30 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Opening Line: Steelers -7.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 46 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Browns 21
Browns +7.5 -105 (2 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$210
Under 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 33, Browns 18

Denver Broncos (3-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-1)
Line: Chiefs by 9.5. Total: 53.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -11.5.
Sunday, Oct 28, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. A few weeks ago, someone named Lester Biggs sent me hate mail and joked about child abuse in the process. I called him out for it, and he disappeared. Well, Lester crawled out of his hole and sent me more hate mail:

What a scumbag. Who jokes about both child abuse and suicide? Like really, how miserable is Lester’s life that he has to make light of these things? Maybe his life is miserable because he sucks at talking football to his imaginary friends, given he says things like the 49ers having a high-powered offense.

Here’s another real e-mail:

Why is it that all hate mailers are scumbags who either are racist or make light of suicide and child abuse? I mean, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that these low-lifes are so miserable.

Anyway, here are a couple more…

Not only does this guy have no sense of humor, he’s also factually incorrect, as I have the Brady Haircuts and spam responses on separate pages.

One more:

Does that GreenAirBalloon guy really think I’m the girl with the cleavage in my avatar? Holy hell, that’s not very smart.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes had his worst performance of the season at Denver, at least through three quarters. He was down by 10 entering the final frame, but was able to lead a furious charge on two possessions. Still, Mahomes had his worst YPA of the year (6.8) and managed to complete “just” 62.2 percent of his passes. Mahomes had trouble with all the noise in Mile High, and it didn’t help that his receivers dropped several passes. It looked like a sure loss until Mahomes came up big in the clutch.

This game will go much differently. Denver’s defense isn’t nearly as potent when it doesn’t get to feast off the incredible home crowd. If you want numbers to back up that assertion, the Broncos surrender 5.7 more points per game on the road under this coaching regime, which makes sense, given that defensive players thrive on emotion.

The Broncos’ stop unit, in particular, needs that emotional charge because they have several liabilities. They struggle to stop the run – they surrendered 500 total rushing yards in the two weeks prior to the Arizona game – and the linebackers can’t cover tight ends or pass-catching running backs. Meanwhile, aside from Chris Harris, the secondary has struggled this year. Harris should do a good job on Tyreek Hill again, but Mahomes will be able to attack the rest of the Broncos’ defense with Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos could’ve put the Chiefs away in the first meeting had Case Keenum hit an open Demaryius Thomas at the end for a touchdown at the end of regulation, but Keenum missed him. This was just one of many examples of Keenum struggling in the red zone this year. He’s moved the chains well in between the 20s at times, but he’s been sloppy deep in opposing territory. He’ll need to score sevens instead of threes to keep up with the Chiefs, and I don’t think he’ll be able to do that.

Aside from a site change, the primary reason I don’t believe the Broncos will be able to match their 23-point output from the Week 4 clash is the injury to left guard Ronald Leary. The former Cowboy was one of Denver’s top blockers. He’s out, so the less-talented Max Garcia will have issues blocking Kansas City’s best defensive lineman, Chris Jones. Meanwhile, the Broncos also have poor play from their tackles, giving Justin Houston and Dee Ford a major edge. It remains to be seen if Houston will play, but Ford will dominate regardless.

With less time in the pocket, Keenum will want to throw the ball often to Emmanuel Sanders, as he’s done all year. Sanders is on pace to catch 105 passes, to no surprise, but one of his worst outputs of the year came against the Chiefs. Kansas City doesn’t have a good secondary, to put it nicely, but its slot corner Kendall Fuller is a good player. He’ll be able to limit Sanders once again, which will give Denver some major problems. The Broncos will hit big plays with Phillip Lindsay and Demaryius Thomas on some occasions, but as mentioned earlier, I expect them to struggle in the red zone.

RECAP: Denver’s road ineptitude didn’t affect them in Arizona, as the Cardinals, a miserable team with barely any time to prepare, didn’t stand a chance. The Broncos won similarly in Indianapolis versus Jacoby Brissett last year on a Thursday night.

However, if you look at the Broncos’ track record on the road with Vance Joseph, it’s not pretty otherwise. Excluding those two Thursday games versus miserable competition, Denver is 0-9 straight up and against the spread on the road, losing by an average margin of 30.1 to 13.6. Only one of their games has been decided by single digits (21-14 loss at Oakland.) Of the seven opponents last year, only two made the playoffs, so it’s not like they even had a tough road schedule. The Bills, Raiders, Dolphins and Redskins were not difficult opponents, yet Denver lost by at least seven in each game!

The Chiefs, conversely, certainly qualify as a difficult foe. Mahomes is playing out of his mind right now, and I believe he’ll have so much more success against the Broncos this time around.

I’m planning to bet three units on the Chiefs. Ten seems like a high number, but I don’t think it’s high enough. Denver’s misleading victory over the Cardinals, aided by two defensive touchdowns, has fooled the public and kept this spread deflated. Let’s take advantage of that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS/LOCKED IN: Here’s another spread I’ll lock in. Kansas City -9.5 -110 is available at 5Dimes. The sharps haven’t come in on either side yet, so there’s a chance this line rises at some point during the weekend. It could fall as well, but I think -9.5 -110 is a good number.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Broncos are banged up. They’re down two offensive linemen, while Ambassador Von Miller was limited in practice all week with an ankle. Perhaps Miller will be dominant, but we’ve seen Khalil Mack struggle through an injury in recent weeks. If Miller isn’t 100 percent, the Broncos don’t stand a chance.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Von Miller is active, but may not be 100 percent. There’s been some sharp money coming in on the Broncos this morning, but I still like the Chiefs quite a bit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

I’m surprised there’s not more action on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 65% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Chiefs have won the last 6 meetings.

Opening Line: Chiefs -9.5.

Opening Total: 56.

Weather: Sunny, 59 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Chiefs 41, Broncos 17
Chiefs -9.5 (3 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$330
Over 53 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Chiefs 30, Broncos 23

New York Jets (3-4) at Chicago Bears (3-3)
Line: Bears by 10. Total: 45.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bears -7.5.
Sunday, Oct 28, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Bears.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears can be considered the Jaguars of the NFC. They have a terrific roster, but their quarterback is weighing them down. Like Blake Bortles, Mitchell Trubisky scrambles well, but struggles with accuracy when throwing downfield. Bortles simply doesn’t care. I don’t know if that’s true with Trubisky or not, but what I do know is that his footwork sucks. Constantly throwing off his back foot, Trubisky is very inconsistent with his accuracy, which resulted in a 52-percent completion rate versus New England last week.

Trubisky, however, has thrived in easier matchups. He torched the Buccaneers, for instance. The Jets don’t have nearly as bad of a secondary as Tampa does when everyone’s healthy, but that’s not the case at the moment. The Jets were very banged up in their defensive backfield last week, and if those same players are out again, Trubisky could have one of his better performances as a result. It’ll help that he won’t have Bill Belichick throwing complex schemes at him.

Meanwhile, I don’t expect the Bears to run the ball very well, as the Jets have a strong defensive line and linebacking corps. However, Latavius Murray was able to break free for two long plays, as one of the reserve Jet safeties took a bad angle on a big gain. That could happen again if Marcus Maye doesn’t return to the lineup, as Tarik Cohen can surely take advantage of such a liability.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of inaccurate quarterbacks, what in the world happened to Sam Darnold last week? His passes were all over the place. Perhaps it was the wind, but Darnold had issues connecting on routine, short tosses.

The Vikings were able to place heavy pressure on Darnold, which didn’t help. The Bears have the personnel to do this on paper, but their ability to generate a consistent pass rush depends on Khalil Mack’s health. Mack was having a Defensive Player of the Year presence to start the season, but has slowed down the past couple of weeks because of a lingering ankle injury. Chicago’s defense has understandably regressed with Mack being hurt. If Mack isn’t 100 percent, Darnold will certainly have more time in the pocket, but it may not matter because his receivers could have trouble winning against Chicago’s secondary.

Darnold loves throwing to the slot, but that’ll be a problem because Bryce Callahan locks down that position very well. Thus, Darnold will have to lean on the running game, which could actually work, as Chicago has surrendered some big rushing performances recently. Frank Gore ran down their throat, while Sony Michel looked like he was going to have a huge afternoon before suffering a gruesome knee injury.

RECAP: The advance spread on this game was Chicago -5.5. This line has jumped up a point-and-a-half because the Jets were blown out against the Vikings, but that 37-17 result wasn’t indicative of what truly happened. Sure, Darnold’s inaccuracy played a factor, but there were so many small things in that game that could’ve completely changed that result and made it a closer margin, and it was a 10-7 score in the third quarter anyway before the game got away from the Jets. This line is an overreaction to people just looking at a score and not really watching the game.

I like the Jets to cover this big number, especially if they get some of their defensive backs returning from injury. Mack isn’t 100 percent, and I don’t trust Trubisky to cover a large spread like this.

I’m going to hold off betting on this game for now. I want to see the injury report concerning the Jets’ defensive backs, and I also would want +7.5 before I feel more comfortable wagering on the visitor.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has moved up to +7.5. I’m thinking about betting the Jets, but like I said before, I want to see if their injury report is favorable for them because they have lots of health problems in the secondary.

SATURDAY NOTES: I said I’d bet the Jets if the injury report looked favorable. It doesn’t, unfortunately. Not only could the Jets be without several defensive backs, but it doesn’t sound as though Robby Anderson will play. I’d consider switching my pick to the Bears, but I’ve gotten burned too many times, so I’ll leave this as zero on New York. It’s worth noting that the sharps have been betting Chicago, and the line is now -10 (-120) in some books.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bears won’t have Khalil Mack or Allen Robinson. As a result, the spread has dropped to +8/+8.5, though +10 can be bought up at -125 at BetUS. I’m still very torn on this game and wouldn’t touch it. I am, however, going to switch to the under, as there’s going to be 18-mph winds.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

The Bears just nearly defeated the Patriots, so of course they’ll clobber the Jets.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 65% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Jets are 14-10 ATS as underdogs of 7+ since 2010.

Opening Line: Bears -6.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Cloudy, 49 degrees. Mild wind, 18 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Bears 20, Jets 13
Jets +10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 24, Jets 10

Washington Redskins (4-2) at New York Giants (1-6)
Line: Redskins by 1.5. Total: 44.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Giants -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -2.
Sunday, Oct 28, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I hate to harp on this, but these 9:30 a.m. London games suck. Actually, I secretly do love to harp on this, so I’m just going to keep on doing it.

Melvin Gordon fantasy owners received some bad news Saturday evening when it was announced that Gordon was downgraded to questionable with a hamstring. Thus, fantasy players with Gordon on their team had to wake up prior to the Chargers-Titans game. Fantasy players on the West Coast would have to be up at 6 a.m. to see the final injury report, and those who didn’t suffered because of it!

This sort of scheduling is irresponsible of the NFL. I had to be up for this game because it’s my job, but if I were just an average fantasy player living on the West Coast, and I didn’t wake up on time to take Gordon out of the lineup, I’d feel so incredibly frustrated by this that I’d consider just quitting fantasy football. Seriously. I can’t understand why the NFL would do this. There’s no benefit to scheduling games at 9:30 in the morning, and there’s nothing wrong with putting the London games on at 1 p.m. Eastern, which is 6 p.m. over there. I mean, what sounds more reasonable to you, a 6 p.m. game for the people in England, or a 6 a.m. game for those on the West Coast?

I just can’t believe that these early games keep getting scheduled each year. I’ve ranted on and on about Roger Goodell’s incompetence, so the fact that he doesn’t understand that this is a failed experiment isn’t surprising in the slightest.

2. Speaking of stupid NFL decisions, everyone knew that moving a team to Los Angeles was a bad idea. And yet, the league moved two teams to a city that doesn’t care about professional football. The Rams are doing poorly in Los Angeles, yet that doesn’t even compare to what’s happening with the Chargers, who can’t fill a freaking soccer stadium.

To no surprise, there was a report published recently that the NFL owners are worried about the Chargers’ viability in Los Angeles. No. F***ing. Way. I mean, it’s like they thought this would actually work after the Rams and Raiders previously failed there. The Chargers should’ve never moved to Los Angeles. There’s a reason I always refer to them as the San Angeles Chargers. E-mailer Kevin K. suggested the “Los Diego Chargers,” which is a good one, but San Angeles is a reference to Demolition Man, which is one of the best movies ever made.

At any rate, if the NFL owners didn’t want to be humiliated, they’d move the Chargers right away, but that would be an admission of error. However, sometimes it’s better to admit that you were wrong.

I, however, would not move the Chargers back to San Diego. They really struggled there as well. I’d consider moving them to a city that would actually support them like Portland, San Antonio, Oklahoma City or Salt Lake City. I think that makes so much sense, as all four of those cities are hungry for an NFL team and would really embrace the Chargers.

3. Staying on the theme of dumb NFL decisions, I think it was clearer than ever during the Broncos-Cardinals game that the Thursday Night Football format needs to change. These past few Thursday night affairs have been disgusting blowouts, and that’s because horrible teams have a tough time preparing for a game on just three days of rest. They can’t game plan enough to overcome their own incompetence. As a result, the Colts, Giants and Cardinals – all miserable teams – were blown out.

Of course, NFL teams should not be playing on three days of rest, no matter how good they are. The league claims that it cares about players’ safety, yet it puts them in harm’s way each Thursday night.

There’s a solution to all of this, and that would be to just have Thursday night games between teams coming off byes. Like this past week, with the Saints and Lions coming off a bye, they could’ve battled each other. That would’ve been a great game!

This would mean that there wouldn’t be any Thursday night games in Weeks 2-4, but that’s fine. We don’t need Thursday night contests every week, as less can sometimes be more. Meanwhile, by the time December rolls around, and teams no longer have byes again, the NFL can just schedule the program “Thursday Night Football” for Saturday night.

This is a win-win-win for all parties. The fans get better games, as rested teams will be more prepared. The players won’t be as prone to injury in this sort of setup. And the owners could use this change to show the courts that they care about player safety in the event that they get dealt more lawsuits from retired players.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It took me a while to get to this pick because of the Eli Apple trade. You can read my thoughts on it on the NFL Trade Grades page. As for Apple’s absence concerning this game, I don’t think it matters very much. Alex Smith is very unlike Matt Ryan in that he doesn’t attack downfield very often, so a slight downgrade at cornerback isn’t going to hurt the Giants, especially given the Redskins’ injury woes at receiver.

Speaking of the injuries, it’ll be nice if Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson could finally return to action. There might be some hope for Thompson, who was a game-time decision last week. He and Jordan Reed have terrific matchups against the New York linebackers. The Giants haven’t been able to cover tight ends or pass-catching running backs for a long time, and I don’t expect things to suddenly change.

The Giants won’t have success defending Thompson aerially, but they’ll at least be able to limit Adrian Peterson on the ground. Their defensive line is stacked with run-stuffing talent. Snacks Harrison and B.J. Hill did a great job of limiting Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith on Monday night, and I think they’ll be able to handle Peterson despite the future Hall of Famer looking terrific versus Dallas.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While the Giants figure to win in the trenches when the Redskins have the ball, the same came be said when New York’s scoring unit is on the field. Washington’s defensive line is great, as the “Bama Boys” and Matt Ioannidis will be able to bully around New York’s weak interior. Meanwhile, Ryan Kerrigan continues to be an explosive edge rusher, and he has a dream matchup against the Giants’ incompetent right tackle.

Eli Manning will see lots of pressure once again, so that’ll disrupt some drives. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley won’t get going, at least not on the ground. He might break a long run because he’s a special player, but we just saw the Redskins put the clamps on Ezekiel Elliott.

While the defensive line is the best part on Washington’s defense, the rest of the stop unit is strong as well. Nickel corner Fabian Moreau did a great job on Cole Beasley last week, and he should have similar success against Sterling Shepard. The linebackers are playing well, so they’ll contain Evan Engram, who was not on the same page with Eli Manning on Monday night. Stopping Odell Beckham Jr. will be a problem, even with Josh Norman on him. Norman might be able to slow down Beckham a bit, but Norman isn’t playing especially well this year.

RECAP: This is a difficult game to handicap. The Redskins have some real advantages on the field, and they’re clearly the better team. That much is clear. However, they’re only favored by one, making this look like one of the easiest bets in the world.

Except, it’s not. Football is an emotional game, and the Redskins just gave it their all against arch-rival Dallas. They saw the Giants struggle on Monday night. This is a low-energy game for Washington. Meanwhile, the Giants are desperate for a win, and they’ll look to bounce back from a defeat on national TV.

This spread is basically on point. I made it Washington -2, so I don’t think this is the no-brainer selection the public is making it out to be. If I thought the Redskins would have more energy for this game, I’d pick them, but I think I’m going to take the Giants for a non-wager in this situation.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Giants, while 84 percent of the money is on the Redskins. Vegas doesn’t give money away for free, so be careful betting Washington. This is a low-energy game for the Redskins, and they could easily get tripped up, much like the Patriots did at Jacksonville/Detroit or the Ravens did at Cleveland.

SATURDAY NOTES: It looks like Chris Thompson will play for the Redskins, which is huge. However, Washington will likely be down a talented cornerback in Quinton Dunbar, who didn’t practice all week. That’ll hurt against the Giants’ explosive play-makers. I still like New York for a non-wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chris Thompson will be on the field, but the secondary is banged up, which will allow the Giants to score. This seems like a coin-flip game to me where either team could win. I wouldn’t bet on this game, and the sharps aren’t doing that either.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

The Redskins will have low energy following a win over Dallas.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Who wants to bet the Giants at +1?

Percentage of money on Washington: 78% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 17 of the last 24 meetings.

Opening Line: Redskins -1.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Sunny, 54 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Giants 20, Redskins 17
Giants +1.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 20, Giants 13

Seattle Seahawks (3-3) at Detroit Lions (3-3)
Line: Lions by 3. Total: 48.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -3.
Sunday, Oct 28, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Lions.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. If you’ve been living under a rock and somehow missed it, Nick Bosa declared for the 2019 NFL Draft last week. I graded Bosa’s decision in my 2019 NFL Draft Underclassmen page.

Bosa doing this sparked a crazy debate on Twitter. Former NFL personnel man Greg Gabriel got into a fight with a sports writer of some sort, who whined about how Bosa wouldn’t have needed to do that had he and other athletes been paid. The whole thread was deleted, so I can’t show you what exactly was said, but Gabriel responded with something like, “They are paid. They get $200,000 worth of a college education for free.”

Gabriel is absolutely right. Saying that college athletes on scholarship aren’t paid is insulting. College is f***ing expensive. People who graduate from school and don’t earn a very high-paying job right away go into debt with student loans. How do you think they’d feel if they were given a free ride? Going to college for free is a blessing, and no one should ignore this when discussing that college athletes aren’t paid.

However, I think the NCAA is in the wrong as well. I believe that college athletes should be able to pursue their own endorsements without repercussions. For instance, if Adidas, for example, recognized Bosa as a great athlete as a freshman, they should’ve been able to give him money to advertise for them. Any local business, such as a car dealership, should be able to pay college students to make local commercials and whatnot. I think this is totally fair, and I don’t see why the schools should have any business in what the athletes can earn for themselves. I feel like allowing this is a win-win for everyone, and I’m sure both Gabriel and the crying writer would agree.

2. Speaking of college football finances, Greg McElroy had this to say as a color analyst of one of his games:

“Vanderbilt has to invest lots of money into their college football program. Northwestern just built a $200 million facility. Vanderbilt has to do that.”

Oh, OK, let’s just get Vanderbilt to find $200 million laying around and build a new facility. That sounds so easy.

I don’t understand McElroy’s thought process. Does he think that throwing money at something will just solve all of the school’s problems regarding its football program? I mean, it can’t hurt the program, but what if Vanderbilt doesn’t believe that bolstering the football team is a priority? Why must they throw $200 million at the program?

And besides, it’s not like Northwestern’s spending has done anything! The Wildcats have one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Clayton Thorson, yet they are barely competitive because most of their other players suck. I can’t imagine Vanderbilt looking at that team and thinking, “Oh boy, let’s spend $200 million like Greg McElroy said we should so we can be as good as Northwestern!”

3. If you don’t follow the worst teams in the Big Ten, you may have missed that a quarterback won the conference’s Defensive Player of the Week for the first time in its history. That’s right. A quarterback was the best defensive player in the entire Big Ten one recent week.

How is this possible, you ask? Why don’t you check it out:

Yes, those are real stats. This Artur Sitkowski person went 2-of-16 for eight yards and four interceptions.

This is unreal. How is it even possible to throw for double the number of yards as interceptions? How can a quarterback toss double the number of picks as completions?

Well, I guess Rutgers deserves this. When they scanned the stands to find their quarterback, perhaps they shouldn’t have picked the drunkest guy in the bleachers.

DETROIT OFFENSE: From Kevin Smith, to Jahvid Best, to Mikel Leshoure, to Ameer Abdullah, the Lions have gone through numerous, highly drafted running backs who always managed to disappoint. That streak has finally ended, apparently, as Detroit seems to have a real winner in Kerryon Johnson. This was apparent in the preseason, yet the coaching staff refused to give him more touches than ancient plodder LeGarrette Blount. That changed because of self-evaluation during the bye week, apparently, as Johnson had nearly double the amount of carries that Blount did against the Dolphins.

It’ll be difficult to run on the Seahawks because Bobby Wagner is one of the top linebackers in the NFL, but Johnson’s mere presence in the backfield should help Detroit’s passing attack, as he’ll serve as a distraction. The Lions already had an advantage here, but every edge helps. The Legion of Boom-less Seahawks have a struggling secondary that will be abused by Matthew Stafford’s three dynamic wideouts. Seattle hasn’t battled a receiving corps like the Lions possess since losing Earl Thomas, and I’m not including the Rams in Week 5 because both Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp were concussed in the opening half.

Things will get ugly for the Seahawks’ secondary, so their defensive front must heavily pressure Stafford. They were able to put tons of heat on Derek Carr in their London game prior to the bye, but Oakland had an extremely banged-up offensive line. Detroit’s front is healthy, so Stafford won’t be harassed nearly as much as Carr was.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks don’t have the dynamic talent the Lions possess on this side of the ball. Save for Russell Wilson, of course. You can never count out the Seahawks with Wilson, especially in easy matchups like this one.

The Lions are 3-3 right now, but they’ve won in spite of their horrific defense. They have just one viable cornerback in Darius Slay, and their linebacking corps is an abomination. The Seahawks may not have the tight ends or the pass-catching running backs to exploit this major liability, but I imagine that Wilson’s timely scrambles will keep the chains moving.

Detroit will have to pressure Wilson to prevent him from hitting Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett with long bombs, and that could happen if Ezekiel Ansah returns from injury. Ansah’s been out since Week 1, but it sounded like he was close to playing this past Sunday, as he practiced on a limited basis leading up to the Miami game. Perhaps that means Ansah will play in this contest. His return will be a huge boon for Detroit’s chances in this game, especially given the state of Seattle’s poor offensive line.

RECAP: I think the spread on this game is set perfectly. The most likely result of this game is Detroit winning by three. I had the Lions projected at -3, and that’s exactly what the line is.

The tie-breaker here for me is the “Kenny Special,” which, if you haven’t listened to the WF Podcast, is when a West Coast team plays a 1 p.m. game on the East Coast. Why the NFL didn’t schedule this game to start at 4 p.m., I have no idea, but it’s a disadvantage to the Seahawks, who have performed poorly in this situation throughout the years, save for 2013, when they won the Super Bowl. That was an amazing team that was able to overcome a difficult situation like this. This version of the Seahawks is most definitely not an “amazing team.”

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Seahawks have become a public dog. I think they’re a bit overrated because of the Oakland game, while the Lions have improved with Snacks Harrison joining the team. I might bet a unit on Detroit.

SATURDAY NOTES: The public dragged this line down to +2.5 early on Friday, and then the sharps hopped on the Lions at -2.5. I’m still considering a late bet on Detroit, although K.J. Wright returning for the Seahawks hurts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve decided not to bet this game. Ziggy Ansah won’t play, so the Lions won’t be able to fully take advantage of the Seahawks’ poor offensive line. The most likely result of this game is Detroit winning by exactly three, so I would’ve wanted -2.5 to bet Detroit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
The Seahawks have become a public underdog.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 61% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Seahawks are 36-49 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Seahawks are 8-16 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ ppg since 2007.

Russell Wilson is 15-7 ATS as an underdog.

Lions are 7-16 ATS after a double-digit win since 2011.

Opening Line: Lions -2.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Dome.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Lions 31, Seahawks 27
Lions -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 28, Lions 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-3)
Line: Bengals by 4. Total: 55.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -5.
Sunday, Oct 28, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals haven’t been as potent offensively since losing Tyler Eifert. I mentioned this last week, but Cincinnati had no issues moving the ball against the Falcons in Week 4, at least until Eifert got hurt. The Bengals didn’t punt a single time prior to Eifert’s injury, but once the talented tight end went down, their five drives went: punt, punt, turnover, field goal and then touchdown at the end after Eifert’s injury. Since then, their offense scored 13 against the Dolphins (two touchdowns came via the defense), 21 on Pittsburgh’s poor defense and 10 against the Chiefs, who couldn’t stop anyone prior to that game.

The Bengals won’t be able to run on the Buccaneers, but they have a great matchup in the passing game. Tampa has a woeful secondary that has struggled versus most aerial attacks this year. I can’t imagine the Buccaneers having much success containing A.J. Green and the emerging Tyler Boyd. C.J. Uzomah should have a good game as well, as the Buccaneers haven’t been able to defend tight ends this season.

That said, the Bengals have enjoyed nice matchups on this side of the ball in the previous two weeks, yet they haven’t been able to take advantage of them. They should’ve scored quite a bit versus the Steelers and Chiefs, yet they couldn’t. Things would be different if Eifert were still around, but he’s done for the year.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Bengals also have injury woes on this side of the ball. They lost linebacker Nick Vigil early in the Steelers game, and that was huge. Most people haven’t heard of Vigil, but he’s Cincinnati’s best coverage linebacker. The Bengals haven’t been able to stop tight ends or pass-catching running backs since his injury. Meanwhile, Vontaze Burfict, the best player in Cincinnati’s back seven, got hurt against the Chiefs and may not be able to play in this game.

If Burfict and Vigil are both out again, the Bengals won’t be able to stop the Buccaneers at all. Jameis Winston simply has way too many weapons, including two talented tight ends who will make the Bengals’ remaining linebackers look more inept than usual.

Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and DeSean Jackson have tougher matchups against solid cornerbacks, but the Bengals don’t defend the slot very well. Adam Humphries is not Tyreek Hill, but he’s a dependable weapon for Winston, and I suspect that he’ll have a solid game in this very favorable matchup.

RECAP: I was hoping to bet the Buccaneers at +6, but the sharps made quick work of that number. This spread quickly fell to +4.5, and I could see it dropping to +3.5 by kickoff.

This is a spread I’d like to lock in early in the week, but at the same time, I want to see if Burfict and Vigil are out. Cincinnati’s defense isn’t nearly the same without those two talented linebackers, while the offense has regressed without Eifert. And yet, the sportsbooks haven’t really compensated for all of these injuries because the public is clueless in that regard.

I’m going to pencil in the Buccaneers for three units, but that may change depending on how the injury report looks.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Vontaze Burfict isn’t practicing, so the Bengals might be missing two very important defensive players. I’ll lock this in Friday if Burfict and Nick Vigil are out, and I’ll even increase the unit count.

SATURDAY NOTES: Argh, this line dropped to +3.5 before the final injury report was released. The Bengals will be without their top two linebackers as well as cornerback Darqueze Dennard. It could be argued that the Buccaneers are the better team here, so I love them despite the sharps destroying this spread. There’s no point in betting this game now, so I’m going to wait around for +4 to appear (-114 juice is the best I can find now.) I will, however, increase my wager to four units.

PICK LOCKED IN: My patience paid off, as +4 -110 is available in most books right now. I’m going to lock this in before the sharps can bet Tampa down again. It’s worth noting that the best line is +4 -109 at Bookmaker (though I’ll round to -110 to make things easier to track.)

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad I locked in +4, as this spread has fallen to +3.5 again. The sharps have pounded the Buccaneers all week.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

The sharps are pounding Tampa.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 71% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 84-54 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Bengals are 25-16 ATS at home since 2013.

Opening Line: Bengals -6.

Opening Total: 53.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 51 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Bengals 24, Buccaneers 23
Buccaneers +4 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$400
Under 55 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 37, Buccaneers 34

Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Carolina Panthers (4-2)
Line: Ravens by 2.5. Total: 44.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -2.5.
Sunday, Oct 28, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

Video of the Week: I’ve posted prank call videos before. This one is hilarious, at least until the reveal at the end (thanks Crillo T.):

I feel like the radio hosts should’ve played that John Cena nonsense again following the reveal, just to piss her off one more time.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Ravens were definitely not going to match the 11 sacks they recorded versus the Titans in their previous game, as Drew Brees releases the ball too quickly. They were able to hit Brees on numerous occasions, the future Hall of Fame quarterback was clutch, converting some key third and fourth downs despite the pressure. One particular third-and-8 comes to mind. Brees was being tackled as he released the ball late in the third quarter, and yet his pass moved the chains. The Ravens were up 10 at the time, but this conversion sparked the Saints’ comeback victory.

Cam Newton, however, may suffer the same fate as Marcus Mariota. I don’t think he’ll be sacked 11 times, but that figure could be relatively high, considering Newton’s mobility. The Panthers simply don’t block very well. The left side of their line is especially poor, particularly left tackle. Chris Clark doesn’t stand a chance against Terrell Suggs, and it’s not like Carolina can double team him, given all of the other talented players the Ravens have in their front seven.

Meanwhile, Baltimore’s secondary is skilled as well. It was missing Marlon Humphrey last week, but he won’t be needed as much this Sunday, given the lacking downfield weaponry Newton has to work with. Newton’s primary target will continue to be Christian McCaffrey, and I like the Ravens’ chances of defending him with C.J. Mosley patrolling the middle of the field.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens of a year ago wouldn’t have been able to exploit a terrific matchup in this game, but this version certainly can. The Panthers have a miserable secondary, as evidenced last week when Carson Wentz threw all over them, completing 15 consecutive passes at one point. They had no answer for Alshon Jeffery or Zach Ertz, and I imagine that they’ll similarly struggle versus Baltimore.

Joe Flacco had no potent weapons at his disposal last year, as his top target was Mike Wallace. Now, Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead all serve as dynamic threats, and they should be able to expose Carolina’s struggling defensive backfield. Crabtree couldn’t do much versus Marshon Lattimore last week, but he’ll bounce back in a much easier matchup.

The Panthers have a great front seven that can shut down the run, so they’d have the edge in this contest if Flacco didn’t have talented receivers to throw to. That, however, is not the case, so they’ll need to pressure Flacco as much as possible. The Ravens have some concerns at left guard and right tackle, so perhaps Kawann Short and Julius Peppers will succeed in those areas.

RECAP: The Panthers might be a public dog – it’s too early to tell – as it seems like the public is confused about why the Ravens are favored on the road. This game opened at Panthers -1, so Baltimore is -2 in Carolina because the sharps are betting them. The Ravens are the better team, and they match up very well versus the Panthers. Carolina has also played some sloppy football recently, while the Ravens are a more sound team. Given that they’re coming off a loss, I expect them to have more energy than the Panthers, who just had a great comeback victory against the defending Super Bowl champions.

I’m going to pencil in the Ravens for a couple of units, but I could see my wager increasing as the week progresses. If there’s a lot of public enthusiasm for the Panthers as home dogs, that’ll only strengthen my belief that Baltimore is the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS/UNIT CHANGE: Cam Newton is banged up. He’s dealing with a shoulder injury. He’ll almost certainly play, but he’s not 100 percent. I love the Ravens even more now, and I’m going to double my wager.

SATURDAY NOTES: Cam Newton wasn’t on the final injury report, but he was limited with a shoulder all week. Perhaps it’s nothing, but it could also be possible that Newton isn’t fully healthy. I love my Ravens wager, though there aren’t any -2.5 -110s around anymore. I’ll be patient with it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Well, I didn’t get a -2.5 -110, but I did manage to find a -2.5 -115, which is currently available at both 5Dimes and Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Panthers might be a public dog, but the sharps love the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 55% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Ravens are 15-24 ATS as road favorites since 2005.

Opening Line: Panthers -1.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Sunny, 59 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Panthers 17
Ravens -2.5 -115 (4 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$460
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 36, Ravens 21

Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games
Indianapolis at Oakland, Green Bay at LA Rams, San Francisco at Arizona, New Orleans at Minnesota, New England at Buffalo

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)