2025 NFL Picks – Week 12: Patriots at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I would have felt much differently about this matchup a few weeks ago. Back when Joe Flacco was torching the opposition with his two stud receivers, the Bengals would have looked like a team that could hang around with the Patriots and perhaps achieve a back-door cover. Even an upset would have been on the table.

That’s not the case any longer, as things have greatly changed for a couple of reasons. First, Flacco looked incredibly decrepit in an easy matchup against the Steelers. His pick-six in a close game was absolutely pathetic. As speculated earlier, there’s a chance Flacco’s body is breaking down because he’s too old. Second, to make matters worse, Ja’Marr Chase won’t be available because he spit on an opposing player. With Chase suspended, Flacco won’t be able to force feed the ball to his No. 1 receiver, which is what he’s been doing the entire time since taking over for Jake Browning.

The Bengals won’t be able to run very successfully either. The Patriots are a decent 11th against the rush, and with Chase sidelined, they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Bengals also have severe issues on this side of the ball. They already owned one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and now they’ll have to continue to operate without their best defensive player, Trey Hendrickson, who is considered doubtful.

With Hendrickson sidelined, the Bengals don’t stand a chance of generating pressure. This will be very problematic because Drake Maye is playing on an MVP level. The Bengals couldn’t even contain Mason Rudolph last week, or Justin Fields prior to the bye. How will they deal with Maye?

The answer to that question is that they won’t. They’ll also have issues against TreVeyon Henderson because they have the worst run defense in the NFL.

RECAP: The Patriots were favored by seven on Monday. The sharps wasted no time betting them up to -8. And it’s easy to see why. The Bengals’ offense has taken a couple of major hits lately with Flacco regressing and Chase being suspended. Meanwhile, the defense will somehow have to stop Maye without Hendrickson. If this wasn’t enough, the Patriots also have extra rest because they are coming off a mini-bye.

On top of all that, we’re getting a low line. The Patriots should be favored by double digits, but I guess casual bettors haven’t figured out how horrible the Bengals are yet. This will be a huge wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is a bummer, but Joe Burrow was full in practice on Wednesday. Even crazier is that Joe Flacco was limited with a shoulder, so Burrow was actually the healthier quarterback. I will not be betting a huge amount – or really any amount – on the Patriots if Burrow returns, but we’ll have to see what the spread is.

SATURDAY NOTES: For the first time all week, there was some pessimism regarding Joe Burrow. Despite Burrow practicing fully on Wednesday and Thursday, he was limited on Friday. Joe Flacco, conversely, went from limited on Wednesday and Thursday, and then full on Friday. I’ll be betting the Patriots if Flacco starts, and I might be on the Bengals if it’s Burrow.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Joe Burrow will not play in this game. It’ll be an injured Joe Flacco with no Ja’Marr Chase, and no Trey Hendrickson on the other side. The Patriots look great.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I thought the sharps might come in on the Patriots when the Joe Burrow announcement came, but we didn’t see that. I guess I’m the only person who noticed how bad Joe Flacco has been since hurting his shoulder. The best line is -7 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -10.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -5.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -10.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Plenty of action on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 75% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Opening Line: Patriots -5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Sunny, 49 degrees. Light wind.