2025 NFL Picks – Week 12: Bills at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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Week 11 Analysis: We started well on Thursday, but Sunday was a disaster. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Patriots, 3 units (win): Not only did we hit with the Patriots -12.5, we also won with Justin Fields rushing overs.

Packers, 5 units (push): I can’t believe we managed only a push in this promising matchup. Jameis Winston had several dropped interceptions, but the Packers couldn’t capitalize. Josh Jacobs getting hurt didn’t help matters.

Bills, 3 units (win): The Bills fell behind early, but came through in the second half. Josh Allen was incredible off a loss.

Bengals, 5 units (loss): The Bengals looked like they’d have a good chance to cover the +5.5 until Joe Flacco threw a back-breaking pick-six. Flacco was terrible all game despite going up against an injury-ravaged secondary. I don’t understand how he suddenly became so bad. Maybe his 40-year-old body has taken too many hits? If so, he should be a fade moving forward.

Vikings, 4 units (loss): Wow. J.J. McCarthy sucks. I thought the Vikings would have a huge edge with their receivers against Chicago’s injury-ridden secondary, but it doesn’t matter when the quarterback is absolute garbage. I can’t bet the Vikings again unless they’re large underdogs or battling another terrible quarterback.

Ravens, 3 units (loss): In Week 10, we bet the Browns and the Jets team total under, but that lost because the Browns surrendered 14 points on special teams. This past week, we faded the Browns and bet their team total under, and yet they were the team to score 13 points off special teams and defense. Can we get a f**king break with this special teams nonsense? Every week we get screwed by it and never benefit! Had the Ravens allowed just one fewer point on special teams, we would have been profitable for the week.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen endured some struggles in the first half against the Buccaneers. It looked like the Bills were going to lose their second consecutive game to a Florida team, but Allen played on an MVP level in the second half, finishing with three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns.

Allen will have his work cut out for him in this game. The Texans have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, so Allen won’t be able to do much aerially, especially with Dalton Kincaid sidelined. Allen will see lots of pressure from Houston’s front as well, so he’ll need to use his legs once again to escape pressure.

The Texans are worse against the run than the pass, but only by default. They’re fifth versus the rush compared to being fourth against the pass, so there won’t be any opportunities for James Cook to find consistent running room.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: We know that the Texans will be able to run the ball. That’s because everyone has moved the chains on the ground against the Bills. Buffalo is a woeful 29th against the run. Sean Tucker just looked like the second coming of Adrian Peterson against them last week.

There’s a chance the Bills will improve versus the rush eventually. One of the big problems is that Matt Milano is not nearly 100 percent. He’s laboring through an injury, so perhaps he’ll get healthier as the season progresses. It’s unlikely, however, that he’ll be substantially better on just three days of rest. Thus, Woody Marks could have the best game of his young, professional career.

Marks will need to have a big game if C.J. Stroud is sidelined again. Stroud has now missed two games with a concussion, and this could end up being the third because he won’t have nearly as much time to be cleared. Davis Mills has had his ups and downs thus far, but he’ll be in a much tougher passing matchup than what he experienced against the Jaguars and Titans the past two weeks.

RECAP: My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. The thinking is that the inferior team doesn’t have enough preparation time to formulate a good game plan against the superior foe.

The Bills are better than the Texans, but winning by margin in this environment could be tricky. Houston has a stellar defense, and the unit befuddled Allen in a matchup last year. If Allen performs similarly against Houston’s top-five defense, then this could be a low-scoring game that’ll lend itself to the underdog covering.

Either way, I don’t plan on betting this contest. Thursday games are always wonky and terribly played, but I’m leaning toward Houston, regardless of Stroud’s status.

Our Week 12 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -2.5.

Computer Model: Bills -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 81% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Opening Line: Bills -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.