NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2025): 8-6 (-$545)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,260)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2025): 5-9-1 (-$480)
2025 NFL Picks: 91-82-3 (-$935)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 23, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: I posted one of these recently, but this is another YouTube relationship skit:

One of the commenters said it best: “I don’t think I’ve ever been this enthralled by a YouTube skit.”

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s hard to believe that the NFL single-game completions record-holder isn’t Tom Brady, or Peyton Manning, or Patrick Mahomes, or Joe Burrow. It’s Jacoby Brissett. The Arizona backup did this against the 49ers, albeit in garbage time. Sure, the Cardinals were getting blown out, but it was still an impressive feat. I find it unlikely that Kyler Murray could have accomplished this.

Brissett will continue to start for the Cardinals with Murray on injured reserve. He has an easy matchup in this contest and should be better when the game is still undecided. Though the Jaguars are able to generate consistent pressure with their edge rushers, they’re still 21st against the pass. Brissett probably won’t have Marvin Harrison Jr. available, but he’ll be able to move the chains consistently by connecting with Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, who had a monster performance versus the 49ers.

The Jaguars are better against the run than the pass, ranking 13th in that regard. They won’t have an issue clamping down on Arizona’s rushing attack because the Cardinals don’t run the ball very well.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Though the Jaguars prevailed in a blowout last week, they were hardly impressive while throwing the ball against the Chargers. Trevor Lawrence did a solid job of converting third downs in the second half, but struggled otherwise, particularly in the opening half.

This has been the Lawrence experience this season, as he’s been largely underwhelming. It hasn’t been entirely his fault – the Jaguars surrender the eighth-most pressures in the NFL, and his top two receivers have missed time – but those issues could continue to persist in this game. It’s unclear if Brian Thomas Jr. will be able to return from injury, and Arizona can generate some pressure with Calais Campbell and Josh Sweat.

Lawrence was able to lean on the run in the blowout victory against the Chargers. Doing so won’t be as effective in this game because the Cardinals are far better against the rush than the Chargers. They rank 12th, while the Chargers are 20th, so Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten won’t pick up as many long gains on the ground.

RECAP: Despite the Jaguars being 6-4 and the Cardinals being 3-7, I consider these teams to be even. Arizona has just been incredibly unlucky in many of its games. Five of its losses could have gone the other way in the final minutes of those games. There’s a universe where the Cardinals are considered to be an upstart at 6-4, but variance has not gone their way. Conversely, the Jaguars have been more lucky than not. If you don’t believe me, consider their EPA rankings. The Jaguars are 21st in offense and 21st in defense, while the Cardinals are 20th in offense and 12th in defense.

With that in mind, I made the Cardinals a 1.5-point home favorite, yet they’re underdogs of 2.5. That’s not a substantial difference in the point spreads, and I wish we were getting the full +3, but I like the Cardinals in this game. Not only are we getting the equal team as a home underdog; we have them in a good spot because they’re coming off two losses, while the Jaguars enjoyed a blowout victory. The Jaguars have two divisional battles after this game, so I’m not sure if we’ll see them 100-percent focused for a non-conference opponent.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Cardinals are now +3, so they might be a one- or two-unit play. I might not go there, however, if the injury report doesn’t improve. So many Cardinal players missed Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: Everyone is talking about the injuries the Cardinals have – which really don’t seem that bad – but the Jaguars are missing players at many positions. They’ll be without one of their tackles (Anton Harrison), top two receivers, a starting edge rusher (Travon Walker), and some cornerbacks. I still think this line is way off, so I’ll be on the Cardinals if we can get them at +3.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I was hoping to get +3, but the sharps have bet the Cardinals down to +2.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Cardinals at +3 and +2.5. The best line is Cardinals +2 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Jaguars, coming off a blowout victory, have two divisional games after this non-conference foe.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -1.5.

Computer Model: Cardinals -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 52% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Jaguars are 69-116 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 23-56 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Cardinals are 52-34 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Jaguars -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I bet the Cleveland fans who were booing Dillon Gabriel just so they could see Shedeur Sanders feel very stupid right about now. They got their wish, as Sanders took the field for a concussed Gabriel, and they watched the former Colorado star go 4-of-16 with an interception.

If someone on Deion Sanders’ payroll, namely Josina Anderson, is reading this, they may want to skip the rest of this prediction because I won’t have nice things to say about Shedeur. Deion has not paid me off, after all, so I can tell you that Shedeur might be the worst quarterback we’ll ever see in NFL history. He is limited in talent and has zero pocket awareness. If there’s any semblance of pressure, all he can do is drift backward in the pocket and take sacks or throw poor passes. That’s the extent of his ability.

Sanders will at least have an easier matchup this week. The Ravens have been much better defensively since getting back all their players from injury, while the Raiders haven’t been able to stop anyone all year. However, Maxx Crosby will be able to put heat on Sanders because of Cleveland’s sketchy tackle play, which means Sanders will fold like a cheap suit. That said, Deion, if you’re reading this, if you can transfer some money into my bank account, I’ll tell the world how great of a quarterback your son is.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: We go from one DEI hire to the next. Josina Anderson passionately tweeted about Sanders, while Mina Kimes praised Geno Smith this offseason, calling him a top-10 quarterback. I’ll say this about Kines: When she’s not peddling solitaire scams, she’s at least an honest analyst. Unfortunately, she’s not a very smart analyst if she ever thought Smith was remotely close to being a top-10 quarterback.

Smith has been dreadful this season. He couldn’t even consistently move the chains against the Cowboys. I know Dallas has made improvements to its defense, but the output was still sad. It’s really not all on Smith because his blocking is terrible, but he also makes poor decisions sometimes. He’ll have more of an opportunity to make poor decisions against a Cleveland defense that will rattle him via Myles Garrett’s pressure.

Smith won’t be able to turn to Ashton Jeanty either. Jeanty, who had a grand total of seven rushing yards versus Dallas, will be tasked with battling the league’s ninth-ranked defense.

RECAP: I wish I could give you a strong bet in the Battle of the DEI Quarterbacks, but I can’t. I don’t know where to go with this game.

If Dillon Gabriel were healthy, I’d be on the Browns. However, even if he were to take the field, I wouldn’t trust him because he’s coming off a concussion. It’s likely that Sanders will start, and I can’t back someone who could be the worst quarterback in NFL history against anyone. The Raiders could show up drunk, and I’d have no interest in Cleveland.

So, why not back the Raiders? Well, in addition to Smith going up against a great defense, the Raiders are also in an awful spot. They’re a dreadful team coming off a short week, so we will not see a good performance out of them. We have to lay points with them as well, which doesn’t seem like a great proposition.

I guess I’ll be on the Raiders, but I don’t like it. I don’t see a good betting opportunity, but if you do, I wish you the best of luck. Just make sure you’re not a DEI analyst before making a wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Raiders are now -4! Good luck to anyone betting this terrible game.

SATURDAY NOTES: I wish we could fade both teams this week. What a bummer that they are playing each other!

SATURDAY NOTES II: We’re going to have some fun here. We’re going to bet defensive touchdowns for both teams, and also BOTH teams.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money came in on the Browns at +4. I understand why, but good luck with Shedeur!

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jack Conklin is active, which is a big deal. There’s been heavy sharp action on the Browns, so most of the +3.5 lines are gone. You can still get +3.5 -116 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -2.5.

Computer Model: Raiders -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Shedeur Sanders is a public dog. Who’s betting on the Browns, Josina Anderson?

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 86% (101,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Raiders are 21-36 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Geno Smith is 3-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+. ???

Opening Line: Raiders -2.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: Raheem Morris is the dumbest coach in the NFL. We’re talking about Atlanta’s offense and not their defense, and as we all know, Morris’ background is in defense. So, what does he have to do with Atlanta’s offense? Oh, just about everything.

Morris has done many inept things as head coach of the Falcons this year, but his biggest blunder was not accepting the bye following the game in Germany. Morris, for whatever reason, thought a Week 5 bye would be an improvement rather than taking a week off following an 11-hour flight home from Germany. The result was not only a loss to the Panthers, but catastrophic injuries to two of his most important players. Fatigue lends itself to injuries, and the Falcons lost both Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London to those versus Carolina, as an exhausted group blew a 21-10 lead to the Panthers in the second half.

Kirk Cousins couldn’t keep the team afloat, especially without London. Cousins, who has never been the same since his torn Achilles, missed many throws, allowing the Panthers to prevail in overtime. Cousins faces a soft pass defense this week, but it’s not like he had a tougher battle versus the Panthers. In fact, the Saints are better against the rush than the Panthers, so Bijan Robinson won’t be able to find as much running room as he did last week when he tallied 100 net yards in the opening half alone. The Saints will also be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage as soon as they figure out that they’re battling a decrepit quarterback.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: There’s a huge disparity between the two run defenses in this game. While the Saints come in at a shocking fifth versus ground attacks, the Falcons are 25th. Jonathan Taylor’s monster performance against the Falcons in Germany was no fluke.

Alvin Kamara hasn’t enjoyed the best season, but he’s faced so many tough opponents. We’ll get into that later, but this is a rare soft opponent for Kamara, who could have one of his best performances this season. Taysom Hill also figures to pick up some yardage on the ground.

This all has to be music to Tyler Shough’s ears. Shough had a solid performance against the Panthers two weeks ago, and in that game, the Saints were also able to keep things moving on the ground. Shough will once again be able to benefit from favorable down-and-distance situations.

RECAP: The Falcons opened as favorites following the announcement that Penix and London would be sidelined. I couldn’t believe it. I guess the sharps couldn’t either because they hammered the Saints enough to make the host the favorite.

I don’t think the spread has moved far enough. We can address both teams in that regard. The Falcons are a disaster right now. They still have a solid pass rush, and Robinson is an incredible player who can threaten to go the distance whenever he touches the ball, but that’s about it. Cousins is a shell of his former self, and he doesn’t stand much of a chance without a viable receiving threat. With London out, Cousins will have to depend on Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts while playing behind an offensive line with two missing starters and a hobbled Chris Lindstrom. Yikes.

The Saints, meanwhile, can be considered underrated. I’m sure those who believe power rankings need to be built on the order in which teams are listed on nfl.com/standings will think this is a rubbish take, but the Saints have endured such a tough schedule this year. They’ve taken on the Bills, Rams, 49ers (with Nick Bosa), Patriots, Seahawks, and Buccaneers. I can also include the Bears, but I don’t think they’re that good. Nevertheless, the Saints have gone against only two teams worse than Group C. Those would be the Giants and Panthers, and New Orleans is 2-0 against them. Not only did the Saints beat those teams; they also prevailed by double digits.

If the Saints had even an average schedule, they could have three or four wins by now. And if they were 4-6, they certainly wouldn’t just be -1.5 versus a 3-7 squad starting a decrepit quarterback and no top receiver.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Chris Lindstrom missed Wednesday’s practice. If he can’t go on top of the injuries they have, good luck, Falcons.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps continue to bet the Saints. The line keeps rising in their favor. I don’t think this line will get to -3, but I wonder if we’ll get other pro money on Atlanta at +3.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m dropping the unit count to two. I couldn’t stomach putting the Saints on my Supercontest or Circa Millions card, so this should not be a play of three-plus units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no Taliese Fuaga for the Saints, but that’s OK. The sharps bet the Saints earlier in the week, but other pro money came back on the Falcons at +2.5 and +2. The best line is -1.5 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.5.

Computer Model: Saints -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Plenty of action on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 75% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 11 of the last 15 meetings.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the 10th part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss my famous sportsbook trek.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I had a nice laugh when Lisa Salters asked Dak Prescott following the Monday night game, “Your offense struggled before the bye, but was explosive in this game. What changed?” Uhh… I don’t know, maybe it was the opponent being the Raiders? The Cowboys had their way with Las Vegas’ 22nd-ranked defense.

Things won’t be so easy against Philadelphia. The Eagles’ fifth-ranked defense won’t allow the Cowboys to go up and down the field on them. In fact, Philadelphia’s defense could continue to improve because the newly acquired Jaelan Phillips is a big difference-maker, and his presence has further enhanced Philadelphia’s pass rush. The Eagles will hound Prescott all afternoon behind a sketchy offensive line.

It’s not like Prescott will be able to hide behind his running game either. The Eagles are second versus the rush, so Javonte Williams won’t find any running lanes. Prescott will have to do it on his own.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Like the Eagles, Dallas bolstered its defense at the trade deadline. Despite being 3-5-1, Jerry Jones acquired Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson. Both played Monday night, and both had an impact in helping the Cowboys improve against the run. Ashton Jeanty didn’t run very much, but the Cowboys still restricted him to single-digit rushing yards.

Containing Saquon Barkley would have been a different animal last year, but the Eagles haven’t been run blocking well for their All-Pro back. Barkley could get swallowed up, forcing Jalen Hurts to beat Dallas’ secondary.

Hurts would normally have a good chance of living up to the challenge, but Lane Johnson is sidelined. The Eagles have a long history of failing to live up to expectations without the All-Pro right tackle. The Cowboys, who can generate decent pressure on the quarterback – even before the trade for Williams – will do a good job of limiting Philadelphia’s offense.

RECAP: I had a far different opinion on this game a week ago. I found myself thinking the Eagles were the play. The Cowboys would be a bad team coming off a short week, so they wouldn’t be able to fully game plan against the Eagles, who were the far superior team. With a great pass-protecting offensive line, the Eagles would be able to neutralize Dallas’ pass rush and give Hurts every opportunity to torch a poor secondary.

Things have changed quite a bit. The Cowboys are better now that they have Williams and Wilson. They’re still not a good team, but I don’t consider them to be a bad team either. They’re right in the middle of the pack at No. 15 in my NFL Power Rankings. Furthermore, the Eagles no longer have an excellent pass-protecting unit because Johnson is sidelined. Philadelphia has a far worse record without Johnson.

I’m going to be on the Cowboys at +3.5. I don’t like them enough to bet them at the moment, but could be talked into a one- or two-unit play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The numbers with and without Lane Johnson are staggering. The Eagles also may not have Cam Jurgens, who missed Wednesday’s practice. I may bet the Cowboys after all.

SATURDAY NOTES: Lane Johnson has officially been ruled out, while Cam Jurgens is questionable. This is a good spot for the Cowboys, who might be worth a small bet if the Eagles are down two offensive linemen.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Cam Jurgens will play, so we will not have a play on this game, barring something unexpected from the inactives list.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money bet the Cowboys at +3.5, but we’ll see if they also bet +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Cowboys. They’ve been betting them at +3.5 and +3. I see only one +3 -110 available, which is at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 59% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Home Team has won 12 of the last 13 meetings (excluding when Eagles sat their starters).

Jalen Hurts is 11-16 ATS as a road favorite.

Dak Prescott is 40-33 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted live bets during Week 11, including Justin Fields over rushing yards. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: All Baker Mayfield did early in the season was win games, but that hasn’t been the case lately; he’s lost three of his previous four games. It’s not that he’s played worse, but his schedule has been more difficult. It doesn’t get any easier against the Rams.

The Rams have a stellar defense that will give Mayfield some problems. They have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL that just forced Sam Darnold into four interceptions. The talented front seven will hurry Mayfield, who still doesn’t have a healthy receiver corps at his disposal. This was fine when playing other teams in the NFC South or the other bad opponents earlier in the year, but it’s not good enough versus superior competition.

The Buccaneers could struggle to run the ball as well. Sean Tucker trampled Buffalo’s defense, but the Rams are much better versus ground attacks for the most part. Mayfield will have to do a lot in this game, which sounds perilous against this defense.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Ask most fans, and they’ll tell you that the Buccaneers have one of the top run defenses in the NFL. This is because they’ve built a reputation on putting the clamps on the run with Vita Vea. However, it’s apparent that Vea is not healthy. He’s been on the injury report with a back problem for several weeks, which would explain why Tampa Bay is just 21st versus the rush.

Kyren Williams may not project well for most people, but he should have a strong performance. We’ve seen so many runners have success against the Buccaneers in recent weeks, and Williams should be the next one.

Williams’ rushing will make life easier for Matthew Stafford. The veteran quarterback is enjoying an MVP-caliber season, and he’ll be able to pick up where another MVP candidate, Josh Allen, left off last week. The Buccaneers aren’t getting as much pressure on the quarterback recently with Vea banged up and Haason Reddick missing time, so Stafford will enjoy much more time in the pocket than he had versus Seattle.

RECAP: Buccaneer fans are probably sick of me saying this, but their team simply has not performed well when stepping up in competition. They were blown out by the Eagles until garbage time. They lost by 15 to the Lions. They suffered a loss to the Patriots at home. And despite the Bills making countless mistakes last week, they still ultimately lost by double digits. Even last year, the Buccaneers were dismantled by the Ravens on a Monday night.

The Rams certainly count as higher competition. They just beat the Seahawks and are currently slotted No. 2 in my NFL Power Rankings. I have them in Group A, while the Buccaneers are firmly in Group C. This means the Rams would be seven-point favorites on a neutral field. Yet, they’re not even favored by seven at home!

Speaking of being at home, the Rams will benefit from Circadian rhythms. East Coast teams, especially those that are inferior in talent, often have trouble playing night games on the road. I can’t give you data specifically for the Rams because they haven’t played too many night games since moving back to Los Angeles, but there’s a long track record of this, and you can Google this phenomenon if you want to read more about it.

I’d love the Rams here, but they’re coming off such a huge win against the Seahawks. How focused could they possibly be against the Buccaneers? Perhaps they’ll be 100-percent focused, but I have my doubts. Thus, I’m limiting the Rams to just a two-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Six Buccaneers were listed with “illness” on Wednesday’s injury report, which could mean that the flu is circulating Tampa Bay’s locker room. This would make fading the Buccaneers even more appealing.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s not ideal that the Rams have Rob Havenstein on injured reserve, but the Buccaneers have more injuries with Jamel Dean, Haason Reddick and some others sidelined as well. There’s also the flu; apparently, 15 Buccaneer players dealt with the flu this week. None are listed as out, but they could be sapped of energy.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’ve decided not to bet this game because this is a bad spot for the Rams, given that they’re coming off such a big victory.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t bet this game, and thankfully, neither will I. We would’ve had a decent day today if we didn’t get back doored by both the Bengals and Titans. What garbage. Anyway, if you’re still betting tonight’s game, the best line is -7 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Rams are coming off a huge win versus the Seahawks.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -6.

Computer Model: Rams -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Tons of action on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 71% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Road Team is 149-102 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 10-31 SU on the West Coast in franchise history.

Todd Bowles is 2-6 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Rams -6.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Frangaysco where the 49ers will take on the Carolina Hurricanes. Guys, I am still on furlough, but because we’re in this stupid city, the prison warden told me that I have to bring my prison roommate with me because he’s from this stupid San Fangaysco city and the judge routinely releases prisoners so they can commit more crimes, and, I quote, “Have sex with other men’s butts that are clean because they’re not in prison.” Guys, I don’t understand. Can someone tell me what sex is? I’ve traveled out of prison for miles, and anyone I ask just laughs at me.

Emmitt: Thanks, Miles. I guess your father Miles Sr. never told you about the bird and the Brees. My father, Emmitt Sr. the Emmitt the VII Esq. VIII telled me once that sexual mean that you have the bird who fly and the Brees who sting, and when you combine guy who fly and guy who sting in the same sentence, you gonna have sexual which is where baby comed fromed.

Reilly: Emmitt, first of all, my dad’s name isn’t Miles Sr. My New Daddy’s name is New Daddy, and he hasn’t gotten around to the talk about the birds and the Brees yet. And second, you’re wrong about where babies come from. Mother told me that she got me at a cabbage patch, which is why I have no real dad. Mother says that this makes me special. But New Daddy, can you tell me about the birds and the Brees?

Jay Cutler: The Eagles are playing the Saints today? That’s cool.

Reilly: New Daddy, didn’t you hear me say that the Carolina Hurricanes are playing the 49ers? And don’t you realize how happy I would be if I got to announce my Philadelphia Eagles? Why don’t you ever listen to me, New Daddy!? Why don’t you tell me about the birds and the Brees!?

Tollefson: Reilly, I’m the expert here, so I’ll tell you about the birds and the Brees. When you kidnap a woman at the local bar and force her to be your slave, she’s the bird because you’ve basically trapped her in a cage like some bird even though, let’s face it, she totally wants to be there. And then you’re the Brees because when you have lots of female slaves, you are a very cool guy like some quarterback.

Reilly: That makes so much sense. Thank you for your expertise as always, Tolly. I guess I won’t be participating in the birds and the Brees. It sounds very nice for all parties involved, except Mother and me because Mother says I’ll have seven years of bad luck if I talk to girls because they’re the devil. I can only do so in a work environment, so I can tell Clarissa Thompkins that I would love to kidnap her and turn her into a female slave, but then that wouldn’t qualify as work anymore. Clarissa, what do you have to say?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Work. I have some breaking news to reveal. Tonight will be the first football game between a team on the East Coast and a team on the West Coast in NFL history as a result of people surviving the Oregon Trail. Back to you, Work.

Reilly: HEY, MY NAME IS NOT WORK! AT LEAST EMMITT IS USING REAL NAMES! CLARISSA, AS REVENGE, I’M GOING TO KIDNAP YOU ONE DAY AND MAKE YOU MY FEMALE SLAVE WHEN MOTHER IS AT BINGO NIGHT!

Mina Kimes: Kevin, this is the most toxic environment I’ve ever been in. All this talk about female slavery is very misogynistic. And it’s all because you hate Asian female NFL analysts. Why doesn’t anyone talk about kidnapping me and being a female slave? Is it because I’m an Asian NFL analyst who can talk better ball than anyone in this room? Only I’ve said that Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback. Have any of your precious female slaves ever said such great analysis? What about beating quarters coverage over the top? No female slave in world history has ever said such bold and sharp things. But no one dares to make me a female slave because no one can handle an Asian female NFL analyst.

Reilly: Mila, no offense, but you’d make a horrible female slave because you talk too much and don’t appreciate Nick Foles bobbleheads.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST SAY THAT A WOMAN TALKS TOO MUCH AND DOESN’T LIKE NICK FOLDS BOBBLEHEAD DOLLS!? THIS IS SO TOXIC. EVERY CULTURED PERSON KNOWS THAT WOMEN APPRECIATE NICK FOLDS BOBBLEHEAD DOLLS MORE THAN ANY CIS WHITE MALE! YOU’RE SAYING THEY DON’T LIKE THEM BECAUSE YOU’RE A SEXIST PIG!

Reilly: This is work, so I can talk to you, Sarah. You’re so negative all the time. It’s not Nick Folds, but Nick Foles. What do you think Nick Foles is when you say Nick Folds, a folding chair or something!?

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about folding chairs, Kevin. Let’s talk about other types of chairs, Kevin. We can start with the wingback, Kevin. Next is the club, Kevin. How about we move on to the bistro, Kevin? Try the egg on for size, Kevin. What about the Louis, Kevin? Next on the list is wishbone, Kevin. Why not share your thoughts on the desk chair, Kevin? Now we can transition to Eames, Kevin. Last but not least, there’s the Kevin chair, Kevin, because people sit on your all the time, Kevin.

Reilly: That insult doesn’t even make any sense, loser! How about the Charles Davis chair, which is a chair that is dumb and makes stupid insults! We’ll be back right after this!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Though the 49ers are still missing prominent personnel on the defensive side of the ball, their fans were at least able to watch their starting quarterback once again last week. Mac Jones did a solid job filling in for Brock Purdy, but Purdy was excellent against the Cardinals He threw nearly as many touchdowns as incompletions in a lopsided affair.

Arizona’s defense is ranked 12th, so it’s not like Purdy had an easy matchup in his first game back from injury. This matchup is much easier. The Panthers are 24th in defensive EPA. Their pass defense has been woeful for most of the year, so it was not a surprise that Drake London accumulated 100-plus receiving yards in the opening half of the Atlanta game. Purdy should be able to attack the Panthers with ease, especially with George Kittle.

Of course, Purdy won’t have to do everything. Christian McCaffrey figures to have a big game as well. Bijan Robinson tallied 100 total net yards in the first half alone last week, so imagine what McCaffrey will be able to do.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young is often a dreadful quarterback, but that wasn’t the case last week. Young torched the Falcons mercilessly in the second half, generating a comeback from down 21-10 despite battling a solid pass defense. It seems unlikely, however, that Young would suddenly become an incredible quarterback overnight; he was abysmal the prior week versus the horrible Saints pass defense, after all. It’s more likely that Young’s great performance was the byproduct of the Falcons being jetlagged from their 11-hour flight from Germany.

Young probably will regress, but it certainly benefits him that the 49ers defense is so ravaged by injury. Their replacement for Fred Warner is now even injured, while the pass rush isn’t great because of Nick Bosa’s absence. Young should have some time to locate Tetairoa McMillan, though I don’t exactly have confidence that he can take advantage of these liabilities.

The 49ers have at least held up against the run. This will be helpful in containing Young if he’s somehow able to continue his high level of play. They rank 10th versus ground attacks, so being able to limit Rico Dowdle will make things more difficult for Young.

RECAP: Anyone who asks me to believe in Young suddenly being a great quarterback after just one game might as well try to sell me beachfront property in Nebraska. Young isn’t too far removed from scoring just seven points against the Saints. Carolina couldn’t even hit 17 points in a couple of their victories. I don’t think he’s going to have another big game against a well-coached San Francisco defense that holds up well against the run. Meanwhile, San Francisco should be able to score easily against the Panthers’ 24th-ranked defense.

There’s no doubt that the 49ers are the superior team despite the records of these teams being very similar. They also happen to be in the superior spot for two reasons. First, the Panthers are coming off a victory, which puts them close to auto-fade territory. Bad teams – and I consider the Panthers to be a bad team – tend to struggle off victories. We saw this the last time Carolina won. The Panthers lost 17-7 to the Saints following their upset over the Packers. They’re 2-3 against the spread this year following a defeat, and one of the victories happened to be against another bad team off a victory.

The second issue for the Panthers is that they’re an Eastern team playing a night game on the West Coast. They’ll be impacted by Circadian rhythms. This is something not talked about often, but has impacted Eastern teams in these situations, especially when they’re the inferior squad on the field. If you want actual numbers behind it, the 49ers are 10-5 against the spread when favored in Monday night home games against East Coast teams dating back to 1989.

It’s not a perfect spot for the 49ers – I wish they were coming off a loss – but with nothing to look ahead to, the 49ers should be able to take care of business at home against an overrated team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There hasn’t been an injury report, but it was great to hear Andy agree with me that the 49ers are one of the top picks this week. Have a listen:

SATURDAY NOTES: Neither of Carolina’s primary linebackers has practiced yet this week. If both are out, Kyle Shanahan is going to have a field day exposing Carolina’s weaknesses over the middle of the field.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Both of Carolina’s primary linebackers are out. This may be why the sharps bet the 49ers at -7.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The 49ers have struggled against tight ends since losing Fred Warner. Ja’Tavion Sanders looks good in this matchup. The best number is over 16.5 receiving yards -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

We’re staying on DraftKings for our same-game parlay. We’re going with Ja’Tavion Sanders over 16.5 receiving yards, Christian McCaffrey over 48.5 receiving yards, and George Kittle over 58.5 receiving yards. This $25 parlay is boosted 20 percent and pays $157.50.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been sharp money on both sides of this game, with the pros betting on the 49ers -7 and Panthers +7.5. The best line is -7 -120 at both DraftKings and BetMGM. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The Panthers are a bad team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Decent lean on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 65% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

49ers are 44-33 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Clear, 57 degrees. Light wind.