2025 NFL Picks – Week 12: Falcons at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: Raheem Morris is the dumbest coach in the NFL. We’re talking about Atlanta’s offense and not their defense, and as we all know, Morris’ background is in defense. So, what does he have to do with Atlanta’s offense? Oh, just about everything.

Morris has done many inept things as head coach of the Falcons this year, but his biggest blunder was not accepting the bye following the game in Germany. Morris, for whatever reason, thought a Week 5 bye would be an improvement rather than taking a week off following an 11-hour flight home from Germany. The result was not only a loss to the Panthers, but catastrophic injuries to two of his most important players. Fatigue lends itself to injuries, and the Falcons lost both Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London to those versus Carolina, as an exhausted group blew a 21-10 lead to the Panthers in the second half.

Kirk Cousins couldn’t keep the team afloat, especially without London. Cousins, who has never been the same since his torn Achilles, missed many throws, allowing the Panthers to prevail in overtime. Cousins faces a soft pass defense this week, but it’s not like he had a tougher battle versus the Panthers. In fact, the Saints are better against the rush than the Panthers, so Bijan Robinson won’t be able to find as much running room as he did last week when he tallied 100 net yards in the opening half alone. The Saints will also be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage as soon as they figure out that they’re battling a decrepit quarterback.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: There’s a huge disparity between the two run defenses in this game. While the Saints come in at a shocking fifth versus ground attacks, the Falcons are 25th. Jonathan Taylor’s monster performance against the Falcons in Germany was no fluke.

Alvin Kamara hasn’t enjoyed the best season, but he’s faced so many tough opponents. We’ll get into that later, but this is a rare soft opponent for Kamara, who could have one of his best performances this season. Taysom Hill also figures to pick up some yardage on the ground.

This all has to be music to Tyler Shough’s ears. Shough had a solid performance against the Panthers two weeks ago, and in that game, the Saints were also able to keep things moving on the ground. Shough will once again be able to benefit from favorable down-and-distance situations.

RECAP: The Falcons opened as favorites following the announcement that Penix and London would be sidelined. I couldn’t believe it. I guess the sharps couldn’t either because they hammered the Saints enough to make the host the favorite.

I don’t think the spread has moved far enough. We can address both teams in that regard. The Falcons are a disaster right now. They still have a solid pass rush, and Robinson is an incredible player who can threaten to go the distance whenever he touches the ball, but that’s about it. Cousins is a shell of his former self, and he doesn’t stand much of a chance without a viable receiving threat. With London out, Cousins will have to depend on Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts while playing behind an offensive line with two missing starters and a hobbled Chris Lindstrom. Yikes.

The Saints, meanwhile, can be considered underrated. I’m sure those who believe power rankings need to be built on the order in which teams are listed on nfl.com/standings will think this is a rubbish take, but the Saints have endured such a tough schedule this year. They’ve taken on the Bills, Rams, 49ers (with Nick Bosa), Patriots, Seahawks, and Buccaneers. I can also include the Bears, but I don’t think they’re that good. Nevertheless, the Saints have gone against only two teams worse than Group C. Those would be the Giants and Panthers, and New Orleans is 2-0 against them. Not only did the Saints beat those teams; they also prevailed by double digits.

If the Saints had even an average schedule, they could have three or four wins by now. And if they were 4-6, they certainly wouldn’t just be -1.5 versus a 3-7 squad starting a decrepit quarterback and no top receiver.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Chris Lindstrom missed Wednesday’s practice. If he can’t go on top of the injuries they have, good luck, Falcons.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps continue to bet the Saints. The line keeps rising in their favor. I don’t think this line will get to -3, but I wonder if we’ll get other pro money on Atlanta at +3.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m dropping the unit count to two. I couldn’t stomach putting the Saints on my Supercontest or Circa Millions card, so this should not be a play of three-plus units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no Taliese Fuaga for the Saints, but that’s OK. The sharps bet the Saints earlier in the week, but other pro money came back on the Falcons at +2.5 and +2. The best line is -1.5 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.5.

Computer Model: Saints -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Plenty of action on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 75% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 11 of the last 15 meetings.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Dome.