2025 NFL Picks – Week 12: Browns at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I bet the Cleveland fans who were booing Dillon Gabriel just so they could see Shedeur Sanders feel very stupid right about now. They got their wish, as Sanders took the field for a concussed Gabriel, and they watched the former Colorado star go 4-of-16 with an interception.

If someone on Deion Sanders’ payroll, namely Josina Anderson, is reading this, they may want to skip the rest of this prediction because I won’t have nice things to say about Shedeur. Deion has not paid me off, after all, so I can tell you that Shedeur might be the worst quarterback we’ll ever see in NFL history. He is limited in talent and has zero pocket awareness. If there’s any semblance of pressure, all he can do is drift backward in the pocket and take sacks or throw poor passes. That’s the extent of his ability.

Sanders will at least have an easier matchup this week. The Ravens have been much better defensively since getting back all their players from injury, while the Raiders haven’t been able to stop anyone all year. However, Maxx Crosby will be able to put heat on Sanders because of Cleveland’s sketchy tackle play, which means Sanders will fold like a cheap suit. That said, Deion, if you’re reading this, if you can transfer some money into my bank account, I’ll tell the world how great of a quarterback your son is.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: We go from one DEI hire to the next. Josina Anderson passionately tweeted about Sanders, while Mina Kimes praised Geno Smith this offseason, calling him a top-10 quarterback. I’ll say this about Kines: When she’s not peddling solitaire scams, she’s at least an honest analyst. Unfortunately, she’s not a very smart analyst if she ever thought Smith was remotely close to being a top-10 quarterback.

Smith has been dreadful this season. He couldn’t even consistently move the chains against the Cowboys. I know Dallas has made improvements to its defense, but the output was still sad. It’s really not all on Smith because his blocking is terrible, but he also makes poor decisions sometimes. He’ll have more of an opportunity to make poor decisions against a Cleveland defense that will rattle him via Myles Garrett’s pressure.

Smith won’t be able to turn to Ashton Jeanty either. Jeanty, who had a grand total of seven rushing yards versus Dallas, will be tasked with battling the league’s ninth-ranked defense.

RECAP: I wish I could give you a strong bet in the Battle of the DEI Quarterbacks, but I can’t. I don’t know where to go with this game.

If Dillon Gabriel were healthy, I’d be on the Browns. However, even if he were to take the field, I wouldn’t trust him because he’s coming off a concussion. It’s likely that Sanders will start, and I can’t back someone who could be the worst quarterback in NFL history against anyone. The Raiders could show up drunk, and I’d have no interest in Cleveland.

So, why not back the Raiders? Well, in addition to Smith going up against a great defense, the Raiders are also in an awful spot. They’re a dreadful team coming off a short week, so we will not see a good performance out of them. We have to lay points with them as well, which doesn’t seem like a great proposition.

I guess I’ll be on the Raiders, but I don’t like it. I don’t see a good betting opportunity, but if you do, I wish you the best of luck. Just make sure you’re not a DEI analyst before making a wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Raiders are now -4! Good luck to anyone betting this terrible game.

SATURDAY NOTES: I wish we could fade both teams this week. What a bummer that they are playing each other!

SATURDAY NOTES II: We’re going to have some fun here. We’re going to bet defensive touchdowns for both teams, and also BOTH teams.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money came in on the Browns at +4. I understand why, but good luck with Shedeur!

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jack Conklin is active, which is a big deal. There’s been heavy sharp action on the Browns, so most of the +3.5 lines are gone. You can still get +3.5 -116 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -2.5.

Computer Model: Raiders -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Shedeur Sanders is a public dog. Who’s betting on the Browns, Josina Anderson?

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 86% (101,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Raiders are 21-36 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Geno Smith is 3-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+. ???

Opening Line: Raiders -2.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Dome.