2025 NFL Picks – Week 12: Steelers at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It’s unclear if Aaron Rodgers will play in this game, but it may not even matter. Rodgers has had some nice moments this year, but has been pretty pedestrian overall. He has released the ball quickly to avoid getting hit, which I imagine is what most 41-year-old quarterbacks would do. Mason Rudolph took over for an injured Rodgers last week and was better in a small sample size.

If I were rooting for the Steelers, I’d prefer Rudolph, at least in the short term. There’s a better chance Rudolph will take advantage of the injuries in Chicago’s secondary, though that may not be applicable moving forward. The Bears were down their top two cornerbacks and best safety against the Vikings, but there’s a chance Jaylon Johnson and Jaquan Brisker will be back for this week’s game. Still, Chicago doesn’t project too great against the pass because it has the worst pressure rate in the NFL.

The Bears’ ability to stop the run will also be contingent on an injured player potentially returning to the field. Chicago is far worse versus the rush when T.J. Edwards misses time. Edwards has been out the past two weeks, but he wasn’t placed on injured reserve, so perhaps he’ll return this Sunday.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Like the Bears, Pittsburgh’s secondary has been rocked by injuries. A number of safeties were sidelined, forcing Jalen Ramsey to move to the position. Then, a bunch of cornerbacks got hurt. I loved the Bengals for this reason last week, but Joe Flacco played like decrepit trash for some reason. As speculated earlier, perhaps that’s because he’s 40 and his body is breaking down.

Nevertheless, the Bears would project well against Pittsburgh’s defensive backfield, but Darius Slay should at least be back from his concussion. The Steelers generate much more quarterback pressure than the Bears, so Caleb Williams seems to have a tougher matchup than his counterparts in this game.

The Bears will be able to move the chains on the ground, regardless of who is on the field. The Steelers are 22nd versus the rush, and we know that Ben Johnson loves to run the ball, so D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai figure to perform on a high level.

RECAP: I’d be willing to take a shot on the Steelers if the Bears continue to have injuries to their defensive backs and linebackers. I made this line Chicago -1.5, so Pittsburgh +3 looks mildly appealing. However, if Johnson and Edwards return, the Steelers won’t have any positive matchups.

Otherwise, I don’t imagine that I’ll be betting this game. Both teams are severely overrated, and while Chicago might have the best edge in this matchup with its rushing attack, laying three points with the Bears versus a competent opponent isn’t too appetizing.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Aaron Rodgers didn’t practice Wednesday, but I’d say that favors the Bears because Mason Rudolph was better than Rodgers last week. Conversely, the Bears had a number of defensive players who were DNP on Wednesday. We’ll have to see how the injury report looks later in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: We still don’t know if Aaron Rodgers is going to play. He didn’t practice fully all week, so it’s hard to believe that he’s 100 percent. I would ordinarily jump on the Bears versus an injured quarterback, but they have major defensive injuries. They’re going to be down their top three linebackers, as well as some defensive backs. Chicago’s linebackers heading into this week have played a grand total of 18 snaps, so if Mason Rudolph starts in place of Rodgers, I will have interest in betting on Pittsburgh.

SATURDAY NOTES II: We still don’t know Aaron Rodgers’ status yet, but we know that Jaylon Johnson won’t play, so Chicago will have severe issues at linebacker and defensive back.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No sharp movement here. Aaron Rodgers is out, which makes the Steelers look like a good play. The Bears are down their top three linebackers and top two cornerbacks, and their pass rush is the worst in the NFL. For some reason, you can get a clean +3 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.5.

Computer Model: Bears -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Steelers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 63% (87,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Steelers are 31-19 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 50 instances.

Mike Tomlin is 65-38 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Bears -1.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Chance of rain, 43 degrees. Light wind.