2025 NFL Picks – Week 12: Buccaneers at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted live bets during Week 11, including Justin Fields over rushing yards. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: All Baker Mayfield did early in the season was win games, but that hasn’t been the case lately; he’s lost three of his previous four games. It’s not that he’s played worse, but his schedule has been more difficult. It doesn’t get any easier against the Rams.

The Rams have a stellar defense that will give Mayfield some problems. They have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL that just forced Sam Darnold into four interceptions. The talented front seven will hurry Mayfield, who still doesn’t have a healthy receiver corps at his disposal. This was fine when playing other teams in the NFC South or the other bad opponents earlier in the year, but it’s not good enough versus superior competition.

The Buccaneers could struggle to run the ball as well. Sean Tucker trampled Buffalo’s defense, but the Rams are much better versus ground attacks for the most part. Mayfield will have to do a lot in this game, which sounds perilous against this defense.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Ask most fans, and they’ll tell you that the Buccaneers have one of the top run defenses in the NFL. This is because they’ve built a reputation on putting the clamps on the run with Vita Vea. However, it’s apparent that Vea is not healthy. He’s been on the injury report with a back problem for several weeks, which would explain why Tampa Bay is just 21st versus the rush.

Kyren Williams may not project well for most people, but he should have a strong performance. We’ve seen so many runners have success against the Buccaneers in recent weeks, and Williams should be the next one.

Williams’ rushing will make life easier for Matthew Stafford. The veteran quarterback is enjoying an MVP-caliber season, and he’ll be able to pick up where another MVP candidate, Josh Allen, left off last week. The Buccaneers aren’t getting as much pressure on the quarterback recently with Vea banged up and Haason Reddick missing time, so Stafford will enjoy much more time in the pocket than he had versus Seattle.

RECAP: Buccaneer fans are probably sick of me saying this, but their team simply has not performed well when stepping up in competition. They were blown out by the Eagles until garbage time. They lost by 15 to the Lions. They suffered a loss to the Patriots at home. And despite the Bills making countless mistakes last week, they still ultimately lost by double digits. Even last year, the Buccaneers were dismantled by the Ravens on a Monday night.

The Rams certainly count as higher competition. They just beat the Seahawks and are currently slotted No. 2 in my NFL Power Rankings. I have them in Group A, while the Buccaneers are firmly in Group C. This means the Rams would be seven-point favorites on a neutral field. Yet, they’re not even favored by seven at home!

Speaking of being at home, the Rams will benefit from Circadian rhythms. East Coast teams, especially those that are inferior in talent, often have trouble playing night games on the road. I can’t give you data specifically for the Rams because they haven’t played too many night games since moving back to Los Angeles, but there’s a long track record of this, and you can Google this phenomenon if you want to read more about it.

I’d love the Rams here, but they’re coming off such a huge win against the Seahawks. How focused could they possibly be against the Buccaneers? Perhaps they’ll be 100-percent focused, but I have my doubts. Thus, I’m limiting the Rams to just a two-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Six Buccaneers were listed with “illness” on Wednesday’s injury report, which could mean that the flu is circulating Tampa Bay’s locker room. This would make fading the Buccaneers even more appealing.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s not ideal that the Rams have Rob Havenstein on injured reserve, but the Buccaneers have more injuries with Jamel Dean, Haason Reddick and some others sidelined as well. There’s also the flu; apparently, 15 Buccaneer players dealt with the flu this week. None are listed as out, but they could be sapped of energy.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’ve decided not to bet this game because this is a bad spot for the Rams, given that they’re coming off such a big victory.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t bet this game, and thankfully, neither will I. We would’ve had a decent day today if we didn’t get back doored by both the Bengals and Titans. What garbage. Anyway, if you’re still betting tonight’s game, the best line is -7 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Rams are coming off a huge win versus the Seahawks.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -6.

Computer Model: Rams -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Tons of action on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 71% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Road Team is 149-102 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 10-31 SU on the West Coast in franchise history.

Todd Bowles is 2-6 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Rams -6.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.