2025 NFL Picks – Week 12: Panthers at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Frangaysco where the 49ers will take on the Carolina Hurricanes. Guys, I am still on furlough, but because we’re in this stupid city, the prison warden told me that I have to bring my prison roommate with me because he’s from this stupid San Fangaysco city and the judge routinely releases prisoners so they can commit more crimes, and, I quote, “Have sex with other men’s butts that are clean because they’re not in prison.” Guys, I don’t understand. Can someone tell me what sex is? I’ve traveled out of prison for miles, and anyone I ask just laughs at me.

Emmitt: Thanks, Miles. I guess your father Miles Sr. never told you about the bird and the Brees. My father, Emmitt Sr. the Emmitt the VII Esq. VIII telled me once that sexual mean that you have the bird who fly and the Brees who sting, and when you combine guy who fly and guy who sting in the same sentence, you gonna have sexual which is where baby comed fromed.

Reilly: Emmitt, first of all, my dad’s name isn’t Miles Sr. My New Daddy’s name is New Daddy, and he hasn’t gotten around to the talk about the birds and the Brees yet. And second, you’re wrong about where babies come from. Mother told me that she got me at a cabbage patch, which is why I have no real dad. Mother says that this makes me special. But New Daddy, can you tell me about the birds and the Brees?

Jay Cutler: The Eagles are playing the Saints today? That’s cool.

Reilly: New Daddy, didn’t you hear me say that the Carolina Hurricanes are playing the 49ers? And don’t you realize how happy I would be if I got to announce my Philadelphia Eagles? Why don’t you ever listen to me, New Daddy!? Why don’t you tell me about the birds and the Brees!?

Tollefson: Reilly, I’m the expert here, so I’ll tell you about the birds and the Brees. When you kidnap a woman at the local bar and force her to be your slave, she’s the bird because you’ve basically trapped her in a cage like some bird even though, let’s face it, she totally wants to be there. And then you’re the Brees because when you have lots of female slaves, you are a very cool guy like some quarterback.

Reilly: That makes so much sense. Thank you for your expertise as always, Tolly. I guess I won’t be participating in the birds and the Brees. It sounds very nice for all parties involved, except Mother and me because Mother says I’ll have seven years of bad luck if I talk to girls because they’re the devil. I can only do so in a work environment, so I can tell Clarissa Thompkins that I would love to kidnap her and turn her into a female slave, but then that wouldn’t qualify as work anymore. Clarissa, what do you have to say?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Work. I have some breaking news to reveal. Tonight will be the first football game between a team on the East Coast and a team on the West Coast in NFL history as a result of people surviving the Oregon Trail. Back to you, Work.

Reilly: HEY, MY NAME IS NOT WORK! AT LEAST EMMITT IS USING REAL NAMES! CLARISSA, AS REVENGE, I’M GOING TO KIDNAP YOU ONE DAY AND MAKE YOU MY FEMALE SLAVE WHEN MOTHER IS AT BINGO NIGHT!

Mina Kimes: Kevin, this is the most toxic environment I’ve ever been in. All this talk about female slavery is very misogynistic. And it’s all because you hate Asian female NFL analysts. Why doesn’t anyone talk about kidnapping me and being a female slave? Is it because I’m an Asian NFL analyst who can talk better ball than anyone in this room? Only I’ve said that Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback. Have any of your precious female slaves ever said such great analysis? What about beating quarters coverage over the top? No female slave in world history has ever said such bold and sharp things. But no one dares to make me a female slave because no one can handle an Asian female NFL analyst.

Reilly: Mila, no offense, but you’d make a horrible female slave because you talk too much and don’t appreciate Nick Foles bobbleheads.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST SAY THAT A WOMAN TALKS TOO MUCH AND DOESN’T LIKE NICK FOLDS BOBBLEHEAD DOLLS!? THIS IS SO TOXIC. EVERY CULTURED PERSON KNOWS THAT WOMEN APPRECIATE NICK FOLDS BOBBLEHEAD DOLLS MORE THAN ANY CIS WHITE MALE! YOU’RE SAYING THEY DON’T LIKE THEM BECAUSE YOU’RE A SEXIST PIG!

Reilly: This is work, so I can talk to you, Sarah. You’re so negative all the time. It’s not Nick Folds, but Nick Foles. What do you think Nick Foles is when you say Nick Folds, a folding chair or something!?

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about folding chairs, Kevin. Let’s talk about other types of chairs, Kevin. We can start with the wingback, Kevin. Next is the club, Kevin. How about we move on to the bistro, Kevin? Try the egg on for size, Kevin. What about the Louis, Kevin? Next on the list is wishbone, Kevin. Why not share your thoughts on the desk chair, Kevin? Now we can transition to Eames, Kevin. Last but not least, there’s the Kevin chair, Kevin, because people sit on your all the time, Kevin.

Reilly: That insult doesn’t even make any sense, loser! How about the Charles Davis chair, which is a chair that is dumb and makes stupid insults! We’ll be back right after this!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Though the 49ers are still missing prominent personnel on the defensive side of the ball, their fans were at least able to watch their starting quarterback once again last week. Mac Jones did a solid job filling in for Brock Purdy, but Purdy was excellent against the Cardinals He threw nearly as many touchdowns as incompletions in a lopsided affair.

Arizona’s defense is ranked 12th, so it’s not like Purdy had an easy matchup in his first game back from injury. This matchup is much easier. The Panthers are 24th in defensive EPA. Their pass defense has been woeful for most of the year, so it was not a surprise that Drake London accumulated 100-plus receiving yards in the opening half of the Atlanta game. Purdy should be able to attack the Panthers with ease, especially with George Kittle.

Of course, Purdy won’t have to do everything. Christian McCaffrey figures to have a big game as well. Bijan Robinson tallied 100 total net yards in the first half alone last week, so imagine what McCaffrey will be able to do.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young is often a dreadful quarterback, but that wasn’t the case last week. Young torched the Falcons mercilessly in the second half, generating a comeback from down 21-10 despite battling a solid pass defense. It seems unlikely, however, that Young would suddenly become an incredible quarterback overnight; he was abysmal the prior week versus the horrible Saints pass defense, after all. It’s more likely that Young’s great performance was the byproduct of the Falcons being jetlagged from their 11-hour flight from Germany.

Young probably will regress, but it certainly benefits him that the 49ers defense is so ravaged by injury. Their replacement for Fred Warner is now even injured, while the pass rush isn’t great because of Nick Bosa’s absence. Young should have some time to locate Tetairoa McMillan, though I don’t exactly have confidence that he can take advantage of these liabilities.

The 49ers have at least held up against the run. This will be helpful in containing Young if he’s somehow able to continue his high level of play. They rank 10th versus ground attacks, so being able to limit Rico Dowdle will make things more difficult for Young.

RECAP: Anyone who asks me to believe in Young suddenly being a great quarterback after just one game might as well try to sell me beachfront property in Nebraska. Young isn’t too far removed from scoring just seven points against the Saints. Carolina couldn’t even hit 17 points in a couple of their victories. I don’t think he’s going to have another big game against a well-coached San Francisco defense that holds up well against the run. Meanwhile, San Francisco should be able to score easily against the Panthers’ 24th-ranked defense.

There’s no doubt that the 49ers are the superior team despite the records of these teams being very similar. They also happen to be in the superior spot for two reasons. First, the Panthers are coming off a victory, which puts them close to auto-fade territory. Bad teams – and I consider the Panthers to be a bad team – tend to struggle off victories. We saw this the last time Carolina won. The Panthers lost 17-7 to the Saints following their upset over the Packers. They’re 2-3 against the spread this year following a defeat, and one of the victories happened to be against another bad team off a victory.

The second issue for the Panthers is that they’re an Eastern team playing a night game on the West Coast. They’ll be impacted by Circadian rhythms. This is something not talked about often, but has impacted Eastern teams in these situations, especially when they’re the inferior squad on the field. If you want actual numbers behind it, the 49ers are 10-5 against the spread when favored in Monday night home games against East Coast teams dating back to 1989.

It’s not a perfect spot for the 49ers – I wish they were coming off a loss – but with nothing to look ahead to, the 49ers should be able to take care of business at home against an overrated team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There hasn’t been an injury report, but it was great to hear Andy agree with me that the 49ers are one of the top picks this week. Have a listen:

SATURDAY NOTES: Neither of Carolina’s primary linebackers has practiced yet this week. If both are out, Kyle Shanahan is going to have a field day exposing Carolina’s weaknesses over the middle of the field.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Both of Carolina’s primary linebackers are out. This may be why the sharps bet the 49ers at -7.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The 49ers have struggled against tight ends since losing Fred Warner. Ja’Tavion Sanders looks good in this matchup. The best number is over 16.5 receiving yards -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

We’re staying on DraftKings for our same-game parlay. We’re going with Ja’Tavion Sanders over 16.5 receiving yards, Christian McCaffrey over 48.5 receiving yards, and George Kittle over 58.5 receiving yards. This $25 parlay is boosted 20 percent and pays $157.50.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been sharp money on both sides of this game, with the pros betting on the 49ers -7 and Panthers +7.5. The best line is -7 -120 at both DraftKings and BetMGM. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The Panthers are a bad team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -6.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Decent lean on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 65% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

49ers are 44-33 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Clear, 57 degrees. Light wind.