NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2025 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2025): 8-6 (-$545)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,260)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2025): 5-9-1 (-$480)
2025 NFL Picks: 91-82-3 (-$935)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

---

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 23, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 11 Analysis: We started well on Thursday, but Sunday was a disaster. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Patriots, 3 units (win): Not only did we hit with the Patriots -12.5, we also won with Justin Fields rushing overs.

Packers, 5 units (push): I can’t believe we managed only a push in this promising matchup. Jameis Winston had several dropped interceptions, but the Packers couldn’t capitalize. Josh Jacobs getting hurt didn’t help matters.

Bills, 3 units (win): The Bills fell behind early, but came through in the second half. Josh Allen was incredible off a loss.

Bengals, 5 units (loss): The Bengals looked like they’d have a good chance to cover the +5.5 until Joe Flacco threw a back-breaking pick-six. Flacco was terrible all game despite going up against an injury-ravaged secondary. I don’t understand how he suddenly became so bad. Maybe his 40-year-old body has taken too many hits? If so, he should be a fade moving forward.

Vikings, 4 units (loss): Wow. J.J. McCarthy sucks. I thought the Vikings would have a huge edge with their receivers against Chicago’s injury-ridden secondary, but it doesn’t matter when the quarterback is absolute garbage. I can’t bet the Vikings again unless they’re large underdogs or battling another terrible quarterback.

Ravens, 3 units (loss): In Week 10, we bet the Browns and the Jets team total under, but that lost because the Browns surrendered 14 points on special teams. This past week, we faded the Browns and bet their team total under, and yet they were the team to score 13 points off special teams and defense. Can we get a f**king break with this special teams nonsense? Every week we get screwed by it and never benefit! Had the Ravens allowed just one fewer point on special teams, we would have been profitable for the week.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen endured some struggles in the first half against the Buccaneers. It looked like the Bills were going to lose their second consecutive game to a Florida team, but Allen played on an MVP level in the second half, finishing with three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns.

Allen will have his work cut out for him in this game. The Texans have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, so Allen won’t be able to do much aerially, especially with Dalton Kincaid sidelined. Allen will see lots of pressure from Houston’s front as well, so he’ll need to use his legs once again to escape pressure.

The Texans are worse against the run than the pass, but only by default. They’re fifth versus the rush compared to being fourth against the pass, so there won’t be any opportunities for James Cook to find consistent running room.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: We know that the Texans will be able to run the ball. That’s because everyone has moved the chains on the ground against the Bills. Buffalo is a woeful 29th against the run. Sean Tucker just looked like the second coming of Adrian Peterson against them last week.

There’s a chance the Bills will improve versus the rush eventually. One of the big problems is that Matt Milano is not nearly 100 percent. He’s laboring through an injury, so perhaps he’ll get healthier as the season progresses. It’s unlikely, however, that he’ll be substantially better on just three days of rest. Thus, Woody Marks could have the best game of his young, professional career.

Marks will need to have a big game if C.J. Stroud is sidelined again. Stroud has now missed two games with a concussion, and this could end up being the third because he won’t have nearly as much time to be cleared. Davis Mills has had his ups and downs thus far, but he’ll be in a much tougher passing matchup than what he experienced against the Jaguars and Titans the past two weeks.

RECAP: My rule for Thursdays is to back the better team as long as they’re focused. The thinking is that the inferior team doesn’t have enough preparation time to formulate a good game plan against the superior foe.

The Bills are better than the Texans, but winning by margin in this environment could be tricky. Houston has a stellar defense, and the unit befuddled Allen in a matchup last year. If Allen performs similarly against Houston’s top-five defense, then this could be a low-scoring game that’ll lend itself to the underdog covering.

Either way, I don’t plan on betting this contest. Thursday games are always wonky and terribly played, but I’m leaning toward Houston, regardless of Stroud’s status.

Our Week 12 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bills are now favored by six. It’s nice that we’re getting a more favorable number with the Texans, but I still don’t want to bet this game because it’s a stupid Thursday night affair.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: BetMGM has a $20 no-sweat bet for tonight’s game, so we’re going to bet Woody Marks over 62.5 rushing yards -110 because Buffalo’s run defense is so horrendous.

FanDuel is offering a 30-percent boost on a same-game parlay. We’re going with Marks over 62.5 rushing yards, JayDen Higgins over 28.5 receiving yards, and Dalton Schultz under 39.5 receiving yards. This $25 parlay pays $152.61. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Keon Coleman is a healthy scratch once again. That won’t affect the gambling aspect of this game, but just in case you wanted to play him in DFS. At any rate, the sharps are on the Texans at +6 and +5.5. The only place where you can still get +5.5 -110 is at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -2.5.

Computer Model: Bills -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 77% (223,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bills -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It’s unclear if Aaron Rodgers will play in this game, but it may not even matter. Rodgers has had some nice moments this year, but has been pretty pedestrian overall. He has released the ball quickly to avoid getting hit, which I imagine is what most 41-year-old quarterbacks would do. Mason Rudolph took over for an injured Rodgers last week and was better in a small sample size.

If I were rooting for the Steelers, I’d prefer Rudolph, at least in the short term. There’s a better chance Rudolph will take advantage of the injuries in Chicago’s secondary, though that may not be applicable moving forward. The Bears were down their top two cornerbacks and best safety against the Vikings, but there’s a chance Jaylon Johnson and Jaquan Brisker will be back for this week’s game. Still, Chicago doesn’t project too great against the pass because it has the worst pressure rate in the NFL.

The Bears’ ability to stop the run will also be contingent on an injured player potentially returning to the field. Chicago is far worse versus the rush when T.J. Edwards misses time. Edwards has been out the past two weeks, but he wasn’t placed on injured reserve, so perhaps he’ll return this Sunday.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Like the Bears, Pittsburgh’s secondary has been rocked by injuries. A number of safeties were sidelined, forcing Jalen Ramsey to move to the position. Then, a bunch of cornerbacks got hurt. I loved the Bengals for this reason last week, but Joe Flacco played like decrepit trash for some reason. As speculated earlier, perhaps that’s because he’s 40 and his body is breaking down.

Nevertheless, the Bears would project well against Pittsburgh’s defensive backfield, but Darius Slay should at least be back from his concussion. The Steelers generate much more quarterback pressure than the Bears, so Caleb Williams seems to have a tougher matchup than his counterparts in this game.

The Bears will be able to move the chains on the ground, regardless of who is on the field. The Steelers are 22nd versus the rush, and we know that Ben Johnson loves to run the ball, so D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai figure to perform on a high level.

RECAP: I’d be willing to take a shot on the Steelers if the Bears continue to have injuries to their defensive backs and linebackers. I made this line Chicago -1.5, so Pittsburgh +3 looks mildly appealing. However, if Johnson and Edwards return, the Steelers won’t have any positive matchups.

Otherwise, I don’t imagine that I’ll be betting this game. Both teams are severely overrated, and while Chicago might have the best edge in this matchup with its rushing attack, laying three points with the Bears versus a competent opponent isn’t too appetizing.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Aaron Rodgers didn’t practice Wednesday, but I’d say that favors the Bears because Mason Rudolph was better than Rodgers last week. Conversely, the Bears had a number of defensive players who were DNP on Wednesday. We’ll have to see how the injury report looks later in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: We still don’t know if Aaron Rodgers is going to play. He didn’t practice fully all week, so it’s hard to believe that he’s 100 percent. I would ordinarily jump on the Bears versus an injured quarterback, but they have major defensive injuries. They’re going to be down their top three linebackers, as well as some defensive backs. Chicago’s linebackers heading into this week have played a grand total of 18 snaps, so if Mason Rudolph starts in place of Rodgers, I will have interest in betting on Pittsburgh.

SATURDAY NOTES II: We still don’t know Aaron Rodgers’ status yet, but we know that Jaylon Johnson won’t play, so Chicago will have severe issues at linebacker and defensive back.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No sharp movement here. Aaron Rodgers is out, which makes the Steelers look like a good play. The Bears are down their top three linebackers and top two cornerbacks, and their pass rush is the worst in the NFL. For some reason, you can get a clean +3 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.5.

Computer Model: Bears -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

The Steelers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 63% (87,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Steelers are 31-19 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 50 instances.

Mike Tomlin is 65-38 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Bears -1.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Chance of rain, 43 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 15-29 heading into Week 11.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Ravens -7.5

Cowboys -3.5

Lions +2.5

Packers -7

Seahawks +3

Chargers -3

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Browns +3.5

Bills -5.5

Steelers +3

Eagles -3.5

Only the Browns are surprising. Who’s betting on them, Josina Anderson on thousands of accounts?

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens-Browns game was tilting last week because we bet Baltimore -7.5, yet the Browns scored 13 points on special teams and defense. The Ravens failed to cover by half a point, so the game was extremely frustrating. Part of the horrible experience was watching Lamar Jackson struggle through an injury. Jackson was dealing with some sort of knee issue throughout the week, and it clearly affected him because he scrambled only twice and wasn’t overly effective as a passer.

There’s no telling when Jackson will be 100 percent. It could be this week. If so, he’ll be able to run circles around the Jets’ hapless defense. New York’s secondary has taken some hits with its traded cornerbacks, so Jackson’s receivers won’t have any issues getting open.

The Ravens should at least be able to run the ball effectively on the Jets. New York’s run defense is ranked 19th for the entire year, and most of those games were with Quinnen Williams. The Jets figure to be worse against the run without the stud defensive tackle.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets don’t have an injured quarterback, but they’ve decided to make a change at the position. Despite Justin Fields leading the team to their only two victories of the season in the past three games, Aaron Glenn has decided to go with Tyrod Taylor.

Taylor is a middling backup, but he doesn’t possess the upside of Fields. While Fields is a poor passer, he can at least escape pressure. That could be the only way to beat the Ravens, who have been ranked second in defensive EPA since all of the starters returned from injury following the Week 7 bye. Taylor can be more accurate than Fields, but he won’t be able to do anything more than dink and dunk against Baltimore’s healthy defense.

The Ravens have made the most improvements to their ability to stop the run. They were constantly gashed prior to the bye, but are now ranked in the top 10 of rush defense since Week 8. They’ve put the clamps on De’Von Achane and the Chicago duo, so they shouldn’t have issues containing Breece Hall, especially when considering that they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage because of Taylor’s inability to beat anyone deep.

RECAP: I promise I’ll have plenty of bets this week, but this is yet another zero-unit selection. Both sides seem unappealing. On one hand, I don’t want to back the Jets because they are trash, and I’m not sure the players will be too enthused with the quarterback change, considering that Fields has been responsible for two wins in the past three games. It’s not like Fields played poorly against the Patriots. The players have to know that their coach, front office, and ownership aren’t putting them in the best position to win. Players don’t often quit for a long period of time because they are basically mercs playing for paychecks, but they can quit for one game in these circumstances.

On the other hand, it’s hard to lay two touchdowns with a team that has an injured quarterback. There’s a chance Jackson will be 100 percent by kickoff, but we don’t know that. I’d like to see Jackson scramble effectively before backing him, especially as a large favorite. Also, the Ravens have to play on Thanksgiving night against a divisional rival, so there could be a look-ahead factor after four consecutive victories.

I don’t really want to side with the stupid Jets, so I’m going to back the Ravens for no units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Ravens suddenly have some injuries. Lamar Jackson was DNP on Wednesday with an ankle, which is interesting because he was listed with a knee in last week’s practice. Also, the Ravens didn’t have Kyle Hamlton, Roquan Smith, or Ronnie Stanley in Wednesday’s practice. If the Ravens continue to miss players in practice, I may switch to the Jets, albeit for no units.

SATURDAY NOTES: There were some injury concerns for the Ravens two days ago, but no one has an injury designation anymore. So much for that! Still, Lamar Jackson may not be healthy, so it’s difficult to lay the -13.5 with Baltimore.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, likely because they don’t know if Lamar Jackson is healthy. The best line is -13.5 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Ravens play against the Bengals in four days.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -14.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -13.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Decent lean on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 72% (88,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Lamar Jackson is 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 10+.

Opening Line: Ravens -14.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 51 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s something from Twitter:

It’s true. Counting the vig, he would have been down. No wonder he’s so mad!

Many of you may have seen DEI reporter Josina Anderson tweet storm on Sunday. All she did was tweet about Shedeur Sanders and make excuses for him. Someone you guys know texted me, “Is Josina Anderson sleeping with Deion?”

Check out Anderson’s idiotic posts if you get the chance. I did, and I replied to her:

She quickly blocked me. I was initially shocked that a brain-damaged individual like Anderson knew where the block button was, but now I’m wondering if she even knew what “imbecile” meant.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: As of Tuesday afternoon, we don’t have a firm update on Jaxson Dart. The current status of New York’s starting quarterback is that he’s still in concussion protocol, but the coaching staff is confident that he’ll be available. This doesn’t mean much, however, because if I had a nickel for every time I heard someone be confident about a player’s or their status, and then the player in question would miss the game, I’d have a s**t ton of nickels.

Dart’s availability is obviously paramount in handicapping this game. He’s so explosive with his legs that he fundamentally changes the offense when he’s on the field as opposed to Jameis Winston. Granted, Winston kept the Giants close against the Packers last week, but he was very fortunate that he wasn’t intercepted on numerous occasions.

Dart likely won’t have as many potential turnovers despite battling a tough defense because the Lions, despite ranking second in defense, aren’t very good against the run. They also tend to struggle against scrambling quarterbacks.

DETROIT OFFENSE: While the Lions aren’t very good against the run this season, they’re basically the ’85 Bears when it comes to the Giants. New York has been gashed by opposing ground attacks most weeks this season. They rank 31st against the rush.

This is obviously very problematic against the Lions. Jahmyr Gibbs had a big game last week despite battling a stout Philadelphia defense that is second versus the rush. He’s such a dynamic player, and it seems as though Dan Campbell is making sure he’s getting the ball in more favorable situations compared to when Johnnie Morton was calling the plays. I trust Campbell to feed Gibbs the ball often enough to debacle the Giants’ rush defense.

Jared Goff will need Gibbs and David Montgomery to go off because the Giants can bring ample pressure. Goff tends to struggle when opposing teams can place tons of heat on him, as we saw in his loss at Philadelphia. The Giants have quality edge rushers, but Campbell can shield his quarterback from harm by giving him easy down-and-distance situations in this otherwise favorable matchup.

RECAP: It’s impossible to give you a concrete selection just yet because we don’t know Dart’s status. Either way, however, I will be on the Lions. Dart’s availability will only affect the unit size.

If Dart is out, this will be easy. Winston won’t get away with so many potential interceptions this week. The Lions bring loads of pressure and will be able to rattle the veteran quarterback. Their rushing attack, meanwhile, will trample the Giants and force Winston into obvious throwing situations, which will make matters worse. And not only do the Lions possess the matchup edge; they will be looking to rebound off an embarrassing loss on national TV. Dan Campbell is 14-4 against the spread after a defeat since his second season. Detroit will be a big play with Winston starting.

If Dart gets the nod, I’ll still like the Lions, but for a lesser unit count. Dart probably won’t be an interception machine, but he’ll still be coming back from a concussion. Quarterbacks tend to play poorly in their first game off a concussion. It’s not a guarantee that Dart will perform similarly, but he’d still be very difficult to trust in that situation, especially against the league’s No. 2 defense. Plus, with Dart on the field, we’ll be able to back the Lions with a more favorable point spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jaxson Dart was limited in Wednesday’s practice, so it sounds like he’s trending to play. As mentioned, I still would like the Lions if Dart were to get the nod. The fact that Dart isn’t full yet might tell us that his brain is still a bit scrambled from his concussion.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line has jumped to -12.5 or -13 because of the news that Jaxson Dart will be sidelined. However, the Lions’ entire offensive line is questionable. If most of them are out, it’ll be tough to pull the trigger on the Lions, but some of the questionable linemen are guys who have been playing through questionable tags already. The Lions should still look good, but check back Sunday morning once the inactives are posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps jumped on the Lions when Jaxson Dart was announced out. This line got steamed up to -13.5. The best line is Detroit -13.5 -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Lions.

The Lions are coming off an embarrassing loss on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -11.5.

Computer Model: Lions -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Lots of action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 79% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Dan Campbell is 14-4 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Lions are 9-11 ATS before their Thanksgiving game since 2005.

Opening Line: Lions -9.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I would have felt much differently about this matchup a few weeks ago. Back when Joe Flacco was torching the opposition with his two stud receivers, the Bengals would have looked like a team that could hang around with the Patriots and perhaps achieve a back-door cover. Even an upset would have been on the table.

That’s not the case any longer, as things have greatly changed for a couple of reasons. First, Flacco looked incredibly decrepit in an easy matchup against the Steelers. His pick-six in a close game was absolutely pathetic. As speculated earlier, there’s a chance Flacco’s body is breaking down because he’s too old. Second, to make matters worse, Ja’Marr Chase won’t be available because he spit on an opposing player. With Chase suspended, Flacco won’t be able to force feed the ball to his No. 1 receiver, which is what he’s been doing the entire time since taking over for Jake Browning.

The Bengals won’t be able to run very successfully either. The Patriots are a decent 11th against the rush, and with Chase sidelined, they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Bengals also have severe issues on this side of the ball. They already owned one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and now they’ll have to continue to operate without their best defensive player, Trey Hendrickson, who is considered doubtful.

With Hendrickson sidelined, the Bengals don’t stand a chance of generating pressure. This will be very problematic because Drake Maye is playing on an MVP level. The Bengals couldn’t even contain Mason Rudolph last week, or Justin Fields prior to the bye. How will they deal with Maye?

The answer to that question is that they won’t. They’ll also have issues against TreVeyon Henderson because they have the worst run defense in the NFL.

RECAP: The Patriots were favored by seven on Monday. The sharps wasted no time betting them up to -8. And it’s easy to see why. The Bengals’ offense has taken a couple of major hits lately with Flacco regressing and Chase being suspended. Meanwhile, the defense will somehow have to stop Maye without Hendrickson. If this wasn’t enough, the Patriots also have extra rest because they are coming off a mini-bye.

On top of all that, we’re getting a low line. The Patriots should be favored by double digits, but I guess casual bettors haven’t figured out how horrible the Bengals are yet. This will be a huge wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is a bummer, but Joe Burrow was full in practice on Wednesday. Even crazier is that Joe Flacco was limited with a shoulder, so Burrow was actually the healthier quarterback. I will not be betting a huge amount – or really any amount – on the Patriots if Burrow returns, but we’ll have to see what the spread is.

SATURDAY NOTES: For the first time all week, there was some pessimism regarding Joe Burrow. Despite Burrow practicing fully on Wednesday and Thursday, he was limited on Friday. Joe Flacco, conversely, went from limited on Wednesday and Thursday, and then full on Friday. I’ll be betting the Patriots if Flacco starts, and I might be on the Bengals if it’s Burrow.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Joe Burrow will not play in this game. It’ll be an injured Joe Flacco with no Ja’Marr Chase, and no Trey Hendrickson on the other side. The Patriots look great.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I thought the sharps might come in on the Patriots when the Joe Burrow announcement came, but we didn’t see that. I guess I’m the only person who noticed how bad Joe Flacco has been since hurting his shoulder. The best line is -7 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -10.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -5.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -10.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Plenty of action on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 75% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Patriots -5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Sunny, 49 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks had a miserable game against the Rams. It’s wild that they managed to cover with Sam Darnold throwing four interceptions. It just shows that you can handicap a game perfectly and still manage to lose. If I had any action on the Rams, I would have been way more frustrated than I already am.

Darnold won’t have the same issues in this game. His problem is that he crumbles under pressure, with his completion percentage dropping more than 30 percent. Luckily for Darnold, the Titans have one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL. He’ll have all day to find Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Rashid Shaheed for big gains.

The Titans are also one of the worst teams at stopping the run, ranking in at 27th in that regard. This is obviously detrimental against a Seattle offense that loves to run the ball with multiple backs.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Speaking of things being detrimental for the Titans, it’s hard to imagine them having any sort of offensive success in this game for a variety of reasons. Cam Ward is the primary issue here, as he projects very poorly against the Seahawks.

The Broncos currently have the most pressures in the NFL, but the Seahawks have them beat on a pressures-per-game basis. They can overwhelm opposing quarterbacks, and that will be the case with Ward because he holds the ball so long in the pocket. It should not surprise you at all if I tell you that Ward is far worse when pressured as opposed to kept clean. When kept clean, he completes 66.4 percent of his passes on a 6.3 YPA, and he’s thrown for five touchdowns and three interceptions. When pressured, Ward completes 38.3 percent of his passes on a 4.9 YPA, and he’s thrown one touchdown and three interceptions.

Ward won’t be able to lean on the ground attack either. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears have a nightmare matchup against the Seahawks, who happen to be ranked No. 1 against the run.

RECAP: When handicapping the NFL, you should always look for the marriage of matchup and spot. We had that two weeks ago when the Lions battled the Redskins, and we have that here in this contest as well.

The matchup edges are obvious. The Titans have an abysmal defense that won’t stand a chance against Seattle’s offense. Ward melts down under pressure, and the Seahawks get to the quarterback more often than anyone in the NFL. And Seattle’s elite run defense will put the clamps on Tennessee’s runners.

The spot favors the Seahawks as well. They’re coming off a loss and will be looking to rebound from this defeat. They don’t have anything to look forward to either because the Vikings are on deck.

Though the line may seem high, I don’t think it’s high enough. There’s no reason for the Seahawks to be favored by anything less than two touchdowns, so this will be a huge play against the Titans, who are now 6-24 against the spread since Week 1 of 2024.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Luckily, there’s no quarterback returning from the Titans who can ruin a big bet we have on the other side.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Seahawks suddenly have some injury concerns. Everyone has brought up Grey Zabel potentially being out, but I like Seattle’s offensive line depth. However, the Seahawks could be without their top two linebackers. Tyrice Knight is out with a concussion, while Ernest Jones saw his practice participation decline every day this week. I may decrease the size of my bet, though I’d still like Seattle.

PLAYER PROPS: The Seahawks suck against tight ends, so you know what to do. Chig Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is just 21.5 -118 at BetMGM. Luckily, BetMGM has a 20-percent boost up to $100 for the NFL, so we can take this to over 21.5 +101.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Grey Zabel will play, but Ernest Jones will be out. The Seahawks will be without their top two linebackers, and the sharps are on the Titans. I’m going to drop this to three units. The best line is -12 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.

The Seahawks are the better team coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -14.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -12.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -14.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Not enough action on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 83% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Seahawks are 10-17 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.

Titans are 30-23 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Seahawks -12.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Fog, 56 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below. In addition to WalterFootball t-shirts, you can also buy AMC and GameStop stock gear as well!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: If Forrest Gump’s mom were a Packers fan, she would have told her son that life is like Jordan Love, because you never know what you’re going to get. Love can look like the best quarterback of all time with 20 consecutive completions against the Steelers, or he can resemble a complete bust by constantly throwing off his back foot.

We can at least make an educated guess with Love against the Vikings because we saw him struggle against Brian Flores’ defense twice last year. His stats in the 31-29 September loss look fine, but he struggled until garbage time, which nearly turned into an epic comeback. Love was far worse in the second meeting, when he constantly tossed passes off his back foot. As with the first matchup, he struggled early and then nearly pulled off a comeback.

Love had the services of Josh Jacobs in both of those games, but he may not have that luxury this week. Jacobs suffered a knee injury against the Giants that isn’t overly serious, but could cause him to miss this game, especially with another contest coming up in just four days. Emanuel Wilson won’t be nearly as effective versus a Vikings defense that has improved since the return of its injured linebackers.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: As bad as Love may be in this game, he’ll still be the superior quarterback when compared to J.J. McCarthy. The former Michigan was a third-round prospect at best who was a mega reach at No. 10 overall. He has played like a UDFA, with his poor pocket presence and abysmal accuracy. Carson Wentz performed better with a torn labrum.

McCarthy was woeful in an easy matchup last week, so how is he going to handle a tougher challenge? I don’t think it’ll end well for McCarthy, who will be at risk of getting benched at some point.

The Vikings’ only hope of scoring points in this game is if Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason pick up chunks of yards to make things very easy for McCarthy. They’ll have some success because the Packers are 14th against the run, but it won’t be an overly consistent method of moving the chains.

RECAP: I have no interest in this game. We can side with the Packers because they’re the better team, and we’d get to fade McCarthy in the process. However, Love has demonstrated in an inability to perform well against Flores. Also, the Packers have to battle the Lions in four days, so they could be looking past a 4-6 squad.

So, do we take the Vikings? Perhaps for no units, but I can’t bet on them. McCarthy is a disaster. That said, he managed to cover the spread against the Lions as a large underdog, so perhaps he’ll do something similar in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As Andy pointed out on our live stream, the Vikings are better at nearly position:

Quarterback is one of the main exceptions, however, and J.J. McCarthy is absolutely terrible.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Packers will have some linebacker problems this week. Quay Walker will be out, while Edgerrin Cooper continues to deal with a foot injury. The Vikings are worth a look at +6.5, but I wouldn’t want to bet a lot on McCarthy.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No Josh Jacobs for the Packers, but the Vikings won’t have Jonathan Greenard. The sharps haven’t come in on this game. The best line is +6.5 -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Packers.

The Packers take on the Lions in four days.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -6.5.

Computer Model: Packers -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Bets are coming in on the Vikings for some reason.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 62% (77,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Teams have split 4 of the past 5 years.

Packers are 68-45 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 61-47 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -5.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 45 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I was a bit shocked to see that the Chiefs are currently ranked first in offensive EPA. They struggled to do much in their previous two games, yet they’re still considered the best offense in the NFL. I guess it just shows how hot they were when Rashee Rice initially returned from his suspension. Patrick Mahomes was on fire, owning the top fantasy football score amongst all players at his position. He was scrambling a lot, and- wait. Wait a second. What happened to that?

Mahomes has barely scrambled in the past two games. He had one carry against the Bills and one carry against the Broncos. I don’t know what changed, but Mahomes was so willing to pick up first downs with his legs, but he hasn’t bothered to do that at all versus the Bills and Broncos. I initially speculated that Andy Reid was hiding stuff from the Bills because of an impending playoff rematch, but Mahomes’ unwillingness to run in a pivotal divisional matchup was puzzling, to say the least.

It’s unclear if this is the beginning of a new trend, or if it’ll be corrected. But if Mahomes doesn’t scramble, I can’t say I like Kansas City’s chances of scoring consistently against the Colts. Mahomes won’t have one of his primary targets available because of Sauce Gardner’s presence. The Colts also tend to play well against the run, though that’ll be tested by the absence of DeForest Buckner. Still, it’ll be up to Mahomes to take matters into his own hands, or rather legs, and if he doesn’t do so, the Chiefs won’t score very many points.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: While the Chiefs are first in offense, they’re 18th in defense. They’re especially poor against the run, ranking 24th in that department. I don’t need to tell you how detrimental that is for this matchup.

Jonathan aylor, currently the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year, is coming off a stellar performance against the Falcons in which he threatened the single-game rushing record. If the Chiefs’ struggles against the run persist, Taylor will have another terrific output.

The Chiefs will have to sell out to stop the run, and that may not even work. Even if they can limit Taylor a bit, that’ll just open up some great opportunities for Daniel Jones, who can also beat the Chiefs with his legs. I don’t know if Mahomes will scramble, but we know Jones will do so as the upstart underdog in this matchup. Jones will also make good use of Tyler Warren and Alec Pierce, who has been playing much better lately.

RECAP: If Mahomes scrambles just once like he did versus the Bills and Broncos, the Chiefs will have a tough time covering this spread, or even winning this game. The Chiefs went on a 5-1 run following their 0-2 start because Mahomes was running so often, but he has just stopped. I don’t know if it’s because of an undisclosed injury, or lethargy, or maybe it’s because he just forgot. Whatever it is, Kansas City’s success moving forward will be contingent on Mahomes’ legs.

I think this is a game that would be better served betting live rather than pre-game. If we see Mahomes scrambling right away, we’ll know that the Chiefs are putting their full effort into this contest. Conversely, if Mahomes remains stationary in the pocket the entire time, the Colts will be the way to go.

I’m currently going to side with the Colts because of Mahomes’ lack of scrambling and Taylor’s big edge in this game. I won’t place any units on this game yet, but I may bet this live. Follow me @walterfootball for live betting updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: After hearing so many people proclaim, “The Colts should be favored because they’re 8-2 and the Chiefs are 5-5,” I’ve decided that the Chiefs have to be the play, much like they were againt the Lions.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a chance the Colts will get Charvarius Ward back this week, giving them two talented outside cornerbacks. It’ll be tough to throw against them, but Patrick Mahomes can still lead his team to victory if he remembers to scramble again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Chiefs back when they were -3, but not at -3.5. The best line is -3.5 -107 at ESPNBet, but if you want a real sportsbook, it’s -3.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Slight lean on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 63% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 105-30 SU, 71-62 ATS (57-48 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 15-11 ATS after a loss.

Andy Reid is 10-14 ATS two weeks after the bye.

Opening Line: Chiefs -4.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 58 degrees. Light wind.