2025 NFL Picks – Week 12: Eagles at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the 10th part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss my famous sportsbook trek.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I had a nice laugh when Lisa Salters asked Dak Prescott following the Monday night game, “Your offense struggled before the bye, but was explosive in this game. What changed?” Uhh… I don’t know, maybe it was the opponent being the Raiders? The Cowboys had their way with Las Vegas’ 22nd-ranked defense.

Things won’t be so easy against Philadelphia. The Eagles’ fifth-ranked defense won’t allow the Cowboys to go up and down the field on them. In fact, Philadelphia’s defense could continue to improve because the newly acquired Jaelan Phillips is a big difference-maker, and his presence has further enhanced Philadelphia’s pass rush. The Eagles will hound Prescott all afternoon behind a sketchy offensive line.

It’s not like Prescott will be able to hide behind his running game either. The Eagles are second versus the rush, so Javonte Williams won’t find any running lanes. Prescott will have to do it on his own.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Like the Eagles, Dallas bolstered its defense at the trade deadline. Despite being 3-5-1, Jerry Jones acquired Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson. Both played Monday night, and both had an impact in helping the Cowboys improve against the run. Ashton Jeanty didn’t run very much, but the Cowboys still restricted him to single-digit rushing yards.

Containing Saquon Barkley would have been a different animal last year, but the Eagles haven’t been run blocking well for their All-Pro back. Barkley could get swallowed up, forcing Jalen Hurts to beat Dallas’ secondary.

Hurts would normally have a good chance of living up to the challenge, but Lane Johnson is sidelined. The Eagles have a long history of failing to live up to expectations without the All-Pro right tackle. The Cowboys, who can generate decent pressure on the quarterback – even before the trade for Williams – will do a good job of limiting Philadelphia’s offense.

RECAP: I had a far different opinion on this game a week ago. I found myself thinking the Eagles were the play. The Cowboys would be a bad team coming off a short week, so they wouldn’t be able to fully game plan against the Eagles, who were the far superior team. With a great pass-protecting offensive line, the Eagles would be able to neutralize Dallas’ pass rush and give Hurts every opportunity to torch a poor secondary.

Things have changed quite a bit. The Cowboys are better now that they have Williams and Wilson. They’re still not a good team, but I don’t consider them to be a bad team either. They’re right in the middle of the pack at No. 15 in my NFL Power Rankings. Furthermore, the Eagles no longer have an excellent pass-protecting unit because Johnson is sidelined. Philadelphia has a far worse record without Johnson.

I’m going to be on the Cowboys at +3.5. I don’t like them enough to bet them at the moment, but could be talked into a one- or two-unit play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The numbers with and without Lane Johnson are staggering. The Eagles also may not have Cam Jurgens, who missed Wednesday’s practice. I may bet the Cowboys after all.

SATURDAY NOTES: Lane Johnson has officially been ruled out, while Cam Jurgens is questionable. This is a good spot for the Cowboys, who might be worth a small bet if the Eagles are down two offensive linemen.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Cam Jurgens will play, so we will not have a play on this game, barring something unexpected from the inactives list.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money bet the Cowboys at +3.5, but we’ll see if they also bet +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Cowboys. They’ve been betting them at +3.5 and +3. I see only one +3 -110 available, which is at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 59% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Home Team has won 12 of the last 13 meetings (excluding when Eagles sat their starters).

Jalen Hurts is 11-16 ATS as a road favorite.

Dak Prescott is 40-33 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Dome.