Thursday Night Football gets a boost this week with the Bills (7-3) flying into Houston to face the Texans (5-5) in what could be a more compelling matchup than previous weeks. The Bills are locked in on their chase for the AFC East crown and looking to build momentum. The Texans are trending upward, riding two straight wins, but face serious questions heading into a short week.
One key storyline: the Texans’ star quarterback C.J. Stroud remains in concussion protocol and will miss his third straight game, which means backup Davis Mills will get another start. On the other side, the Bills’ offense soared in Week 11 thanks to Josh Allen’s six-touchdown explosion. However, this will be a big test for the Bills’ offense, as the Texans have the best defense in the NFL.
As for the betting board, Buffalo opened as roughly a 3.5-point favorite, but it has shifted to -6.0 after it was announced that Stroud would miss another game. The total is sitting around 43.5 points. Many betting apps offer special NFL promos for TNF games, so be sure to make the most out of your bets.
Let’s dive into my game pick and then break down the prop angles I’m targeting for Thursday night.
Game Pick: Texans +6.0
I think the Bills will come out of Houston with a W, but in an ugly game. In what’s expected to be a low scoring game, it’s hard to pick a team to cover by a touchdown. The Bills offense has been to inconsistent to expect them to run wild against the steller Texans’ defense. They’ll be facing a team that ranks first in points and yards per game allowed, and don’t have an established #1 receiver. James Cook will have to be a focal point, and the Texans will pick up on that. Demeco Ryans has this Texans team fighting despite the injuries, and I expect them to keep this one close.
Josh Allen Over 5.5 Rushing Attempts (-144)
This is going to be a tough test for the reigning MVP. With the amount of pressure that the Texans’ defense brings, I think Josh will be forced into a handful of rushing opportunites. Whether it comes from scrambling or designed runs, the Bills may have to lean on the legs of their star quarterback to generate some offense this game. It also helps that they like to run the “tush-push” in short yardage situations. Allen will be forced out of the pocket often, and likes to lean on his mobility in gritty games.
Keon Coleman Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
There is a lot that I like about this line. Coleman was a healthy scratch last week vs the Bucs, due to a missed practice. Now that he’s served his time, I expect him to make some sort of impact this week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his number called early, drawing up a few plays specifically to get Coleman the ball. As a young player, the Bills should make it a priority to grow Coleman’s confidence. Also, Keon is the primary deep-ball target for the Bills, so its very possible it takes just one reception to clear this low line.
Jayden Higgins Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Higgins is emerging as the WR2 for the Texans, and we probably only have a few weeks left to take advantage of his low betting lines. The last 2 games, Higgins has a combined 9 receptions for 97 yards. Those are the two games that Davis Mills has started, showing the backup QB has some trust in the rookie receiver. With so much attention on Nico Collins, Higgins has an opportunity to carve out a bigger role for himself.
Total Odds on 3-leg SGP: +480
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Running total:
Game Picks ATS: 4-0
Player Props: 6-6
Last Week’s Results:
Patriots -12.5 ✅
Breece Hall O 57.5 Rushing Yards ✅
Hunter Henry O 34.5 Receiving Yards ✅
Mason Taylor U 4.5 Receptions ✅
By Jake Koehler
Jake is a sports betting writer at BettingApps.com, covering the latest sportsbook news, app reviews, promos, and betting features across the NFL and beyond. For the rest of the season, he will provide weekly analysis, predictions, and updates to help readers make smarter bets and stay ahead of the game.
