NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2018



NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,415)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)

NFL Picks (2018): 66-56-6 (+$795)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 28, 11:15 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 8 NFL Picks - Early Games








Indianapolis Colts (2-5) at Oakland Raiders (1-5)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 51.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -1.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Colts -1.
Sunday, Oct 28, 4:05 PM


The Game. Edge: Colts.

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To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady's Haircuts!

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Amari Cooper is gone, and by the way ESPN and NFL Network analysts have been talking, you'd think that he was the greatest receiver of all time. The constantly injured Cooper dropped too many passes, so the Raiders fleeced the Cowboys by obtaining a first-round pick for him. Oakland will be worse off in the short term, however, as it no longer has a viable receiver to threaten the opposition downfield. Jordy Nelson is too old and decrepit, while Martavis Bryant constantly does stupid things. The Colts' cornerbacks can be beaten, but not by Nelson and Bryant.

The offensive line is more important than Cooper, as the health of it could determine the winner of this game. Left tackle Kolton Miller played well to start the year, but has struggled recently because of a knee injury. He was horrible against the Seahawks, but perhaps the bye week allowed him time to heal. Meanwhile, guard Kelechi Osemele will return after missing the Seattle game.

An improved blocking unit will give Derek Carr more time to find Jared Cook, who has a tremendous matchup against an Indianapolis defense that has struggled against talented tight ends this year. It'll also help open up some lanes for Doug Martin, starting for Marshawn Lynch, who has been placed on injured reserve.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Andrew Luck certainly knows the value of a No. 1 receiver. The Colts dropped 19 combined passes in the three games prior to Week 7 because T.Y. Hilton had been injured. That problem was solved this past Sunday, as the sure-handed Hilton caught every single target thrown to him. Luck, whose receivers averaged 6.3 drops per contest in three weeks, had just six incompletions, period!

Hilton didn't have a big stat line versus Buffalo because he had to deal with elite cornerback Tre'Davious White, but the Raiders don't have anyone like that in their secondary. Their cornerbacks are pedestrian, and their safeties stink. They also don't have the pass rush to rattle Luck, who should be able to connect on some deep shots to Hilton.

Meanwhile, Eric Ebron figured to have a big game as well. The Raiders' poor linebackers can't cover at all, so Ebron will dominate. Nyheim Hines should perform on a high level as a receiver out of the backfield as well. Marlon Mack, on the other hand, doesn't have as good of a matchup, as the one thing the Raiders can do relatively well is stop the run. Then again, if Oakland is so focused on the deep ball, there could be some opportunities that open for the second-year back.

RECAP: I planned on betting the Raiders prior to the Cooper trade. Oakland was -1.5 on the advance spread, yet the Colts were suddenly favored because they clobbered a Derek Anderson-quarterbacked team. An overreaction like that was definitely not warranted. With the Raiders getting healthier up front, they were certain to play better following a week off.

Now? I'm not so sure. I don't know what to make of the Cooper deal as far as the team makeup is concerned. Will the Raiders be distracted? It's possible, as there have been new reports about the team not being fully behind Carr. It's possible he could be traded as well. If so, perhaps the Jaguars should make Oakland an offer.

I think these sorts of media stories are typically overblown - remember ESPN thought the Steelers would fall apart because Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown said things about each other? - but this time, it feels a bit different. I'm still going to be on Oakland because of the spread value and improved offensive line, but I don't want to bet this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Marlon Mack may not play, but that doesn't really affect my pick. I'd be wagering on the Raiders if I were confident in their mental makeup in the wake of the Amari Cooper trade and the Derek Carr speculation that his teammates may not respect him.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping to see a healthier Oakland offensive line. Unfortunately, Kelechi Osemele had just one limited practice all week, while Kolton Miller didn't practice fully at all. The Raiders are dysfunctional offensively if they can't block, and I worry about their team's psyche as well.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The juice on this game is -120 for Colts -3. I could see this line moving to -3.5 if the sharps don't start betting on the Raiders.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As predicted, this line has risen to -3.5 because there's no sharp action coming in to counter the public action on the Colts. Oakland will be without Kelechi Osemele, which is bad news for the home dog. I'm still zero on the Raiders. Vegas is taking a massive beating today, and they'll need the Raiders to cover.






The Psychology. Edge: TBA.
I don't know how the Raiders will react to the Amari Cooper trade.


The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Will anyone bet on Oakland after they traded Amari Cooper?
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 68% (16,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • Raiders are 11-36 ATS at home vs. teams with losing records.
  • Opening Line: Pick.
  • Opening Total: 51.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 66 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 8 NFL Pick: Colts 28, Raiders 27
    Raiders +3 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Over 51 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Colts 42, Raiders 28




    San Francisco 49ers (1-6) at Arizona Cardinals (1-6)
    Line: 49ers by 0.5. Total: 41.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -2.5.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Cardinals -7.5.
    Sunday, Oct 28, 4:25 PM


    The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

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    Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2018 NFL Survivor Pool. You have until Sunday to register, so do it soon! Of the 1,225 starting players, we lost 723 because of the Saints and Lions. The Vikings then knocked out a bunch of people, and we're down to just 30 souls remaining, as some were knocked out by the Jaguars losing to Houston.

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    ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals absolutely had to fire offensive coordinator Mike McCoy following that dreadful Thursday night performance, and that's exactly what they did. McCoy had predictable play-calling, put Josh Rosen in bad situations, and failed to utilize David Johnson properly. Why Johnson had just one catch in meaningful action versus a Denver defense that can't defend receiving backs, I have no idea.

    Byron Leftwich will take over as McCoy's replacement. I'm not sure how he'll do, but he can't possibly be worse than McCoy. Perhaps Leftwich will know that he needs to get the ball to Johnson as often as possible, especially considering the state of his offensive line. Having Rosen throw short and intermediate passes to Johnson and Ricky Seals-Jones will work in this matchup, as the 49ers have some dreadful linebackers. Reuben Foster is the one exception, but he looks out of shape, as he apparently did nothing but eat snacks during his suspension.

    The 49ers have issues with their defense elsewhere, particularly at safety. Rosen won't have many instances where he'll be able to take deep shots, but he connected with Christian Kirk on a deep ball the first time he battled San Francisco, so perhaps he'll be able to do that again.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Rosen won't be playing against an experienced quarterback for the first time since, well, he battled C.J. Beathard in Week 5. Beathard struggled mightily in that contest, tossing checkdown after checkdown. Sometimes, Beathard's checkdowns work because he has a couple of talented players at his disposal in George Kittle and Matt Breida. However, Breida is banged up, and he may not last the entire game if he even suits up. Kittle, meanwhile, has a difficult matchup against Arizona's solid linebackers. The Cardinals are excellent against tight ends, so that'll be problematic for the 49ers.

    Meanwhile, the 49ers have just one downfield threat in Marquise Goodwin. Beathard, despite what he did Monday night at Green Bay, doesn't go downfield very often. If he does that in this contest, he could be sorry for challenging Patrick Peterson.

    The one positive aspect the 49ers have on this side of the ball is their ability to protect Beathard. The interior of their line sucks, but the Cardinals get their pressure on the edge with Chandler Jones. Still, this didn't matter very much in the first meeting, when Beathard had difficulty moving the chains.

    RECAP: I don't understand this spread at all. Why is this a pick 'em, and why is the public betting on San Francisco? Don't bother answering because I know the answer to that. It's the same reason why this line moved 2.5 points from the Westgate advance spread, and it's because the Cardinals were crushed on national TV last Thursday.

    Here's the thing: That doesn't matter. Bad teams have a severe advantage on Thursday night because they can't overcome their deficiencies and game plan appropriately on such short rest. We saw this with the Giants as well when the Eagles blew them out, and yet New York was very competitive in Atlanta the following week. The Cardinals, looking to redeem themselves from a humiliating loss, will be much better, especially with the extra rest.

    With all that in mind, my spread is way off. I made this line Arizona -7.5. If that seems crazy to you, consider two things: One, the Cardinals are the better team, and they already beat the 49ers by 10 - in San Francisco! And two, the 49ers have C.J. Boat Hat as their starting quarterback. He sucks and is almost always an automatic fade.

    This is my second-highest pick of the week. I'm on the Cardinals for five units.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The 49ers are now favored, which seems insane to me. I love the Cardinals. I'm thinking of locking in Arizona at +1 -105 at Bovada, but I think we might get a better number.

    SATURDAY NOTES/LOCKED IN: It was to hear new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich say that he wants to involve David Johnson more in the offense. Josh Rosen also sounded more upbeat about what Leftwich is going to bring to the offense. I love the Cardinals here, as they should easily cover this nonsensical spread. I'm going to lock in +0.5 +105, which is available at Bookmaker.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The 49ers are now favored by 2.5, as the public is pounding San Francisco. No sharp money has come in on Arizona, which is just baffling to me.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I can't believe Arizona +2.5 +100 is available. Much like Colts-Raiders, there's no sharp money coming in on the home dog. I still love the Cardinals though. Hopefully Josh Rosen doesn't repeatedly throw interceptions like Joe Flacco and Jameis Winston have done today.


    The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.
    The Cardinals will look to bounce back from an embarrassing loss.


    The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
    No one wants any part of Arizona after that Thursday night loss.
  • Percentage of money on San Francisco: 70% (10,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • History: Cardinals have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Cardinals are 33-16 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Pick.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 8 NFL Pick: Cardinals 27, 49ers 20
    Cardinals +0.5 +105 (5 Units) -- Correct; +$525
    Over 41 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Cardinals 18, 49ers 15






    Green Bay Packers (3-2-1) at Los Angeles Rams (7-0)
    Line: Rams by 8. Total: 57.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -8.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Rams -6.
    Sunday, Oct 28, 4:25 PM


    The Game. Edge: None.

    Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is underway! In Episode 7, the lead investigator offers a suggestion on how to prevent further murders from taking place at Gillette Stadium.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is about how I nearly got into a fight at a Las Vegas water park!

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The last time we saw the Packers, they were struggling to score on the 49ers after a hot start. They couldn't really get their offense going in the middle of the game, though Aaron Rodgers came up big at the end of regulation to lead his team to victory.

    That performance is part of the reason why this spread is so high, but I don't think it should be a factor at all. Green Bay's entire receiving corps was banged up in that contest. Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb were both out, while Davante Adams wasn't 100 percent. Thus, the bye week came at the right time for the Packers. All three receivers had a chance to heal, and Allison and Cobb have already been practicing. All three of Rodgers' receivers will be on the field come Sunday, which is obviously great news. Green Bay has a big advantage with its aerial attack because the Rams' cornerbacks are injured. Aqib Talib has been out, while Marcus Peters isn't anywhere close to being completely healthy. The Rams have gotten away with this because they haven't battled a prolific aerial offense since taking on the Vikings on a Thursday night back in Week 4. The Seahawks, Broncos and 49ers don't throw the ball nearly as well as the Packers do.

    Green Bay will also be able to expose another liability the Rams have. The linebackers struggle to cover, so Jimmy Graham should have a huge game. We saw George Kittle go off last week with five catches for 98 yards and a touchdown, so Graham could have a similar output.

    LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: While the Packers' offense was stagnant during the middle of the San Francisco game, the defense had an embarrassing showing. The inept C.J. Beathard had the game of his life torching the Packers. Green Bay couldn't cover, while its front seven couldn't produce any pressure on the backup quarterback.

    Part of the reason may have been complacency on the Packers' part, given that they were such huge favorites. A bigger factor was the absence of No. 1 cornerback Jaire Alexander. It sounded like the first-round rookie was close to playing against the 49ers, so he'll surely be ready for the Rams game after a week off. This will be huge, as Los Angeles, down a receiver with Cooper Kupp unlikely to play, could use Robert Woods in the slot. Limiting Woods with Alexander would only leave Brandin Cooks to worry about.

    While the Packers aren't very strong against the pass, they handle the run extremely well. I'm sure Todd Gurley will be able to find the end zone at some point, but the Packers should be able to limit him somewhat on the ground. Gurley has been restricted to fewer than 3.6 yards per carry twice, so it's not impossible to stop him. The Seahawks did this most recently, holding him to 77 yards on 22 carries.

    RECAP: This is my October NFL Pick of the Month. I've been monitoring this game for quite some time now, and I was hoping for the Rams to be favored by an insane number. I think +9.5 qualifies as insane.

    Rodgers has never been an underdog by this many points in his career. In fact, he's been a dog of seven-plus just twice, and he covered both instances. I love betting elite quarterbacks when they're getting a crap ton of points, as there's a great chance they'll get a back-door cover if needed.

    The thing is, I'm not sure a back-door cover will be needed. The Rams aren't nearly the same team we saw in the first three weeks of the season when they were beating up on crappy Oakland and Arizona because they've suffered injuries to their receiving corps and cornerbacks. Talib being out and Peters hobbling through an injury are especially relevant against Rodgers, who will have his entire receiving corps intact for the first time since Week 3. Meanwhile, Kupp's absence will limit the Rams' offense. Kupp is Jared Goff's favorite receiver, so his injury shouldn't be taken lightly against superior competition, and the Packers are the toughest team the Rams will have battled since he went down.

    Furthermore, I'm not so sure we'll see the Rams' best effort in this game. They're huge favorites, and they just saw the Packers barely sneak by the 49ers on national TV. I don't think they'll necessarily take Green Bay very seriously, especially with a battle against the Saints coming up next week. That game could be for home-field advantage in the NFC, so it definitely holds a greater priority than this one. The Rams can lose this game and then beat the Saints, and they'll still be in great shape. If they lose to New Orleans, it won't really matter what happens in this game because they may not be in control of their own destiny anymore. I don't think there's any doubt that this contest means much more to the Packers.

    And finally, this spread is way off. The Rams have been inflated because of their hot start versus bad and mediocre competition, but the only team they've covered against since Week 3 was San Francisco. I made this number Los Angeles -6, so the line is 3.5 points too high. This is factoring in the Packers coming off a bye; they're 9-2 against the spread with a week off under Mike McCarthy.

    I'm confident in my eight-unit play on the Packers. I would've loved +10, which was the opening number, but the sharps gobbled that up quickly. Still, +9.5 sounds great, as Rodgers is certain to keep this game within single digits.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Jaire Alexander and Randall Cobb will play, which is great news. I'm hoping to get +10 at -115 or better. The best +10 I can find now is for -120 at 5Dimes.

    SATURDAY NOTES/LOCKED IN: Ugh, I hate that there's so much public action on the Packers. The thing is, the sharps are on the Packers as well. This spread is just too high. There's a good chance this spread keeps falling, so I'm going to lock this in. The best number I can find is +8 -105 at 5Dimes.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line is now down to 7.5. The sharps are moving this line, and it wouldn't surprise me to see -7 prior to kickoff.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I saw a +7 -120 appear for a bit on Bovada, but this line has remained +7.5. The Packers are the one side the sharps are betting on in the late afternoon.


    The Psychology. Edge: Packers.
    The Rams are big favorites, so they'll be looking ahead to battling the Saints next week for home-field advantage in the NFC.


    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    This is public and sharp money on the Packers.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 69% (30,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 83-56 ATS since 2009.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 18-14 ATS as an underdog.
  • Mike McCarthy is 9-2 ATS off a bye.
  • Opening Line: Rams -10.
  • Opening Total: 56.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 76 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 8 NFL Pick: Rams 37, Packers 34
    Packers +8 -105 (8 Units - October NFL Pick of the Month) - 5Dimes -- Correct; +$800
    Over 57.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Rams 29, Packers 27






    New Orleans Saints (5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2-1)
    Line: Saints by 2.5. Total: 54.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -3 +110.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Pick.
    Sunday, Oct 28, 8:20 PM


    The Game. Edge: .

    I'm going to devote this section to Ross Avila. If this is your first time reading this, and you don't know who Ross is, he's a douche who harassed me on Facebook about my picks all last year. Here are some of the things he said:



    He wrote this to me during the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, where he bragged about being right about Atlanta. Oops.

    Ross constantly embarrassed himself throughout the year, including when he posted this, suggesting that he sold picks to people:



    I eventually unfriended Ross. He started going after women on my Facebook page, including my then-fiancee. I warned him, and he didn't listen, so I unfriended him.

    Because I was a big part of Ross' life, he sent me countless messages. I've shown you some already. Check this one out:



    This is from last week, and I'm re-posting it because this Lex bully guy actually e-mailed me! Check it out:



    Call me crazy, but Ross being a creeper with girls would've been a bigger favorite in sportsbooks than Patriots over Cardinals.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees is having one of the best seasons in recent memory. This is remarkable, given that he's 39, but his YPA and completion percentage have been their highest since 2009, which is when he won the Super Bowl. He also hasn't thrown an interception yet, compared to 13 touchdowns. Brees is playing at the top of his game right now, and what he did at Baltimore was remarkable. Battling the best defense in the NFL, Brees converted key third and fourth downs to keep the chains moving.

    The Vikings may have been considered by some to be the best defense in the NFL last year, but that's hardly been the case in 2018. Minnesota still has some stellar players on this side of the ball, but there are some liabilities as well. For instance, the team can't cover the middle of the field at all, so Brees will be able to utilize Alvin Kamara as a receiver out of the backfield and Ben Watson as well. Defending the slot, with talented rookie nickel corner Mike Hughes out, will also be problematic. Now, Xavier Rhodes is hurt. He sprained his ankle late in the afternoon against the Jets. It's not clear if he'll miss this game, but even if he plays, he may not be healthy enough to hang with Michael Thomas.

    Now, the Vikings still do things extremely well. They can pressure the quarterback despite the absence of Everson Griffen, and they can stuff the run. However, the Saints just seem like they have the edge in this matchup, considering all the injuries.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Speaking of major edges, the Vikings certainly have one on this side of the ball. The Saints are one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to defending slot receivers. Adam Thielen plays in the slot for Minnesota. Yeah, it's going to be bad.

    While Thielen will threaten his season-high totals, the Saints at least will be able to limit Stefon Diggs. Marshon Lattimore is one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL, so he should be able to keep Diggs in check, much like Morris Claiborne did last week. New Orleans is also fairly decent at restricting tight ends, so I don't expect much from Kyle Rudolph.

    Another problem for the Vikings is their pass protection. The line is in rough shape, but the Jets couldn't really take advantage of it last week. The Saints should be able to, as star rookie Marcus Davenport and Cameron Jordan are a prolific pass-rushing duo. They should make life difficult for Cousins, who figures to have more passes tipped at the line of scrimmage.

    RECAP: The Vikings opened up as 1.5-point favorites, yet the spread is now pick 'em. Sharp money has moved this in New Orleans' favor, so I'm wondering if anyone knows anything about Rhodes' availability in this game. Rhodes being out would put the Vikings at a severe disadvantage.

    At any rate, I'm going with the Saints. You simply don't fade elite quarterbacks playing at the top of their game, and that would apply to Brees. What Brees did in Baltimore was eye-opening, and Minnesota doesn't nearly have as dominant of a defense anymore. Also, this is a revenge game for last year's divisional playoff loss. The Saints had that contest won prior to Diggs' miraculous catch, and now they're better than they were last year, while the Vikings have regressed aside from their quarterback because of injuries and Griffen's mental health condition.

    My unit count will depend on Rhodes' availability. I'll slot a unit on the Saints for now, but I may increase my wager.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Xavier Rhodes hasn't practiced yet, which is great news for Saints bettors. It bothers me that New Orleans is a public dog, but I think a small wager is OK.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Vikings will be without two offensive linemen, Anthony Barr and possibly Xavier Rhodes, but Everson Griffen could be back. Griffen could be out of shape after not doing anything for a while, so I still like the Saints here for a small wager. I might increase this to two units.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Some sharp money is moving this spread in the Saints' direction, as perhaps they're recognizing how banged up the Vikings are.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The Vikings won't have Xavier Rhodes, which is why the sharps continued to bet on the Saints throughout the day. This spread is up to -2.5. I'm going to stay with a unit on New Orleans.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 54% (20,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Drew Brees is 52-32 ATS as an underdog.
  • Drew Brees is 47-30 ATS off back-to-back wins.
  • Mike Zimmer is 48-22 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.
  • Vikings are 26-10 ATS at home since 2014.
  • Opening Line: Vikings -1.5.
  • Opening Total: 53.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 8 NFL Pick: Saints 27, Vikings 24
    Saints -2.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 54 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Saints 30, Vikings 20






    New England Patriots (5-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-5)
    Line: Patriots by 13.5. Total: 44.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -10.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Patriots -11.
    Monday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM


    The Game. Edge: Patriots.

    This week on ESPN, we're going to have two people I don't know calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here's what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Buffalo, where the Buffalo Sabres take on the crappy team that my Philadelphia Eagles beat in the Super Bowl. Ha! Guys, let's get to something more important than this game. I've been nominated for a Blemmy, as you may know, but I've been investigated for sexually insulting a woman when I was in high school even though that's impossible because I was home schooled, and mother said I can't talk to girls. So, to get everyone on my side, I've decided to take a DNA test to prove to everyone that I'm one-eighth Mr. Saturn, as I've been claiming all these years.

    Emmitt: Years, you not a Mr. Stanturn. Stanturn are the planet in the sky we see every night that big and white and sometime change shape because he a chameleon.

    Reilly: Emmitt, no, that's the moon. Saturn is the seventh planet in our solar system. But I'm not even talking about that either. I'm a Mr. Saturn. I'm one-eighth Mr. Saturn. We live in Saturn Valley and offer free coffee to people. BOING! And to prove this, I've taken the DNA test. I have the DNA guy on the line. Caller, you're on.

    Caller: I have the results of your DNA test, Mr. Reilly. I can confirm that you're one-one thousandth Mr. Saturn, as you may have had a Mr. Saturn ancestor in the past, though we're not sure if that's from North Saturn Valley or South Saturn Valley.

    Reilly: See, I told you guys I was a Mr. Saturn. Now, give me my Blemmy award that I so rightfully deserve because I'm a Mr. Saturn. ZOOM!

    Tollefson: Reilly, what the f**k are you talking about? The DNA guy said you're one-one thousandth; not one-eighth. You're clearly a liar, and you're just using this to get people on your side when no one should really care what you are. For instance, no one really cares that I am a man who likes to kidnap women and stash them in my cellar until they're ready to cook and clean naked for me.

    Reilly: What do you mean? Of course everyone cares! And now it's been proven that I'm a Mr. Saturn. Give me my award now!

    Wolfley: KEVIN, I DON'T THINK MR. SATURNS DESERVE AWARDS. THEY ARE UGLY THINGS WITH WHISKERS. NOW, IF YOU TOLD ME YOU WERE A FIRE HYDRANT WITH LIPS, WE'D BE TALKING.

    Herm: MR. SATURN!? WHAT'S A MR. SATURN!? WHAT THE HECK'S A MR. SATURN!? WHAT THE HELL A MR. SATURN!? WHAT IN THE WORLD'S A MR. SATURN!? WHAT IN BLAZES IS A MR. SATURN!? CAN SOMEONE TELL ME WHAT IS A MR. SATURN!? PLEASE TELL ME WHT'S A MR. SATURN!? TELL ME! SHOW ME! INFORM ME! DESCRIBE TO ME! BECAUSE I KNOW MR. SATURN'S NOT MR. MERCURY! I KNOW MR. SATURN'S NOT MR. VENUS! I KNOW MR. SATURN'S NOT MR. EARTH! I KNOW MR. SATURN'S NOT MR. MARS! I KNOW MR. SATURN'S NOT MR. JUPITER! I KNOW MR. SATURN'S NOT MR. SATURN! I KNOW MR. SATURN'S NOT MR. URANUS! I KNOW MR. SATURN'S NOT MR. NEPTUNE! I KNOW MR. SATURN'S NOT MR. PLUTO! EXCEPT PLUTO'S NOT A PLANET! NOT A PLANET ANYMORE! NOT A PLANET NO LONGER! WHY ISN'T IT A PLANET!? HERM DOESN'T KNOW! HERM CAN'T UNDERSTAND! HERM DOESN'T UNDERSTAND! HERM DOESN'T... UNDER... uhh... umm...

    Fouts: Herm, it sounds as though you're mistaken. Pluto is not a planet, as some may believe. This is because Pluto is actually a dog. Pluto is Mickey Mouse's dog in the Disney show. How can Pluto be both a planet and also a dog? It makes no sense. But... of course... it is clear to me now. Pluto is a planet-dog. That means he is both a planet and a dog at the same time, while also being a dog and a planet at the same time. This means he is not only a planet-dog, but also a dog-planet.

    Reilly: Fouts, as usual, you've revealed yourself to be an idiot. Maybe you should take a DNA test to determine that you're one-eighth idiot. Wait, we have another caller on the line. Caller, you're on with the best broadcasting team of all time.

    Caller 2: Hello, this is the President of Saturn Valley, and I am calling to denounce Kevin Reilly as a Mr. Saturn. He most certainly is not Mr. Saturn. Would any of you like a coffee? Thanks, and have a good day. DING!

    Reilly: That's bull crap! I'm definitely Mr. Saturn! Tell them, new daddy! Tell them I showed you in my diary that I'm Mr. Saturn!

    Cutler: Huh? Is someone talking about planets? If so, count me out. Astronomy is almost as boring as football. Wake me up when we get to something interesting.

    Reilly: BUT BUT BUT BUT BUT BUT NEW D-D-D-D-D-D...

    Charles Davis: Kevin, don't cry, Kevin, I believe you're a Mr. Saturn, Kevin. In fact I am a Mr. Jupiter, Kevin. I'm from Jupiter Valley, Kevin. And that's right next door to Saturn Valley, Kevin. I can confirm you're a one-eighth Mr. Saturn despite what the DNA shows, Kevin. I know the President of Jupiter Valley, Kevin, and he told me you're one-eighth Mr. Saturn, Kevin. Can you guess what our favorite food in Jupiter Valley is, Kevin? I'll give you eight guesses, Kevin. Looks like you got it right away, Kevin. Pepperoni pizza, Kevin. I have some in my pocket for you, Kevin.

    Reilly: Thanks, Charles. You always make me feel better. We'll be back after this...

    Charles Davis (inaudibly): Yes, Kevin, keep eating my macaroni and cheese and pepperoni pizza that I have stashed in my pockets, Kevin, and keep trusting me, Kevin, for my revenge will be complete by the Super Bowl, Kevin, and I will you expose you as a non-Mr. Saturn, Kevin, muhahaha, Kevin.

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Reports say that Rob Gronkowski won't miss too much action, meaning he could return to the field after missing the Chicago game. I'd say he'd be needed versus a defense that has an elite cornerback in Tre'Davious White to limit Josh Gordon, but it's not like the Patriots will need to score much, given their opponent's problems offensively.

    Gronkowski will obviously help, as he and James White seemingly have nice matchups against a defense that can't cover in space. Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines just had some success as receivers out of the backfield, so White has to be licking his chops in anticipation of this matchup. Gronkowski would similarly be able to dominate, but he's not healthy. However, a week off should definitely help.

    Speaking of Mack, he ran right through the Bills last week. Buffalo normally has a strong defense, but was focused on defending Andrew Luck. I imagine the Bills will be just as keyed on Tom Brady. Sony Michel's absence will hurt in this regard, so it'll be up to White and journeyman Kenjon Barner to be effective on the ground. I'm not exactly sure that can happen, but again, it may not matter.

    BUFFALO OFFENSE: It may not matter because the Bills are starting Derek Anderson at quarterback. Anderson was responsible for four turnovers last week. He had just two positive drives in non-garbage time. He was lucky he didn't have five interceptions. He looked like he didn't want to play football.

    And yet, this occurred versus a banged-up Indianapolis defense that isn't very good. The Patriots have their issues as well, but something they can do is shut down a top receiver with Stephon Gilmore, so they should be able to put the clamps on Kelvin Benjamin. They can also rush the passer with Trey Flowers, and the Bills have one of the worst blocking units in the NFL. The Patriots are better at these two things than the Colts are, so two positive drives in meaningful action might be too much to ask from Anderson.

    Meanwhile, it's unclear if LeSean McCoy will play. McCoy would give the Bills at least a glimmer of hope, but he suffered an injury on the second play of the Indianapolis game.

    RECAP: This point spread is ridiculously high. It was -10 on the advance line, yet it's ballooned to -14. However, don't mistake this for value on Buffalo. There is zero value with a Derek Anderson-quarterbacked team.

    I'd love to bet heavily on New England as an automatic fade of Anderson, but I fear as though I have to keep my unit count low. There's a ridiculous amount of action coming in on the Patriots, who were similarly favored against Jay Cutler on Monday Night Football last year. They lost that game outright.

    I'm not sure we'll get the Patriots' best effort in this game. Why would they bother showing up as two-touchdown favorites over a team that just lost by 32 to the Colts? They can't possibly take the Bills seriously with Anderson at quarterback.

    The thing is, however, it may not matter! We could get the Patriots' C- game here, and yet they could still win by 20-plus points. That's how dysfunctional the Bills are right now.

    I'm going to pick the Patriots as a non-wager for now. Perhaps I'll muster enough courage and wager on them by Monday, but this seems like such a "f**k the public" fixed Vegas game to me.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public action on the Patriots is decreasing, which is surprising to me. Perhaps Vegas won't need the Bills to cover. We'll see.

    SATURDAY NOTES: So much for the public action decreasing. It's up to nearly 75 percent on New England. Oh well. I don't think I'm going to bet this game, but I may change my mind.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There's still 70-percent action on the Patriots, and it sounds like LeSean McCoy will play.

    MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: There's not much of an update here, aside from noting that Vegas got crushed on Sunday. The books will need the Bills to cover, so I wouldn't be surprised if some shady things occur in this game. Also, if you plan on betting the Patriots, realize that you won't be getting their "A" game. This will be their C- or D+ effort. I think it's also worth noting that the Patriots have just one victory of more than 14 this year, which was against the Dolphins at home. I have bad memories of the Patriots losing to Jay Cutler as double-digit road favorites on Monday night last year, and Buffalo's defense could possibly keep this game close. Having said all of that, I can't pick Derek Anderson and his magical flask to cover any sort of spread, so I'm still zero on New England.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I don't think there's any winning here. If you take the Patriots, you'll be watching them as they're up 16-10 in the fourth quarter because they're super flat in an obvious Vegas spot. If you pick the Bills, you'll be kicking yourself for taking Derek Anderson when he tosses three pick-sixes. I'm staying with New England for zero. Good luck to those of you who are betting this game. If you like the Patriots, -13.5 is available at Bookmaker, but I'd actually want -14 +100 at BetUS. Fourteen is not a key number, so sell the half point!


    The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
    It would be shocking if we got the Patriots' "A" game against Derek Anderson.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
    Who in their right mind wants to bet on Derek Anderson?
  • Percentage of money on New England: 73% (66,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • History: Patriots have won 26 of the last 29 meetings.
  • Tom Brady is 227-70 as a starter (168-115 ATS).
  • Patriots are 54-39 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Patriots are 12-17 ATS as road favorites since 2013.
  • Opening Line: Patriots -13.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 43 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.


    Week 8 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Bills 10
    Patriots -13.5 (0 Units)
    Under 44.5 (0 Units)






    Week 8 NFL Picks - Early Games
    Miami at Houston, Philadelphia at Jacksonville, NY Jets at Chicago, Tampa Bay at Cincinnati, Seattle at Detroit, Denver at Kansas City, Washington at NY Giants, Cleveland at Pittsburgh, Baltimore at Carolina


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Teaser: Seahawks +8.5, Panthers +8.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200

    I know I'm going against both of these teams, but Seattle and Carolina have great quarterbacks who tend to keep games within a touchdown. I think there's a great chance this teaser hits.


    LOADING COMMENTS...



    NFL Picks - Jan. 16


    2021 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 13


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 11


    2022 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 15


    NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 14


    2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14


    2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
    Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Bucs: 7-9 (2014-19: 44-45)
    49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
    Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
    Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
    Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
    Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
    Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
    Packers: 12-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
    Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
    Rams: 5-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
    Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
    Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
    Saints: 7-10 (2014-19: 49-50)
    Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
    Bills: 10-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
    Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
    Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
    Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
    Browns: 7-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
    Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
    Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
    Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
    Ravens: 5-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Chiefs: 12-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
    Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
    Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
    Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
    Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
    Divisional: 43-47 (2011-19: 405-394)
    2x Game Edge: 63-60 (2011-19: 213-210)
    2x Motivation Edge: 45-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
    2x Spread Edge: 42-33 (2011-19: 61-55)
    2x Vegas Edge: 25-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
    2x Trend Edge: 18-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
    Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
    Triple Edge: 5-4 (2011-19: 21-18)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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