NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2021

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) at Seattle Seahawks (2-5)
Line: Seahawks by 4. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: Geno Smith struggled Monday night, to put it nicely. Take away the fluky touchdown to D.K. Metcalf and the three points scored off Adam Trautman’s lost fumble, and the Seahawks barely produced zero points. Smith was such a mess that I thought it was a guarantee that he’d give the defense a touchdown at the very end to help the Saints cover the spread. My life flashed before my eyes when he fired that final pass.

Smith will have a chance to redeem himself against the Jaguars’ soft defense, but that’s not a guarantee. The Saints don’t exactly have a stalwart stop unit, and Smith struggled against them. The offensive line will need to give Smith more of a chance, which it couldn’t do because there were two blockers sidelined with injuries. Damien Lewis will have to return to action for Smith to improve.

That said, it’s hard not to imagine the Seahawks not having some success. The Jaguars’ defense is anemic in every facet, so the receivers and tight ends will be able to get open, while Alex Collins and Rashaad Penny figure to pick up significant yardage on the ground.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: If Jameis Winston were the least bit accurate Monday night, the Saints would’ve scored plenty of points on the Seahawks’ defense. Instead, Jameis Winston overthrew four receivers in the first half alone. Winston finally got back on track in the second half, but that’s when his horrible receivers began dropping passes. I had no idea Kevin White was still in the NFL!

Trevor Lawrence won’t have such accuracy issues. Lawrence has made some mistakes in his rookie campaign – he currently has more interceptions (8) than touchdowns (7) – but he has shown flashes of brilliance, especially in recent weeks. He has tossed just one pick in the past three games, and it’s unlikely that figure will increase very much against a miserable Seattle secondary that can’t cover anyone.

The Seahawks are better against the run than the pass, so they’ll be able to limit James Robinson on the ground, much like they did with Alvin Kamara on Monday night. However, Seattle wasn’t able to deal with Kamara as a receiver out of the backfield, so if Urban Meyer was paying attention – unlikely that he was – perhaps he’ll use Robinson in a similar role.

RECAP: I don’t think this game presents a good betting opportunity. I like betting good teams with their backup quarterbacks, but I’m still undecided about Seattle being a good team. They have a great receiving corps and a solid offensive line when everyone is healthy – more on that in a bit – but their defense is sketchy. Their stop unit has played well the past two weeks, but only against a decrepit Ben Roethlisberger and an inaccurate Jameis Winston. I would assume they’d have much more trouble against Lawrence, but then again, the Jaguars don’t block well. This is a big problem.

As for Seattle’s blocking, I’ll be interested in them if Lewis returns from injury. Without Lewis, the Seahawks are down two blockers and thus aren’t worthy of being favorites without Russell Wilson – even over the lowly Jaguars. I’ll have an update later in the week. Follow me @walterfootball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Damien Lewis returned to a full practice Wednesday, so that’s a good sign for the Seahawks covering this spread. Unfortunately, this line moved to -3.5, so I have no interest in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Damien Lewis practiced fully, so he’s likely to return. The problem, however, is that Duane Brown missed practice all week with some sort of illness. If he sits, it’ll be impossible to bet the Seahawks. In fact, I think I’d switch to the Jaguars if that were the case.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on Duane Brown news, but I can’t see myself betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Duane Brown will play despite not practicing at all this week, so I’m not switching to the Jaguars. This line is either -3.5 -115 or -4 -110 depending where you look. I don’t think it’s worth paying five extra cents for four because that’s not a big key number. There’s no sharp money on either side.

New England Patriots (3-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
Line: Chargers by 4. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I wonder if Justin Herbert circled this game on his calendar once the schedule was released. This assumes Herbert even has a calendar, but let’s pretend he was one hanging on the side of his refrigerator. If so, there’s definitely a circle around Halloween because of what the Patriots did to him the last time he battled them. Bill Belichick humiliated Herbert, who went 26-of-53 for 209 yards and two interceptions in the 2020 meeting.

Herbert was just a raw rookie back then, and he didn’t have a talented offensive line supporting him like he does at the moment. The Patriots won’t be able to pressure Herbert nearly as much this time around, so he’ll be able to torch a New England secondary missing some key pieces like Jonathan Jones and Stephon Gilmore, both of whom were on the field during last year’s matchup.

The Patriots are still pretty solid against the run – Ezekiel Elliott was limited to 69 rushing yards in Week 6 – but they can be beaten by talented running backs used as receivers out of the backfield. Elliott caught seven passes for 50 receiving yards in that contest, so that obviously is bullish for Austin Ekeler.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Mac Jones is now the rookie quarterback in this matchup, but it’s difficult to imagine him having the same sort of performance Herbert endured last year. Jones has been exceptionally efficient and accurate in his young career. He has completed 70.4 percent of his passes, and it’s not like he’s only dinking and dunking.

Jones has his work cut out for him in this matchup, however. The Chargers’ pass rush brings plenty of heat, while the team has talented defensive backs who can limit the production of Jones’ receivers. The Chargers had issues at linebacker prior to the bye, as both Kenneth Murray and Drue Tranquill were sidelined. However, Tranquill was back at practice on Monday, which is obviously great news for the Chargers.

Another player who returned to practice Monday was Justin Jones, who has been sidelined since Week 2. Jones should help the team’s anemic rush defense, but I don’t expect it to improve all that much. Damien Harris figures to have another strong performance as a result.

RECAP: I like betting on good teams coming off embarrassing losses, and the Chargers certainly qualify. They were absolutely trashed in Baltimore the last time they played, and they’ve had an extra week to stew over it. I imagine they’ll be seeking revenge as well for the Patriots’ 45-0 victory last year.

The Chargers are much better now, and they’re even way better than they were in their Week 6 loss at Baltimore. It’s possible that they’ll get Tranquill, Justin Jones and Nasir Adderley all back from injury.

Despite the Chargers getting healthier and having a motivational edge, we’re getting line value with them. The advance spread was -6, and now it has dropped to -5.5 because of the Patriots’ blowout win over the Jets. A half-point isn’t normally a big deal, but getting the key number of six is important. Also, it’s fair to wonder if -5.5 is even correct. The Patriots have played just two road games this year, clobbering the Jets and nearly losing to the Texans. This is the first time Mac Jones will be tested against a good team in a road affair.

I like the Chargers quite a bit, as you can tell. I’ll likely be betting four units on them, barring any surprises on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp money coming in on the Patriots, bringing this line down to +5.

SATURDAY NOTES: There has been two sets of sharp money regarding in this game. One group bet the Patriots down to +4, while another group quickly swooped in and bet the Chargers at -4. I wonder if the second group knows anything about the statuses of Drue Tranquill and Austin Ekeler, both of whom are questionable. If Tranquil is sidelined, I’m going to have much less interest in the Chargers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps continued to bet the Patriots, bringing this line down to +4. I believe the sharps are wrong, but it doesn’t feel great going against them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps still bet the Patriots at +4, bringing this line down to +3.5. It feels wrong to bet the Chargers because there’s so much pro money on New England, but I still like the host to cover. The best line I see is -3.5 -113 at Bookmaker. I’m going to make this a three-unit wager.

Washington Redskins (2-5) at Denver Broncos (3-4)
Line: Broncos by 3.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Ugh. The Redskins. I can’t believe they didn’t beat the Packers outright, let alone cover the 8.5-point spread last week. As I mentioned earlier, they outgained the Packers and averaged more yards per play. They had scoreless drives that stopped at the Green Bay 23, 27, 1, 3 and 12. Those numbers will be forever ingrained in my mind. I’m going to be at some mental ward soon, doing nothing but muttering “23, 27, 1, 3, 12,” and then some fat guy is going to play those numbers in the lottery and win tons of money before crashing onto a tropical island containing a smoke monster.

Taylor Heinicke will have plenty of opportunities to manufacture more frustrating drives in this contest because the Broncos have been ravaged by injuries. Their top two linebackers are sidelined, which is why they’ve been so weak against the run lately. They couldn’t even stop D’Ernest Johnson this past Thursday. Antonio Gibson will have a huge game.

The Redskins should be able to abuse the backup linebackers via passes to the running backs and tight ends. I’m expecting nice games out of Gibson, J.D. McKissic and Ricky Seals-Jones as a result.

DENVER OFFENSE: Teddy Bridgewater got off to such a great start this year, but things have fallen apart for him ever since he got hurt against the Ravens in Week 4. Bridgewater didn’t miss any action beyond the second half of that game, but he hasn’t been the same since. It’s possible that he’s not 100 percent.

Bridgewater isn’t seeing the field clearly, as he failed to hit some open receivers against the Browns. Perhaps Jerry Jeudy’s return will help. Jeudy hasn’t played since Week 2, but is due back this Sunday. His presence will make it nearly impossible for the Redskins’ horrible secondary to defend Denver’s passing attack. Washington has been torched by everyone this year, so perhaps this matchup will allow Bridgewater to get back on track.

RECAP: This is one of the best spread values of the week. The Broncos were -4.5 on the advance line, and yet they’re only -3 now. There’s tons of betting action on the Redskins, which dragged this spread all the way down.

I’m loving the value with Denver, and not just because we get to fade a publicly backed underdog. The Broncos have enjoyed extra time to prepare for this contest, and having Jeudy back will be a huge game-changer. Besides, who are the Redskins to be backed so heavily like this? I know they outplayed Green Bay, but that’s because the overrated Packers were looking ahead to their Thursday night affair. Washington is 1-6 against the spread this year, covering only against the lowly Falcons. The team nearly lost at home to the Giants, for crying out loud.

The Broncos are the bet here, though I wouldn’t go too crazy with this game because Denver’s linebacker situation is a disaster. Still, I think the host is worth a two-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps were on the Redskins above +3, but not at +3 yet. That could change later in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Von Miller may miss this game. He failed to practice all week, and Vic Fangio told reporters that Miller was recovering slower than anticipated. If Miller is out, the Broncos will be down their top two edge rushers and two best linebackers. The Redskins, meanwhile, should be getting Brandon Scherff back from injury. I’m switching to Washington, and if Miller is out, this will be a two- or three-unit wager.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s sharp money coming in on the Broncos, likely because of the Jerry Jeudy news. It might also have something to do with Von Miller. I’ll be interested in his status, so check back around 3:30.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m off the Redskins. They’re going to be missing Brandon Scherff, meaning they won’t have three offensive linemen. The Broncos won’t have Von Miller either, but I don’t want anything to do with Washington and its injury-ravaged offensive line. If you still like the Redskins, the best line is +4 -110 at Bovada. The best Denver line is -4 -105 at Bovada.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-1) at New Orleans Saints (4-2)
Line: Buccaneers by 4. Total: 49.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It’s truly remarkable, but the Saints haven’t battled a potent offense this year, save for the low-effort Packers in Week 1. Since then, they’ve taken on the Panthers, Patriots, Giants, Redskins and Seahawks. Thus, looking at any statistics would be misleading.

Call me crazy, but I believe that the Buccaneers will provide a much tougher challenge for the defense than any of those other teams. Tom Brady is playing at an exceptional level this year, and he’ll likely be getting back at least one of Rob Gronkowski or Antonio Brown this week. The Saints have some serious holes in their secondary, so Marshon Lattimore won’t be enough for New Orleans to cover Brady’s weapons.

The trick to beating Brady is pressuring him with four linemen and playing man underneath. This is why it’s so difficult to beat him this year. Brady is protected by one of the top offensive lines in the NFL, and most man coverages can’t deal with all of Tampa’s receivers. The Saints’ defense doesn’t stand much of a chance.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Jameis Winston would love to obtain some revenge against his former team, but that would entail not overthrowing his receivers. Winston was guilty of four overthrows in the first half of the Monday night game alone, as his accuracy was spotty as usual. Winston is a very streaky player, so there’s a chance he could be better in this game.

Then again, the Saints don’t exactly have the receiving talent to take advantage of the Buccaneers’ greatest liability. Tampa has issues at cornerback, with three of the top four players at the position sidelined. I like Marquez Callaway, but the Saints won’t have much else at receiver until Michael Thomas returns from injury. They’re playing Kevin White, whom I assumed would’ve been relegated to the Bangladesh Football League by now.

The Saints’ sole dynamic play-maker right now is Alvin Kamara, but he doesn’t project to be very productive as a rusher in this contest. It’s impossible to run on the Buccaneers, so Kamara will have to do most of his damage as a receiver out of the backfield. Kamara hasn’t been used in that role as much this year, though that changed Monday night. I wonder if that will remain the same if Taysom Hill returns from injury to ruin New Orleans’ offense once again.

RECAP: We lost a point of line value heading into this week; the Buccaneers were -4 in this matchup prior to Week 7, and now the spread is -5. That shouldn’t be a huge deal; I still like the Buccaneers.

The Saints are overrated. As mentioned earlier, they haven’t played a good offense since Week 1 when the Packers weren’t trying. Their wins haven’t been very impressive, but they’ll have the Buccaneers’ full attention because this is a divisional game. It’s possible that Winston could get a back-door cover, but I think it’s more likely that the Buccaneers will win this contest by a touchdown or more.

I’m not a fan of the lost line value, but I’m going to bet a couple of units on the Buccaneers. Think about what this spread would be if the Saints hadn’t enjoyed great luck and were rightfully 2-4. Tampa Bay will be trying hard because a New Orleans victory would bring its divisional lead down to just half a game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Antonio Brown was seen on crutches, but Rob Gronkowski will return to the field this week. The public is pounding the Buccaneers, while the sharps haven’t weighed in yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing has really changed for me since Thursday. The sharps are on the Saints, but I don’t really care too much about that. This will remain a two-unit wager.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are pounding the Saints, bringing this line down to +4. Perhaps someone knows something about Rob Gronkowski?

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers are getting Rob Gronkowski, Lavonte David, Jason Pierre-Paul and Richard Sherman back from injury. Despite this, the Saints have gotten sharp money. I still like the Buccaneers enough to bet two units on them. The best line is -4 -108 at Bookmaker.

Dallas Cowboys (5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-3)
Line: Vikings by 4.5. Total: 52.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: Dak Prescott has been playing on an MVP level this year, and I don’t see that changing in this game. It’s an easy matchup, after all, as the Vikings have endured issues covering this year. The cornerbacks have really struggled, so it’s difficult to see them standing any sort of chance against CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper.

The Vikings have been able to pressure the quarterbacks they’ve limited, but it will be tough for Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen to put heat on Prescott. Dallas’ offensive line has been one of the top blocking units this season, as Prescott has seldom seen pressure. The blocking will get even better if La’el Collins is able to return from suspension this week.

The offensive line will blast open large holes for Ezekiel Elliott as well. The last time the Vikings battled a potent ground attack, the duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined for 169 rushing yards. Elliott and Tony Pollard figure to approach that figure as well.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I suspect Dalvin Cook will be very productive, too. The Cowboys’ defense has improved greatly this season, but they can still be weak to the run. They’ve lucked out by not seeing Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley in matchups against the Panthers and Giants, respectively. Stopping Cook will be a tough challenge.

The Cowboys have been much better against the pass. They’ve been generating much more pressure on the quarterback despite DeMarcus Lawrence’s absence, as rookie Micah Parsons has been exceptional. Parsons and company figure to put plenty of heat on Kirk Cousins behind a pedestrian offensive line.

Dallas’ secondary is much better as well, thanks mostly to Trevon Diggs, who has been a shutdown cornerback in his second season. Diggs will have his work cut out for him against Justin Jefferson, who has basically been matchup-proof since becoming a full-time player for the Vikings early last year.

RECAP: I really don’t see an incentive to bet this game. This spread is appropriately priced, and I’m not seeing any edges as far as injuries and motivation are concerned.

I’m leaning toward the Cowboys. It’s a square side, but I think Dallas is more likely to cover than Minnesota, as I believe the most likely result of this matchup is the Cowboys winning by three.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money has come in on the Vikings, which is not a surprise. Professional bettors like to point out that Dallas has been the luckiest team in the NFL this year as far as turnovers are concerned.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing in the Buccaneers-Saints game changed. Here, everything changed. Dak Prescott may not play after being limited all week in practice. If Prescott plays, I’m going to be on Minnesota once the line moves back to where it was. I have no interest in backing an injured quarterback. If, however, Cooper Rush starts instead of Prescott, I’ll be on the Cowboys because I love backing good teams without their starting quarterback. This might confuse some because of how the Cowboys performed without Prescott last year, but this Dallas team is so much better than the 2020 version. These Cowboys have a healthy offensive line, an in-shape Ezekiel Elliott, and a much improved defense.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Dak Prescott’s status is truly up in the air. I’ll have an update after the final late afternoon game ends.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Dak Prescott is out, causing this line to balloon to +4.5. I’m going to bet four units on Dallas. As I said before, I love betting on good teams missing their starting quarterback, and Cooper Rush should do just fine versus Dallas’ defense. The best line is +4.5 -110 in multiple sportsbooks. Let’s hope for better luck in this game compared to what happened in the two early losses.

New York Giants (2-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-4)
Line: Chiefs by 10. Total: 52.
Monday, Nov. 1, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas, where tonight, the Kansas City Chiefs take on the stupid Vagiants, a team no one likes except for dumb people I would never invite to my sleepovers. Guys, they’re saying that the 650,000 e-mails are going to be released soon. I’m really worried about this because I sent some horrible e-mails that could get me into deep trouble. If I’m fired, please broadcast as hard for me as the Raiders played for Jim Gruden when they fired him!

Emmitt: Cho Sang-Woo, I still does not knowed how to send e-mail. I wented to the post office and ask the lady with the blue short how to open e-mail account, and she tolded me to go to G-mail. I thought I need to set up e-mail, but now I need G-mail. How many alphabet mail are there exist!?

Reilly: Emmitt, I can’t have a G-mail account because Mother says I’ll be corrupted if I get a G-mail account. I can only have an account on Hotmail.

Tollefson: Kevin, you’re such a n00b. When I kidnap women and imprison them in my dungeon, I tell them that they can have their own e-mail account on something I like to call Tolly-Mail. These e-mails are on my own private servers, so any e-mail these female slaves send are redirected to my e-mail account. I then answer, pretending to be the person they’re e-mailing. You should see how many of them are holding out hope for help because I replied that I would send help!

Reilly: Tolly, you don’t have to brag about how cool you are. On my Cool Friends Power Rankings that I release every Monday morning, you’ve been atop the list 511 weeks in a row. But I need help hiding my e-mails from the NFL because I’m going to be fired!

Joe Biden: I’ll say this one time, and one time only. My son, uhh, the guy who was in the Army, he had the e-mails on you know, you know the thing. He got money from Tom Xi Ping from the country, you know the country, and he gave me the money and he called me a code name in the e-mails. He called me the Big Guy with Hairy Legs. That’s what the kids called me at the pool five years ago when I sat on the lifeguard stand, and all the kids used to rub my hairy legs for good luck. And if they rubbed hard enough, the genie would come out and give them three wishes. He was a blue guy with a flying carpet.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, did anyone hear what Creepy Joe just said!? He just admitted to the e-mail scandal that the Twitter censored when I was running for President again in 2020. I ran for President, and let’s face it, I won. But the cheating Twitter, and the crooked, fake news mainstream media colluded against me! Everyone knew about Hunter Biden’s e-mails, but Twitter banned all links to it, so I’m going to do something great, because let’s face it, everything I do is great, and everyone agrees! What I am going to do is start my own social media company. No one knows more about social media than me, let’s face it, and that includes Liliput Kyler Murray and Jack Dorsey. Weird guy, that Jack Dorsey. He looks like a homeless person, that Jack Dorsey. I call him Homeless Jack! You like that nickname, Homeless Jack? I came up with it myself, which is why it’s such a great nickname because no one comes up with nicknames like I do. They say I’m the best at making up nicknames! I don’t know about the best, but I’m pretty good at it, aren’t I?

Wolfley: DONALD, WHEN YOU RELEASE YOUR SOCIAL MEDIA COMPANY, PLEASE DON’T STEAL ANY OF MY IDEAS. I, TOO, AM LAUNCHING A SOCIAL MEDIA COMPANY. IT’S CALLED SAUCE ON THE BOYS NETWORK. WE HAVE ONE ACTIVE USER SO FAR.

Reilly: Guys, stop talking about social media because Mother won’t let me join them. I’m restricted to Hotmail. Mother says if I join Twitter, the cooties from all the women who use Twitter will come get me, and they’ll make me allergic to macaroni and cheese. But back to my e-mails. Guys, I’m really worried about them, but I hope New Daddy can do something like that lady did where she poured bleach on her servers.

Jay Cutler: Oh, that’s what you wanted the bleach for? I poured them on your Eagles bobbleheads. Oops.

Reilly: NNNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO WAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re upset, Kevin, so I’m going to talk about all the social media networks you can’t join, Kevin. Let’s begin with the classics, Kevin. How about Twitter, Kevin? Then there’s Facebook, Kevin. Don’t forget about MySpace, Kevin. How abut Instagram, Kevin? Let’s have a chat … about Snapchat, Kevin! What do you think about TikTok, Kevin? Better stay off that one unless you want China stealing your data, Kevin! Why not go with Lomotif, Kevin? It’s never a bad idea to discuss Sauce on the Boys Network, Kevin.

Reilly: SHUT UP, CHARLES DAVIS! ONE DAY I’LL GET A SHIELD TO PROTECT AGAINST GIRLS’ COOTIES, AND WHEN I DO, I’LL JOIN ALL THE NETWORKS, INCLUDING SAUCE ON THE BOYS NETWORK, AND MAKE FUN OF YOU BUHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! We’ll be back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs remind me of my picks. Both were great in the couple of years leading up to 2021, but nothing has gone right this season. Anything that can go wrong has gone wrong for both the Chiefs and my selections. Curiously, heading into Week 7, I’ve had a winning record in the SuperContest when the Chiefs have won, and a losing record in the SuperContest when the Chiefs have suffered a defeat. Somehow, we are inexorably linked.

I’m rooting for the Chiefs to stop making mistakes because that might mean that I can get some 5-0s and 4-1s in the Supercontest. Perhaps that’ll begin this week. The Chiefs keep shooting themselves in the foot with dumb errors, and it’s not just one person. It’s the entire collective. I don’t understand why this keeps occurring, but they have to experience some better variance sooner or later.

The Giants don’t have a soft defense, or anything, but the Chiefs have the weapons to beat anyone. The Giants are especially poor at linebacker because of Blake Martinez’s absence, and the Chiefs should be able to take advantage of this with Travis Kelce and Darrel Williams.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It was odd to see Derrick Henry fail to reach the century rushing mark last week. It was the first time this didn’t occur since Week 1. This, however, didn’t stop the Titans from scoring on every single possession in the first half.

The Chiefs sold out to stop Henry, which opened up great passing opportunities with Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown. The latter was a monster, and one of Kenny Golladay or Kadarius Toney figures to have a similar performance – if they happen to play. Both missed last week’s game, though Golladay seemed close to playing. I’ll be surprised if Golladay is sidelined once more.

The one hope the Chiefs have of stopping the Giants is to force Daniel Jones into turnovers. This can be done by pressuring him heavily, which shouldn’t be difficult because left tackle Andrew Thomas won’t be available. Chris Jones is back, so the Chiefs’ defensive line will likely to win in the trenches.

RECAP: Call me a glutton for punishment, but I’m betting the Chiefs again. This is actually one of my top bets of the week. I love Kansas City for the following reasons:

1. I’m a huge fan of betting elite quarterbacks off a loss. Wagering on the Chiefs in this situation has won two of three times this year, and I expect it to be three of four by the time this contest is finished.

2. I’m also a huge fan of betting good teams coming off an embarrassing loss. This dynamic is 7-1 against the spread this year, and it’s one of the few things that has worked for me. Kansas City will be doing whatever it takes to prevent dropping to 3-5.

3. We’re getting nice line value. The advance spread on this game was -13, and now it’s -10. Ten isn’t a major key number, but plenty of games land on 10, so that’s a big deal. Getting three points of value is nice, too.

This will be another five-unit Monday night selection. I realize betting the Chiefs right now may seem risky, but that’s yet another reason why I like them. It’s unusual that the public isn’t betting them heavily, and it seems as though casual bettors have abandoned them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We probably won’t know about the status of the Giants receivers closer to kickoff on Monday. There’s no update quite yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay have been ruled out, but it seems as though Kadarius Toney will play. Despite this, the Chiefs seem like a great side this week, given that they’re coming off such an embarrassing loss.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m hoping an active Kadarius Toney brings this line down a bit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kadarius Toney is active, but this spread hasn’t been dragged down at all. In fact, the sharps bet this up to -10.5, or even -11 in some sportsbooks. Ten is enough of a key number for me to pay the -121 vig at Bookmaker. I love betting great quarterbacks off a loss, especially embarrassing ones, so this will remain a five-unit pick at the increased price.