NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2021

Green Bay Packers (6-1) at Arizona Cardinals (7-0)
Line: Cardinals by 6. Total: 50.5.
Thursday, Oct. 28, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 7 Analysis: What a tilting week. I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Browns, 3 units (win): This should’ve been a higher bet, but I’m not a fan of going nuts with the Thursday night games.

Bengals, 3 units (win): I would’ve bet four or more units on the Bengals had the Ravens missed multiple offensive linemen. Little did I know that the Ravens would suffer an offensive line injury during this game!

Redskins, 4 units (loss): Is this the most misleading score of the season? The Redskins lost by two touchdowns even though they outgained the Packers and averaged more yards per play. They had scoreless drives stop at the Green Bay 23, 27, 1, 3 and 12. They had two touchdowns removed by replay review. Terry McLaurin dropped a touchdown, and Ricky Seals-Jones should’ve drawn a pass interference in the end zone, but no flag was thrown. The Redskins should’ve won this game outright, let alone covered the 8.5-point spread!

Chiefs, 3 units (loss): The Chiefs continued to shoot themselves in the foot. They’ve been the unluckiest team this year. When variance shifts in their favor, they’ll be a covering machine.

Dolphins, 3 units (loss/win): The Dolphins closed at +1.5 and lost by two. Ugh. Congrats if you bet the +2.5, which was the Supercontest line. I didn’t lock this in because I was hoping we’d see +3. That never materialized.

Eagles, 5 units (loss): Derek Carr is apparently the second coming of Tom Brady, Joe Montana and Dan Marino, all rolled into one. I should’ve factored that into my handicapping, but I don’t feel too bad because this was the No. 1 sharp side of the week.

Seahawks, 5 units (win): My life flashed before my eyes when Geno Smith released that final pass!

Like the Chiefs, I’m hoping for better variance to help us in the second half of the season.

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: There was breaking news Monday evening when it was announced that Davante Adams will likely miss this game with a minor illness. Let’s hope he has a quick recovery. Adams’ absence will obviously be enormous, especially against an Arizona defense that has allowed big yardage to receivers.

I would normally trust Aaron Rodgers to play well with the backup receivers, but not if he doesn’t have protection. The Packers will be missing multiple offensive linemen, which spells trouble against the ferocious Arizona defensive line, which will be welcoming Chandler Jones from his own minor illness. Somehow, he survived.

The Cardinals tend to play well against the run, so the Packer offense will be limited, especially when factoring in their blocking issues. Rodgers, as a result, will be put into unfavorable passing positions in most series.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The primary reason why I loved the Redskins last week was because of the numerous injuries to the Packers’ defense. Green Bay was missing its top two cornerbacks and two best edge rushers. There’s a chance Preston Smith and Kevin King will return, but they may not be at full strength.

Smith’s presence will be key because the Packers are already down Za’Darius Smith. The Cardinals had trouble protecting Kyler Murray against the Texans, so Preston Smith would allow the Packers to rattle the MVP frontrunner. Then again, Green Bay hasn’t exactly been tested against good quarterbacks this year. Check out the signal-callers they’ve battled thus far: Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Burrow (good), Justin Fields and Taylor Heinicke. I’d say Murray is much better than all of them, save for Burrow!

Green Bay will need to get to Murray, but even if they do, the mobile quarterback could just create some plays with his legs. He’ll be able to shred Green Bay’s struggling secondary, and he’ll have support from his running backs, who will be gaining yardage against a poor ground defense.

RECAP: I’m definitely picking the Cardinals. The Packers are not that good of a football team. They were legitimately outgained by the Redskins, and they beat the woeful Bears by just 10. Don’t forget that they were blown out by the Saints and then trailed the Lions at the half to start the season.

I was hoping to fade an overrated Packer team, but the public may want to do that now that Adams has been ruled out. This line has ballooned to -6, so the spread value we once had is long gone. Furthermore, six is a key number, so the back door will be in play for Rodgers. I’m scared of that, so I won’t be betting this game unless we get significant Green Bay injury news, beyond Adams’ illness.

Our Week 8 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Packers will be missing Davante Adams for sure, and Allen Lazard is likely out as well. The Cardinals aren’t at full strength either – a couple of offensive linemen will be sidelined, and J.J. Watt won’t be available – so this is a tough game to handicap. I’m likely going to be on Arizona for no units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet on the Packers at +6.5, and I wonder if it has to do with Preston Smith being active. That’s huge, especially with the Cardinals missing multiple offensive linemen. I was very close to switching my pick to Green Bay, but I’m going to leave it on Arizona as a non-wager. The best line I see is -6 -108 at Bookmaker.

Miami Dolphins (1-6) at Buffalo Bills (4-2)
Line: Bills by 14. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa is incredibly frustrating. He looks great at times with his spectacular accuracy, but he makes two or three bone-headed mistakes every game. He threw a killer interception against the Jaguars in London, and he was picked twice in the red zone versus the Falcons. Even if he had just settled for three points, it’s likely that his team would have prevailed, covering that God-forsaken 1.5-point spread.

The thing is, Tagovailoa hasn’t battled a tough defense since his return. He has played the Jaguars and Falcons, two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Those teams don’t have dynamic pass rushes that were capable of rattling him. The Bills are a completely different beast. They’ll hound Tagovailoa, forcing him into more errors.

The one positive the Dolphins have going for them entering this game is that Malcolm Brown is on injured reserve. This will force the two inept offensive coordinators to use their best running back, Myles Gaskin. It seems likely that Gaskin will have some nice gains as a receiver out of the backfield.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Dolphins surrendered plenty of yardage to Matt Ryan last week, but they did a good job of keeping him out of the end zone. I doubt they’ll have similar success against Josh Allen, who has enjoyed an extra week to prepare for this matchup.

Allen, of course, will be battling two big-name cornerbacks. I was happy to see Xavien Howard and Byron Jones return from injury last week, which is one of the reasons I bet on the Dolphins. However, Jones hasn’t played very well this year, which bodes poorly against Buffalo’s talented receiving corps. I don’t see how the Dolphins will cover all of the Bills’ wideouts. I don’t think they’ll be able to generate much pressure either.

When he’s not throwing the ball, Allen will pick up chunks of yardage with his legs. I expect either Devin Singletary or Zack Moss to have success rushing the ball as well. The Dolphins have a miserable run defense that allowed 82 rushing yards to Singletary in Week 2.

RECAP: If the Bills were coming off a victory, I’d consider the Dolphins as a play here to cover this large spread. Buffalo already embarrassed Miami earlier this season, so what would be the incentive for them to play hard in this rematch?

The incentive is that the Bills just lost their most recent game, and they’ve had an extra week to stew over it. I imagine they’ll play hard in this contest to avoid falling to 4-3. They’ll dominate the trenches on both sides of the ball and will likely come away with a blowout victory. I won’t be betting this game, however, because there are many better sides this week, and I’m not crazy about betting a huge public favorite after the sportsbooks have been demolished almost every week this season.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps tend to bet on large underdogs, but that’s not the case in this game. They haven’t touched either side, with the public betting this line up to -14 in many books.

SATURDAY NOTES: I know I said I wasn’t going to bet this game, but after some consideration, I’ll place two units on the Bills. I’m not as concerned about them being flat because they’re coming off a loss, and I love how they match up with Miami in the trenches.

FOR-FUN PARLAY: This is an eight-team for-fun parlay. People seem to get mad that I’m throwing away $50 each week even though it’s just for fun, so I’m going to keep doing it. The eight-team parlay is: Bills moneyline, Panthers +3.5, Eagles -2.5, Colts -2.5, Rams moneyline, Bengals moneyline, Bears +4.5 and Chiefs -9.5. I can hedge Monday evening if I get the first seven correct.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet up the Bills to -14.5 or -15 even though DeVante Parker is active. I can’t find -14 anywhere. The best line is actually -14.5 -110 at FanDuel.

Carolina Panthers (3-4) at Atlanta Falcons (3-3)
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 23-13 so far this year. As you can tell, the sportsbooks have taken a beating.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Patriots -7

Panthers -3

Packers -8.5

The teams were 2-1. The sportsbooks got crushed yet again. They deserved to lose money because of that dumb Patriots line that threw me off. I thought there was something shady about it. Instead, the guy who set the line was just being completely incompetent.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Rams -14.5

Titans -1

Bengals -9.5

Bills -13.5

Buccaneers -4.5

Browns -3.5

Once again, mostly road favorites. I’d chide the public for not learning their lesson, but they’ve won with these all year.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Sam Darnold has not played well in recent weeks, to put it nicely. He was screwed by nine drops against the Vikings, but the drops weren’t nearly as prevalent against the Giants. Yet, all Darnold could do was muster three points in New Jersey, ultimately getting benched in the process.

I don’t want to make excuses for Darnold because he was legitimately terrible, but his poor offensive line couldn’t protect him this past week, which forced some bad throws. The Giants have talent on their defensive line, while the Falcons do not outside of Grady Jarrett. Thus, I’d expect Darnold to bounce back from his benching. Atlanta couldn’t even get to Tua Tagovailoa last week, and Miami has one of the worst blocking units in the NFL.

With more time in the pocket this week, Darnold will be able to connect with his talented receivers, plus Chuba Hubbard as a receiver out of the backfield. D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson have nice advantages over Atlanta’s miserable secondary. Anderson, of course, would have to refrain from dropping passes to take advantage of the matchup; he’s dropped six balls in the past two games!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan versus the Panthers may seem like a great matchup to some, but I wouldn’t agree. First of all, the Panthers boast a tremendous pass rush, and the Falcons have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Pressure wasn’t an issue last week because Miami doesn’t get to the quarterback as frequently as Carolina does. This will be an issue for Ryan.

Second, the Panthers will be welcoming Stephon Gilmore to the field for the first time since trading for him a few weeks ago. Gilmore is an exceptional talent, and he’ll lock down one side of the field. The Panthers also have other talented defensive backs, so Ryan won’t have much success, even when he doesn’t have pass-rushers in his face.

The primary weakness of the Carolina defense is its inability to stop the run. The Falcons, however, don’t rush the ball very well. Cordarrelle Patterson is a nice gimmick player, but he’s not a true running back. Mike Davis, meanwhile, has completely vanished.

RECAP: Betting the Panthers may seem like the least-desirable thing in the world at the moment in the wake of their blowout loss to the Giants, but I think that makes them more appealing. I like betting good teams coming off embarrassing defeats. Calling the Panthers a “good team” may seem like a stretch, but I think that’s exactly what they are. They’re a good team with an anemic quarterback. If they had just gotten average play out of Darnold in recent weeks, they’d be 4-3 or 5-2 right now.

For reasons explained above, I expect Darnold to play better this Sunday. Yet, the spread doesn’t reflect that. The advance line was Atlanta -2, yet it has risen to -3 because of what transpired in Week 7. I don’t think this line move is warranted. This three-point spread suggests the Falcons are better than the Panthers – home teams now get either two or 2.5 points – which is not correct. Except for quarterback, name a position where the Falcons are better than the Panthers. Remember, this Atlanta team lost to the Eagles and Redskins at home! They are horrible. The Panthers are not, despite what happened against the Giants.

Believe it or not, this is one of my top plays of the week. I could go as high as five units, depending on what we see on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Cameron Erving practiced fully on Wednesday, while Shaq Thompson returned to a limited practice. The Panthers getting back both is important in this game, especially Thompson, as the defense has been much worse without him. Some sharp money is coming in on Carolina, so I may lock in this pick if I hear more positive news about Thompson.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still love the Panthers, especially with Shaq Thompson due back. There’s some question about Stephon Gilmore playing, but if he does, this will be a five-unit pick. I’ve been asked by some, “How can you trust Sam Darnold?” My response: “How can you trust this garbage Atlanta team to win by more than a field goal?” The Falcons have lost at home to the Eagles and Redskins this year!

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m jumping to this one first because Calvin Ridley is out. The +3 -110s are disappearing, but you can still get +3 -110 at FanDuel and DraftKings. I obviously still love the Panthers, and the sharps are betting Carolina on Sunday morning.

Philadelphia Eagles (2-5) at Detroit Lions (0-7)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 48.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:



Imagine being restricted to dating only cat ladies. Yeesh. That’s what you get for saying the word “cringe.”

This guy doesn’t like for-fun parlays because he hates fun:



Imagine hating fun. What a miserable existence. That said, I actually did recently donate to a charity, so I’m not only throwing my money away.

Here’s something from Frank Sebastiano, whom I wrote about in Jerks of the Week:



Imagine pretending to be a serious bettor and saying things like, “Once it’s set, it’s set.” Wow.

Here’s someone who isn’t following the science:



Imagine being so terrible at your job that you get things wrong all the time. Oh, wait. Oops!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I can’t say I understand why the Eagles failed to score following their first drive against the Raiders until garbage time. I watched the game, and yet it was still puzzling to me because the Raiders don’t have much talent on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas Goedert should have been able to take advantage of a poor linebacking corps, but he caught just three passes.

Perhaps we’ll get the results we were seeking in this game. The Lions are even worse than the Raiders in all regards. All they have going for them are some talented edge rushers, and that’s it. Their linebackers are much worse than what the Raiders possess, so Goedert has yet another terrific matchup. Their cornerbacks can’t cover anyone either, so if Jalen Hurts can be accurate – a big if, for sure – the Eagle receivers will be able to have some big gains.

The Lions are also putrid versus the run. Of course, the Eagles would have to rush the ball to take advantage of this liability. Head coach Nick Sirianni doesn’t seem to understand that NFL teams can run plays where the quarterback hands the ball off to the player behind him, but perhaps he’ll do some film study and come to that realization this week.

DETROIT OFFENSE: I don’t understand how Derek Carr performed so well against the Eagles last week, especially without Darren Waller for the entire contest and Josh Jacobs for half the game. He was unstoppable, throwing ridiculous passes to pedestrian talents like Foster Moreau, Bryan Edwards and Kenyan Drake. It was like we were in some bizarro world where Carr suddenly became the greatest quarterback of all time.

Call me crazy, but I don’t think Jared Goff will have similar success. Goff has been poor this year, particularly in the red zone. He has even worse receivers than the Waller-less Raiders, and his offensive line is putrid. The Eagles should be able to harass him into some turnovers.

The Lions have some talented players on this side of the ball in D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson. Both should have nice receiving gains in this contest, as the Eagles have one of the worst linebacking corps in the NFL. I wouldn’t expect much from Swft as a runner, however, as the Eagles are still pretty decent against ground attacks.

RECAP: Here we go again. I’m betting the Eagles heavily. Like I said before, I’m a glutton for punishment. However, I believe that the Eagles are the correct side in this game. If they could demolish the Falcons in Atlanta and beat the Panthers in Carolina, they can prevai in this contest. I believe every aspect favors them:

From a matchup perspective, the biggest edge in this contest is the Philadelphia defensive line versus the Detroit front, which has trouble blocking because of two absent starters. This would be an enormous edge if Brandon Graham were still healthy, but with Fletcher Cox and Josh Sweat, the Eagles should be able to win in this regard.

The motivational edge goes to the Eagles as well. The Lions threw the kitchen sink at the Rams. They exhausted everything in their playbook, and they came up empty. I don’t see how they can play so hard two weeks in a row, so this could resemble the blowout loss to the Bengals in Week 6. Meanwhile, the Eagles were just humiliated. I think they’ll bounce back.

We’re getting spread value with the Eagles, too. The advance line was Philadelphia -3.5, but the number is down to -3 in some sportsbooks. Getting the key number of three is extremely important.

The cherry on top is the betting action. There’s sharp money coming in on the Eagles. Of course, this was the case last week, and that didn’t pan out, but perhaps the professional bettors will be correct this week.

I love the Eagles as long as we can get a clean -3. I’d still like them at -3.5, but not nearly as much, so we’ll see what we can get later in the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Miles Sanders in practice, but that’s not a big deal. This line has moved to -3.5 in some sportsbooks, but if you think that’s too high, consider this: The Lions have scored 20 or more points once this year, and that was in garbage time versus the 49ers in the season opener.

SATURDAY NOTES: I wish we were still getting -3, but the sharps made sure that wasn’t possible. I still like the Eagles to cover this low spread, as Detroit is not going to match the same intensity it played with against the Rams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was sharp action on the Eagles earlier in the week, but some pro money has come in on the Lions on Sunday morning. This just gives us a better -3, so I’m happy to get it. The best lines are -3 -115 at Bovada and DraftKings.

Tennessee Titans (5-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-4)
Line: Colts by 2.5. Total: 51.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

Contest Announcement time!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

Also, our Survivor Contest has returned as well. It’s free to enter, and you can win $350!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Derrick Henry failed to reach the century rushing mark last week for the first time since the season opener. Henry still had an enormous impact on the game, however. In addition to throwing a touchdown pass on a trick play, his presence forced the Chiefs to sell out against the run, giving Ryan Tannehill easy passing opportunities against a woeful secondary. The Titans, as a result, didn’t punt until the second half.

While the Chiefs’ miserable rush defense didn’t stand a chance against Henry, the Colts will be able to limit him. Indianapolis has a strong run defense that restricted Henry to just four yards per carry in Week 3, which was one of three times this year he’s been held to that mark.

Tannehill will be forced into doing more this time without the opposing defense selling out against the run. The Colts rattled Tannehill in Week 3, forcing him into two interceptions. The Colts have a stellar pass rush that will be able to generate pressure on Tannehill, which could prompt more turnovers.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Carson Wentz also had a miserable performance the last time these teams met. Wentz failed to complete half of his passes, going 19-of-37 for 194 yards. The Colts failed to move the ball all afternoon, scoring only off Tannehill’s turnovers.

Wentz, however, wasn’t even supposed to play in that game. He was coming off his double ankle sprain and was expected to sit. Wentz is now fully healthy, and the same could be said of his receiving corps, minus Parris Campbell. T.Y. Hilton was downgraded last week with a quad injury, but he could return this week. Hilton didn’t play in Week 3, so his presence will allow the Colts to really challenge a Tennessee secondary missing multiple players.

Speaking of improved health, the Colts may have their entire offensive line available in this contest as well. Quenton Nelson returned last week, and right tackle Braden Smith may follow suit. Smith has been out since Week 5, but he got in a limited practice late last week. That could be a sign that he’s close to returning. If so, Wentz will have an eternity in the pocket to slice through Tennessee’s poor secondary.

RECAP: The Colts are my top play this week. In fact, they’re my October NFL Pick of the Month. Here’s why I love them so much:

1. The Colts match up well against the Titans. As discussed earlier, their run defense will prevent Henry from dominating, while their much healthier offense will be able to pass all over Tennessee’s injury-ravaged cornerback group.

2. Everyone and their evil stepmother is betting on the Titans. As of this writing, Tennessee is close to getting 90 percent of the betting action. This seems like free money to casual bettors. The squares perhaps have a right to be cocky, given that they’ve dominated the sportsbooks this season, but that’s bound to change soon. The house always wins in the end.

3. The Titans are not as good as people think they are. That may sound like blasphemy, given that they just beat the Bills and Chiefs. However, they got Buffalo in a low-effort game, while Kansas City repeatedly shot itself in the foot with dumb mistakes. Plus, both wins were at home. Remember, the Titans are not too far removed from losing to the Jets. I know A.J. Brown and Julio Jones weren’t available in that game, but the defense, which was healthier then than it is now, couldn’t stop Zach Wilson. Tennessee’s defense stinks and will be exposed soon.

4. The Colts are much better than people think they are. They’re 3-4, but some losses can be disregarded because of injuries. The Colts outplayed the Rams in Week 2 and had the Ravens on the ropes a couple of Monday nights ago, holding a 22-3 lead in the third quarter. They’re a very good team, but the record doesn’t reflect that because of injuries to Wentz, Hilton, the offensive line and Xavier Rhodes.

5. We’re getting great line value. The advance spread was Indianapolis -2.5, and the line two weeks ago, before Tennessee’s win over Buffalo, may have been -3. Yet, because the Titans beat the Chiefs, they are now favored on the road, which seems absurd to me. Again, remember that the Colts outplayed the Rams and nearly beat the Ravens. Had they prevailed in both games and owned a 5-2 record, they would be -2.5 or -3 versus Tennessee. Instead, we’re getting them as home underdogs, which is amazing value.

6. The motivational angle favors the Colts. They need this game more. The Titans are coming off two big statement wins versus the Bills and Chiefs. They already beat the Colts this year, so I don’t see them bringing an A+ effort for the third consecutive week. This is Indianapolis’ chance to make a statement.

I love everything about Indianapolis this week. Assuming we get no surprises on the injury report, this will be an eight-unit selection.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Colts have moved to being a 1.5-point favorite, as there has been sharp money placed on the host.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps are all copying my NFL Pick of the Month! They’ve been pounding the Colts like crazy throughout the week, with the spread rising all the way to -2.5. The Titans won’t have Julio Jones, while the Colts will be getting T.Y. Hilton, Braden Smith and Rock Ya-Sin back in the lineup. It sucks we lost some percentage points with the Colts line moving up, but I still love this selection.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is very frustrating. I loved the Colts, but was waiting for some injury reports. The sharps bet them up to -2.5 -120. I thought we could get a better line, so I waited. That never happened, as the sharps continued to bet Indianapolis up to -3. I can’t find a viable -2.5 anywhere. I’ll continue to look Sunday morning, but the best I can find now is -2.5 -131 at Bookmaker. The best -3 is for -105 at Bovada. Everyone on the Colts is healthy, so I still love them at -3 -105.

FINAL THOUGHTS II: I found a better -2.5. Bookmaker has a -120 vig, which is worth it because three is the primary key number.

Los Angeles Rams (6-1) at Houston Texans (1-6)
Line: Rams by 16.5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I’m beginning with the Texans because I’d like to point out that in the old days, back before every Web site had a sportsbook, there would not be a point spread on a game like this. That’s because it’s unclear which quarterback will start for the Texans this week.

Tyrod Taylor has been sidelined since suffering an injury just prior to halftime against the Browns in Week 2. He’ll be returning to practice this week, however, so he has a very real chance to play. I don’t need to tell you that there’s an enormous difference between Taylor and Davis Mills. While Taylor has proven himself to be a functional quarterback who can take advantage of his excellent mobility, Mills isn’t an NFL-caliber player. He has covered the spread once since he took over as the starter, which happened to be a game against the sleepwalking Patriots.

Mills won’t be able to generate any offense against the great Rams’ defense, especially with Laremy Tunsil on injured reserve. Taylor, however, would be able to orchestrate some scoring drives. He’ll connect on some deep balls to Brandin Cooks, and he’ll keep the chains moving with some timely scrambles.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I think it’s safe to say that the Rams will generate some offense as well. They were in a 10-0 hole the first time Matthew Stafford touched the ball last week, yet they still managed to prevail. Stafford was nearly flawless, hitting Cooper Kupp for considerable gains on a consistent basis.

Granted, the Rams were battling one of the worst defenses in the NFL, but the Texans aren’t much better. They’ve been generating a middling pass rush with Jon Greenard, and their secondary play is fine in some areas, but they are overmatched versus Stafford and all of his receivers.

The Texans are at their weakest against the run, surrendering 145 combined rushing yards to Chase Edmonds and James Conner last week. Darrell Henderson figures to rebound this week after struggling versus the Lions. Henderson took a huge hit in the third quarter that knocked him out for some time, but he returned later in the game.

RECAP: My pick for this contest will depend on Taylor’s status. If Taylor is out, I’m going to be on the Rams for no units. Mills should be faded at every opportunity, but with the Titans coming up next week, the Rams may look past the Texans. Why would they bring their A+ effort to this game?

However, if Taylor gets the nod, I may bet the Texans. This spread is way off if Taylor is the starting quarterback. My line for this game in such a scenario is Los Angeles -9.5, so we’d be getting value with the Texans if Taylor starts. For the official pick, check back later or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Still no word if Tyrod Taylor will play. I’m sure we’ll know by the next update.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tyrod Taylor will not play. The spread has risen to -16, but that’s not enough. Davis Mills stands no chance in this game if the Rams are focused. The problem is that they may not be. They’re resting some players like Andrew Whitworth and potentially Jalen Ramsey because they have to battle the Titans next week. It doesn’t appear as though they’re taking this game seriously, and yet they still may cover because Houston is so bad with Mills at quarterback.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line has risen to -17 in most sportsbooks. They’re getting some sharp money, likely because Jalen Ramsey is active, while the Texans will be missing Desmond King, who was tasked with covering Cooper Kupp. Despite the line move, you can still get -16.5 at DraftKings. Given the injury news, I’m going to throw a unit on the Rams.

Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) at New York Jets (1-5)
Line: Bengals by 11. Total: 43.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Ja’Marr Chase couldn’t catch a pass two month ago. It seemed like only yesterday that he had four drops in one preseason game. He was deemed a huge bust.

I’d say things have changed. Chase is not only the best rookie receiver; he’s one of the top wideouts in the entire league. Marlon Humphrey, one of the league’s best cornerbacks, tried to stick with him last week and it didn’t work. Chase still had a monstrous performance. The Jets don’t have anyone close to Humphrey’s caliber, so the only way they’ll be able to contain Chase is to smother him with bracket coverage.

That, however, will backfire because Joe Burrow has so many weapons at his disposal. In such a scenario, he’ll be able to target Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and the emerging C.J. Uzomah. Then, there’s Joe Mixon in the backfield, who has a great matchup in this affair. The Jets won’t rattle Burrow either because they don’t have much of a pass rush.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Zach Wilson suffered an injury against the Patriots last week, forcing Mike White onto the field. White, a fifth-round pick from the 2018 NFL Draft, saw his first-ever NFL action in a blowout. He completed 20-of-32 passes, but tossed mostly checkdowns. Many of his targets went to his running backs, Michael Carter and Ty Johnson.

White won’t have a choice but to target his running backs in this contest. His ability is limited, and he doesn’t have the protection to shield him from Cincinnati’s improved defensive line. The Bengals figure to dominate in the trenches and smother White’s receivers, so the dinking and dunking could lead to a field goal drive here and there, but the Jets won’t be doing much scoring.

RECAP: If the Bengals bring their “A” game, they’ll win easily. However, their effort will be in question. They’re coming off their biggest win in years, and they have to battle the rival Browns next week. This is an obvious sandwich game.

That said, I’m still leaning toward the Bengals. They’re a young, enthusiastic team, so I think they would be less prone to low-effort performances. Also, I never want to back terrible quarterbacks on terrible teams. White is reminiscent of Houston’s Davis Mills, who is 1-4 against the spread. I suspect White will have a similar ATS record by the time Wilson returns.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There was some question about who would start for the Jets. Despite the trade for Joe Flacco, Mike White will start in this game. I would have preferred Flacco in this instance because he would have joined with no experience in the system. Still, the Bengals appear to be the correct side. There hasn’t been resistance from the sharps.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets won’t have Corey Davis, but that won’t convince me to bet the Bengals because this is such a potential flat spot for them. I don’t think there’s a guarantee that they’ll be trying their hardest, but there’s a better chance they do so than the Rams will versus the Texans because they’re a young, enthusiastic team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public continues to pound the Bengals. This line has moved to -11.5 at most sportsbooks, but you can get -11 -111 at Bookmaker.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (4-3)
Line: Browns by 5. Total: 43.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Here’s another game in which we don’t know who the starting quarterback will be. Baker Mayfield missed the Thursday night affair with a shoulder injury, and he didn’t practice Monday. It’s looking like Case Keenum will get the nod once again.

Unlike the Tyrod Taylor-Davis Mills dispairty, there’s not much of a difference between an injured Mayfield and Keenum. The latter performed well against the Broncos last week. He was protected well with Jedrick Wills back from injury, and his offensive line might be in even better shape in this contest because Jack Conklin will have more time to recover from his malady. The Steelers generate an incredible pass rush, but the Browns boast one of the top offensive lines in the NFL when everyone is healthy, which appears to be the case at the moment.

Furthermore, Nick Chubb will return from injury as well. D’Ernest Johnson had a stellar performance Thursday night, but Chubb is a different beast. The Steelers looked a bit weak against the run in the second half of the Seattle game in Week 6, so Chubb and Johnson could have success against a front missing Stephon Tuitt and Tyson Alualu.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: No matter who starts at quarterback for the Browns, they’ll have an advantage at the position over the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger looks shot. He can’t complete downfield passes, as his diminished arm strength forces him to dink and dunk as if he were a Davis Mills or Mike White. He’s obviously better than those guys, but he’s a shell of his former self.

It doesn’t help matters that Roethlisberger’s offensive line is in shambles. The Steelers can’t pass protect at all, which bodes poorly against Cleveland’s ferocious defensive front. The Browns will place tons of pressure on Roethlisberger, forcing some turnovers and short passes.

The Steelers won’t be able to get anything on the ground with Najee Harris either. It would be a different story if they had a solid offensive line, but that’s not the case. Harris will do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield, but he’s Pittsburgh’s best hope of generating offense.

RECAP: I loved the Browns at -3, but the sharps had to bet them heavily to bring the line up to -3.5. Even though -3.5 is the most dangerous line to bet in the NFL because most football games are decided by three points, I still like Cleveland.

I’m a big fan of betting on good teams playing with their backup quarterbacks as long as the line doesn’t adjust appropriately. It hasn’t in this case, as I believe the Browns should be six-point favorites with Keenum in this matchup. The Steelers are trash; their 3-3 record is a mirage, as they easily could’ve lost to the Geno Smith-led Seahawks the last time they played a football game. If they were 2-4, or even 1-5 if the completely misleading Week 1 battle against the Bills didn’t occur, imagine what this spread would be.

Despite the line move, I’ll be betting multiple units on the Browns. I’ll be hoping for a -3 later in the week, but considering how much sharp money went on that side, I’m not holding my breath.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Browns at -3, but not at -3.5 yet. That said, there’s good news for Cleveland at this number, and that would be Jack Conklin returning to practice on Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: This sucks. I thought Case Keenum would start, but it’s going to be Baker Mayfield. I suddenly have no interest in the Browns. Don’t get me wrong; Mayfield is better than Keenum, but not if he’s injured. There’s a chance Mayfield is fully healthy now, but I doubt it because he didn’t practice fully the entire week. It seems like he might be returning too early, so this could ultimately hurt Cleveland. I was looking forward to backing the Keenum-led Browns, but I won’t be doing that now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been plenty of sharp and public action on the Browns on Sunday morning. This line has ballooned up to -5, with the best line being for -108 vig at Bookmaker. Again, I’m not as high on Cleveland with Mayfield back in the lineup because he’s probably not going to be 100 percent.

San Francisco 49ers (2-4) at Chicago Bears (3-4)
Line: 49ers by 4.5. Total: 40.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

Video of the Week: Everyone says that the vice president has a stutter. Luckily, he was able to go to speech therapy:



You know, I’m beginning to think that the vice president is not the decent guy he claims himself to be.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: There’s a major injury question mark in this game, and for once, it’s not to a quarterback. Alas, we know Jimmy Garoppolo will start. That’s highly disappointing because Garoppolo has been a pedestrian quarterback this season. He has more turnovers (7) than touchdowns (6) this year, so it’s unclear why the 49ers are unwilling to transition to Trey Lance.

The injury question mark here is to Akiem Hicks. I was willing to bet the Bears last week before it was announced that he wouldn’t play. Hicks is one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL, as the entire dynamics of the defense change when he’s not in the lineup. The Bears are woeful versus the run without him, which bodes poorly in this matchup because the 49ers have a strong rushing attack. Elijah Mitchell was great last week until Kyle Shanahan forgot to run the ball in the second half once again.

If Hicks is on the field, the Bears will be able to limit Mitchell and force Garoppolo into more errors. However, if Hicks is unavailable, the 49ers will gash the Bears, setting up favorable passing downs for Garoppolo, who will connect with Deebo Samuel for plenty of big plays.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Speaking of turnover-prone quarterbacks, Justin Fields committed five give-aways against the Buccaneers. That number would have been six if a teammate of his hadn’t recovered a lost fumble on a strip-sack on the opening drive of the afternoon.

Tampa’s ferocious pass rush was able to put tons of heat on Fields, who got no help from his anemic offensive line. The 49ers will be able to rattle Fields a bit, but their front isn’t as strong as the Buccaneers’ because Dee Ford is not healthy. Fields will have more of an opportunity to beat the opposing secondary this week, which he could do because the 49ers’ cornerbacks are in shambles, as four of the top five players at the position are sidelined.

The Bears will be able to run on the 49ers as well. San Francisco’s ground defense has been weak this year, and Khalil Herbert has been terrific since taking over for the injured David Montgomery and Damien Williams.

RECAP: I’m confused by this spread. What have the 49ers done to warrant being three-point road favorites? Their only wins this year have come against the Lions and Eagles, and they beat the latter by only six points. They’ve lost four in a row since that game, with three defeats coming at home. They lost to the Seahawks and Colts as hosts by seven and 12, respectively.

I know Chicago just got trashed by the Buccaneers, but Tampa Bay is arguably the best team in the NFL. There’s no shame in suffering a blowout loss to Tom Brady. Three weeks ago, the Bears beat the Raiders in Las Vegas, so they should be able to compete with the 49ers at home.

That said, I would need Hicks to play in this game for me to bet Chicago. As mentioned earlier, the Bears are a completely different team with him on the field, so we’ll have to see what his status will be. Check back later, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Bad news for the Bears: Khalil Mack will miss this game. Akiem Hicks could be back though, which would make Chicago bettable at +4.

SATURDAY NOTES: I like the Bears a bit more than I did earlier in the week even though Mack is sidelined. Akiem Hicks practiced fully on Friday, so he should make his return to the field to help the run defense, which is key in this matchup. Meanwhile, the 49ers are favored by four even though they’re going to be missing six defensive starters as well as George Kittle and Trent Williams. Does an injury-ravaged team that has only beaten the Lions and Eagles this year (when healthier) deserve to be favored by four on the road versus a competent opponent that has wins over the Raiders and Bengals? I don’t think so.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has moved up to -4.5 because Trent Williams is active. However, the 49ers are still missing six defensive starters and George Kittle, while the Bears will have Akiem Hicks and Tashaun Gipson back on the field. This spread is out of control, so I love Chicago. The best line is +4.5 -108 at Bookmaker.