NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2019): 3-9-1 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2019): 8-5 (+$1,460)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2019): 8-5-1 (-$1,790)

NFL Picks (2019): 103-75-3 (+$8,400)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

---

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 24, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games







Indianapolis Colts (5-4) at Houston Texans (6-3)
Line: Texans by 3.5. Total: 46.
Thursday, Nov. 21, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None

Week 11 Recap: When you mix horrible handicapping and slightly bad luck, you get Week 11. It was my worst week of the year. I went 8-5-1 overall, which was nice, but -$1,790 financially. Even worse, I likely cost myself tens, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars in the Supercontest. I was first in the Supercontest Gold after Week 8, but I’m now out of the top five because of what happened in Week 11.

I took a stubborn stance against Lamar Jackson and lost 9.7 units as a result. I also made a bad assumption that Drew Brees was injured when he didn’t even show up on the injury report during the week, so that was another six units down the drain.

I was fine with everything else otherwise. The Jets were the first or second public dog to cover this year, while Chicago was the right side Sunday night, but lost because of some terrible luck and a front-door touchdown with a few minutes remaining.

Still, it was a week comprised of mostly horrible handicapping. I’ve learned my lesson, so I anticipate that we’ll be back to our winning ways in Week 12 and beyond.

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



You can buy A Safety and a Field Goal here.

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: It was one thing to see Lamar Jackson go off against an abysmal Houston secondary, but it was another to see Deshaun Watson score just seven points. Of course, this total would’ve been higher if the NFL officials knew what pass interference was. Still, Watson struggled mightily despite his previous success against the blitz. His offensive line had no chance against the Ravens, which doesn’t bode well for this matchup.

The Colts pressure quarterbacks rather effectively, as Justin Houston and Jabaal Sheard are quite capable of annoying passers. They should win their matchups up front, which could cause Watson to struggle again. It’ll be crucial for Indianapolis to harass Watson, given the positive matchup his receivers have against its poor secondary. Watson didn’t fare well the last time he battled the Colts, as he threw two interceptions, thanks to the pressure he saw.

Watson will need to carry his team, given that the running game won’t work very well. Carlos Hyde is a pedestrian back, and Indianapolis’ ground defense has improved markedly ever since it got Darius Leonard back from injury.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts suffered a pair of losses with Brian Hoyer at the helm, so it must have been nice for the organization to have Jacoby Brissett under center last week. Brissett didn’t have a great performance, but he managed the game well. He helped keep drives alive, as Indianapolis kept the ball away from Jacksonville rather effectively.

Brissett should play better against the Texans. He already posted a terrific stat line against them, going 26-of-39 for 326 yards and four touchdowns in the initial meeting – and that was with J.J. Watt on the field! Houston’s pass rush is far worse without Watt, while the secondary is a train wreck. That said, T.Y. Hilton’s potential absence will hurt, while Bradley Roby’s possible return will aid Houston a bit.

It’s unclear if Hilton will play, but we know that Marlon Mack will sit out. Mack fractured his hand versus Jacksonville last week, but backup Jonathan Williams performed well in his absence. Williams won’t have as much success this week versus Houston’s strong run defense.

RECAP: The Colts have the Texans’ number, and I expect them to win this matchup once again. Excluding quarterback and receiver, can you name a position where Houston is superior to Indianapolis? I’d prefer the Colts’ offensive line, tight ends, defensive line (with Watt out), linebacking corps and secondary. The running game is about even with Mack injured (that’s how much I hate Hyde.)

Despite this, the Colts are underdogs of more than a field goal! This is terrific value, as I personally made this line Indianapolis +2.

I’m going to be betting the Colts, but the number of units will depend on whether or not Hilton can play. If Hilton is in, this will be a three- or four-unit wager. If not, I’ll be on Indianapolis for a unit or two.

Our Week 12 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We still don’t know the status of some key players in this matchup, so I’m looking forward to seeing what the inactives lists look like. Check back around 7:45 for my final thoughts and official play on this game!

FINAL THOUGHTS: T.Y. Hilton is playing, which is huge. I like the Colts quite a bit. The only hesitation I have is that Deshaun Watson is coming off a loss, but he may not be 100 percent. The Colts have the better roster and superior coaching staff, and they’re getting the hook. Even better, the +3.5 line is only -102 at Bookmaker. I’m betting three units on Indianapolis.




The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -2.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -5.5.
Computer Model: Texans -4.
DVOA Spread: Texans -1.


The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
A decent chunk of action on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 65% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 27 of the 35 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -4.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Colts 23, Texans 20
Colts +3.5 -102 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$300
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 20, Colts 17

---

Miami Dolphins (2-8) at Cleveland Browns (4-6)
Line: Browns by 11. Total: 46.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

MIAMI OFFENSE: One silver lining to Myles Garrett’s suspension is that the Browns have an easy schedule to close out the year. That begins against the Dolphins, who have the worst offensive line in the NFL. Garrett’s presence would make the pass rush devastating in this matchup, but I still think Cleveland can win up front, especially if Olivier Vernon returns from injury.

I expect Ryan Fitzpatrick to continue to struggle as a result. Fitzpatrick has enjoyed some nice performances this season, but I think last week was a harbinger of things to come. We haven’t even seen Fitzpatrick at his worst yet, so that could happen in this contest, especially given that his receivers will be bottled up by Cleveland’s talented cornerbacks.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I counted last week that the Dolphins have five practice squad-caliber players starting on their defense. They don’t stop the run well at all, so Nick Chubb should be able to bounce back from a couple of lackluster performances. Meanwhile, Kareem Hunt will continue to rack up tons of targets and receptions. His return from suspension has been a boon to the Browns’ scoring attack, as he gives them an electric presence on third down that they lacked otherwise.

As bad as the Dolphins are versus the run, they’re far worse against the pass. Nik Needham has emerged as a stellar cornerback, but the rest of Miami’s secondary is dreadful with Xavien Howard injured, while the pass rush is non-existent. Needham should be able to limit Odell Beckham Jr., but I expect Jarvis Landry to have a dominant performance out of the slot in a revenge game against his former team. Baker Mayfield should have no problem getting the ball to him, as he won’t see any sort of pressure.

RECAP: I’m going to side with the Browns, but I won’t be betting them at -11. This spread is a tad too high. I made this line Cleveland -9.5, and last week’s DVOA numbers would’ve had the same exact projected line. The advance spread was -9, and yet it jumped two points despite Garrett’s suspension. That doesn’t seem right.

However, I’m not backing the Dolphins either at the inflated number. They’re just a dreadful team that got lucky with some of their covers. Also, the public is pounding them, so that’s another reason to choose Cleveland.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public continues to back the Dolphins, which makes the Browns appealing. I’m still worried about the Browns’ psyche after what happened last Thursday night, and the fact that Olivier Vernon hasn’t practiced yet this week makes things worse because the Browns might be without their top two edge rushers.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ryan Fitzpatrick showed up on the injury report late in the week. He’ll play, but he may not be 100 percent. That makes the Browns slightly appealing, but they’ll be missing both Olivier Vernon and Myles Garrett, so I’m wondering where the pass rush will come from. Also, will Cleveland be up for this game after what happened with Garrett? I don’t think I’ll be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has risen to -11, but that doesn’t affect my decision-making at all. I’d like the Browns if I weren’t concerned that they could be looking behind the Myles Garrett stuff and/or looking ahead to next week’s game against the Steelers. Miami is not an option with an injured Ryan Fitzpatrick.


The Motivation. Edge: Browns.
The Browns could be flat following the Myles Garrett incident. Plus, they have to battle the Steelers again next week.


The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -9.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Browns -9.
Computer Model: Browns -12.
DVOA Spread: Browns -11.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
People aren’t done betting the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 57% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Browns -12.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Cloudy, 40 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Browns 31, Dolphins 17
Browns -11 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Browns 41, Dolphins 24

---

Denver Broncos (3-7) at Buffalo Bills (7-3)
Line: Bills by 4. Total: 37.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 38-44-3 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets this week:

Patriots -3.5

Cardinals +13.5

Chiefs -4

Steelers +2.5

Cowboys -7

Jets +1

The books absolutely destroyed the public in Weeks 9 and 10. Conversely, Week 11 was for the squares. The Patriots, Cardinals, Cowboys, Chiefs and Jets were all publicly backed sides that covered, with only the Steelers loss being a win for the books. Lopsided bets are now 25-28 ATS on the year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Lions -3.5

Seahawks +2

Patriots -6

Titans -3

Giants +6.5

Panthers +9.5

So weird. Three of these teams are underdogs, including public dog Seattle, and Jeff Driskel is quarterbacking the team getting the most money this week! What a time to be alive.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen had one of his best performances of the year last week. However, he was battling the Dolphins, which hardly counts. This matchup will be far more difficult for him.

Unlike Miami, the Broncos apply heavy pressure on the quarterback. Von Miller has a dream matchup against right tackle Cody Ford, so Allen won’t have the luxury of standing in the pocket for several seconds on every snap. Making matters worse for Allen, the Broncos have an elite cornerback in Chris Harris Jr. to smother John Brown. Buffalo’s No. 1 receiver had a tremendous performance against the Dolphins, but Harris will make sure that doesn’t happen again.

The Bills will have trouble running the ball as well. The Broncos allowed Leonard Fournette to trample them in an early-season contest, but they were banged up and didn’t have their starting defensive line intact at that time. The injured defensive linemen returned after that, and Denver’s front has been one of the best run-stuffing units since.

DENVER OFFENSE: Conversely, the Bills have been very leaky against the run. We saw this a couple of weeks ago when Adrian Peterson eclipsed the century mark against them. If Peterson was able to do that, imagine what Phillip Lindsay will be able to accomplish. It took the Broncos half the season to determine that Lindsay should be their primary ball carrier. Lindsay rewarded them with a nice showing against Minnesota last week. Lindsay will be far better in this easier matchup.

Quarterback Brandon Allen will need Lindsay to be explosive because he faces an elite Buffalo pass defense. The Bills are far better against aerial attacks, so I can’t imagine Allen really doing anything positive. He’ll be a sitting duck in the pocket against the Bills’ ferocious pass rush unless right tackle Ja’Wuan James can return from injury.

The one positive aspect of the Broncos’ passing offense is Courtland Sutton, who has been a beast in recent weeks. It’s a shame that Sutton doesn’t have superior quarterback play aiding him, yet he’s still producing at a high level. Tre’Davious White doesn’t shadow, so Sutton could make some nice catches in this contest.

RECAP: I’m going to bet several units on the Broncos this week. I wish this line were higher, but the sharps took care of that. This spread opened Denver +5, yet was quickly bet down to +4 by the pros.

I imagine this was done for various reasons. Perhaps they like Lindsay against Buffalo’s run defense as much as I do. They may also regard the Bills as an overrated team. Buffalo nearly lost at home to Cincinnati and Miami earlier in the year, and it allowed the Dwayne Haskins-led Redskins to hang around in the fourth quarter recently. The Bills also would’ve lost by double digits in Cleveland if Nick Chubb managed to score once on his six goal-line tries.

Here’s another reason the sharps might be eager to fade Buffalo: This is an obvious look-ahead spot. Following this “easy” game, the Bills have to battle the Cowboys (in four days!), Ravens, Steelers and Patriots. This is their final respite until Week 17, so with that sort of gauntlet on the horizon, they may not take the Broncos very seriously.

I’ll be on Denver for three units. I’m not crazy about betting on Brandon Allen, and I wish this were a better number like +6, but the Broncos are still worth a healthy wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Bookmaker is one of the sharpest books, and they’ve dropped this down to +3.5. I’m going to lock this in soon because the other sportsbooks may follow suit. I’m just waiting for injury news on some of the Denver offensive linemen on the practice participation report.

SATURDAY NOTES: I want to lock this in at +4, but the Broncos have some injury question marks. Four offensive linemen of theirs are questionable for this game. Ja’Wuan James was limited in practice all week, so perhaps that’s a good sign. Guard Ronald Leary was limited Thursday and Friday, so he probably will play. Conversely, center Connor McGovern and guard Dalton Risner had just one practice, which was limited. This is a shame because I really liked the Broncos, but I don’t think I can bet them if they’ll be down at least two offensive linemen. Check back Sunday morning when the actives/inactives are posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ja’Wuan James is out, but the other three Denver offensive linemen who were questionable are all active. That is huge, and it makes me sad that I didn’t use the Broncos as one of my Supercontest picks. Luckily, we can make last-second decisions with real betting, so I’m going to wager three units on Denver. Bookmaker allows you to buy up to +4 at -113.


The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.
Following this game, the Bills have to battle the Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers and Patriots. I can’t see them being focused versus Denver.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -6.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -5.5.
Computer Model: Bills -5.
DVOA Spread: Pick.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 54% (19,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Bills are 9-34 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Opening Line: Bills -5.

Opening Total: 35.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 40 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Broncos 21, Bills 20
Broncos +4 -113 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$340
Over 37 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 20, Bills 3

---

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-10)
Line: Steelers by 6.5. Total: 37.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Here’s some hate mail from last week:



I’m not kidding, by the way. I actually have a secret lab beneath my garage where I run experimental tests like this. The monkey was great in Weeks 3-10, but failed in Week 11. Bad monkey!

Here’s a major conundrum:



Oh man, what do I do? I want to take this sage’s professional advice, but how in the world will I know that it’s his!?

Here’s someone who thinks I’m good talent evaluator, but not as good as Ozzie Newsome:



This seems like a nice fellow. He praised me for a correct pick and also shares my appreciation of Jimmy Clausen. Cool!

This guy isn’t so nice…



Wow, what a weird thing to say. I don’t understand anything in this comment. What do the Buccaneers have to do with the pick of the month?

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Thursday night games are ridiculous. There are far more injuries in those contests – I wrote about it extensively in my book, A Safety and a Field Goal – and this past Thursday was no exception. The Steelers lost JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and James Conner to injuries. Smith-Schuster even got hurt twice on the same play, injuring his knee while suffering a concussion!

It’ll be shocking if Smith-Schuster will be able to suit up, while Johnson is more questionable. The Steelers missing their top two receivers would be devastating in most matchups. Luckily for them, battling the Bengals doesn’t count as “most matchups.” Cincinnati’s secondary stinks, while its linebacking corps is the worst in the NFL. Fill-in top receiver James Washington has been performing better lately, so he could have a nice showing in this contest. I especially like Vance McDonald against those aforementioned linebackers.

Meanwhile, Conner’s absence would hurt against most teams. Again, however, the Bengals are dreadful. We’ll see more of Jaylen Samuels, who should be dynamic in space against Cincinnati’s horrible linebackers.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Pittsburgh’s defense has been carrying Mason Rudolph during the team’s 5-3 run since Week 3. Its pass rush has been terrific, as T.J. Watt has been enjoying an All-Pro season, while Bud Dupree has finally lived up to expectations. Both players have a tremendous matchup edge in this contest, as the Bengals have two of the worst starting tackles in the NFL. The one caveat is that Cordy Glenn may finally return from injury. Glenn wasn’t on the injury report last week, yet was still inactive. I imagine this means that Glenn is close to returning, but he has quit on his team, so who knows?

The Steelers have some nice talent in their secondary as well, particularly Minkah Fitzpatrick, who has been a tremendous play-maker for them. The Bengals just lost upstart receiver Auden Tate to an injury on a crushing hit last week, so unless A.J. Green returns, they won’t have the talent at wideout to overcome Pittsburgh’s great coverage.

Pittsburgh has also been very forceful against the run, so Joe Mixon once again will struggle on the ground. This will put Ryan Finley into long-yardage situations, which won’t be ideal. Finley has been dreadful in replacing Andy Dalton thus far, and I don’t expect that to change in this very difficult matchup.

RECAP: I’m slightly concerned about the computer model thinking that Pittsburgh -3 is the correct number, but I’m more confident with my own projection of -7. Thus, I’m going to side with the Steelers, though I wish we were getting a better spread.

I may end up betting this game. I’d love to have one of Smith-Schuster or Johnson back from injury, and I need to know that Glenn and Green won’t be on the field for Cincinnati. Under these conditions, I might bet a unit or two on the Steelers, but this wager won’t be anything crazy.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some good news for the Steelers, as Diontae Johnson and Benny Snell both practiced fully Wednesday, so Pittsburgh will be getting some reinforcements back from injury.

SATURDAY NOTES: Diontae Johnson and Benny Snell will play, so the Steelers don’t have to worry about missing key personnel. What I would be concerned about is Cincinnati playing with more intensity than them because this is its “Super Bowl.” I don’t think I’m going to bet the Steelers for that reason.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Cordy Glenn is finally playing! This is huge. I’ve been saying that the Bengals will play better whenever Glenn returns, so I’m down for changing my pick to the Bengals.


The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.
The Steelers will have way more fans in the stands than the Bengals will. However, they already demolished the Bengals, so Cincinnati has revenge on its side. This is the Bengals’ Super Bowl.


The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -7.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -7.
Computer Model: Steelers -3.
DVOA Spread: Steelers -3.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Surprisingly, there’s not lots of action on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 53% (14,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Steelers have won 21 of the last 26 meetings.

Steelers are 24-40 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Bengals are 18-9 ATS against the Steelers if they lost to them previously the same season in the last 27 instances.

Opening Line: Steelers -7.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Cloudy, 41 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Bengals 17
Bengals +6.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 16, Bengals 10

---

New York Giants (2-8) at Chicago Bears (4-6)
Line: Bears by 6.5. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Giants.

Contest Announcement time!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

Our Survivor Contest has returned as well. It’s free to enter, and you can win $350!

We’re partnered with Draft Kings this year. Sign up at Draft Kings and use promo code “Walterfootball” for a bonus with your first deposit. Seriously, it’s free money – go sign up!

And finally, here’s our NFL Picks Contest, which is free and contains cash prizes.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Some sportsbooks don’t have a spread posted on this game as of this writing, and I can’t say I understand why. Mitchell Trubisky has been dreadful, so Chase Daniel can’t be that much of a downgrade. He had an awful showing against the Raiders the last time we saw him, but given that Oakland is now 6-4, I think we can excuse what Daniel did in that contest. Trubisky’s hip pointer could keep him out of this game, so it’s possible that Daniel might be an upgrade.

The problem is that Daniel won’t be well protected. Chicago’s offensive line was stellar last season, but has regressed tremendously this year. The strength of the Giants’ defense – or rather, the lone non-weakness – is on the defensive line, as New York added Leonard Williams to play alongside Dexter Lawrence, so some interior pressure could bother Daniel. Lawrence and Williams will also keep David Montgomery from having a big game.

That said, the Bears have a great mismatch edge at receiver. Jalen Ramsey erased Allen Robinson this past Sunday night, but Robinson will rebound against a secondary that hasn’t been able to cover anyone this year.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants possess a big mismatch edge on this side of the ball as well. The Bears haven’t been able to stop the run since losing Akiem Hicks, so it was hardly a surprise that Todd Gurley had a great performance Sunday night, despite running behind the worst offensive line in the NFL (not counting Miami’s.) If a limited Gurley could perform well, imagine what Saquon Barkley will be able to accomplish. Barkley was limited to just one rushing yard the last time we saw him, but that was against the Jets’ elite run defense. He’ll be eager to redeem himself in this contest.

The Bears are far better against the pass than the run, so it’s essential that the Giants see some of their play-makers return from injury. It sounds as though that’ll happen. Sterling Shepard is practicing fully, while Evan Engram has expressed optimism about playing this week. The presence of Shepard and Engram will distract the Bears from Golden Tate, who should be able to abuse beleaguered slot cornerback Buster Skrine.

The one concern I have for the Giants’ offense in this matchup is Daniel Jones’ ball security. Jones has been understandably inconsistent as a rookie. He has looked great at times, but he has fumbled far too often. I’m worried Khalil Mack or Leonard Floyd will have at least one strip-sack against him.

RECAP: I don’t understand why this spread is so high. I made this line Chicago -3.5, as I don’t have the Bears rated that much above the Giants. We don’t have this week’s DVOA numbers yet, but last week’s figures say that Chicago -5.5 is the right line. At +6.5, that still gives us the key number of six.

I think this spread is inflated because everyone bet on the Giants against the Jets and lost. I had the Jets in that contest, in part because the Giants were missing two of their top offensive play-makers. At least one will return this week, so the Giants will be better, and I like their matchup against Chicago’s horrible run defense anyway.

It’s also worth noting that the Bears could be focused on next week, given that they have to play four days after this on Thanksgiving. I don’t know why they would be focused on battling the Giants, given that their playoff hopes just took a major hit in a frustrating loss to the Rams.

This will be one of my top plays of the week. The unit count, which could be as high as five, will depend on the betting action. It is currently heavily skewed toward the Giants, albeit in a small sample size.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to +6 in some books, as there’s sharp action dragging this line down. I’m glad the sharps are on my side because this high spread is very confusing. I want to lock this in, but I’m just waiting on some Nate Solder news. He’s in the concussion protocol. Danny Trevathan is also an injury question mark for the Bears. His absence would be a nice boost for the Giants’ offense.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m posting this a day early because I want to lock in this pick. All of the Giants offensive linemen will play, while the Bears will be missing Danny Trevathan, which opens up a nice play on New York. This will be a four-unit selection, and I’m taking the +6.5 -114 at Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I already locked this in, and I’m glad I did because the sharps bet this down to +6.


The Motivation. Edge: Giants.
The Bears have to play on Thanksgiving in four days.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -3.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -7.
Computer Model: Bears -10.
DVOA Spread: Bears -7.


The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
Sharp action on the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 62% (14,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -7.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 41 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Bears 24, Giants 23
Giants +6.5 -114 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$400
Giants +225 (0.5 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$50
Over 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 19, Giants 14

---

Oakland Raiders (6-4) at New York Jets (3-7)
Line: Raiders by 3. Total: 45.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. The biggest news to come out of the NFL last weekend was the Browns-Steelers fight that led to Myles Garrett and Maurkice Pouncey getting suspended. I won’t really touch on it much here, however, because I graded the suspensions for both players in the Disaster Grades page. Meanwhile, Kenny Ortiz and I discussed what happened on video:



2. Colin Kaepernick had a workout Saturday. Leading up to it, he said he looked forward to seeing head coaches in attendance. No head coaches showed up, of course, because the workout took place on a Saturday. The head coaches were preparing for games the following day. I’d love to know why the workout didn’t take place on a Monday or a Tuesday.

Following the workout, Kaepernick told the scouts in attendance, “When you go back, tell your owners to stop being scared.”

Ironically, Kaepernick ruined his chance of signing with the Ravens a couple of years ago because he compared the team’s owner to a slave owner. Maybe they wouldn’t be scared if he didn’t compare them to slave owners!

There’s nothing really to say about Kaepernick’s workout, as it was a publicity stunt more than anything. Kaepernick was benched in favor of Blaine Gabbert toward the end of his tenure. He regressed each season in the NFL because he refused to study film. He wasn’t a good quarterback three years ago, so considering all of the baggage he comes with, there’s really no reason for any team to sign him to be their backup.

3. I’ve been discussing funny things my dad has said in this section for the past several weeks. My dad claimed that Ezekiel Elliott is the most-hated player in the NFL because “he’s disgusting” and that everyone hates Andy Reid because “he looks like a pig.” My dad then took it to another level when he, pretending to be Baker Mayfield, yelled, “put my dick in your mouth” when Mayfield’s girlfriend asked for a straw for her lemonade in one of those commercials.

My dad had another great moment recently. I was watching Thursday Night Football with him, as usual, when this commercial aired:



When the chef guy was featured, my dad tilted his head as if he were trying to recognize him. He then asked:

“Who is that? A former football player?”

I explained to him that this guy was Chef Ramsey Gordon, a chef on a TV show who yells at people. At least, that’s what I think he is. Forgive me for not completely knowing. I know the most famous one of those, Chef Boyardee, but I’m not quite familiar with Chef Gordon’s cooking. And why would I be, when Chef Boyardee makes such a great product? I imagine Chef Gordon wishes that he were as good as Chef Boyardee one day, but that, sadly, is unlikely to happen.

My advice to Chef Gordon is to attempt to make a better version of Spaghetti O’s. I don’t think it’s possible, and I don’t even know if Chef Gordon knows how to even make Spaghetti O’s, but I suppose anything is possible.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: I mentioned in the previous capsule that the Jets’ elite run defense limited Saquon Barkley to just one rushing yard a couple of weeks ago. New York then put the clamps on both Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice, rendering the Redskins’ offense completely inept.

Limiting Josh Jacobs will be far more challenging. Jacobs is a punishing runner who has the luxury of rushing behind one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. I imagine Jacobs will have some nice runs because of how great his blocking happens to be. The offensive line is the primary reason why the Raiders are an upstart at 6-4, and they’ll once again do a great job of protecting Derek Carr.

Carr will need all the help he can get against a Jets secondary that has improved markedly in recent weeks. This is because of sixth-round rookie Blessuan Austin. The Rutgers product was inserted into the lineup two weeks ago and has been playing out of his mind since. He has locked down his side of the field in both contests. This is a small sample size, but he’s at least far better than what the Jets possessed at corner prior to his return from the PUP list. Austin might be able to erase Tyrell Williams, so Carr will have to focus more on throwing to Darren Waller, who could struggle against the Jets’ talented safeties.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Inky, Blinky, Clyde and Sue are long gone, as it seems as though Sam Darnold has exorcised all of the ghosts and goblins that haunted him against the Patriots. Darnold played tremendously against the Redskins. Granted, it was just the Redskins, but Darnold was prolific, save for one stupid decision on an interception.

It’s fair to be skeptical of Darnold because of the easy opponent, but this is another tremendous matchup for him. Oakland’s secondary, already in shambles, lost two starters to injury against the Chargers a couple of Thursday nights ago. Bengals quarterback Ryan Finley couldn’t completely take advantage of this liability, and yet he still did a decent job of moving the chains at times. Darnold will have more success, as the Raiders don’t have the personnel to cover Jamison Crowder. Robby Anderson might get open for a deep gain or two, though rookie cornerback Trayvon Mullen is playing well. The dreadful linebackers, meanwhile, will have trouble defending Le’Veon Bell in space.

The one caveat concerning the Jets’ offense in this game will be the health of Kelvin Beachum. The left tackle has played well in the past two games in his return from his absence, but he aggravated an injury against the Redskins, so it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to play. This is very important, based on how well rookie edge rusher Maxx Crosby has performed. Beachum has the ability to hold his own against Crosby.

RECAP: It’s hilarious that the public was right for the wrong reasons last week. They bet the Jets heavily because they just wanted to fade the Redskins, yet they lucked into New York emerging as the team some thought they’d be prior to this year, thanks to Beachum’s health and Austin’s sudden dominant presence in the secondary.

Beachum’s health is critical for this matchup. If Beachum can suit up, I think there’s a very good chance the Jets will improve to 4-1 in contests that he and Darnold have played together.

However, even if Beachum were to sit out, the Jets should still have a shot at prevailing, thanks to Austin’s emergence and the defensive line’s ability to stop the run. Also, consider the fact that the Raiders have to battle the Chiefs in their biggest game of the year next week. I can’t imagine them being too focused on battling the 3-7 Jets, given that they have to prepare for Kansas City.

I’m definitely on the Jets. This could end up being one of my top plays of the week if Beachum is able to take the field, as the public doesn’t seem to understand how good the Jets have gotten, despite their “correct” bets last week. This misconception has given us tremendous line value with the Jets, who should be one-point favorites by my numbers in a conservative projection.

Beachum’s status is crucial, so I’ll have updates later in the week. Check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a public-sharp dichotomy for this game, as the casuals are betting on the Raiders, while the pros like the Jets, as evidenced by the juice growing on New York +3. I don’t think it’s the worst idea to lock in the Jets, just in case this line drops to +2.5. I’d like to at least see a Thursday injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was worried about Kelvin Beachum’s status because the Jets’ offensive line has improved markedly ever since he returned from injury. He’s listed as questionable, but was limited in practice all week. Hopefully, this is a good sign. I’ll have my official pick Sunday morning, but I may go as high as four units if Beachum is active.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kelvin Beachum is playing, so I love the Jets. This is a four-unit play, and I want to buy up to +3.5. You can do so at -116 on Bookmaker or -120 on BetUS. It’s worth it to bet up because the most likely result of this game is the Raiders winning by three.


The Motivation. Edge: Jets.
The Raiders’ biggest game of the year is next week, as they’ll be taking on the Chiefs for first place in the AFC West.


The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -1.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Raiders -3.
Computer Model: Raiders -5.
DVOA Spread: Raiders -3.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 56% (23,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Raiders are 20-41 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Raiders -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Light rain, 44 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Jets 23, Raiders 20
Jets +3 -116 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$400
Jets +155 (0.5 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$75
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 34, Raiders 3

---

Carolina Panthers (5-5) at New Orleans Saints (8-2)
Line: Saints by 10. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. It always sucks to lead off the notes with an injury, but that’s necessary with Tua Tagovailoa being carted being off the field during the win over Mississippi State.

Nick Saban is one of the best head coaches in college football history, but he’s had a rough season. He didn’t have a good game plan versus LSU despite having extra time to prepare, and then he had a worse coaching moment the following week.

Can someone explain why Tagovailoa was on the field when the team was up 35-7? It’d be one thing if he were healthy, but Tagovailoa has been dealing with an injury. He hurt his hip rather than his ankle, but this may have been avoided had Tagovailoa maintained his complete mobility. It’s also not uncommon for hurt players to suffer other injuries because they’re overcompensating.

I Either way, it was a huge mistake for Saban to keep Tagovailoa on the field. In fact, it was downright irresponsible. Tagovailoa went to play for Alabama so that Saban could prepare him to play in the NFL. Saban’s decision-making might end up hurting Tagovailoa’s standing in the NFL Draft.

I don’t know what Tagovailoa’s outlook is for the rest of the year, but he should never play for Alabama again. He needs to think about his future, and Saban clearly has no regard for it because he wants his national champion quarterback to practice 2-minute drills against crappy opponents.

2. UPDATE: What I wrote earlier occurred before the severity of Tagovailoa’s injury was known. Tagovailoa was flown to a hospital with a freak dislocated hip injury, and he’s officially out for the season. It sounds like it’ll be difficult for him to play at the start of 2020, and there’s a chance he may never be able to play football again. A doctor on Twitter compared the injury to the one Bo Jackson suffered. Let’s hope he’s wrong.

I think this injury should serve as a shockwave across college football. Had Tagovailoa opted to sit out this season – allowing him to make money via commercials instead – he still would’ve been the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Now, there’s a chance he won’t even be chosen in the first round – Charlie Campbell says top 20 is still possible in his College Football Game Recaps – but his status will greatly depend on medical evaluations. We can only hope that Tagovailoa took out an insurance policy.

Given that playing an extra season negatively impacted Tagovailoa’s draft status, it should send a clear message to other top prospects. If I’m Justin Herbert, or Joe Burrow, or even Trevor Lawrence, who isn’t even eligible for this upcoming draft, I would quit playing college football right now and begin preparing for the pros. Not only will this keep them healthy, it’ll allow them to make money off their likeness via commercials. Until the NCAA changes its archaic rules, no top prospect should ever set foot on a collegiate football field.

3. The live reaction on ESPN to Tagovailoa’s injury was ridiculous. The analysts listened to what Saban said about having Tagovailoa practicing the 2-minute drill, and both guys – one was Mark Sanchez – said something like, “That’s a good argument. That makes sense.”

How the hell does that make sense? Tagovailoa is arguably the best quarterback in college football. He won one national championship and participated in another. What in the world is there for him to gain from practicing the 2-minute drill against crappy Mississippi State? If anything, I’d think scoring a touchdown versus Mississippi State in the 2-minute drill would be deterimental, as it might provide Alabama with a false sense of confidence. It’s not like Tagovailoa was going up against the 1985 Chicago Bears!

I wonder if the ESPN analysts refused to criticize Saban because they were scared of losing potential interviews with him. It reminded me of the super-hot Amy Robach saying that ABC didn’t air her Jeffery Epstein story because the network didn’t want to lose the opportunity to interview loser royals Harry and Kate, or whatever those idiots’ names are.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: As mentioned at the very top of this page, I was greatly mistaken for assuming Drew Brees had a rib injury last week. Brees grabbed at his ribs in an inexplicable loss to the Falcons, but wasn’t on the injury report ahead of the Tampa Bay game. Brees was prolific, albeit against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

The Panthers have a far better secondary than what the Buccaneers possess, but Brees could still have plenty of success in this matchup. He’s protected by the best offensive line in the NFL, which received an unnecessary upgrade last week when Nick Easton stepped in for the injured Andrus Peat. Easton was far better than Peat has ever been, so I expect the Saints to keep using him at left guard. He and the other four blockers will shield Brees very well, neutralizing a strong Carolina pass rush.

Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara figures to abuse the Panthers’ poor run defense. Carolina hasn’t been able to stop the run well since losing Kawann Short to injury, so Kamara, who looked completely healthy for the first time in a while last week, figures to have a dominant showing in this matchup.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: While the Saints protect Brees better than any other quarterback in the NFL, the Panthers struggle to shield their quarterback. The Falcons, who don’t even pressure opposing signal-callers very well, sacked Kyle Allen five times, as rookie left tackle Greg “Mr. Reliable” Little struggled mightily. Little is in a world of trouble against Marcus Davenport, while Cameron Jordan will harass Allen from the other side.

Allen self-destructed last week, throwing four interceptions. I noted a week ago that Allen was extremely fortunate not to have several turnovers against the Packers, as the Green Bay defensive backs dropped several should-have-been interceptions. Allen figures to have more turnovers in this matchup, especially if Marshon Lattimore returns to blanket one of his receivers.

The Panthers’ sole source of offense will be from Christian McCaffrey. This is problematic, as the Saints have one of the top run-stuffing defenses in the NFL. McCaffrey will do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield, but his back could hurt after this game, given that he’ll have to carry his team by himself.

RECAP: I initially thought this spread was too high. The advance line on this game was New Orleans -6.5. That’s the exact number I have listed in my projections. This seemed like a nice opportunity to bet on Carolina, given that we were getting the key number of seven at +9.5.

However, the other projections think this spread is too small. The computer model believes New Orleans -12 is the correct line, while DVOA lists -11. If these spreads are correct, we’re losing out a key number of 10 by betting on the Panthers.

I’m torn on this game as a result, as I have nothing else to go on. I ultimately decided to go with my first instinct and side with the Panthers, but I’m not going to bet on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I mentioned this on the podcast video with Jacob Camenker, but DVOA lists the Panthers as the 27th-best team in the NFL, which is crazy. Perhaps we’ve seen evidence of that in two blowout losses to the 49ers and Falcons. I’m thinking about switching my pick to the Saints.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m switching my pick to the Saints. I can’t get over the fact that the Panthers have been demolished twice in recent weeks and that they’re ranked 27th in DVOA. The Saints seem to be getting better every week, so they shouldn’t have a problem dismantling Carolina.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp action has moved the Saints to -10, so I’m glad I switched my pick. I’m not going to bet this, however.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -9.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -6.5.
Computer Model: Saints -12.
DVOA Spread: Saints -11.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 51% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Saints are 46-38 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Saints -7.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Saints 31, Panthers 17
Saints -10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 34, Panthers 31

---

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-7) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7)
Line: Falcons by 3.5. Total: 51.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I don’t know if it’s because I’m a masochist, but I’m very close to betting heavily on the Buccaneers. There’s one thing holding me back, and that would be Jameis Winston.

More specifically, Winston’s ankle. He sprained it against the Saints. Bruce Arians said Winston will play if he’s healthy, but it’s unclear if Winston will be limited at all by it. There’s also a chance that he’ll be fine leading up to this contest, and that he’ll aggravate the injury during Sunday’s action. Either way, Winston has a positive matchup against Atlanta’s poor secondary. The Falcons have been far better against the pass since the bye, but I’m not sure how sustainable that is. I have to imagine that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will be able to take advantage of their matchup advantages against the Falcons’ lackluster cornerbacks. If Winston is healthy, he should be able to deliver the ball to them.

One other area in which the Falcons have improved since the bye is their pass rush. They couldn’t get any sort of heat on the quarterback earlier in the year, but they sacked Drew Brees and Kyle Allen a combined 12 times in the past two weeks. Winston was jittery in the pocket last week, so if Atlanta’s pass rush is for real, we could see a repeat of that this Sunday.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: While the Falcons possess a poor secondary, what they have is effectively the Legion of Boom when comparing it to Tampa Bay’s defensive backfield. The Buccaneers have dreadful cornerbacks, and yet their safeties are even worse. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will have a very easy time getting open. Meanwhile, Austin Hooper will be able to take advantage of a very easy matchup if he manages to return from injury.

The Falcons have always maintained prolific weapons to go along with Matt Ryan, but the problem, at least earlier in the season, was the pass protection. Atlanta’s offensive line blocked poorly prior to the bye, but that has changed since. Unless this is a fluke, the Falcons will be able to shield Ryan from Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett, who has cooled off after his hot start.

I don’t anticipate Atlanta running the ball very well, even if Devonta Freeman returns from injury. The Buccaneers have the best run-stopping defenses in the NFL, so Freeman won’t be able to do anything on the ground. Freeman could, however, have success as a receiver like Alvin Kamara did last week when he caught all 10 of his targets.

RECAP: I like the Buccaneers in this game for several reasons. First of all, this spread is inflated. The advance line was Atlanta -3, but it has ballooned to -4.5 based on what happened last week. The Falcons may not be focused because they have to battle the Saints next week, and they’ll be playing on Thanksgiving, which is four days after this contest. Also, there is a ton of public action coming in on the host.

All of these factors would normally lead me to bet heavily on the Buccaneers. However, as mentioned earlier, Winston may not be 100 percent. Again, even if he plays, he could aggravate his ankle injury, and then we could be in a situation where we have to root for Ryan Griffin to contend in a shootout with Ryan. That definitely would not be ideal.

It sucks that we lost a potential big play on the Buccaneers. Thanks to Winston’s sprained ankle, this either has to be a non-bet or a small wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no update on Jameis Winston’s sprained ankle. He’s probably OK, but that’s not something I want to bet on either way. I might switch my pick to the Falcons.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s nothing about Winston’s sprained ankle on the injury report, outside of him practicing fully. I’m still a bit worried about it, and it’ll keep me from wagering on the Buccaneers even though the sharps are betting them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have bet the Buccaneers down to +3.5. I can understand why. There’s been no sign that Jameis Winston’s ankle is an issue. If you can still get +4, I’d wager a unit on it.


The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.
The Falcons just won two big games on the road. They could be looking ahead to playing on Thanksgiving in four days.


The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -4.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.
Computer Model: Falcons -7.
DVOA Spread: Falcons -3.


The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
All aboard the Falcons’ bandwagon!

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 72% (18,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Falcons have won the last 5 meetings.

Road Team is 95-59 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.

Opening Total: 54.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Falcons 28, Buccaneers 27
Buccaneers +3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 35, Falcons 22

---

Detroit Lions (3-6-1) at Washington Redskins (1-9)
Line: Lions by 4. Total: 40.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

Video of the Week: If you’re not a fan of Star Trek: The Next Generation, feel free to ignore this. If you are a fan, you’ll really want to see this:



This is awesome, and I can’t wait until more updates are made to it. Oh, wait, CBS put a stop to it by sending the creators a cease and desist. I never knew that CBS was run by f**king a**hole douches, but I guess you learn something new every day.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins looked pathetic last week against the Jets. Dwayne Haskins was especially dreadful, as he had no pocket awareness to speak of. It looked like he never even played football before, and he struggled in what was perceived to be an easy matchup. As discussed above, however, the Jets are far better now at defending the pass because of Blessuan Austin’s emergence.

The Lions struggle against aerial attacks, and I don’t anticipate them improving in this regard. They have Darius Slay to take care of Terry McLaurin, but the rest of their secondary is not very good. Meanwhile, they don’t have much of a pass rush, so Haskins figures to have more time in the pocket than he enjoyed last week.

One problem for Haskins last week was that Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice couldn’t get anything on the ground, so that put him into unfavorable down-and-distance situations. The Jets are terrific against ground attacks – they limited Saquon Barkley to one rushing yard – while the Lions aren’t nearly as strong in this regard. Peterson and Guice will have more success running against the Lions, which will make things easier for Haskins.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Redskins have one of the weaker secondaries in the NFL. Quinton Dunbar is an excellent cornerback, but the other players Washington has at the position are atrocious. This includes Josh Norman, whose play has fallen off a cliff. Under normal circumstances, the Lions would be able to take advantage of this liability, as Matthew Stafford would torch the Redskin secondary by throwing to his two talented receivers.

Stafford, however, is not expected to play. It’ll once again be Jeff Dreadful, I mean Driskel, who is not a very good player. Driskel can scramble well, but his accuracy is severely lacking. He’ll connect on some throws to Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, but not with any sort of consistency. Driskel will especially struggle if right tackle Ricky Wagner is out again. Ryan Kerrigan will easily win his matchup against a backup right tackle.

While the Redskins are awful against the pass, they at least defend the run very well. Bo Scarbrough looked functional for the Lions last week, but Washington should be able to limit his production.

RECAP: I mentioned in the Falcons-Buccaneers capsule that I’m a masochist. If you didn’t believe me then, here’s more evidence. I’m betting heavily on the Redskins.

This may sound crazy after what happened last week, but as I wrote earlier, the Jets are better than people think they are. The Jets also matched up very well against the Redskins, as they were able to shut down the running game with ease. The Lions won’t be able to do that.

With that in mind, this spread is wrong. It’s crazy, but Jeff Driskel is a road favorite of 3.5 points. Let me repeat that: Jeff Driskel is a road favorite of 3.5 points! Let me repeat that once more because I don’t think it’s sunk in yet: JEFF DRISKEL IS A ROAD FAVORITE OF 3.5 POINTS!!!

I don’t know what’s crazier: The fact that JEEEFFF DRISSEKELLL ISSSS A ROOOAOAADDD FFAVVOORTTIIEE OFFFF 3.5 PPPPOINNTSS or that more than 90 percent of the public action is betting on him!!!

Given this, and the fact that the Lions could be looking ahead to Thanksgiving, I don’t know how we can possibly not bet heavily on the Redskins. Driskel sucks, and his team sucks for the most part, so why in the world is he being bet at that clip as a 3.5-point favorite? This is the stupidest thing I’ve ever seen.

This will be at least a four-unit wager on the Redskins, and I could see myself going to five if things look good later in the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still an obscene amount of action on the Lions, which is just crazy to me. People really think Jeff Driskel is going to win on the road by four or more points? Wow!

SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions are still seeing tons of betting action going their way even though they’ll be missing several key players, including their top pass rusher, Trey Flowers, and center Frank Ragnow. Flowers’ absence will really help Dwayne Haskins, who should play well versus Detroit’s poor secondary.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Lions are now four-point favorites! Unreal. Jeff Driskel doesn’t have the accuracy to be an NFL quarterback, and yet he’s expected to win this game by four points despite not having his center. I don’t understand what the hell the public is thinking. I saw stuff on Twitter saying the Lions are easy money. People, if you think you can outsmart Vegas, you’re going to lose big time in the long run. At +4, the Redskins seem like the best play of the week versus this dreadful Detroit team.


The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.
The Lions have to play on Thanksgiving in four days.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -1.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Stafford).
Computer Model: Lions -6.
DVOA Spread: Lions -8.


The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
This is the easiest bet in the world, apparently.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 82% (14,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Lions are 5-10 ATS before their Thanksgiving game since 2005.

Opening Line: Lions -3.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Cloudy, 49 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Redskins 20, Lions 17
Redskins +4 (5 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$500
Redskins +170 (0.5 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$85
Under 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 19, Lions 16

---

Seattle Seahawks (8-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)
Line: Seahawks by 2. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Nov. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

The 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are here!



To read about this, check out the 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts via the link!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles were leading 10-0 over the Patriots when Lane Johnson suffered a concussion. Philadelphia didn’t score a single point after that, as the offense sputtered versus one of the best defenses in the NFL. Carson Wentz has historically struggled without Johnson, so given the injury, as well as the receiving corps being in shambles, it wasn’t a surprise that the Eagles were blanked the rest of the way.

It remains to be seen if Johnson will be able to play this game. His presence will be needed against a Seattle defensive front that features Jadeveon Clowney and Ezekiel Ansah. Johnson’s availability will especially be required if Alshon Jeffery misses this contest. Jeffery’s absence last week created a major void, as Wentz endured many drops from his receivers. This included yet another game-winning (or tying) drop by Nelson Agholor at the very end of regulation.

The Eagles at least have some hope that they can move the ball with their tight ends. Otherwise, things will be bleak of Johnson and Jeffery are ruled out, as the running game won’t work very well against a Seahawk front that is solid at stopping ground attacks.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks have an injury question mark at receiver themselves, as Tyler Lockett is uncertain to play this game. This wouldn’t be ideal, as he’s Russell Wilson’s favorite and most-dynamic weapon. The Eagles aren’t very good at defending slot receivers, so Lockett’s absence would be a huge relief for them.

Philadelphia’s secondary has otherwise improved in the wake of Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby’s return from injury. They should be able to handle Josh Gordon and D.K. Metcalf on the outside, while the Eagles’ ferocious pass rush will place heavy pressure on Russell Wilson. The Seahawks’ offensive line took a hit a few weeks ago when center Justin Britt suffered an injury, so the Eagles will easily take advantage of that liability.

The Seahawks won’t be able to run their way out of it, unless Wilson is the one who’s doing it. Chris Carson has been a solid runner this year, but the Eagles have one of the top ground-stopping defenses in the NFL.

RECAP: I’m picking the Eagles, and this could be one of my top selections of the week. If both Johnson and Jeffery return from injury, this will likely be a five-unit selection. If, however, only one is available, I’ll still be betting on Philadelphia for three or so units.

The Eagles are the play regardless, as the Seahawks are a massive public dog. People are betting on them because of what they saw in their Monday night victory over the 49ers, but have quickly forgotten that the Seahawks nearly lost to the Buccaneers at home the week before. I love Wilson, but Seattle is an extremely overrated team. If the Eagles are at full strength, they should at least be favored by three, which happens to be the most likely result of this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Seahawks continue to be a major public dog. This spread, meamwhile, has dropped to -1 at Bookmaker. That’s nice, as one has become a bit more of a key number in recent years because of the extra point rule change.

SATURDAY NOTES: Lane Johnson is out, which is a bummer. However, Jadeveon Clowney may not play either. He’s listed as questionable, but didn’t log a single practice this week. Meanwhile, Alshon Jeffery seems likely to play, which means Philadelphia will have one competent receiver. If Jeffery plays and Clowney is out, I’ll have a big wager on the Eagles. Check back Sunday morning for the actives/inactives.

FINAL THOUGHTS: When I selected the Eagles in the Supercontest, I thought Alshon Jeffery would play. He’s out, meaning Carson Wentz doesn’t have a viable wide receiver to throw to. This sucks, but what can you do? The good news is that Jadeveon Clowney is out, which mitigates Lane Johnson’s absence. The Eagles are now underdogs, and I’m going to bet two units on them.


The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.
The Seahawks are a big-time public dog. This game is far more important to the Eagles.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -2.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.
Computer Model: Eagles -1.
DVOA Spread: Eagles -2.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
The Seahawks are a massive public dog.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 78% (25,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 29-14 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.

Russell Wilson is 22-7 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Eagles -2.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Cloudy, 46 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Eagles 30, Seahawks 23
Eagles +2 -105 (2 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$210
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 17, Eagles 9

---

Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games
Jaguars at Titans, Cowboys at Patriots, Packers at 49ers, Ravens at Rams




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games



NFL Picks - Nov. 20


2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20


NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19


Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4




SUB MENU






My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3
Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5
Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)