NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)

NFL Picks (2019): 84-56-1 (+$9,500)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

---

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 2, 4:30 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games







San Francisco 49ers (7-0) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)
Line: 49ers by 10. Total: 44.
Thursday, Oct. 31, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

Week 8 Recap: Goodbye, $1,000 winning streak… We were trying to get our sixth-consecutive $1,000 winning week, but it didn’t happen. Why? Because of Matt f**king Schaub. Had the Falcons not gotten the improbable back-door cover after being down 24-0 at halftime, we would’ve won around $1,200. Of all the quarterbacks to beat us, Matt f**king Schaub? Feels bad, man.

Still, we had a winning week, and that’s something to be proud of. We were 8-7 (+$435) in Week 8, putting us squarely at +$9,500 for the year. Let’s cross $10,000 this week!

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



You can buy A Safety and a Field Goal here.

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: We all knew that the 49ers’ defense was dominant heading into last week’s game, but what the offense did versus the Panthers was shocking. San Francisco moved the chains with ease against a stout Carolina defense, as Kyle Shanahan seemed like he was five steps ahead of Ron Rivera with his excellent play-calling.

I don’t see why this game would be any different. The Cardinals are better defensively with Patrick Peterson on the field, but it’s not like Peterson has someone obvious to erase. Arizona will struggle elsewhere in the secondary, as Jimmy Garoppolo will continue to spread the ball very well. Meanwhile, George Kittle will continue to pick up chunks of yardage against a defense that can’t stop tight ends at all.

The Cardinals also have an issue against running backs, which will prove to be an issue against Tevin Coleman. The former Falcon blazed by a superior Panther defense last week, so he shouldn’t have any problems duplicating what Latavius Murray did to the Cardinals last week.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Prior to battling the Saints, the Cardinals won three games in a row. They did so versus a trio of pathetic teams that can’t rush the quarterback at all. This was very helpful for Kyler Murray, who is shielded by a poor offensive line.

It was no surprise that Murray struggled last week versus the Saints, who tend to put lots of heat on opposing quarterbacks. If Murray couldn’t function very well in that environment, how will he operate against the 49ers, who have the best defensive line in the NFL? There’s no way the Cardinals are going to be able to block Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and DeForest Buckner.

The 49ers cover very well, too, so Murray’s receivers won’t get open. Arizona’s one chance of moving the chains would have been with David Johnson or even Chase Edmonds against some mediocre 49er linebackers, but both will be sidelined with injuries.

RECAP: My rule for Thursday night affairs is to select the better team, as that squad will have a better chance of preparing a good game plan on short rest. This didn’t work last week, as the Redskins may have beaten the Vikings outright if Case Keenum didn’t suffer a concussion. Perhaps the Redskins aren’t much worse than Minnesota… but we’ll discuss that later.

At any rate, I like the 49ers to cover this spread. The line is inflated – my number is San Francisco -7.5 – and there’s tons of public money on the visitor, so I won’t be betting this game. However, the matchup and circumstances say that the 49ers are the right side.

My Week 9 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t think I’ll be betting this game. This spread is too high, so we’re not getting any value, and there’s a ton of public action on San Francisco. However, I don’t want to side with the Cardinals, who could easily get blown out of the water on short rest.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There hasn’t been any substantial sharp action on this game, which is hardly a surprise. I’m still on the 49ers with a non-wager. There’s just not much to like concerning this game. Luckily, us degenerates can gamble via DraftKings. I posted a couple of NFL DraftKings Picks for this contest.




The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -7.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.
Computer Model: 49ers -9.
DVOA Spread: 49ers -6.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
No one is going to be betting Arizona.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 75% (30,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Cardinals have won 9 of the last 10 meetings.

Cardinals are 36-21 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: 49ers -8.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: 49ers 31, Cardinals 14
49ers -10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 28, Cardinals 25

---

Houston Texans (5-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4)
Line: Jaguars by 1. Total: 46.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 9:30 AM
at London


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Deshaun Watson has been Jekyll and Hyde this year, and he certainly was Hyde in the first matchup against the Jaguars. He went 16-of-29 for a mere 159 yards and two lost fumbles. The reason for this was because of Houston’s offensive line. The Texans simply couldn’t block Jacksonville’s ferocious pass rush, which gave Watson problems all afternoon.

Things haven’t changed in this regard. In fact, Watson’s performances this season have been easy to determine, based on the caliber of pass rush he has battled. Given that he once again won’t have time in the pocket, it’ll be difficult for him to locate his receivers downfield. The one positive is that DeAndre Hopkins won’t have to deal with Jalen Ramsey, but the Texans won’t have Will Fuller around to take any sort of attention away from Hopkins.

The one way to attack the Jaguar defense right now is by beating their linebacking corps. Jacksonville was missing three of its top four linebackers last week, which would explain Jets tight end Ryan Griffin’s great output. Perhaps Darren Fells will put together another terrific fantasy stat line, or maybe it’ll be Jordan Akins. Either way, Watson must use his tight ends to beat the Jaguars because the running game won’t provide any sort of boost.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars couldn’t move the chains against the Texans either, at least not until the final two drives. Gardner Minshew’s final possession was nearly heroic, as he threw what should’ve been the game-tying touchdown. The Jaguars went for two, but failed to convert. Still, the drive gave the Jaguars some momentum, and they’ve won four of their next six games as a result.

Minshew now has way more experience than he did in his first start, and he has a much easier matchup this time around. The Texans have several injuries in the secondary, so they’re going to have problems covering his receivers. Meanwhile, someone named J.J. Watt won’t be around to put heavy pressure on Minshew. This is enormous, as Watt’s absence fundamentally changes Houston’s entire defense.

The Texans still should stop the run. Watt’s absence will hurt in that regard, but Houston still has plenty of capable run-pluggers, so Leonard Fournette will have to do most of his damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: You know that two-point conversion I just referenced? What if the Jaguars had converted? They’d be 5-3 right now, while Houston would be 4-4. In that case, would the Jaguars be favored? I think so! In fact, I believe the wrong team is favored in this contest.

The Texans have the superior quarterback, No. 1 receiver and linebacking corps, but can you think of one other area in which they are better than the Jaguars? Jacksonville has the superior running back (by a wide margin), Nos. 2 and 3 receivers (with Fuller out), defensive line (by a wide margin with Watt out) and secondary. And as crazy as it sounds, Doug Marrone is the superior coach, but only by default because Bill O’Brien is so awful.

Despite this, the public is favoring the Texans, albeit at a less-than two-thirds clip. I’m going the other way. I imagine I’ll be betting the Jaguars in some capacity, but there are some injury questions I’m waiting on, so I’ll label this as a “TBA units” for now. Check back later in the week, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re still waiting on injury reports, so I’ll have a better update next time. I’ll mention that the public action has gotten closer to even.

SATURDAY NOTES: I don’t really see anything here that makes me want to bet this game. Everyone keeps talking about how banged up Houston’s secondary is, but the Texans will likely be getting back Johnathan Joseph this week, so that should help defend Gardner Minshew’s receivers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Texans won’t have Laremy Tunsil, which will hinder their offense. That’s enough to get me to bet a unit on the Jaguars. I wouldn’t go crazy with this game, but the Texans will have major problems blocking Jacksonville’s front withotu Tunsil. With Jacksonville being favored by one, it gives us an opportunity to sell a point, so I’m going with the -2.5 +105 at 5Dimes.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -1.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -3.
Computer Model: Jaguars -1.
DVOA Spread: Jaguars -1.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
No edge found.

Percentage of money on Houston: 58% (34,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 14 of the last 18 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Jaguars 23, Texans 20
Jaguars -2.5 +105 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$100
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 26, Jaguars 3

---

Washington Redskins (1-7) at Buffalo Bills (5-2)
Line: Bills by 11. Total: 37.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 38-44-3 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets this week:

Packers -4

Rams -13

Seahawks -8

Texans -7

Patriots -10

Dolphins +14.5

The books crushed the public in Week 6, but the public rebounded in Week 7. As for Week 8, four of the six highest-bet sides covered. It was a rough day for the books. Lopsided bets are now 19-17 ATS on the year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers -8

Packers -3

Colts +1

Cowboys -7

Browns -3

Lions +2

There are seven lopsided-bet games this week. All but two are favorites, which is not a surprise.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I’d say people were surprised when the Redskins went blow for blow with the Vikings last Thursday, at least before Case Keenum was knocked out with a concussion. Dwayne Haskins ruined any chance the Redskins had after that, but the Vikings were helpless to stop Keenum’s connection to Terry McLaurin and his other receivers.

I was shocked by this as well, but then I thought about it: The dreadful Redskins team we’ve seen in the past (i.e. their blowout loss to the Giants) was the byproduct of injuries to Keenum and multiple offensive linemen. Everyone is healthy now – assuming Keenum clears protocol – so it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Redskins are playing relatively well. Their offensive line is pretty stout and should keep the Buffalo pass rush out of the backfield, which will allow Keenum to keep locating McLaurin.

Meanwhile, the Redskins will be successful in their aim to establish the run. The Bills’ defense has been a funnel to the ground attack, as evidenced last week when Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders gashed them. Adrian Peterson should have similar success, as should Derrius Guice, if he plays.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills don’t have the superior offensive line in this matchup. Dion Dawkins and Mitch Morse are solid, but the rest of the line tends to struggle. I imagine that second-round rookie Cody Ford will have major problems with Ryan Kerrigan, while Da’Ron Payne will have his way with the right guard.

The Redskins’ ability to win up front should prevent the Bills from being able to pound the ball too successfully. Of course, Josh Allen could always break for some long gains on the ground, and I don’t exactly trust the Washington linebackers to completely keep him in check.

Conversely, the Redskins’ secondary should be able to limit Allen’s lone viable threat, John Brown. This assumes that cornerback Quinton Dunbar plays. Dunbar has been performing on a Pro Bowl level this year, but got hurt last Thursday. He’ll be able to erase half the field if he is active.

RECAP: The Bills are 5-2, while the Redskins are 1-7. And yet, I don’t think these two teams are far apart. The public does, as evidenced by this massive point spread, but that’s only because they’re looking at the records of these two squads, which is a massive mistake. Bill Parcells once said, “You are what your record says you are,” but he wasn’t trying to handicap football games. This quote is a major fallacy unless it’s being used as coachspeak.

Think about what these teams have done lately. The Bills were blown out at home by the Eagles, and they were losing to the Dolphins in the third quarter. The Redskins, meanwhile, were looking like they would pull an upset in Minnesota before Keenum’s concussion, and before that, they lost to the 49ers by just nine, albeit in a crazy swamp game.

I’m explaining all of this because the spread is incorrect. Buffalo -9.5 means that the Bills are 6.5 points better than the Redskins if you assign three points for home-field advantage. This doesn’t seem correct. I think the Bills are two or 2.5 points better than the Redskins, so this spread should be in the 5-5.5 range. If I’m correct, we’re going through the second- and third-most prominent key numbers in football (7, 6).

I imagine I’ll be betting on the Redskins, but I need to make sure Keenum and Dunbar are healthy to determine what sort of unit count this will be. Once again, check back later for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s still unclear if Case Keenum will be able to play. He’s still in concussion protocol, which is a bummer because I’d really like the Redskins at +10 (currently at Bookmaker) if he were to play.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ugh, Dwayne Haskins will be starting this game. That sucks, as the Redskins looked very appealing with Case Keenum at the helm. The good news for the Redskins is that Quinton Dunbar will be playing, so I’ll stick with them for zero units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still no play on this game. The sharps don’t like it either. The best line available at the moment for the Redskins is +11 at Bovada.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -5.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -10.
Computer Model: Bills -10.
DVOA Spread: Bills -6.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 59% (10,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bills -10.

Opening Total: 36.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 43 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Bills 24, Redskins 17
Redskins +11 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 37 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 24, Redskins 9

---

Tennessee Titans (4-4) at Carolina Panthers (4-3)
Line: Panthers by 3.5. Total: 42.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Here’s some hate mail from last week:



Many people think I’m an Eagles fan because I live right outside of Philadelphia. The Eagles are not my team, unless I am betting them. I don’t get the notion of why you have to root for a team because you live in that city. Root for whomever you want to root for.

Here are some guys I’m being forced to root for, apparently:



I guess I should have made them sign an NDA because there’s no reason this news should have gotten out.

Speaking of things done in the nude:



Imagine being so angry with life that you posted this on a comment board. So sad.

Also, imagine being so miserable that you posted this:



Seriously, lay off the families. If you have beef with someone online you’ll never meet, that’s bad enough, but why insult their family? That’s just dumb.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Imagine being an NFL analyst on TV and opining that Kyle Allen should be the starting quarterback when Cam Newton returns from injury. This actually happened, as people on ESPN suggested that Allen should keep his job because of a four-game sample size.

We saw the real Allen – the one who struggled mightily in the preseason – in an absolute demolition against the 49ers. Allen, who has major ball-security issues, committed several turnovers, never giving his team a chance to keep pace with San Francisco’s electric offense. It wasn’t completely Allen’s fault, as San Francisco’s elite defensive line harassed him all afternoon. The Titans obviously don’t have the talent up front that San Francisco has assembled, but Cameron Wake’s return to the lineup the past couple of weeks has been huge. He, Jurrell Casey and Harold Landry are a potent pass-rushing trio and should once again open up some fumbling opportunities for Allen.

Allen, however, may have an opportunity to exploit an easy matchup, depending on what happens per the injury report. Tennessee’s top cornerback, Adoree Jackson, missed last week’s game, and we saw exactly what the consequences of that were with Mike Evans being unstoppable. If Jackson is missing again, either D.J. Moore or Curtis Samuel will thrive. Also, Greg Olsen has a favorable matchup against a Titan defense that has been sub par against tight ends this year.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Ryan Tannehill is another backup quarterback who has played well versus weak competition. He was able to lead the Titans to victory in consecutive games, though he did so versus the defensively challenged Chargers and Buccaneers at home. Carolina will provide a far more difficult challenge on the road.

Tannehill’s success could be determined by another crucial injury. Guard Rodger Saffold suffered a concussion last week and was replaced by Jamil Douglas. He and the unbelievably incompetent Nate Davis form a horrible duo in the interior of the offensive line, and they’ll be tasked with blocking Gerald McCoy. Obviously, this is a huge advantage for Carolina. If Saffold is out, Tannehill will be under very heavy pressure, and this could lead to the same sort of turnover spree we saw from Allen last week.

Meanwhile, Derrick Henry won’t have the running lanes he needs to be successful if Saffold is sidelined. The 49ers just trampled the Panthers, but there’s no reason that Carolina’s ground defense should have been so bad beyond the 49ers absolutely out-scheming the coaching staff. Luckily for Carolina, they won’t have to see Kyle Shanahan again during the regular season.

RECAP: I was hoping we would get more line value than this. The advance spread on this game was Carolina -4.5. Given the Panthers’ blowout loss and Tennessee’s “upset” victory over the Buccaneers, I was hoping we’d see Carolina -3. Instead, -3.5 was the opener, and this spread has risen to -4 since.

I still think this spread is too short. My numbers say Carolina should be -6.5, while the computer model thinks -7 is correct. Based on that, the Panthers should be the play.

However, there are other factors beyond the spread. The motivational and Vegas aspects of this game seem to be favoring Tennessee. The Panthers may not be completely focused after flying back across the country and playing an early game on the East Coast, as they have to take on the Packers and two divisional opponents after this non-conference matchup. Meanwhile, more than 70 percent of the betting action is on the host. It almost seems as though this line were set low to ensnare the public into the wrong side.

I’m not taking the bait. I’ll likely side with the Titans, but I don’t think I’m going to bet this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Despite the public action on the Panthers, this spread has dropped to +3.5 in some books. The sharps like the Titans, and it’ll be interesting to see if they take them at +3.5 as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are a couple of notable injuries for the Titans. First, Jurrell Casey is out, but I think that’s OK because Tennessee still has Jeffery Simmons and Da’Quan Jones at the position. Second, center Ben Jones will be out of the lineup as well, but I think that’s fine as well, as long as Jones is the only blocker who happens to be injured. Rodger Saffold will play, which is huge for Tennessee. Given that the Panthers were exposed at San Francisco last week and barely beat the Jaguars at home in a similar spot – it was a one-point result until a fluke run at the end – I like Tennessee, much like the sharps do. I’m going to bump this up to three units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to bet the Titans, as this line is down to +3 in some books. Bovada and BetUS still have +3.5 available.


The Motivation. Edge: Titans.
The Panthers play the Packers and then two divisional opponents after this game.


The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -6.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -4.5.
Computer Model: Panthers -7.
DVOA Spread: Panthers -5.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
A good amount of action on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 70% (11,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Sunny, 57 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Panthers 24, Titans 21
Titans +3.5 (3 Units) – BetUS/Bovada — Incorrect; -$330
Titans +165 (0.5 Units) – Bookmaker/BetUS — Incorrect; -$50
Over 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 30, Titans 20

---

Chicago Bears (3-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)
Line: Eagles by 5.5. Total: 41.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Contest Announcement time!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

Our Survivor Contest has returned as well. It’s free to enter, and you can win $350!

We’re partnered with Draft Kings this year. Sign up at Draft Kings and use promo code “Walterfootball” for a bonus with your first deposit. Seriously, it’s free money – go sign up!

And finally, here’s our NFL Picks Contest, which is free and contains cash prizes.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Head coach Matt Nagy announced that Mitchell Trubisky will be his starter in this game. I think that’s the correct decision. Trubisky was dreadful against the Chargers, but it’s not like Nagy has much of an alternative. Backup Chase Daniel was equally pitiful in a loss to the Raiders prior to the bye.

Trubisky has regressed this year, which has been disappointing. However, I wouldn’t say it’s completely been his fault. Chicago’s offensive line, which was a major strength in 2018, has been far worse this season. The two tackles have inexplicably regressed, while the absence of right guard Kyle Long has been huge. Long’s replacement is the incompetent Rashaad Coward, and as we all know, cowards can’t block warriors.

The Eagles have plenty of warriors on their defensive front, including Fletcher Cox, who was dominant in this past Sunday’s victory over the Bills. He should be able to win easily up front and make life difficult for Mitchell Trubisky. This will be key, as Philadelphia’s secondary doesn’t have the personnel to cover Allen Robinson, or even Anthony Miller, for that matter. Cox will also be instrumental in clamping down on the run. David Montgomery just broke the 100-yard barrier for the first time in his career, but the Chargers’ run defense is far worse than what the Eagles have in that regard.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles were able to prevail in Buffalo by stomping all over the Bills’ weak run defense. Using the same formula should help them win over the Bears.

Chicago used to have a stellar run defense, but that was before Akiem Hicks suffered an injury. Hicks’ absence on the defensive line has changed everything for the Bears, who have struggled versus opposing ground attacks ever since losing their Pro Bowler. Jordan Howard, seeking revenge against his former team, will have extra motivation in what appears to be a great matchup for him.

Another former Bear, Alshon Jeffery, doesn’t have as bright of an outlook. In fact, I don’t have much confidence in the Eagles’ ability to move the chains aerially. The Bears still have a great pass rush, and inept rookie left tackle Andre Dillard has an impossible matchup versus Khalil Mack. The Bears also have a strong secondary, excluding the slot. That’s where Nelson Agholor plays, and Agholor is a very inconsistent player who won’t be able to take advantage of this liability, in all likelihood.

RECAP: The advance spread on this game was Philadelphia -3. Because the public was burned by the Bears losing outright to the Chargers and saw the Eagles win by an impressive score in Buffalo, this line has risen to Philadelphia -5.

The Bears have looked dreadful in recent weeks, but I don’t think they’re as horrible as people think. They outgained the Chargers by a wide margin, but had tons of misfortune in the red zone. I think they’ll play better on the road, given how negative the Soldier Field fans are (and rightfully so.) Meanwhile, the Eagles still have some issues that haven’t been rectified. They prevailed in a must-win game, but that victory could give them a false sense of security. They’ve been very sloppy and mistake-prone all year, and I don’t see why one win would change that.

With that in mind, this spread is too high. Not only has there been a two-point movement from the advance spread – across two key numbers, to boot – but the computer model believes Philadelphia -2 is the correct number.

Also, consider these two other factors: The Bears will have more motivation in this game because this is a revenge spot for their playoff loss last year. Also, there’s a ton of public action coming in on the Eagles.

With all of that in mind, the Bears look like a fantastic play to me. I’ll be buying the bad news on the Bears and fading a suddenly slightly overrated Philadelphia squad that has underperformed this year. This will be a four-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m dropping my unit count on the Eagles. The more I think about it, the more I’ve come to realize that the Bears could just bottom out because they have lots of problems with their offensive line and run defense, both of which the Eagles should be able to exploit. Betting action has also evened out, which is not ideal.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Eagles are suddenly much healthier. Jason Peters will continue to be out, but DeSean Jackson will return, as will Avonte Maddox, which means Philadelphia will have a fully healthy secondary for the first time all year. There’s also a chance Timmy Jernigan will play. Given all of this positive news, I can’t recommend a wager on the Bears.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It looked like the sharps were on the Bears, but this was phantom movement to get a better line on the Eagles at -4. Also, Timmy Jernigan will play for Philadelphia, so I have no interest in betting Chicago anymore.


The Motivation. Edge: Bears.
This is a big revenge game for the Bears for the playoff loss.


The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -8.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.
Computer Model: Eagles -2.
DVOA Spread: Eagles -5.


The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
The public seems done with Chicago.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 69% (13,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Sunny, 53 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Eagles 21, Bears 20
Bears +5.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 22, Bears 14

---

Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)
Line: Vikings by 4.5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. The NFL should fine the Cardinals for the stunt they pulled with David Johnson in Week 7. They announced that Johnson would start versus the Giants, but played him just three snaps because, as head coach Kliff Kingsbury put it, Johnson would be used in “emergency situations.”

This is absolute bulls**t, as it hurt many fantasy players. Imagine if you paid $3,000 to enter the DraftKings millionaire contest and used Johnson as one of your running backs. I thought about entering the night before and putting Johnson into my lineup. But that’s just one entry. Can you imagine someone using Johnson in six entries? They’d be out $18,000 because of what Arizona did!

Some, particularly those in the NFL, will just roll their eyes at this notion. Who cares about fantasy!? NFL teams don’t care about fantasy!

Well, they should care. NFL players need to be thankful for fantasy because that’s what pays their bills. Do you think nearly as many people would be watching NFL games if fantasy football didn’t exist? Of course not! The NFL wouldn’t be nearly as popular without fantasy (or betting.) If it weren’t for those two aspects, no one would have watched a game between the Cardinals and Giants.

The NFL needs to do a better job of catering to fantasy football players and NFL bettors because those are the league’s primary customers. What’s that saying? The customer is always right? Maybe the NFL should stop dicking over its customers.

So, here’s what the NFL should do: It needs to fine the Cardinals $500,000 for this first offense of circumventing the injury report. The next offense is a docked sixth-round draft choice. The third offense is a forfeited third-round draft selection. And there won’t be a fourth offense because that’s a lost first-round draft pick.

2. Last week, I voiced my displeasure about NFL announcers saying stuff like “He scored from seven yards out.” NFL announcers apparently don’t understand that you shouldn’t end sentences with a preposition. Hey, NFL announcers, where is your grammar at!?

Apparently, “seven yards out” wasn’t bad enough. Rotoworld took it one step further:



The hell!? Carson Wentz scored from three YEARS out!? How in the world did he do that!? Forget the grammar; scoring from three years out is very impressive!

3. My dad won’t be an NFL announcer anytime soon. I’ve discussed my dad’s comments from watching Thursday Night Football with him. Two weeks ago, my dad gave his thoughts on who happens to be the most-hated player in football right now:

Dad: Ezekiel Elliott is the most hated guy in football right now!

Me: Why?

Dad: Because he’s disgusting!

The following week, my dad offered a hot take on Andy Reid during the Chiefs-Broncos game.

Dad: I hate Andy Reid. Everyone hates Andy Reid!

Me: Why?

Dad: Because he looks like a pig.

During the Vikings-Redskins game, my dad constantly voiced his displeasure for Kirk Cousins and his tendency to take lots of unneeded sacks.

“F**king Kirk Cousins, he never throws the ball!” my dad constantly yelled (he bet the Vikings.)

It got so bad that my dad said the following about Cousins, and I don’t know what to make of it:

“Kirk Cousins pushed the guy with his fist in his a**!”

Not that there’s anything wrong with that, I guess? I have no idea.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: There’s no spread on this game because there’s an outside chance Patrick Mahomes will play. It doesn’t sound like he will, but there’s obviously a major difference between him and Matt Moore, so the sportsbooks will hold off on posting a spread before there’s an official announcement.

Moore actually played quite well Sunday night. If he has to start again, he should be able to take advantage of Minnesota’s poor secondary. Xavier Rhodes clearly is bothered by some sort of injury because he’s been atrocious this season. Tyreek Hill should have his way with him. I also like Sammy Watkins’ matchup in the slot, as well as Travis Kelce going up against linebackers who can’t cover.

That said, there are a couple of issues for the Chiefs on this side of the ball. First, establishing a ground attack will be difficult, given that the Vikings are stout against the run. Second, Kansas City’s offensive line is in shambles. The entire left side of the line is out, while right guard Dr. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif suffered an injury Sunday night, so his status for this contest is unclear. Even if Dr. Duvernay-Tardif plays, it’ll be difficult for the Chiefs to block the Vikings’ stalwart defensive front.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins has been on fire lately, but this could be more of a Dalvin Cook affair. This, of course, shouldn’t surprise anyone, given how electric Cook has been this season.

The Chiefs are absolutely dreadful at defending running backs, whether they’re trying to bring down rushers or pass-catching backs. Kansas City is missing its top two interior defensive linemen, while its linebackers are very lackluster. Cook should have a monstrous afternoon.

Conversely, Kansas City has been surprisingly decent against receivers. Charvarius Ward has been a pleasant surprise at cornerback, while Emmanuel Ogbah is putting good pressure on opposing quarterbacks along with Frank Clark. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Cousins take a step backward in this contest, though it may not matter because of what Cook will be able to accomplish.

RECAP: Once again, there’s no spread on this game, so I can’t make an official pick. I will say though that it’ll be difficult not to select the Vikings, given that Mike Zimmer has had extra time to prepare for this contest.

Check back later in the week, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still no spread posted. Hopefully we’ll get one by Friday evening.

SATURDAY NOTES: A spread is posted, as Patrick Mahomes is expected to be sidelined. However, there are still several Kansas City injuries that have yet to be resolved. I may end up betting on the Vikings, but I need to see the final injury report on Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m betting on the Chiefs. The Packers needed some magical throws from Aaron Rodgers to cover against the Chiefs, and I don’t expect Kirk Cousins to have that same sort of performance. Meanwhile, Chris Jones will return to help Kansas City’s efforts against the run. There’s a ton of value with the Chiefs, who shouldn’t be underdogs of more than three in this matchup.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -1 (Moore) or Chiefs -5.5 (Mahomes).
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Mahomes).
Computer Model: Vikings -2.
DVOA Spread: Vikings -1 (Moore) or Chiefs -6 (Mahomes).


The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
The public is predictably betting the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 65% (10,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Mike Zimmer is 57-30 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Chiefs are 12-30 ATS as home underdogs of 1-5.5 points since 2007.

Opening Line: Vikings -4.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Sunny, 55 degrees Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Vikings 23, Chiefs 20
Chiefs +5.5 -105 (2 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$200
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 26, Vikings 23

---

New York Jets (1-6) at Miami Dolphins (0-7)
Line: Jets by 3. Total: 42.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. “Can you believe what we’re watching, here in Manhattan?” a FOX Sports announcer asked at the end of the third quarter in a game between Kansas State and Oklahoma, which was apparently played at a neutral site in New York.

Yes, I believed it! I’ve been saying for weeks that Oklahoma is overrated. Weeks ago, I mentioned that the Sooners would’ve been down 21-7 at lowly Kansas if it weren’t for a couple of drops. That was a sign that the Sooners weren’t as good as people thought they were. If the voters in the fake news Associated Press would actually watch the games, they would have downvoted the Sooners into the 10-12 range rather than keeping them at No. 5.

I think this is a lesson that people should actually consider what happens in games as opposed to just looking at records. Bill Parcells once said “You are what your record says you are.” Maybe that works in the coaching world, but Parcells was never charged with handicapping football games and trying to determine which teams were the best in the country.

2. Speaking of handicapping football games, our College Football Picks have been on a tear this year, so check them out if you haven’t already. We had Kansas State last week as one of our top plays.

(And yes, I know that Kansas State game was in the state of Kansas; not New York!)

3. In my NFL notes, I mentioned that a pet peeve of mine is when football announcers say something like, “He scored from seven yards out.” This is incredibly annoying because it’s so grammatically awful. He scored from seven yards! You don’t need the “out!”

This is said by many college football announcers as well. Meanwhile, another pet peeve of mine concerning college football is something that cheerleaders shout. One cheerleader during the Penn State-Michigan game yelled the following during the game:

“Let’s go State!”

I hate this so much. I despise it when anyone says “Let’s go State.” Which state!? There are 50 of them!!!

Look, I know that in a matchup between Penn State and Michigan, “State” is obviously Penn State, because it’s the only state school on the field. Still, though, if I went to Ohio State, for example, and I heard a cheerleader shout, “Let’s go State!” I might think that she was talking about my school for a second.

This is incredibly annoying and needs to stop. The next time someone says, “Let’s go State,” tell them to f**k off and specify which state.

ONE-SIDED MATCHUP: As I’ve written before, I’m not providing analysis for the Dolphins. They’re the worst team in NFL history, and they’re not trying to win. There’s no point in writing a breakdown for their games.

RECAP: It’s a shame the Dolphins covered against the Steelers. Pittsburgh outscored Miami, 27-0, in the final three quarters, and Ryan Fitzpatrick was trying his hardest to blow the cover. He fumbled twice at the end, and if the official hadn’t blown the whistle early, the Steelers would have scored 34 points, thanks to a defensive touchdown.

The Dolphins better be careful not to win this game. Sam Darnold is dealing with a thumb injury, and his offensive line could be missing three starters. The defense, meanwhile, will be down C.J. Mosley, as well as Leonard Williams, who was just traded to the Giants. The Jets are dreadful now, but at least they’re not intentionally losing.

Miami is going to find a way to lose this contest. I imagine the Dolphins will have the lead at some point, but the Jets will find a way to prevail, most likely by three points.

I’ll be on the Jets, as the Dolphins can’t afford to win this game. However, I have no interest in betting on such an injury-ravaged squad.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was previously concerned about Sam Darnold’s thumb injury. Darnold is practicing fully, as the thumb injury is to his non-throwing hand. There’s also a chance Kelvin Beachum will return this week. Given this news, I may bet several units on the Jets. Unfortunately, I thought this Thursday morning, but had a couple of appointments I had to go to, and now this spread has risen to -3.5. I’m not excited about that number.

SATURDAY NOTES: I briefly considered betting this game at the -3 -110 currently available at BetUS, but the Jets will be missing two offensive linemen, their top two linebackers, Leonard Williams and a starting cornerback. That doesn’t seem like a recipe for victory. The most likely result of this game is New York winning by three.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jets are offically missing two offensive linemen and their top two linebackers, as well as some other important players. Sam Darnold also has a thumb injury. It’s on his non-throwing hand, but this could result in fumbling.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jets -6.5.
Computer Model: Jets -1.
DVOA Spread: Jets -3.


The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
Action picking up on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 69% (10,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Road Team has won 14 of the last non-London 22 meetings.

Dolphins are 18-6 ATS as a home underdog after two straight losses the previous 24 instances.

Dolphins are 15-39 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Jets -5.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Cloudy, 85 degrees. Mild wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Jets 27, Dolphins 20
Jets -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 26, Jets 18

---

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-4)
Line: Steelers by 1. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Mason Rudolph was horrific Monday night against the worst team in NFL history. He held the ball too long in the pocket, missed open receivers and was responsible for a terrible interception. Rudolph finally got into somewhat of a groove in the second half when Xavien Howard left the game with a knee injury, but he still missed Diontae Johnson for a deep touchdown even though Johnson was wide open.

Rudolph has another favorable matchup this week. The Colts have been giving up big games to receivers all year. They have some issues at cornerback, so JuJu Smith-Schuster and Johnson should be able to win their matchups. It’s a matter of whether or not Rudolph will be able to locate them for long gains. We at least know that he’ll have the pass protection to do so, meaning it’ll be squarely up to Rudolph to succeed.

The rushing attack, meanwhile, won’t be as successful. James Conner is out, but that doesn’t really matter because Jaylen Samuels is a fine replacement. The issue is that the Colts have been strong versus ground attacks ever since getting back Darius Leonard back from injury.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts may have issues moving the chains as well, as they’ll be going up against one of the top defenses in the NFL. Pittsburgh’s secondary has been far better ever since the Minkah Fitzpatrick trade took place, so covering a team with just one potent receiver (T.Y. Hilton) shouldn’t be too difficult.

The Steelers also have an excellent pass rush. T.J. Watt is performing on an All-Pro level, while Bud Dupree has improved markedly this season. The defensive line is also stout. The Colts have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, but even they had some issues with the Broncos last week, so that should bode well for Pittsburgh in this matchup.

Pittsburgh is even better versus the run than the pass, so Marlon Mack shouldn’t be able to do much either. Mack scored last week, but didn’t run very well otherwise. This is an even tougher matchup for him.

RECAP: This is one of the most lopsided-bet games of the week thus far, with about 80 percent of the money coming in on Indianapolis. That’s absolutely wild, and probably incorrect.

I can’t say I’m surprised that the public is betting the Colts like this after what they saw from Rudolph on Monday night. However, Rudolph has an easy matchup in this game and is surrounded by a very talented roster. These teams are close to even, so the case can be made that the Steelers should be favored by a field goal at home. I made this spread Pittsburgh -2, so close enough. The computer model says the Steelers should be favored as well. Meanwhile, we don’t have this week’s DVOA numbers yet, but the DVOA figures from last week had Pittsburgh -2.5 as being the correct spread.

Another factor is that the Steelers need to win this game much more than the Colts do. They’re also a big-time public dog at home, so they’ll undoubtedly feel disrespected.

It’s also worth noting that the Steelers are 4-1 against the spread with either Rudolph or Duck Hodges at quarterback. That just goes to show how talented their roster is, so I think they’ll improve to 5-1 ATS when they win this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still tons of money on the Colts, who are now favored by a point in several books. Despite this, every single metric we use says the Steelers should be favored. Still, it sucks that we no longer get to fade the public dog.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts are now a public dog again, thanks to T.Y. Hilton’s injury. Hilton is out, meaning the Colts will be down their top two receivers. And if this wasn’t bad enough, Indianapolis might be without Malik Hooker, Justin Houston and Pierre Desir. The Steelers appear to be in great shape to win this game, so I’m going to bump up my unit count to five.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Steelers remain one of my top picks this week. Nothing has changed.


The Motivation. Edge: Steelers.
This game means much more to the Steelers, who need to win to keep pace with Baltimore. The Colts, meanwhile, would still be in first place with a loss.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -2.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -1.5.
Computer Model: Steelers -1.
DVOA Spread: Steelers -2.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
Everyone thinks this is easy money.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 73% (16,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 44 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Colts 17
Steelers -1 (5 Units) – BetUS/Bovada — Correct; +$500
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 26, Colts 24

---

Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games
Lions at Raiders, Buccaneers at Seahawks, Browns at Broncos, Packers at Chargers, Patriots at Ravens, Cowboys at Giants




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games



NFL Picks - Dec. 13


2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11


NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9


2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29


Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4




SUB MENU






My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5
Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6
Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)