NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)

NFL Picks (2019): 84-56-1 (+$9,500)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 3, 4:30 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games







Detroit Lions (3-3-1) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)
Line: Raiders by 2.5. Total: 51.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

Video of the Week: I have no idea why I’m fascinated by this, but I can’t stop watching it and similar videos. The music is epic, too:



R.I.P. AOL and AltaVista. Most of you may not have heard of the latter, but that was my preferred search engine of choice back when I built this site in 1999!

OAKLAND OFFENSE: There are a few noteworthy injuries on this side of the ball. For the Raiders, center Rodney Hudson was carted off versus the Texans. I watched replacement Andre James carefully, and he held up rather well most of the time. Granted, he’s no Hudson, but he could be a fine replacement if he starts. Meanwhile, Snacks Harrison’s status is unknown as well. The stud run stuffer once again left last week’s game with an injury. The Lions are a different team without him on the field.

If Harrison is out, the Raiders should be able to run the ball rather well with Josh Jacobs. Oakland’s offensive line is terrific, even without Hudson, so Jacobs should have plenty of wide-open running lanes at his disposal if the Lions are missing two defensive tackles (Harrison, Mike Daniels.)

Meanwhile, Derek Carr has a promising matchup against a Detroit secondary that is suddenly struggling. The Lions traded away a safety and were missing Darius Slay last week, which allowed Daniel Jones to throw four touchdowns. Carr could have similar success if Slay is out again, and he won’t make the rookie blunders that Jones was guilty of, given his experience and protection in the pocket.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford figures to have success throwing the ball as well. The Raiders have just one capable pass rusher, Maxx Crosby, and I don’t think that’ll be enough against Matthew Stafford, who has been way more aggressive this year than usual.

Stafford should have plenty of success attacking Oakland’s secondary. The Raiders have some definite weaknesses in their defensive backfield, as their corners match up very poorly against Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. Meanwhile, the Raiders haven’t covered tight ends well in years, so perhaps T.J. Hockenson will finally put together another strong performance.

While both passing attacks will have success, the same can’t be said of the two running games. The Raiders are decent against the rush, and Detroit doesn’t have the talent in the backfield to establish itself on the ground.

RECAP: The Raiders are a massive public underdog, and it’s easy to understand why. They’re the Raiders, after all. They’re supposed to lose. Meanwhile, the Lions are coming off a win versus the Giants. People think they’re better than Oakland.

I’m not sure that’s correct. The Raiders have an outstanding offensive line, which casual bettors are predictably ignoring. Oakland’s great blocking will give it a big edge in this contest, especially if Harrison is out again.

The injury report may increase my wager on the Raiders. For now, I’m taking them for three units. There’s so much money coming in on the underdog Lions, yet the case could be made for Oakland -3 to be the correct line.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I really liked the Raiders earlier in the week, but it sounds like they might be down their top two centers, which will force them to shuffle guys around on the offensive line. That is obviously a bummer. Meanwhile, both Mike Daniels and Snacks Harrison practiced Wednesday, so that doesn’t bode well for the Raiders.

SATURDAY NOTES: The betting action on this game has completely evened out, which is bizarre. Both Raider centers are questionable after getting one limited practice in all week. The same goes for A’Shawn Robinson, whose absence would be huge against Josh Jacobs. We know Mike Daniels is out, so Robinson’s status is huge. Unfortunately, we don’t know what that’ll be at the moment. I’m not sure I’ll be betting this game after all.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I don’t think I’m going to bet this game. If you like the Raiders, you can get -2.5 -125 at 5Dimes.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Raiders will be down just one center, but Snacks Harrison will be on the field as well, so I consider that even. You can still find a -2.5 at -120 on 5Dimes.




The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.
The Raiders a big-time public dog.


The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -1.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Computer Model: Lions -2.
DVOA Spread: Raiders -2.5.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Lions were a massive public dog. Then, just a regular public dog. Now, the public is on Oakland.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 55% (14,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Raiders are 11-28 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Opening Line: Raiders -1.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Raiders 27, Lions 20
Raiders -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 31, Lions 24

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2)
Line: Seahawks by 6. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

The 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are here!



To read about this, check out the 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts via the link!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks suffered a huge loss last week when center Justin Britt was lost for the year with an injury. Britt wasn’t a great center by any means, but he was solid. He likely was Seattle’s second-best offensive lineman behind Duane Brown.

Britt’s absence will be huge, as the Seahawks’ sub-par offensive line has turned into a very poor one. Via the metrics, they now have the fourth-worst offensive line in the NFL, which won’t bode well for them in matchups against great defensive lines. And yet, that’s exactly what the Buccaneers have. Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea are a force in the middle, while Jason Pierre-Paul’s return to action will only help a pass rush that was already potent with Shaq Barrett putting heat on quarterbacks on the blind side.

The Buccaneers’ advantage in the trenches in this matchup is enormous. They’ll completely put the clamps on Chris Carson and constantly harass Russell Wilson. Of course, Wilson will buy time and connect with his receivers for an occasional long gain, as he is wont to do, but Seattle’s drives will be inconsistent.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Jameis Winston continued to kill his team with mistakes last week. He threw an early interception to no one and was responsible for a couple of fumbles. It was the usual Winston we’ve come to expect. However, there is a chance things could be different in this game, and it all has to do with Seattle’s defense.

The Seahawks have some major issues in their secondary. Shaq Griffin does a good job of taking care of one side of the field, but Seattle’s other cornerbacks are very poor. This is not a good sign when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are coming to town. Both players should dominate this matchup, all while Winston enjoys way more time in the pocket than Wilson will, thanks to the right side of this offensive line returning from injury.

The Buccaneers couldn’t block the Panthers at all a few weeks ago in London because they were missing their right guard and right tackle, but the entire offensive line is now healthy. The Seahawks don’t put much pressure on the quarterback outside of Jadeveon Clowney anyway, so Winston will have a clean pocket.

RECAP: The Buccaneers are my top play this week, and if I had any faith in Winston’s ability to be consistent, this would be my October NFL Pick of the Month, which I’ll likely postpone until next week.

This spread is too high, as the Seahawks are not three points better than Tampa. Check out what they’ve done at home this year:

Barely beat the Bengals
Lost to Teddy Bridgewater in a blowout
Barely beat the Rams
Lost to the Ravens by 14 points

Does that sound like a good team to you? Seattle is very mediocre, much like the Buccaneers, who have been competitive in most games in which their offensive line has been intact. I know that betting on Winston is scary, but remember what he did to another poor secondary when he torched the Rams in a 55-40 win. Meanwhile, the Seahawks, who could be looking ahead to San Francisco next week, lost their quality center for the year, which is not something to take lightly.

This will be a five-unit wager for now, but if the injury report is very favorable, I may bump this unit count up to eight after all.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I love the Buccaneers, and I’m going to lock them in early. This spread, unfortunately, has dropped to +5.5 because of sharp action on Tampa. I’m betting five units at Bovada at +6 -120. I still may increase this unit count to eight if the injury report looks good.

SATURDAY NOTES: Argh, so much for my NFL Pick of the Month. This spread has dropped to +5, thanks to all the sharp action on Tampa. I’m glad we locked this in early at +6, even at -120 juice.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The +6s are long gone, and so are the +5s. The +4.5s are beginning to disappear as well. You can still find +4.5 at BetUS and Bovada. The sharps have bet the Buccaneers very heavily.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All of the +4.5 -110s are gone, but you can get +4.5 -115 at Bovada, still. It’s +4 elsewhere, thanks to sharp action.


The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.
The Seahawks have to take on the 49ers next week.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -5.5.
Computer Model: Seahawks -10.
DVOA Spread: Seahawks -6.5.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 58% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 93-59 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 9-28 SU on the West Coast in franchise history.

Seahawks are 46-32 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -5.5.

Opening Total: 53.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 56 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 34, Seahawks 31
Buccaneers +6 -120 (5 Units) – Bovada — Push; $0
Buccaneers +210 (0.5 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$50
Over 51.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 40, Buccaneers 34

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Cleveland Browns (2-5) at Denver Broncos (2-6)
Line: Browns by 4. Total: 39.5.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

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DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos were favored by two points prior to Monday’s news that Joe Flacco would miss this game because he has a pain in his neck. Now, Cleveland is favored, and understandably so, as the Broncos will be starting third-string quarterback Brandon Allen.

Allen impressed me in the preseason a couple of years ago. I thought he played much better than Blake Bortles when the two were with the Jaguars, and I even advocated for him to start because Bortles was so terrible. The Jaguars ended up cutting Allen instead, which turned out to be a foolish decision because Bortles buried them. However, Allen hasn’t looked good the previous two preseasons, so I don’t have much hope for him in this game, especially if the Broncos will be missing Ja’Wuan James. The talented right tackle returned to action last week following a lengthy absence, but was knocked out with an injury. If he’s sidelined once more, his backup will be tasked with blocking Myles Garrett, which is far from ideal.

With Allen under center, the Browns will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage, especially with Emmanuel Sanders gone as well. This will help them contain the run, while Courtland Sutton won’t have much success getting open versus either Denzel Ward or Greedy Williams.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I’m not sure about the Browns being able to move the chains consistently either. Baker Mayfield has struggled this season when seeing pressure, thanks to the poor play of three of his five offensive linemen. The Broncos are missing Bradley Chubb, but Malik Reed has played very well in his absence across from Von Miller. Reed and Miller have a great matchup edge against Cleveland’s incompetent tackles.

Mayfield has also played poorly when opposing defenses have been able to take away his first read. Chris Harris Jr. should be able to smother Odell Beckham Jr., so Mayfield will have to look toward Jarvis Landry more often. The Broncos don’t cover the slot well when Harris isn’t in it, so Mayfield and Landry could have some success in that regard.

Nick Chubb, meanwhile, will be looking to redeem himself after his two fumbles in New England. The problem is that the Broncos are tremendous against the run, so they should be able to limit Chubb, despite his great talent.

RECAP: I like to bet on good teams missing their starting quarterback, especially in the first game he’s out. However, the Broncos are far from a good team, especially if James is sidelined.

I want to wager the Browns and fade Allen, but there are two problems. First, I don’t like the idea of betting into this public money with a bad team. And second, umm, Cleveland is a bad team. I don’t trust the Browns to move the chains with any sort of regularity against the Broncos.

I’m still going to be on the Browns in this contest, but I wouldn’t be rushing to the window (or the sportsbook tab in Chrome) to wager on them, just because they’re playing against a third-string quarterback.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still have no interest into betting into this public money with a bad team. If you like the Browns, you may want to bet them now before this spread rises to -3.5 (BetUS still has -3 -125).

SATURDAY NOTES: Not only will the Broncos be missing Joe Flacco, they’ll be down right tackle Ja’Wuan James again. Their offensive line will once again struggle, especially against Myles Garrett and company. I’m not going to bet much on this game, though I considered Cleveland in the Supercontest because that line is -3; not the -4.5 it has risen to. It’s worth noting that -3.5 -115 is currently available at Bookmaker, which is worth exploring.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The public has driven this spread up to -4, and yet there’s been no push-back from the sharps. It wouldn’t surprise me if this spread kept rising. I have no interest in betting a Freddie Kitchens-coached team with this much public money backing it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has remained at -4, surpisingly. I still have no interest in betting this game.


The Motivation. Edge: Browns.
Denver’s season ended with last week’s loss and Joe Flacco’s injury, so the players could be checked out.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -3.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.5.
Computer Model: Browns -2.
DVOA Spread: Browns -3.


The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Will anyone want to bet on Brandon Allen?

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 81% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Broncos are 23-13 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Opening Line: Broncos -1.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 48 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Browns 26, Broncos 20
Browns -3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 39.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 24, Browns 19

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Green Bay Packers (7-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-5)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 49.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 12 continues. Emmitt’s Patriots attempt to not look past the Dolphins. Meanwhile, Emmitt Snow Jr. attempts to win an election so he can order more ketchup from Heinz to stop the White Russians.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the The Worst Beer Purchase.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers made some ridiculous throws against the Chiefs. He’s been unstoppable, and Davante Adams hasn’t even played since Week 4. It seems as though Adams has a good chance of returning this week, which doesn’t bode well for the Chargers.

The Chargers have some major holes in their secondary for Rodgers to exploit, especially if Adams returns. The safety play is very poor, so I expect Rodgers to take complete advantage of this. The only way San Angeles stands a chance of containing Rodgers is if Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram can put pressure on him, but I don’t think they’ll be able to do that with any consistency if David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga are on the field.

Of course, Rodgers may not need to do anything if his team establishes Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. That should be very easy to do; the Chargers have been missing their top two defensive tackles, which is why David Montgomery just had the best game of his career.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers haven’t been able to block very well for most of the year, but that changed last week when Russell Okung returned from blood clots in his lungs. Okung provided a huge boost on the blind side, and his presence will be imperative for blocking one of the Smith brothers. There’s still a big hole at right tackle, but Okung’s presence will at least ensure that Philip Rivers’ blind side is protected well.

Giving Rivers some time will allow the future Hall of Famer to exploit the holes in Green Bay’s defense. The Packers are much better on this side of the ball this year, but they still have some weaknesses, and they’ve been blowing some coverages. Rivers moved the chains well versus the Bears last week when his receivers weren’t dropping passes and Keenan Allen wasn’t slipping on the grass, so the Chargers should be able to have success offensively.

I will say though that the Chargers could get in their own way when they decide to run the ball with Melvin Gordon. The talented runner has looked sluggish ever since returning from his holdout, and the Chargers waste downs every time they hand him the ball. It’s ridiculous at this point that Austin Ekeler is not handling more touches than Gordon. Perhaps Ken Whisenhunt’s successor will fix that.

RECAP: I have a dilemma concerning this game. I want to bet on the Packers right now, but I don’t know what the unit count will be because the size of my wager will depend on the status of several players on the injury report. The unit count in this contest could range from two to four. I won’t rule out five either, but 2-4 seems like the correct range.

Here’s the problem: This spread is sure to rise. The juice has already increased to -125 in most places. Bovada even has a -3.5 listed. There so much public money coming in on the Packers, and the sharps aren’t pushing back to keep this line steady. I could see this line moving to -4, or even -4.5.

Here’s my solution: I’m going to hedge and wager half of the potential unit count now. I’m going to lock in two units on the Packers at BetUS for -3 -125. If the injury report is favorable, I’ll add units at what I expect to be an inflated spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As expected, the Packers have moved up to -3.5. In hindsight, I should’ve bet them at four units. If I decided I didn’t like them enough to make them a four-unit wager, I could’ve effectively sold two units by betting the other side. That’s a strategy to file away for the future.

SATURDAY NOTES: The injury report is as grim for the Chargers as I thought it would be, save for Russell Okung being able to play for the second week in a row. The Chargers will be down both of their defensive tackles, as well as three safeties. Keep that in mind as they’re tasked with containing Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams, who practiced all week. I’m increasing my unit count to four or five, depending on if we get something like -3 -125 or better.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: So much for getting a -3 -125 or better! The -3.5s are gone, and this spread is -4. Like Browns-Broncos, the public is pounding the Packers, while the sharps are staying away. I’m considering adding a third unit on Green Bay. I’ll have a final update around 3:45 Eastern.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to add a third unit. The Packers are available at -3.5 -115 on FanDuel’s sportsbook. I’m frustrated with myself that I just didn’t bet three or four units on -3 -125 in the first place.


The Motivation. Edge: Packers.
The Chargers will be playing at “home” in front of a sea of Packer fans.


The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.5.
Computer Model: Packers -3.
DVOA Spread: Packers -4.


The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
This might be the most lopsided-bet game of the week.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 85% (20,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 93-63 ATS since 2009.

Chargers are 6-13 ATS in San Angeles.

Opening Line: Pacers -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Sunny, 73 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Packers 27, Chargers 17
Packers -3 -125 (2 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$250
Packers -3.5 -115 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$115 — Incorrect; $0
Under 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 26, Packers 11

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New England Patriots (8-0) at Baltimore Ravens (5-2)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Nov. 3, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Bill Belichick has humiliated two quarterbacks from the 2018 NFL Draft, so he’ll attempt to make it three-for-three in as many weeks. Lamar Jackson has been better than Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield this year, but mostly as a runner and not a passer, if you exclude the Miami game.

I have to believe that Belichick will be able to confuse Jackson, just like he did with Darnold and Mayfield. Jackson, of course, will attempt to counter by scrambling, but the Patriots are well coached and disciplined, so their excellent linebackers might have a chance to contain Jackson on the ground.

If the Patriots can prevent Jackson from going off as a scrambler, they’ll stand a good chance of completely disrupting the Ravens’ scoring attack. Jackson won’t be able to throw to Marquise Brown, who will be smothered by Stephon Gilmore, so he’ll have limited options at his disposal.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady has had issues beating the Ravens over the years, including the 2012 AFC Championship when Baltimore went into Foxborough and prevailed. However, this is the first time Brady will be battling the Ravens without Ray Lewis, Ed Reed or Terrell Suggs being on the field. Suggs’ absence has been huge for Baltimore this year, as the team hasn’t been able to pressure the quarterback consistently.

That is not a good formula against Brady. We know by now that the only way to beat Brady is to pressure him heavily with four players and play man coverage underneath, much like the Giants were able to do in their two Super Bowl victories over him. The Ravens would have been able to do that last year when they had Suggs and Za’Darius Smith, but their edge-rushing options are now extremely limited.

Brady will have all the time in the world to locate his receivers. This would’ve been disastrous for the Ravens before they traded for Marcus Peters. Their secondary has now improved, but there are still some holes for Brady to exploit. This also includes a linebacking corps that hasn’t covered as well in the wake of C.J. Mosley’s departure.

RECAP: This is a very difficult game to handicap. Here’s why:

Why the Ravens are appealing: John Harbaugh is an excellent coach, and he’s had extra time to prepare for this game. That’s a huge boost for the Ravens. Also, some metrics say this spread is on the wrong side of three. My calculated line is New England -2.5, while DVOA says this spread should be -2.

Why the Patriots are appealing: Betting against Belichick and Brady is foolish, barring extreme circumstances. Belichick is the master of taming young quarterbacks, as we’ve seen in recent weeks, and his schemes should be able to frustrate Jackson. Also, the advance spread on this game was New England -5.5, so from that perspective, we’re getting some great line value on the visitor.

I am almost certainly not going to bet this game. As far as picking it on this site, I thought about it and ultimately came to the conclusion that I might be overthinking things. I’m going to stick with Belichick and Brady over a quarterback who hasn’t thrown consistently well as a pro quite yet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Ravens, which is why this spread has dropped to +3. I think there’s some merit to betting New England -3, but I’m fearful of John Harbaugh coming off a bye, plus Tom Brady’s shoulder might be injured.

SATURDAY NOTES: Baltimore’s secondary will be intact for the first time all year, which will obviously be a huge boost in trying to defend Tom Brady. The most likely result of this game is New England winning by three, so I don’t really see an incentive to betting this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This remains the most difficult game of the week to handicap. I won’t have a wager on this game, barring a late-breaking injury.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m too tilted to even consider betting this game after idiot kicker Jason Myers whiffed at the end of regulation, forcing the game to overtime where the Seahawks won the coin toss (of course) and scored the winning touchdown to ruin a Tampa cover. At any rate, I don’t see why this game would be worth betting. The most likely result is New England winning by three. John Harbaugh having extra time to prepare should help the Ravens potentially win, but I wouldn’t want to bet against the Patriots. The sharps took Baltimore at +3.5, but not +3.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -2.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -5.5.
Computer Model: Patriots -3.
DVOA Spread: Patriots -2.


The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
Not as much money on the Patriots as you’d expect.

Percentage of money on New England: 77% (58,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 243-73 as a starter (181-121 ATS).

Patriots are 18-21 ATS as road favorites since 2013.

Tom Brady is 20-11 ATS on Sunday Night Football.

Opening Line: Patriots -4.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Clear, 40 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Ravens 23
Patriots -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 37, Patriots 20

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Dallas Cowboys (4-3) at New York Giants (2-6)
Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 48.
Monday, Nov. 4, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Dallas, a.k.a. the worst place in the world. Tonight, two idiot teams play each other. It’s the Dallas Cowgirls and the New York Va-giants. Guys, everyone hates these teams, so I think it’s my duty to make sure everyone on the field tonight dies. So, I’m going to take another break from sending Herm Edwards and Charles Davis to a Ukranian prison.

Emmitt: Benny, there one thing I disagreement with you. You call the Dallas team the Cowgirls. This not uncorrect. The real name of the Cowboy team are the Cowboy, which a lot different than Cowgirl because the thing at the end say that the cow in question either a boy or a girl.

Reilly: Emmitt, can you just shut up and let me have my moment? Wait a second, I’m getting a text. It must be from Mother because I’m on the family emergency plan. Mother says that I’ll be grounded if I kill anyone, which means I won’t get macaroni and cheese. Oh well, I guess I’ll just have to con them into buying fake football toys like I did one time.

Tollefson: Kevin, stop acting like a little kid. No one plays with football toys. However, I have lots of sex toys that I use on the women I kidnap. How about I sell you some of those? I have a rare sex toy I can sell you for $500. It cost me $2,000, so you’re getting it at a huge discount!

Reilly: Tolly, if Mother catches me with a sex toy, it’ll be lights out for me for sure! I probably won’t get macaroni and cheese for dinner for a week! I’ll have to settle for spaghetti and meatballs!

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Did I hear someone mention spaghetti and meatballs? This is a real good meal. And it’s real good because it has two things. It has the spaghetti, and it also has the meatballs. If it was just the spaghetti, you wouldn’t have the spaghetti. You would have the meatball. And that’s not real good. Because if you have the meatball, then you don’t have the spaghetti. Just the meatball. And you can’t have the spaghetti without the meatball. Because then you would have just spaghetti. And no meatball.

Reilly: Wow, so insightful, Jason Witten! Thanks for wasting everyone’s time for a whole minute! Now, everyone, watch me try to con the Cowboys and Giants!

Fouts: And here’s what Kevin means by con. Sometimes, there’s a bad thing. That’s called a con. And sometimes, there’s a good thing. That’s a pro. This is called pros and cons. Because sometimes you can have good things, and you can have bad things at the same time.

Wolfley: DAN, IN MY HOME LAND, THERE ARE PROS, CONS AND FLOMS. PROS ARE GOOD THINGS. CONS ARE BAD THIINGS. AND FLOMS ARE PENCILS WITH EYEBROWS AND MISSING TEETH.

Reilly: Shut up! No one cares about your flams. New Daddy, you’re the sideline reporter. Get one of the Cowboys and Giants to buy one of my fake toys!

Cutler: OK, hey Ezekiel Elliott. Yeah, you. I have a message for you. I- uhh- already forgot and don’t care about what it is. Never mind.

Reilly: No, New Daddy! You’re supposed to help me sell stolen merchandise as the sideline reporter! Fine, I’ll just do it myself! Hey, Zeke, want to buy my Nick Moles bobblehead!? How about a Carsten Wince bobblehead!? How about a Zach Hertz bobblehead!?

Herm: Don’t buy, Zeke! Don’t do it! Don’t buy! Don’t purchase! Don’t pay! Don’t collect! 1-800-Collect! Call that number! But don’t buy the product! Don’t- umm- uhh-

Reilly: No, you just ruined my sale!

Charles Davis: Kevin, let me sell you some real bobbleheads, Kevin. These are college players who could become Eagles, Kevin. If you buy now, Kevin, they might be worth tenfold, Kevin. How about a Tango Tuavailoa bobblehead, Kevin? What about a Jordan Herbert bobblehead, Kevin? Why don’t we try a Thomas Andrews bobblehead, Kevin? How about we go with a Judge Jeudy bobblehead, Kevin. I know, how about a D’Andre Fast, bobblehead, Kevin? What about a K.J. Bobbins, Kevin? Let’s discuss you buying a Chase Old bobblehead, Kevin? How can we get you into a Walker Large bobblehead, Kevin? What if I give you all of these for 200 quid, Kevin? Do we have a deal, Kevin?

Reilly: YES! YES! AND YOU DIDN’T EVEN ASK ME A QUESTION AT THE END LIKE YOU USUALLY DO! I’LL TAKE THEM ALL, SUCKER! WE’LL SEE HOW MUCH THEY’RE WORTH SOON! I RIPPED YOU OFF, A**HOLE! We’ll be back after this!

DALLAS OFFENSE: We saw what the Cowboys are capable of during the season opener when they demolished the Giants, 35-17. Dak Prescott was a near-perfect 25-of-32 for 405 yards and four touchdowns. This was surprising at the time, but that’s before we learned how truly awful New York’s defense is. The Giants haven’t been able to stop anyone this year besides a dysfunctional Redskin team playing its third-string rookie quarterback.

There is one difference in this rematch on this side of the ball, and that would be Leonard Williams’ presence on the defensive line. The Giants just acquired the extremely talented Williams from the Jets for a pair of draft choices. He’ll help put pressure on opposing quarterbacks in most matchups, but the Cowboys protect very well with their offensive line completely intact.

Williams will, at least, help the Giants contain Ezekiel Elliott. The star runner didn’t play much in the first meeting because he was coming back from a holdout, but the Giants won’t be lucky enough to avoid him this time. Williams’ presence will help mitigate that.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: There’s quite the difference on this side of the ball since the last time these teams met, as Daniel Jones has taken over for the decrepit Eli Manning, who was dreadful in the opener. Golden Tate wasn’t on the field either, and the same goes for Saquon Barkley. Granted, Barkley technically played, but head coach Pat Shurmur limited his touches for some strange reason.

Jones will be much better than Manning was, and not only by default. The Cowboys have some issues with their defense, including a lacking pass rush. Jones has struggled when pressured heavily – as you might expect from most quarterbacks who maintain poor ball security – so having some time in the pocket will help him find his talented weapons against a back seven with some holes in it.

Barkley, meanwhile, figures to have a huge game unless Shurmur decides not to fully utilize him again. We’ve seen the Cowboys get gashed via the run in recent weeks – particularly against the Packers – so Barkley should be able to duplicate that performance.

RECAP: This spread is incredibly inflated. My calculated line for this game is Dallas -3.5. The DVOA numbers agree; DVOA says Dallas -3.5 is the correct spread as well.

No one should be surprised by this. The Cowboys are a very public team playing on national TV. People will want to bet them. Thus, the inflated number.

Let’s take advantage of this by betting the Giants heavily. The Giants are more functional now than they were in Week 1. They should be able to keep this close and perhaps even threaten a back-door cover if they need it. Dallas’ defense is sketchy, so Jones should be able to throw successfully late in regulation.

I’ve noted that we have the motivational and Vegas angles favoring the Giants. The motivational angle goes New York’s way as well. The Cowboys are high road favorites against a team they destroyed already, and they have to battle the Vikings next week. Meanwhile, the Giants will be looking to avenge their embarrassing Week 1 defeat.

With three angles favoring the Giants, they’re worthy of a four- or five-unit bet. I’m going with the latter.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We haven’t seen much of the injury report lately, but it sounds like Sterling Shepard will be back this week. That means the Giants could have their offense fully intact for the first time all year. Meanwhile, the defense will be enhanced by Leonard Williams for the first time.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps are starting to bet the Giants because Leighton Vander Esch might miss this game. This spread is beginning to fall, so I’m going to lock in New York +7. The best juice I can find is -114 at Bookmaker (-115 at 5Dimes, BetUS and Bovada). Perhaps this goes back up to +7 -110, but I don’t want to risk losing out on a +7 completely.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Bovada still has +7 -120 available. All of the other +7s are gone, thanks to sharp money on the Giants.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Leighton Vander Esch is out, which is huge. That would explain why the sharps jumped on the Giants. This spread has fallen to +6.5 -115 at sharp books, but you can still get +7 -120 at Bovada. I’d rather bet +7 -120 than +6.5, but it’s close. I’m still on New York for five units.


The Motivation. Edge: Giants.
This is revenge for the Giants, who were blown out against the Cowboys in Week 1. Dallas, meanwhile, could be looking ahead to Baltimore.


The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -3.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -8.
Computer Model: Cowboys -10.
DVOA Spread: Cowboys -3.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
This seems like easy money for the public.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 73% (60,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Cowboys have won 10 of the last 13 meetings.

The underdog is 88-59 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Opening Line: Cowboys -7.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Cloudy, 49 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Cowboys 23, Giants 20
Giants +7 -115 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$575
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 37, Giants 18

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week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games
49ers at Cardinals, Texans at Jaguars, Redskins at Bills, Vikings at Chiefs, Jets at Dolphins, Bears at Eagles, Colts at Steelers, Titans at Panthers




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games



NFL Picks - Nov. 20


2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20


NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19


Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4




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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3
Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5
Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)