NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)

NFL Picks (2019): 68-43-1 (+$7,935)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 20, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games







Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 49.
Thursday, Oct. 17, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

Week 6 Recap: We’ve been having a great year, and yet Week 6 was the best week yet. I finished 9-5 (+$2,505), which was our best week of all time, dollars-wise! This was the fourth week in a row we had a four-figure winning week, which is the first time that has ever happened. Let’s go for five in a row!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs were explosive in the opening quarter against the Texans, scoring 17 points in a flash. Some of that came off Houston turnovers. Some of that was the result of the Texans surrendering third-and-long conversions amid penalties. The scoring stopped almost completely after that, however, as the problems that plagued the Chiefs on Sunday night versus the Colts resurfaced.

The Chiefs have offensive line issues, as they’re playing without two starting blockers. This is more problematic than it would normally be, considering Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury. Mahomes can’t move around the pocket like he normally can, which will be an issue versus a Denver defense that logged seven sacks against the Titans.

I don’t see the Chiefs running very well either. The Broncos have made some changes since they were gashed by Leonard Fournette for 225 rushing yards, and their run defense has improved as a result. They’ve limited Melvin Gordon and Derrick Henry the past two weeks, so they shouldn’t have much of an issue versus the inferior Kansas City backs, who aren’t getting adequate blocking.

DENVER OFFENSE: I haven’t finished addressing the Chiefs’ problems just yet. They’re also missing two starters on the defensive line, which is why they haven’t been able to stop the run at all. It was one thing for Marlon Mack to gash them on a recent Sunday night; it was another to watch Carlos Hyde stomp all over them. The Chiefs couldn’t get off the field last week because they couldn’t tackle Hyde, who is one of the worst starting running backs in the NFL.

Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman are like future first-ballot Hall of Famers if you compare them to Hyde. Lindsay is very explosive, so he could have an enormous night. Freeman figures to perform on a high level, too. Both backs will trample the Chiefs’ injury-ravaged front, which will open up favorable opportunities for Joe Flacco.

Speaking of Flacco, I like his chances of torching the Kansas City secondary. The Chiefs have surrendered big plays to receivers all year, and Flacco has developed quite the rapport with both Courtland Sutton and Royce Freeman.

RECAP: The Chiefs beat the Broncos by four in Denver last year. That Kansas City team was better (and much healthier) than this one, while the two Bronco teams are even. With that in mind, I think this spread is too high. My calculated line is Kansas City -1.5, so we’re getting some good value with the home underdog.

Assuming the injury report reveals that the Chiefs are still going to be down multiple offensive and defensive linemen, I’m going to be on the Broncos for a couple units. I’m more than happy to fade the uninformed public, which is betting the Chiefs at an absurd 80-percent clip.

My Week 7 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has fallen to +3, thanks to sharp action on the Broncos. I thought about moving this to three units, but I hate not getting the +3.5, so I’ll keep this wager at two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread continues to move in Denver’s favor despite all of the public money on Kansas City. The sharps are the ones driving this spread down. The best line I can find is Denver +3 -115 at 5Dimes. I’d still take that for two units.




The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -1.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.5.
Computer Model: Chiefs -3.
DVOA Spread: Chiefs -2.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
People are still willing to pound the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 81% (24,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Chiefs have won the last 7 meetings.

Broncos are 23-12 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 73 degrees. Light wind.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Chiefs 27, Broncos 26
Broncos +3 (2 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$220
Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 30, Broncos 6

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Arizona Cardinals (2-3-1) at New York Giants (2-4)
Line: Giants by 3.5. Total: 50.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW YORK GIANTS: The Giants’ mini-bye week came at the exact, right time. They were a MASH unit this past Thursday night, as they were missing every skill-position player on offense, save for Golden Tate. With nine days off, they’re expected to get Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram back from injury.

The Cardinals will also be welcoming back Patrick Peterson from suspension. While this is an obvious upgrade to the secondary, Peterson is not guaranteed to perform on a Pro Bowl level. We’ve seen some other perennial Pro Bowlers – Taylor Lewan, Melvin Gordon – return from layoffs and struggle. That’s not guaranteed to happen for Peterson, but it’s a possibility. Still, he won’t be worse than what Arizona had at cornerback already. He’ll give the Cardinals a legitimate chance to cover Shepard.

The problem is that Arizona still has to defend everyone else. Stopping Barkley and Engram will be especially problematic. The Cardinals’ linebacking corps is an abomination. It has been torched by almost every tight end this year, and Engram should continue that trend. Barkley, meanwhile, will rip right through a defense that had trouble containing Devonta Freeman last week.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It was nice to see what Kyler Murray was capable of with adequate pass protection last week. Murray torched the Falcons in the opening half, throwing for 240 yards prior to intermission. He may have eclipsed 400 yards had the Falcons not controlled the time of possession so well following halftime. Murray had so much success because his offensive line held up well against Atlanta’s non-existent pass rush.

The Giants also have a lacking pass rush, so Murray figures to have success this week. The Giants are atrocious at defending the pass in every regard. They’re very weak to slot receivers, which is imperative, given that Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk both play out of the slot.

David Johnson also figures to perform on a high level. The Giants’ linebacking corps has been poor for years, and that continues to be the case in 2019. Johnson will run circles around these incompetent players for what should once again be a terrific performance for him.

RECAP: I don’t really see anything from this game that indicates that we should be betting on it. The most likely result from this contest is the Giants winning by three, and that’s exactly what the spread is.

The next most likely result is probably the Cardinals winning by a field goal, so I think I’ll be on Arizona. It’s worth noting that the public is wagering on the host at a two-thirds clip, yet despite all of the money coming in on the Giants, this spread is trending downward – it might hit -2.5 soon – which indicates that there’s some sharp money on the Cardinals. Also, the computer model says this line should be New York -1, though my personal number says that -3 is correct.

Hopefully I can find something later on during the week that makes one side stand out, but for now, I don’t see any reason to bet this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing stands out to me just yet, but perhaps the injury report will unearth something. I’m still on a zero-unit lean toward Arizona.

SATURDAY NOTES: The injury report has revealed nothing beyond Sterling Shepard being out, but I don’t care about that. I’ll be passing on this game, though it’s worth noting that the public is all over the Giants, and yet the books don’t want to move off -3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has risen to -3.5, perhaps because Christian Kirk is out. I think the Cardinals might be worth a small play at +3.5, but I’ll lay off.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Giants -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Giants -3.
Computer Model: Giants -1.
DVOA Spread: Giants -3.


The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
Tons of money coming in on the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 73% (25,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Giants -1.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Possible light rain, 59 degrees. Light wind.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Giants 24, Cardinals 23
Cardinals +3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 50 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 27, Giants 21

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Houston Texans (4-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2)
Line: Colts by 1. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 38-44-3 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets this week:

Cowboys -8.5

Seahawks +2.5

Falcons -2.5

Patriots -17

Chiefs -3.5

Chargers -7

The books went 5-1 in Week 4, but dropped to 2-3 in Week 5, as the public got some revenge. Sportsbooks crushed the public by going 4-2 in Week 6. Sportsbooks are now now 19-16-1 on lopsided bets this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers -10

Chiefs -5.5

Jaguars -3

Vikings -1

Saints +3.5

Eagles +3

Rams -3

There are seven lopsided-bet games this week. Three are public dogs.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans are suddenly getting lots of hype, thanks to their 50-point output versus Atlanta and their win in Kansas City. It’s amazing that everyone has quickly forgotten that the Texans lost at home to Kyle Allen and nearly suffered a defeat to Gardner Minshew as hosts as well!

The Texans had an easy time scoring on the Falcons and Chiefs because those teams have no pass rushes to speak of. Atlanta and Kansas City couldn’t take advantage of Houston’s pedestrian offensive line. Indianapolis can. The Colts may have lost upstart edge rusher Kemoko Turay to a season-ending injury, but they still have Justin Houston and Jabaal Sheard to rush from the edge. Denico Autry, meanwhile, has done a good job of creating havoc in the interior. The trio will place heavy pressure on Deshaun Watson, forcing some mistakes and many more punts from him.

The Colts have a good defense overall – they should stop the run as well – but their weakness lately has been surrendering some big gains to receivers, thanks to injuries at safety. If Watson gets time in the pocket, he’ll be able to find DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller for big gains. However, we’ve seen Watson struggle to connect with them whenever he’s battled a quality defensive opponent like Carolina and Jacksonville, so it’s reasonable to expect the same thing to occur versus the Colts.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Texans limited the Chiefs to just seven points following the opening quarter last week. It was a tremendous feat, though a misleading one as well. The Chiefs clearly aren’t themselves because they have two injured offensive linemen who aren’t around to protect a hobbled Patrick Mahomes. The Texans were able to pressure Mahomes, which was problematic for the young quarterback because he couldn’t avoid the pass rush effectively.

The Colts won’t have such issues. First of all, Jacoby Brissett is healthy. Granted, he’s nowhere near Mahomes in talent, but Brissett has done a great job of managing the offense. He has completed nearly 65 percent of his passes and maintained a 10:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s been terrific in some games, particularly versus the Chargers and Falcons. Those teams have terrible defenses, but Brissett could have similar success because the Texans’ defense is a funnel to deep completions. Houston’s secondary is a mess, so I expect T.Y. Hilton to have a huge performance.

Second, the Colts have the best offensive line in the business. The Texans were able to pressure their most recent opponents very effectively, but only because the Falcons and Chiefs don’t protect their quarterbacks well at the moment. Indianapolis does, so Brissett will have plenty of time to find Hilton and his other targets for big gains.

RECAP: If you’ve been reading this Web site for a long time, you know that I love betting against public dogs. The Texans qualify as one, as casual bettors are wagering them at a near two-thirds clip. Most people assume the Texans are going to beat the Colts, even though Indianapolis is favored. This is part of a skewed narrative, perpetrated by incompetent sports news outlets like ESPN. The Texans have suddenly been branded as one of the better teams in the NFL, yet no one recognizes that they were 2-2 before they were able to take advantage of two teams with major injury issues on the offensive line and defense.

The Colts are the superior team. Excluding quarterback and receiver, they’re even or better at almost every position. Despite this, they’re not even favored by a field goal, even though they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game!

I think that’s huge, especially considering who Indianapolis’ head coach is. I have tremendous respect for Frank Reich, as I see him as one of the best coaches in the NFL. I have to believe that with extra time, he’s been able to devise a great game plan to beat the Texans. Meanwhile, Houston is coming off a huge win in Arrowhead and is getting tons of praise, so it may not be fully focused for this contest as a result.

The Colts are my one of my top two picks of the week. I made this line Indianapolis -3.5, so to be getting the three with the Colts is huge, given that this the most likely result of this game. I’m on the Colts for five units, and if I like what I see from the injury report – i.e. Darius Leonard returning from concussion (I don’t expect him to play) – we might even enter Pick of the Month territory.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I love the Colts, still. The Texans are not as big of a public dog anymore, but this spread is still way short of what it should be.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s good news and bad news regarding the Colts’ injury report. The good news is that Darius Leonard isn’t even on it. He’ll play this Sunday, which will be huge. The bad news is that the Colts will be down Kenny Moore, Malik Hooker and probably Pierre Desir, which means they’ll be missing three starters in the secondary. This is horrible news, and it makes the Colts look slightly less appealing. This might drop to a three- or four-unit pick, depending on whether or not Justin Houston and Quenton Nelson suit up. Both are questionable, but the beat writers epxect them to play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some great news for the Colts: Justin Houston, Quenton Nelson and Pierre Desir are all active. This will be a five-unit play on Indianapolis. Both 5Dimes and Bovada still have -1 -110 available.


The Motivation. Edge: Colts.
The Texans are coming off a big win in Kansas City and are a bit of a public underdog in Indianapolis.


The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -3.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -3.
Computer Model: Texans -1.
DVOA Spread: Colts -1.5.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 52% (25,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 27 of the 35 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -1.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Colts 24, Texans 17
Colts -1 (5 Units) – Bovada/5Dimes — Correct; +$500
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 30, Texans 23

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Miami Dolphins (0-5) at Buffalo Bills (4-1)
Line: Bills by 17. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Here’s some hate mail from last week:



Here’s the screenshot:



Ignore the Eagles pick; I placed that for my dad. I tried to talk him out of it, but he wouldn’t listen!

Here’s someone who had a couple of bad takes on the games:



I’ll give this guy credit though. At least he posted this before the games. Lots of haters tend to criticize in hindsight.

Here’s someone who likes to use the word “dog” to describe humans, even though I don’t identify as a dog. Bigot!



I’ve had an argument about what a blowout is with several people this week. That Chiefs-Ravens game was a blowout. It was 30-13 when the Chiefs stopped playing hard. Baltimore had some late scores to make it close, but Kansas City wasn’t trying.

Think about it this way: You and I are playing a game of one-on-one basketball. You’re much better than me, so you go up 10-1, with the game being until 11. Because you’re up big, you start clowning around, taking weird hookshots and playing no defense. Because you’re not covering me anymore, and you’re taking dumb shots, I score seven baskets in a row to make it 10-8. Then, you realize you need to win and score very easily to prevail, 11-8.

If someone asks what the score is, and you say it was 11-8, they’ll go, “Oh wow, that was close!” Except it wasn’t close, and if they had watched the game, they’d know it wasn’t close. That’s exactly what Chiefs-Ravens was. It was a blowout that became close because the Chiefs were clowning around.

Anyway, that’s my rant for this week.

ONE-SIDED MATCHUP: As I’ve written before, I’m not providing analysis for the Dolphins. They’re the worst team in NFL history, and they’re not trying to win. There’s no point in writing a breakdown for their games.

RECAP: My friend Tom, an avid bettor, texted me Tuesday morning: “Buffalo -17!? I know it’s the Dolphins, but the Bills have only scored more than 17 twice.” My response: “But they also haven’t played the Dolphins yet!”

I know I’m not delving into matchups for the Dolphins, but I just don’t see how they score against the Bills’ defense. Thus far, Miami has battled the Ravens, Patriots, Cowboys, Chargers and Redskins. Of those five teams, only the Patriots have a quality defense. The Dolphins have struggled to score against the other four teams despite the Ravens, Cowboys, Chargers and Redskins all having major defensive problems. The Bills are more like New England, which shut out the Bills. The Patriots even scored two defensive touchdowns.

I don’t know if the Bills will score two defensive touchdowns, but one is very possible. If so, the Bills’ offense will only need to score 11 points against a horrible defense to cover, and I believe that will happen.

Despite this spread seemingly being very high, I’m going to continue my trend of betting against the Dolphins. I’m fading them for my usual two units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s amazing that nearly two-thirds of the public action is on the Dolphins. What are people thinking, seriously?

SATURDAY NOTES: Josh Allen injured his hand on a throw versus the Titans. He’ll play, but he was on the injury report. That’s a bit worrying even though he was a full participant. I’m going to remove possible wagers on the Bills until I know that Allen is healthy.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Dolphins will be missing Xavien Howard, so that’s appealing for John Brown’s outlook. I’d bet the Dolphins if I were confident in Josh Allen’s health.


The Motivation. Edge: Bills.
The Dolphins aren’t trying.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -18.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -15.5.
Computer Model: Bills -17.
DVOA Spread: Bills -16.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
The public can’t believe they’re getting so many points with the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 65% (20,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 8 of the last 12 meetings.

Opening Line: Bills -17.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 64 degees. Light wind.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Bills 34, Dolphins 7
Bills -17 (0 units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 31, Dolphins 21

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Minnesota Vikings (4-2) at Detroit Lions (2-2-1)
Line: Vikings by 2.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings weren’t favored on the advance spread, but they now are because of what happened recently. Kirk Cousins torched the Eagles relentlessly, and did the same to the Giants the previous week, and now the public believes that Minnesota is an unstoppable force. My, how quickly things can change!

Call me crazy, but I’m not buying the Vikings at all. Cousins is not a bad quarterback, so he was able to take advantage of two dreadful secondaries. The Lions, conversely, defend the pass very well. They have one of the top slot cornerbacks in Justin Coleman, who will be able to hang with Adam Thielen, who has been playing more out of the slot recently. Meanwhile, Darius Slay is one of the better outside cornerbacks in the NFL, so I like his chances of hanging with Stefon Diggs.

Making matters worse for Cousins, I like what the Lions have up front against Minnesota’s offensive line. The Vikings have some major issues up front, so the Lions should be able to win the battle in the trenches. This will also adversely affect Dalvin Cook’s ability to run the ball, though I like Cook’s matchup against Detroit’s linebackers in the passing attack.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Vikings don’t block well, but the Lions certainly do. They don’t have an elite blocking unit, but the front has done a good job shielding Matthew Stafford for the most part. This is crucial for this matchup, given how talented the Vikings are up front.

While Minnesota has a stellar defense, the team has issues at cornerback. Xavier Rhodes has struggled this year, while the other corners aren’t playing well either. We just saw Alshon Jeffery go off this past Sunday, while Sterling Shepard could have enjoyed a big game the week before had Daniel Jones not missed him for a couple of touchdowns. I like Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones’ chances of getting open.

Meanwhile, the Viking linebackers, while stout against the run, have been a funnel to tight ends and pass-catching running backs producing well because of their inability to cover. I like Kerryon Johnson’s receiving chances, while T.J. Hockenson could perform well if he doesn’t drop several passes like Zach Ertz did last week.

RECAP: I don’t understand why the Vikings are favored. Well, I do, actually. It’s an overreaction to what the public saw the past two weeks. Minnesota did a good job of exploiting good matchups, beating down a rookie quarterback-horrible defense combo in the Meadowlands, and then stomping all over the cornerback-challenged Eagles at home.

It’s amazing how quickly people forget that this same Minnesota team looked utterly helpless in Chicago, losing 16-6. I believe we’ll see that version of the Vikings in this game against a Detroit defense that should be able to pressure Cousins.

With that in mind, this spread is way off. I think the Lions are better than the Vikings; Detroit would be 5-0 right now if it wasn’t for the fourth quarter in Arizona and some horrible officiating at the end of the Green Bay game. I made this line Detroit -4. Yet, the Vikings are favored by one because of the overreaction!

Even better, the Lions have the motivational advantage in this game as well. The Vikings, coming off a statement revenge game against the Eagles, have to play in four days. I don’t think they’ll be fully focused for the Lions, who will be more desperate, given that they have to win in order to avoid dropping to below .500.

This is a five-unit selection at the moment. If this spread continues to rise in Minnesota’s favor and hits +3, I’ll consider this as my Pick of the Month.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A Detroit +2 line has popped up at Bookmaker and Bovada. I’m going to remain patient and hope for a +3, which would be incredible.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing on the injury report to worry about. Meanwhile, this spread continues to inch closer to +3. It’s currently +2.5 -105 in most books. Buying up is expensive – +3 -130 at Bookmaker and 5Dimes – but it’s an option I’ll explore Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As discussed Saturday, I’m buying up to Detroit +3. The best juice for that is still -130 at both Bookmaker and 5Dimes.


The Motivation. Edge: Lions.
The Vikings are coming off a big win, and they have to play on Thursday night.


The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -4.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Computer Model: Vikings -1.
DVOA Spread: Vikings -1.


The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
All aboard the Vikings’ bandwagon!

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 65% (20,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings have won the last 3 meetings.

Mike Zimmer is 56-29 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Opening Line: Lions -1.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Lions 20, Vikings 13
Lions +3 -130 (5 Units) – 5Dimes/Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$650
Lions +130 (0.5 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$50
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 42, Lions 13

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Oakland Raiders (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (5-1)
Line: Packers by 5. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I’d like to kick things off by promoting my book! It’s available on Amazon, and it’s called A Safety and a Field Goal.

Take a look:



You can buy it here.

2. I’d like to once again rant about the 9:30 a.m. London starts. Words can’t properly describe how stupid they are, but I’ll try my best.

It’s so ridiculous that the NFL is jeopardizing losing its fans with these horrible games. I can’t imagine how terrible it must be for fantasy players on the West Coast. Imagine if you’re a fantasy player in San Francisco. Somehow you’ve avoided stepping on needles and disease-ridden feces in your second-world city and have been able to play fantasy this year without getting bitten by homeless people. However, let’s say you own someone from the 9:30 a.m. game, and they happen to be a game-time decision. That means you have to wake up at 6:20 in the morning to set your fantasy lineup. Who wants to wake up before the sun rises to set a fantasy lineup? It might be hard to do that, so let’s say you oversleep. Now, the player you had in your lineup is giving you a big, fat zero because he was ruled out prior to kickoff.

I don’t know about you, but that would frustrate the hell out of me. If I were a fringe fantasy player, I’d think about quitting entirely. If so, I’d be much less likely to watch football games going forward.

I imagine this has happened to some people already. In fact, I know it has! My friend John, who doesn’t even live on the West Coast, forgot that there was a Sunday morning game and didn’t take Jameis Winston out of his lineup to avoid the bad matchup. This sort of sentiment will continue to fester going forward as long as Roger Goodell keeps scheduling these nonsensical early-morning London games.

This absolutely needs to change. I feel like the NFL is being myopic in this scenario. They see the dollar signs coming in from having a very early game, but they’re not thinking about the harmful long-term ramifications this scheme has.

I’m all for London games, but why can’t they all just start at 1 p.m. Eastern? We don’t need 9:30 a.m. games!

3. Who is the most hated player in football right now? I’m not quite sure, but my dad, unprompted, voiced his opinion when I watched the Thursday night game with him:

Dad: Ezekiel Elliott is the most hated guy in football right now!

Me: Why?

Dad: Because he’s disgusting!

There it is. You heard it here first. Everyone hates Elliott because he’s disgusting.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers would be 4-2 right now if they didn’t get lots of help from the officiating. They struggled to move the chains against the Lions, as their undermanned receiving corps couldn’t get open against a talented secondary. Davante Adams was already out, while injuries to Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison haven’t helped matters.

It’ll be surprising if Adams and Allison suit up for this game, but it shouldn’t matter. The Raiders have a horrible secondary that can’t defend most receivers. This will include Valdes-Scantling and also Allen Lazard. Aaron Rodgers praised the second-year undrafted player for working very hard and making the most of his opportunity. Rodgers showed a nice rapport with Lazard in the second half of Monday’s game, so that could bode well going forward.

Rodgers should have plenty of time in the pocket to find Lazard and Valdes-Scantling, as the Raiders don’t have much of a pass rush. I also worry about the Raiders’ ability to stop the run in the wake of Vontaze Burfict’s suspension. Burfict’s absence will be huge, as I expect Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams to trample their opponent, which is something they couldn’t do Monday night versus a superior Detroit front seven.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Much was made of the Packers’ inability to stop the run, but they looked good stuffing Kerryon Johnson this past Monday night. I thought that narrative was overblown, as Green Bay has the personnel in the front seven to be decent against rushing attacks.

That said, Josh Jacobs is a different sort of runner, and he’s finding nice lanes from an offensive line that has been enhanced by Richie Incognito’s presence. Suspended for the first two games of the year, Incognito has returned to action and been a big difference-maker in the interior. The Raiders have been blocking very well as a result, so Jacobs should be able to benefit in most matchups going forward.

It’s just a question of whether or not the Raiders will have a chance to run the ball, given the deficit. There’s a decent possibility they’ll be behind in this game, which will be problematic for Derek Carr. The Packers have a strong secondary, featuring Jaire Alexander, who should be able to erase Tyrell Williams. Za’Darius Smith should also cause problems for Carr, given his favorable matchup versus left tackle Kolton Miller.

RECAP: Talk about an overreaction! Look at this spread. It’s -6, and some books (the Westgate in Las Vegas) even have -5.5 posted. The advance line was Green Bay -7, yet it has dropped because the public is all aboard the Raiders’ bandwagon after Oakland’s victory over Chicago and Green Bay’s close call versus the Lions.

Let’s try to debunk this narrative that these teams should be within a touchdown of each other in Lambeau. For the Raiders, they managed to beat a Chicago team playing its backup quarterback, who was dreadful in London. The Raiders still have a terrible defense with no pass rush that has been helpless in most matchups this year. As for the Packers, they were battling another top-10 team in Detroit. The Packers never led for a single second in that game, and they got some major help from the officiating. However, they also shot themselves in the foot repeatedly. Aaron Jones fumbled and dropped a touchdown, while a Packer receiver was responsible for an interception at the goal line because of a drop.

These teams are very far apart. My calculated spread is Green Bay -8.5, while the computer model thinks this line should be -8. Yet, thanks to public overreaction and betting, we’re getting tremendous value at -6. Remember, seven and six are the second- and third-most important key numbers in football, so getting both is a huge advantage.

My only worry as far as taking the Packers is that they might be looking ahead to playing the Chiefs next week. However, if the line keeps dropping as the public continues to pound the Raiders, I might be convinced that the Packers won’t overlook Oakland because they might see the 3-2 Raiders as a potential threat.

I’m going to put two units on the Packers for now, but I could see myself increasing this wager later in the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was wrong. I wrote earlier that the public was on the Raiders, but it’s been the sharps who have been betting them. This spread has plummeted as a result. We’re getting lots of line value with the Packers, but this almost seems like a trap to me. I’m going to lay off this game for now, but perhaps I’ll change my mind again during the weekend.

SATURDAY NOTES: Someone asked me to look up the following stat: How do teams coming off Monday night games fare versus opponents who had a bye? Quite well, actually! These teams are 27-12 against the spread since 1989, which is something I did not expect. I assumed it would be something like 12-27, so this result was remarkable. That won’t have anything to do with this pick, however. Two things are more important to me: First, the Packers will potentially be down at least two receivers (Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison) and possibly a third (Marquez Valdes-Scantling). Second, the sharps have been all over the Raiders. However, Oakland has injury problems of its own, as left tackle Trent Brown is doubtful, while guard Gabe Jackson is questionable.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Packers will have all of their receivers available, save for Davante Adams. Meanwhile, the Raiders have worse injury woes, as they’ll be down two starting offensive linemen, including their top blocker, Trent Brown. Given this new information, my bet on the Packers has returned. This will be a three-unit wager on Bovada (-5 -110).


The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.
The Packers have to battle the Chiefs next week, though that game isn’t looming as large with Patrick Mahomes out.


The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -8.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -7.
Computer Model: Packers -8.
DVOA Spread: Packers -6.5.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 54% (20,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Raiders are 19-39 ATS after a win since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 91-63 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Packers -7.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 54 degrees. Light wind.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Packers 27, Raiders 17
Packers -5 (3 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$300
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 42, Raiders 24

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-6)
Line: Jaguars by 4.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Last week, I wrote something about the California pay-to-play laws. Here’s an excerpt:

The result is simple: As with everything else in California, the rich will get richer, while the poor will get poorer. All of the rich schools that can afford to pay the elite players will have an even greater advantage, while the schools struggling to stay afloat will get even worse. There will be no middle class, which, coincidentally, is something that no longer exists in the state of California.

With that in mind, I’m not sure what to make of this. Athletes should be paid in some way, though I think that should be via sponsorships and whatnot. The schools paying the players directly seems weird, even with the insane amount of money they make. However, seeing parity vanish in college football is not very appealing.

This did not sit well with someone in the comments:



I heard otherwise, but if a guy in the comments says I’m wrong about it, I guess I’m wrong.

I could Google it to make sure I’m right, I suppose, but meh. I’ll just let other commenters complain. What’s important is that I got to make fun of California because of its poop and needles problem.

2. We have a new entry in the College Football Coach Firing Grades page. It’s for Kansas firing offensive coordinator Les Koenning. Check it out to see what we think of Kansas’ firing.

3. Speaking of Kansas, I discussed the possibility of the Sooners being overrated because the Jayhawks would’ve been up 21-7 had it not been for a pair of mistakes. I considered the possibility that Oklahoma may have been looking ahead to the Red River Rivalry, however, and it appears that was the case. Oklahoma led from start to finish versus Texas, albeit in a close game.

The primary reason the Sooners prevailed was wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who was spectacular. Lamb is currently the third receiver chosen in my 2020 NFL Mock Draft, but I imagine he’ll be moving up in Wednesday’s update!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I can’t believe I recommended Andy Dalton as a fantasy sleeper last week. What a dumb decision that was! I liked Dalton’s matchup against a Baltimore secondary missing three starters, and I thought that Cincinnati’s offensive line, while incompetent, wouldn’t have too much of an issue versus a non-existent Ravens pass rush. Things didn’t go according to plan, as Dalton was pressured heavily and had to luck into a cover.

The Jaguars pressure the quarterback better than the Ravens do. They’ll have an extreme advantage up front, especially if Cordy Glenn is out yet again. Third-string left tackle John Jerry, who should be playing guard, will have no chance against Yannick Ngakoue. The same goes for the offensive linemen tasked with blocking Calais Campbell and Josh Allen. It won’t be pretty.

The Bengals are also having trouble opening up running lanes for Joe Mixon. The Jaguars rank poorly versus the run, but this was the result of Christian McCaffrey’s long gains. Jacksonville should be better versus the rush, especially against Mixon. In fact, the only functional part of Cincinnati’s offense will once again be Auden Tate, who has been quite the surprise. I like Tate this week as long as Jalen Ramsey doesn’t return to action.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars don’t block particularly well either. They’re especially weak on the blind side, as Cam Robinson is having some major problems. Luckily for Gardner Minshew, the Bengals don’t place the same amount of pressure on the quarterback the Saints do.

Minshew didn’t have much of a chance versus the Saints for multiple reasons. One was poor protection. The other was Marshon Lattimore’s blanket coverage on D.J. Chark. Minshew couldn’t connect with his favorite receiver, so he looked like a sixth-round rookie quarterback as a result. Fortunately for Minshew, he has a good chance of improving in this contest, as the Bengals don’t have anyone who can erase Chark from the game like Lattimore did.

Of course, the Jaguars’ top weapon will once again be Leonard Fournette. I absolutely love Fournette this week, as he’ll have the luxury of going up against Cincinnati’s dreadful linebackers. The Bengals have the worst linebacking corps in the NFL, so Fournette will be able to run circles around them for big gains.

RECAP: This spread is a bit too rich for my blood. My numbers say Jacksonville -2 is the right line. The computer model agrees. I would’ve been fine taking the Jaguars at -3, but -3.5 is too expensive.

While the Jaguars are the better team, they’re not good enough to be favored by more than a field goal on the road against any team not named the Dolphins. Remember, the Bengals nearly beat Seattle and Buffalo earlier in the year, so an upset is possible. The most likely result of this game is Jacksonville winning by three, so taking the +3.5 seems like the correct move.

Given that the spread is off, and that the public is pounding the Jaguars, I might end up betting the Bengals for multiple units. If Cincinnati can get Glenn or A.J. Green back from injury, I’ll think about making this a fairly large wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t think I’ll be betting the Bengals. Their already-awful secondary will be down two cornerbacks and a safety. I’m still going to pick Cincinnati, but this game seems less appealing now.

SATURDAY NOTES: My God, I can’t believe how banged up the Bengals are. They were already down A.J. Green and three starting offensive linemen (Cordy Glenn, Jonah Williams, Clint Boling), and now they’ll be missing a fourth starter on the offensive line in John Miller and their backup left tackle, Andre Smith. They are down their top two cornerbacks. They are down their top two pass rushers. I’m switching my pick to the Jaguars, and I’m even betting on them. I just don’t know how the Bengals can compete with all of their injuries. UNFORTUNATELY, this spread rose from -4 to -4.5 when I was out of the house. I wanted to put three units on -4, but -4.5 is not as appealing. There’s no point to rushing in to bet -4.5, so I’ll be patient and hope for a -4 to reemerge.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It sucks that this spread has risen to -4.5, but I found a viable -4 at -114 on Bookmaker. It’s worth paying four cents on the dollar to get to four. I’ll mark it down as -115 here for simplicity’s sake.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -2.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -3.
Computer Model: Jaguars -3.
DVOA Spread: Jaguars -3.


The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
Tons of money on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 73% (14,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Jaguars are 41-75 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -4.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Jaguars 20, Bengals 13
Jaguars -4 -115 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$300
Under 44 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Jaguars 27, Bengals 17

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Los Angeles Rams (3-3) at Atlanta Falcons (1-5)
Line: Rams by 3. Total: 54.5.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I think I lost 716 IQ points listening to Bill Simmons’ podcast this week. He and Cousin Sal discussed Sean McVay being an overrated coach, and Jared Goff being a terrible quarterback. Simmons even went as far to compare McVay’s career to M. Night Shyamalan’s.

This was the sort of horrible analysis I’ve come to expect from the national media. The reason why the Rams, and Goff in particular, are struggling is because of the offensive line, yet that wasn’t mentioned at all on the podcast. I’ve been harping about Los Angeles’ offensive line since May. The team lost two starters up front to free agency, while long-time left tackle Andrew Whitworth is finally beginning to decline. He’s still the best blocker the Rams have, but he’s not performing on a Pro Bowl level anymore. In fact, if you look at the advanced metrics, the Rams currently have the worst starting offensive line in the NFL (not counting the Dolphins.)

We saw Goff get frazzled by teams that could pressure him last year when the Bears, Eagles and Patriots all befuddled him late in the year. The 49ers did the same thing last week. Conversely, the Falcons will not be able to do that because they have no pass rush. Their secondary is also an abomination. They made Marcus Mariota look unstoppable a few weeks ago, so Goff will have the ultimate bounce-back performance. He’ll torch the Falcons relentlessly, as no one on Atlanta can cover his three talented receivers.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons also have a horrible offensive line. Unlike the Rams, they attempted to fix their problems up front this past offseason, but they lost first-rounder Chris Lindstrom to injury, while their mainstays – Jake Matthews and Alex Mack – have regressed tremendously, which was completely unexpected.

Matt Ryan was able to torch the Cardinals last week, but I’m not sure he’ll have the same sort of success in this contest. The Rams have a great front, comprised of Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers and the emerging Dante Fowler, so they’ll be able to put lots of pressure on him. Ryan won’t have much time in the pocket, so he won’t be able to expose the Rams’ safeties, who have been playing very poorly this year.

Ryan will likely get things moving in garbage time, which has been a frequent occurrence for him this year. It will be too late by then, however. Ryan, as usual, will have to put his team on his back, as Devonta Freeman won’t find running lanes against the Rams’ talented defensive front.

RECAP: The Rams lost in Seattle due to a missed field goal at the very end. Had Greg Zuerlein connected, the Rams would be 4-2 right now, and there wouldn’t be a narrative about them losing three in a row. At 4-2, they’d certainly be favored by more than three points on the road against the dreadful Falcons. I imagine the line would be around -4 or higher. Coincidentally, -4 is exactly what the advance spread was.

This line moved just one point, but three and four are both key numbers, so that’s a big deal. I like the value we’re getting with the Rams, and the computer model is even more in favor of it, projecting Los Angeles -5 to be the correct number.

I’m going to bet a few units on the Rams. This is the ultimate get-right game for them. They’re so much better than the Falcons, who would be 0-6 right now if it weren’t for Nelson Agholor’s dropped touchdown in Week 2. It was a joke that Atlanta was favored in Arizona last week, and the oddsmakers still don’t appear to be pricing them correctly, perhaps because the public doesn’t understand how horrible they are.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: I’m going to lock this in for three units. This spread has moved from -3 +100 to -3 -105 in the wake of the Jalen Ramsey trade, and I think the juice and perhaps spread could rise. These teams are very far apart, so -3 -105 is looking like a bargain. You can currently get it at Bookmaker or BetUS.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Someone reminded me that this is a revenge game for the Rams, as the Falcons defeated them in Los Angeles two years ago in an opening-round playoff game. This spread is still -3 -105 for some reason, so I’m going to add a fourth unit.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jalen Ramsey and Todd Gurley are both suiting up for the Rams, so I imagine the spread has to move up soon.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is finally moving up, or at least the juice is (-120). The fact that this line hasn’t moved to -3.5 is worrying, but there’s a lot that signals that the Rams are the right side.


The Motivation. Edge: Rams.
The Falcons went into Los Angeles and upset the Rams in the playoffs two years ago. This is their first meeting since.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -4.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -4.
Computer Model: Rams -6.
DVOA Spread: Rams -3.


The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
The public was burned by the Falcons, so they’re trying to recoup their money by betting against Atlanta this time. However, the action isn’t as extreme as it initially looked to be.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 76% (25,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -3.5.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Rams 30, Falcons 20
Rams -3 -105 (4 Units) – BetUS/Bookmaker — Correct; +$400
Under 54 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 37, Falcons 10

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San Francisco 49ers (5-0) at Washington Redskins (1-5)
Line: 49ers by 10. Total: 39.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: My apologies if you’re a Bears fan, but the editing on this Cody Parkey’s missed field goal commercial is amazing (thanks, Luke T.):



I’m right there with you, Chicago fans. I bet your team at 100/1 odds to win the Super Bowl, only to see that idiot kicker get iced by Ron Rivera.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Despite what the Patriots’ fantasy defense has done this year, the 49ers have the best stop unit in the NFL. They’ve made every offense they’ve gone against this year look utterly pathetic. They embarrassed Jared Goff last week, limiting him to 78 passing yards, which even sparked two prominent sports voices to compare Sean McVay to M. Night Shyamalan. That’s how great San Francisco’s defense has been.

The 49ers shouldn’t have any sort of problem dismantling the Redskins’ offense. Washington’s offensive line is better with Brandon Scherff and Chase Roullier back on the field following their brief absences, yet the front has no chance of blocking Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead. Case Keenum will take tons of sacks unless he tosses helpless short passes, which might not even work well because Chris Thompson is banged up. Keenum won’t have time to go deep, and even if he does, the 49ers’ stellar secondary will smother Terry McLaurin.

Things will be even worse for Adrian Peterson. The future Hall of Famer eclipsed the century mark last week against the dreadful Dolphins, but he may not even get to double digits this week against the 49ers.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I liked the 49ers heading into the year because of their offensive line. However, they’re missing their top two tackles at the moment. Backup Daniel Brunskill performed well in relief of Mike McGlinchey last week, so if that continues to be the case, San Francisco will have a chance to block the Redskins’ edge rushers, including Ryan Kerrigan.

Jimmy Garoppolo will have success if he has time in the pocket, given that the Redskins will struggle to defend his weapons. Their secondary has some major problems, including Josh Norman, who has been terrible this season. Meanwhile, I don’t have much faith in the Redskin linebackers being able to cover, which obviously bodes well for George Kittle.

The Redskins can at least stop the run, so perhaps they’ll be able to force the 49ers into some punts. San Francisco used to rush the ball extremely effectively, but that was before it lost both tackles and stellar fullback Kyle Juszczyk. The Redskins have a talented defensive front, so containing Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman will be possible.

RECAP: I hate that this spread is double digits. I hate all of the money coming in on San Francisco. I hate that the 49ers are missing two offensive tackles. I hate that the 49ers might be looking ahead to battling the 4-2 Panthers after two big wins.

And yet, I’m still taking the 49ers. I just don’t see how the Redskins are going to score on San Francisco. They couldn’t even post more than 17 points against the Dolphins. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Redskins even fail to cross midfield prior to garbage time.

Also, consider that this crowd is likely to be comprised mostly of 49er fans. San Francisco supporters travel well – and also live on the East Coast – while Redskin fans don’t show up to games anymore. I suspect this crowd will be 70-percent 49er fans, which will be disheartening to the Redskins.

I’m not going to bet this game for all the reasons I stated above. Plus, we’ve seen Keenum cover a double-digit spread with a back-door touchdown already this year, and it could happen again.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some -9.5 lines have popped up. That’s not enough to change my opinion on this game. I like the 49ers, but not enough to bet them.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Redskins will be down Chris Thompson, which has been a big deal for them in the past. That won’t get me to bet on the 49ers, but I’m slightly more confident in them now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no interest in this game, though it’s worth noting that some of the top contestants in the Supercontest like the 49ers. I have a link for more details on the home page.


The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.
The 49ers are coming off two big wins, and after this game, they have to take on the 4-2 Panthers. However, this will be like a road game for the Redskins, as the majority of the fans will be rooting for the 49ers.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -10.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -9.5.
Computer Model: 49ers -12.
DVOA Spread: 49ers -10.


The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
Is anyone going to bet on Washington this week?

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 83% (24,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Redskins are 12-30 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: 49ers -10.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Light rain, 57 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 7 NFL Pick: 49ers 30, Redskins 14
49ers -10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 39 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 9, Redskins 0

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Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games
Chargers at Titans, Saints at Bears, Ravens at Seahawks, Eagles at Cowboys, Patriots at Jets




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games



NFL Picks - Dec. 11


2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11


NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9


2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29


Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4




SUB MENU






My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5
Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6
Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)