NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)

NFL Picks (2019): 68-43-1 (+$7,935)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 20, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games

Los Angeles Chargers (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (2-4)
Line: Titans by 2.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 4:05 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

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TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Marcus Mariota was benched in the second half of last week’s game. He was dreadful for the most part, but to be fair, it’s not like he had adequate pass protection. The Titans surrendered seven sacks, as Denver’s front overwhelmed their undermanned offensive line.

There’s some hope for the Titans in this game, regardless of who their quarterback is. I never thought I’d ever write this about Kevin Pamphile, but the Titans will be glad to have him back this week. Pamphile’s return will remove Nate Davis from the starting lineup, which is crucial because Davis is the worst offensive lineman in the NFL not playing for the Dolphins. He’s been an abomination, as an turnstile would be an upgrade over him. Meanwhile, left tackle Taylor Lewan, who apparently did nothing but eat Oreos and Cheetos during his four-game suspension, should continue to round into shape and perform better each week.

Better blocking will obviously help both Mariota and Derrick Henry. Mariota or Ryan Tannehill will have an easy time against the Chargers’ injury-ravaged secondary, so Mariota could replicate what he did against the Falcons a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Henry will pick up where James Conner and Benny Snell left off. He’ll trample the Chargers in a bounce-back game for him.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: While the Titans’ offensive line will improve, there’s no help coming for the Chargers, who continue to play without their left tackle and center. Their blocking has been absolutely putrid this year, which would explain why they’ve been blown out at home by two teams with combined records of 4-8.

The Titans should be able to put heavy heat on Philip Rivers, especially if Cameron Wake returns from injury. This will force Rivers into once again settling for short throws, which hasn’t worked very well this year. Hunter Henry’s presence will help, however, and I like his matchup against the Titans. The same goes for Keenan Allen versus Logan Ryan in the slot.

That said, it’s difficult to find anything else that will work for the Chargers. They won’t run the ball very well against a stout Tennessee front, and it’s not like Melvin Gordon has looked great following his holdout. Perhaps he ate Oreos and Cheetos with Lewan during their time off.

RECAP: Despite the ugly loss to the Broncos, things are pointing up for the Titans. They’re set to get an offensive lineman back, which will improve their blocking, and they could have Wake rushing the quarterback once more following his two-game absence.

Even better: They’ll be playing the Chargers this week. Much like the public’s incorrect reading of the Falcons, most bettors have yet to realize how terrible the Chargers are, perhaps because Rivers and Allen post pretty fantasy stats. Again, the Chargers have been blown out at home this year by the Broncos and Steelers, both of whom are 2-4, and their only cover this season has been against the Dolphins. Their one non-Miami win came in overtime versus the Colts, only because Adam Vinatieri couldn’t hit a kick to save his life. And yet, all of this, save for the Pittsburgh loss, came with center Mike Pouncey in the lineup.

Pouncey will continue to be out, and so the Titans look very appealing. They’re the better team, as I have this spread at Tennessee -4.5, meaning we’re getting the key numbers of three and four. The Chargers, meanwhile, are public dogs, which is something I love to bet against.

This is going to be a large wager. It’ll be for at least three units, though four or five is certainly possible if the injury report is favorable for the Titans.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some major news here, and I’m not referring to Ryan Tannehill being named the starter. Chargers left tackle Russell Okung is back at practice and has a chance to play in this game. I don’t know if he’s in great shape or not, but his presence will be a boost for the San Angeles offense. I’ll be paying extra attention to this injury report because Okung’s return would make me drop my unit count.

SATURDAY NOTES: A trio of injury concerns for the Titans: First, linebacker Jayon Brown is doubtful. Brown is their top coverage linebacker, so he’ll be missed. That said, the Titans still have Rashaan Evans and Wesley Woodyard, so all hope isn’t lost in that regard. Second, Delanie Walker is questionable after being downgraded in practice. Third, on the other side of the ball, the Chargers could have Russell Okung back. I don’t think I’ll be betting this game heavily, but I’ll know for sure on Sunday.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s some good news for the Chargers, in that Russell Okung won’t play this week. This unit count will be at least three as a result.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Not only is Okung out, but the Chargers will be without their top two defensive tackles. This should make running the ball very easy for the Titans, who should be able to win by a field goal or more. Unfortunately, this juice is high for the -2.5, thanks to sharp action on the host. The best juice I could find is -118 at Heritage. I’ll mark down -120 here for simplicity.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Chargers are a public dog.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -4.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -1.
Computer Model: Chargers -3.
DVOA Spread: Titans -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
The Chargers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 63% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Titans -2.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 79 degrees. Light wind.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Titans 20, Chargers 13
Titans -2.5 -120 (4 Units) – Heritage/Bovada — Correct; +$400
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 23, Chargers 20

Baltimore Ravens (4-2) at Seattle Seahawks (5-1)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson continues to amaze. He’s been utterly efficient this year, and teams haven’t had an answer for him. He’s done this despite a sub-par offensive line that lost two players to injury last week, as left tackle Duane Brown had to sit out. Despite Brown’s absence, Wilson still found a way to defeat Cleveland on the road.

I’d normally say that a team needs its left tackle back in the lineup to perform up to its potential, but that’s not the case in this matchup. The Ravens don’t rush the passer very well, given that they lost Za’Darius Smith and Terrell Suggs in free agency, so backup George Fant won’t have nearly as difficult of a matchup this week if he’s forced into starting. Call me crazy, but the likes of Tyus Bowser and Pernell McPhee don’t compare favorably to Myles Garrett.

With time in the pocket, Wilson should be able to dissect Baltimore’s secondary. The Ravens are missing three starting defensive backs. We saw Andy Dalton target inept cornerback Maurice Canady with some success last week, so I imagine Wilson will do much better in this regard. Meanwhile, Tyler Lockett has a terrific matchup in the slot. This is great news for the Seahawks, who may not be able to run the ball as well as they’d want to versus a Ravens front that is still stout versus the rush.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Seahawks aren’t great at rushing the quarterback either. They’re better than the Ravens in this regard because of Jadeveon Clowney, but he’s the only player up front who can consistently get to the quarterback. Ziggy Ansah, conversely, looks done. If he were a horse, he would’ve been turned into glue by now.

The question is if Lamar Jackson will be able to take advantage of this pass protection. He ran circles around the Bengals last week, but he made some errant throws against a secondary that can’t cover anyone. The Seahawks at least have Shaq Griffin, a terrific cornerback who will be able to lock down one side of the field. Jackson won’t be able to run as freely versus the Seahawks because they have competent linebackers, unlike the Bengals, so the young quarterback will be forced to deliver passes to Mark Andrews and the receivers consistently, which I’m not sure he’ll be able to do in non-garbage time, especially if Marquise Brown doesn’t return this week.

The strength of the Ravens’ offensive attack is the running game. This was on full display against the Bengals, as Mark Ingram picked up nice yardage when Jackson wasn’t sprinting for big gains. The Seahawks tend to defend the run better than the pass, though they just surrendered a big game to Nick Chubb, so I wouldn’t count out Baltimore running well.

RECAP: My pick for this game will hinge on the injury report. There are so many unknowns, ranging from Duane Brown, to Marquise Brown, to members of Baltimore’s secondary.

I’m going to pencil in the Ravens for zero units right now because it seems as though the most likely outcome of this game is Seattle winning by three, but this could definitely change drastically by the weekend. Check back or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has fallen from -4 to -3, thanks to sharp action on the Ravens. Depending on what the injury report looks like, I may entertain a decent-sized wager on the Ravens.

SATURDAY NOTES: It looks like the Seahawks will be missing Duane Brown, but D.J. Fluker could return. Meanwhile, Marquise Browm seems like he’ll be out for Baltimore. The Brown news is the most important thing; he’s questionable, but wasn’t able to practice all week. His absence will limit Seattle’s offense a bit. I still don’t know the unit count, as the injuries depend on how much I will be betting on Baltimore.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s still some major injury question marks concerning this game, so check back around 3:45 for my final thoughts and perhaps a changed unit count.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Seahawks will be missing Duane Brown, while the Ravens won’t have Marquise Brown. I’m going to remain on Baltimore for zero units.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -4.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -4.
Computer Model: Seahawks -2.
DVOA Spread: Seahawks -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 55% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Ravens are 4-11 ATS on the West Coast in franchise history.

Seahawks are 46-31 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 51 degrees. Light wind.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Ravens 26
Ravens +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 30, Seahawks 16

New Orleans Saints (5-1) at Chicago Bears (3-2)
Line: Bears by 4. Total: 37.5.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 12 continues. The Battle of Softhouse! Emmitt Snow Jr. runs into trouble when he and his friend look for his missing uncle.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Bank Robbers (Including Me).

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Teddy Bridgewater has been a nice story thus far, as he has yet to lose as a starter. However, let’s not get carried away here, as the Saints can’t be viewed as a top-three NFL team without Drew Brees. Bridgewater didn’t commit any turnovers last week, but he missed multiple receivers for touchdowns. The Saints would’ve scored way more points with Brees, which is something to keep in mind for tough, defensive battles like this one.

The Bears limited Kirk Cousins to six points in a home game three weeks ago, and they’re very capable of forcing Bridgewater into more poor throws. They have a great pass rush and a stellar secondary, though it helps Bridgewater that he’s very well protected. The Saints have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

I expect the Saints to win in the trenches versus the Bears. An underrated injury for Chicago has been to Akiem Hicks, who has been placed on injured reserve. This is huge, as the Bears seemed far worse versus the run with Hicks out of the lineup in their London loss to the Raiders. Josh Jacobs trampled them, so Alvin Kamara figures to have a good amount of success running the ball.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Hicks’ absence will be a huge deal, but the state of the Bears’ offensive line might be even more worrying. Chicago had plenty of success last year on this side of the ball on the back of its blocking unit, but the five protectors have not fared nearly as well this year. Kyle Long is injured, and his backup, Ted Larsen, has been terrible. The two tackles have been pedestrian as well, as Charles Leno and Bobby Massie have taken a big step backward this season. That has to be music to the ears of Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport.

Unless the Bears have drastically changed things during the bye, I don’t think they’ll protect well for Mitchell Trubisky, who is expected to be under center this week. Trubisky, as we’ve seen, can be a turnover machine if he begins throwing off his back foot. I imagine there will be lots of that once Trubisky realizes that he can’t target his top receiver. Allen Robinson will be smothered by Marshon Lattimore, who erased Amari Cooper, Mike Evans and D.J. Chark the past three weeks.

The Bears won’t be able to run well either unless the offensive line makes great strides compared to its pre-bye condition. The Saints have clamped down versus the rush this year, so I can’t see David Montgomery doing much.

RECAP: The Saints have a big edge in the matchup, given the state of Chicago’s offensive line. The Bears have been a big disappointment in that area this year. Long’s injury won’t improve things at right guard, but I think it’s worth considering that the bye week will allow Leno and Massie to improve their play. It’s quite possible Chicago’s offensive line will improve moving forward.

with that in mind, I’m going with the Bears. While the Saints have the edge in the matchup, Chicago gets the nod for motivation and Vegas. The Saints are a huge public dog, as nearly three-quarters of the betting action is on them. Everyone on the pre-game shows will be picking them to win outright even though the Bears are favored. However, the Bears still have a great defense, even without Hicks, and having extra time to prepare for this game could benefit them. That’s why I’m picking them, but I don’t think I’ll be betting on this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Saints signed Zach Zenner, which might be a sign that Alvin Kamara may not be able to play this Sunday. That would be huge, and it would give the Bears a big advantage. With that in mind, Chicago -3 -120 looks appealing for a small wager.

SATURDAY NOTES: Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook are both out, so the Saints will be down two of their offensive play-makers. However, this spread has jumped up to -4. I thought about switching to New Orleans, but I’ll stay with a zero-unit selection on the host.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread continues to rise, with -4.5 now available. At some point, the Saints have to look appealing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I thought about moving to the Saints, but I’ll remain zero on Chicago -4, which is available at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: Bears.

The Saints are huge public dogs.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -2.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.
Computer Model: Bears -6.
DVOA Spread: Bears -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
The Saints are a public dog.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 60% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -4.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 57 degrees. Light wind.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Bears 16, Saints 10
Bears -4 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 36, Bears 25

Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (3-3)
Line: Cowboys by 2.5. Total: 49.
Sunday, Oct. 20, 8:20 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: The public seems to be down on both teams, which is an example of recency bias. Both teams have endured injuries recently, but will be getting some of their key players back.

There are many such players to discuss on this side of the ball. Both of Dallas’ tackles were out against the Jets, so it wasn’t a surprise that the Cowboys couldn’t move the chains, especially when Amari Cooper left the game. I don’t have much confidence that Cooper will be ready to play this week, but it sounds as though both Tyron Smith and La’el Collins will be ready to take the field. This is huge for the Cowboys, as their running game and pass protection took a big hit without the two stellar lineman. Having all hands on deck will be crucial against the Eagles, who have one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL.

Cooper, on the other hand, will be missed if he’s out. Dak Prescott will still have Michael Gallup at his disposal, which should be good enough if the Eagles don’t get some of their injured cornerbacks back from injury. Kirk Cousins torched Philadelphia, which was predictable because Ronald Darby, Avonte Maddox and Jalen Mills, their top three corners, were all sidelined. Darby and Mills are practicing again, so they both could return soon. Their presence will drastically improve the Eagles’ porous pass defense.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles had injuries on this side of the ball earlier in the year. Both Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson missed a couple of games, and their replacements dropped what would’ve been game-winning receptions versus Atlanta and Detroit. Had Jeffery and Jackson not missed action, the Eagles would be 5-1 right now, making them very underrated because the public doesn’t take that into account when looking at their 3-3 record.

However, it’s unclear if Jackson will return this week. His presence would huge against a Dallas defense with problems at safety. Robby Anderson torched the Cowboys for a deep ball last week, and I have to imagine that Jackson, a better receiver than Anderson, would have a great chance to repeat this at least once with a superior quarterback throwing to him.

The Cowboys have also had trouble stopping the run, as evidenced by what we saw in their losses to the Saints and Packers. The Eagles split their touches between Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders, so it’s difficult to predict who will have a big game, but there’s a good chance at least one of them will.

RECAP: The Eagles and Cowboys are two suddenly underrated top-10 teams that have had some hard luck with recent injuries, but are ready to make big runs now that they are healthy. It’s a shame that they’re playing each other this week, though there will be great value with the loser of this contest in Week 8 and beyond.

There are still lots of injury question marks, so my selection will hinge on how the injury report shakes out later in the week. However, I’m currently leaning toward the Cowboys. It seems as though there’s a better chance that their tackles will return to action than Philadelphia’s cornerbacks. Also, the Eagles are a big-time public underdog. Nearly three-quarters of the betting action is on them. I imagine most people will expect them to prevail, yet the Cowboys are the ones that are favored. Again, you can make lots of money betting against public underdogs, so unless the action evens out, it’ll be difficult not to wager on the Cowboys for several units, especially if the injury report looks good for them.

I’m going to pencil in the Cowboys for now, but this is a selection that could drastically change as the week progresses. Check back, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The injury report for the Cowboys didn’t look promising Wednesday, but both tackles returned Thursday. I’m eager to see what the injury report looks like Friday evening.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams received good news per the injury report. For the Cowboys, all three of their questionable offensive linemen – Tyron Smith, La’el Collins and Zack Martin – are expected to play. Amari Cooper said he expects to be on the field as well. For the Eagles, they’ll be down Jason Peters and DeSean Jackson, but it looks like they’ll have two cornerbacks returning from injury (Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills.) This is disappointing, as I was hoping one team would be short-handed to open up a great betting opportunity. I still like the Cowboys, however, as we can go against a public dog in Philadelphia. I’m going to lock in -2.5 -120 at Bovada for three units before this spread rises to -3.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread has moved to -3 because all the Cowboys will likely be on the field. Congrats if you managed to bet the -2.5!

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Cowboys for three units. I bet them at -2.5 -120, but so did the sharps. This spread is now -3 everywhere, but you can get -3 -105 at BetUS. I’d wager three units on that number as well. Dallas is seemingly fully healthy right now for the first time in several weeks, while the Eagles are missing several starters.

The Motivation. Edge: Cowboys.

The Eagles are a huge public dog.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -1.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -2.5.
Computer Model: Cowboys -1.
DVOA Spread: Cowboys -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

The Eagles are a huge public dog.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 70% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Road Team has won 13 of the last 18 meetings.

The underdog is 88-58 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Eagles are 33-20 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Cowboys are 21-33 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Cowboys 26, Eagles 20
Cowboys -2.5 -120 (3 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$300
Under 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 37, Eagles 10

New England Patriots (6-0) at New York Jets (1-4)
Line: Patriots by 10. Total: 43.
Monday, Oct. 21, 8:15 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of New York, the biggest garbage dump in the world! Tonight, the New York Giants take on the New England Patriots, the cheating mother f**kers I plan to get revenge on. Last week I said I was going to tell on Herm and Charles Davis for contacting Ukraine, and now I’m going to do the same thing with the Patriots for beating my Eagles in the 2004 Super Bowl!

Emmitt: Benny, I do not understood what the Patriot have to do with ukulele. My grandfather Emmitt Smith Jr. IV use to play ukulele around the camp fire after a day of gettin’ debacled by work, and now I play the ukulele around the camp fire when my kid listen after I gettin’ debacled from work.

Reilly: Emmitt, I mean Ukraine, the country. Not ukulele, the musical instrument!

Tollefson: Kevin, it’s interesting that you brought up Ukraine. I have an offer for you. I went to Ukraine in the summer and kidnapped some young Ukranian girls. I can sell them for you at $5,000 a pop. If you buy five, I’ll give you the sixth one free.

Reilly: Tolly, how many times do I have to tell you? I can’t keep kidnapped women in my basement because if Mother would find out, she’d ground me and not give me macaroni and cheese for dinner.

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. I heard someone say macaroni and cheese. This is one of my favorite foods. Why? Because it’s a food, and it’s one of my favorites. Macaroni and cheese is real good. It’s real good because it has two things. The macaroni. And the cheese. If you put them together, you get something real good. And that’s macaroni and cheese. And that’s real good.

Reilly: Finally, something I can agree on with this Jason Witten idiot. Mother makes the best macaroni and cheese, right New Daddy?

Cutler: Meh, it’s OK.

Reilly: New Daddy, how dare you insult Mother’s cooking? I’d defend her honor if I weren’t so focused on destroying the Patriots with these telephone calls.

Fouts: And here’s what Kevin means by telephone calls. When someone calls you, they might be calling you via bird call, or via telegram, or via AIM message. But when you include telephone, you get a telephone call because you included the telephone, which indicates that there is a telephone call involved when someone says telephone call.

Wolfley: DAN, I NEVER HEARD OF TELEPHONES. WHAT IS THIS TELEPHONE YOU SPEAK OF? IS IT LIKE A FOUR-TOED URINAL WITH EYEBROWS FOR MOUTHS?

Reilly: Shut up, idiots. Time to make a call. Ring, ring. Hello, zis is Ukranian president Kevin R- I mean Kevinsky Reillyinsky.

Herm: I-

Reilly: Shut up, Herm! I’m calling Bill Belichick here! Whoops, I didn’t mean to say that! Coach Belichick, don’t hang up! Please, I swear, this is Ukraine!

Charles Davis: Kevin, it’s interesting that you’re discussing former republics of the USSR, Kevin. Let’s discuss other former republics of the USSR, Kevin. Let’s begin with Uzbekistan, Kevin. How about Turkmenistan, Kevin? What about Tajikstan, Kevin? What do you think about Moldova, Kevin? Let’s discuss Lithuania, Kevin. How about it, Kevin? Can you name another former USSR republic, Kevin?

Reilly: You talked about this last week, idiot! Ukraine! Ukraine! I learned my lesson from last week. The answer is Ukraine!

Charles Davis: That is correct, Kevin. Looks like you won 5,000 points, Kevin. You can use these 5,000 points the next time you go to Ukraine, Kevin, because they’re only valid in Ukraine, Kevin.

Reilly: WHAT!? F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! YOU KNOW MOTHER WON’T LET ME GO TO UKRAINE UNTIL I GRADUATE FROM HOME SCHOOL, CHARLES DAVIS! AND THAT’S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN AS LONG AS I KEEP FAILING CIVICS, CHARLES DAVIS, SO F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! We’ll be back after this!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It was nice to see the Jets look like a functional football team last week. This, of course, coincided with the return of Sam Darnold. Not of this was surprising, as I expected the Jets to go 10-6 this year. That was derailed when Darnold was diagnosed with mono, forcing New York to use Luke Falk, a quarterback who shouldn’t even be in the NFL.

The Jets are an actual threat with Darnold. However, this is a rough matchup. It’ll be tough for Darnold to get anything downfield, as his outside receivers will be smothered by New England’s excellent cornerbacks. Robby Anderson’s chances are especially slim, as he’ll be locked down by Stephon Gilmore, arguably the best cornerback in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Le’Veon Bell has a difficult task as well. Bill Belichick excels at erasing one aspect of an opposing offense, and I have to imagine that Belichick will key in on clamping down on the talented back.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots have a major problem that will need to be addressed at some point. They’re having issues blocking. Tom Brady took three sacks last week against a New York defense with no pass rush to speak of. He also was brought down far too often against the Redskins. Their offensive line is missing two starters – left tackle Isaiah Wynn, center David Andrews – which is a worry. It hasn’t resulted in losses yet, but the Patriots have played so many bad opponents that it hasn’t mattered.

The Jets’ defense may or may not be a bad opponent, depending on C.J. Mosley’s availability. Mosley is a fantastic linebacker, but he hasn’t played since the third quarter of the opener. There’s a chance he could return this week from his groin injury, but if he doesn’t, Brady won’t have to hold the ball very long because he’ll be able to pick apart the middle of the field.

Conversely, it might be difficult for the Patriots to do much if Mosley is on the field. The running game won’t be an option because of the Jets’ stellar front. Attacking the Jets’ cornerbacks – the weakness of the defense – would be an option if Brady had plenty of time in the pocket, but the Jets should be able to swarm him. Also, there’s a chance Josh Gordon won’t be available because of an injury he suffered on Thursday night.

RECAP: There’s a decent amount of action on the Patriots, who are favored by too many points. I made this spread New England -6. DVOA says -7 is the correct number. Either way, -10 is too high, especially if Mosley can return from injury.

Mosley’s presence will determine how many units I’m going to wager on the Jets. As of right now, it’s zero, but 10 is way too many points for a team I believed could go 10-6 before Darnold’s bout with mono. The Jets could be 3-2 at the very least right now if it wasn’t for Darnold’s mono. What would this line be if that were the case? I think it would be -6 or -7, as the two aforementioned projected spreads say this should be.

It’s always scary to go against Brady and Belichick. They are the kings of the front-door covering scores, as we saw last Thursday night. Plus, Belichick has had extra time to prepare for this game, which is terrifying.

On second thought, I’ve talked myself out of betting this game entirely, even if Mosley returns.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s still unclear if Mosley will play this week, though he says he will. His presence might entice me to bet a small sum on the Jets … maybe.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a chance the Jets could be missing two offensive linemen, which would nullify any sort of wager on them. I’m probably not going to bet on this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s some sharp action driving this line down, but I’m not sure if I’ll be betting the Jets like the pros are.

FINAL THOUGHTS: C.J. Mosley will play for the Jets, which is good news. However, every time I think about putting a unit on the Jets, I can’t help but remember that Bill Belichick has had extra time to prepare for this game. That’s enough to keep me off New York. However, I don’t want to bet the Patriots either because this spread is so high.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Patriots already demolished the Jets already.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -6.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Darnold).
Computer Model: Patriots -11.
DVOA Spread: Patriots -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Not as much action on the Patriots as we’re used to.

Percentage of money on New England: 62% (71,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 28 of the last 34 meetings.

Tom Brady is 241-73 as a starter (179-121 ATS).

Patriots are 59-42 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 17-21 ATS as road favorites since 2013.

Opening Line: Patriots -10.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 58 degrees. Light wind.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Patriots 23, Jets 17
Jets +10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 33, Jets 0

week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games
Chiefs at Broncos, Rams at Falcons, Dolphins at Bills, Jaguars at Bengals, Vikings at Lions, Raiders at Packers, Texans at Colts, Cardinals at Giants, 49ers at Redskins

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Lions +8.5, Chargers +8.5 (2 units, +100) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$200

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)