NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,415)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$510)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2018): 5-8 (-$1,445)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2018): 5-8-1 (-$735)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2018): 5-5-3 (+$950)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2018): 7-8 (+$215)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2018): 7-9 (-$630)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2018): 11-5 (+$1,090)
NFL Picks (2018): 112-107-10 (+$750)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.
Vegas betting action updated Dec. 16, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games
Los Angeles Chargers (10-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-2)
Line: Chiefs by 4. Total: 54.
Thursday, Dec 13, 8:20 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
WEEK 14 RECAP: I lost my December NFL Pick of the Month, but I thought I had a good week of handicapping the NFL. Despite the 8.8-unit loss, I finished 11-5, +$1,090, putting me into the black for the season once again (and hopefully for good.) Many of my predicted scores were close, and I was somehow 12-3-1 in totals. I was off on just a few games. Unfortunately, Atlanta +6 was one of them.
That said, I don’t think the Falcons were the wrong side. They outgained the Packers and averaged more yards per play, and this was not the result of garbage time. The Falcons led in both categories at halftime despite trailing 20-7. They crushed themselves with constant mistakes. It was the Murphy’s Law of football games for Atlanta. Anything that could’ve gone wrong went wrong. This includes Matt Ryan’s killer pick-six because the Falcons dropped a very similar potential pick-six from Aaron Rodgers later in the half. Imagine if those sequences were flipped! Then, there was the botched snap at the Green Bay 8-yard line on second down. And then there was the time where Matt Ryan fumbled even though no one hit him, as the ball just slipped out of his hand. That took the Falcons out of the red zone and on the fringe of field goal range, where Matt Bryant missed a field goal.
Ugh. I just watched that game a second time and don’t want to keep re-living it. What a disaster. Because I feel like we had the right side, and that result was such a disaster, I’m going to issue a mulligan on the December NFL Pick of the Month. If I absolutely love a game over the next three weeks, I’m going to mark it down for eight units.
My Week 15 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Also, please note that I am unsure of my Week 17 schedule because Christmas falls on a Tuesday this year. Week 17 might be a Wednesday picking week, depending on what my wife has planned. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs don’t exactly have the personnel they possessed a couple of weeks ago. They lost Kareem Hunt to the TMZ video and subsequent release. Sammy Watkins is injured. And now it’s unclear if Tyreek Hill will play in this game. It sounds like he will, but he may not be 100 percent because of his bum heel.
That said, the Chiefs will be able to move the chains aerially. Mahomes still has Travis Kelce as a target, and Kelce should perform well in this matchup against a banged-up linebacking corps. Also, Kelvin Benjamin should suit up this week. Benjamin was a total bust in Buffalo, but he’s still a talented, former first-round pick, and he should give more effort in a stronger locker room with a more-respected quarterback.
The Chiefs will be able to run the ball effectively as well. The Chargers used to be better versus ground attacks, but they’ve suffered injuries to defensive tackles and linebackers that have made them worse in that regard. Spencer Ware may not be a great replacement for Hunt in the passing game, but Ware can definitely be potent on the ground.
SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: While Hunt is gone, Watkins is out and Hill may be unavailable, the Chiefs might get a boost defensively with Eric Berry potentially back this week. Berry, when completely healthy, is one of the top safeties in the NFL. It’s unclear how effective Berry will be in his potential debut, but if he’s eventually 80 percent of what he once was, that’ll be a huge boon for a Kansas City defense that has been shredded all year.
Berry’s presence will certainly help against the Chargers, who can obviously air it out. That said, the Chiefs are 13th in pass defense DVOA, as they’ve had better cornerback play than expected. They can also put heat on the quarterback. Everyone knows about Justin Houston, but defensive end Chris Jones has been stellar this year. He has a huge matchup edge in the trenches.
The Chiefs are far weaker against the run than the pass, so they’ll be hoping that Melvin Gordon sits out again. It sounds like Gordon could return, but if not, the Chargers will just be down to Justin Jackson, as Austin Ekeler is expected to miss this game.
RECAP: If the Chiefs had Hill healthy and Watkins available, and they weren’t completely exhausted, I’d pick them to cover the -3.5. Unfortunately, none of that is the case. Hill probably won’t be 100 percent, Watkins is out, and the Chiefs are coming off a grueling overtime victory against a hard-hitting Baltimore squad. Teams off overtime affairs have a horrible track record of covering on Thursday night. How bad is it? Try 6-26 against the spread, dating back to 1989!
That said, I’m not betting this game. Thursday night games tend to favor the better team, and that would be Kansas City. I also think the most likely result of this game is the Chiefs winning by three, so +3.5 would be cutting it way too close. I’m on the Chargers, but for no units.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Tyreek Hill and Eric Berry will definitely play. It appears as though Spencer Ware is out. Melvin Gordon is a true question mark, though Adam Schefter said it would be a stretch for him to play. That gives the Chiefs the edge, but not a big enough one to overcome fatigue from their hard-hitting overtime game.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Some late sharp action has come in on the Chiefs. Thie spread has risen to -4 in almost every book. I came close to putting a unit on the Chargers at +4, but Thursday night games have proven to be extremely unpredictable unless horrible teams are involved, so I’ll stay off this one. Enjoy what should be a great game!
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: None.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -6.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.
Computer Model: Chiefs -4.
DVOA Spread: Chiefs -6.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Chiefs 30, Chargers 27
Chargers +4 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 54 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 29, Chiefs 28
Houston Texans (9-4) at New York Jets (4-9)
Line: Texans by 7. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -2.5.
Saturday, Dec 15, 4:30 PM
The Game. Edge: Texans.
HOUSTON OFFENSE: The ESPN analysts during a recent Monday night telecast discussed how important it is for the Texans to establish the run. Houston can’t pass protect at all – the team has the worst offensive line in the NFL – so keeping the defense honest will prevent the opponent from swarming Deshaun Watson in the pocket as much as usual.
The Jets struggle versus the run, ranking 22nd in ground defense DVOA, which obviously bodes extremely well for the Texans. Lamar Miller couldn’t get going last week versus a better Indianapolis ground defense, but he’ll rebound against New York. This will open up better opportunities for Watson, who won’t see as much heat. Of course, that won’t matter very much if Watson holds on to the ball forever and takes coverage sacks as a result, which happens way too frequently.
While the Jets can’t stop the run, they’re half-decent against aerial attacks, thanks to strong play from the cornerbacks and safety Jamal Adams. That said, the Jets haven’t battled a stellar receiver like DeAndre Hopkins since taking on the Vikings back in Week 7. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs combined for 17 catches for 143 yards and a touchdown in that game, which featured unfavorable weather conditions.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: Sam Darnold had his ups and downs last week. He made some quality throws, including a clutch one to tie the game in the fourth quarter. However, he had a miserable interception and another potential pick that was dropped. Such inconsistency is expected from a rookie, especially one who doesn’t have much talent around him.
That said, I could see Robby Anderson having a big game. We just saw T.Y. Hilton torch the Texans, who have trouble with deep speed receivers. Anderson has a positive outlook, though it’ll depend on whether or not Darnold has much time in the pocket. It’ll be difficult to keep J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney from pressuring Darnold often. The Colts were able to shield Andrew Luck effectively last week, but Indianapolis has one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. The Jets do not, though their front isn’t horrible either.
New York also won’t be able to run the ball effectively either. The Texans are terrific at stopping ground attacks, and there’s even question on whether or not Isaiah Crowell will be able to suit up. I don’t think there’s much of a downgrade to Elijah McGuire, but regardless, Houston won’t be giving up very much on the ground.
RECAP: This spread seems like it’s way too high. I made this Houston -2.5, but I looked at other metrics to confirm. The Texans should be -4.5 according to last week’s DVOA numbers (and it might be -4 now based on what happened in Week 13.) Meanwhile, a computer model I subscribe to made this -5. All three projected spreads are shy of -6, which is a key number.
If you’re still not convinced this line is high, let me ask you this: How many times have the Texans won by more than a field goal on the road this year? The answer would be one. They were blown out at New England. They lost at Tennessee with Blaine Gabbert starting. They beat the Colts by three. They won at Denver by two. They also beat the Redskins by two, even though Colt McCoy played half the game. The lone exception was 13-point victory at Jacksonville, a game in which Blake Bortles had some costly fumbles.
Perhaps Darnold fumbles the game away as well, but the Jets are a highly competitive team, and they’ve been much better since the bye. They’ve kept games against the Patriots and Titans within reach, so they should be able to do the same against the Texans and their poor offensive line. I’m on New York for two units.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have some concern about a rookie quarterback going up against Romeo Crennel’s defense, so I’m going to drop this to one unit. However, this spread still seems like it’s too high, especially now that it’s risen to +7 -120 at 5Dimes.
SATURDAY NOTES: This spread is now down to +7 -110 at TopBet, which I’ll lock in now. It’ll only before a unit, as I’m worried about Sam Darnold going up against Romeo Crennel, despite the egregiously high number.
FINAL THOUGHTS: You can still get +7 -110 at TopBet. Some other books like Bovada have +7 -115 available, which is worth paying for. Again, I like the Jets for a very small play.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
No surprise that the public is on the Texans.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Texans 26, Jets 23
Jets +7 (1 Unit) – TopBet — Push; $0
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 29, Jets 22
Cleveland Browns (5-7-1) at Denver Broncos (6-7)
Line: Broncos by 2.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -3.
Saturday, Dec 15, 8:20 PM
The Game. Edge: Broncos.
VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot.
The highest-bet sides were 43-40-4 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…
Here were the teams getting the most bets last week:
Vegas got slaughtered in Weeks 8 and 9. They finally had their revenge in Week 13, as only two of the six highly bet teams covered. The house won in Week 14 as well, as only two of the five highly bet teams covered.
The overall record of heavily bet teams is now 32-37-3. Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:
CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The last time Baker Mayfield went on the road and played a strong defense, he threw three interceptions in a blowout loss to the Texans. Mayfield will be tasked with defeating yet another highly ranked stop unit, but the result might be different this time.
The Broncos’ defense is not the same dominant group we saw a few weeks ago. Losing cornerback Chris Harris, one of the better players at his position in the NFL, has been incredibly damaging. The Broncos couldn’t even stop Nick Mullens last week. Things could improve, however. Denver lost cornerback Isaac Yiadom during the San Francisco game, but he’s just day to day. Meanwhile, Tramaine Brock, a decent corner who has missed the past couple of games, will practice Tuesday, so he might return. Mayfield will also feel some pressure from Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, but he at least should have some open receivers against the Harris-less secondary. He’ll also be able to utilize David Njoku quite heavily, as the Broncos are epically awful against tight ends.
One facet of the Browns’ scoring unit that won’t work is the running game. Nick Chubb has been excellent since taking over for the departed Carlos Hyde, but the Broncos have one of the best ground defenses in the NFL. That element of Denver’s defense hasn’t taken a hit. Being in long-yardage situations could hurt Mayfield, especially against Denver’s pass rush.
DENVER OFFENSE: While Mayfield should have an edge against the Broncos’ injury-ravaged secondary, Denver has the greatest advantage in this contest. That would be Phillip Lindsay’s matchup against the Browns.
Lindsay has been stellar this season, though not so much last week, as he was stymied by a middling San Francisco defensive front. Lindsay shouldn’t have such issues against the Browns, who are a horrible 26th in run defense DVOA. They’ve been gashed by everyone this season, and this game should not be any different, as Lindsay will continue his excellent rookie campaign.
Case Keenum, on the other hand, won’t play very well, The Browns have an elite pass defense, featuring Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Denzel Ward. It seems like Ward will be locked in on Courtland Sutton, meaning that Keenum will have to throw to DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick, who were his fourth and fifth receivers to start the season.
RECAP: The spread movement on this game is ridiculous. The Westgate advance line was Denver -6.5, yet it’s down to -3. That’s a 3.5-point movement because on two games: The Broncos’ loss at San Francisco, and Cleveland’s win over Carolina. The Browns’ victory was nice, but they were battling an injured quarterback at home. Meanwhile, the Broncos play much better as hosts, and this will prove to be a very difficult environment for a rookie, even if the defense has taken a hit in the wake of Harris’ injury.
Speaking of injuries, the Broncos won’t have Harris or Emmanuel Sanders, but it seems as though some reinforcements will return to action, as Brock, Yiadom and Brandon Marshall have a chance to play in this must-win game. Thus, Denver is undervalued, though we already established that, based on what the spread is.
I like the Broncos for a few units. The injury report is worth monitoring, but I imagine that I’ll be on Denver for about three units. I love the value we’re getting, and I’m also excited about the matchup edge with Phillip Lindsay taking on Cleveland’s poor run defense. Meanwhile, it’s extremely difficult to play in Mile High. Patrick Mahomes barely won there, and I don’t think Mayfield, with a worse supporting cast, will be as fortunate.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Denzel Ward has been ruled out, which obviously hurts Cleveland’s pass defense. Meanwhile, Courtland Sutton and Derek Wolfe have been cleared to play for Denver. Yet, despite all this, sharp action on Cleveland has taken this spread down to -2.5! I don’t get it, but I still like the Broncos for three units.
SATURDAY NOTES: I’m still high on the Broncos, as this spread is way too much of an overreaction to last week’s results. Denver’s injury concerns aren’t as dire as they were last year, as some reinforcements will be returning. Despite this, there’s a ton of sharp action on the Browns, dropping this line down to -1.5.
FINAL THOUGHTS: It sucks to not win money because of an idiot kicker. Anyway, as mentioned earlier today, the sharps are on the Browns. I’m not sure why. I’ve heard the explanation that the Broncos could be flat because they have a slim chance to make the playoffs, but I’m not sure how legit that is. If they win, and all the other 7-6 teams lose – which is possible – they’ll be tied for the sixth seed. I still like Denver for three units, especially at this reduced spread. The best thing to do is to sell a point to get to +100 juice (5Dimes). Broncos -2 is not a key number, so it’s better to sell the point.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Broncos 26, Browns 20
Broncos -2.5 +100 (3 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$300
Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Browns 17, Broncos 16
Miami Dolphins (7-6) at Minnesota Vikings (6-6-1)
Line: Vikings by 7.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -4.
Sunday, Dec 16, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Vikings.
HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Unfortunately, I didn’t get anything for my incorrect Falcons pick, except for a “thanks for the pick.” Here’s something from the NFL Power Rankings:
I really don’t understand what’s wrong with this. Like, really. Hugging Brady’s nuts is a great time.
Here’s stuff from the NFL Overrated and Underrated page:
I imagine I won’t have any fart-sniffers in Los Angeles telling me that I’m wrong about their Rams after that embarrassing showing in Chicago.
Here’s one more:
I didn’t realize I was getting hate for thinking the Packers were underrated. Who knew?
Here’s a real e-mail I received from someone who seems clueless:
I’m hoping this person was just sending that as a joke because it was the most nonsensical e-mail I’ve ever received. I was called a con man for displaying that I’m up $750 rather than $1,090 – I’ve never counted teasers at the top, but maybe I should starting next year – and then he gives out wrong information even though I have a nifty betting trends section.
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: One of the many reasons I bet the Vikings to not make the playoffs at +260 back in July was because I didn’t trust their offensive line. Surely enough, Kirk Cousins was swarmed heavily Monday night. And if things weren’t bad enough, Minnesota lost its right tackle, Brian O’Neill, to injury. This definitely does not bode well for this matchup, as the Vikings will have to deal with some potent edge rushers in Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn.
Cousins will be under duress once again, so he could continue to struggle. Cousins has been a big disappointment as Minnesota’s $84 million man – how smart do Bruce Allen and the Redskins look for not overpaying him right now? – and he figures to have a tough matchup in this contest if cornerback Xavien Howard can return from injury. That, however, is a big question mark. Howard missed last week’s game because of a knee scope, and Adam Gase told the media that he didn’t want to rush him back. Howard’s availability would be huge because he’d be able to limit Stefon Diggs, while Minkah Fitzpatrick would focus on Adam Thielen. Being able to limit both of Minnesota’s receivers would give the Dolphins a big edge in this game.
Howard, however, may not play, and that changes everything. It also hurts the Dolphins that they are very weak against the run, so Dalvin Cook should break out of his funk and threaten to eclipse the century mark for the first time all season.
MIAMI OFFENSE: Howard isn’t the Dolphins’ primary injury concern. That would be Ryan Tannehill, who is dealing with an ankle injury. The constantly hurt Tannehill missed a small portion of last week’s victory over New England in the second quarter. He returned to action, but wasn’t the same after that. It sounds like Tannehill will play, but he may not be 100 percent.
This has to be music to Minnesota’s ears, as the Vikings have some liabilities in the secondary. The Vikings were missing two of their top three cornerbacks against the Seahawks, and that could once again be the case in this contest. A healthy Tannehill would be able to take advantage of this, but the Dolphin quarterback figures to be limited.
Meanwhile, the Vikings are stellar at stopping the run, ranking ninth in ground defense DVOA. The best thing the Dolphins do offensively is pound the ball, so they won’t have that option in this matchup.
RECAP: If Tannehill and Howard were completely healthy, I’d have a big play going on the Dolphins. Unfortunately, that doesn’t appear to be the case. Unless something changes, Howard probably won’t play. Tannehill, meanwhile, likely won’t be 100 percent.
With that in mind, I’m shifting my focus to the Vikings. I’m not going to bet them because I feel as though they’re favored by too many points, but Minnesota’s pass rush will feast on Tannehill if he can’t move around. Meanwhile, I like that the Vikings can shut down the best aspect of Miami’s offense.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Xavien Howard missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, while Ryan Tannehill has been limited, so it’ll be interesting to see how things shake out by Friday. I wish the Dolphins were healthier so I could bet them in this game, especially now that some +7.5 lines have appeared.
SATURDAY NOTES: Ryan Tannehill is no longer on the injury report, but that doesn’t mean that he’s 100 percent. Meanwhile, Xavien Howard is out, which will make things difficult for the Dolphins as far as defending Minnesota’s receivers is concerned. I wanted to bet the Dolphins, but I won’t do that with Howard out.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Xavien Howard is officially inactive, which means I’m not going to be betting the Dolphins despite the inflated line. It’ll be tough for Miami to stop the Vikings’ passing attack without Howard.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Dolphins 17
Vikings -7.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Vikings 41, Dolphins 17
Oakland Raiders (3-10) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -3.5.
Sunday, Dec 16, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: None.
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OAKLAND OFFENSE: Save for an unforced fumble in the red zone, Derek Carr had a strong showing against the Steelers, leading his team on two fourth-quarter scoring drives to seal the victory. He was 25-of-34 for 322 yards and two touchdowns against Pittsburgh despite his top receivers being the decrepit Jordy Nelson and inexperienced Marcell Ateman.
This, however, was predictable. The Steelers have trouble against aerial attacks, and Carr is extremely well coached, so he can take advantage of very favorable matchups. This is another one, as the Bengals have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Their secondary is in shambles, so Carr, at least on paper, should be able to take advantage of these liabilities.
The Bengals also struggle against the run, at least when Vontaze Burfict is out of the lineup. Burfict missed last week’s game, but he might be able to return this Sunday to help stop Doug Martin and Jalen Richard.
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: We saw a miracle last week in the NFL, and I’m not talking about what happened in Miami. The miracle was Jeff Driskel not turning the ball over against the Chargers. He played a clean game, which was astonishing to see. I wouldn’t expect this to happen very often, as Driskel has accuracy concerns and a low football IQ.
That said, this is a very favorable matchup for Driskel. The Raiders struggle to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, while their linebackers aren’t very good in coverage. They struggle against pass-catching running backs and tight ends, so Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard could have success as receivers out of the backfield. Oakland defends top receivers well because of Gareon Conley, but the Bengals don’t really have a top receiver, thanks to A.J. Green’s injury.
Speaking of Mixon, he figures to have a huge performance. The only team worse than the Raiders as far as run defense DVOA is concerned is Kansas City. The Steelers couldn’t take advantage of his massive liability because James Conner was out, but Mixon will be able to do so.
RECAP: These teams seem to be evenly matched on paper, but the Bengals have a big edge in this contest. That would be motivation. The Raiders are coming off their Super Bowl victory against the Steelers. They put everything they had into that game, and they were celebrating wildly following the victory. Jon Gruden was even running around and high-fiving the fans!
Teams that win in this sort of fashion often struggle mightily the following week. Can you see the Raiders showing up to play in this cold-weather, early-start game across the country? I don’t think so. I imagine we might see the same sort of effort from the Raiders that we witnessed in their blowout loss to the 49ers on Thursday Night Football back in Week 9, when they didn’t think they’d have to try very hard against Nick Mullens.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are playing hard for Marvin Lewis. They’re hungry for a win, and I think they’ll cover this spread, which seems like it’s too short. The advance line was -4.5, so we’re getting 1.5 points of value through two key numbers. That sounds like a sweet deal to me.
Unfortunately, the sweetness turns to rot very quickly when I think about the prospect of betting on Driskel heavily. With that in mind, I’m going to limit this to two units. I would not wager on a horrible quarterback like Driskel under normal circumstances, but I’m expecting the Raiders to be a complete no-show this week.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread fell to -2.5 on Wednesday, but sharp action bet it back up to -3, and even -3 -115 now. I’m still wary of betting heavily on Jeff Driskel, but I’ll be shocked if the Raiders show up.
SATURDAY NOTES: Good news for the Bengals: Vontaze Burfict is out, but they could get Dre Kirkpatrick and Cordy Glenn back from injury. Bad news for the Raiders: Both starting guards, Kelechi Osemele and Gabe Jackson, could both be out after not practicing at all this week. If they’re both out, that means the Raiders won’t have three of their five starting blockers, which is a big problem. If they’re announced as out Sunday morning, I may put a third unit on Cincinnati.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Gabe Jackson and Kelechi Osemele are both out for the Raiders, meaning their offensive line is in shambles. This team will be flat in an early start against a Cincinnati team that has gotten some reinforcements back. The Bengals are playing hard, and so I think it’s worth adding a third unit on them. The best line is Bengals -3 -115 at 5Dimes.
The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
There’s no way the Raiders put forth their “A” effort (or even their “C” effort) after winning their Super Bowl.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Raiders 21
Bengals -3 -115 (3 Units) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$300
Over 46 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Bengals 30, Raiders 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-8) at Baltimore Ravens (7-6)
Line: Ravens by 9. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -10.5.
Sunday, Dec 16, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Ravens.
I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.
Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:
1. I was asked for my thoughts on the Kareem Hunt situation. I discussed it here in our Week 14 picks video:
In short, I wouldn’t have released Hunt. The Chiefs have already made it clear that they’re willing to take on players with such issues, as Tyreek Hill did the same thing prior to being drafted. If Kansas City really wants to show that it cares about violence against women, cutting Hunt would be the worst thing the team could do because Hunt will just continue this sort of behavior if left on his own. The Chiefs could potentially fix the problem by putting Hunt through counseling and making him devote time to helping victims of abuse so that he never does something like this again. That’s a legitimate strategy for fixing the problem; not just casting Hunt aside. In fact, if I were running a team, I’d sign Hunt right now and then try to fix him.
2. On a lighter and more confusing note, there was something interesting that was said during the Thursday night telecast. Mike Pereira told monotone Joe Buck that the NFL has ordered the officials to call more holding penalties.
Yes, you read that right. The NFL wants more holding penalties.
I don’t understand. That would be like a politician saying, “We need more kids who are orphans,” or “We need more people to have their houses burned down in wildfires.” Why would anyone suggest something so stupid? No one likes holding penalties. There’s nothing more frustrating than seeing a great play negated by a shady holding penalty.
Speaking of which, maybe the “shady” part of it is what it’s all about. Holding penalties are the great equalizers for fixed games. If you’re an official, the NFL version of Tim Donaghy, and you want to fix a game, you’re going to call several holds on one team. No one will question it because the TV replay never shows what happened. And you’ll always have morons saying, “Hurr durr your and idiit for thinking games are fixed” even though NBA games were proven to be fixed in the past. In fact, I think this holding penalty decision could be a sign that Roger Goodell is in cohoots with Vegas.
Yeah, yeah, maybe I’m just being a conspiracy theorist. Or, maybe I’m on to something. In the Colts-Jaguars game a couple of weeks ago, a big pass play from Andrew Luck was negated by a hold. CBS never showed a replay, so I had to rewind the play on Game Pass a dozen times to see where the hold came from. It was flagged on the center, who was blocking a guy who slipped. It was the worst penalty ever, yet no one on the broadcasting crew criticized it or discussed it. It’s crap like that we’re going to see more of, and that sucks.
3. Speaking of stupid things, we had a crisis in a fantasy football league I’ve been in since 2007. My league commissioner, Drew, called me five times while I was at the gym. I called him back when I was done working out, and he told me what happened…
Big Head, the fifth seed in our playoffs, quit the league. Why? He lost James Conner and Matt Breida to injury, so he tried to pick up someone on the waiver wire. He put in requests for Jaylen Samuels and Jeff Wilson Jr. Someone with a worse record claimed Samuels. Meanwhile, I got Wilson even though I’m the No. 1 seed. How is this possible? Well, Big Head told Drew that he submitted Samuels, Wilson and the Lions defense, so Drew asked him if he was sure he put them in that order. Big Head said he didn’t, so Drew called ESPN technical support and was on hold for 15 minutes. ESPN eventually told him that they couldn’t help determine what the order was. Thus, ESPN wasn’t helpful. No surprise there.
Drew told Big Head it would be unfair to take a player off my team, since that would give him both his second and third waiver requests. Big Head, as a result, quit the league. He released every single player on his team.
That’s right. A fantasy owner who made the playoffs quit because of Jeff Wilson Jr. Unreal.
I know it must suck to lose a great player like Conner to an injury, but for f**k’s sake, don’t be a f***ing baby. Big Head could have still salvaged a playoff run. Conner could be back in Week 15, so Big Head could have found another running back to start. I’m looking at his roster right now, and he has Leonard Fournette, Justin Jackson and T.J. Yeldon as healthy running backs. Fournette and Jackson sounds fine to me (even though Fournette did nothing Thursday night.)
It was so stupid of Big Head to quit the league, but I guess I’m not surprised. He was kind of annoying at the draft, constantly complaining about the rules and Drew’s choice of pizza, even thoguh I thought it was great. Big Head also made crappy picks, as he was one of the few people still using a fantasy magazine. His fantasy mag looked like it was from 1996. That would explain some of his crappy picks, like Chris Hogan in Round 6, the Eagles defense in Round 9, and oh, STEPHEN GOSTKOWSKI IN ROUND F***ING 8!!!!
In a sense, I’m sad that Big Head quit the league. I love having morons around who will draft kickers in the eighth round. I’m 11-2 in this league entering the semi-finals, and I have to credit Big Head’s stupidity as a reason for that.
Goodbye, Big Head. You’ll be missed. But only because you suck at fantasy.
TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: This seems like it’s very easy to analyze. The Buccaneers only do one thing well offensively, which is the quarterback throwing downfield strikes to the talented receivers. However, the Ravens are fifth in pass defense DVOA. Baltimore will be able to take away the one thing Tampa does well on this side of the ball, so I can’t see the Buccaneers scoring very much.
Tampa posted 14 points on the scoreboard against the Saints, who are far worse against the pass. The Buccaneers were doing well early on, but things fell apart when Jameis Winston and center Ryan Jensen engaged in a shouting match on the sideline. A quarterback should never berate his offensive linemen, as they’re the ones charged with keeping him safe. Winston is a bozo who doesn’t understand this. As a result, he was sacked frequently.
The Ravens are capable of putting heavy pressure on the quarterback – as witnessed when they racked up 11 sacks against Marcus Mariota earlier this year – so their sack total could be high once again. Winston is not protected well, and his best receivers will be smothered. The Ravens shut down Julio Jones a couple of weeks ago, so they won’t have a problem limiting Mike Evans and company.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens also do one thing well offensively with Lamar Jackson, and that’s running the ball. They’ve become an elite ground offense with Jackson at the helm, as Gus Edwards seems to approach 100 rushing yards each week.
Unlike Baltimore, the Buccaneers won’t be able to stop their opponent’s one great element this week. They are 30th in run defense DVOA, so they won’t stand a chance against Jackson and Edwards.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers can’t stop the pass either. I don’t expect Jackson to throw very often, but he’ll be able to connect on a deep throw or two to his talented receivers. I don’t think John Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead will have much trouble getting open against Tampa’s awful secondary.
RECAP: The Ravens are going to be a big play for me this week. This spread should be double digits. Baltimore has dumpster fired every single one-dimensional offense it has played this year. Just look at the results:
Week 1, vs. Bills: Win, 47-3
Week 3, vs. Broncos: Win, 27-14
Week 6, at Titans: Win, 21-0
Week 12, vs. Raiders: Win, 34-17
Week 13, at Falcons: Win, 26-16
Those are all double-digit victories, and I expect this one to follow that trend. Winston is going to have an incredibly difficult time throwing the ball, and this could be the four-interception game that we’ve been waiting for since he was re-inserted into the lineup.
As long as this line remains under -10, I’ll be on the Ravens for four units.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Baltimore cornerback Marlon Humphrey hasn’t practiced yet this week, which is slightly troubling. However, I still like the Ravens, especially at the -7 -120 line available at Bookmaker.
SATURDAY NOTES: Marlon Humphrey practiced Friday, which is good news. I have no other reservations about betting Baltimore heavily. I’m holding out hope that a reasonable -7 appears. The -7 -120 at Bookmaker I spoke of is now -7 -126.
FINAL THOUGHTS: All of the Raven defensive backs who were questionable heading into this game are active, which is great news. I’m still on the Ravens for four units, but unfortunately, the sharps are as well. The best line I see now is -9 +100 at BetUS.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Ravens 34, Buccaneers 17
Ravens -9 +100 (4 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$400
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 20, Buccaneers 12
Dallas Cowboys (8-5) at Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -3.5.
Sunday, Dec 16, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: .
As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.
Random College Football Notes:
1. Congratulations to, umm, uhh, wait a second… who won the Heisman? Let me look it up. Oh, Kyler Murray. Oh, cool. Congrats, umm, wait I forgot who won the Heisman already. Fortunately, I can look back at a previous sentence rather than Google searching it again.
Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray won the Heisman. Great. Congrats, umm… who was it again?
If you couldn’t tell, I don’t really care who won the Heisman. The award is bogus. Alabama’s Quinnen Williams should’ve won it this year for dominating in the trenches against LSU and Georgia, yet he wasn’t even a finalist. Meanwhile, Murray torched horrible Big XII defenses all year that can’t tackle. What a joke.
The Heisman has become so irrelevant. I don’t think I can name any of the past five winners besides Lamar Jackson, and that’s only because I recently became surprised to learn that Jackson won the Heisman. I imagine that I won’t even know that umm… what’s-his-name won it in 2018 in a few months.
2. Weeks ago, I posted about digital down markers. I saw one in an early-season game, but thought I may have been imagining things. However, a recent Alabama game had a digital down marker. I had to take a picture of it to prove to all of you that I’m not crazy!
Ignore the hot cheerleaders at the bottom. Look at the giant “2” on the left side of the picture. There it is. The digital down marker.
I told you that this thing existed, and none of you believed me! None of you!
But really though, if football finally developed the technology to have digital down markers, why do most games still feature non-digital down markers? Are they too expensive? Is this still an experiment? Has the FDA not approved them for all states? I really want to know why we’re still living in the stone ages with non-digital down markers in most games!
3. This might just be a pet peeve of mine, but I can’t stand it when football announcers – particularly those in college football – refer to fast-paced offenses as “NASCAR tempo.” I heard this twice on a recent Saturday, and I nearly threw my laptop at the TV.
What the hell does that mean, anyway? Yes, the cars drive fast, but I don’t think NASCAR tempo can be described the same way. NASCAR is f***ing boring as hell. It’s just cars driving around in a circle. If you wanted to see that, just go to the local highway, park a lawn chair on the side of the road, and just observe. If that doesn’t sound entertaining, then that’s NASCAR in a nutshell. NASCAR tempo is slow and stupid. Stop describing fast offenses that way!
DALLAS OFFENSE: Amari Cooper has made the Cowboys better, no doubt, but the entire situation feels like a house of cards. The Raiders traded Cooper away because he constantly lacked effort. He dropped countless passes and gave up on routes, doing so under two different head coaches. Cooper has tried hard with his new team, but that won’t always be the case. Cooper once was hungry with the Raiders as well before he quit on them. What’s going to happen when the erratic Dak Prescott starts missing Cooper on deep throws like he’s done frequently with Michael Gallup recently? It’s not going to end pretty for Dallas.
The Cowboys will at least be able to run the ball well against most opponents. But not this one. The Colts, believe it or not, are fourth in rush defense DVOA. This is because of Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Darius Leonard, as well as defensive tackle Denico Autry, who is playing on a Pro Bowl level right now. Autry and company appear to have a major edge in the trenches this Sunday, as stellar guard Zack Martin will be either hampered or absent because of an MCL sprain.
With Elliott limited, Prescott will be asked to convert third-and-long situations quite frequently in this game. Prescott is not playing well, despite his 400-yard performance against the Eagles, and I suspect that he might commit a few turnovers in this game, especially if Martin isn’t quite himself.
INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: While Dallas’ offensive line has taken a step backward this season, the Colts’ blocking has improved exponentially. Indianapolis’ front kept Andrew Luck clean for the most part against the Texans, which is why he was able to score 24 points against them – a number that would’ve been much higher had Eric Ebron and some receivers not dropped so many passes!
The Cowboys, like the Texans, place a great deal of pressure on opposing signal-callers, but Luck will continue to be shielded well. As a result, Luck will be able to torch the Dallas secondary, which is the weak spot of the Cowboy defense. Byron Jones is great, but the other cornerbacks have struggled this year. Dallas has also been poor against tight ends, so Ebron should have another big game.
The one thing the Colts won’t be able to do is establish the run with Marlon Mack, but that was the case last week versus Houston’s great ground defense. That didn’t bother the Colts one bit, as they averaged 6.6 yards per play against the Texans.
RECAP: This is my top pick of the week. I love the Colts, and I’ll be betting them for five units.
As mentioned earlier, Indianapolis has a tremendous matchup edge. The Cowboys do one thing extremely well offensively, which is run the ball with Elliott, but the Colts can take that away. Meanwhile, Indianapolis can exploit the sole weakness of Dallas’ defense.
That’s not all, however. The Colts also seem to have the motivational edge. Think about it: What does this game mean to the Cowboys? It’s impossible for them to catch the Saints or Rams for one of the top two seeds. Conversely, they’re two up on the Eagles, whom they swept, and the Redskins, who are down to their fourth-string quarterback. The Cowboys are either going to be the third or fourth seed, and I don’t think it matters to them which one they’ll be. They’re coming off a tiring overtime victory against a hated divisional rival, yet are now playing a team that lost 6-0 to the Jaguars two weeks ago.
We will not see the Cowboys’ best effort in this game. The Colts, arguably the better team, play very well at home, and they should take care of business. The public is pounding Dallas, so let’s take advantage of that with a huge wager on the Colts.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve seen nothing that would keep me from betting five units on the Colts. T.Y. Hilton’s status is a minor concern, as he has yet to practice this week. However, the same thing happened last week, and he dominated Houston. If Hilton returns to practice Friday, I’ll lock this in.
SATURDAY NOTES: There’s sharp action coming in on the Colts, who are now -3 -115. Unfortunately, T.Y. Hilton didn’t practice Friday. He could still play though, as he’s listed as questionable. The good news for Indianapolis is that Cowboys guard Zack Martin, one of the top players at his position in the entire NFL, will miss this game. The Cowboys won’t be able to run the ball nearly as well, and Indianapolis already had a stout ground defense.
FINAL THOUGHTS: T.Y. Hilton is active, which is great news. The Cowboys will be missing Zack Martin and really have nothing to play for because they’re stuck in the third or fourth seed, so that’s a big emotional edge for Indianapolis. The best line is Colts -3 -115 at 5Dimes.
The Psychology. Edge: Colts.
The Cowboys, coming off a tiring overtime win, don’t have much to play for, as they’re effectively locked into the third or fourth seed.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Cowboys are a public dog.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Colts 30, Cowboys 20
Colts -3 -115 (5 Units) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$500
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 23, Cowboys 0
Detroit Lions (5-8) at Buffalo Bills (4-9)
Line: Bills by 3. Total: 39.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -3.
Sunday, Dec 16, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Lions.
If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.
I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!
BUFFALO OFFENSE: It’s been amazing how productive Josh Allen has been as a rusher. Lamar Jackson was widely seen as the top running quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft, yet Allen has outgained him on the ground, generating at least 99 rushing yards in each of his past three games.
It’ll be interesting to see if that continues in this game because the Lions actually stop the run very well. They’ve improved in that area since acquiring Snacks Harrison to clog the interior. Harrison and A’Shawn Robinson give the Lions a big advantage in the trenches on this side of the ball, so Allen may have trouble hitting triple digits again in the rushing category.
If so, the Bills will be in trouble. Allen, despite being great as a runner the past three weeks, has committed five turnovers in that span. The Lions will be able to take away one of his pedestrian receivers with Darius Slay, so the turnover-prone Allen could make more mistakes.
DETROIT OFFENSE: While the Lions defend the run well, the Bills are pretty poor against it. Whether or not the Lions can move the chains on the ground depends on Kerryon Johnson’s availability.
Johnson is a dynamic rookie who is averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Unfortunately for the Lions, he’s been sidelined since Week 11. His replacement, LeGarrette Blount, has been very poor by comparison, averaging 2.9 yards per try. It’s currently unclear if Johnson will be able to suit up, though I imagine we’ll have a better idea when I post the Thursday Thoughts.
Johnson isn’t the only member of Detroit’s backfield who happens to be injured. Matthew Stafford is as well, as he’s dealing with some back issues. By my count, Stafford took three downfield shots last week and failed to connect on any of them. He just dinked and dunked otherwise, yet it was enough against Arizona. That strategy might just be good enough to beat Buffalo as well.
RECAP: If you’ve been reading for a while, you know my rule about the Lions: Pick them when they’re playing a bad team. Fade them when they’re playing a good team. The last time I checked, the Bills are a bad team.
Whether or not I actually bet the Lions is a different story. I will put a couple of units on them if Johnson is active and Stafford’s back is reported to be healthier this week. As for now, I’ll mark this down as TBA units.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is sort of like the Miami game, where I’d like to bet on the visitor, but the quarterback and a key player (Kerryon Johnson) have been limited and out in practice, respectively.
SATURDAY NOTES: Kerryon Johnson is out. Right tackle Ricky Wagner is out. Matthew Stafford is questionable. This makes me want to side with the Bills, but I’ll stick with my Detroit strategy. What’s clear is that I’m not going to be betting this game.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bills will be missing their top two running backs. I’d like to bet the Lions, but they’re so banged up. That includes Matthew Stafford. If you want to bet Detroit, +3 -115 is available at BetUS. The sharps are on Buffalo.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
Tons of action pouring in on the Bills.
The Trends. Edge: Bills.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Lions 23, Bills 20
Lions +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 39.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 14, Lions 13
Green Bay Packers (5-7-1) at Chicago Bears (9-4)
Line: Bears by 5. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bears -8.
Sunday, Dec 16, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Bears.
Video of the Week: If you liked Star Trek: The Next Generation, you’ll love this. It’s still a great video, regardless:
Shut up, Wesley!
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers made my pick of Atlanta +6 look stupid last week. He was killer on third down, as the Packers posted 34 points. However, Rodgers wasn’t all that great. He completed 21-of-32 passes and threw two touchdowns, but had just 196 yards, giving him a YPA of jusy 6.13. Rodgers also had a potential pick-six that was dropped in the second quarter. This would’ve turned the game completely around, but the Falcon defender had the poor throw go right through his hands.
Rodgers won’t be so fortunate if he makes the same sort of mistake in this game. Actually, Rodgers may not be fortunate even if he doesn’t commit any errors. The Bears have the NFL’s top defense as far as defending the run and pass are concerned, so that’s a far cry from the Falcons’ 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense. It’s not a surprise that Rodgers was able to rip through Atlanta so easily. However, the week before, Rodgers could barely move the chains on the Cardinals, who are ninth versus aerial attacks. It just goes to show you how vital matchups are in the NFL, and Rodgers figures to play worse than he did versus Arizona as a result.
Rodgers’ offensive line isn’t very good to begin with, and several starters are banged up, so I expect the Bears to pressure Rodgers heavily. Chicago will also shut down Aaron Jones. The Packers, as a consequence, will struggle to move the chains throughout the afternoon.
CHICAGO OFFENSE: If the Bears get “B” grade quarterbacking from Mitchell Trubisky in the playoffs, they’ll have a great chance to win the Super Bowl. If you remove all the quarterbacks in the NFL, Chicago would have the best roster in the league, and I’m not sure it would even be close. The problem, unfortunately, is Trubisky, who had a stinker of a performance against the Rams.
Trubisky has great talent and upside, and his rushing ability is tremendous, but he constantly throws off his back foot, which causes interceptions on inaccurate balls. He did this constantly against the Rams. Perhaps this was just rust from not playing for a while because there have been games in which Trubisky has avoided doing this for the most part. We’ll see what happens, but there’s a good chance that Trubisky has a dud performance in which he presses the issue and throws off his back foot often, perhaps while trying to keep up with Drew Brees in New Orleans.
This matchup, however, is an easy one. The Packers have issues in their secondary, and they’re even worse against the run. This gives Chicago a huge advantage. The Bears are tremendous at running the ball, both with Trubisky and their two backs, so they’ll pick up big chunks on the ground in this game.
RECAP: I normally love to bet on great quarterbacks getting lots of points. This would qualify in most cases. However, I just can’t pull the trigger on the Packers, as Rodgers is not himself. He’s not 100 percent, as evidenced by his ability to only beat three terrible teams (Bills, Dolphins with Brock Osweiler, Falcons) by more than a field goal this year. I look forward to betting on Rodgers heavily next year when he’s 100 percent, but I won’t be backing him in this contest.
I like the Bears to cover. If the Vikings were able to beat Green Bay by a touchdown at home, Chicago can do the same thing. I don’t really want to bet this game, however, as Rodgers is certainly capable of throwing a back-door touchdown. He nearly did this at Minnesota, missing Davante Adams by a few inches. He might have better luck at Chicago, especially with talented slot corner Bryce Callahan out with a broken bone in his foot, but I still think the Bears get there by seven or so.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s a shame for the Bears that they lost Bryce Callahan. He was having an excellent season as the team’s slot cornerback. I’m sure Aaron Rodgers will take advantage of this, which strengthens the potential for a back-door touchdown, especially with the line moving to +6 -105. I’m still on Chicago, however.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears might be missing two defensive backs, with Eddie Jackson questionable and Bryce Callahan out for the year. Jackson hadn’t practiced all week. Meanwhile, two of the Packers’ better players, right tackle Bryan Bulaga and nose tackle Kenny Clark, also failed to practice all week. Bulaga is doubtful, while Clark is questionable. I’m still concerned about a potential back-door cover, so I’m not going to be betting this game.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Eddie Jackson is playing for Chicago. Meanwhile, the Packers are missing both Bryan Bulaga and Kenny Clark. Aaron Rodgers’ pass protection will be worse against Chicago’s great front, while Clark’s absence means the Bears should be able to run all over Green Bay. In the wake of this news, I’m inclined to put a couple of units on the Bears, who should be favored by at least six, perhaps even seven. The best line is -5.5 -105 at Bookmaker.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Packers.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Packers 20
Bears -5.5 -105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 24, Packers 17
Tennessee Titans (7-6) at New York Giants (5-8)
Line: Titans by 2. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Giants -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Giants -1.
Sunday, Dec 16, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: None.
Two years ago, on the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, Tom Brady was elected as the President of the United States, as it was revealed that he was the only candidate running because both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were figments of his imagination. He followed that up by stopping Vladimir Putin from hacking the NFL. In doing so, however, Tom Brady was stuck in an evil dimension, and his evil counterpart has come into our world. No one is aware that Tom Brady is now Evil Tom Brady, which is great for Evil Tom Brady because he can begin devastating the world…
To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!
NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants have played much better following their bye. They’re 4-1 since their week off, with their lone loss being at Philadelphia, where they took their foot off the gas after establishing a big lead. They’ve upset the Bears (albeit with Chase Daniel at quarterback) and blew out two teams. This is a far cry from the squad that was dominated by the Redskins in Week 8.
The biggest difference has been the offensive line. The adjustment the Giants made have helped, while Nate Solder has performed better. The unit blew open some huge holes for Saquon Barkley last week. Barkley could have challenged for the single-game rushing record, but he was removed from the field at the end of the third quarter because the score was 40-0.
Barkley figures to have a strong game this week, but more so as a receiver out of the backfield because the Titans are strong against the run. Tennessee, however, struggles versus the pass, ranking 23rd in DVOA in that department. The corners have performed poorly this year, but weren’t challenged last Thursday night versus the Cody Kessler-led Jaguars, or even the week before against the Jets. That won’t be the case this Sunday, assuming Odell Beckham Jr. returns from injury.
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: What Derrick Henry did last week was astonishing. The running back, described by my dad as “the guy with poop coming out of his helmet,” struggled all year, but absolutely trampled the Jaguars.
Henry’s hairdo aside, he seems like a good guy, so I’ll be rooting for him. He has a nice matchup here against the Giants, who have been far worse against the run ever since they traded away Snacks Harrison. Henry and Dion Lewis could both have solid games, as the Giants’ linebacking corps is weak against pass-catching running backs and tight ends. Jonnu Smith would have a great matchup as well, but he suffered a season-ending injury Thursday night.
Meanwhile, the Giants aren’t great versus the pass either. Aside from Carson Wentz, they’ve played some dud quarterbacks lately – Mark Sanchez, Chase Daniel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Nick Mullens – so Marcus Mariota will pose a greater challenge. Mariota should once again be able to move the chains efficiently.
RECAP: I think this is one of the most difficult games to handicap this week. These teams seem evenly matched. Both have matchup edges for their offense, and I don’t see why either squad would be unfocused. This spread seems to be set correctly as well.
I’d say the most likely result in this game would be the Giants winning by a field goal, so I’m going to take New York -2.5. I’m not going to bet this game, unfortunately.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Odell Beckham Jr. practiced Wednesday, but it doesn’t sound like he’s optimistic about being available on Sunday. The DVOA numbers say the Giants should be favored by 4.5, which makes sense to me. It wouldn’t surprise me if I ended up betting on the Giants by Sunday morning, though that would require Beckham to play to take advantage of a great matchup.
SATURDAY NOTES: It’s going to be windy at the Meadowlands, oh, and Odell Beckham Jr. will be out, so I’m switching to the under. I still like the Giants with Beckham out, but I’m not going to bet on New York without him.
FINAL THOUGHTS: No Odell Beckham Jr., as expected, which is why the Titans are now favored by two. I would’ve bet the Giants had this spread gotten to +3. The sharps are on Tennessee.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Giants 20, Titans 17
Giants +2 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 17, Giants 0
Washington Redskins (6-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9)
Line: Jaguars by 7.5. Total: 36.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jaguars -4.
Sunday, Dec 16, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views, so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!
Some recent Open Rant articles:
Reader’s Discussion of Six Potential Head-Coaching Candidates
Reader on why the Lions and Giants should do a trade involving Matthew Stafford
Reader’s Route Runners: The Best, Yet Overlooked?
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Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:
Spencer Flohr Mock Draft
HitPoint0213 Mock Draft
Robbertjandrost Mock Draft
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Ugh, do I even have to talk about these matchups? Cody Kessler versus Josh Johnson? What did we do to deserve this? Why couldn’t these terrible quarterbacks play different opponents this week? Is it because the Chargers angered the gambling gods by not covering the spread against Jeff Driskel? Probably!
Kessler sucks, as the Jaguars have averaged just 7.5 points per game with him under center the past two weeks. As terrible as Blake Bortles was, he’s far better than Kessler, who can barely complete routine, 5-yard passes. I don’t think he’ll be any better this week.
However, the Jaguars have a huge matchup edge on this side of the ball, and that would be Leonard Fournette going up against Washington’s putrid run defense. You may ask, “Why would Fournette do anything this week after struggling against the Titans?” Well, Tennessee is 13th against the run in ground defense DVOA, while the Redskins are 24th in that department. They just nearly allowed Saquon Barkley to have a historic performance, and I can’t imagine them being much better against Fournette.
WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Like the Jaguars, the Redskins will attempt to establish the run. However, unlike the Jaguars, the Redskins won’t be nearly as successful doing so.
The Jaguars may have been a big disappointment this year, but they still have a top-10 rush defense. That didn’t appear to be the case when Derrick Henry trampled them Thursday night, but that was a low-effort performance from the Jaguars, who were coming off their “Super Bowl” victory over the Colts. I suspect they’ll try harder this week after being embarrassed on national TV. If so, they’ll be able to limit Adrian Peterson.
If the Redskins can’t run the ball, they won’t have any success offensively. They’re down to their fourth quarterback after the Mark Sanchez debacle. Josh Johnson is a smart quarterback who can scramble, so he’s already better than Sanchez. However, he has limited ability and isn’t very accurate. The one season in which he started multiple games, Johnson completed just 50.4 percent of his passes on a 5.5 YPA. The Redskins could have better quarterbacking play right now if they weren’t stubborn and signed the one glaring name out there right now. You know who I’m talking about. Matt Moore deserves a chance!
RECAP: The Jaguars have a great matchup edge in this game with Fournette being able to pound the ball, but this spread is too high. Seven points? Really!? The Jaguars haven’t even scored double digits with Kessler yet!
I’m on the Redskins, but I’m certainly not betting them with Johnson at quarterback. Again, it’s regrettable that Kessler and Johnson aren’t playing other opponents this week. Oh well. Maybe the gambling gods will be kinder in Week 16.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: While I might bet the Giants-Titans game, I most definitely am not betting this game. Let’s just move on with our lives.
SATURDAY NOTES: There’s no way in hell I’m betting this game. However, it’s worth noting that the Jaguars will be without FOUR starting offensive linemen. Argh, why couldn’t these teams be battling other opponents this week?
FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, let’s just move on with our lives, though I will say the sharps are on the Jaguars.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
Slight lean on the Jaguars.
The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Jaguars 16, Redskins 10
Redskins +7.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 36.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 16, Jaguars 13
Arizona Cardinals (3-10) at Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
Line: Falcons by 9. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -7.5.
Sunday, Dec 16, 1:00 PM
The Game. Edge: Cardinals.
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ATLANTA OFFENSE: I loved the Falcons last week because the Packers wouldn’t be able to stop the one thing Atlanta does well on this side of the ball. Green Bay’s poor secondary wouldn’t be able to prevent Matt Ryan from throwing well downfield, and I was right. Unfortunately, the Falcons self-destructed with stupid mistakes. They had two fumbles in the red zone, which negated 6-14 points, and Ryan’s pick-six was an absolute killer.
As sad as it is for the Falcons, it’ll be tougher for them to throw the ball on the Cardinals. Arizona has been pathetic this year, but not in its aerial defense efforts. The Cardinals are ninth as far as stopping the pass is concerned. Their pass rush is decent, so Ryan will feel some heat. Meanwhile, Patrick Peterson will be able to take away Julio Jones. If you don’t think an elite corner can erase Jones, I’d like to direct you to what the Ravens were able to do against Jones a couple of weeks ago when they limited him to two catches for 18 yards.
As great as the Cardinals are versus the pass, they can’t stop the run at all. Fortunately for them, the Falcons can’t move the ball on the ground very effectively, as Tevin Coleman has been a poor substitute for Devonta Freeman.
ARIZONA OFFENSE: Both of these teams have miserable defenses. The Cardinals at least rank highly in one category. The Falcons do not, but that could change, as Deion Jones will be playing in his third game back from injury. Jones is one of the top linebackers in the NFL, and his presence has allowed the Falcons to play better against the run. Atlanta limited Aaron Jones well last week, save for his touchdown run in the third quarter.
I don’t expect David Johnson to do much, though I imagine he’d struggle in most matchups because he’s been poorly utilized all year. The Cardinals are not giving Johnson the ball enough in space, which is just mystifying. It’s almost like they’re trying to lose intentionally.
While Jones has helped with run support, the Falcons are still miserable versus the pass. We saw this last week when Rodgers shredded them. Granted, there’s a huge chasm between Rodgers and Josh Rosen, but I don’t think Atlanta will be able to defend Larry Fitzgerald. If Rosen still had Christian Kirk at his disposal, I’d give the Cardinals a good chance of moving the chains consistently, but Kirk is out for the year. Still, Rosen won’t be completely stymied in this favorable matchup.
RECAP: This is another spread that’s way too high. The Cardinals stink, but so do the Falcons. Can you tell me how many times the Falcons have won by double digits this year? It’s happened once, and that was against the Redskins, who were visibly flat in that game. Otherwise, the Falcons have won all of their games by single digits. I don’t see why that would suddenly change, especially given that Arizona’s defense can take away the one thing the Falcons do well.
Speaking of the Cardinals, they’ve kept most of their games close this year. Since Rosen replaced Sam Bradford, Arizona lost by more than 14 just twice. Those defeats were to the Broncos and Chargers, both of whom are far superior compared to the Falcons.
I like the Cardinals quite a bit here, as this spread is bloated for no reason. This will be a three-unit wager.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Julio Jones’ status is something to watch. Jones hasn’t practiced yet because of foot and calf injuries, plus an illness. If he misses this game, Arizona will look even better.
SATURDAY NOTES: Julio Jones will play, but may not be 100 percent. Regardless, the Cardinals are worth a moderately sized play, as they match up well against the Falcons in this high spread. Some +10 -120s have appeared. I may lock this in if I see a +10 -115.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Unfortunately, the +10 -120s have disappeared. Most spreads are +9, but because nine is such an extremely rare margin, it’s worth selling a half of a point. You can get +8.5 -104 at 5Dimes, which I’ll round to -105 to make it easier for record keeping.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
Week 15 NFL Pick: Falcons 23, Cardinals 17
Cardinals +8.5 -105 (3 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$315
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 40, Cardinals 14
Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games
Seattle at San Francisco, New England at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia at LA Rams, New Orleans at Carolina
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
NFL Picks - Dec. 11
2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11
NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9
2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29
Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4
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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265
2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)
2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
| Cowboys: 6-6 |
Bears: 5-7 |
Bucs: 8-5 |
49ers: 8-5 |
| Eagles: 7-6 |
Lions: 10-3 |
Falcons: 7-6 |
Cardinals: 9-4 |
| Giants: 4-8 |
Packers: 9-3 |
Panthers: 5-8 |
Rams: 7-6 |
| Redskins: 6-6 |
Vikings: 5-7 |
Saints: 6-7 |
Seahawks: 7-5 |
| |
|
||
| Bills: 5-8 |
Bengals: 3-10 |
Colts: 7-6 |
Broncos: 9-4 |
| Dolphins: 5-8 |
Browns: 5-8 |
Jaguars: 4-7 |
Chargers: 7-5 |
| Jets: 7-6 |
Ravens: 6-6 |
Texans: 5-7 |
Chiefs: 5-7 |
| Patriots: 7-4 |
Steelers: 6-7 |
Titans: 8-4 |
Raiders: 7-6 |
| |
|
||
| Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561) |
2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387) |
2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441) |
2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211) |
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446) |
2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293) |
Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185) |
Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37) |
2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2012 Season:
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Super Bowl XLVII NFL Pick
2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2013 Season:
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2014 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2014 Season:
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2015 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2015 Season:
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2016 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2016 Season:
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2017 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2017 Season:
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2018 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2018 Season:
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2019 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2019 Season:
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2020 Season:
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Super Bowl LV Pick
2021 Season:
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2022 Season:
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2023 Season:
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2024 Season:
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