NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,415)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$510)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2018): 5-8 (-$1,445)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2018): 5-8-1 (-$735)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2018): 5-5-3 (+$950)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2018): 7-8 (+$215)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2018): 7-9 (-$630)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2018): 11-5 (+$1,090)

NFL Picks (2018): 112-107-10 (+$750)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 16, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games

Seattle Seahawks (8-5) at San Francisco 49ers (3-10)
Line: Seahawks by 3.5. Total: 44.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -7.5.
Sunday, Dec 16, 4:05 PM

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is underway! In Episode 14, the evil statue group Statue-13 attacks during the inagural Black Friday game. How will the NFL respond?

SEATTLE OFFENSE: These teams just played in Week 13, so in another brilliant instance of NFL scheduling, the rematch happens just two weeks later. Good job, Roger Goodell!

Russell Wilson had his way with San Francisco’s defense in a 43-16 blowout victory. Wilson barely threw the ball – he had just six attempts in the opening half – and yet he had three touchdowns on those passes. Wilson was 11-of-17 in that contest, but for 185 yards (10.9 YPA), four touchdowns and no interceptions. Considering that the 49ers have the 26th-ranked DVOA pass defense, none of this was any sort of surprise. Wilson will be slightly less effective this time if Doug Baldwin sits out again, but he’ll still be difficult for San Francisco to stop.

The 49ers are better against the run, but they still had trouble stopping Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny, as the duo combined for 134 yards on just 20 carries. However, I expect that to change this time. The 49ers just put the clamps on Phillip Lindsay, which is not an easy thing to do. They should play better versus Carson and Penny this time.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Despite the blowout loss, Nick Mullens posted monstrous numbers against the Seahawks two weeks ago, going 30-of-48 for 414 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Granted, this occurred in garbage time, but Mullens was terrific versus Denver this past Sunday, going 20-of-33 for 332 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. Most of this transpired in the opening half, as Mullens completed just four passes after halftime. However, he made clutch completions when it mattered most, as the 49ers took the air out of the ball with a giant lead.

I don’t know what to make of this. I know the Broncos were missing their top cornerback, but they legitimately couldn’t stop Mullens. The Southern Miss alumnus abused Denver’s defense by throwing to George Kittle, something that he won’t have as much success doing this week because the Seahawks are far better versus tight ends than the Broncos are. However, Seattle’s cornerbacks aren’t very good, and Mullens didn’t have Marquise Goodwin at his disposal in the first meeting.

It’ll be interesting to see if Matt Breida can return as well. Breida aggravated his ankle injury during pre-game warmups in Seattle. He missed last week’s contest, but his return will help, although Jeff Wilson Jr. has done well in his absence.

RECAP: In a vacuum, I’d expect the Seahawks to demolish the 49ers again. They’re far better, and their matchup edge in the passing game is enormous. I’m going to pick them to cover this spread.

However, I’m not betting this game, as this might be a low-effort performance by Seattle. The team doesn’t have much to play for, as it will almost certainly be the No. 5 seed. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have the Chiefs coming up, so they could be looking ahead to that contest. They’ll likely be flat, and it’s not like they’ll necessarily have motivation to beat the 49ers, since they just did it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line keeps plummeting! It’s now +3.5 in most books! The sharps are pounding the hell out of the 49ers, quite possibly because this game means very little to Seattle. I’m on the Seahawks still, but I’m not going to bet this game unless the spread hits -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: Still no +3 yet. I don’t think we’ll see it, but I can only hope! Doug Baldwin will play, according to Pete Carroll. That makes Seattle more enticing. I may bet the Seahawks come Sunday.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s no +3, but I still may bet the Seahawks. Denver’s loss last night makes San Francisco’s victory over the Broncos look far less impressive. Check back at 3:30ish for final thoughts on this game, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to put a unit on the Seahawks. It sucks that the -3.5s are gone, but -4 is fine. This line is short, and Seattle is a much better team, but I’m worried that it might be flat.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

Why would the Seahawks have any interest in beating the 49ers again? They’re big favorites with the Chiefs coming up.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

A good deal of action on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 72% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Home Team has won 16 of the last 20 meetings (Seahawks won last 10).

Seahawks are 27-12 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.

Seahawks are 13-5 ATS in their road finale since 1996.

Seahawks are 39-49 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 61 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, 49ers 20
Seahawks -4 (1 Unit) – any sportsbook — Incorrect; -$110
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 26, Seahawks 23

New England Patriots (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5-1)
Line: Patriots by 2.5. Total: 54.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -1.5.
Sunday, Dec 16, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: .

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the Thomas Middleditch Verizon Commercials (Again)

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: A spread was just posted on this game, as it wasn’t clear what Ben Roethlisberger’s status would be. Roethlisberger injured his ribs against the Raiders and missed most of the second half as a result. Roethlisberger was held out until the Raiders took the lead. He re-entered the game and led a touchdown drive, then put the team into field goal range, where his kicker slipped on the turf and had his attempt blocked.

I have to imagine Roethlisberger will play, and the sportsbooks agree, as they’ve listed the Steelers as one-point underdogs. Roethlisberger might be a drama queen, but he’s a tough guy and always seems to suit up if it’s close. He may not be 100 percent, however, but he has a strong offensive line to shield him. He also has a big advantage at his disposal, with tight end Vance McDonald going up against a defense that can’t stop tight ends. Besides, it’s not like the Patriots will be able to focus on him with Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster serving as dynamic threats on the outside.

Roethlisberger isn’t the only injury question mark for the Steelers entering this game. It’s still an unknown if James Conner will be able to play, meaning Jaylen Samuels could get another start at running back. Samuels is a nice receiver out of the backfield – he was a tight end at N.C. State – but he’s not a pure runner, and thus, the Patriots won’t have to worry about him like they did against the Dolphin backs, who gashed them last week. Conner could suit up, but if he does, he may not be 100 percent.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady is healthy, and he has dominated the Steelers over the years. A big reason for this, excluding the obvious, is that Pittsburgh has been a team heavily reliant on blitzing. Brady carves up the blitz, so he’s been able to shred the Steelers in nearly every matchup against them.

The Steelers changed their strategy when the two teams clashed last year. They didn’t blitz nearly as often, and Brady wasn’t as effective. The Patriots trailed for most of the contest until some late-game heroics, plus a Jesse James controversial drop, awarded the Patriots the victory. That might give Pittsburgh some hope if it didn’t have defensive issues. The Steelers have trouble stopping the pass, thanks to their issues in the secondary. Joe Haden will be able to take Josh Gordon away, but Brady’s other weapons will be problematic for them. We just saw Derek Carr have success throwing on Pittsbrugh, so imagine what Brady will do.

The strength of Pittsburgh defense is the front line, and as a result, the team is far better against the run. As a result, I wouldn’t expect anything on the ground from Sony Michel, though James White will be effective as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: Let’s see here… Brady coming off a loss? Check. Brady playing a team he usually dominates? Check. Brady playing against a team that can’t stop the pass? Check. Brady favored by less than a field goal (12-4 ATS as a favorite of 1-2.5 points?) Check.

The Patriots are the play, especially with Roethlisberger banged up. Roethlisberger will play, but he likely won’t be 100 percent. Meanwhile, the Steelers will either have an injured running back or a tight end in the backfield with Roethlisberger, which does not bode well for their chances of winning this game.

The Steelers have not covered the spread since beating the Panthers on Thursday night about a month ago, and I expect things to remain that way. This is a four- or five-unit wager on New England, depending on the injury report (i.e. Conner.)

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is creeping up toward -3. I think I’m going to lock this in now before it gets there. Pinnacle has -2.5 -116 listed, so that’s an indication that this line might hit -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has hit -3 in some sportsbooks, so I’m glad I locked this one in. Unfortunately, James Conner practiced, so he may play, though he might not be 100 percent.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It turns out locking this in wasn’t a big deal because this line is -2.5 -115 at BetUS and 5Dimes right now. It’s -2.5 -110 at the Westgate, if you’re lucky enough to live in Nevada. At any rate, James Conner was downgraded to doubtful, which is a big deal because the Patriots struggled against the run last week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: James Conner is indeed out, which is great news. There are still -2.5 -115s available at BetUS and 5Dimes, while Pinnacle and Westgate have -2.5 -110 posted.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

No surprise that people are betting the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 71% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 231-72 as a starter (172-117 ATS).

Patriots are 15-18 ATS as road favorites since 2013.

Tom Brady is 12-4 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 3 points.

Tom Brady is 40-17 ATS off a loss (6-10 ATS as -7 or more).

Tom Brady is 32-13 ATS off a loss since 2003 (6-9 ATS as -7 or more).

Bill Belichick is 28-11 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Tom Brady is 7-2 ATS after losing to the Dolphins.

Steelers are 34-18 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Mike Tomlin is 22-14 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Ben Roethlisberger is 6-2 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Patriots -1.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: Cloudy, 41 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Steelers 24
Patriots -2.5 -115 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$460
Over 54.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 17, Patriots 10

Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) at Los Angeles Rams (11-2)
Line: Rams by 13. Total: 52.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -10.
Sunday, Dec 16, 8:20 PM

The Game. Edge: Rams.

I’m going to devote this section to Ross Avila. If this is your first time reading this, and you don’t know who Ross is, he’s a douche who harassed me on Facebook about my picks all last year. Here are some of the things he said:

He wrote this to me during the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, where he bragged about being right about Atlanta. Oops.

Ross constantly embarrassed himself throughout the year, including when he posted this, suggesting that he sold picks to people:

I eventually unfriended Ross. He started going after women on my Facebook page, including my then-fiancee. I warned him, and he didn’t listen, so I unfriended him.

Because I was a big part of Ross’ life, he sent me countless messages. I’ve shown you some already. Check this one out:

This is from last week. I wanted to show it to you again because there was a follow up:

Holy hell, did the girl he stalk and take pictures of really say yes when he asked her out on a date? What the hell is this world coming to? This Kristy girl must have no dignity. That, or she has the worst taste in men ever.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams couldn’t do much of anything Sunday night. Chicago’s stellar defensive line took Todd Gurley away. As a result, Jared Goff faced plenty of unfavorable passing situations and had to deal with great pressure. He tossed four interceptions as a result. One was on a Hail Mary try at the end of the opening half, but he had two other potential picks that were dropped. Goff looked like the struggling rookie we saw two years ago as a result.

There’s a big difference between the Chicago and Philadelphia defenses, however. In fact, there may not be any similarities. The Eagles’ pass rush, which was stellar last year, hasn’t shown any signs of life this season. I don’t think Philadelphia will get to Goff very often, so the former first-overall pick will have all night to carve up the Eagles’ depleted secondary. Philadelphia hasn’t been able to stop the pass whatsoever this season, and I don’t see why that suddenly would change.

As for Gurley, he’s going to have a tremendous bounce-back performance. The Eagles have been poor against the run as well. Ezekiel Elliott has been able to gash them twice in the past several weeks, and Gurley will be able to do the same thing.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Much like the pass rush, the Eagles’ offensive line is far weaker than it was last year. Philadelphia had a stellar blocking unit when it won the Super Bowl, but Carson Wentz’s protection has been atrocious this season. Part of the problem has been the tackle play. Both Jason Peters and Lane Johnson aren’t healthy, so their performance has regressed as a result. There’s a huge hole at left guard as well.

This obviously bodes extremely poorly against the Rams. Los Angeles’ terrific front has harassed quarterbacks all year, and now Aaron Donald and company have one of their easiest matchups yet. Plus, with Aqib Talib back, the Rams will be able to cover the Eagles better than they could have several weeks ago. Handling Zach Ertz will be a problem, but he’s the only threat the Rams will have to worry about.

The Rams’ defensive weakness is against the rush, but this is not something the Eagles will be able to take advantage of. They don’t run the ball very well. Josh Adams has been just fine, but he’s not someone who can expose a liability on his own, especially if the Eagles are in a big hole as the result of not being able to stop Goff and Gurley.

RECAP: The Rams appeared to end the Eagles’ season last year when Wentz tore up his knee around this time in December. This time, they’ll actually put an end to the Eagles’ hopes of getting to the Super Bowl.

The Eagles have floundered around lately, losing to an overrated Dallas squad, struggling to put away the Redskins, and needing a miraculous comeback to beat the Giants. The thing is, none of those opponents were great teams. The Rams, conversely, are a great team. The last time the Eagles battled a foe of this caliber, they were dumpstered at New Orleans, 48-7.

I fear the same fate could befall the Eagles in this game. The Rams are just on another level. They have all the matchup edges in this contest. The Eagles can’t block, can’t rush the passer, can’t run the ball and can’t stop aerial attacks. Oh, and Wentz isn’t 100 percent either. Los Angeles will be able to win at every facet, just like the Saints were able to.

I’m betting the Rams for three units. This is going to be an ugly blowout, leaving us wondering why Los Angeles wasn’t favored by closer to two touchdowns.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not betting this game anymore. In fact, I’m switching sides. Carson Wentz is out, which means Nick Foles will play. This spread has moved to -11.5 as a result, and I don’t want to wager double digits with a team that might believe it may have to put less effort into this contest. The Eagles, meanwhile, will be bringing out their underdog masks, and that’s not something I want to go against. It seems like the Wentz injury may have awakened the Eagles. They’re going to rally around Foles again. I learned my lesson from last year.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread keeps rising, but I’m going to stick with the Eagles. The underdog masks mean something to them, and they’ll rally around Nick Foles. Unfortunately, Sidney Jones and Jordan Hicks are out, which doesn’t help against the Rams’ high-powered offense (although Jones has been sucking, so he’s not a huge loss.)

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I don’t know why, but I have a feeling the Eagles are going to somehow win this game. The underdog masks are back, while the Rams haven’t played well in three weeks.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no interest betting in this game, and neither do the sharps. Public action is mixed. I don’t want to bet this game because of Philadelphia’s defensive injuries, but I have a feeling the Eagles will win for reasons mentioned above.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

Nick Foles is playing, so here come the underdog masks!

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 55% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 29-19 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Carson Wentz is 23-17 SU, 21-19 ATS as a starter.

Opening Line: Rams -9.5.

Opening Total: 54.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 62 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Rams 31, Eagles 24
Eagles +13.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 52 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 30, Rams 23

New Orleans Saints (11-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-7)
Line: Saints by 6. Total: 50.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -6.
Monday, Dec 17, 8:15 PM

The Game. Edge: Saints.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have two people I don’t know calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Carolina, where the Carolina Hurricanes take on the New Orleans Saints. Guys, we have a new member on our crew. The network executives decided to claim him on waivers despite there being a public backlash. Let me introduce to you, our new sideline reporter, Kareem Hunt! Kareem, let me be the first to wel- Kareem, no! Don’t kick the cheerleaders!

Kareem Hunt: Hi-yah! Hi-yah! Wait, what? I didn’t kick nobody.

Reilly: What? We clearly just saw you kicking the cheerleader!

Emmitt: Cheerleader, I do not understood the word on these. Cheerleader the guy who lead the cheer, so how comed all the cheerleader all name the leader when there can only be one leader at one times? Why not some ofed them call cheerfollower?

Reilly: Did you just call me cheerleader!? I’m not a cheerleader! Mother wouldn’t let me be a cheerleader on the home-school team even though I was the only one to try out even though I wanted to cheer for the football team, a.k.a. new daddy!

Cutler: That was a f***ed up time, not gonna lie.

Herm: HAHAHAHAHA! LOLOLOLOL! HAHAHAHAHA! LMAOOOOOOO! HEHEHEHEHEHE! HOHOHOHOHOHOHO! LOLZZZZZZ! Uhh… ummm…

Tollefson: See how pathetic you are, Kevin? Even your arch rival is laughing at you. But let’s talk about our new co-worker. Everyone’s talking about how this is going to be a PR nightmare, but I disagree. If anything, it’ll help. You see, I’m getting older, so I need someone to eventually take over my business. I will teach Kareem the art form of clubbing women over the head and stashing them in your cellar so that they’ll cook and clean naked for you.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by clubbing. Clubbing is the word “club” with the letters “I,” “N” and “G” at the end of it. I’m not sure why they are there because the word club is self-explanatory. Club is one of the four types of cards. One of the types is club. We’ve established that already, so let’s do that again. One of the types is club. So, to recap club is one of the card types. I’ll repeat if you’re slow taking notes. Club is one of the card types. Are you ready for the second card type? First, let’s review. The first card type is, you guessed it, club. If you didn’t guess it, club is the first card type. Remember that. The first card type is club. What about the second card type? Good question. But first, let’s make sure we have the first card type correct. And that would be club. Let’s take a break for now, and we’ll reconvene later.

Wolfley: DAN, IT’S A GOOD THING YOU DIDN’T MENTION THE OTHER CARD TYPES. CLUB IS VERY JEALOUS. IF CLUB HEARS THE OTHER CARD TYPES, CLUB WILL COME AND DESTROY YOU AND ANY TOILET PAPERS WITH LIPS YOU MAY BE FRIENDS WITH.

Fouts: I know this, Ron. Why do you think I was so careful?

Reilly: What are you idiots talking about!? Why would club be jealous of heart, diamond and spear? You guys are so dumb, I-

Club: Hark, have I heard others mention the other card types!? I have come to destroy you and any toilet papers you might be friends with!

Reilly: Ahhhh!!! Someone save me! Kareem Hunt, you just karate chopped a cheerleader, so you can help!

Kareem Hunt: But where are its boobs? This thing looks too masculine for me to hit!

Charles Davis: Now wait a second, Club, let’s talk about it first, Club. Let’s discuss the first card type, Club. That’s club, Club. Let’s discuss some other card types, Club. How about club, Club? I mentioned club already, Club, but that’s because club is the best card type, Club. How about we discuss club, Club? Club is better than the other card types, Club, so on second thought, Club, let’s not talk about anything other than club, Club.

Club: Fine, fine. That’ll suffice. Just don’t mention those other scum again, or I will destroy you and your toilet papers!

Reilly: Thank you so much, Charles Davis! You saved me life yet again! I will have to repay you one day. We’ll be back after this!

Charles Davis (inaudibly): Yes, Kevin, but maybe, Kevin, you should’ve noticed it was a coincidence, Kevin, that a club showed up as soon as you said it, Kevin, and soon, Kevin, you will owe more than your life, Kevin, and you’ll give me your most prized possessions ever, Kevin, muhahaha, Kevin.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Schematically, analyzing this matchup is simple. The Panthers love to blitz. Drew Brees carves up the blitz. Brees beat the Panthers three times last year, and it’s not surprising, considering what Carolina tends to do on this side of the ball.

Things will be even worse for the Panthers now. Their secondary is an absolute mess. They’re 28th in pass defense DVOA, so they stand no chance of slowing down Drew Brees. They’ll need to pressure him without sending extra defenders. That will prove to be difficult, as Brees is well protected. That will especially be true if left tackle Terron Armstead returns from injury. He’s due back soon, so he could reappear this Monday night.

The one thing the Panthers do well on this side of the ball is stop the run, thanks to Kawann Short and Luke Kuechly. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram could be bottled up on the ground for the most part, though I’d expect Kamara to have a decent receiving performance.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: I wrote about it last week when I made a big wager against the Panthers. Cam Newton is injured. He hit the ground hard at the 5:50 mark in the fourth quarter of the Tampa Bay loss. He grabbed his shoulder and winced in pain. After that, he threw an interception, had a pick dropped, overshot an open receiver, dinked and dunked, failed to reach the end zone on a Hail Mary, and was removed from the game on a second Hail Mary try. Newton didn’t throw the following Thursday, which was unusual, so it was no surprise to see him struggle against the Browns.

There’s now talk that Newton needs surgery. If I’m the Panthers, and I lose this game, I’m going to sideline Newton for the final two weeks of the season. He’s just not healthy right now, so there’s no point in risking his long-term health. I don’t think he’ll be able to take advantage of the Saints’ 22nd-ranked DVOA pass defense.

Assuming Newton doesn’t make some miraculous recovery without surgery, somehow, the only thing the Panthers can do well offensively is run the ball. That does not bode well in this matchup because the Saints have one of the best ground defenses in the NFL. They recently limited Ezekiel Elliott to just 75 yards on 23 carries, which was quite the feat. Christian McCaffrey don’t do much on the ground as a result, though I’d still expect him to have some long gains as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: This is one of my top plays of the week. I’m betting four units on the Saints.

I know, I know, this is a public road favorite on national TV, but the Saints seem like such an obvious side to me. They have a colossal edge in the matchups, as they always dominate the Panthers. And if that weren’t enough, Newton is legitimately injured. I was eager to bet against Newton last week because I knew he wouldn’t be himself, and he ended up losing to a mediocre opponent by six points even though the Browns made countless mistakes. What’s going to happen when Newton is asked to keep up with a great team like New Orleans in a shootout?

I think this game will get ugly, as the Saints will beat up on the reeling Panthers very easily. A healthy Newton would have a chance of keeping this contest close enough to get a back-door cover, but the Newton we’re seeing now won’t be able to do that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread dropped to -6 on Wednesday. Unfortunately, I didn’t jump on this when I should have because the line is -6.5 again. Regardless, I still love New Orleans, as Cam Newton is seriously injured.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kawann Short is an interesting name to show up on the injury report, but Ron Rivera said there’s no level of concern with him being out.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m hoping that -6 -110 appears at some point. You can get that at Pinnacle if you live outside the U.S., or at the Westgate, if you live in Nevada. The best number online is -6 -115 at BetUS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Ron Rivera said there’s no level of concern with Kawann Short being out, but Short has been downgraded to doubtful. That’s a huge deal because he’s Carolina’s best defensive lineman. He’s both the best pass rusher and top run defender on the Panthers’ front. The Saints will be able to have more success running with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram with him out. I’m confident in the Saints, but I’m still holding out for -6 -110. The best -6 I see online for American citizens is -6 -115 at BetUS. If you’re out of the country, -6 -111 is available at Pinnacle, while -6 -110 is available at the Westgate for those of you who are lucky enough to live in Nevada.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kawann Short is active for the Panthers, which is a shocker because he was listed as doubtful. He may not be 100 percent though, so the Saints should still be able to benefit. The most significant injury is to Cam Newton, who hasn’t been the same since slamming his shoulder on the ground with five minutes remaining in regulation against the Buccaneers. The Saints match up extremely well against the Panthers, so I like their chances of covering here. Also, we got our wishes with -6 -110 available in some books. In fact, it’s -6 -105 at Bovada! This is a four-unit pick for me. The sharps are not betting this game heavily to one side.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
Slight lean on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 62% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

History: Saints have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Saints are 9-15 ATS as road favorites of 4 or more since 2010.

Cam Newton is 24-20 ATS off a loss as long as he’s not favored by 7+.

Cam Newton is 9-4 ATS as an underdog of 6+ since his second season.

Opening Line: Saints -6.5.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: Clear, 44 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Saints 41, Panthers 27
Saints -6 -105 (4 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$420
Over 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 12, Panthers 9

Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games
LA Chargers at Kansas City, Cleveland at Denver, Houston at NY Jets, Arizona at Atlanta, Detroit at Buffalo, Green Bay at Chicago, Oakland at Cincinnati, Dallas at Indianapolis, Miami at Minnesota, Tennessee at NY Giants, Washington at Jacksonville, Tampa Bay at Baltimore

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Lions +8.5, Giants +7.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220

People like to bet down in teasers. Betting up through key numbers actually gives you a better chance of winning. The Lions and Giants both play against limited offenses this week and should be able to stay within a touchdown.

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)