NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,415)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$510)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2018): 5-8 (-$1,445)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2018): 5-8-1 (-$735)

NFL Picks (2018): 82-80-7 (-$875)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 18, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

Green Bay Packers (4-4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (4-5)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 49.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3 +100.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -2.5.
Thursday, Nov 15, 8:20 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

WEEK 10 RECAP: Good news, bad news. The good news is that I hit my November NFL Pick of the Month, with the Seahawks +10 coming through. We had to sweat it out at the end, but considering that Seattle, as a 10-point dog, was leading entering the fourth quarter, it’s safe to say that we had the right side despite the back-door touchdown.

The bad news is that I finished in the red, going 5-8-1 (-$735). I have no idea what happened to the Jets and why they didn’t show up to play the Bills. It’d be one thing if they were coming off a tough victory, but it was a nice opportunity to snap a three-game losing streak. Instead, the Jets were dumpster fired by Matt Barkley. Unreal.

There was one bad beat, and that was Tampa -3. The Buccaneers accumulated 500 yards of offense and took six trips into the end zone. They outgained the Redskins by 212 yards and averaged 2.2 more yards per play. Yet, they made a season’s worth of mistakes in all six trips to the red zone and scored just three points. I’d expect this sort of nonsense with Jameis Winston, but not with Ryan Fitzpatrick. That was one of the most frustrating betting experiences of my life.

My Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers has some legendary battles against the Seahawks in his career, but this will be the first where he won’t have to take on the Legion of Boom. The entire group is gone, its former members scattered in the wind, so Rodgers’ matchup versus Seattle is much more favorable than it has been in the past, especially considering that we just saw the Rams score 36 points on the Seahawks.

That said, things could be difficult for the Packers if they’re missing Randall Cobb again. That would mean that Davante Adams would be Rodgers’ only viable veteran receiver. This didn’t matter against the Brock Osweiler-led Dolphins, but Green Bay will likely have to engage in a shootout with Russell Wilson.

The Packers once again will attempt to establish Aaron Jones, who has fully taken over Green Bay’s starting running back job. Jones rushed for 145 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins, but Seattle’s run defense is much better than Miami’s, so Jones won’t be nearly as successful in this contest.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks may have scored 31 points against the Rams, but they had some issues on this side of the ball in that game, particularly with the interior of the offensive line, which surrendered some sacks that ruined a few drives. The inside blocking will continue to be problematic in this matchup, as the Packers, like the Rams, also have a terrific defensive front. Kenny Clark is having a Pro Bowl-caliber season, while Mike Daniels continues to play at a high level. They will dominate the trenches in this game.

That said, Wilson is still going to engineer some scoring drives. Despite all of the issues, he’s still playing at a high level, and Green Bay has some liabilities in its secondary. First-round rookie cornerback Jaire Alexander is playing out of his mind, but someone named Raven Greene is playing extensive snaps at safety in the wake of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix’s departure, and while he had a decent showing versus Miami, I imagine Wilson will be able to take advantage of him.

Like the Packers, the Seahawks have an exciting new player in the backfield performing well. That would be Rashaad Penny for Seattle, as the first-round rookie looked terrific last week. However, like the Seahawks, the Packers stuff the run well and should limit Penny and the other Seattle backs.

RECAP: I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of these Thursday night contests. They produce some very odd games. The Broncos are not 35 points better than the Cardinals in Arizona, yet that’s what the result was. The 49ers are not 31 points better than the Raiders at home, yet that’s what the result was. The Steelers are not 31 points better than the Panthers at home, yet that’s what the result was.

I don’t know what to make of this game. On one hand, Rodgers is getting points. On the other hand, Seattle has its great home-field advantage, plus Circadian rhythms to boot. The tie-breaker could come down to the injury report. It’s impossible to tell how that will look as of this writing, but at first glance, it appears as though Seattle is the healthier team.

I’ll tentatively take the Seahawks, but I may change this pick, especially if this line hits +3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Seahawks quite heavily. They’ve even done so at -3, which is why the juice is now -120 on this new number. I don’t know if the books move this to -3.5, as they could get middled on three. But I’m sticking with the Seahawks. They won’t have K.J. Wright available, but the Packers are very banged up. They’re missing two of their top three receivers, as well as some members of their defense. I’m not going to bet this game though, as I need a break from nonsensical Thursday night results.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no urge to bet this game. I would take the Seahawks though. The Packers are so banged up, plus Seattle plays well in these nationally televised night games. Plus, the sharps bet Seattle heavily at -2.5 and a bit at -3. The juice is back down to -110 across the board.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 53% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Aaron Rodgers is 85-57 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 19-15 ATS as an underdog.

Seahawks are 23-12 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.

Seahawks are 44-27 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Russell Wilson is 16-6 ATS in night games.

Russell Wilson is 14-8 ATS after a loss as long as he’s not favored by -10 or more.

Opening Line: Seahawks -2.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Packers 23
Seahawks -3 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Over 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 27, Packers 24

Carolina Panthers (6-3) at Detroit Lions (3-6)
Line: Panthers by 4.5. Total: 49.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Panthers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -3.
Sunday, Nov 18, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have three overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers have two major liabilities, and the Steelers were able to expose both last Thursday night. The first is the offensive line. Pittsburgh has a dominant defensive front that was able to push around the Carolina blockers. Cam Newton saw way more pressure than he’s used to as a result.

The Lions, conversely, can’t put heat on opposing quarterbacks outside of Ezekiel Ansah. I imagine Ansah will get to Newton on some occasions, but the Panthers don’t have to worry about anyone else.

This should mean that the Panthers will have a prolific scoring day. The Lions have an atrocious defense that just made Mitchell Trubisky look like the second coming of John Elway. Their secondary, outside of Darius Slay, is poor, while the linebacking corps is even worse. Christian McCaffrey is going to have a field day running circles around the Detroit linebackers. Meanwhile, if Slay is out again, that’ll open up all downfield opportunities for Newton.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Carolina’s other major liability is the secondary. The Panthers have poor cornerbacks outside of Donte Jackson, while the safeties aren’t very good either. Ben Roethlisberger torched the Panthers mercilessly, putting 52 points on the scoreboard.

This may have been a weakness Detroit could have exploited several weeks ago, but that’s not the case now. Not only has Golden Tate been traded, but Marvin Jones is dealing with a knee bruise as well. Given that the Lions have a short work week coming up, they may opt to keep Jones out of the lineup, giving Matthew Stafford just one viable option to work with in Kenny Golladay.

Stafford, by the way, has looked completely lost without Tate. His safety valve is gone, and he’s holding the ball a bit longer now. That’s resulted in 16 total sacks taken in the past two games. The Panthers have a stout defensive front that should put as much pressure on Stafford as the Vikings and Bears were able to generate. It would help if a running game could be established, but the Panthers are stout against ground attacks, so I wouldn’t expect much from Kerryon Johnson.

RECAP: I don’t like that we lost line value with the Panthers. The advance spread was -3, yet it’s risen to -4 even though the Panthers were blown out last Thursday night. That’s how bad Detroit has looked.

You can make a nice chunk of change fading advance line moves, but this one seems legitimate. Unfortunately, we lost value with the spread now being -4.

That said, I still like the Panthers, and I’ll consider a small bet on them if Marvin Jones is out. If the Panthers only have to worry about Golladay, it’ll be a huge boon for their struggling secondary. Plus, I have to believe that Carolina will be eager to redeem itself following a humiliating loss on national TV.

It sucks that there’s so much public action on the Panthers, but I believe the Joes have the correct side in this instance. Concerning the Lions, the rule with them is that you bet them when they’re playing bad teams, and you fail them when they’re battling good teams. Carolina obviously qualifies for the latter.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public has been betting the Panthers heavily. The sharps haven’t touched either side, which would explain why this line has moved to -4.5. It’s still available at -4 at 5Dimes, so if you want to bet Carolina, you can do so with that excellent sportsbook. As for my selection, I’m still considering a small play on Carolina. Marvin Jones continues to miss practice, so Matthew Stafford may have just one viable receiver at his disposal.

SATURDAY NOTES: Darius Slay is back for the Lions, but it’ll be very difficult for them to move the ball on the Panthers with Marvin Jones out. I think Carolina is worth a small wager, but I wouldn’t go crazy with this game because the spread is a bit inflated and the public is pounding the road favorite. With the line at -4.5, you might as well sell the half point.

FINAL THOUGHTS: First of all my apologies for the site being down all day yesterday. We were scheduled to make server upgrades, but the new server couldn’t read some code on the site, causing everything to crash. It was a nightmare. Things seem to be fine now. Anyway, I locked in -5 -105 last night, but I would’ve been better off waiting because the Panthers dropped to -4 because some sharp action came in on Detroit on Sunday morning.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Will anyone bet on Detroit? No?

Percentage of money on Carolina: 76% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Cam Newton is 24-16 ATS off a loss as long as he’s not favored by 7+.

Lions are 4-9 ATS before their Thanksgiving game since 2005.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Panthers 28, Lions 17
Panthers -5 -105 (2 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$210
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Lions 20, Panthers 19

Dallas Cowboys (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-5)
Line: Falcons by 3.5. Total: 49.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -6.
Sunday, Nov 18, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot.

The highest-bet sides were 43-40-4 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets last week:

Falcons -4

Saints -4.5

Patriots -6.5

Packers -10

Chargers -10

Vegas got slaughtered in Weeks 8 and 9. Week 10 was better, but it was not the bounce-back weekend the house was looking for…

The overall record of heavily bet teams is now 23-24-3. Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Panthers -4

Steelers -5

Texans -3

Saints -9

Titans +2

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The public is very confident right now. I’m even getting ridiculous comments below like, “Your and idiot you should only bet on the best QB!” The sportsbooks will destroy people who have this mindset. I don’t know if that’ll happen this week, but it will at some point.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: It was a tale of two road games for the Falcons the past couple of weeks. They dominated the Redskins, converting countless third downs all afternoon. They then lost to the Browns, struggling with pressure, as many third-down opportunities were disrupted by heavy heat from Cleveland’s defensive line.

There’s good reason to believe that the Falcons will perform like they did against the Redskins in this contest. They play well at home, and they happen to have some nice matchups on this side of the ball. Dallas’ secondary, outside of elite cornerback Byron Jones, is in rough shape. The Falcons normally protect well, and Dallas could be without some of its talented defensive linemen again, so Matt Ryan should have enough time in the pocket to find his dynamic weapons for big gains. Emerging tight end Austin Hooper also figures to have a nice showing once again. Zach Ertz had a prolific performance Sunday night, so Hooper should pick up where Ertz left off against Dallas’ linebacking corps, which really missed Sean Lee in that regard.

The Cowboys, however, should be able to contain Atlanta’s rushing attack. Tevin Coleman has not filled in well for Devonta Freeman for the most part, and Dallas stops the run extremely well, thanks to star rookie Leighton Vander Esch, who deserves Defensive Rookie of the Year consideration.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I had the Falcons listed as overrated on my NFL Overrated-Underrated Teams page on Monday, but then I saw the report that Deion Jones will be returning to action. I immediately flipped Atlanta to underrated.

I can’t emphasize enough how significant this development is. Jones getting injured at the beginning of the year completely derailed the Falcons’ season. He’s one of the top linebackers in the NFL, and he does everything at an extremely high level. His absence has been the reason why the Falcons have struggled against the run and have failed to defend the middle of the field. His return means these problems will be fixed, and that’s very important with an impending matchup against Ezekiel Elliott.

Elliott will still have some nice gains, but I don’t expect him to be dominant. Dak Prescott will have to do more than usual, so he’ll look in Amari Cooper’s direction very frequently once again. The problem with that is top cornerback Desmond Trufant will be able to cover Cooper well, so Prescott will have to resort to throwing to his other pedestrian options more than he’d like to.

RECAP: If Jones weren’t returning, I’d consider the Falcons for a small play. I like the idea of buying low on them and selling high on Dallas. Everyone just saw the Cowboys beat the defending Super Bowl champions on national TV, and people also lost lots of money on Atlanta in the wake of the Cleveland defeat. That is why the Cowboys are a public dog in this matchup despite the spread being 1.5 points lower than what the advance line was (-3).

However, Jones returning is a complete game-changer. He’s one of the top defensive players in the NFL, and his presence will have a profound impact on the rest of Atlanta’s season, including this game. Jones will solve most of the problems the Falcons have had defensively, which is great for them because their offense is prolific, especially at home.

And yet, despite Jones’ activation from injured reserve, this spread hasn’t moved. It’s been a stale -3 -120 this entire time. That’s insane to me. Jones is worth several points, as he’s the mind, heart and soul of Atlanta’s defense. The Falcons should be favored by six at the very least.

This is one of my top plays of the week. I love that we’re getting an underrated team versus an overrated foe with tons of line value. This is a five-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The juice on this spread keeps rising. I’m hoping to get -120 or better, but it’s -125 or higher in all books. The juice is rising because the sharps are on Atlanta, perhaps because of Tyron Smith’s back spasms. It sounds like Smith will play, but he could easily get knocked out of the game if his back stiffens. As someone who has chronic back spasms, I can tell you that this is no laughing matter!

FINAL THOUGHTS: This game is a complete disappointment. Deion Jones is inactive, as expected, and yet the line rose to -3.5 because of sharp action on the host. The pros bet -3, but not -3.5. It sucks to miss out on a key number. I’m dropping this to one unit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Cowboys are a slight public dog.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 55% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

The underdog is 81-54 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 17-11 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Falcons are 25-12 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 37 instances.

Dan Quinn is 4-8 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Falcons 30, Cowboys 16
Falcons -3.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 22, Falcons 19

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
Line: Ravens by 6.5. Total: 43.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -5.
Sunday, Nov 18, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: TBA.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. I heard back from the real e-mailer who made light of child abuse and suicide:

The attached slip is from my Week 1 Browns September NFL Pick of the Month victory.

You’d think Mo’Lester would shut up after that, but he then compared me to someone else from the NFL:

Lester is slow, so he couldn’t think of a response to this.

Meanwhile, these are from the comment board:

Seriously. Ouch. I don’t think I’ve ever had my feelings hurt that much.

(Just kidding. Grown men don’t have feelings unless they are wussies.)

Again, I’m kidding. Feelings are for children and losers. Feel free to replace “losers” with another word that contains some similar letters.

One more…

Poor Purple Bus. There’s no way he’s ever going to win.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: There’s no spread posted on this game because of Joe Flacco’s status. Flacco is dealing with an injured hip that he suffered when throwing horrible passes in the Steelers game. If he can’t go, first-round rookie Lamar Jackson will likely get the nod.

Flacco isn’t the only injured player of note on this side of the ball. The Bengals have been missing their two best linebackers, Vontaze Burfict and Nick Vigil, which is why they’ve surrendered 500 net yards in three consecutive games, becoming the first team in the Super Bowl era to do so. Vigil is the team’s best coverage linebacker, while Burfict is great at everything, so it’s no wonder that Cincinnati’s defense has regressed so much. It’ll be a huge boon for the Bengals if they were to get at least one of them back. We’ll see what the injury report says.

The Bengals are also beat up in the secondary, so if Flacco plays and happens to be 100 percent, he’ll have success throwing to his improved receiving corps. I’d have slightly less faith in Jackson being able to do so, but Jackson would be able to run circles around Cincinnati’s injury-ravaged linebacking corps. Alex Collins would benefit from this, and he already has a positive matchup to begin with. Conversely, if Flacco plays and isn’t 100 percent, and he has to battle a healed Bengals linebacking group, all bets are off.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Ravens had the No. 1 ranked defense for a while, but like the Bengals, they suffered some injuries to their linebacking corps and secondary, which worsened the stop unit as a whole. Top cornerback Marlon Humphrey missed two games and wasn’t quite himself in return to action in Week 9. Talented corner Jimmy Smith has been banged up. Top linebacker C.J. Mosley has also been playing hurt. A usually dominant Baltimore defense has struggled as a result.

The bye week came at the right time for the Ravens. Assuming all of the defensive players in question are much healthier now, Baltimore should do a number on Cincinnati’s offense. The Bengals will likely be missing A.J. Green again, so the only receiver the Ravens will need to worry about is Tyler Boyd. That won’t be a problem, so Baltimore can focus on pressuring Andy Dalton and stopping Joe Mixon.

Neither should be much of an issue for the Ravens. This is a defense that, when healthy, produced 11 sacks on Marcus Mariota. The Bengals don’t block particularly well, so Dalton will see heavy heat, much like he did last week. Joe Mixon, meanwhile, won’t have many running lanes to burst through.

RECAP: I hope we get some positive news for the Ravens’ offense in this matchup because I love what they’ll have on the defensive side of the ball. If we get either a healthy Flacco or Jackson versus a Cincinnati defense missing Burfict and Vigil, I’m going to bet several units on the Ravens. If, however, a hobbled Flacco gets the nod, I may not bet this game.

We’ll see what happens. Check back for updates, or follow me @walterfootball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still no spread on this game. It’s worth noting that former Cowboys and Redskins tight end Jean Fugett tweeted out that “word on the street” was that Joe Flacco would be out for the year. Meanwhile, Vontaze Burfict had limited practices both Wednesday and Thursday, so if he plays, that would take Cincinnati off auto-fade mode.

SATURDAY NOTES: Joe Flacco is doubtful, so it appears as though Lamar Jackson will get the nod. Here’s what I wrote about Jackson in his most extensive preseason action back in August:

Lamar Jackson played the entire first half in this game. It was his fifth appearance of the preseason, and it’s clear that he has improved since his disastrous debut in the Hall of Fame Game. Jackson converted an early fourth down by rolling out and throwing a short toss. It was a bit behind his target, but he was still able to move the chains. He was more precise later in the drive, fitting a ball into a tight window to Breshad Perriman. Jackson then had a perfect throw to Mark Andrews down the seam. His worst moment occurred when it appeared as though rookie Adonis Alexander picked him off on a shot to the end zone. Part of the problem was Perriman, who didn’t fight to break up the interception. Fortunately for the Ravens, replay review showed that the ball hit the ground.

Jackson finished 9-of-15 for 109 yards to go along with three scrambles for 25 rushing yards and a touchdown. He still has a long way to go, but the improvement he has shown is crucial.

We’ll see if Jackson is announced as the starter, and if Vontaze Burfict is able to play. I’ll have an official pick Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Joe Flacco is out, so Lamar Jackson will start. A.J. Green is out, as expected. The most significant news is that Vontaze Burfict is back. Cincinnati’s defense will be much better this week with Burfict back on the field, so I’m going to side with the Bengals.

The Psychology. Edge: TBA.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
Slight lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 63% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Bengals have won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Bengals are 42-25 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Ravens are 23-12 ATS in November home games since 2000.

John Harbaugh is 8-2 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: .

Opening Total: .

Weather: Cloudy, 45 degrees.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Ravens 20, Bengals 16
Bengals +6.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 24, Bengals 21

Tennessee Titans (5-4) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
Line: Colts by 2. Total: 49.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -3 -120.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -1.
Sunday, Nov 18, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Say what you want about my NFL picks, but at least I’m not as inaccurate as Madden. The great video game franchise simulated Week 9, and the results were, well, interesting…

Wow, look at that. The Redskins blew out the Falcons. The Packers crushed the Patriots! The Lions destroyed the Vikings!! The Buccaneers upset the Panthers!!! THE BROWNS TOOK DOWN THE CHIEFS! THE BILLS DESTROYED THE BEARS!!!!! THE COWBOYS AND TITANS TIED!!!!!!!!

The next time someone calls my picks horrible, I’m just going to point them to this.

2. Something hit me during the previous Sunday night game. After Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth talked right before kickoff, they went to the pre-game song by Carrie Underwear, or whatever her name is. Carrie Underwear then sang her song after Michaels said, “First, let’s hear Carrie Underwear.”

I thought to myself, “NBC has a pretty good announcing crew with Michaels, Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya and Carrie Underwe… wait a second, Carrie Underwear is not part of the broadcasting crew!”

Maybe I was just being slow, but I’ve always considered Carrie Underwear to be part of the NBC broadcasting crew. Of course, I knew she wasn’t a broadcaster, but because she always sings before the game, I always subconsciously grouped her with the other three.

I think this is an outrage, personally. Pre-game songs have no use unless they’re iconic like Are You Ready For Some Football? tune on Monday Night Football. I believe that if Carrie Underwear wants to sing a song prior to the Sunday night game, she should also serve as a sideline reporter. I don’t know what insightful things she would ask, but it’s not like most sideline reporters say anything of relevance. Very few are good, while most are useless. Carrie Underwear holding a microphone to a player’s face and asking, “How do you feel about tonight’s win?” would at least relieve my sanity.

3. Long-time reader Zack D. wrote a poem about Al Davis and Hue Jackson in Shel Silverstein fashion. I thought everyone would enjoy it, so here it is.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It’s amazing that the Titans were able to limit the Patriots to just 10 points last week. Well, maybe sort of amazing. The Patriots had offensive line woes throughout the game. Guard Shaq Mason was ruled out beforehand, while left tackle Trent Brown was on and off the field with some sort of illness. New England’s discombobulated offensive line forced tons of pressures on Tom Brady. Tennessee perfectly exposed these liabilities with well-timed blitzes, frustrating Brady all afternoon.

I don’t see the Titans being able to pull the same stunts against the Colts. Indianapolis has long been criticized for failing to protect Andrew Luck, but it finally has a dominant blocking unit. The Colts actually happen to have one of the league’s best offensive lines. They have zero liabilities up front, so they should be able to fend off the Tennessee blitzers and give Luck enough time to engineer numerous scoring drives.

The Titans don’t have many weak spots on their defense, but one happens to be Malcolm Butler. Brady didn’t have enough time in the pocket to torch his former teammate, but Luck will have that luxury.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: It’s hard to believe that the Marcus Mariota we saw dissect the Patriots last weekend was the same quarterback who took 11 sacks against the Ravens. It didn’t seem like Tennessee was very focused in that Baltimore game, and All-Pro left tackle Taylor Lewan was banged up heading into that contest. Since Lewan’s health improved, the Titans have been much better offensively. Mariota seemed to take the next step versus New England, beating the Patriots with his arm rather than his legs.

The Patriots were extremely worried about Mariota’s scrambles, but I don’t think the Colts need to be. Rookie linebacker Darius Leonard has been terrific thus far as a pro, and he’ll be able to chase down Mariota if the mustachioed quarterback scrambles. Leonard and the other linebackers will also make sure that Dion Lewis doesn’t have a monstrous game as a receiving threat out of the backfield.

It’s not all rosy for the Colts’ defense, as they are susceptible to big passing plays because of their weak cornerbacks. Corey Davis came alive last week, abusing New England’s Stephon Gilmore. The Colts don’t have a corner of Gilmore’s caliber, but then again, there’s no guarantee that Davis has as dominant of a performance again, as his young career has been marred by inconsistency.

RECAP: The advance spread on this game was Colts -3 -120, so nearly -3.5. Yet, the line has fallen to -2 even though Indianapolis beat Jacksonville. The reason for this, of course, is Tennessee’s upset victory over the Patriots.

I generally like the Titans and have been calling them underrated since they suffered 11 sacks versus Baltimore. However, they’re edging toward overrated territory now. They’re not 24 points better than the Patriots at home. They caught the Patriots on a day in which New England had severe offensive line issues. The Patriots also didn’t seem to put forth their “A” effort in that game. Conversely, the Titans had an A+ showing, as they threw the kitchen sink at New England.

I expect the Titans to be flat in this game. They’re not favored, technically, but they effectively are, given that they are such massive public dogs. Everyone on the pre-game shows will be picking Tennessee to win even though Indianapolis is favored.

I love the Colts, and I’m going to bet them for five units. I like how their offensive line can nullify Tennessee’s great defensive front, and I love the line value we’re getting with the home “underdog.” Going from -3 -120/-3.5 +100 to -2 is a huge deal, especially when fading a team coming off its “Super Bowl” type victory.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line continues to shrink, as it’s down to Colts -1.5. We’ll be able to get a good deal on a number like -2 or -2.5 soon (currently -2 -102 at Bookmaker). The public is all over the Titans, which is not surprising at all because it’s an overreaction to the win over New England.

SATURDAY NOTES: Indianapolis’ injury report looks good, so the five-unit wager holds up. The best number I can find is -2 -105 at 5Dimes.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has continued to drop with public action coming in on the Titans. The sharps haven’t touched this game, which is shocking to me.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

The Titans are coming off a huge statement victory over the Patriots.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
The Titans are a big-time public dog.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 62% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 24 of the last 29 meetings.

Andrew Luck is 25-14 ATS at home.

Andrew Luck is 16-8 ATS against divisional opponents.

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Colts 34, Titans 27
Colts -2 -105 (5 Units) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$500
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 38, Titans 10

Houston Texans (6-3) at Washington Redskins (6-3)
Line: Texans by 3. Total: 41.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -1.
Sunday, Nov 18, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. The college football rankings heading into this week weren’t a surprise. Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Michigan seems very reasonable, and Georgia would definitely take over for Michigan in the event that it beats Alabama in the SEC Championship. I don’t think anyone would dispute that. The Tide would still have to be included, as they happen to be a better team than Michigan. Both teams would have one loss, so I don’t see why the Wolverines would be slotted higher than Alabama. The NCAA could always expand to eight teams, but we all know how slow they are to change. It took 150 years to get a proper four-team playoff!

There’s one embarrassing aspect of the playoff rankings, and that would be Central Florida at No. 12. I didn’t expect the defending co-national champion Golden Knights to be rated highly, or anything, but how could it be that they were one spot below two-loss Kentucky last week? That makes absolutely no sense to me, and it seems completely unjust.

If you were to tell me that in the event that the top seven teams in college football disbanded in the wake of some sort of tragedy, the fourth team in the college football playoff, joining Washington State, West Virginia and Ohio State would be Kentucky, and not Central Florida, I’d be irate. Really? The NCAA would put a two-loss Kentucky squad into the field rather than an undefeated team? How is that remotely fair?

I’ve said it countless times, and I’ll say it again: If the NCAA doesn’t give teams like Central Florida a legitimate chance to reach the playoffs, they should just drop them into the 1-AA ranks. There is no point in having Central Florida in 1-A if it can’t compete for a playoff spot as a 2-year undefeated program.

2. One team nowhere close to the college football playoff would be Kansas, yet the Jayhawks were in the news because former LSU head coach Les Miles has expressed interest in coaching there.

Almost every single response on Twitter was negative about this. Here are some examples:

For LSU, it was a no-brainer for them to get rid of Miles. Les Miles, More Saban. But I always thought Miles was unjustly compared to Nick Saban. He’s the best college football coach of our era, maybe even of all time, so LSU fans expecting Miles to replicate what Saban accomplished was foolish.

However, the expectations at Kansas aren’t very high. Miles always had LSU competitive, and I think he could make the Jayhawks respectable, at the very least. That’s all Kansas is looking for right now, anyway. They’re completely irrelevant, but Miles will have them playing in bowl games most years. He won’t win a championship there, and everyone knows that, yet I think that’s what these Twitter people are implying. It’s a dumb mindset to have. Like, really. “Hurr durr Les Miles won’t win a championship in Kansas.” No s**t, Sherlock. But what he can do is have them win seven or so games most years, and that’s great for Kansas.

3. The Ole Miss-Texas A&M game was the worst. Ole Miss led for most of the afternoon, yet didn’t cover the 13-point spread because their idiot kicker missed a 22-yard field goal. I’m so sick of losing to these pubeless idiots every week.

Making matters worse, the officiating was atrocious. The officials missed a roughing-the-punter penalty where an A&M player crashed into the plant leg of an Ole Miss punter, who was irate. The refs later negated a block in the back on an Ole Miss scoop-and-score for some reason, then ejected a Rebel player for a targeting hit where he clearly blocked a player with his shoulder. This made me say aloud, “God, football is turning into such a pu**y sport.”

Then, it dawned on me that the officials in this game were just horrible. That was apparent during a punt. Ole Miss gave the ball away to Texas A&M. The Aggie player muffed the punt, but recovered it. The officials threw a flag, and I just assumed it was a block in the back of sorts, so I went downstairs to rinse out my cereal bowl (Cocoa Puffs, for those wondering.) My wife was down there and asked me to sign something, then we talked for a bit. I went back upstairs, and the officials were STILL discussing the penalty!

The CBS announcers noted how ridiculous this was as well. One of them said something like, “This is either the most complicated play in football history, or they’re talking about what to gift for one of their daughters’ weddings.”

The other announcer chimed in, “The answer is always candlesticks!” The first guy laughed.

I did not laugh. Instead, I yelled at the TV.

“Not f***ing candlesticks, a**holes!” Give money! Always give money!”

For anyone reading this about to attend a wedding, take it from me, as I got married nearly six months ago. No one wants f***ing candlesticks. Just give money because weddings are expensive as hell.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins’ offensive line woes have been well documented. They’re missing their starting left tackle and both guards. They struggled to generate many successful drives against the Buccaneers as a result, and they were outgained by more than 200 net yards. Yet, they won by 13 points because the Buccaneers played the dumbest football you’ll ever see.

It seems as though the Texans might have great matchups across the board, as J.J. Watt will be able to dominate backup left guard Jonathan Cooper, while Whitney Mercilus will win matchups against reserve right guard Tony Bergstrom. However, Jadeveon Clowney won’t have as much success beating the second-string left tackle, as Ty Nsekhe is one of the best backup blind-side protectors in the NFL. Clowney will get some wins, but he won’t have the best game of his career, or anything.

That said, the Texans still have a big advantage in the trenches on this side of the ball. They’ll put the clamps on Adrian Peterson and place lots of pressure on Smith in long-yardage situations. However, Smith will be able to release the ball quickly to Chris Thompson (if he plays) and Jordan Reed, both of whom have some nice matchups against a linebacking corps that hasn’t been all that great this year.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Much like the Texans, Washington will be able to dominate in the trenches on this side of the ball. The difference is that the Redskins have huge edges everywhere. Houston’s entire offensive line sucks, while Washington has a tremendous defensive front. The “Bama Boys” will destroy the Texans’ interior, while Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith will provide heavy heat from the edge.

Deshaun Watson won’t have much time to throw, and making matters worse, he’s down his deep threat receiver. The Texans were able to replace the injured Will Fuller with Demaryius Thomas, but Thomas is a different sort of player. He’s also not as good as Fuller at this stage of his career, and he’s still learning the offense. Watson will move the chains with throws to DeAndre Hopkins, of course, but because of the poor protection, this will all be inconsistent.

The Texans won’t be able to run effectively either, as the mediocre Lamar Miller won’t find adequate holes to burst through. Miller’s struggles are part of the reason why the Texans have been so poor in the red zone this year. Much like the Buccaneers last week, Houston is likely to make several blunders deep in enemy territory.

RECAP: I thought it was a bit odd that the Texans were one-point road favorites on the advance spread. Now, they’re three-point favorites in Washington!

Uhh… why? I can’t figure this out, and it’s not like this is a trap, as the public is pounding Houston like crazy. I don’t get it. What have the Texans done this year besides beat bad teams to deserve to be field-goal favorites on the road versus a competent opponent? Houston’s wins this year have come against the Colts, Cowboys, Bills, Jaguars, Dolphins and Broncos. None of those teams have winning records.

And yes, the Redskins are competent. Their offensive line is in shambles, but they still have a great defense and a smart quarterback who can manage the game well. They also have the better coaching staff, as Bill O’Brien is terrible. He’s been extremely lucky this year, and this is coming from someone who has a 22/1 ticket on the Texans to win the Super Bowl!

Something else to consider: The Texans have a battle against the Titans next Monday night. This game doesn’t matter nearly as much as that one, so there could be a look-ahead factor.

I wish Washington’s offensive line were in better shape, but the Redskins still seem like a great play. This will be a four-unit pick.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If you’re fading the Redskins because of their offensive line woes, I would keep in mind that even when considering the injuries, Washington still has a better blocking unit than Houston. And like the Texans, the Redskins have a great front that can take advantage of this liability. I love the Redskins getting three points of home, especially with all of the public action coming in on Houston.

SATURDAY NOTES: No Jamison Crowder, no Chris Thompson. That’s a bummer for the Redskins, but I still think they’re worth a big play. They should not be field-goal home underdogs against a very overrated Houston squad that will be looking ahead to its Monday night battle against Tennessee next week. I’m hoping to see +3 -110 somewhere, but the best number is +3 -115 at Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was waiting for a +3 -110 last night. The wait was worth it because this spread is +3 -105 in most books and +3 +100 at Bovada! The Redskins at +3 +100 seem like a great play against the overrated Texans.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

The Texans have a Monday night battle against the Titans after this.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Lots of action coming in on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 69% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Cloudy, 44 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Redskins 20, Texans 17
Redskins +3 +100 (4 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$400
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 23, Redskins 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) at New York Giants (2-7)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 53.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Giants -3.
Sunday, Nov 18, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: There can’t have been many teams to generate 490-plus yards of offense and score three or fewer points in NFL history, right? I just had to look it up. I did so in the KillerSports.com SDQL database, using the query, “TY > 490 and points < 4." Want to know what came up? Only Tampa's loss to Washington! That's right, the Buccaneers are the only team in NFL history, dating back to 1989, to accumulate 490-plus yards of offense and score three or fewer points.

So, that got me thinking: Have any teams gotten 490-plus yards and gotten single digits (including 4-9 points?) The answer is no! The Buccaneers are the only team since at least 1989 to have such a low scoring output with that many yards. I kept increasing the point total parameter, and it turns out that there were two teams, the 2010 Broncos and the 2012 Chiefs, to score 13 points and get 490-plus yards of offense.

I’m sorry if you’re not a stat geek like me, but this is unbelievable. It’s amazing how incompetent the Buccaneers were in the red zone last week despite being so prolific in between the 20s. The point of this is that Tampa can’t be trusted. They have some great matchups versus the Giants’ linebacking corps and secondary – Nick Mullens looked great Monday night! – and New York doesn’t stop the run nearly as well anymore in the wake of the Snacks Harrison trade. The Buccaneers will have great success in between the 20s, but they’ll likely screw up in the red zone once again.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of great matchups, I shudder to think what Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram will do against Tampa’s back seven. The Buccaneers’ linebackers, aside from Lavonte David, can’t cover anyone, while the cornerbacks have been burnt to a crisp this year against worse weapons than the Giants possess.

Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley figures to have a big game. The Buccaneers stop the run effectively, but they don’t cover pass-catching running backs well. Tampa has people named Adarius Taylor and Devante Bond seeing way too many snaps at linebacker to contain Barkley as a receiving threat.

The one hope the Buccaneers have is to rattle Eli Manning. The 49ers failed to do so, especially on the final drive where they couldn’t put any pressure on Manning, but the Buccaneers have Gerald McCoy and Jason Pierre-Paul to place some heat on the decaying signal-caller.

RECAP: I can’t find an angle I like in this game. Both teams suck, and there’s no psychological factor, key injury or great line value to take advantage of. This will be a non-wager for me.

I had trouble even deciding which team to pick outright. I think I’ve decided on the Buccaneers. The Giants are coming off a win, and bad teams tend to handle success poorly. Also, bad teams tend to struggle at home because they don’t have the support of the crowd behind them.

I may change my mind when I see the injury reports, but I’m on Tampa for now.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Lavonte David will be out. With that in mind, I’m switching sides. Tampa’s linebacking corps was already bad, but David’s absence will take it to a whole new low. I have no idea how the Buccaneers are going to stop Saquon Barkley with practice squad-caliber linebackers. I’d even bet on the Giants, but I’m concerned that they’ll be a no-show.

SATURDAY NOTES: I wish I could trust the Giants. They have a great matchup against Tampa’s horrible linebacking corps, and the line is short of what it should be. However, I just can’t trust them to show up.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been all over the Giants, pushing this line up to -3. Good for them for trusting the Giants to show up. I wish I could. I would have loved them, given the matchup against Tampa’s completely banged-up linebacking corps.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
Slight lean on the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 64% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 87-55 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 4-9 ATS as road favorites since 2004. ???

Opening Line: Giants -2.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 44 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Giants 23, Buccaneers 20
Giants -3 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 53 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Giants 38, Buccaneers 35

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)
Line: Steelers by 6. Total: 47.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -2.5.
Sunday, Nov 18, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

Video of the Week: Here’s another video compilation of how stupid people are in California:

I think one of the comments said it best: “We are doomed.”

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I thought the Jaguars would regress this year for a couple of reasons. One was that they were so reliant on their defense. Jacksonville’s stop unit was terrific in 2017, but that didn’t mean the same thing would happen this year. All it would take would be for two or three of the eight or so key players to regress and/or suffer injuries, and that’s exactly what has happened. Jacksonville’s secondary hasn’t been healthy since the beginning of the season. Jalen Ramsey has played, but he hasn’t been as dominant this year.

That has to be music to Ben Roethlisberger’s ears. If A.J. Bouye sits out another game, Roethlisberger will be able to exploit a huge liability in Jacksonville’s secondary, which already has a problem at safety because Barry Church has been struggling. Meanwhile, Ramsey won’t be able to clamp down on Antonio Brown, so all options will be open for the red-hot Roethlisberger.

The one question is the running game. Jacksonville stops ground attacks well, and James Conner may not be available because of a concussion. Conner has been a godsend for the Steelers this year in the wake of Le’Veon Bell’s senseless holdout (he was offered a very fair contract, but passed on it.) If Conner sits out, it’ll be a huge boost for the Jaguars’ chances, as they won’t have to worry about the rushing aspect of Pittsburgh’s offense.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Injuries have extended to this side of the ball for the Jaguars as well. Leonard Fournette missed a huge chunk of action this season. He finally returned last week, only to see center Brandon Linder suffer a season-ending knee injury. Many may not know Linder, but he’s one of the top centers in the NFL. He certainly was Jacksonville’s best blocker, so without him, as well as the top two left tackles on the roster, the Jaguars suddenly have one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

I don’t have to tell you that this is going to be a huge problem moving forward, especially against teams with stellar defensive lines. The Steelers happen to possess one of those, as Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt should have no problem crashing into the interior of the backfield. Meanwhile, T.J. Watt will put tons of pressure on Blake Bortles.

It’ll be difficult for the Jaguars to open up quality running lanes for Fournette. I imagine Fournette will have a nice gain or two, but he’ll be limited for the most part. That’ll force Bortles into converting too many third downs. Bortles will need a heroic performance, much like the one he put together against the Steelers in the divisional round of the playoffs last year. The difference is that Jacksonville’s blocking was so much better in January. Thus, I don’t have much faith in Bortles.

RECAP: I love fading teams coming off dominant performances on national TV. Think back to the Rams when they had such an impressive showing against the Vikings on Thursday Night Football. They’ve covered the spread once since! The public falls in love with what it sees, and casual bettors saw the Steelers crush the previously 6-2 Panthers. That would explain the extreme line movement. The advance spread on this game was Pittsburgh -3. Now, it’s -6 (at Bovada for -115.)

Three points of movement is often unwarranted, and Pittsburgh is now favored by too many points. Also, this is the sort of game the Steelers sleepwalk through. They’ve historically been putrid as large road favorites, especially following a victory. I expect them to be flat, even though this is a revenge game for the playoff loss. I don’t think Pittsburgh really respects a 3-6 team.

I’d normally fade the Steelers with a huge bet. The problem here, however, is that the Jaguars are so beat up. They’re missing two offensive linemen, and one of their starting corners could be out. That’s a bummer, as the Jaguars would ordinarily be a great play.

I’m still going to take the Jaguars for a couple of units, pending the injury report. I expect the Steelers to put forth a C- or “D” effort here, winning a sleepy road game by three points, as they are wont to do.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looks like A.J. Bouye will be back in the lineup, which is a huge boon for Jacksonville. The Jaguars haven’t had a healthy secondary since Week 2, so that’ll help against the Steelers. I’m still worried about Jacksonville’s offensive line, so I wouldn’t go crazy with this pick. However, I still think two units on the home dog makes the most sense.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Steelers won’t have Stephon Tuitt, so they won’t be able to fully take advantage of the injuries the Jaguars have on their defensive line. Tuitt’s absence also means that the Jaguars will be able to run the ball more effectively with Leonard Fournette. I like Jacksonville quite a bit here, so I’m going to increase the unit count to three. I’m in for paying the extra 15 cents for +6 at Bovada.

FINAL THOUGHTS: JuJu Smith-Schuster showed up to the stadium wearing a Jaguar suit, but that hasn’t scared off the sharps, who pounded Jacksonville heavily on Sunday morning, dropping the line to +4. I’m glad I was able to get +6 -115 last night, and I’m still confident in the Jaguars for three units.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

This seems like a typical low-effort game for the Steelers.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Surprise, surprise, everyone is betting on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 67% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Steelers are 24-37 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Steelers are 12-26 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.

Mike Tomlin is 9-21 ATS as a favorite after a win of 14+ in the regular season unless a bye is coming up.

Jaguars are 38-71 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Steelers -5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 74 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Jaguars 20
Jaguars +6 -115 (3 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$300
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 20, Jaguars 16

Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games
Oakland at Arizona, Denver at LA Chargers, Philadelphia at New Orleans, Minnesota at Chicago, Kansas City at LA Rams

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)