NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2018



NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,415)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$510)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2018): 5-8 (-$1,445)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2018): 5-8-1 (-$735)

NFL Picks (2018): 82-80-7 (-$875)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 18, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 11 NFL Picks - Early Games








Denver Broncos (3-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-2)
Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 46.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -6.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Chargers -7.
Sunday, Nov 18, 4:05 PM


The Game. Edge: Chargers.

Two years ago, on the Adventures of Tom Brady's Haircuts, Tom Brady was elected as the President of the United States, as it was revealed that he was the only candidate running because both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were figments of his imagination. He followed that up by stopping Vladimir Putin from hacking the NFL. In doing so, however, Tom Brady was stuck in an evil dimension, and his evil counterpart has come into our world. No one is aware that Tom Brady is now Evil Tom Brady, which is great for Evil Tom Brady because he can begin devastating the world...



To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady's Haircuts!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Broncos are regarded by some to boast one of the best defenses in the NFL. While they have some special players on their stop unit, they also have several weaknesses. They struggle mightily against running backs, both in terms of stopping the run and keeping pass-catching backs from getting big gains. With that in mind, they're going to have a big problem keeping Melvin Gordon in check.

Gordon has been enjoying a fantastic season, and that will continue against the Broncos. Gordon's big-play ability will open things up for Philip Rivers, who will need to look toward other options than Keenan Allen in this game. The Broncos have a terrific cornerback in Chris Harris, who should do a decent job on Allen. In two games against the Broncos last year, Allen failed to top 41 receiving yards in each contest.

Luckily for Rivers, he has other viable targets at his disposal. In addition to Gordon, he'll be able to hook up with Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams, as both have positive matchups against the rest of Denver's secondary, which is pretty pedestrian outside of Harris.

DENVER OFFENSE: Both teams have suffered devastating injuries on this side of the ball in their previous games. For Denver, center Matt Paradis was lost for the year. That forced the Broncos to move guard Connor McGovern to center and someone named Elijah Wilkinson to right guard. This sounds bad, but Wilkinson was impressive in the Week 9 battle against the Texans. Wilkinson made the team as a formerly undrafted player with solid showings in the preseason, so it was nice to see that translate to real action. Wilkinson will have a tough test this week against Corey Liuget, but if he can hold up, Denver may believe that it found itself a new starting guard.

The Chargers, meanwhile, lost Denzel Perryman for the year. This is horrible news. Perryman was the Chargers' do-it-all linebacker. He was great in all facets, and he'll sorely be missed. In the wake of his absence, the Chargers will be far worse while trying to stop the run and defend pass-catching running backs. Philip Lindsay should have a big game as a result.

Case Keenum will need Lindsay to break through for big gains. The Chargers will be able to handle Emmanuel Sanders with the combined effort of Casey Hayward and Desmond King. Courtland Sutton has a favorable matchup, so he'll need to step up. The same can be said for tight end Jeff Heuerman, who had a breakout performance prior to the bye. The Chargers will be worse against tight ends in the wake of Perryman's injury, so Heuerman should perform well.

RECAP: I'm confused as to why this spread is only -7. That's what I made it, but I figured that because the public is so enamored with the Chargers, they'd be favored by 9.5 or even 10. Yet, the line is only -7, which is baiting the public into pounding San Angeles pretty heavily.

This seems like a trap to me. The Broncos tend to play close games, only losing twice by a touchdown or more, and one was a no-show versus the Jets following an emotional game versus the Chiefs. The Broncos will very much be fighting for their playoff lives in this game, and they'll given an "A" effort here versus a Charger team that just lost one of its best defensive players.

If Wilkinson and McGovern can hold up in the interior of the Denver offensive line, the Broncos might be able to cover this spread. It's worth noting that Denver has perennially sucked on the road under Vance Joseph, but Keenum has a better chance of throwing a back-door touchdown than Trevor Siemian or Brock Osweiler did last year.

I'm not crazy about the Broncos here, but I'm willing to bet a unit on them in the wake of the Perryman injury. I'd say the line should have moved down once it was announced that Perryman would be out for the year, but the spread was already suspiciously low to begin with.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Joey Bosa is practicing and could play this week, which would be huge for the Chargers, especially in the wake of Denzel Perryman's injury. The Broncos don't have a quality offensive line, so Bosa would make a huge impact. Then again, he may not see many snaps in his first game back. I may remove the unit I currently have penciled in for this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chargers may have Joey Bosa available, while the Broncos lost guard Max Garcia to a season-ending injury. This could really allow the Chargers to control the line of scrimmage. In fact, I'm going to switch sides.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Joey Bosa is going to play some snaps in this game, which is horrible news for a Denver team that is down three starting offensive linemen.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm not going to bet this game, but I'm fine with my pick change, as Denver's offensive line could have some serious problems blocking the Chargers.




The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
I'm surprised there's not even more action on the Chargers.
  • Percentage of money on San Angeles: 67% (18,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • History: Broncos have won 11 of the last 14 meetings.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -7.
  • Opening Total: 47.
  • Weather: Sunny, 73 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 11 NFL Pick: Chargers 30, Broncos 20
    Chargers -7 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Over 46.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Broncos 23, Chargers 22






    Oakland Raiders (1-8) at Arizona Cardinals (2-7)
    Line: Cardinals by 4.5. Total: 41.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -3.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Cardinals -4.5.
    Sunday, Nov 18, 4:05 PM


    The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

    If you're unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers' articles have gotten more than 3,000 views, so if you want to get your opinion heard, here's a great way for you to do so!

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    Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2018 NFL Survivor Pool. You have until Sunday to register, so do it soon! Of the 1,225 starting players, we lost 723 because of the Saints and Lions. The Vikings then knocked out a bunch of people, and we're down to just 24 souls remaining because of Dallas' loss to Tennessee on Monday night.

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    ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals hung tough with the Chiefs last week. Granted, they needed Kansas City to be very sloppy, and they required the officials to negate a Tyreek Hill touchdown with a mysterious penalty, but Arizona kept the margin to within single digits at one point in the second half, which has to be considered a win.

    The Cardinals ultimately failed to pull the upset because their offensive line couldn't hold up. Josh Rosen was pressured far too often. The Chiefs don't do many things well defensively, but they can at least apply tons of pressure with Justin Houston, Dee Ford and Chris Jones. The Raiders, conversely, cannot do this. That's the biggest factor here, as Rosen will have way more time in the pocket this week. I imagine he'll be able to connect with Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk for several significant gains.

    Meanwhile, David Johnson should continue to play well. New offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich has done a much better job of utilizing Johnson than his predecessor. Johnson had a strong outing versus the Chiefs, and he has an even better matchup this week against the Raiders and their pathetic linebacking corps. Johnson will be a huge threat as a receiver out of the backfield.

    OAKLAND OFFENSE: I noted that the Cardinals needed the Chiefs' sloppiness and some horrible officiating to keep the game close, but their defense played a huge part. The stop unit did some things extremely well, which included putting heavy heat on Patrick Mahomes on third-down throws in the red zone. The Chiefs don't even have a bad offensive line, yet Arizona's front was able to hound Mahomes. The Raiders, conversely, have some liabilities up front. Right tackle Brandon Parker is a human turnstile, while left guard Kelechi Osemele is clearly not anywhere close to being healthy. These are some weaknesses I expect Arizona to expose.

    Another positive for Arizona's defense was its ability to clamp down on both Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce. Hunt was limited to just 71 yards on 16 carries with two receptions for 25 receiving yards. Kelce caught six balls for only 46 yards. The Cardinals have a solid linebacking corps that defends the middle of the field well, so this wasn't a big surprise. With that in mind, the Cardinals should be able to keep Jared Cook in check. This is significant for Derek Carr, as Cook is his primary target.

    The weakness of Arizona's stop unit is the secondary outside of Patrick Peterson. The problem for the Raiders is that they don't have the viable receiving threats to take advantage of that. Peterson will lock down Jordy Nelson's corpse, forcing Carr to throw to the likes of Brandon LaFell and Seth Roberts, all while constantly being under siege. This is not a recipe for success.

    RECAP: I don't want to pick the Cardinals as four-point favorites. However, I don't want to pick the Raiders at all. What a miserable game!

    I'm going to take the Cardinals as a non-wager, as I think there's a better chance they show up. They're at least playing for something - Rosen's development - while the Raiders could quit. They actually put forth a good effort against the Chargers, so they may not show up two weeks in a row.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If I had any faith in the Raiders, I'd bet several units on them, as this spread, now +5.5, is way higher than the advance line of +3. However, Oakland is a team that has quit on its coach and quarterback, and could very easily not put forth any effort into this game.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Raiders will be missing their top receivers, and really top three if you count Amari Cooper. Derek Carr is going to be throwing to replacement-level players against an Arizona defense that has gotten better lately. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they could be down a couple of offensive linemen, as D.J. Humphries is questionable after practicing just once all week.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There's some strange sharp money coming in on the Raiders recently. I'm actually thinking about betting the Cardinals, especially if this line continues to fall.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: A bit of sharp action on Oakland moved this line from +5.5 to +4.5, but that was it. Big money would've moved this line down to +4, but that didn't happen. I don't like that the Cardinals will be missing their left tackle, but I think they're worth a one-unit bet, given all the issues Oakland has going on. I think it's worth it to sell a point (on 5Dimes), as this game is unlikely to land on five.




    The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.
    The Raiders could easily be a no-show after a hard-fought battle against the Chargers.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Arizona: 55% (14,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Cardinals -4.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 11 NFL Pick: Cardinals 20, Raiders 13
    Cardinals -5.5 +100 (1 Unit) - 5Dimes -- Incorrect; -$100
    Under 41 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Raiders 23, Cardinals 21




    Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) at New Orleans Saints (8-1)
    Line: Saints by 7.5. Total: 56.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -6.5.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Saints -7.5.
    Sunday, Nov 18, 4:25 PM


    The Game. Edge: Saints.

    Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is underway! In Episode 10, Emmitt tries to find help to destroy the statues. Meanwhile, the Patriots have to play without a quarterback.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is the Jerks of the Zombie Circus.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Eagles picked the wrong time of year to have injuries at cornerback. They were missing Jalen Mills and Sidney Jones heading into the Dallas game and had a bit of trouble stopping Dak Prescott, and that was before Ronald Darby left the field. Darby, as it turns out, tore his ACL, which really complicates matters in Philadelphia's secondary.

    Darby's presence at least gave the Eagles a chance to slow down Michael Thomas a bit. He's gone, however, so Thomas could have one of his best performances of the year, and that's saying a lot because Thomas has been absolutely dominant this year. The only thing the Eagles can do to negate this is to put tons of pressure on Drew Brees, but that's a difficult task because Brees is extremely well protected and releases passes extremely quickly anyway. There's a reason why Brees has taken single-digit sacks this year, so I don't see Philadelphia rattling him very much, though it'll definitely help if left tackle Terron Armstead misses this game. Armstead left in the first half last week with a shoulder injury.

    Weeks ago, I would've said the Eagles could at least contain the Saints' two dynamic running backs, but we just saw Ezekiel Elliott trample Philadelphia for 151 yards on just 19 carries. It seems as though the aging Haloti Ngata has completely worn down, and the Eagles certainly miss Timmy Jernigan. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram both should have big games on the ground versus Philadelphia's defense, though the solid linebackers should at least prevent Kamara from having a big receiving afternoon.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles traded for Golden Tate, but still have some major problems on this side of the ball. Most of those concern the offensive line. Right tackle Lane Johnson missed Sunday night's game, so it's unknown if he'll be able to suit up for this contest. Even if he does, it doesn't sound like he'll be 100 percent. Left tackle Jason Peters isn't healthy either. This is horrible news against the Saints. New Orleans doesn't do everything well on this side of the ball, but they happen to boast a terrific pass rush. They'll pressure Carson Wentz heavily, which could force a turnover, just like we saw versus Dallas.

    Wentz will have some successful-looking drives, as the Saints have issues at cornerback outside of Marshon Lattimore. They have severe issues defending slot receivers, so Tate could have a nice performance, as should Zach Ertz. However, the question is how the Eagles will produce in the red zone. This has been an enormous issue for them all year. They've settled for too many threes instead of sevens throughout the year. However, a glimmer of hope is that the Saints are 28th in red-zone defense, so perhaps Philadelphia will get some sevens after all.

    It would help if the Eagles had a running game, but that's been a problem for them since Jay Ajayi suffered a season-ending injury. Undrafted rookie Josh Adams has looked better than the other backs, and Doug Pederson said he would receive more work going forward. However, the Saints stop the run very well, so I don't see the Eagles having much success on the ground in this game.

    RECAP: I'd love the Eagles here if their secondary was healthy. Instead, Darby is out, and Philadelphia could be without two other cornerbacks as well. Again, this is an awful circumstance against Brees, who is playing some of the best football of his career.

    However, this spread is just too high for someone of Wentz's caliber. Despite the Eagles' struggles this year, they have yet to lose by more than a touchdown. Their losses have been by: 6, 3, 2, 4 and 7. Granted, none of their opponents have been as great as the Saints, but Wentz is way too good to be getting this many points.

    Besides, we may not be getting the Saints' best effort here. Everyone on TV thought last week was New Orleans' trap game, but I didn't think that was the case. I think this has more of a chance to be a trap. The Saints have to play against the arch-rival Falcons four days after this game, while the Eagles will be fighting for their playoff lives.

    I'm going to be betting on the Eagles, though I'm unsure about the unit count for now. It depends on how their injury report looks. If they get back some cornerbacks from injury, this selection will be in the range of 4-5 units. If not, it'll probably be for 2-3 units.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp action on the Eagles has taken this line down to +8. Perhaps the pros are betting the Eagles because Saints left tackle Terron Armstead will be out, or because Eagles cornerback Sidney Jones returned to practice. I don't know, but I'm still eager to see Philadelphia's final injury report before investing lots of money into the visitor.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Eagles will have one of their top three corners available, which is better than none. This is bad news, but not horrible news. Fortunately for Philadelphia, the Saints won't have left tackle Terron Armstead, which will weaken New Orleans' offense, especially against Philadelphia's great defensive line. I like the Eagles, who are getting sharp action, as a three-unit play. The best line is +8 -110 at Bovada.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps continue to bet the Eagles, dropping this line to +7.5 -120. This spread might be +7 soon.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has reached +7 in a couple of books, including CRIS, which is one of the sharpest sportsbooks out there. They've taken tons of sharp money on the Eagles, which is not a surprise. I still think Philadelphia is worth a three-unit play, especially with Lane Johnson being available.


    The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
    The Saints have to battle the arch-rival Falcons in four days. The Eagles are in do-or-die mode.


    The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
    People have abandoned Philadelphia.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 61% (33,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Eagles are 29-17 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.
  • Carson Wentz is 21-15 SU, 20-16 ATS as a starter.
  • Eagles are 3-13 ATS before playing the Giants since December 2010.
  • Drew Brees is 50-30 ATS off back-to-back wins.
  • Saints are 42-32 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Saints -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 54.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 11 NFL Pick: Saints 34, Eagles 27
    Eagles +8 (3 Units) - Bovada -- Incorrect; -$330
    Over 56.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Saints 48, Eagles 7






    Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1) at Chicago Bears (6-3)
    Line: Bears by 2.5. Total: 44.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -2.5.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Bears -4.5.
    Sunday, Nov 18, 8:20 PM


    The Game. Edge: Bears.

    I'm going to devote this section to Ross Avila. If this is your first time reading this, and you don't know who Ross is, he's a douche who harassed me on Facebook about my picks all last year. Here are some of the things he said:



    He wrote this to me during the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, where he bragged about being right about Atlanta. Oops.

    Ross constantly embarrassed himself throughout the year, including when he posted this, suggesting that he sold picks to people:



    I eventually unfriended Ross. He started going after women on my Facebook page, including my then-fiancee. I warned him, and he didn't listen, so I unfriended him.

    Because I was a big part of Ross' life, he sent me countless messages. I've shown you some already. Check this one out:



    This is from a month ago, and I'm re-posting it because this Lex bully guy actually e-mailed me, and then Ross replied about it. Here were Lex's e-mails:





    Here's what Ross wrote about it:



    Buhahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: Has there been a quarterback as inconsistent as Mitchell Trubisky this year? Perhaps Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Trubisky has played every game and has seen more highs and lows. Trubisky has been dominant in some games, including last week, when he torched the Lions mercilessly. Detroit couldn't stop anything Trubisky was doing. Conversely, Trubisky's had some poor performances as well, as he's heaved plenty of inaccurate passes in those contests, thanks to his habit of throwing off his back foot.

    Trubisky didn't throw off his back foot very much in last week's victory, so perhaps that's a good sign for this game. Then again, the Vikings have a much better defense than Detroit, though they have their flaws. For example, they can't cover the middle of the field, so Tarik Cohen should have a big performance as a receiver out of the backfield. Trey Burton has a positive matchup as well. The Vikings also have some liabilities at cornerback outside of Xavier Rhodes, so perhaps Anthony Miller, who thrived last week, could have a decent outing once again.

    The Vikings, however, certainly have their defensive strengths, and it'll be interesting to see if Trubisky can overcome them. Their defensive line is terrific, thanks to Everson Griffen's return from his mental issues. They can dominate teams with poor offensive lines, but the Bears block well, so there's some hope for Trubisky. That said, Trubisky won't get much out of Jordan Howard, while Rhodes should be able to smother Allen Robinson.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings aren't the only team in this matchup that puts tons of heat on opposing quarterbacks. The Bears have a ferocious front seven, led by Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks. Like the Vikings, they've destroyed opponents that can't block well, so Minnesota's offensive line will have to hold up.

    The problem here is that unlike the Bears, the Vikings don't block well. They have plenty of weaknesses up front that Chicago will be able to expoit. The Bears stand a much better chance of dominating the trenches on this side of the ball than the Vikings do when Chicago has possession, and that could affect Kirk Cousins' performance. Cousins hasn't been nearly as inconsistent as Trubisky this year, but he's certainly had his ups and downs. Cousins will be throwing into a talented secondary that should be able to get some wins against his receivers. Adam Thielen will still post quality numbers, but nickel cornerback Byrce Callahan has done a tremendous job of locking down slot receivers all year, so his matchup against Thielen should be a fun one to watch.

    It'll all be on Cousins' shoulders, by the way, as the Vikings will struggle to run the ball. Chicago winning in the trenches also applies to the run blocking, as I don't envision consistent running lanes being there for Dalvin Cook.

    RECAP: If you poll most casual fans and bettors, I imagine they'd say the Vikings are better than the Bears. That's why the public is pounding Minnesota. Most NFL power rankings have the Vikings slightly ahead of Chicago. Not mine, however. I have Chicago higher in my NFL Power Rankings, and the two teams certainly aren't next to one another. I have Bears fifth and the Vikings 13th.

    If you think that's crazy, check out the DVOA rankings. The Bears are fourth, while Minnesota is 14th. I'm glad to see the metrics agree with me because I don't think these teams are that close. The Bears are even or better at most positions, and they have the far superior offensive line. I've been down on Minnesota all year because it can't block, which is going to be a huge problem in this game. The Bears will dominate in the trenches, and they should win this game.

    This spread can be found at -2.5 -115 at BetUS, which is an absurd number. The Bears should be favored by 4.5, at the very least, and the only reason that number isn't six is because the Vikings are coming off a bye. I'm giving Mike Zimmer a point-and-a-half for the extra preparation, and yet this line is still off.

    I'm on the Bears for four units, and if Zimmer didn't have extra time to prepare, this would be a five-unit wager. This line is short, and we get to fade a heavily publicly backed underdog, which sounds like a great deal to me.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A line of -2.5 -110 popped up on BetUS briefly, but the spread there is now -2.5 -115 again. I still love Chicago though, and with all of the public money coming in on Minnesota, this spread could keep falling.

    SATURDAY NOTES: There's nothing to note per the injury reports. I still love the Bears, and I'm considering a fifth unit. I'm holding out for a better line.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I'm going to lock in -2.5 -110, available at BetUS, for five units. I've been waiting for this spread for a while, and Chicago seems like a terrific play at that number. The Bears are better than the public-dog Vikings, and Kirk Cousins could have another meltdown on national TV again.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: This game mirrors the Colts-Titans contest from 1 p.m. Tennessee is an overrated public dog, while the underrated host will be able to exploit a big liability. In this case, the Bears' defensive front will destroy Minnesota's offensive line. The Bears are better or even than the Vikings at all but two positions, so this spread should be a lot higher than -2.5. As with the Colts, I love Chicago for five units. The sharps haven't touched this game, but they didn't bother with Colts-Titans either. I was surprised about that, and I'm equally shocked now because the Bears seem like such an obvious side.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
    The Vikings are a public dog.
  • Percentage of money on Minnesota: 66% (32,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • History: Home Team has won 25 of the last 30 meetings (Vikings won 6 of the last 7 meetings).
  • Mike Zimmer is 49-23 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.
  • Mike Zimmer is 10-3 ATS with extra time to prepare since 2015.
  • Bears are 5-21 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games.
  • Opening Line: Bears -3.
  • Opening Total: 46.5.
  • Weather: Clear, 29 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 11 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Vikings 20
    Bears -2.5 (5 Units) - BetUS -- Correct; +$500
    Over 44 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Bears 25, Vikings 20




    Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) at Los Angeles Rams (9-1)
    Line: Rams by 3. Total: 63.5.

    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -1.5.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Chiefs -1.5.
    Monday, Nov 19, 8:15 PM


    The Game. Edge: None.

    This week on ESPN, we're going to have two people I don't know calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here's what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Mexico, where the St. Louis Rams take on the Kansas City Royals! Guys, I'm joining live via Skype once again. Last week, mother wouldn't let me go to San Francisco because she said there were too many needles and poop everywhere, which made it dangerous for her little poopikins. She was even more adamant that I don't go to Mexico because of the carnival that's headed to the United States. She said there are very dangerous people in the carnival. After I had nightmares from the movie It, she apparently didn't want me to see someone dressed like a clown!

    Emmitt: Clown, you miss a great time. I go to the carnival last year, I mean last night, and he have a good time. I pop some balloon, throw ring on bottle, go through a room with lot of mirror that I break with my hammer, and I also mud wrestle with my arm against strong lady, and she winned it against me.

    Reilly: Emmitt, you're making me jealous, and it's not helping that you called me clown. How can you call me clown? You have to take me super seriously! Look at how many Nick Foles posters I have in my room! Look at the camera and marvel at all the Nick Foles posters!

    Tollefson: I have no idea what carnival you guys are talking about. I saw the caravan though. It's great. I was able to hand out tickets that said "One Free Pass to America" to all the men, and they gave me everything they had for them. I also thought about kidnapping some women to stash as slave maids that I can keep in my basement, but then I realized that things would be difficult if I had to translate South America language to them. I can't speak a word of South American!

    Fouts: And here's what he means by South America. There's a country. It's called America. You can find it on the map on the left side, and what I mean by left is, it's the one that's not right. And the country is the one that looks like the United States. That's America. Then, you look at America, and you look at the south part of it. I don't mean north, which is up. I don't mean west, which is left. I don't mean east, which is right. I mean south, which is down. The down part of the country is South America.

    Herm: THAT'S NOT SOUTH AMERICA! THAT'S NORTH AMERICA! SOUTH PART OF NORTH AMERICA! NOT NORTH PART OF SOUTH AMERICA! YOU'RE TALKING NORTH PART OF SOUTH AMERICA! I MEAN SOUTH PART OF SOUTH AMERICA! I MEAN NORTH PART OF NORTH AMERICA! I MEAN SOUTH PART OF NORTH AMERICA! THAT'S THE ONE! SOUTH PART OF NORTH! SOUTH OF NORTH! NOT NORTH OF SOUTH! SOUTH OF NORTH! SOUTH! NORTH! NORTH! SOUTH! SOUTH! NORTH! SOUTH! SOU- SO- S- uhh... umm...

    Reilly: Would you just shut up already, Herm? No one cares about geography. I only got a C- in my geography class in home school last year. New daddy was in my class, and he even tried to cheat off me! Isn't that right, new daddy?

    Cutler: Oh, your mom was teaching us geography? I thought that was family fun night, so I was just making doodles on paper.

    Wolfley: BE CAREFUL MAKING DOODLES ON PAPER. IF YOU DRAW A FIRE HYDRANT WITHOUT LIPS, YOU WILL HAVE SEVEN YEARS OF BAD LUCK.

    Reilly: What? Why would anyone draw a fire hydrant with lips? Just shut up, idiot. Anyway, new daddy, can you bring me back a stuffed animal from the carnival?

    Cutler: Nah, I'll pass.

    Reilly: Why!? Why won't you get me anything, new daddy, it's almost like you don't love me! Wahhhh!

    Charles Davis: Kevin, there should be a knock on your door soon, Kevin. Five, Kevin. Four, Kevin. Three, Kevin. Two, Kevin. One, Kevin. Knock knock, Kevin. Go get the door, Kevin. I'll wait until you get back, Kevin. Waiting, Kevin. Waiting, Kevin. Waiting, Kevin. Oh, I see you're back, Kevin, and I see you're holding the prize from the carnival, Kevin. Congrats, Kevin, I came through for you again, Kevin. I popped all the balloons at the carnival, Kevin. It cost me 716 tickets, Kevin, but I popped all the balloons, Kevin.

    Reilly: Wow, you are really amazing, Charles Davis! You're more of a new daddy to me than new daddy is. We'll be right after this!

    Charles Davis (inaudibly): Yes, Kevin, take my stuffed animal, Kevin, that I haven't bugged at all, Kevin, and don't bother asking me how I knew you'd want that, Kevin, for I have read all of your diary entries, Kevin, and soon your diary entries will be about how much I have destroyed your life Kevin, muhahaha, Kevin.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I have to imagine that the Chiefs are extremely thrilled that Marcus Peters is playing very poorly. Not only do they not have to feel bad about letting him go during the offseason, but they'll also be able to take advantage of his horrible coverage in this game. I imagine Peters will be on Tyreek Hill at least some of the time, and Hill has to be licking his chops in anticipation of abusing his former teammate.

    Hill should have a monstrous performance, and so should Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce. Speaking of former teammates, Watkins will return from his one-game absence and should play well against Los Angeles, where he didn't fit in quite well last year. Watkins has been much better in Kansas City, and I imagine that Patrick Mahomes will feed him the ball. Mahomes will also connect frequently with Travis Kelce, who figures to abuse a shaky group of linebackers.

    Mahomes will also be able to hand the ball off with success. We just saw Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis run well versus the Rams' poor ground defense, so Kareem Hunt will have a huge night. The Rams' only chance of stopping the Chiefs will be putting pressure on Mahomes with their prolific defensive front, but the mobile Mahomes will escape some pressures and threaten the Rams' defense with big plays.

    LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: While the Chiefs will be getting Watkins back from injury, the Rams lost a weapon of theirs, one who is way more valuable to them than Watkins is to Kansas City. That would be Cooper Kupp, who tore his ACL late against Seattle. Kupp has been Jared Goff's safety valve, so his absence will have a profound effect on the Rams moving forward.

    That said, I wouldn't expect Jared Goff to struggle as greatly as Matthew Stafford has since losing Golden Tate. Goff still has plenty of dynamic weapons at his disposal in Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. The Chiefs cover the slot well anyway because of Kendall Fuller, so Kupp wasn't expected to have a big game. Woods will be in the slot, so Fuller should do a decent job on him, meaning Cooks figures to be the primary producer for the Rams. Kansas City doesn't have the personnel to slow him down.

    Oh, and then there's a guy named Todd Gurley. The MVP candidate could have his biggest game of the year. We just saw the formerly deceased David Johnson revive against Kansas City's poor defense, so Gurley could easily accumulate 200-plus total yards in this game.

    RECAP: This game was moved from Mexico City to Los Angeles because the people running the stadium were stupid enough to host concerts in it so close to the NFL game. The turf looked like it had been eaten alive by a thousand cows, so the NFL made the correct decision to move this game back to Los Angeles.

    If anything, we learned something from this change, and that would be what the sportsbooks consider Los Angeles' home-field advantage to be worth. The answer would be 1.5 points. This line was at -2.5, and as soon as the announcement was made, this spread popped up to -4. It has since settled into -3.5, as the sharps bet on Kansas City at +4.

    Given that we know, for a fact, that Los Angeles' home-field advantage is worth 1.5 points, we can safely say that this spread is too high. I considered the Chiefs and Rams to be very close to even recently, but Kupp's injury made me downgrade the Rams ever so slightly. I have the Chiefs as a half point better than the Rams, so 1.5 minus 0.5 is one. The Rams should be favored by exactly one.

    And yet, that's not the case. The Chiefs are getting more than a field goal, which seems like a terrific bargain. We saw Mahomes and the Chiefs go into Foxboro and nearly win that game, losing by only three. That was a tough environment. This, however, will not be like Gillette Stadium. In fact, Kansas City fans may outnumber Rams supporters, hence the 1.5-point home-field advantage.

    I love getting more than a field goal with elite quarterbacks, and given that Mahomes is the leading MVP candidate, we can certainly classify him as such. I'm putting three units on the Chiefs.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It's crazy how much public money is on the Chiefs. I still like Kansas City, but I'd be lying to you if I said I wasn't concerned by this!

    SATURDAY NOTES: Something hit me this morning. I think the Rams are going to have an incredibly emotional game Monday night with this game moving to Los Angeles. The Rams are going to dedicate it to all the victims of the wildfires. I think they'll play with more passion than the Chiefs, so I don't want to stand in their way. With 80 percent of the betting against on Kansas City, the host might just be the right side. I'm not going to bet this game.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The NFL Network guys just talked about the emotion the Rams may play with in the wake of the wildfires in California. The former players on TV may not pick games well, but they happen to know about the emotional aspect of the game, and they might just be right. I'm not going to bet on this contest.

    MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: If it weren't for any emotional ramifications, I'd be on the Chiefs. I think they're the slightly better team, and this line says they're 1.5 points worse than the Rams, as we know that Los Angeles' home-field advantage is worth exactly 1.5 points. If anything, the Chiefs are 0.5 or one point better than the Rams. However, this could be a rally-type game for the Rams to play for the victims of the California wildfires, and that's not something I want to stand in front of. If it weren't so late in the week, I'd even consider changing my pick. Either way, this is a zero-unit pick.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Rams on Monday evening, raising the juice on -3 to -120 or -125. Pinnacle has -125 juice posted, which is very telling, given that they're the sharpest book out there. I have the Chiefs listed as a pick, but if I had to bet this right now, I'd take the Rams because of what they're playing for.


    The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
    The Rams could be playing for the victims of the wildfires.


    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    The publc was on the Chiefs at +2.5. The sharps bet them at +4. Everyone is betting the Chiefs at +3.5.
  • Percentage of money on Kansas City: 75% (49,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Rams -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 63.5.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 68 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 11 NFL Pick: Chiefs 31, Rams 30
    Chiefs +3 (0 Units) -- Push; $0
    Under 63.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Rams 54, Chiefs 51





    Week 11 NFL Picks - Early Games
    Green Bay at Seattle, Dallas at Atlanta, Carolina at Detroit, Tennessee at Indianapolis, Tampa Bay at NY Giants, Houston at Washington, Pittsburgh at Jacksonville, Cincinnati at Baltimore


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


    I can't find a teaser I like this week, so I'm going to pass on this.


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7 (2014-18: 38-43)
    Bears: 9-7 (2014-18: 36-41)
    Bucs: 8-5 (2014-18: 36-40)
    49ers: 7-11 (2014-18: 46-33)
    Eagles: 8-9 (2014-18: 47-37)
    Lions: 11-4 (2014-18: 42-38)
    Falcons: 11-5 (2014-18: 44-40)
    Cardinals: 8-6 (2014-18: 37-44)
    Giants: 11-5 (2014-18: 41-36)
    Packers: 9-9 (2014-18: 45-37)
    Panthers: 5-9 (2014-18: 42-43)
    Rams: 7-7 (2014-18: 46-34)
    Redskins: 5-11 (2014-18: 44-37)
    Vikings: 8-9 (2014-18: 43-36)
    Saints: 9-8 (2014-18: 40-42)
    Seahawks: 3-13 (2014-18: 40-43)
    Bills: 8-8 (2014-18: 44-34)
    Bengals: 10-6 (2014-18: 32-46)
    Colts: 9-6 (2014-18: 41-39)
    Broncos: 5-11 (2014-18: 40-37)
    Dolphins: 6-10 (2014-18: 41-36)
    Browns: 12-3 (2014-18: 34-41)
    Jaguars: 6-10 (2014-18: 35-45)
    Chargers: 10-5 (2014-18: 36-44)
    Jets: 10-6 (2014-18: 40-34)
    Ravens: 9-8 (2014-18: 39-39)
    Texans: 8-9 (2014-18: 40-38)
    Chiefs: 9-9 (2014-18: 47-41)
    Patriots: 8-9 (2014-18: 47-44)
    Steelers: 10-6 (2014-18: 46-37)
    Titans: 9-10 (2014-18: 40-37)
    Raiders: 10-6 (2014-18: 33-46)
    Divisional: 47-42 (2011-18: 358-352)
    2x Game Edge: 74-58 (2011-18: 139-152)
    2x Motivation Edge: 72-58 (2011-18: 275-230)
    2x Spread Edge: 61-55 (2011-18: 0-0)
    2x Vegas Edge: 46-42 (2011-18: 274-293)
    2x Trend Edge: 21-18 (2011-18: 229-210)
    Double Edge: 35-26 (2011-18: 87-81)
    Triple Edge: 13-12 (2011-18: 8-6)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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