NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,415)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$510)

NFL Picks (2018): 72-64-6 (+$1,305)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 4, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games

Oakland Raiders (1-6) at San Francisco 49ers (1-7)
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 45.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Raiders -1.
Thursday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM

The Game. Edge: Raiders.

WEEK 8 RECAP: What a roller coaster of a Sunday. I thought I was only winning the Chiefs pick in the early slate, only to see Kansas City fail to score in the final 20 minutes, allowing the Broncos to get a back-door score at the very end. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers, getting dumpster fired all day because of Jameis Winston’s interceptions, were able to sneak in a back-door cover themselves, thanks to Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The late games were even more tense. The Cardinals were down for most of the afternoon, but thanks to some San Francisco defensive injuries, Josh Rosen was able to engineer two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to get the win. Meanwhile, I nearly suffered an all-time bad beat when the Packers +8 nearly failed to cover despite holding a lead for most of the afternoon. If you somehow missed it, the Packers fumbled a kickoff return, and the Rams could’ve scored a touchdown several plays later to cover the spread. However, Todd Gurley wisely fell down shy of the goal line to end the game. It was the right move because had he scored, and the extra point was missed – I’ve learned not to take any extra points for granted after Justin Tucker missed last week – Green Bay would’ve had one more chance, down eight.

When this happened, I posted the following on Facebook, “Thank you, Todd Gurley. I’m going to buy your jersey.”

And I did. Look:

I’ll be wearing it when it arrives during the next podcast episode. The 2-day shipping was just $7 more than standard shipping, so I’m hoping to have it by this week’s episode.

At any rate, I finished 6-8 (+$510). I’m disappointed by losing most of my zero-unit selections, but I’m happy to be in the black, thanks to Gurley and Fitz-magic.

My Week 9 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: It’ll be interesting to see what the 49ers’ injury report looks like because they lost three important defensive players during the Arizona game. Linebacker Reuben Foster, safety Jaquiski Tartt and cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon were all knocked out and missed a portion of the second half, allowing Josh Rosen to mount a fourth-quarter comeback. Given that the 49ers are on a short work week, it could be difficult for them to play.

Tartt is decent, but Foster and Witherspoon haven’t played well this year. However, they’re better than the reserves, and any further injuries would really stretch the team’s depth. Plus, with just three days to prepare, it’ll be tough to get reserves up to speed.

Given all of that, I think the Raiders should be able to move the chains effectively. The 49ers have struggled to defend pass-catching running backs and tight ends all year, so I like Jared Cook and Jalen Richard’s chances in this game. Derek Carr won’t have much time to throw behind his poor offensive line, but he’ll be able to release quick passes to take advantage of an injury-plagued back seven.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: C.J. Beathard will also try to release the ball quickly, as he’s a big fan of the checkdown. Like the 49ers, Oakland’s ability to defend tight ends and receiving backs has been poor this year, thanks to an abysmal linebacking corps and shoddy safety play. George Kittle should have a big game, much like Jack Doyle did last week, but I’m not sure Matt Breida will. Breida tweaked his ankle late against Arizona and he may not play with just three days to recover. Raheem Mostert is a clear downgrade.

Beathard won’t always check down, and when he doesn’t do so, he’ll take sacks. Beathard struggled in this regard at Arizona, ruining several drives because he held on to the ball too long. The Raiders don’t have the edge rush the Cardinals possess, but their interior defensive front is solid and should be able to put some heat on Breida, given how poor San Francisco’s inside blocking happens to be.

Speaking of the defensive interior, it was trampled by Marlon Mack this past Sunday. However, the Raiders had to worry about Andrew Luck torching them, so they couldn’t really focus on Mack. They’ll be able to clamp down on Breida and/or Mostert because Beathard won’t threaten them downfield.

RECAP: Why is C.J. Beathard favored by three points over anyone? Have we not learned our lesson from the Arizona games? The Cardinals beat the Beathard-led 49ers by an average of 6.5 points in two meetings, and the Raiders and Cardinals are on the same level. Oakland’s defense is clearly not as good, but the offense is much better.

I have some slight worries about the Raiders possibly being a no-show on a short week, given all of the trades that have occurred recently, but they played hard against the Colts, which is a good sign. They should be able to cover the +3 against a team that actually happens to be worse than them. I’m going to put two units on the Raiders and possibly move it up to three prior to kickoff.

PICK LOCKED IN: I’m locking this in for four units. Check out this tweet from Matt Barrows:

C.J. Beathard is struggling to hold the ball with his sore right wrist. He’s not practicing today. Shanahan said it will be a challenge for him to play Thursday. If not, it’s Nick Mullens vs. Raiders.

This line is still up on 5Dimes at +3 -110. This spread could plummet, so I want to bet this now.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I watched every single Nick Mullens snap from the preseason this morning, given that he may start over the injured C.J. Beathard. I wanted to see a terrible quarterback I could go against in the Supercontest, but Mullens wasn’t bad at all. His arm strength on a scale from one to 10 is a minus-5, but he’s extremely accurate. He fit in a pass to Richie James over two defenders in the preseason finale that made me shout, “What a throw!” Mullens is tough as well, per reports, and he has functional mobility. All in all, I don’t think he’s any sort of a downgrade from Beathard.

With that in mind, I regret my four-unit wager on the Raiders. Perhaps I’ll still be safe at +3, but I definitely would not wager on the Raiders at +2.5. In fact, if Mullens is announced as the starter, and this spread continues to drop, I’m going to place a two-unit bet on the 49ers to try to get a middle. The Raiders stink, and I should not have bet so heavily on them, especially given how great of a public dog they are. I’ll have an update on this later in the evening when there is further Beathard/Mullens news.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I thought about betting the 49ers – now at +1.5 – to get a middle, but I’ve decided to just stick to my gut and keep the four units on the Raiders. It’d be one thing if I had +2.5 instead of +3, but I find it unlikely that San Francisco will win by more than three points, even though Nick Mullens might be better than people think he is. If you didn’t get +3, I wouldn’t bet more than a unit on the Raiders. There’s so much money on Oakland tonight that there might be some weird stuff going on, especially after Vegas’ brutal losses in Week 8.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

The Raiders are getting tons of action.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 74% (65,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

49ers are 37-20 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Raiders 27, 49ers 24
Raiders +3 (4 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$440
Over 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 34, Raiders 3

Detroit Lions (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (4-3-1)
Line: Vikings by 4.5. Total: 47.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -5.5.
Sunday, Nov 4, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have three overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: How are the Lions going to contain the Vikings’ scoring unit? They had issues stopping the Seahawks last week, thanks to their atrocious linebacking corps and defensive backfield outside of Darius Slay, and Minnesota has way more firepower than the Seahawks do.

Slay is an excellent cornerback, but that’s all the Lions have in the secondary. Slay will cover Stefon Diggs well, but Detroit doesn’t have anyone to stay with Adam Thielen, who should be able to put together another 100-yard performance. Meanwhile, the linebackers won’t be able to cover Kyle Rudolph. He barely missed out on a touchdown last week, but should be able to score this Sunday.

The Lions might be able to win in the trenches, but only because Minnesota’s offensive line is so poor. The Vikings can’t pass protect, so Ziggy Ansah will need to play to give Detroit a chance of containing the Vikings. Meanwhile, Minnesota should get Latavius Murray going, as Chris Carson managed to trample them behind an equally woeful blocking unit.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Vikings have been missing some key defensive players, but they could have two back this week in Everson Griffen and Xavier Rhodes. I know Griffen played last week, but he didn’t see his usual number of snaps. He could play more this week, and if so, he may give left tackle Taylor Decker a challenge. Meanwhile, Rhodes wasn’t around to slow down Michael Thomas on Sunday night. His presence will definitely be needed here, as the Lions have three dynamic receivers.

Even if Rhodes suits up, the Vikings may have trouble staying with Detroit’s trio of wideouts. Rhodes will lock down one of them – probably Marvin Jones – but the other two should play well. Golden Tate, in particular, should have a great game, as Minnesota hasn’t been able to cover slot receivers since losing talented rookie cornerback Mike Hughes to a season-ending injury.

The Vikings also have trouble covering in space. The Lions don’t have a dynamic tight end to take advantage of this, but Kerryon Johnson should have a big game as a receiver. Johnson won’t have much room on the ground, but he’ll post big receiving numbers if given the chance.

RECAP: I’d like to point out how fascinating the line movement on this game has been. I have a second monitor here to track live line moves, and this one has been crazy. This spread was +5.5 early Tuesday, but plummeted to +4 in most books, including +3.5 in the sharp places like Pinnacle and CRIS. About 20 minutes later, the spread shot up to -4 in the smart books, while the Westgate changed it to -4.5. I could be wrong, but it seems to me as though the sharps were playing games with this line. They likely bet the Lions enough to move the spread, then wagered heavily on Minnesota once they had -3.5 available. That’s my guess, anyway.

At any rate, I like the Vikings a bit, and depending on what the status of Rhodes happens to be, I may bet them. This spread has moved two points on the advance line, as it was Minnesota -6 a week ago. We now have some value with the Vikings, who should be able to beat up on the Lions, who don’t have a good track record against winning teams under Matthew Stafford. They’re 28-41 against the spread versus teams with winning records with Stafford, compared to 35-37 ATS versus opponents that are .500 or worse. The Lions basically beat teams they’re supposed to, but lose when expected. The Vikings, despite being overrated, are a step up in class from what the Lions have battled in recent weeks.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread was trending downward, but has since risen to -5 because of the Golden Tate trade. The Vikings are very weak to slot receivers, so not having Tate on the field will be a huge deal. I’m not interested in betting this game, but would take Minnesota in an office pool.

SATURDAY NOTES: The injury report is funny in that both Stefon Diggs and Darius Slay could miss this game, which would cancel each other out. The Vikings could also be missing Anthony Barr and Xavier Rhodes as well. I’m still on the Vikings for a non-play, but I’ve considered switching to Detroit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Darius Slay will play, while Stefon Diggs is out. For Minnesota’s defense, Xavier Rhodes will play, but Anthony Barr is out. The sharps haven’t touched this game, and neither have I.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

The public and sharps bet the Vikings heavily.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 75% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Lions have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Lions are 19-6 ATS on the road after a home loss of 10+.

Lions are 10-18 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning records since 2011.

Mike Zimmer is 48-23 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Vikings are 26-11 ATS at home since 2014.

Opening Line: Vikings -5.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Lions 20
Vikings -4.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Vikings 24, Lions 9

Kansas City Chiefs (7-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-5-1)
Line: Chiefs by 8. Total: 51.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -6.
Sunday, Nov 4, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot.

The highest-bet sides were 43-40-4 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets last week:

Eagles -3

Patriots -14

Colts -3

Redskins -1

Bears -7

Vegas got slaughtered in Week 8. Every single one of those teams covered. If this keeps happening, there might be several bodies buried in the Nevada desert.

The overall record of heavily bet teams is now 17-21-3. Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Chiefs -8

Steelers +3

Bears -9

Vikings -5.5

Those are the only lopsided games for now. Nothing here surprises me, as the public will always bet road favorites and large home favorites with reckless abandon. The Steelers, meanwhile, are always going to be a public team.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns have fired Hue Jackson and Todd Haley – for my opinion on this, here my Coach Firing Grades page – and that might be good for the long term, but it could hurt this week. Both Jackson and Haley are offensive coaches, so the Browns will have someone brand new calling the shots without a full week to prepare.

I don’t like the fact that the Browns won’t have a complete offensive game plan in place. You could argue that it may matter less against Kansas City’s poor defense, but the Browns will have to be efficient on this side of the ball to keep pace with the Chiefs, who will surely score into the 30s or even 40s. Unfortunately for the Browns, it doesn’t seem as though they have the horses to do so. Their receivers drop way too many passes, while their offensive line has struggled to block recently. Dee Ford and Breeland Speaks could both have big games as edge rushers, and Justin Houston’s potential return to the lineup could make things even more troubling. Baker Mayfield has not played well since injuring his ankle against the Chargers, and he could continue to struggle.

The Browns will need to slow things down and possess the ball as long as possible, establishing the run with Nick Chubb. We just saw Phillip Lindsay run all over the Chiefs, so Chubb could have a big game. However, I expect the offensive line to commit errors and for the receivers to drop important passes, which will ruin the keep-away formula the Browns must utilize.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I mentioned that the Chiefs are likely to score into the 30s or 40s. I really don’t see why they wouldn’t. Cleveland has surrendered 30-plus points to the Chargers and Steelers in recent weeks, and Kansas City is more potent offensively.

The one positive on this side of the ball for the Browns is that Tyreek Hill may not play because of a strained groin. Sammy Watkins will serve as the No. 1 receiver, so he’ll draw the blanket coverage of stellar rookie cornerback Denzel Ward. However, Cleveland is at its weakest trying to defend the middle of the field with talented linebacker Joe Schobert out of the lineup. That means Patrick Mahomes will be able to target Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt with a great amount of success.

Speaking of Hunt, I expect him to have a huge game as both a runner and a receiver out of the backfield. The Browns are very weak to outside tosses, so I’d be surprised if Andy Reid didn’t attack this element of Cleveland’s defense.

RECAP: I imagine that the Browns will be a popular side among the contrarians. I would not recommend betting them, however. They could be in disarray with all the coaches being fired and John Kreese, I mean, Gregg Williams having to take on more duties. Also, Cleveland’s defense hasn’t been as good since losing Schobert, one of their top defensive players. And to top it off, Mayfield hasn’t quite been the same quarterback since getting hurt against the Chargers.

Oh, and I almost forgot. This Mahomes guy is great. I suspect he’ll have a terrific spread record like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers in several years, so I wouldn’t advise betting against him.

This is Chiefs or nothing, and I’m thinking about betting Kansas City. If Schobert is out again, I may wager two units on them (I’ll keep it on one for now.) I know the public action is insane following a horrible week for Vegas, but I just don’t see how the Browns will be able to compete with the Chiefs when they weren’t able to do so versus the Chargers or Steelers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Joe Schobert has yet to practice this week, which is good news for the Chiefs. I’m still on them for a unit. The sharps haven’t taken a side yet.

SATURDAY NOTES/LOCKED IN: In a bizarre turn of events, Tyreek Hill will play in this game, as he’s no longer on the injury report anymore. Meanwhile, the Browns are missing lots of players, including star linebacker Joe Schobert. Center J.C. Tretter, safety Damarious Randall and left tackle Desmond Harrison are all questionable. Throw in the coaching changes, and the Chiefs seem like a better play. I’m going to increase this unit count. This line has fallen to -7.5 in several books, but I’m going to sell the half point and wager on -8 -105 at BetUS.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Browns are down two key defenders along with two coaches, but that hasn’t stopped the sharps from betting the Browns. The sharps always bet the Browns though, so don’t let this scare you off wagering on Kansas City.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

The Browns could be in disarray because of the firings.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

People think the Chiefs are easy money.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 82% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chiefs -8.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: Cloudy, 55 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Chiefs 38, Browns 24
Chiefs -8 -105 (2 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$200
Over 52.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 37, Browns 21

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (4-4)
Line: Ravens by 2.5. Total: 46.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3 -120.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -5.
Sunday, Nov 4, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: .

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. I didn’t see anything on the picks page, but this is from the NFL Power Rankings page:

I don’t understand why he would think that looking like a 16-year-old is a bad thing. He might as well have called me a beautiful man.

These next few are from the NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page:

Guys, I’ve been trying all my life to be more valid than Vegas – and then I see this comment, and it totally broke my heart!

Two more…

I thought I’d let someone else answer that last one. Major burn!

Anyway, it’s Contest Announcement time!

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We’re partnered with Draft Kings this year. Here’s the link to the FREE Entry to DraftKings Team Pick’em Contest where you can win a chance at $1 million.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The last time these teams clashed, Joe Flacco torched the Steelers, going 28-of-42 for 363 yards and two touchdowns. He hit John Brown on some deep bombs in a convincing victory in Pittsburgh. This was back in Week 4, and things haven’t really changed since then.

The one different thing in this rematch is that this game will take place in Baltimore, where Flacco tends to perform better. Flacco has a 6:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in home games this year, compared to 6:6 on the road. This has been the case throughout Flacco’s career, so he could be even better against a Pittsburgh defense has some major problems. Joe Haden is great, and he’ll lock down Michael Crabtree again, but the rest of the cornerbacks have struggled. I suspect Brown will have another big game.

Meanwhile, the Steelers don’t cover the middle of the field very well, as they’ve struggled versus tight ends and pass-catching running backs. Baltimore’s talented rookie tight ends are being more involved in the offense, so both Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews could have significant catches in this game. Buck Allen should also do well.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Ravens did not play a good defensive game last week, but it looked like they were half asleep in anticipation of this matchup. They’ll play much better versus the Steelers, as they limited Ben Roethlisberger to one of his worst performances of the year back in Week 4.

Like Flacco, Roethlisberger plays much worse on the road, and I suspect that he’ll struggle for the most part in Baltimore, especially if right tackle Marcus Gilbert is out again. The Ravens tallied 11 sacks a few weeks ago at Tennessee, so they obviously can take advantage of liabilities on the offensive line, and Gilbert’s backup happens to be one.

Meanwhile, the Ravens should be able to handle the Steelers’ skill-position players relatively well if Marlon Humphrey is back from injury. Humphrey has missed the past two games with a thigh problem, and Baltimore’s secondary regressed as a result. Fellow cornerback Jimmy Smith has struggled since tweaking his groin, and he’ll be torched if he has to play over Humphrey again. The good news for the Ravens is that Brandon Carr will be able to lock down the other side of the field, while James Conner will be contained by a stalwart run defense. Conner has been great this year, but he had his worst performance of the year against the Ravens back in Week 4, mustering just 19 yards on nine carries.

RECAP: This spread is too low. The Ravens, despite the worse record, are clearly better than Pittsburgh. They clobbered the Steelers in Pittsburgh five weeks ago, and nothing has really changed since, aside from Humphrey’s injury. The Steelers have accumulated wins against bad teams like the Browns and Falcons, while the Ravens have battled top-10 opponents New Orleans and Carolina.

I have Baltimore being favored by five, and that’s even a conservative number. Thus, we’re getting great spread value with the Ravens. The public doesn’t see it that way, however, as they’re betting heavily on the Steelers, failing to recognize that Pittsburgh has gotten wins over bad teams and tends to play much worse on the road.

Depending on the injury report, I’ll be betting highly on the Ravens. I’ll make it four units for now, but I could be convinced to move to five if Humphrey is set to make his return.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is falling as I’m typing this, as some -2.5 -120s have appeared. That’s better than -3 -110, and even -3 -105. However, the Ravens have several players who aren’t practicing, including Ronnie Stanley, C.J. Mosley and Tony Jefferson. I definitely don’t want to bet the Ravens heavily if they’re missing Mosley and Jefferson. I may decrease this unit count on Friday or Saturday, depending on what the injury report looks like.

SATURDAY NOTES/LOCKED IN: Earlier in the week, it didn’t look like C.J. Mosley or Tony Jefferson would play, but they’re questionable after being limited Friday. I find it highly unlikely that they’ll miss such a big game. Baltimore won’t have Ronnie Stanley or James Hurst on the offensive line, but Pittsburgh’s Marcus Gilbert is doubtful as well. I still love the Ravens, especially at this reduced spread. The best number I can find is -2.5 -110 at 5Dimes, which I’ll lock in.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, I should not have locked this in, as the sharps and public have bet down the Steelers to +1. I don’t get it. I know the Ravens are banged up, but the overrated Steelers haven’t beaten anyone, and they’re massive public dogs and happen to be playing on the road, which tends to be a problem for them. I still love Baltimore, but wish I got a better number!

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

The Steelers are a big-time public dog.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 72% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Home Team has won 24 of the last 35 meetings.

Ben Roethlisberger is 49-30 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Steelers are 25-15 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 40 instances.

Ravens are 23-11 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Ravens are 28-20 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

John Harbaugh is 12-5 ATS following a loss of 10+.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 56 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Ravens 31, Steelers 24
Ravens -2.5 (4 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$440
Over 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 23, Ravens 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (5-2)
Line: Panthers by 7. Total: 55.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Panthers -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -7.
Sunday, Nov 4, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Last week, I wrote about things the NFL needed to improve. I discussed the horrible 9:30 a.m. games and the negative fantasy football implications they carry. I talked about how teams playing on Thursday Night Football both need to come off byes. I also delved into the Los Angeles Chargers’ situation, and how the team should move to a city that would support the team, such as San Antonio, Portland, Oklahoma City or Salt Lake City.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention another improvement the NFL must make. That would be removing most illegal formation and procedure penalties.

The thing to bring this to light was the dumb infraction the Texans received in their Thursday night victory over the Dolphins. If you missed it, Houston knelt down to take the game to halftime, but the officiating crew made the players return to the field from the locker room because the Texans were guilty of an illegal formation. The Dolphins even tried to decline the penalty to do everyone a favor, yet the officials made all of the players line up again for another kneel down regardless.

This was one of the dumbest things I had ever seen. There was no reason for the officials to do this outside of being downgraded for not enforcing a penalty.

Here’s an idea: Let’s get rid of illegal formations that aren’t completely blatant. I’m sure many of you would agree, but there’s nothing more disheartening to see a great play happen, only to have a zebra announce, “Illegal formation on the offense. That’s a 5-yard penalty. Repeat third down.”

I’m all for enforcing an illegal formation if the offense is doing something whacky, or if the linemen aren’t on the line of scrimmage, but if someone’s not covering up the tight end, who the f**k cares? I mean, really? Enough with this nonsense. Let’s just play football and not worry about someone standing in the wrong spot by an inch.

2. An interesting thing to happen in the preceding Monday night game between the Falcons and Giants was when New York scored a touchdown to draw to within seven. Except, they went for two instead to attempt to make the margin six instead. They failed, so they were down by eight.

Now, what the Giants did was insane to the announcing crew and regular fans, many of whom were confused on Twitter. A small sample size of football fans cited analytics and math for the reason to go for two. Despite sounding smart, they were wrong.

I’m not doubting the math, and I think there’s a time and place for analytics. However, what analytics fail to encompass is the human and emotional element. Football players thrive on emotion, and a negative play, such as a failed two-point conversion, could deflate or confuse a team, and the defenders may not play up to their ability as a result. The emotional factor is so important in football, which is why we see teams playing in low-energy games lose all the time. New England at Detroit/Jacksonville and Baltimore at Cleveland come to mind.

Another thing to consider is the media backlash. Most of the press thought going for two was incorrect, as evidenced by the ESPN crew’s baffled response to the two-point conversion. Ownership might have been equally confused. Pat Shurmur, already under fire, didn’t have enough clout to make such a decision. Had he been a very successful coach like Bill Belichick, this wouldn’t have affected his job status at all, but New York’s owner might be thinking he has a coach who doesn’t understand when to go for two.

Besides, the Giants could’ve kicked the extra point and then gone for two at the very end anyway to attempt to avoid overtime. This would’ve been the correct decision. Shurmur wouldn’t have been criticized by most people had he gone for the win, his players wouldn’t have been deflated following the initial failed conversion, and no one would’ve been confused by any sort of cryptic math.

3. Ending this on a lighter matter, does anyone understand what’s wrong with Troy Aikman? He had this to say when Joe Buck brought up podcasts:

“Who listens to podcasts?”

Uhh… everyone under 40 years old, Troy? That’s just a guess.

I don’t know why Aikman is so anti-podcast. It’s quite silly, actually. He might as well have snorted, “Texting? Who actually texts people?” or “Phone calls? Who actually calls each other on the phone?” or “Indoor plumbing? Who uses indoor plumbing?”

To be fair, Aikman has had to listen to Joe Buck make up betting statistics and talk about boring baseball repeatedly over the years, so perhaps his brain has completely melted.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It was announced Monday that the Buccaneers would start Ryan Fitzpatrick over Jameis Winston. This is the right move for sure. Winston is obviously way more physically gifted than Fitzpatrick, but he’s an aloof bozo who, as I’ve reported on multiple occasions, was very distracted this offseason, constantly doing stupid things. It’s not a surprise in the slightest that this has transitioned into Winston’s on-field performance.

Fitzpatrick is actually serious about his pro career, and I expect him to play well in this matchup. The Panthers have some serious issues in the secondary, and I don’t think their cornerbacks will be able to stay with any of Tampa’s talented receivers. Meanwhile, we saw Zach Ertz go off two weeks ago, so O.J. Howard figures to have another strong outing.

The Panthers are at their strongest on this side of the ball at stopping the run. Because, however, the Buccaneers have struggled with their ground attack for most of the year, I don’t think it’ll affect how Tampa Bay performs offensively as a whole.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s easy to say that the Panthers will have an easy time scoring against the Buccaneers’ atrocious defense because most teams have had success against it this year. However, given that the Panthers don’t have the greatest receiving corps, to put it nicely, Tampa could get some stops on this side of the ball. I suppose it really depends on how well D.J. Moore plays. The first-round rookie appeared to blossom last week with a big showing against the Ravens, but Baltimore was sleepwalking through that game. If Moore can repeat that performance, it could really take the Panthers to another level because they lack downfield threats otherwise.

It’ll be essential for Moore and Devin Funchess to play well because the Buccaneers are sure to put heat on Cam Newton. Carolina’s offensive line is putrid, and the strength of Tampa’s defense is its front, especially if Gerald McCoy is able to return from his two-game absence. McCoy has a great matchup, as does Jason Pierre-Paul versus Carolina’s inept left tackle.

The Buccaneers also happen to be stout against the run, so Christian McCaffrey won’t succeed when getting carries. However, I expect McCaffrey and Greg Olsen to have nice performances catching the ball, as Tampa’s linebacking corps has struggled. Someone named Adarius Taylor is seeing way too many snaps for the Buccaneers, and opposing offenses are certainly taking advantage of his incompetence.

RECAP: The Buccaneers are one of my top picks this week. I’m planning to bet five units on them.

This spread is way too high. It was Carolina -4.5 on the advance line, so why did it move 2.5 points? Because the Panthers beat the Ravens? That was a nice win and everything, but Baltimore was sleepwalking through that game. Prior to that victory, the Panthers trailed the Eagles 17-0 in the fourth quarter; they lost at Washington; and they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Giants. Does this sound like a team that should be favored by a touchdown over a competent opponent?

Also, it must be pointed out that the Panthers might be the team that happens to be sleepwalking this week. They have to battle the Steelers in just four days. They’re big favorites here, so I don’t think they’ll be focused.

As for the Buccaneers, they’re better with Fitzpatrick, and we’ve seen the Harvard alumnus be capable of engineering back-door touchdowns if he needs them. I don’t think he will, but it’s a nice possibility to have on a huge wager.

To give you an idea of how much I love the Buccaneers this week, I’ve been frantically monitoring the lines to see if +7 -110 becomes available somewhere. It’s +7 -115 in most books, which is fine, but I’d prefer to get the best number possible. I may still pull the trigger though, and I’ll keep you updated. Check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

PICK LOCKED IN: I was hoping to get +7 -110, but I don’t think it’s happening. The sharps have already bet the Buccaneers, and this spread is +6.5 in most places. It’s still +7 -115 at Bovada and +7 -120 at 5Dimes, so I’ll lock in the former for five units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Not only are the +7s gone, but the +6.5s have disappeared as well. Most books have the Buccaneers at +6, as the sharps are all over Tampa.

SATURDAY NOTES: Gerald McCoy has a chance to play in this game after returning to practice Friday. He actually practiced fully, which is great news.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Gerald McCoy is playing, which is great news for the Buccaneers, as well as myself because I wagered five units on +7 -115.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Panthers have a big game against the Steelers in four days.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
The public is leaning toward the Panthers, but the sharps have pounded Tampa.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 61% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Panthers have won 10 the last 14 meetings.

Road Team is 86-54 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Panthers -7.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: Sunny, 62 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Panthers 26, Buccaneers 24
Buccaneers +7 -115 (5 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$575
Under 55 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 42, Buccaneers 28

New York Jets (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (4-4)
Line: Dolphins by 3. Total: 42.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: No Line (Tannehill).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -3.5 (Tannehill) or Jets -1 (Osweiler).
Sunday, Nov 4, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I didn’t mention this last week because the two teams were on a bye, but the Alabama-LSU game is already tainted by controversy. I’m talking, of course, about the Devin White suspension. White, one of the top linebackers in the collegiate ranks, has been suspended for the opening half because of a bogus helmet hit in the previous game. I didn’t think it was quite the targeting penalty the officials made it out to be, but the zebras thought it was brutal enough for White to miss half of the most important game of the year.

I’m sure any non-Alabama fan will agree that this decision was absolute horse s**t. The NCAA is sabotaging its own integrity with this nonsense. How can it possibly sideline one of the best players in the SEC for a judgment call? It’s not like White sexually assaulted someone, or stole something, or even cheated on a test. He was trying to make a football play and went a bit too high accidentally. That’s not worth suspending him for a half of such an important game.

Here’s what I would do if I were LSU: I would play White for the entire game anyway. What’s the NCAA going to do if LSU does this? Take away scholarships? Give scholarships anyway! Remove bowl games? Find a sponsor and stage your own bowl game! I’d just give the NCAA the middle finger and tell it to f**k off for this nonsense.

2. Staying in the SEC, there was more fun concerning one of the Florida games recently, as you can tell by this tweet:

This Jeff person is right. One excited camera man did an upshot of one of the Florida cheerleaders as she was being hoisted up. And as Jeff said, it was incredible.

I thought about pausing the game and taking a picture so I can show you what exactly Jeff was talking about, but I quickly realized that this would make me seem creepy. The camera man was being creepy enough already – albeit in a good way – so I didn’t need to add to the creepiness!

3. I’ve mentioned ESPN color analyst Brock Huard before. Huard is a good analyst, but he says weird things at times. I recall him nearly crying because he watched a good game, sobbing, “Thank you college football. Thank you college football.”

Huard recently said something even stranger:

“He has a governor he trusts.”

What does that mean, exactly? Why would a college player trust a governor? Politicians are untrustworthy, and college kids tend to be completely uninformed because they are brainwashed by their biased professors, so I thought it was irresponsible of Huard to say something like this. Hell, I don’t even trust the politicians I vote for, so why would some college kid’s opinion on politics matter?

Brock, and other sports writers, please stay away from politics – no matter how much you may trust your governor.

MIAMI OFFENSE: It’s currently unclear which quarterback will start for the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill has missed the past three contests with a shoulder injury that he suffered at the end of the Oakland game in Week 3. Adam Gase said that Tannehill is throwing, but it’s unclear how much power he can get in his passes. Gase said he’d like to know about Tannehill’s availability by Wednesday, so hopefully we’ll know something definitive soon.

A healthy Tannehill would obviously be the preferred option for Miami fans, as the Dolphins moved the chains well with him in the first three weeks of the season. They’ve struggled for the most part after he got hurt late versus the Raiders. There was an exception against the Bears, as Miami hit some big plays with Chicago wilting in 100-degree Miami heat, but Brock Osweiler has been poor otherwise. He struggled mightily against the Texans last week, and I imagine he’ll have similar problems in this contest, as he once again won’t have Albert Wilson at his disposal. Kenny Stills could also miss this contest.

The Dolphins being depleted at receiver is definitely good news for the Jets, who have injury problems in the defensive backfield. Morris Claiborne is great, and he should be able to put the clamps on DeVante Parker, but the rest of the secondary is banged up. Fortunately for the Jets, they can do other things well, such as stuff the run and apply interior pressure. Both aspects of their defense will certainly help them in this matchup. I don’t anticipate the Miami running backs being very effective, while the Dolphins’ interior blocking will once again prove to be a major problem.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets also have injury concerns at receiver. Both Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa were out last week, so Sam Darnold’s top wideout as Jermaine Kearse. There’s a chance Anderson returns this week, but that may not matter very much because Xavien Howard is an excellent corner. Howard had issues with DeAndre Hopkins during the second half of Thursday night’s loss, but he’s been mostly stellar otherwise this year. He won’t have much of an issue covering Anderson, who may not be completely healthy.

That said, Sam Darnold could have some success moving the chains. The Bears swarmed him last week with some great interior pressure, but the Dolphins don’t have that in the wake of letting Ndamukong Suh go. They can apply heat on the quarterback on the edge with Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn, but the Jets’ tackles aren’t too bad. Darnold will at least have enough time to locate tight end Chris Herndon, who has a terrific matchup against the Dolphins’ poor linebackers. Herndon is an athletic rookie who is coming into his own. I suspect he’ll have a very strong second half to his rookie year.

The Jets also figure to run the ball well against the Dolphins. Miami’s ground defense has been woeful lately. Both Kerryon Johnson and Lamar Miller trampled them in the past two weeks, so Isaiah Crowell figures to have a good game.

RECAP: I may bet at least three units on the Jets if Osweiler starts again. Osweiler is an atrocious quarterback who should never be favored like this. I’ve yet to make money this year betting against Osweiler, who is now 10-17 against the spread as a starter. I’d like to do so before he gets sent to the bench once again.

The one caveat here is the “Walter Special,” as we like to say on the WF Podcast. The Dolphins have a tremendous advantage when it’s very hot and humid at home, as they get to wear their white jerseys. The Jets have already wilted in the Jacksonville heat earlier in the year in their dark greens, and the same thing could happen in Miami. It’s too early to check the weather report, so I’ll have further updates later in the week.

If it’s projected to be 80 or cooler, I’ll certainly be on the Jets if Osweiler plays, as they’ll seek revenge for the loss Miami dealt them at home in Week 2. The official unit count will be posted later.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s looking like 83 and partly cloudy in Miami, which isn’t horrible. I suppose that’s the good news. The bad news is that Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa have yet to practice, meaning the Jets’ receivers are going to be very limited again. Still, Brock Osweiler is favored, so the Jets an auto play.

PICK LOCKED IN: Some serious sharp action brought this spread down to +2.5, though it’s still available at +3 -120 at Bookmaker. It sounds like at least one of the Jets’ top two receivers will play, which is a nice boon for them. The weather is somewhat concerning – it’ll be 84 degrees and partly cloudy – but Brock Osweiler is favored by three, which should never happen. I’m going to lock in three units on the Jets just in case this spread falls again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jets will have their top two receivers, which is great news. The weather report says it’s 84 degrees, but mostly cloudy and windy, so hopefully that won’t affect the Jets too much. Unfortunately, I got a bad number, as this line is now +3 -110 instead of -120.

The Psychology. Edge: TBA.
It might be very hot and humid in Miami once again.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 54% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Road Team has won 14 of the last non-London 21 meetings.

Underdog is 82-58 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 140 games.

Dolphins are 7-22 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008. ???

Dolphins are 13-37 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 84 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Jets 23, Dolphins 20
Jets +3 -120 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$360
Over 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 13, Jets 6

Atlanta Falcons (3-4) at Washington Redskins (5-2)
Line: Redskins by 2.5. Total: 47.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -4.5.
Sunday, Nov 4, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Even with a week off, I don’t expect the Falcons to improve defensively. They simply have too many injuries, creating some massive liabilities in the middle of the field that their opponents have exploited all year.

Alex Smith seldom goes deep and loves to utilize the middle of the field, so this seems like a nightmare matchup for the Falcons. Atlanta can’t defend tight ends or receiving backs at all, so Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson will have big games. Adrian Peterson will as well, as the Falcons’ run defense has been poor for the most part this year. Peterson has run through some stout ground defenses in recent weeks, so he should be able to take advantage of an easy matchup.

Meanwhile, I find it unlikely that the Falcons will be able to pressure Smith very well. Vic Beasley has regressed since the team’s Super Bowl run, and he’s been especially atrocious this year. He stands no chance at getting around Trent Williams, while Morgan Moses figures to handle Takk McKinley very well.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons have surrendered tons of points this year, but they’ve been able to win nearly half their games thus far by engaging in shootouts with the opposition. The one thing that must be pointed out, however, is that Atlanta has mostly done this at home. Excluding the opener, when Deion Jones, Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen all were on the field, the Falcons have played just ONE road game, and they scored just 17 points against the Steelers’ pedestrian defense.

The Redskins obviously have a much better defense than Pittsburgh’s. Their defensive line, led by the “Bama Boys,” is awesome, and it’ll prevent the Falcons from establishing the run, which has been a problem for Atlanta ever since losing Devonta Freeman.

Washington will also pressure Matt Ryan frequently, so Ryan will have to force some throws into a talented secondary. Julio Jones will get his, as Odell Beckham Jr. did last week, but the Redskins should do a good job of limiting Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu. The same goes for emerging tight end Austin Hooper, as linebacker Zach Brown and safety D.J. Swearinger are playing out of their minds.

RECAP: This spread makes absolutely no sense to me. Even when factoring in the bye, I made Washington 4.5-point favorites. Yet, the Falcons are favored by just a point-and-a-half. And it’s not a trap either because there’s plenty of public action coming in on Atlanta!

The public loves the Falcons despite their close wins against bad teams at home. They were barely able to sneak by the Giants and Buccaneers as hosts, and now they have to battle a tough opponent on the road. Why would they be able to defeat a superior team on the road when they could barely handle bad competition at home?

As mentioned earlier, the Falcons have played just two games on the road this year, and only one since losing half of their defense to injuries. That one game was a 41-17 blowout loss at Pittsburgh, and yet the Redskins are just as good as the Steelers, if not better!

This is another five-unit play for me. I love the Redskins. Not only are we getting an insane amount of spread value with them, but we also get to fade a public dog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still love the Redskins, as this spread makes absolutely zero sense. I’m shocked the sharps haven’t pounced on Washington.

SATURDAY NOTES/LOCKED IN: The Redskins won’t have Trent Williams, which would normally be a huge deal, except the Falcons don’t rush from the edge very well. Washington also has a solid backup at left tackle, so I am not concerned about that. I still love Washington, and so do the sharps. I’m going to lock in -2.5 -105 at 5Dimes.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp action on the Redskins. I’m surprised there’s not more, as the Falcons have done nothing but beat bad or distracted teams at home this year.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Falcons are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 55% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Redskins are 11-29 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -1.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Sunny, 57 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Redskins 27, Falcons 17
Redskins -2.5 -105 (5 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$525
Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 38, Redskins 14

Chicago Bears (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (2-6)
Line: Bears by 10. Total: 37.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: No Line (Allen).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bears -8.5 (Anderson) or Bears -3.5 (Allen).
Sunday, Nov 4, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Bears.

Video of the Week: If you want to play a funny trick on your dog, you can try this:

Most of the reactions are funny, and those that aren’t feature hot girls, so it’s definitely worth watching. By the way, my wife tried this with our dog, and he just playfully attacked her. He’s smart, as he saw right through it.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Mitchell Trubisky hasn’t thrown well this year, as his footwork has been poor. He often releases passes off his back foot, and he’s inconsistent with his accuracy as a result. That could spell trouble against a solid defense that just limited Tom Brady to 18 points.

However, the Bears seem to have a nice matchup here, as the Bills struggle to cover the middle of the field. James White just had a big game, and Rob Gronkowski probably could’ve posted a huge stat line if it wasn’t for his back injury. Julian Edleman also did well. Trubisky will be able to attack Buffalo’s linebackers with Trey Burton and Tarik Cohen, and Anthony Miller also could have a solid performance.

The Bears won’t be able to run the ball well with Jordan Howard, as Buffalo’s ground defense is solid. However, Trubisky will definitely move the chains with his legs. Trubisky’s running ability has saved him from being an anemic quarterback, and Buffalo’s defense, which could be tired coming off a shorter rest week, may have issues containing Trubisky when he scrambles.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen will be out 1-3 more weeks, which means it’ll be Derek Anderson and his magical flask if he can recover from an injury that he suffered late against New England. If Anderson can’t go, Nathan J. Peterman will get the nod.

The Bills have scored five and six points in two games since losing Allen. The remarkable thing is that those opponents – Colts, Patriots – don’t even have good defenses! The Bears’ stop unit is far better and could force countless turnovers in this matchup, especially if Peterman is under center.

I don’t see how the Bills are going to move the chains at all. They can’t block, which is a huge problem against teams with terrific fronts like Chicago’s. Allen was able to mitigate this issue because of his mobility, but neither Anderson nor Peterman possess that trait.

RECAP: There’s a ton of public action on the Bears, but I don’t care. I’m going to wager against Anderson or Peterman, and I’m going to win lots of money.

This is a four-unit selection. Anderson and Peterman both suck, and their atrocious offensive line has a terrible matchup against Chicago’s front, and the Bills will have one fewer day to make the impossible adjustments for this. Buffalo also just had its “Super Bowl” against the Patriots, so matching that intensity will be impossible. The Bears should be able to win this game easily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s been announced that Nathan J. Peterman will start against the Bears. The spread has since risen to -10, and yet I still love the Bears for four units. Peterman should be good for several interceptions, as he likely still has PTSD from his previous action in which he threw two interceptions to lose the game against Houston.

SATURDAY NOTES/LOCKED IN: The sharps haven’t touched this game, while the public money has slowed down after the line reached -10. Meanwhile, Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson have a chance to suit up. This seems like an easy win for the Bears. There’s a good chance this spread explodes Sunday morning – it’s already -10.5 at Pinnacle and 5Dimes – so I’m going to lock this in now at BetUS (-10 -105).

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson are out, but that’s not a surprise to me. The sharps have been betting on the Bears.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.

The Bills just lost their “Super Bowl.”

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Is anyone crazy enough to bet on Buffalo?

Percentage of money on Chicago: 65% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 28-17 ATS in November home games the previous 45 contests.

Bills are 20-10 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Bills are 20-33 ATS in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Bears -8.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 51 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Bills 3
Bears -10 -105 (4 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$400
Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 41, Bills 9

Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games
Houston at Denver, LA Chargers at Seattle, LA Rams at New Orleans, Green Bay at New England, Tennessee at Dallas

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)