NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,415)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$510)

NFL Picks (2018): 72-64-6 (+$1,305)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 4, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games

Houston Texans (5-3) at Denver Broncos (3-5)
Line: Broncos by 1. Total: 48.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -1.
Sunday, Nov 4, 4:05 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

Two years ago, on the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, Tom Brady was elected as the President of the United States, as it was revealed that he was the only candidate running because both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were figments of his imagination. He followed that up by stopping Vladimir Putin from hacking the NFL. In doing so, however, Tom Brady was stuck in an evil dimension, and his evil counterpart has come into our world. No one is aware that Tom Brady is now Evil Tom Brady, which is great for Evil Tom Brady because he can begin devastating the world…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos just traded Demaryius Thomas, though I don’t think that’ll have much of an impact on their chances following this game. Thomas seemed like he was dogging it at times this year, at least ever since he discovered that Case Keenum wasn’t as good as advertised. He dropped a ball last week and generally looked disinterested. You can read more about the Thomas trade on my NFL Trade Grades page.

With Thomas gone, Courtland Sutton will have more opportunities, which is a good thing. Sutton is a better receiver right now. The Texans have issues at cornerback, so Sutton could have a big performance in his first game in an expanded role. Emmanuel Sanders, of course, will continue to be Keenum’s preferred target, though he may have trouble getting open in this contest with Tyrann Mathieu being able to cover the slot.

Denver’s offensive line has some major problems at left tackle, left guard and right tackle, and the Texans will be able to expose those areas with their terrific front. Meanwhile, I don’t expect Phillip Lindsay to produce much as a runner, as the Texans have a terrific ground defense.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Speaking of offensive line problems, the Texans have blocking woes on the entire front. Their line was a major reason why Houston had issues with the Bills a few weeks ago. Buffalo’s talented defensive line won in the trenches, and I expect the Broncos to do the same in this matchup.

The Texans will at least be able to have two talented threats on both sides of the field. That was a concern with Will Fuller going down for the year, but Thomas will make for a fine replacement. He’s a different sort of receiver at this stage of his career, but he should be able to get open versus Denver’s pedestrian secondary.

Speaking of the Broncos’ defensive liabilities, the middle of the field should be wide open, as it always is. Sixth-round rookie tight end Jordan Thomas looked good last Thursday night, so perhaps he could have a decent performance. I also expect Lamar Miller to run well again, as Denver’s ground defense has been woeful for most of the year.

RECAP: I planned on picking the Broncos for a small wager prior to the Thomas trade. I won’t be doing so anymore.

I wrote earlier that Thomas being traded won’t have an impact on the Broncos “following this game.” I specifically wrote those words because Thomas could give the Texans some useful insight on Denver’s schemes and signals. I clearly remember the 2003 NFL season opener between the Patriots and the Bills when New England let go of star safety Lawyer Milloy. He joined the Bills, who demolished the Patriots, 31-0, because Bill Belichick didn’t change his signals. If Belichick can make a mistake like that, Vance Joseph could certainly be guilty of it as well.

Because of this, I’m going to pick the Texans. I won’t bet on them, however, as I have concerns about their offensive line’s ability to block Denver’s front.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I actually just did a Twitter search of “Demaryius Thomas signals,” and yet nothing relevant came up. I worry that the Thomas trade will impact the game that way, especially considering that no one is talking about it. I’d like Denver otherwise.

SATURDAY NOTES/UNIT & PICK CHANGE: This is from Cecil Lammey, who is very much worth a follow on Twitter because he covers the Broncos extremely well: “I think we’re okay (in terms of changing hand signals, audibles). He won’t know what we’re doing in terms of game plan.” – Vance Joseph.

I’m glad I saw that. I like the Broncos. They should be able to dominate the trenches, and they’re a public dog. I’m going to bet them for two units. This would be a higher wager if I trusted Denver a bit more. I’m going to lock in Denver at -2.5 +100 at Bookmaker.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still like the Broncos, and it’ll be interesting to see if the sharps come in on them today. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line hasn’t moved at all, and there hasn’t been sharp action on either side. I still like the Broncos for a couple of units.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

The Demaryius Thomas trade could benefit the Texans.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

The Texans have gotten much more action since the Demaryius Thomas trade.

Percentage of money on Houston: 68% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 53 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Broncos 23, Texans 20
Broncos -2.5 +100 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$200
Under 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 19, Broncos 17

Los Angeles Chargers (5-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3)
Line: Pick. Total: 48.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -2.
Sunday, Nov 4, 4:05 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views, so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Pittsburgh Steelers 2019 NFL Mock Draft

Chicago Bears 2019 NFL Mock Draft

Seattle Seahawks 2019 NFL Mock Draft

Perfect Match: Drew Lock to the Jaguars

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

Robbertjandrost Mock Draft

AJScout Mock Draft

KKunert327 Mock Draft

Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2018 NFL Survivor Pool. You have until Sunday to register, so do it soon! Of the 1,225 starting players, we lost 723 because of the Saints and Lions. The Vikings then knocked out a bunch of people, and we’re down to just 29 souls remaining..

We also have our Wekly Fantasy Football Contest. You can enter for free and win cash prizes!

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: It’s amazing that Russell Wilson has been able to play so well this year despite the lack of talent around him. His offensive line sucks, he’s throwing to mediocre or injured players, and his running back is Chris Carson. Yet, despite this, as well as his team’s defensive issues, Seattle is somehow 4-3.

The Seahawks will continue to struggle to block throughout the second half of the year, so it’s a good thing for them that Joey Bosa hasn’t been able to return to the lineup. Bosa is still dealing with an injury, meaning the Chargers will continue to have just one viable pass-rusher. Wilson can deal with that, so he’ll be able to attack the Chargers downfield. San Angeles is not getting good play from their No. 2 corner this year, so either Tyler Lockett or the emerging David Moore will be able to take advantage of that.

Carson, meanwhile, won’t have the same sort of prolific performance he enjoyed in Detroit. The Lions can’t defend the run, but the Chargers have been much better in that facet ever since getting Corey Liuget back from suspension. Wilson, however, will pick up first downs with his legs.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Melvin Gordon, meanwhile, didn’t have any sort of performance in his previous game, as he sat out with a minor injury. He’ll be back after two weeks off, but the Seahawks will have a plan for him. Seattle is very good at defending the run, as Bobby Wagner is enjoying yet another prolific year. The Seahawks also cover the middle of the field well, so Gordon won’t have a huge game as a receiver.

If Philip Rivers can’t utilize Gordon as effectively as he’s used to, he’ll be forced to attack Seattle’s secondary. Both Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams have positive matchups. We just saw what Marvin Jones just did to the Legion of Boom-less Seahawks, so both receivers could go off if Rivers has enough time to locate them downfield.

That’s the question, however. I don’t trust the left side of the Chargers’ line, and that’s where Frank Clark will be rushing from. Russell Okung isn’t quite the blocker he used to be, so I don’t know if he’ll be able to contain Clark.

RECAP: This is the toughest game of the week to handicap. I don’t see any sort of edges for either team, and the spread is exactly where it should be at Seattle -2. Frankly, these are two teams I wanted to bet against this week.

I’m going to take the Seahawks for no units because of their home-field advantage. Plus, Rivers is 4-10 against the spread off a bye, though something like that isn’t worth wagering on at all, as I’ve learned in previous years.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has dipped to Seahawks -1. I still don’t have any sort of feel for this game. I’ve wanted to hear convincing arguments from people one way or the other, but nothing’s come up.

SATURDAY NOTES/PICK CHANGE: The Seahawks could be missing Bradley McDougald, who has played very well for them at safety. The sharps have been betting the Chargers heavily. I said I was torn on this game, so this is enough for me to make the switch to the road team.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES/PICK CHANGE: I regret changing this from the Chargers to the Seahawks. OK, I’m changing back! I can’t make up my mind on this stupid game. After earlier sharp action on the Chargers, there’s now some sharp money on Seattle. But here’s the reason why I’m changing: I thought about why this spread isn’t -3, and it’s because the Chargers are coming off a bye. Teams tend to get a point or two after a bye, but Philip Rivers is just 4-10 ATS off a bye, so I think that dynamic is overrated in this instance.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still don’t know what to make of this game. Hopefully I’ll be able to learn something from it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 53% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Philip Rivers is 4-10 ATS off a bye.

Seahawks are 44-26 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -1.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Sunny, 55 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Chargers 21
Seahawks PK (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 25, Seahawks 17

Los Angeles Rams (8-0) at New Orleans Saints (6-1)
Line: Rams by 1.5. Total: 57.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -3.
Sunday, Nov 4, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Saints.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is underway! In Episode 8, Emmitt gets some blow back for removing the statues. He then meets with his coaches to formulate a plan to turn the Patriots around.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about creepy guys at the gym, including one who was hitting on a 90-year-old woman!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Rams made some noise at the trade deadline, acquiring Dante Fowler for two draft picks. You can read more about it on my NFL Trade Grades page. Specifically for this game, I don’t see Fowler doing much. Fowler will make the Rams’ edge rush better, but the Saints protect Drew Brees extremely well on the outside with their two prolific tackles. If they’re going to pressure Brees, it’ll be in the interior with Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh.

Brees, however, releases the ball quicker than any quarterback in the NFL, and he’ll be able to attack the weak points of the Rams’ defense. Los Angeles can’t cover. Not on the outside, and not in the middle of the field. Their cornerback situation is a mess, as Aqib Talib is out, while Marcus Peters is playing on one leg. Aaron Rodgers torched them last week, and Brees will have even more success in his dome.

Meanwhile, defending the middle of the field has been a huge problem for the Rams all year, dating back to Week 1 when Jared Cook had a monster game against them. The Saints don’t have a dynamic tight end like Cook, but they possess Alvin Kamara. He’ll have a big day as a receiver out of the backfield, and I also expect him and Mark Ingram to run well, given that the Rams have surrendered some big rushing performances this year.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams will obviously score as well. The Saints defend the middle of the field better than the Rams do, but they have some of the same coverage issues. Their top cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, is a good one, but the rest of their cornerbacks are liabilities.

I imagine Sean McVay will create a great game plan for Jared Goff. He’ll attack Eli Apple and P.J. Williams, and this strategy will be successful if Cooper Kupp returns from injury. Kupp missed the past two games, and it’s unclear if he’ll be 100 percent upon his return, but I imagine that his presence will help.

Then, of course, there’s Todd Gurley. The Saints defend the run well, but so do the Packers, and Gurley still made some big plays. Gurley wasn’t as dominant as he usually is last week, so expect a similar performance here.

RECAP: This spread isn’t correct. These teams are close to even. It could be argued that the Rams are slightly better, and even if that’s the case, New Orleans should still be at -3, as the Saints should get 3.5 points for being at home.

With that in mind, we’re getting 1.5 points of value with a team that will be playing with very high energy in front of crazy fans. The Rams don’t have a road win over a quality opponent this year, and their best victory period is over the Chargers at home, so this is obviously a huge step up.

On top of that, the Rams’ defense doesn’t match up well with the Saints, who should be able to score at will in their dome. I’ll be betting New Orleans in this contest for three units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: What’s this? The Rams are now favored? I don’t understand why, but perhaps the sharps are betting Los Angeles because they’ve heard some injury news. I haven’t seen anything yet outside of Cooper Kupp potentially being able to play.

SATURDAY NOTES: Cooper Kupp will play, and I wonder if that’s the reason why the sharps have been betting the Rams so heavily. I still like the Saints quite a bit, especially as a home underdog. I’m going to hold out hope that we get +3.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: So much for +3. The sharps, who were on the Rams earlier, have pounced on the Saints, taking this to +1.5. I’m still going to hold out for the best line possible.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No +3 has appeared, which is a shame. The best line I can find is Saints +1 +105 at 5Dimes, which I’ll wager on for three units.

The Psychology. Edge: Saints.

The Saints will be playing with greater energy in their home stadium.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 53% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Saints are 42-32 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 48-30 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 60.

Weather: Dome.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Saints 38, Rams 34
Saints +1 +105 (3 Units) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$315
Over 57 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 45, Rams 35

Green Bay Packers (3-3-1) at New England Patriots (6-2)
Line: Patriots by 5. Total: 56.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -6.5.
Sunday, Nov 4, 8:20 PM

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

I’m going to devote this section to Ross Avila. If this is your first time reading this, and you don’t know who Ross is, he’s a douche who harassed me on Facebook about my picks all last year. Here are some of the things he said:

He wrote this to me during the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, where he bragged about being right about Atlanta. Oops.

Ross constantly embarrassed himself throughout the year, including when he posted this, suggesting that he sold picks to people:

I eventually unfriended Ross. He started going after women on my Facebook page, including my then-fiancee. I warned him, and he didn’t listen, so I unfriended him.

Because I was a big part of Ross’ life, he sent me countless messages. I’ve shown you some already. Check this one out:

This is from the past couple of weeks, and I’m re-posting it because this Lex bully guy actually e-mailed me! Check it out:

Lex replied:

Sad. Just sad. I feel sorry for the girl Ross followed home. God knows whatever creepy things he was plotting.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: When I made the Packers my October NFL Pick of the Month last week, I had some e-mailers cite concern about Green Bay’s defense, which was understandable, given how well C.J. Beathard played against them prior to the bye. I told them to read my write-up, as I talked about how banged up the Packers were on this side of the ball prior to the bye. They got their players back against the Rams, and that would include first-round cornerback Jaire Alexander, who had an amazing game.

Things have changed again, however. The Packers inexplicably traded talented safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix – see my NFL Trade Grades page for more – so Tom Brady will be able to exploit that matchup. It’s not all bleak though; Alexander put the clamps on Brandin Cooks this past week, and I think he’ll be able to cover either Julian Edelman or Josh Gordon well. Meanwhile, the Green Bay inside linebackers and safeties should be able to keep Rob Gronkowski in check. Gronkowski is obviously limited his by bad back anyway, so he’s not nearly as much of a threat as he’s been in recent years.

The Patriots also aren’t running the ball very well. They struggled to establish their ground attack at Buffalo, and they could have similar issues versus the Packers, who just did a good job on Todd Gurley for the most part. It’ll help if Sony Michel is able to return from injury, but it’s unclear if he’ll be ready for action.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Bill Belichick is great at erasing one aspect of an opposing offense, so I imagine he’ll want to prevent Davante Adams from going off. He has the terrific cornerback to cover him in Stephon Gilmore, however, so perhaps he’ll focus on Jimmy Graham. The Patriots don’t have good linebackers, but we’ve seen them scheme against Travis Kelce rather well several weeks ago. Belichick will be able to take away the middle of the field, forcing Rodgers to look elsewhere.

Most quarterbacks would have issues with Belichick taking away to of their top weapons. Rodgers, however, is not most quarterbacks. He’s a future Hall of Famer who has improved every week since hurting his knee on opening night. When he had time in the pocket against the Rams, he was able to torch them effectively, and I believe he’ll be able to do the same thing again in this contest, much like Patrick Mahomes was able to do after the Patriots tripped him up in the opening half.

With the Patriots focused on stopping Rodgers, Aaron Jones could have a big game. The Packers have finally realized that Jones is their top running back. He had some nice moments against the Rams, but couldn’t find any room versus their ferocious front. He’ll have more success at New England.

RECAP: I loved the Packers at +7, which was the opening number. It quickly fell to +6.5, and then +6, which still seemed appealing. Then, the spread fell to +5.5. It has risen back to +6 in some books since the Clinton-Dix trade, but for good reason. Clinton-Dix’s absence will allow Brady and Bill Belichick to exploit a very lopsided matchup in Green Bay’s secondary. The Patriots struggled to score Monday night, but they won’t have such issues in this contest.

Despite the trade, the Packers still have a decent chance to cover because of Rodgers. I love betting on elite quarterbacks getting tons of points, which was one of the many reasons I made the Packers my October NFL Pick of the Month last week. However, there are two differences here. First, we’re not getting the key numbers of six and seven like we did versus the Rams. And second, Rodgers is battling another elite quarterback in Brady, who will be very up for this game to prove that he’s better than Rodgers.

I’m still going to side with the Packers. I’m not sure I’m going to bet this game. If I end up doing so, it’ll be for a small number of units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line is falling, as sharp money is coming in on Green Bay. If you like the Packers, grab +6 while you still can (still available at Bovada.)

SATURDAY NOTES: The Packers look like they’re going to be down Geronimo Allison. Some sharps are on the Packers +6, while other sharp action is on New England -5.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are now on the Packers again, bringing the line down to +5. I’m wondering if it’s because of the Sony Michel and Rob Gronkowski news.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been pounding the Packers all day Sunday, perhaps because Sony Michel is out. Given that the Patriots can’t run the ball, they may struggle again in the red zone. I think that’s a big enough edge to bet Green Bay. I don’t love the Packers, but I’m willing to put a unit on them. The best number still available is +6 -120 at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
A slight amount of action on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 58% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Aaron Rodgers is 84-56 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 19-14 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 24-12 ATS after a loss.

Tom Brady is 228-70 as a starter (169-115 ATS).

Tom Brady is 18-11 ATS on Sunday Night Football.

Opening Line: Patriots -7.

Opening Total: 56.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 39 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Packers 31
Packers +6 -120 (1 Unit) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$120
Over 56.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 31, Packers 17

Tennessee Titans (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (3-4)
Line: Cowboys by 6. Total: 40.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -1.5.
Monday, Nov 5, 8:15 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have two people I don’t know calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the horrible city of Dallas, where the hated Dallas Cowboys will lose to the Tennessee Tigers. Guys, I hate the Cowboys with a passion, so I had to make sure that they would lose no matter what. I hope you guys are proud of what I did. I hate the Cowboys.

Emmitt: Cowboys, I do not understanding why you hate the Cowboy. He a good team, Jerry Johnson a good owning. Dirk Prescott a good throwing guy. Dak Bryant good catchy guy.

Reilly: Emmitt, did you just call me Cowboys!? DON’T TELL ME YOU JUST CALL ME COWBOYS, OR I’LL PUT YOU ON MY MAILING LIST! YOU’LL BE ON MY MAILING LIST, EMMITT, AND YOU’LL PAY!

Tollefson: Mailing list? What the f**k are you talking about, Reilly? If you have a mailing list, can you send it my way so I can mail old people in order to con them out of money? I need more cash to buy a bigger house because I’m running out of room for places to stash women’s bodies.

Reilly: Eww, what could anyone possibly do with women’s bodies? And no, Tolly, you may not have my mailing list. I already mailed the Hillary Clintons, Maxine Walters, Joe Bident, and Robert De Nilo, and now I’ve mailed the Cowboys, so they better be careful not to have an explosive day muhahahaha! Get it?

Wolfley: KEVIN, YOU’RE ONE SICK F**K.

Herm: THAT’S RIGHT! THIS IS RIGHT! YOU’RE RIGHT! HE’S RIGHT! IT’S RIGHT! ALL RIGHT! HE’S THE MAIL BOMBER! HE’S SENDING THE MAIL BOMBS! HE’S SENDING THE BOMB! HE SET UP US THE BOMB! THE BOMB! THE- uhh… umm…

Reilly: Damn it, I forgot to send one to Herm’s house! How could I be so forgetful!

Fouts: And here’s how to report a serial bomber. You pick up the phone. And here’s what I mean by that. You see your phone, and then you reach out your arm, and cup your hand under the phone, then use pressure from your fingers to squeeze together so you can hold it in your hand. Then, dial 9-1-1. And here’s what I mean by dial 9-1-1. You find the number nine, and you tap it. If you tapped eight by accident, you were off by one, if you tapped seven by accident, you were off by two, and if you tapped six by accident you were off by three. If you tapped any of these numbers on purpose, then you’re not following directions on purpose, which means you should probably stop listening. Then tap one. If you tapped zero by accident, you were off by one, if you tapped negative-one by accident, you were off by two, and if you tapped negative-two by accident you were off-

Reilly: Fouts, shut up. No one should be calling the police on me. Mother told me that I needed to step up and take more responsibility. She said I have to mow the lawn on Saturdays now instead of playing with my Nick Foles action figures, but now I have to mow the lawn, and now I’m going to show Mother that I can take even more responsibility and that I’m a grown up and I deserve more of an allowance. Isn’t that right, New Daddy?

Cutler: Oh, was that the thing you were talking about with sending bombs to people? Whatever man, I don’t really care.

Reilly: See? New Daddy says I can send bombs!

Fouts: …And then you tap the number one a third time, and then you put the top of the phone next to your ear to listen. If you put the top of your phone next to your nose, you’re doing it wrong. If you put the phone next to your elbow, you’re getting colder. If you put the phone next-

Charles Davis: Dan, put down the phone, Dan. It’s OK, Dan. Kevin was just kidding, Dan, right Kevin? Dan, Kevin didn’t do anything wrong, Dan, he was just kidding, Dan, right, Kevin? Because, Kevin if you really sent bombs, Kevin, then you’d be in trouble from Dan, right, Kevin? Kevin meant pepperoni pizza instead of bombs, Dan, right, Kevin? Dan, pepperoni pizza, Dan, is just code word for fake bombs, Dan, right, Kevin?

Reilly: Uhh… yes, those bombs aren’t real. Just deliving pepperoni pizzas. Thanks for saving me, Charles Davis, you’re a real friend, and I’m going to be able to keep sending bombs, I mean, pepperoni pizza to teams I hate! We’ll be back after this!

Charles Davis (inaudibly): Yes, Kevin, keep sending bombs, Kevin, keep blowing people up, Kevin, and keep seeing the world burn, Kevin, for it will be your world that burns at the very end, Kevin, muhahaha, Kevin.

DALLAS OFFENSE: This is going to be Amari Cooper’s first game as a Cowboy, and I’m interested to see how quickly he’s integrated into the offense. Dallas has enjoyed a bye week to get him ready, but under the new NFL rules, teams can’t practice as much during their week off. Besides, we’ve seen countless mid-season trades involving receivers fail to have an impact because it’s very difficult for wideouts to adjust to a new offense on the fly.

Cooper has a tough matchup anyway. The Titans have some solid cornerbacks, so they should be able to limit him and Cole Beasley. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott may not have much time in the pocket. The Cowboys fired their offensive line coach because some of their new blockers aren’t as good as the old ones, and the Titans have the personnel to rattle Prescott. Rookie Harold Landry, Brian Orakpo and Jurrell Casey all have solid matchups, and they should be able to provide heat on the quarterback.

Speaking of the offensive line, Ezekiel Elliott’s blocking has regressed as well this year. The Titans have a strong run defense anyway, so I don’t see Elliott having much space to work with in this contest. He’ll probably score a touchdown to save his fantasy owners, but he’ll need to be more of a factor as a receiver in this game. The problem with that is Tennessee being able to cover better in space ever since talented linebacker Wesley Woodyard returned from injury.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans know a thing or two about bad blocking, as they surrendered 11 sacks to the Ravens three weeks ago. However, there was a reason for that. Not only were they looking ahead to their London game, but star left tackle Taylor Lewan was coming off an injury and wasn’t quite himself. Lewan was better the following game, and having some time off will allow him to be 100 percent this week.

Lewan being completely healthy is extremely important in this matchup because the Cowboys have a stellar defensive line. Lewan should be able to handle Randy Gregory and Taco Charlton, though I have doubts about right tackle Jack Conklin being able to block star end DeMarcus Lawrence. Meanwhile, David Irving figures to have a huge performance, as Tennessee’s interior blocking is pretty rancid.

Marcus Mariota won’t be hounded like he was versus Baltimore, but he’ll see a considerable amount of pressure. With the running game likely to struggle again, Mariota will have to move the chains, which will be problematic because elite cornerback Byron Jones will be able to put the clamps on No. 1 receiver Corey Davis. Mariota will have to rely on the likes of Taywan Taylor and Tajae Sharpe, which means he’ll need to utilize his legs as much as possible.

RECAP: This spread is way too high. The advance line on this game was Dallas -4. It’s now -6.5. Neither of these teams played last week, so the movement has to be based on the Cooper trade, which is just absurd. Cooper is an overrated player, and we’ve seen receivers struggle to integrate into new offenses following mid-season trades. I don’t see why Cooper should move the line 2.5 points.

Furthermore, I think that Dallas -4 was too high to begin with! The Cowboys and Titans seem close to even to me, and I could argue that the Titans are the better team. With the Jaguars falling off, Dallas’ marquee victory of the year looks worse. The Cowboys have otherwise beaten the Lions and Giants at home. Meanwhile, the Titans also beat the Jaguars – without their quarterback being healthy, to boot – and they also upset the Eagles and came within a two-point conversion of defeating the Chargers in London.

Given how illogical this spread is, I’m going to put at least three units on the Titans. I may move it to four by kickoff, especially if a +7 line emerges.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS/PICK LOCKED IN: The sharps have jumped all over the Titans, knocking this spread down to +5.5 in many books. However, it’s still +6 at Bovada (-110) and Bookmaker (-115). I’m going to lock in three units on Tennessee before this spread falls any further.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cowboys could be missing two defensive linemen, which is huge considering that this is the heart of their roster. They rely so much on their front seven, so it’ll be a huge boon for Tennessee if Marcus Mariota sees less pressure. The sharps have been pounding the Titans.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: While tons of sharp money is on the Titans, there’s been some push-back on Dallas -4.

MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: The public is coming in on Dallas after being 50-50 on this game throughout the week. This was one of the worst week for sportsbooks ever, so they’ll really need the Titans to cover tonight. I bet three units on +6, and I would still support such a wager at +5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public has come in on the Cowboys pretty hard, as expected, and yet this line dropped to +4 because the sharps have been pounding the Titans. The sportsbooks lost what could be a record amount of money Sunday, and they need Tennessee to cover. I loved the Titans at +6, and I still really like them at +4 or +4.5.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 57% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

The underdog is 79-54 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Jason Garrett is 5-2 ATS after a bye.

Cowboys are 19-30 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Opening Line: Cowboys -4.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Cowboys 20, Titans 17
Titans +6 (3 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$300
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 28, Cowboys 14

Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games
Oakland at San Francisco, Chicago at Buffalo, Kansas City at Cleveland, NY Jets at Miami, Detroit at Minnesota, Atlanta at Washington, Tampa Bay at Carolina, Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Chiefs -1.5, Saints +8.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200

I really like this teaser. I usually bet up from sub-three to above-seven, but the Chiefs at -1.5 seem like a lock. The Saints, meanwhile, should be able to keep the game within a touchdown, thanks to Drew Brees.

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)