NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 9, 11:30 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 1. Total: 45.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -6.5 (Wentz) or Eagles -3.5 (Foles).
Thursday, Sept 6, 8:20 PM

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

Football is back! I’ve never been so excited for a season to begin. If you don’t believe me, just consider that I posted two Week 1 selections prior to the preseason games!

I’ve been working very hard this offseason. I re-watched all of 2017 despite getting married and going on my honeymoon. I also practiced my handicapping. I went back to old games that I didn’t know the score of, and I would read what I wrote on the site, then figure out what I was doing right and wrong. It was a cool project, and I think I’ve learned quite a bit. I’m confident this will be my best season ever, and we’ve gotten off to a good start with the preseason results (11-10, +$445) despite some horrible luck in a couple of the games.

Some things I wanted to note:

1. I’ve locked in picks before. I’m going to continue to do that this year, but I’ll handle it differently. When a pick is locked in, I’ll have a designation of where you can find that price where the selection is. So, for example, I locked in the Browns +6 back in July. That’s why that pick will say “Browns +6 – Westgate.” I’ll use online sportsbooks for all of my other selections. I recommend having accounts at multiple books so you can shop for the best price. I’m currently with 5Dimes, BetUS, Bovada and Bookmaker, among a couple of others, but those are the primary ones I’ll focus on. I recently joined Bookmaker, and I’m impressed with the various options they have for every game.

At any rate, I’ll announce which picks are locked in on Twitter (@walterfootball) and Facebook. If there is no sportsbook designation where the pick is, the selection isn’t locked in yet, and I’m still looking for the best price.

2. If you want someone else’s opinion, tune into the podcast (you can subscribe on iTunes as well). Kenny and I will break down all the games every week. Kenny was way above .500 last year, and we’re doing a joint Super Contest entry this year (WFPodcast), so that should be fun.

3. I did the math, and I’ve handicapped 4,802 regular-season NFL games throughout the near 19 years I’ve been running this site. That means that whatever the sixth game is in Week 14 will be my 5,000th regular-season NFL pick, which is pretty wild.

Speaking of the “almost 19 years,” my official 19th-year anniversary will be on Nov. 7. It’s hard to believe it’s been nearly 20 years since I began the site in my Internet class during my senior year in Central High School. If anyone has any cool ideas for what I could do for my 20th-year anniversary, please let me know!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: This spread was off the board for a while in the preseason when Nick Foles was banged up with a shoulder injury. With Foles seemingly hurt, and Carson Wentz still a major question mark, there was some concern that third-string quarterback Nate Sudfeld would have to start.

Foles, as it turns out, is just fine, and he’s getting the nod for this game. That’s the good news. The bad news, as perceived by the public and media, is that Foles struggled mightily in the preseason. He lost to the Browns by the score of 5-0 in the dress rehearsal. This prompted the spread to plummet from -3.5 to -1.5, which is just absurd. Foles, if you may remember, struggled at the end of last year before playing out of his mind in the postseason. Also, the Eagles played just four offensive starters versus Cleveland. The primary running backs and receivers were all out. Their left tackle and center were both sidelined. Foles’ supporting cast, minus Alshon Jeffery, will all be on the field in this contest, so Philadelphia’s offense will look nothing like the unit that struggled versus Cleveland.

The Eagles’ offensive line being completely intact is problematic for the Falcons. A major reason why Philadelphia beat Atlanta in the playoffs last year was because it pushed the Falcons around in the trenches. The Falcons lost a couple of defensive linemen this offseason – Adrian Clayborn, Dontari Poe – while the Eagles will have Jason Peters back from injury, so Philadelphia’s advantage in this aspect will only be stronger this time.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: If the Eagles have the top offensive line in the NFL, the Falcons might have the second-best unit in the league. The group will be better this year than it was in 2017 because of the addition of new guard Brandon Fusco. I imagine the Falcons will have success in the trenches versus most teams.

The Eagles, however, are not most teams. Their defensive front was stellar last year, and it’ll be even better this season with Michael Bennett and Haloti Ngata joining the ranks. Those two will help improve the run, so I don’t expect Devonta Freeman having much success finding lanes to burst through. I do think that Freeman could be a better factor as a receiver out of the backfield, thanks to the suspension of linebacker Nigel Bradham, who is stellar in coverage.

Freeman will need to come up big as a receiver because Matt Ryan will be hounded by Philadelphia’s elite pass rush. The Eagles put tons of pressure on him in the playoff game, and I don’t see that changing in the rematch. A great offensive coordinator would be able to solve that problem, but the Falcons didn’t fire Steve Sarkisian for some reason.

RECAP: One of my favorite things to do in Week 1 is to play against public overreaction. Casual bettors have seen and heard from the media that the Eagles have struggled to score in the preseason. The Cleveland-Philadelphia dress rehearsal was one of the most-watched preseason games in years. The eyeballs saw the Eagles fail to score against pitiful Cleveland, so how can Philadelphia keep up with Atlanta!?

This is extremely ignorant. As mentioned, the Eagles had just four offensive starters on the field in that game. That team is not going to resemble the one we’ll see Thursday night. This is a team that thrives in an underdog role, and while they’re technically favored, all of the public action coming in on Atlanta will make it seem like the Eagles are underdogs again. In fact, I fully expect some of the talking heads on TV to exclaim, “Can the Eagles possibly beat the Falcons!?” and I’ll be shouting, “They’re favored, you idiots!”

I love Philadelphia in this situation. The team, even with Foles, is better than Atlanta, yet the spread is less than three. That’s absurd to me. The Eagles, with Foles, should be favored by 3.5 or four. Two points of value isn’t insane, but going through the key number of three is huge. Also, I love that the psychological edge favors Philadelphia as well. The team has been hearing criticism all month, so I expect it to be completely prepared to beat the poorly coordinated Falcons.

PICK LOCKED IN: I’m locking in the Eagles at -1 -105, which is available at Bookmaker, for four units. This spread has continue to plummet, which I think is ridiculous. The Eagles, once again, are the better team than the Falcons, even with Nick Foles, so they should be favored by more than three. I like -1 -105; this line could keep falling, but I’ll risk missing out on -1 +100. We could see this drop to PK, but -1 -105 is better than PK -110.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line is down to pick, and even +1 at Bovada. Like I said, I’m fine with -1 -105, as the Eagles should be able to win this game.

By the way, Kenny (from the podcast) and I have our video up for the Week 1 NFL Picks:

FINAL THOUGHTS: I had ESPN on for some reason, and I quickly remembered why I don’t watch that stupid channel anymore. The headline on tonight’s SportsCenter was, “The Eagles have so many questions going into the season!” Uhh… what? Why? The only question is when Carson Wentz will be healthy. That’s it. This sort of public stupidity makes me even more confident about the Eagles. Everyone suddenly believes they’re not good because they lost 5-0 to the Browns in a game where they had just four offensive starters on the field. Whoop dee doo. The public will likely be fooled again. I would still recommend four units on Philadelphia, and even five isn’t crazy. The best number is +1 -105 at Bovada. I have -1 -105, so if the Eagles win by one (or tie) I’ll be sad, but this should be a win.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

Because the Eagles’ backups couldn’t score against the Browns, everyone now believes Atlanta will win this game. The Eagles will be in their underdog role again.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles couldn’t score with their backups in the preseason, so the public is betting against them. OK.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 68% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Matt Ryan is 19-7 ATS in night games.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Falcons 20
Eagles -1 -105 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$400
Over 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 18, Falcons 12

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)
Line: Steelers by 6. Total: 41.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Browns -1.
Sunday, Sept 9, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have three overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

I’ve never published a Week 1 pick this early before. If you think I’m crazy for doing so, I believe that’s a poor mindset to have. The sharps have been pounding the Browns more than any other team thus far. They’ve bet them heavily at +7, +6.5, and now +6. I was doing some prep work for Week 1 this morning (July 29), and I saw that several books have already moved to +5.5. There are some still listing it at +6, including BetUS as well as Bovada (albeit at -115). There might be some other books that still have +6. If you love the Browns like I do, I’d bet it now. In fact, I already have…

I made this wager when I was in Las Vegas in the middle of July. I crossed off some of the stuff on that slip in case someone wanted to try something nefarious. And the amount should’ve been $880 to win $800, but I had many other bets to make (mostly futures – see my NFL Season Betting Props here.) It should have been $880 to win $800 because this is my September Pick of the Month, and I’ll tell you why…

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Anyone afraid to bet the Browns is making the egregious error of focusing on what has occurred in the past and not what will transpire in the future. The most successful bettors and stock traders think with the latter dynamic in mind. The Browns were atrocious against the spread last year because they had countless red-zone interceptions. DeShone Kizer was an abomination in that facet. He was actually fine between the 20s, but he made countless mistakes when getting closer to the goal line. I’m currently re-watching the 2017 season – I’m up to Week 12 as of this writing – and it’s appalling how many red-zone blunders Kizer and his teammates were guilty of in 2017.

If Kizer were still quarterbacking the Browns, this would be a non-wager. Fortunately, Kizer is gone. The Browns now have a professional quarterback at the helm in Tyrod Taylor. Make no mistake, Taylor isn’t great, but he’s a viable starter, which is something the Browns haven’t possessed in a long time. In fact, I would argue that Taylor is the best signal-caller the Browns have possessed since Tim Couch when he was healthy in the early 2000s (he played very well in 2002.) That might seem crazy, but here’s the list of quarterbacks who have led their team in passing each year since 1999:

Tim Couch x4

Kelly Holcomb

Jeff Garcia (old, decrepit version)

Trent Dilfer (old, decrepit version)

Charlie Frye

Derek Anderson x2

Brady Quinn

Colt McCoy x2

Brandon Weeden

Jason Campbell

Brian Hoyer

Josh McCown

Cody Kessler

DeShone Kizer

Look at how horrible that list is! Taylor may not be very good, but he’s better than all of those guys, save for Couch when healthy and perhaps Anderson in 2007. Taylor can scramble and doesn’t make mistakes. He led the Bills to the playoffs. The Bills! And this Browns team has more offensive talent than Buffalo did last year. Carlos Hyde is a major upgrade at running back, while Jarvis Landry offers a dynamic weapon in the slot. David Njoku will be better in his second year, while Josh Gordon seems to be focused for the first time in a while. The offensive line, aside from left tackle, is also pretty stout.

And here’s the thing: Pittsburgh’s defense sucks! The Steelers couldn’t stop anyone except T.J. Yates late last year after Ryan Shazier went down. Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton and Blake Bortles all shredded the Steelers. Pittsburgh also had major issues stopping the run without Shazier. The front office failed to replace Shazier, making the Steelers extremely overrated because they won’t be able to contain most offenses this year.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers have plenty of major fantasy stars, which is one of the reasons why they’re overrated. Ben Roethlisberger! Le’Veon Bell! Antonio Brown! JuJu Smith-Schuster! How can anyone stop the Steelers!?

If the Steelers are at 100-percent capacity, their offense will be difficult to contain, for sure. However, there are lingering concerns heading into Week 1. Bell is holding out after a career-high number of touches last year. He did the same thing heading into 2017, and he got off to a slow start. He rushed for 32 yards on 10 carries against these very same Browns in Week 1 last year. Also, guard Ramon Foster suffered an injury in training camp. He may not be ready for the opener, and even if he is, he may not be completely healthy.

Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that the Browns made numerous upgrades to their defense this offseason. They brought in E.J. Gaines, Damarious Randall and Denzel Ward, all of whom will help the secondary. Then, there’s Myles Garrett, who was injured heading into 2017. He’s healthy now, and he has experience under his belt. He’ll be even more potent in his sophomore campaign. Cleveland’s defense isn’t great, but it looks to be pretty solid. Solid enough to slow down the Steelers a bit in Week 1.

RECAP: This spread is way too high. The casual public believes the Browns are still horrible, which is not the case anymore. They also believe the Steelers are one of the best teams in the NFL, even though their defense is horrible. If this game were to take place in Week 10 or so, I’m willing to bet the Steelers would be something close to -1. In fact, if these two teams are as even as I believe they are, the Browns could be short favorites. Getting +6 is ridiculous value.

It’s also worth noting that the Steelers tend to struggle in games like this. They’re very poor as big road favorites because their spreads tend to be inflated in their favor because they’re such a public team. They were favored by 8.5 in Cleveland in Week 1 last year, and they won by just three in that game despite getting a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. Oh, and Ryan Shazier played in that game, while Myles Garrett sat out. That’s a hell of a swing!

This is my September NFL Pick of the Month. This spread is way too high, and I wanted to make sure people reading this got +6 if they liked the Browns as much as I do. There’s a chance all of the +6s will be gone before long, so don’t wait if you want to bet this game. I did not.

TUESDAY UPDATE: Wow, this spread has plummeted all the way down to +3.5. Even if this wager loses, I’m happy I was able to get such great value with Cleveland.

There are two reasons why this spread has dropped:

1. The sharps have continued to pound Cleveland.

2. Le’Veon Bell hasn’t reported to the team yet.

Bell could still make his return, but if he doesn’t report in the next 48 hours, he won’t play. That’s huge, as he’s such a dynamic threat in the passing game. It would turn my projected line of Cleveland -1 to perhaps -2 or -2.5, so I still love the Browns. At +3.5, however, it wouldn’t be my Pick of the Month; six is such a big key number in the NFL now, especially because of the overtime rules changes. I hope everyone reading this was able to get +6, but that’s probably not the case so I may have a bonus September NFL Pick of the Month later this month if I love a game enough.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It doesn’t sound like Le’Veon Bell will play, as he’s still holding out, but I’d rather have +6 with Bell on the field than +4 and no Bell. Six is just such a key number in the NFL with the new overtime rule change. I still like the Browns at +4, but wouldn’t go eight units on it. So, like I said, I’ll have a make-up NFL Pick of the Month later for those who couldn’t get the +6, which was available back in July.

SATURDAY NOTES: The best current line I see is +4 at Bovada, which I would take for four units. Even at +3.5, the Browns are one of my Supercontest picks. Meanwhile, you may have heard that there’s expected to be rain and heavy winds, with gusts reaching up to 40 mph. That should benefit Cleveland, as the Browns have the better running game with Le’Veon Bell out. I also like the under because of the weather.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s rainy and windy, so this should be a low-scoring game. The sharps agree, as they pounded the Browns last night all the way down from +4.5 to +3.5. Go, Browns, go!

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

This has the makings of a typical Steelers stink bomb.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

No surprise that the Steelers are getting public money.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 65% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Ben Roethlisberger is 47-28 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Steelers are 24-36 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Steelers -7.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Rain, 61 degrees. HEAVY WIND, 30 mph.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Browns 17, Steelers 16
Browns +6 (8 Units – September NFL Pick of the Month) – Westgate — Correct; +$800
Under 41 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Steelers 21, Browns 21

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)
Line: Vikings by 6.5. Total: 46.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -3.5.
Sunday, Sept 9, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot.

The highest-bet sides were 43-40-4 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Rams -4.5

Ravens -7

Falcons +1.5

Saints -9.5

As usual, the public is buying too much into what it saw and heard on ESPN. The Raiders will stink without Khalil Mack! The Bills can’t block! The Eagles can’t score! It’s like this betting thing is so easy.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: When I was in Las Vegas back in July, I took out a +260 prop on the Vikings not to make the playoffs this year. I have numerous concerns about Minnesota, beginning with Kirk Cousins. I’ve said this repeatedly in the offseason, but for those of you who weren’t around to hear my nonsensical rants, I likened the Vikings “upgrading” their quarterback situation to what the Ravens did in the 2001 offseason. Baltimore won the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer in 2000. Dilfer was just a game manager, but he worked so well in that system. The Ravens brought in the more-talented Elvis Grbac, thinking he would improve their offense. Instead, the opposite happened. Baltimore regressed, as Grbac never took to the system.

I don’t think Cousins will necessarily be an outright failure like Grbac was, but I worry about the transition. Case Keenum had such a great rapport with the receivers, and I think this is something that could take Cousins some time to establish. Cousins is a perennially slow starter anyway, so I’d say it’s very possible that he could be much better in November than he is in September.

The thing is, however, that it may not matter because of the offensive line. That would be my primary worry about the Vikings. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. They lost guard Joe Berger to retirement, and center Pat Elflein is injured. Worst of all, offensive line coach Tony Sparano passed away this offseason, so the blockers should be worse without his excellent coaching. That doesn’t bode well against the 49ers, who have some talent on the defensive line with DeForest Buckner and a seemingly improved Solomon Thomas. The secondary, meanwhile, has gotten an upgrade as well with Richard Sherman joining the group. Sherman may not be 100 percent coming off an injury, but he’ll be better than what San Francisco had last year.

The one caveat here is that the 49ers won’t have stud linebacker Reuben Foster because of a suspension. I’d question the 49ers’ ability to stop the run without Foster, but the Vikings can’t block, so I don’t think that’s too much of a concern. Containing Kyle Rudolph might be, however.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Vikings don’t have nearly as many worries on this side of the ball. They added Sheldon Richardson to an already-stacked defensive front, so running against them will be very difficult. I also question if San Francisco will be able to pass protect very well in the interior. The 49ers were able to obtain an upgrade at center with Weston Richburg, but they have question marks at both guard spots at the moment.

That said, Kyle Shanahan is a genius offensive coach, and I believe he’ll be able to create a game plan against the Vikings’ defensive weakness, which is the screen game. It would really help if Jerick McKinnon were involved, but I always thought he was an overrated commodity. Matt Breida should be able to function nearly as well in that regard, so he’ll expose the Vikings linebackers’ liability in coverage.

I also believe the 49ers will be able to attack downfield. Jimmy Garoppolo is an excellent quarterback, far superior to Nick Foles, who torched Minnesota’s secondary in the NFC Championship. Outside of Xavier Rhodes, there are some liabilities at cornerback that an intelligent signal-caller like Garoppolo will be able to exploit.

RECAP: This is one of my top plays of the week. I absolutely love the 49ers and the +6, which seems like a completely absurd spread to me.

The 49ers were very competitive last year, even without Garoppolo. They finished with 10 losses, yet half of them were by three points or fewer. Those games all could’ve gone the other way, so imagine that instead of 6-10, they finished 11-5. What would this spread be in that case? Three? Because that’s probably what it should be.

These teams are close to being even in my book. That may seem puzzling to those who like to focus on what happened in the past, but I prefer to focus on what will happen in the future. To me, the 49ers, who legitimately could have won 10-plus games last year, will be better with Garoppolo having a full offseason to work with his improved receiving corps. The Vikings, on the other hand, will definitely be worse than last year’s version because of the sharp regression of the offensive line. I actually believe the 49ers are slightly better than the Vikings when factoring in Elflein’s injury, but because Minnesota plays so well at home, I moved this spread from -2.5 to -3.

Still, three points of value is enormous, especially when going through two major key numbers (3, 6) and a minor one (4). Also, the idea of getting six points with a stud quarterback like Garoppolo is very appealing, as he’ll fully be able to engineer a back-door cover if he needs it, which I doubt he will.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is up to +6.5, despite the fact that it was announced that the Vikings’ starting center will be out. I don’t know why a team that can’t block would be favored by nearly a touchdown. I’m still holding out for +7.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m still waiting for +7. I’m seeing +6.5 -105 in multiple books. That’s tempting, but it’s possible we could see +7. There’s +7 -115 at Bovada, but +7 -110 is what I’m waiting for.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sigh, I should’ve taken +7 -115 yesterday. That’s gone. The best number I see is +6 -105 at Bovada. The sharps bet the 49ers this morning, erasing all the +6.5s off the board.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

The Vikings were great last year, so the public believes that’ll be the case again.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 70% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS as a starter.

Vikings are 25-9 ATS at home since 2014.

Mike Zimmer is 8-3 ATS with extra time to prepare since 2015.

Opening Line: Vikings -5.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Vikings 20
49ers +6 -105 (5 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$525
Under 46 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Vikings 24, 49ers 16

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)
Line: Colts by 1. Total: 47.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -6 (Luck) or Colts -2.5 (Brissett).
Sunday, Sept 9, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. This is from my NFL Power Rankings:

I posted this on Facebook yesterday, so let’s get to some new hate mail:

I like that BlueCarrot said I “just” lost all credibility, which means I had credibility in the first place. That’s a win in my book!

I don’t have either the Rams or Jaguars even making the playoffs, so I guess we’ll see who is right. If I’m wrong, I’ll own up to it. If OliveFries is wrong, we’ll never hear from him again.

I love this. Kirk Grbac, I mean Kirk Cousins has produced for three seasons? Produced what? Choke-job performances in big games? Horrible starts to each season? What has he produced except for meaningless yards, exactly?

How dare this guy imply that I can’t be a hypocrite on here? If I want to be a hypocrite, no one can do anything to stop me from being one!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: As a disclaimer, I have a two-unit bet on the Colts at -2.5. I placed this while I was in Bermuda on my honeymoon back in mid-May. Yes, I’m that degenerate.

It was during my honeymoon when it was announced that Andrew Luck was throwing a football again. So, thinking this spread would soar in the wake of that announcement, I hopped onto BetUS and wagered two units on the Colts. Unfortunately, that backfired a little bit. Sure, the line has moved up to -3, but Luck didn’t quite look like himself this preseason. He appeared very rusty, and he hasn’t shown off his arm strength at all. That’s a major red flag, and I now worry that I will lose $220.

Meanwhile, the offensive line is yet again a concern. The left side of the front seems fine, thanks to Quenton Nelson being the sixth-overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. However, the Colts are starting an untested rookie in Braden Smith at right guard and the anemic J’Marcus Webb at right tackle. Stud defensive end Carlos Dunlap has to be licking his chops at the opportunity to embarrass Webb. Meanwhile, Geno Atkins and Andrew Billings should be able to create havoc in the interior, just as they did versus Buffalo in the preseason game everyone saw.

All hope isn’t lost for the Colts, however. Cincinnati’s defense won’t be at full strength because stud linebacker Vontaze Burfict is serving a suspension. The Bengals’ stop unit has been markedly worse in the past without Burfict, so Luck should be able to exploit some bad matchups with his tight ends and pass-catchers out of the backfield.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: If you’re wondering why the Bengals struggled so much last year, look no further than the offensive line. The blocking unit had just one viable starter last year in Clint Boling. Unsurprisingly, Boling is the only starter to return in 2018.

The Bengals moved back in the draft by trading for left tackle Cordy Glenn, then spent a first-round pick on center Billy Price. Right guard and right tackle are still major question marks – Jabaal Sheard should have a big game as a result – but the Bengals were at least able to shore up the left side of their front. Andy Dalton, as a result, should have enough time to find A.J. Green downfield on occasion. Green had a bit of a down year in 2017, but rededicated himself to football, so it should pay off – especially in a matchup like this. The Colts have some terrible cornerbacks who won’t be able to cover Green whatsoever.

Also, speaking of liabilities Indianapolis has on defense, the team might own the worst linebacking corps in the NFL, though that could change if rookie Darius Leonard thrives. Still, I think it’s safe to say that stopping the run and covering tight ends will be an issue for the Colts, so I expect big things from Joe Mixon and Tyler Eifert in this contest.

RECAP: If I knew Luck were 100 percent, I’d stand by my multi-unit wager on the Colts. I’d love the idea of Luck going against the Bengals with Burfict being out of the lineup. However, I’m not fully convinced that Luck is anywhere close to being fully healthy, so even though I’ve alrady bet on this game, I’d recommend staying away until we have more information on how effective Luck happens to be.

For office-pool purposes, I’d still take the Colts at -3 or less. Burfict’s absence is enormous enough for me to side with Indianapolis, even if Luck isn’t quite right.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We have our first unit change. I’ve been listening to various podcasts and such, and the love for the Bengals is mystifying. They’ll be better this year for sure, but it sounds like everyone believes Cincinnati will win this game outright despite the Colts being favored by a field goal. As mentioned, the Bengals’ defense has been much worse without Vontaze Burfict, so I like Indianapolis more now. I’m going to make this a two-unit selection.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a high number of wagers on the Bengals, as there’s a ton of hype for them because of how they played against the Bills in a preseason game. With this line dropping below -3, I’m debating putting a third unit on this game, though Anthony Castonzo’s questionable status gives me some pause.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is pounding the Bengals, while the sharps are offering no resistance. That could be because Anthony Castonzo is out. That’s unfortunate, but I still like the Colts for a couple of units. The best line is -1 -105 at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

The Bengals are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 77% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Bengals are 39-23 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Andrew Luck is 24-12 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Bengals 23
Colts -1 -105 (2 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$210
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 34, Colts 23

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)
Line: Ravens by 7.5. Total: 39.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -4.
Sunday, Sept 9, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: I’ve discussed some bad offensive lines already, but no team has a worse front than the Bills, who were completely embarrassed in the preseason. They managed to get two quarterbacks injured in three games, losing A.J. McCarron for a couple of weeks, then getting Josh Allen hit with a potential concussion. Their inability to block the Bengals whatsoever was a real eye-opener. I think overreacting to preseason games is silly, but this is a concern I had for Buffalo heading into the exhibition campaign. The Bills lost Cordy Glenn, Eric Wood and Richie Incognito this offseason, so is anyone surprised that the team can’t block whatsoever?

Making matters worse, the Bills will be tasked to stop Baltimore’s tremendous front seven from flooding the backfield. I expect all of the Ravens’ defensive linemen to have big games, so it’s a good thing that Buffalo opted to name Nathan Peterman as the starter in this game. Throwing Josh Allen into the fire would have been disastrous for his growth, as he may have developed David Carr syndrome from being hit too often in the backfield.

The one positive going for the Bills is that LeSean McCoy hasn’t been suspended as a result of some off-the-field problems this offseason. McCoy won’t have many running lanes at his disposal, but he can be used as a weapon out of the backfield. Meanwhile, Kelvin Benjamin won’t have to line up against the suspended Jimmy Smith, which is also a plus. Of course, it won’t matter if Peterman won’t have enough time to locate Benjamin downfield.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I would’ve hesitated to even think about laying seven with the Ravens in recent years because Joe Flacco has been so bad. Flacco regressed exponentially since winning the Super Bowl following the 2012 season. As we know now, that was because of multiple reasons. We were aware of the injuries, but now it’s become known that Flacco put zero effort into his craft, as this offseason was his first in five years in which he threw to his own receivers prior to training camp. That’s mind-boggling to me.

Nevertheless, Flacco is motivated in the wake of the Lamar Jackson selection, so I expect him to play better this year, especially with newly acquired receivers Michael Crabtree and John Brown, who appears to be healthy for once. It might be difficult for Crabtree to get open versus excellent second-year cornerback Tre’Davious White, but the other side of the field will be way more fruitful, as the Bills replaced the departed E.J. Gaines with Vontae Davis, who is so decrepit that he needs to be in a retirement home.

The Ravens should also have success pounding the ball versus the Bills. Buffalo overpaid for Star Lotulelei, while first-round rookie Tremaine Edmunds is still finding his way. Alex Collins was excellent last year, and I believe he’ll have another great performance.

RECAP: If I had any faith in the Bills’ offensive line, I’d be on Buffalo for several units. The Ravens have to play on Thursday night next week, and they’ll be battling the Bengals, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. That’s a huge game, and I suspect that they may overlook the Bills.

However, that may not matter because the Bills seem like the worst team in the NFL. Their inability to block is something that’s going to keep me from wagering on them at all this season, in all likelihood. It’s a shame, but I’ll have to pass on this game with a zero-unit nod toward Baltimore.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is up to -7.5 in most books, but still -7 -115 in places like BetUS. The public is pounding the Ravens, while the sharps just aren’t taking the underdog. I don’t blame them, as Buffalo can’t block. I’m still zero on the Ravens.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed for me, despite the Ravens being favored by more than seven now. If the Bills didn’t have an abysmal offensive line, I’d be picking them. If the Ravens didn’t play in four days, I’d be betting them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, nothing has changed for me. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The public is all over Baltimore.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

The Ravens have to play in four days against the Bengals.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Everyone is betting on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 76% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Bills are 14-21 ATS since November 2011 as a road underdog.

Ravens are 27-19 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

Opening Line: Ravens -6.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Rain, 65 degrees. Mild wind, 18 mph.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 20, Bills 9
Ravens -7.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 39 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Ravens 47, Bills 3

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 42.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Giants -1.5.
Sunday, Sept 9, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Jaguars.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. The big talking point this preseason was the new helmet rule. There have been so many penalties this offseason for helmet-to-shoulder, helmet-to-stomach and helmet-to-knee hits. Anything involving a player leading with them helmet has been flagged.

I think I speak for everyone when I say that this has been an abomination of a rule change. It’s unfortunate that players can suffer long-term effects from concussions, but they know what they’re getting into. Old players didn’t have such luxury, but the new ones do. And they are OK with it. There was a player – I can’t remember who it was – who showed up to training camp with a shirt that said, “Make Football Violent Again.” Players want to be able to hit hard. They’ve chosen to play football for a reason. No one is making them play this game.

Now, don’t get me wrong. Player safety is very important. However, with the advances in medical technology, who’s to see this will even be much of an issue in 25 years? And besides, the NFL claims to care about player safety, but all they worry about are the lawyers. They don’t want to get sued and lose countless money. So, with that in mind, they should just have the players all sign waivers so the greedy lawyers can go f**k themselves.

2. Want to know how it’s easy to tell if the NFL cares about player safety? We’d know if they cared if they’d stop it with these Thursday night games. The only teams that should be playing on Thursdays are those that have had byes the week beforehand. Thus, if the NFL really cared about player safety, they’d begin the Thursday night package on Week 5, since Week 4 is the initial bye week for teams. A helmet to the knee is peanuts compared to having players take the field after just three days of rest. It’s even absurd to compare the two.

Speaking of Thursday night games, I stand by what I wrote last year. If I were an NFL head coach, and I absolutely did not need to win the game, I’d rest my starters on Thursday night. That may sound extreme, but think of the Seattle example from last year. The Seahawks suffered countless injuries in their Thursday night affair – specifically to Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman – and thus, their season was over as a result. They won the game over Arizona, but at what cost? Had Pete Carroll sat his starters, he may have lost to the Cardinals, but he would’ve had his entire team healthy and ready to roll for the final games of the season. I’m willing to bet Seattle would’ve made the playoffs with a healthy Chancellor and Sherman.

If you’re still skeptical, think about it this way: There are plenty of instances of teams in the NBA resting their players. An NFL game means much more than an NBA contest because there are far fewer of them, but NBA teams do this repeatedly. One NFL game is worth five in the NBA, so if basketball teams can rest their players for five games, NFL teams can do it for one if it’s one of these horrible Thursday night contests.

I’d really love for an NFL head coach to do this. It would really foil Roger Goodell’s plan to harm the players by making them play on just three days of rest. Once one coach does this, others will follow, and then we’ll finally get rid of these miserable Thursday night games.

3. It’s still technically fantasy season, so allow me to vent my frustration with ESPN. I was waiting for a mechanic to look at my car one day in July, so I decided to Google “fantasy football sleepers” on my cell phone. One of the top sites to come up was ESPN.

You’d think the self-proclaimed “world-wide leader” would have some unusual sleepers, and to their credit, there were some. Their page contained 10 or so analysts with their projected sleepers. Two analysts, however, had an extremely unusual sleeper:

Jerick McKinnon.

Yeah. McKinnon. He’s a very unusual sleeper because his ADP back then was in the second or third round!

How in hell is that a sleeper? Why not just call Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott sleepers? That’s almost as dumb.

Whenever I read about ESPN having to fire more employees, I’ll think back to this. They continue to lose money because their analysts are mostly s**t.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Whenever a Jaguar fan e-mails me or posts on the comment board, asking why I hate their team, I reply, “I’d have your team winning the Super Bowl if you replaced Blake Bortles with a top-15 quarterback.” It’s true. Bortles is a trash football player, and he was his usual horrible self this preseason. He was so bad that even the NFL Network analysts were making fun of him during the half-time show in both televised contests. Bortles threw careless interceptions and didn’t make any reads at the line of scrimmage. It was a poor effort on his part – almost as if he spent the entire offseason partying and nearly getting his car stolen, or something.

It’s really a shame that the Jaguars have to deal with this, but I expect more blunders from Bortles. The Giants had injuries on defense last year, so they should be closer to 2016 form even though Jason Pierre-Paul is no longer on the team. Olivier Vernon is still present to scream off the edge against poor left tackle Cam Robinson, while Janoris Jenkins and Landon Collins are stellar players in the secondary who could come up with some interceptions.

The Giants should also be stout versus the run, thanks to Snacks Harrison and Dalvin Tomlinson clogging the interior. However, New York continues to have a big liability at linebacker, so perhaps the Jaguars will be able to expose that weakness with throws to the running backs and newly acquired Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Like the Jaguars, the Giants have a quarterback weighing them down. Eli Manning is obviously much better than Bortles because he actually tries hard, but I expect Manning to shackle the New York offense a bit, which is a shame because the team has so many dynamic weapons. Odell Beckham Jr. is returning from injury; Saquon Barkley will be a potent threat out of the backfield; Evan Engram is expected to keep improving; and Sterling Shepard is blossoming into a solid No. 2 receiver.

Speaking of Shepard, he actually has the best matchup in this game. The Jaguars have a stellar defense, but they’ll be a bit worse this year because they lost two players from last year’s unit: Paul Posluszny and Aaron Colvin. Posluszny being absent will affect leadership more than anything else. Colvin’s departure, meanwhile, will make the Jaguars susceptible to slot receivers, so Shepard, who was a favorite target of Manning’s in the preseason, could have a big game.

Meanwhile, it’ll be impossible for the Jaguars to shut down Beckham and Barkley. They won’t be as productive as they’ll be in easier matchups, but it’s impossible to erase star players, even with defensive studs like Jalen Ramsey.

RECAP: This spread seems absurd to me. The Giants were one of the worst teams in the NFL last year because of countless injuries. They also weren’t as good as they looked in 2016, but I suspect they’ll be somewhere in between. Meanwhile, the Jaguars were a bit of a fraud last year because of Bortles. They also had the luxury of beating up on horrible AFC South quarterbacks – remember, they saw Deshaun Watson for a half when it was already a blowout, completely avoided Andrew Luck, and were swept by the Titans – and they had some dubious road results. They lost to the Blaine Gabbert-led Cardinals and Josh McCown-led Jets; were winning by the score of 10-7 at Cleveland midway through the fourth quarter; and were blown out by the 49ers. Why are they field-goal favorites over a Giant squad that will have Beckham and Barkley to inject life into the offense?

This is a classic overrated-versus-underrated matchup, as the Giants should be small favorites (I have it -1.5). The Jaguars are great in everyone’s eyes because they beat the Steelers in the playoffs, but Pittsburgh was leaking oil ever since losing Ryan Shazier. People are quick to forget that Jacksonville nearly lost to Buffalo at home the previous week.

I like the Giants for two units at +3 +100, which is available at Bovada. It was +3 +100 in other books, but moved to +3 -105 today. I suspect the sharps are betting the Giants, so I’d like to lock in +3 +100 while it’s still available.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m glad I locked in +3 +100 because those are gone; the best number I see is +3 -105 (many books), which is still appealing. There’s some sharp money coming in on the Giants, but not too much.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS II: I have two monitors up at all times this year to monitor real-time line movement, and I just saw the sharp books move the Jaguars to either -3 -101 or -3 -105. It looks like the sharps just put big bets on the Giants, so this spread could continue to shift. Bovada still has Giants +3 + 100 available.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line was once +3 +100. Now, it’s +3 -120. The sharps are on the Giants, despite Olivier Vernon’s impending absence.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Giants at +3, but not at +2.5, which makes sense. I locked the Giants in at two units back on Thursday, and I feel good about it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 54% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Jaguars are 35-67 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 11-32 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Eli Manning is 44-36 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Opening Line: Jaguars -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Rain, 62 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Giants 20, Jaguars 19
Giants +3 +100 (2 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$200
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jaguars 20, Giants 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)
Line: Saints by 10. Total: 49.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -12.
Sunday, Sept 9, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: .

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. There was a ton of talk this offseason about whether or not Central Florida should be considered a co-national champion from 2017. I say yes. The Golden Knights went undefeated, yet were unable to get a chance to take on Alabama, which lost a game. If a non-major-conference team goes undefeated, it should have an automatic invite into the college football playoff. If you don’t agree, then the following needs to happen:

All non-major conferences need to be relegated to Division I-AA, or the FCS, or whatever they call it now.

If you’re not going to give these teams a fair chance to compete for the championship, then they shouldn’t be in Division I-A. It’s that simple. Why are they in 1-A if they can’t compete for the 1-A championship? It’s absurd.

2. If you’re new to this site, you may not know that we post College Football Picks each week as well. I don’t cover every game as I do with the NFL, but I will have at least five picks posted each week. I was 3-2, +$200 in Week 1, so it was nice to get off to a good start.

3. I think I speak for everyone when I say that I’m glad college girls, erm, college football is back!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Both teams have a prominent player suspended for this game. The absence of Tampa’s major player is more significant, of course, because Jameis Winston is a quarterback rather than a running back like Mark Ingram. Ryan Fitzpatrick will start the first three weeks this season, which might end up being disastrous for Tampa and its lame-duck coach, Dirk Koetter.

The Buccaneers have several talented players on this side of the ball – primarily Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and emerging Chris Godwin – but it’s unclear if Fitzpatrick will be able to get them the ball, especially when considering that he’ll be playing behind a questionable offensive line. Left tackle Donovan Smith is out, so someone named Michael Liedtke will have to protect Fitzpatrick’s blind side. Right guard seems like a big problem position as well. Meanwhile, right tackle Demar Dotson is a solid protector, but he’ll have his hands full with the elite Cameron Jordan. It just seems like the Saints have matchup edges at every spot in the trenches, which will be problematic for the erratic Fitzpatrick.

Meanwhile, the Saints have the talent in the back seven to neutralize some of Tampa’s weapons. Marshon Lattimore is a shutdown cornerback who figures to slow down Evans, while an improved linebacking corps, featuring the newly acquired Demario Davis and finally healthy Alex Anzalone, should do a decent job on Howard.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Buccaneers made some moves this offseason to pick up a couple of solid defensive players, adding Jason Pierre-Paul and Beau Allen to the front. Vita Vea was acquired as well via the draft, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be playing for a while because of a calf injury.

Pierre-Paul and Allen will help put some heat on Drew Brees in this contest, but the secondary is still a major question mark. Vernon Hargreaves hasn’t been able to stay consistent throughout his career, while Brent Grimes turned 35 this offseason. And yet, they are much better when compared to the safety situation. The Buccaneers have very weak safety play – why they passed on Derwin James, I have no idea – and will struggle to defend Brees when he takes some deep shots as a consequence.

Of course, the Saints will try to use Alvin Kamara as both a runner and a receiver out of the backfield. In two games versus the Buccaneers last year, Kamara had 112 rushing yards and 168 receiving yards, so I doubt Tampa has suddenly developed an answer for such a dynamic player. Ingram is suspended, but Kamara should be perfectly fine handling a greater workload.

RECAP: The Saints are my pick to win the Super Bowl this year, so I’m not going to side against them in this contest. I think this spread should be about -12, which isn’t too far off from -9.5. There’s no reason to believe New Orleans won’t be focused – the Saints battle the Browns next week – so the team should be completely focused for the Buccaneers.

I like the Saints to cover, but laying this many points invites a back-door cover. We saw Fitzpatrick do well in garbage time in a couple of games last year, so I would not feel comfortable if New Orleans were up 14, and Fitzpatrick happened to be driving with three minutes remaining in regulation.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s tons of public money on the Saints, but it looks like the books don’t want to go to -10 because they fear sharp money on the Buccaneers. I would still take New Orleans if I had to, but have no interest in betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brent Grimes is out, so I wonder how in the world the Buccaneers are going to stop Drew Brees. This spread has now popped up to -10 in some books. New Orleans is still the side for me, but I worry about a back-door cover.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is -10 across the board, as the public is betting the Saints with no resistance from the sharps. I imagine the professional bettors want nothing to do with the Buccaneers because they are missing their top cornerback against Drew Brees.

The Psychology. Edge: .

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

No surprise that the action is on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 78% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 82-51 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Saints are 41-30 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Saints are 8-12 ATS as double-digit favorites under Sean Payton.

Opening Line: Saints -9.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Saints 30, Buccaneers 16
Saints -10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Survivor Pick (0-0) — WTF!?
Buccaneers 48, Saints 40

Houston Texans (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)
Line: Patriots by 6.5. Total: 49.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -4.
Sunday, Sept 9, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady and Walter White. I saved my Spam Mails from last year here, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones next week!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I mentioned in the previous capsule that the Saints are my pick to win the Super Bowl this year. Well, I have them battling the winner of this matchup, as I project the Patriots and Texans to battle in the AFC South.

I’m very high on the Texans this year. Deshaun Watson had some prolific performances last season despite having no experience. Now, Watson had an entire offseason to work with DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, and he has certainly taken advantage of that time. I mentioned repeatedly during the spring and summer that Watson had been working like a mad man in preparation of the 2018 campaign. I believe it’ll pay off, beginning with this matchup. Watson was 22-of-33 for 301 yards, two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions at New England last year, and that was only his second start.

The one concern I have for the Texans is their offensive line. They have several holes on the front, while the other spots are question marks. One question mark is second-year left tackle Julie’n Davenport, who has a ton of athletic potential. I’ll be interesting to see if Davenport has been able to develop at all, as his maturation is crucial in the impending matchup against newly acquired defensive end Adrian Clayborn. If Watson has enough time, he’ll have even more success exposing the Patriots than he did in Week 3 of last year.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots also have questions at left tackle, as newly acquired Trent Brown is expected to start there, replacing the departed Nate Solder. Brown has been a strong right tackle for the 49ers in recent seasons, but he has no experience on the blind side in the pros. Thus, I suspect Jadeveon Clowney will have his way with him. Meanwhile, New England also has to worry about Whitney Mercilus and a healthy J.J. Watt as well.

The Texans really missed Mercilus and Watt in the second half of the year in 2017, so having them back will be enormous. The Texans also made some important upgrades to the secondary, acquiring Tyrann Mathieu and Aaron Colvin in free agency. The Patriots have a pretty pedestrian receiving corps with Julian Edelman suspended, so the Texans should be able to slow down most of Tom Brady’s weapons.

Rob Gronkowski will be his usual dominant self, of course, while Brady will undoubtedly engineer a late fourth-quarter drive to give the Patriots a chance to win. But I believe the Texans have the talent on this side of the ball to limit the Patriots enough to give Watson a great shot to pull the upset once again.

RECAP: I was hoping to get +7 – I’m going to hold out for it – but I still like the Texans enough at +6 to bet a couple of units on them. This spread is a bit too high, as the books are inflating the Patriots and not respecting Houston enough, based solely on public perception. I also love the idea of getting six with a stud quarterback like Watson. As mentioned in the Vikings-49ers write-up, there’s a great chance that a tremendous quarterback like Jimmy Garoppolo – or Watson in this case – will be in a position to get a back-door cover, though Watson probably won’t even need it.

If you’re worried about going against Brady and his excellent spread record, consider this: Brady, in the past decade, is 91-64 against the spread, including 67-51 when favored by more than three. Thus, it’s foolish to bet against him. HOWEVER, he’s just 13-13 against the spread when favored by more than three in the first four weeks of the season. Why is the timing important? Well, think about the Golden State Warriors and LeBron James-led Cavaliers. They usually get off to somewhat sluggish starts, prompting ESPN to ask, “OMG ARE TEH WARRIORS N CAVUHLIERS GONG TO MAKE PLAYOFF!?” and then they tear things up beginning in the middle of the season. Elite, experienced teams know that they have to pace themselves, and that’s what the Brady-led Patriots have done over the years. Remember 2017? They lost the opener to the Chiefs, then fell to the Panthers and nearly dropped a game to Tampa. Then, they eventually got hot. That’s what elite, experienced teams do.

In summary, it’s safe to bet against Brady early in the season, so that’s what I’m going to do here. I’m taking the Texans for two units, but I plan on doubling my wager if +7 becomes available.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is +6.5 at Bovada (and also the Westgate, for those of you who are near Las Vegas.) I may increase this wager to three units if I can get +6.5 -105, but like I said, I’m still holding out for +7. No sharp action yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m getting the feeling that we’re not going to see +7. The only +6.5 I still see is at Bovada, and that’s with -115 juice. The best number I see is +6 -105 at BetUS.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both the public and sharps seem mixed on this one. I still like the Texans for a couple of units. The best number I can find is +6.5 -110 at 5Dimes.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 54% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Tom Brady is 222-68 as a starter (164-113 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -6.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Cloudy, 63 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Patriots 30, Texans 27
Texans +6.5 (2 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$220
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 27, Texans 20

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)
Line: Pick. Total: 43.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -3.
Sunday, Sept 9, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Titans.

Video of the Week: There’s an a**hole on YouTube or working for YouTube, but I don’t know who it is. There used to be so many NFL Primetime videos on YouTube, but someone has been purging them. I had one planned for the Video of the Week about a month ago, but it’s no longer on YouTube. In fact, most of them aren’t. This is one of the only ones I could find:

Whoever is responsible for deleting these precious NFL Primetime videos needs to be put into a rocket flying toward the sun.

MIAMI OFFENSE: I’ve referenced some bad offensive lines earlier on this page. The Dolphins have a stinker as well. They managed to retain right tackle Ja’Wuan James this offseason, and they added a decent left guard in Josh Sitton, but the rest of their blocking is questionable at best. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil has the potential to improve, but we haven’t seen signs of that yet. Center Daniel Kilgore and right guard Jesse Davis seem like they’re going to be major liabilities.

Fortunately for the Dolphins, they won’t have to worry about much of a Tennessee pass rush in this contest. Blocking Jurrell Casey will be problematic, but all of the Titans’ edge rushers are banged up. Brian Orakpo will play, but he’s nursing a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, Derrick Morgan and Harold Landry are expected to be out. Thus, Ryan Tannehill will have more pass protection than originally anticipated.

This is obviously a major boon for Tannehill in his return to action from his knee injury. Having Tannehill back under center is huge. That may seem like an odd thing to say, but he’s infinitely better than Jay Cutler, who just didn’t give a damn last year. Tannehill does, and he can scramble well while under pressure. He also has some new weapons to work with, including Danny Amendola, Mike Gesicki and Albert Wilson. Jarvis Landry is gone, but Tannehill and Amendola have had quite the rapport in training camp. The problem, however, is that the Titans have improved their secondary by signing Malcolm Butler and Kenny Vaccaro, so I wouldn’t expect too much success from Tannehill.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Speaking of struggling offenses, the Titans failed to move the ball very well in the preseason. This is not the end of the world, as exhibition results can be misleading, but it sounds like Marcus Mariota hasn’t quite taken to Matt LaFleur’s new system yet. There’s even a debate about whether LaFleur should be on the sideline, where Mariota wants him, or the coaches’ booth, where he happens to be more comfortable. If the Titans haven’t even figured this out yet, how are they going to score consistently?

The one thing going for them, at least pertaining to this matchup, is that Miami’s defensive line won’t be able to pressure Mariota very well. Ndamukong Suh is gone, so Tennessee’s middling interior blocking won’t be exposed. The Dolphins are much better on the edge with Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn, but the Titans own a pair of excellent tackles in Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin.

While Suh is gone, the Dolphins will at least have some reinforcements in linebackers Raekwon McMillan and Jerome Baker. Neither has played a regular-season snap yet, but both are very talented players who figure to improve a linebacking corps that was known as being one of the NFL’s worst last year. They should be able to help defend Derrick Henry on the ground and Delanie Walker and Dion Lewis aerially.

RECAP: The Titans have more talent than the Dolphins, but I think Miami is more prepared to win this game for two reasons. First, the fact that Mariota has struggled to acclimate himself into LaFleur’s offense has to be a concern if I’m a Tennessee fan. The Titans figure to improve exponentially once Mariota is comfortable in the system, but that doesn’t appear to be the case now.

Second, it’s going to be 90 and very humid in Miami on Sunday. The Dolphins will be wearing their white uniforms, which means the Titans will be melting under the Miami sun in their dark uniforms. The Dolphins used to have a tremendous home-field advantage in September in the past, but the NFL moved away from giving them home games in the initial month of the season for that reason. I guess the NFL has changed its mind or simply forgot, but the Dolphins are hosting 1 p.m. September games again, apparently.

I like the Dolphins a bit, but not enough to wager more than a unit on them. I’m actually going to lock it in now because 5Dimes has Pick +105 available, which is way more appealing than +1.5 -110, which is available at most other books.

One other thing of note: I’m betting a unit on the under. A study was done that shows that extremely hot games tend to go under, which makes sense because offensive linemen don’t function as well in the heat.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Derrick Morgan could play, but he won’t be 100 percent. Meanwhile, the Titans will be missing their talented right tackle, Jack Conklin, which is huge because the Dolphins have terrific edge rushers. This makes me like Miami a bit more, though I’m not sure if I’ll place a second unit on it yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: It looks like Derrick Morgan will play, but the Titans will be missing Jack Conklin, Rashaan Evans and Harold Landry. Missing some key players will hurt, while the depleted depth will be damaging when they’re wilting under the tropical Miami sun.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money creeping in on the Dolphins, who are now favored at Pinnacle. I still wouldn’t go more than a unit or two on Miami.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 54% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Underdog is 80-53 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 133 games.

Dolphins are 3-13 ATS in September home games since 2006.

Opening Line: Titans -1.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Partly cloudy with chance of light rain, 87 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Dolphins 16, Titans 13
Dolphins PK +105 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$105
Under 43.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Dolphins 27, Titans 20

Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games
Kansas City at LA Chargers, Seattle at Denver, Washington at Arizona, Dallas at Carolina, Chicago at Green Bay, NY Jets at Detroit, LA Rams at Oakland

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
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Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
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2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)