NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 10, 5:55 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games

Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at San Angeles Chargers (0-0)
Line: Chargers by 3.5. Total: 48.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Sept 9, 4:05 PM

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

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The 2018 Adventures of Tom Brady will begin next week, starting with…

To read the 2017 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts click the link!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: There are many reasons I’m high on the Chiefs this year, though two stick out more than anything else. And yet, one of them might be the reason why I pick against them in this game, but we’ll discuss that when I delve into the Chargers’ offense.

One of the primary reasons is Patrick Mahomes. I’ve been very high on Mahomes, as he has the best natural, raw ability of any quarterback Andy Reid has ever coached, and that includes Donovan McNabb. I also love Mahomes’ work ethic and football IQ. I think he’s going to be a great quarterback some day, and Reid, who has an uncanny eye for quarterbacking talent, agrees. He let go of Alex Smith after Smith had his best season, which was very telling. We’ve seen Mahomes play one regular-season game in his career, and he was very impressive in the finale last year versus Denver.

This, however, will be quite the test for Mahomes. The Chargers have an elite pass rush and a prolific secondary. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram have the advantage on the edge, so that could give Mahomes some problems. Mahomes has some tremendous play-makers at his disposal, but Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins could have issues versus the Chargers’ top-notch defensive backfield. Fortunately for Mahomes, he’ll also be able to throw to Travis Kelce, and I think Kelce should have a huge performance against a linebacking corps that is fairly middling.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The other primary reason for my belief in Kansas City was the expected return of Eric Berry. Everyone made a big deal about the Chiefs losing Marcus Peters this offseason, but I thought things would be OK because Berry, the superior player, would be returning from a torn Achilles. When we last saw Berry, he was locking down Rob Gronkowski in the 2017 opener. His absence was absolutely enormous last year, especially down the stretch when the Chiefs were rancid versus the run.

Berry, however, may not play in this game because of a sore heel. It’s safe to say that his absence would once again have a profound impact on how the Chiefs perform defensively. If Berry plays and is close to 100 percent, he’ll help contain Melvin Gordon, who is expected to have a larger share in the passing attack this year. Newly acquired linebacker Anthony Hitchens should help in that regard as well. If, however, Berry is out, Kansas City will struggle to stop the run, meaning Gordon will have a huge performance.

The Chiefs may have lost Peters, but they were able to obtain Kendall Fuller in the Alex Smith trade. Fuller will help slow down Keenan Allen, but I expect Allen to have a strong showing regardless. With the Chiefs owning one potent pass-rusher in Justin Houston, Philip Rivers should have plenty of time on most occasions to find Allen, as well as second-year Mike Williams, who will be seeing substantial playing time now that he’s healthy. Kansas City’s secondary is horrible outside of Fuller and Berry, so if Berry is out, Rivers will have a monstrous afternoon.

RECAP: The Chiefs have dominated this rivalry, claiming the past eight meetings. Thus, it’s strange to see the Chargers favored by three or 3.5, especially when their home-field advantage is very minimal.

That said, I’m hesitant to bet on Kansas City for the two reasons I like them so much. Mahomes will be a very good quarterback, but this is a difficult first real test for him. Meanwhile, Berry may not play in this game, which is enormous.

My pick hinges on Berry’s availability. If he plays, I’m picking the Chiefs, but not wagering on them because he may not be 100 percent. If he’s out, I’ll switch my selection to the Chargers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Eric Berry still isn’t practicing. Friday will be key for his availability. I want no part of Kansas City if Berry is out.

SATURDAY NOTES: Eric Berry’s not going to play, but I’m not switching my pick because Joey Bosa is out as well. I think the Berry absence hurts the Chiefs more than Bosa’s injury hurts the Chargers, so I don’t feel strongly about Kansas City.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’d love to like any of these late afternoon games enough to bet them, but I don’t. The Berry-less Chiefs aren’t worth a wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money pushed this line up to -3.5, but the sharps are getting crushed today with the Browns and 49ers getting blown out, and the Giants losing, so that may not mean anything.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 51% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Andy Reid is 14-7 ATS on the West Coast.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 83 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Chargers 23, Chiefs 21
Chiefs +3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 38, Chargers 28

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 42.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -4.
Sunday, Sept 9, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: If you replace Russell Wilson with a quarterback in the 20-25 range of starters, the Seahawks would go 2-14 at best. The talent on their roster has become very depleted. Most of the departures this offseason occured on defense, but the offensive line is still in shambles. Left tackle Duane Brown, while OK, is not nearly the blocker he once was, and center Justin Britt is decent, but that’s it. The Seahawks have three major holes on their front, which is not an ideal situation versus the Broncos.

Von Miller has a dream matchup versus inept right tackle Germain Ifedi, while Derek Wolfe, who should be healthy at the moment, gets to beat up on right guard D.J. Fluker. Rookie edge rusher Bradley Chubb, who figures to be a stud, gets Brown in what seems like an even matchup, so he should be able to get some pressure as well. Of course, Wilson is used to this, so he’ll be able to scramble out of the pocket and find players downfield on occasion.

The problem with that, however, is that Wilson’s receiving corps isn’t as good this year. Doug Baldwin is still the top wideout, but he’s not 100 percent, per his own admission. Jimmy Graham is also gone, so he’ll be missed as a target in the end zone. Wilson will have to rely on the inefficient Tyler Lockett and decrepit Brandon Marshall. Meanwhile, the ground attack won’t get much versus Denver’s front.

DENVER OFFENSE: As for Seattle’s offseason departures that I referenced earlier, the team took major hits on the defensive line and in the secondary. Sheldon Richardson and Michael Bennett are both gone from the former group, while Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas won’t be on the field for the Seahawks come Sunday. The Seahawks still have an All-Pro linebacker in Bobby Wagner, but outside of a couple of other decent players, that’s about it.

That said, it’s a bit odd that the Seahawks would have a nice matchup on this side of the ball, considering Denver’s upgrade at quarterback. Case Keenum isn’t great by any means, but he’s much better than the garbage signal-callers Denver has possessed since 2015. Keenum, however, loves to throw to the slot more than anything – which is why I love Emmanuel Sanders in fantasy this year – but Seattle’s best remaining member of the secondary is Justin Coleman, who covers the slot. He should be able to do a decent job on Sanders.

However, Keenum still has two other talented receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Courtland Sutton, and the running game should be better with Royce Freeman and Tarik Cohen-clone Phillip Lindsay in the backfield.

RECAP: I’m down on the Seahawks, so I’m going to be on Denver. That said, I only think the spread should be a point higher than it is, so I’m not going to rush to bet this game. If this spread were -2.5, I’d consider a wager, but -3 is a no play because the most likely result in this game is Denver winning by exactly three.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: In a surprising turn of events, Earl Thomas ended his holdout and has begun practicing. It sounds like he’ll play, which makes me re-think this selection. I may still go with Denver, but Seattle is much more appealing now that Thomas could be on the field.

SATURDAY NOTES: Earl Thomas is playing, which ends any appeal Denver had. That said, the Seahawks still have numerous injuries, so I would take the Broncos if I had to.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are betting the Broncos, as they are -3 -120 or -3 -125. They could hit -3.5 soon.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I thought the Broncos might hit -3.5, but that has not been the case. This is still a non-play.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
The cat’s out of the bag that the Seahawks stink, apparently.

Percentage of money on Denver: 63% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Russell Wilson is 14-6 ATS as an underdog.

Seahawks are 36-48 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Opening Line: Broncos -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Sunny, 86 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Broncos 21, Seahawks 17
Broncos -3 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 27, Seahawks 24

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 42.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -4.
Sunday, Sept 9, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: Both of these teams are missing key offensive linemen. For the Cowboys, center Travis Frederick could miss the entire season with a horrible auto-immune disease. Hopefully Frederick can make a quick recovery, but in the meantime, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott won’t have as much success without him. Frederick’s backup isn’t the only hole on the offensive line. Left guard Connor Williams was selected in the second round of April’s draft, but several teams gave him fifth-round grades because he wasn’t lengthy enough to be a tackle, and he wasn’t strong enough to be a guard.

Frederick’s absence and Williams’ weakness will be a big problem in this matchup because the Panthers boast a stellar defensive front seven. Defensive tackle Kawann Short is going to dominate the trenches, creating opportunities for stellar linebackers Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson. I also have concerns about right tackle La’el Collins being able to block Julius Peppers.

Prescott’s limited time in the pocket will be a problem, especially as he becomes acclimiated with throwing to new weapons. Both Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are gone, so Prescott doesn’t yet have the same sort of chemistry with replacements Michael Gallup, Allen Hurns and Blake Jarwin, which is a shame for Dallas because Carolina’s secondary is a real liability. Rookie cornerback Donte Jackson looks great, and safety Mike Adams is steady, but the other players in the defensive backfield stink. Meanwhile, the Panthers are tremendous versus the run, so they should be able to do a good job of keeping Elliott in check, especially when considering Dallas’ decline in blocking.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers have offensive line injuries as well. Right tackle Daryl Williams, their best player on the front, could be out or hobbled as he recovers from an injury. Left tackle Matt Kalil will definitely be absent, but that could be a blessing in disguise because he’s awful. Rookie Taylor Moton figures to be an upgrade, as he looked decent in preseason action.

That said, I wouldn’t trust Moton or a hobbled Williams to block Dallas’ terrific edge rushers. The Cowboys have a tremendous front line that just welcomed back Randy Gregory back from suspension. Gregory looked great in the preseason, so having him across from the prolific DeMarcus Lawrence will give Cam Newton major issues.

Dallas’ linebacking corps is looking stellar as well. The Panthers will attempt to get Christian McCaffrey in space, but Sean Lee and the improved and healthy Jaylon Smith will make sure the dynamic back doesn’t do much. Meanwhile, the Cowboys can be beaten over the top because of their mediocre safeties, but Carolina’s receiving corps is a question mark. Devin Funchess is pretty pedestrian, while first-round rookie D.J. Moore appears to be in the doghouse after being clocked for 113 mph in a 65-mph zone in the middle of August.

RECAP: This is a tough one, as the Cowboys are difficult to read for me. I also don’t know how effective Daryl Williams will be if he plays. As with the previous game, I think the most likely result of this game is the home team winning by three, so I don’t see any value here.

I’m going to side with the Panthers. I think they’re a bit better than the Cowboys, though I’m not completely sure. Dallas has been the toughest team for me to figure out, so I’m looking forward to learning something from this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting on Dallas, which doesn’t really surprise me. I think this game could go either way, so I doubt I’ll be betting on it.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s nice to see that the Panthers might have Daryl Williams available, but it’s impossible to know how effective he’ll be. Meanwhile, Greg Olsen is banged up as well. This is a non-play, but I’ll be rooting for a big Carolina victory so that Atlanta becomes a great Week 2 pick.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Panthers are whom I would bet if I had to. Luckily, I don’t! This game is difficult to read, as there are way too many question marks.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Greg Olsen will play, but he may not be healthy. If you’re looking to bet the Panthers, BetUS has -3 -105. If you like Dallas, +3 -105 is available at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

The public doesn’t want action on the Cowboys for once.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 71% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

The underdog is 76-51 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 33-23 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 85 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Panthers 23, Cowboys 17
Panthers -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 16, Cowboys 8

Washington Redskins (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)
Line: Cardinals by 2. Total: 43.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Sept 9, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 will be underway next week! In the meantime, click the link to read Seasons 1-10.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Both teams have new quarterbacks this year, and I imagine that they will eventually combine for three fresh quarterbacks this season once Sam Bradford inevitably gets injured. It’s going to happen; it’s just a matter of when.

Bradford will perform well when healthy, and I like his chances in this matchup. The Redskins lost Kendall Fuller, their talented slot corner, in the Alex Smith trade, so they won’t have anyone to cover Larry Fitzgerald in the slot. Meanwhile, another thing to consider is that the Cardinals have bolstered their offensive line. Arizona’s blocking was atrocious last season, but thanks to the additions of Justin Pugh and Mason Cole, as well as the improved health of D.J. Humphries and Mike Iupati, the Cardinals should do a decent job of keeping Washington’s pass rush at bay. I worry about the Redskins not being able to block Ryan Kerrigan, but that’s the one clear-cut edge the Redskins have in the trenches.

That said, the Redskins have some intriguing talents on the defensive line, including Jonathan Allen and rookie Da’Ron Payne. Washington will be much better versus the run because of them, which does not bode well for David Johnson’s chances on the ground. However, I expect Johnson to have a big impact as a receiver out of the backfield. The Cardinals will quickly remember how much they’ve missed Johnson in this game after he was out for 15 contests in 2017.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins made a lateral move this offseason by replacing Kirk Cousins with Smith, except for the fact that Smith is nearly five years older than Cousins. Nevertheless, things should be the same this year, only Smith has an extensive track record of getting teams into the playoffs. He can’t win in the postseason, but he’s been very successful when it comes to winning in September through December, unlike Cousins.

As with Bradford, Smith has improved blocking in front of him. The Redskins had a stout offensive line in the early parts of 2017, but they lost numerous big men to injury. Things will be back to normal, as the Redskins will have Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff and Morgan Moses at full strength to blocker Chandler Jones and company.

The strength of Arizona’s defense, aside from Jones, is Patrick Peterson, but Smith throws to way too many players for Peterson to be a major factor in this game. Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson figures to run well against his most-recent team, as the Cardinals have lost some members from the stop unit over the past couple of seasons. The likes of Tyrann Mathieu, Calais Campbell and Xavier Williams are no longer around, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Smith and Peterson to succeed.

RECAP: This is the toughest call of the week as far as I’m concerned. I think the line is set perfectly. The Redskins are a bit better than the Cardinals, but Arizona has a tremendous home-field advantage. I’d be on the Cardinals if the Redskins were favored, and vice-versa. I’m leaning toward the Cardinals, but that’s truly 50.1-49.9.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has moved to Arizona -1 or -1.5, depending on the book. The sharps have been betting the Cardinals, and after hearing some things throughout the week, I’m not surprised. Everyone seems to think the Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the NFL, and I can’t understand why. As long as Sam Bradford is healthy, they seem like an 8-8 squad to me. I may put a unit on Arizona, but haven’t decided yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: I thought about a small bet on Arizona, but I’ve decided against it. I’m going to stick with my initial gut feeling that this is a toss up.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are betting the Cardinals. If there’s a game I’m going to end up betting in the late afternoon, it’s this one. Check back at 3:30-3:45 for final thoughts on these games.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharp money has stopped coming in on the Cardinals, who have settled in at -2.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 52% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Cardinals are 31-15 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Cardinals 26, Redskins 23
Cardinals -2 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Redskins 24, Cardinals 6

Chicago Bears (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0)
Line: Packers by 7. Total: 45.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -5.
Sunday, Sept 9, 8:20 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the Beach Wedding Weekend. I’ve also written about my wedding and honeymoon, so check that out as well!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Bears made quite the splash a couple of days ago, trading for Khalil Mack. The move comes with some risk – check my NFL Trade Grades for more – but there’s no doubt Mack will have an enormous impact on Chicago’s chances of making a run at the Super Bowl. I already considered the Bears a playoff team prior to the transaction, but this could put them over the top.

That said, I don’t think Mack will be the most impactful member of the front seven in this contest for Chicago. The Packers have right tackle Bryan Bulaga to defend the backfield against Mack, but something they lack is potent interior line play. Akiem Hicks will dominate in the trenches as a result, so the Bears will be able to put heavy interior pressure on Aaron Rodgers.

I could see the Bears forcing some turnovers as a result of this. They have an excellent linebacking corps – which welcomes first-round rookie Roquan Smith into the mix – and a terrific secondary that will create plenty of take-aways this season. The Packers don’t have a potent receiving threat beyond Davante Adams, so I like the Bears’ chances of limiting the Packers.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears, in addition to their stalwart defense, have a potent ground attack, a strong offensive line and some intriguing new weapons. Their only question mark is Mitchell Trubisky, but it’s clear that he has physical talent because he was the second-overall pick in his class. He’ll also have a better offensive coach guiding him in Matt Nagy, who is expected to involve Trubisky in RPOs this year.

I believe Trubisky will have at least some success in this contest. The Packers were incredibly poor versus the pass last year, but they made some nice upgrades to their secondary by selecting Jaire Alexander and Joshua Jackson in the first two rounds in the 2018 NFL Draft. However, their linebacking corps is a mess. Jake Ryan suffered a season-ending injury, and it doesn’t sound like Oren Burks will play. Blake Martinez is the only viable starter remaining at the position, so I have to imagine that Nagy is aware of this and will be able to attack this weakness.

I do not expect the Bears to run well into a ferocious defensive front comprised of Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels and newly acquired Muhammad Wilkerson, but Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen figure to do well as receivers out of the backfield. Chicago is expected to utilize both Howard and Cohen at the same time in what should be an intriguing offensive game plan.

RECAP: If you remove the two quarterbacks, the Bears are the superior team, and I’m not sure it’s close. Outside of left tackle, right tackle and nose tackle, you could make the case that Chicago is better at every position.

Quarterback, of course, is extremely important, but is that worth 7.5 points when factoring in home-field advantage? I say no, though it could still be scary betting against Rodgers. I understand that, but remember what I wrote earlier about Tom Brady. Elite teams tend to pace themselves, so that would explain the following: Rodgers, in his career, is a respectable 26-20 against the spread when favored by 7.5 or more, but do you want to guess what that record is in September? Just 2-5.

Rodgers is smart and knows that the season is long. Exerting lots of energy early in the year, especially when favored by a large margin, is not a good idea. And besides, the Packers could have one eye on next week’s matchup. They have to battle the Vikings, and I’m sure Rodgers is eager for revenge after Minnesota ruined his 2017 season when Anthony Barr broke his collarbone.

This is a four-unit play for me. This spread is way too high considering how good the Bears are, and I don’t think Chicago will have the Packers’ full attention anyway.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been all over the Bears, and understandably so. For how good Chicago is, this spread is way too large.

PICK LOCKED IN: The sharp money is really coming in on the Bears, and I regret not locking this in sooner. All of the +7.5s are gone. In fact, this line is +7 -110 in many books, but still available at +7 -105 at both 5Dimes and BetUS, so I’m going to lock that in now. I thought about waiting for a +7.5 to resurface, but after seeing the sharps pound +7.5 so heavily, the books may not want to go back up to that number.

SATURDAY NOTES: I think I moved the line on 5Dimes. Immediately after locking this pick in, I placed a bet on 5Dimes, and the spread shifted seconds later. BetUS still had +7 -105 for a while, but that’s gone as well.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: If you want to bet the Bears, but haven’t yet, you can still get +7 -110 at BetUS. The juice is higher now elsewhere.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money continues to pour in on the Bears, who dropped to +6.5 in some books. There’s heavy late public money on the Packers, however, and I’m seeing +7 -115 at BetUS. Pinnacle, meanwhile, is begging everyone to bet the Packers, as they have a -7 +106 line posted. I still love the Bears.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.

The Packers have a revenge game against the Vikings coming up.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
Public on the Packers, sharps on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 63% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Packers are 37-25 ATS at home since 2010.

Packers are 45-25 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 82-52 ATS since 2009 (9-6 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Opening Line: Packers -7.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Clear, 59 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Packers 27, Bears 24
Bears +7 -105 (4 Units) – 5Dimes/BetUS — Correct; +$400
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 24, Bears 23

New York Jets (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
Line: Lions by 7. Total: 44.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -3.5.
Monday, Sept 10, 7:10 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

I’m going to devote this section to Ross Avila. If this is your first time reading this, and you don’t know who Ross is, he’s a douche who harassed me on Facebook about my picks all last year. Here are some of the things he said:

He wrote this to me during the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, where he bragged about being right about Atlanta. Oops.

Ross constantly embarrassed himself throughout the year, including when he posted this, suggesting that he sold picks to people:

I eventually unfriended Ross. He started going after women on my Facebook page, including my then-fiancee. I warned him, and he didn’t listen, so I unfriended him.

Because I was a big part of Ross’ life, he sent me countless messages, begging me to re-accept him as a friend. I didn’t. He then sent me this last year:

This is one of numerous, embarrassing messages Ross sent me throughout the year. I’ll post the rest in this section each week.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Sam Darnold is the only one of the five first-round rookie quarterbacks set to start in the opening weekend, and he deserves the nod after performing so well in the preseason. This is hardly a surprise, as Darnold is not only a very talented quarterback, but also a football junkie. He’s fully invested in his career, unlike previous first-round busts like Blake Bortles and Robert Griffin. It would be shocking if Darnold didn’t thrive as a pro, and it would also be a bit surprising if he didn’t have a strong debut to his career.

The Lions stink on this side of the ball, so this is the perfect first opponent for Darnold. Their defensive line is fine, and they have some talent in their secondary, but their defensive backfield also has some serious liabilities. Their linebacking corps, meanwhile, could be the worst such group in the NFL. They can’t cover in space whatsoever. This was a thematic problem last year, and the issues continued this preseason.

I imagine the Jets will be able to take advantage of this liability by getting Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell into space. Darnold will punish the Lions this way, and he’ll also hit some deep passes on the side of the field opposite Darius Slay.

DETROIT OFFENSE: It’s usually easy to figure out if the Lions will have success offensively. Matthew Stafford loves throwing crossing routes, so he typically abuses team that have weak linebacking corps, while he tends to struggle against defenses with dominant players at the position.

With that in mind, I’m not quite sure what to think about the Jets’ linebackers. Darron Lee has been horrible throughout his career, but he’s a former first-round pick and might improve. The bigger unknown is Avery Williamson. The former Titan is excellent in run support, but happens to be middling in coverage. I’m not sure if he’s good enough to deal with the likes of Golden Tate, as well as Kerryon Johnson and Theo Riddick leaking out of the backfield. My gut says he’s not.

Outside of both linebacker areas, the Jets are solid on this side of the ball. They have the talent up front to defend the rush, so I don’t see LeGarrette Blount having a big game. They also signed cornerback Trumaine Johnson to start across from Morris Claiborne, giving them a talented secondary with their two young safeties being able to take everything over the top away from the opposition. If the Jets had a dynamic edge rush, they would truly have a dominant defense, but Stafford should have ample time in the pocket.

RECAP: This spread seems like it’s too high. I made it Detroit -3.5, and yet that might be too large itself as well. It all depends on how Darnold performs, and I have high hopes for him. Even if he can’t win this game, he’s talented enough to give the Jets a shot at a back-door cover. Detroit’s abysmal defense will be more than accommodating in that effort.

There are some question marks in this game, but I think the Jets are worth a two-unit wager. I initially felt like I was missing something with this point spread being too big, but the public is mixed when it comes to betting this contest, so perhaps casual bettors don’t realize how good Darnold is and how putrid Detroit’s defense will be this year.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp action on this game, while the public is 50-50 on it. That’s why the line hasn’t moved at all. I still like the Jets for a couple of units.

SATURDAY NOTES: Marcus Maye hurts the Jets’ chances a bit, but I still like them for two units. The line is creeping up toward +7, so I’ll be waiting for the best number possible.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: BetUS has the Jets at +7 -115, which looks very appealing. I’m going to hold out for an even better number, however.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I actually wanted to make this zero units because I wanted to make sure I finished in the black this week. However, this early start time kind of ruined that, and people may have bet the Jets already, so I’m just going to split the difference and make this a single unit. I still like the Jets, especially at +7 -105 available at Bovada, but it’s worth noting that the sharps are on the Lions.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 58% (34,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jets are 13-9 ATS as underdogs of 7+ since 2010.

Opening Line: Lions -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Lions 26, Jets 23
Jets +7 -105 (1 Unit) – Bovada — Correct; +$100
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 48, Lions 17

Los Angeles Rams (0-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-0)
Line: Rams by 3. Total: 48.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Walt’s Calculated Line: Raiders -2.5.
Monday, Sept 10, 10:20 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

This is another pick I’ll be posting early. I did this for Browns +6 over Steelers, and that line fell to +5.5. This is my second-favorite pick for Week 1, and I want to make sure people who love the Raiders get +3 +100, which is currently available at Bookmaker. But first…

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have two people I don’t know calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Diego where the San Diego Hurricanes will play the St. Louis Rams. Guys, I have to admit that I haven’t paid much attention to the 34 teams in the NFL not named the Eagles this offseason because my Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl. I also went on two vacations with mother and my new daddy Jay Cutler. They took me to Bermuda with them for their honeymoon and then we went to the Virgin Islands, and my new daddy was laughing because he said I belong in the Virgin Islands, but I didn’t quite get the joke, probably because I’m real cool.

Emmitt: Christina, you say that you go on the moonhoney with your new mother and new father, but I do not knowed how these are possible. People have sexual on the moonhoney so do you have sexuals with the new mother and new father on the moonhoney, and if so, are you gonna be borned in nine year?

Reilly: No, Emmitt, mother says I’m too young to have sex even though I turned 67 this year. And did you call me Christina? Why did you call me a girl’s name? Mother says I can’t talk to girls yet.

Tollefson: Christina Reilly sounds kinda hot. Hey, Kevin, do you have a sister named Christina? The slave women I had tied up in my basement died over the summer so I need some new women to cook and clean naked for me.

Reilly: No, I have a cousin named Christina, so maybe I can ask her. Guys, I have to announce that Matt Millen will not be joining us this year. Instead, the network hired my new daddy Jay Cutler to be an analyst! New daddy, are you excited to be working with your new baby boy!?

Cutler: I dunno, I don’t care.

Reilly: Neewww daaddyyy, you’re suppoooosed tooo caaaaree!

Wolfley: SPEAKING OF CARE, THAT REMINDS ME OF THE CARE BEARS. I WATCHED THE CARE BEARS WHEN I WAS A CHILD, AND NOW I AM FRIENDS WITH THEM, EXCEPT SHARE BEAR BECAUSE I DO NOT LIKE SHARING.

Reilly: Care Bears? What a loser. My favorite show is Sesame Street. Mother makes me watch it every morning, but I don’t mind.

Herm: SESAME STREET! I REMEMBER SESAME STREET! I RECALL SESAME STREET! USED TO WATCH IT! USED TO WATCH IT ALL THE TIME! USED TO WATCH IT EVERY DAY! USED TO WATCH IT WHENEVER IT WAS ON! CAN’T CONFUSE IT WITH SESAME SEED! OH NO! SESAME STREET IS DIFFERENT! SESAME STREET IS NOT THE SAME! SEED AND STREET ARE DIFFERENT! STREET AND SEED ARE DIFFERENT! DIFFERENT BUT CLOSE! KIND OF CLOSE! PRETTY CLOSE! SOUNDING THE SAME! ALMOST THE SAME! EXCEPT YOU CAN’T WATCH SESAME SEED! CAN’T WATCH IT! IMPOSSIBLE TO WATCH! ACTUALLY YOU CAN WATCH IT! YOU CAN LOOK AT A SESAME SEED! YOU CAN WATCH A SESAME SEED! BUT IT’S NOT DOING NOTHING! JUST SITTING THERE! JUST LAYING THERE! JUST BEING IDLE THERE! NOT FUN TO WATCH SESAME SEED! NOT GREAT TO WATCH SESAME SEED! NOT ENTERTAINING TO WATCH SESAME SEED! NO GROUCH IN SESAME SEED! NO BIG BIRD IN SESAME SEED! NO COUNT IN SESAME SEED! NO ERNIE IN SESAME SEED! NO… UHH… umm…

Reilly: Oh God, not another year of this. F**k you, Herm! F**k you!

Fouts: And here’s what he means by f**k you. When a man and a woman are attracted to each other, they f**k each other. Sometimes, a man and a man can be attracted to each other, or maybe a woman and a woman. Or sometimes, a kangaroo and a kangaroo. Or a dog and a dog. Or a cat and a dog. If they have a baby, it’s a cat-dog. Or a dog-cat. I’m not sure which is correct, but I do know that if a cat and a dog f**k each other, there will be half dog and half cat. If you look at percentages, that’s 33-percent cat and 33-percent dog. That equals 100 percent. Except 34 percent is missing. Where did the 34 percent go? Let’s break it down. Thirty-four is two times 17. That means, there are two 17s missing. What is 17? Someone who is old enough to go to a rated-R movie. That means we’re missing two people who can watch rated-R movies.

Reilly: What? Why are we talking about this? Can we get back to more important things and not Care Bears and rated-R movies, which mother won’t let me watch yet?

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you wish to discuss Care Bears, Kevin. Let’s talk about them, Kevin. Let’s begin with Tenderheart Bear, Kevin. That’s a good one, Kevin. How about Cheer Bear, Kevin? Wow, that a great Care Bear, Kevin. Let’s chat about Funshine Bear, Kevin. Someone already mentioned Share Bear, Kevin. How about Bedtime Bear, Kevin? That’s a good Care Bear for bedtime, Kevin. Because his name is Bedtime Bear, Kevin. Why not talk about Harmony Bear, Kevin? Let’s see if you can name another Care Bear, Kevin. I’ll bet you 50 Russian rubles you can name a Care Bear, Kevin.

Reilly: Russian rubles? Why would I want Russian rubles?

Charles Davis: Russian Ruble Bear is incorrect, Kevin, as is your second guess, Pepperoni Pizza Bear, Kevin. Looks like you lost 50 Russian rubles, Kevin.

Reilly: What!? I didn’t make a guess, let alone two guesses, you a**hole!

Charles Davis: Looks like Kevin is Grumpy Bear today, Kevin.

Reilly: I’M GOING TO F***ING STRANGLE YOU, THEN SHOVE ONE OF MY CARE BEAR STUFFED ANIMALS UP YOUR A**HOLE!!! We’ll be back after this!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams are every media member’s Super Bowl darling pick this year, but they are atop my Overrated NFL Teams list. One of the many reasons for this is that I’m not a believer in Jared Goff. He played well last season, but didn’t make his own pre-snap reads. He had a ton of help from quarterback guru Greg Olson, but Olson is not around any longer because he’s with the Raiders. Olson knows Goff’s strengths and weaknesses very well, and I’m sure he’ll give some tips for the Raiders’ defensive coaches on how to defend the Rams quarterback.

The Raiders made some nice additions to their linebacking corps and secondary this offseason, bringing in Derrick Johnson and Rashaan Melvin. Both players will help defend the Rams, and so will second-year cornerback Gareon Conley. The 2017 first-rounder barely played last year because of injury, but he’s fully healthy now. I like his matchup against newly acquired receiver Brandin Cooks, who may have trouble gelling with Goff, much like Sammy Watkins did last year.

Of course, the Rams’ offense will run through Todd Gurley, who is one of the favorites to lead the NFL in rushing. Part of the reason for this is Los Angeles’ stellar offensive line, which has just one liability in right guard Jamon Brown. However, the Raiders’ defensive front is looking much better. With Mario Edwards healthy, Oakland was dominating Detroit’s offensive line in joint training camp practices, and the Lions have a very good blocking unit. It’ll only take a bit to rattle Goff, and I think the Raiders could do it.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Derek Carr really struggled last year, but he was hurt for most of the season. He injured his shoulder at Denver in Week 4, and he was never the same after that despite missing just one game. Amari Cooper and several starters on his offensive line were banged up as well. The 2017 season was a mess for the Raiders, but they’ll be at full strength heading into this year.

This is obviously great news, especially for this matchup. The strength of the Rams’ defense is their front line, which is comprised of Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh and Michael Brockers. They’ll dominate many of their matchups, but I’m not so sure about this one. The Raiders have some questions at tackle, but the interior of their offensive front is stellar. Carr’s pocket should be clean, allowing him to locate his weapons amid a talented, but new secondary that may not mesh well right away.

Despite the numerous big-name signings the Rams made, they have some liabilities on defense. One is the edge rush, while another is linebacker. Carr should be able to exploit the linebacking corps, which lost Alec Ogletree this spring.

RECAP: This is going to be close to an 80-20 game, where 80 percent of the public will be on the Rams. The sharps, however, have been betting the Raiders. This is significant because it could move the spread. It was +3 +100 in numerous books a week ago. Now, it’s +3 -105 in most places, though still +3 +100 at Bookmaker. Sports Insights, meanwhile, says there is a 93-percent chance this line drops to +2.5 in the near future.

With that in mind, I’m going five units on the Raiders at +3 +100. The Rams are very overrated and overhyped, and this line is way off of what I think it should be. Without factoring in any emotional elements, I believe the Raiders should be -2.5 in this matchup. These teams are close in my mind. If you didn’t click the Overrated NFL Teams link, you can see that the Rams didn’t have many impressive victories last season outside of beating the Saints at home. Their next-best wins were versus the Jaguars and Titans on the road, and both of those games were very close. Sure, they added some big names this offseason, but all of those big names were players that other teams didn’t want. Besides, football is a team game, and the Rams, with all of their new additions, don’t have great chemistry, particularly on defense. The Raiders, meanwhile, will be closer to what they were in 2016 than 2017 as long as they stay healthy.

As for the emotional aspect, we’ve seen some very strange things happen in late Monday night games over the years. Two years ago, the three-point-dog 49ers crushed the Rams. Last season, the inferior Broncos jumped out to a huge lead over the Chargers as hosts. A few seasons ago, the home-dog 49ers crushed the Vikings, and yet Minnesota finished with six more victories than San Francisco did that year! Home teams in these very late contests have a tremendous advantage for some reason. Meanwhile, the Rams have extremely high expectations, so I believe there’s a very good chance that they’ll choke under pressure in this game. Remember, the core of this team is young, and they’ve never had expectations like these before. They beat up on many bad teams last year, but now opponents will be prepared for them.

TUESDAY UPDATE: I lucked out with the Browns line plummeted; I got +6, and now it’s +3.5. The opposite happened here. I bet +3 +100, and now the spread is +4.5. Ouch.

The reason for the spread movement is the Khalil Mack trade, which I think is silly. Mack had a tough matchup against Rob Havenstein, so I don’t know how much of an impact he would’ve had on this game. I still love the Raiders, and I’m confident in my +3 +100 selection (though I wish I could get +4.5!)

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Rams are a major liability for the books, as there is so much money coming in on them. If the sharps don’t jump on the Raiders, we may see this line move all the way to -6 by kickoff. That’ll make my +3 +100 locked-in wager look dumb, but how could I have anticipated the Raiders trading Khalil Mack when I made this pick six or so weeks ago?

SATURDAY NOTES: Mark Barron may not play for the Rams, which will allow the Raiders’ pass-catching running backs and tight ends to thrive. I wish I could get the +4.5 -105 available at Bovada, but I locked this in at +3 prior to the Khalil Mack trade.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still love the Raiders, but hate the number I have!

FINAL THOUGHTS: Man, the Raiders are +7 -115 at Bovada. I actually just placed a small bet on that because it was a number I couldn’t resist. This spread is absolutely absurd, and I wish I would’ve waited for it. Unfortunately, I have +3 +100, which was made prior to the Khalil Mack trade. Despite Mack leaving, I still think the Raiders win this game outright. The Rams are very overhyped, while Oakland will be much better than it was in 2017 because everyone is healthy now. People are quick to forget how dominant the Raiders were in 2016, and I think this team will be closer to that version than the 2017 edition.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Rams have very high expectations, and they’re playing a hungry team hosting a very late game, which have produced weird results over the years.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

No surprise that people are pounding the Dream Team Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 75% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Clear, 63 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Raiders 23, Rams 17
Raiders +3 +100 (5 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$500
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 33, Raiders 13

Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games
Atlanta at Philadelphia, Pittsburgh at Cleveland, Cincinnati at Indianapolis, Tennessee at Miami, San Francisco at Minnesota, Houston at New England, Tampa Bay at New Orleans, Jacksonville at NY Giants, Buffalo at Baltimore

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Bengals +8, Ravens -1.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

Moneyline: Browns +170 (0.5 Units) — Push; $0

Moneyline: 49ers +220 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Raiders +180 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

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2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
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2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)