NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2025): 8-6 (-$545)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,260)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2025): 5-9-1 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2025): 5-8-1 (-$1,485)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2025): 7-9 (+$315)
2025 NFL Picks: 96-90-4 (-$2,105)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 7, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: We just saw this matchup several weeks ago, and it’s hard to imagine this one being any different. Nothing has changed as far as the Raiders offensive line is concerned. Actually, nothing has changed for the better. The Raiders lost yet another blocker to injury last week, so they’re even worse when they scored only seven points against the Broncos on a recent Thursday night.

Since that Thursday night game, we saw Geno Smith take 10 sacks in a single game. The Raiders made an upgrade at offensive coordinator following that abysmal offensive performance, but it’s not like Greg Olson can shield Smith himself. The blocking is so abysmal that it doesn’t matter who’s calling the plays. The Broncos, who have the most sacks in the NFL this year, will be able to hound Smith all afternoon.

The Broncos are stronger against the pass than the run, but only by default because they’re still 10th versus ground attacks. Still, it doesn’t really matter because Ashton Jeanty doesn’t have any sort of blocking in front of him. He’s averaging negative yards before contact, so he doesn’t even have a chance to do anything.

DENVER OFFENSE: Despite limiting the Raiders to only seven points in that aforementioned Thursday night affair, the Broncos couldn’t cover the spread because they posted only 10 points. They had a great matchup against a subpar Raiders defense ranked 21st in EPA, yet they could barely move the ball.

I could tell you all the positive matchups the Broncos have in this game, but it won’t matter if Bo Nix once again constantly throws off his back foot. Nix has been very clutch this year, but he’s had several games this year where he’s displayed horrible mechanics and suffered because of it. Nix should be able to pass all over Las Vegas’ secondary, but I wouldn’t trust him to do so until he needs to late in the game.

The Raiders are also poor against the run. They rank 25th in that category and could have some issues against R.J. Harvey. The rookie runner has poor vision, but is explosive and can go the distance whenever he touches the ball.

RECAP: This is a difficult game to handicap. Obviously, the Broncos are the better team, but it didn’t matter when they failed to cover when prevailing 10-7. This is not a stupid Thursday night game, so perhaps Denver will play better. Then again, the Broncos couldn’t cover against the Jets, Giants, Titans, or Redskins either.

It’s hard to fathom how a team that blocks as poorly against the Raiders will cover against a team that rushes the passer as well as the Broncos, but we just saw it happen. We also just saw the Broncos participate in a grueling overtime game that went 160 snaps. The Broncos could have a letdown, especially given that they already beat the Raiders and will take on the Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs, and Chargers after this “easy” game.

I’m going to side with the Raiders because of the poor spot Denver is, but there is no way I’m going to bet this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still can’t bet this game. The play is Denver in a teaser, but that would require finding a sportsbook that still gives you -120 vig on teasers.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Raiders could be down two of their top defenders. Maxx Crosby was limited-DNP-DNP in practice this week, while safety Jeremy Chinn missed Friday’s practice with a back injury. Things could be even easier for the Broncos, though we haven’t really seen them take advantage of easy matchups. It’s hard to like either side.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The more I think about it, the more the Raiders look better to me. Denver should be exhausted in this game and already beat the Raiders. I get the feeling that Las Vegas is somehow going to pull an upset.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game. I’m not going to bet the Raiders, but I get the feeling that they could pull the upset. The best line is +8.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Broncos had an exhausting overtime game. After this easy contest, they’ll play the Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs, and Chargers.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -8.

Computer Model: Broncos -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Tons of action on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 83% (94,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Raiders have won 8 of the previous 11 meetings.

Sean Payton is 24-11 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: I can’t believe the Bears ran for nearly 300 yards against the Eagles. I saw it happen, but I still don’t believe it. Philadelphia entered as the league’s No. 3 rush defense, but that didn’t matter on Black Friday. Both D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai rammed the ball down Philadelphia’s throat.

While the Bears have a strong rushing attack, they’re not this amazing. The Eagles were a complete no-show. The Packers will bring much more of an effort in this vital divisional game. They rank 12th versus the run, so they should be able to do a decent job of limiting Swift and Monangai for the most part. This will force Caleb Williams into more passing situations.

Despite getting the win versus the Eagles, Williams was not very good. He made some clutch throws, but failed to complete half of his passes. He had a difficult matchup against Philadelphia’s pass defense, and he faces a similar test against the Packers, who did a decent job of locking down the Lions on Thanksgiving.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: If you told me there was one team that ran for nearly 300 rushing yards on Black Friday, I would have guessed it was the Eagles, between Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. However, Barkley has had just one good rushing game all year, while Hurts, for some reason, isn’t running nearly as often this season. Still, Chicago is missing its top three linebackers, so I expected a great rushing performance by Philadelphia.

Josh Jacobs, conversely, has enjoyed some strong running performances this year, so he’ll be able to exploit Chicago’s weaknesses at linebacker. Jacobs is a tough runner, particularly in the red zone, so he’ll be able to pick up the tough yards to put “No Cookie” Jordan Love in favorable down-and-distance situations.

Love would have enjoyed this matchup much more of a few weeks ago. That’s when the Bears were missing three cornerbacks. Two returned last week, however, so I wouldn’t count on Love having a great performance.

RECAP: I don’t particularly believe in the Bears. They had a negative point differential heading into the Philadelphia game. They’ve needed luck to defeat the Raiders, Redskins, and Vikings, all of which are poor teams. They won in Philadelphia, which may have elevated their status in regard to public perception, but the Eagles were a complete no-show in the game, much like the Chiefs were versus the Raiders in last year’s Black Friday game. Kansas City prevailed, albeit barely, but the 2024 Raiders were a far worse team than the 2025 Bears.

That said, I wouldn’t expect this game to be a blowout. The Packers haven’t enjoyed many this season, though they recently had one against the inept Vikings. They also won by a touchdown at Detroit, and I could see the Packers prevailing by about that same margin again.

I don’t really like this game from a betting perspective, but I think the Packers are the right side. They seem like the better team, and at some point, regression has to come for Chicago. However, it wouldn’t shock me if the Bears kept this game close or even won in an upset.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve decided to switch my pick because the Bears may get T.J. Edwards back from injury. Their cornerbacks will be healthier as well. Also, I think I’ve been disregarding Chicago’s stellar offensive line too much. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai are third and fourth in yards before contact, respectively, which is very impressive.

SATURDAY NOTES: Rome Odunze is out, but the Bears will have T.J. Edwards back from his extended absence, so they’ll be better against the run. That is obviously very important in this matchup. Meanwhile, Jayden Reed may return after being limited all week.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No update this morning. I would still lean toward the Bears, but don’t plan on betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden are back, so the Packers will have all of their receivers again. The sharps bet the Packers at -5.5 and -6, but not -6.5. You can actually get a +7 -116 at Bookmaker, which I would bet if I were wagering on Chicago. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -6.5.

Computer Model: Packers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Everyone is on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 81% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 20 of the last 23 meetings.

Opening Line: Packers -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Clear, 11 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams defense was pathetic on Sunday, but I can’t exactly praise the offense for a strong performance either. The Rams moved the chains quite well versus Carolina, but Matthew Stafford’s three interceptions, including a pick-six, buried his team.

Obviously, this is not going to happen every week. Stafford was playing a road game in the elements, but now he’ll be indoors where he’s much more comfortable. He doesn’t have too tough of a matchup either. The Cardinals aren’t poor defensively, but they have some injury issues in their secondary. Stafford should be able to take advantage of those.

Stafford should be able to lean on his running backs as well. Again, the Cardinals aren’t terrible in this category, but aren’t good either. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum should do well in this game.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Panthers looked like the Greatest Show on Turf against the Rams. They could not be stopped, as Los Angeles’ defense looked completely helpless. If someone watching that game hadn’t tuned into any other contest this year, they may have thought that the Rams had the worst defense in the NFL.

The Rams don’t have the worst defense in the NFL. They’re ranked third, and they should rebound in this game. Their ferocious pass rush should be able to pressure Jacoby Brissett because the Arizona offensive line has some injury issues. This could force Brissett into the same sort of turnovers we saw from him in the Seattle game.

Los Angeles showed its greatest weakness against the run last week, but that shouldn’t be a problem in this matchup. The Cardinals have absolutely no ground attack to speak of, so the Rams will be able to focus on clamping down on Brissett.

RECAP: I’m a fan of backing great teams off a loss. The Rams looked pathetic against the Panthers, but I’m not taking that result seriously. If you are, consider what the Eagles did last year. They won the Super Bowl, but they had a low-effort performance at home versus Carolina. If Xavier Legette didn’t drop a touchdown on the final play, the Eagles would have lost to the Panthers.

The Rams should be able to bounce back, and they’ll do so against an inferior team that has gotten blown out whenever playing up in competition. The Cardinals have kept most of their games close, but they were dismantled by the Seahawks and 49ers. The Rams are even better than those teams, so if they’re focused off the defeat – and they should be – then they’ll treat the Cardinals similarly.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still love the Rams, so much so that I may bet the -20.5 alt line as long as I’m getting +400 or better. If the Rams are the best team in the NFL, they could treat this game like the Eagles did versus the Cowboys last year following their loss to the Redskins late in the season. Philadelphia stepped on the throat of the Cowboys, and the Rams could treat the Cardinals similarly.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals have a number of injured players who will miss this game, including Walter Nolen, Marvin Harrison Jr., Greg Dortch, Max Melton, and some others. It’s hard to imagine Arizona being competitive if the Rams are as motivated off the loss as I think they will be.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are going against our other top picks (Ravens, Jaguars), but they at least like the Rams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps, as mentioned, are on the Rams. The best line is -9.5 -105 at FanDuel. We’re also betting -20.5 +330 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Rams are coming off an ugly loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -9.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -8.5.

Computer Model: Rams -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Tons of action on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 81% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: Rams have won 14 of the last 18 meetings.

Sean McVay is 9-3 ATS as a favorite after losing as a favorite.

Cardinals are 52-35 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Rams -7.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: You may have noticed that the Chiefs were able to score effectively early in the Dallas game and then struggled to do so until garbage time. There was a reason for this, and that would be the three offensive line injuries they suffered throughout the contest. Josh Simmons, Trey Smith, and Jawaan Taylor all got hurt. This hindered the Chiefs against the Cowboys.

If the Chiefs had issues scoring against the Cowboys without three of their offensive linemen, imagine the struggles they’ll sustain against the Texans. Houston has a terrific defensive line that placed eight sacks on Josh Allen a couple of weeks ago. With all of the missing blockers in front of him, Patrick Mahomes will similarly be under siege.

I wouldn’t count on the Chiefs running the ball effectively either. The injury-ravaged offensive line will obviously be a factor, as will Houston’s stellar front that is ranked second against the rush.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: A few weeks ago, if you were to ask me which team had the better offensive line, the answer would have been simple. The Chiefs made vast improvements to the blocking unit this past summer, while the Texans were known to have a line that couldn’t protect C.J. Stroud at all.

The turntables have turned, and now the opposite is true for both teams. The Chiefs can’t block because of their injuries, while Houston’s pass protection has been upgraded tremendously. Stroud isn’t seeing as much pressure anymore, so he’ll have enough time in the pocket to potentially dissect the Chiefs like Dak Prescott was able to on Thanksgiving. Stroud doesn’t have two All-Pro threats, but between Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, and the emerging Jayden Higgins, he’ll be able to keep the chains moving throughout the afternoon.

The Chiefs aren’t very good against the run either. Woody Marks got banged up last week, but was able to return to action. Marks should have a decent performance in this contest.

RECAP: People keep expecting the Chiefs to rebound, but it’s not happening. Their defense is atrocious, ranking 27th in EPA. Their offense, meanwhile, was carrying the team, but will have severe issues doing so with three injured offensive linemen. Houston, conversely, now has better blocking, and when factoring in Kansas City’s offensive line injuries, the Texans defense will be the best unit on the field.

I will be on the Texans, but I can’t say this will be a huge play. Even though the Texans are in better shape right now, there’s a voice telling me that Mahomes will somehow, some way, will the team to victory. Of course, he could do so and not cover, especially with this line being 3.5, so I think Houston is safe for a two-unit play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to add units to the Texans because the Chiefs may indeed be down three offensive linemen. Josh Simmons was placed on injured reserve, while Jawaan Taylor and Trey Smith missed practice Wednesday. I’ll bump this to three units right now, and if things don’t improve for the Chiefs, I’m going to move to four units.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jawaan Taylor and Trey Smith are both doubtful, so the Chiefs will be missing three starting offensive linemen. Good luck against Houston’s defensive line, Patrick Mahomes.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m shocked that this line is four now. I’m glad to be getting a better number with Houston.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s good injury news for the Texans. They’ll have Kamari Lassiter, while the Chiefs will be missing their three offensive linemen. Despite this, the sharps have pounded the Chiefs into oblivion, betting them at -3, -3.5, -4, and now -4.5. I assume this is because they like Andy Reid with extra time to prepare, and they believe the Chiefs will be fighting for their lives, but I’m not convinced these are good reasons to bet Kansas City. The best line is +5 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -5.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Some action on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 65% (201,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 106-31 SU, 71-64 ATS (57-50 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 15-12 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Chiefs -5.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 21 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Erin Andrews: Welcome to the city of Los Angeles, where tonight, the Philadelphia Flyers take on the LA Rams. Guys, I’ve been asked to sub in for Kevin Reilly, who’s being sentenced for his great crime against humanity where he said people who are born as fans from one team can’t identify as fans from another team. But I’m sure he’s fine missing some stupid Eagles game. I’ve been asked to sub in because of my controversial statements from earlier in the week. Guys, I really enjoy being an announcer, but I am sad that I can’t celebrate National Brownie Day with my family, but these are the sacrifices I have to make.

Emmitt: Thanks, Brownie. I has to say that you lookin’ real different than usual because you normally a real fatness guy but now you look like a women with yellow hair. I hear that some guy are trams sectionals where man can change into women and woman can change to couch, so you does a great job of becomining women, and maybe some day you gonna becomed couch.

Erin Andrews: Brownie? Did you just call me Brownie!? Way to rub it in on National Brownie Day! Jay Cutler, do something about this now!

Jay Cutler: Yeah, I’ll take a brownie, thanks.

Tollefson: Erin, you need to get over yourself. Complaining about missing holidays is no bueno when it comes to female slavehood in my manor. If any of my female slaves complains about missing holidays, I feed them to the hounds. Unless it’s National Hounds Day, and then I’ll have that female slave bake the hounds a cake, and then I’ll have another female slave bake that first female slave inside that cake. It’s like cakeception, but the hounds love it!

Erin Andrews: Oh, great, another holiday I get to miss. Thanks for reminding me that I can’t spend National Hounds Day with my family. So rude! Wait, why am I getting texts from some guy named Kelvin Reilly who wants me to put him on video chat? Go away, creep! Father won’t let me talk to boys I don’t work with anyway! Clarissa, my dear friend, let’s go down to you for a special report. Clarissa, let us know what you’re hearing so I can stop talking to these rude guys.

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Rude Guy. This just in, Jalen Hurts and Randall Cunningham will miss this game because they will be observing National Rude Guy Day. Back to you, Rude Guy.

Erin Andrews: HEY, CLARISSA, IT’S ME, ERIN ANDREWS! WHY DO YOU THINK MY NAME IS RUDE GUY, AND WHY ARE YOU REMINDING ME THAT I CAN’T CEELBRATE NATIONAL RUDE GUYS DAY WITH MY FAMILY!? WHAT’S NEXT, ARE YOU GOING TO BELITTLE ME FOR NOT BEING WITH MY FAMILY FOR NATIONAL SUBSTITUTE ANNOUNCER BELITTLEMENT DAY!?

Mina Kimes: Erin, I can totally understand you yelling about stuff. We usually have a man yelling incoherently, and we consider him a misogynist, but when a woman yells incoherently, she is showing her power in the workplace. I think you would appreciate my great analysis. The guy in charge always dismisses it, but I’ve labeled Geno Smith to be a top-one quarterback this year. He’s so good he could even be a top-zero quarterback. Erin, I’ve been ignored because I’m an Asian female NFL analyst. If I were one of the good ole boys, my great analysis would be taken super seriously.

Erin Andrews: Milo, you’ve just really pissed me off because you’ve now reminded me that I can’t spend time with my family for Asian Female NFL Analyst Day or Geno Smith Appreciation Day. You’re a monster, so guess what? You’re not going to be invited to Father’s homeschool dinner celebration where he’ll serve macaroni and cheese!

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST UNINVITE AN ASIAN FEMALE NFL ANALYST FROM DINNER!? ARE YOU SERIOUS RIGHT NOW!? WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO NEXT, SEND BLACK WOMEN TO THE BACK OF THE BUS!?

Erin Andrews: Screw you, Sarah. Screw you for reminding me that I’m missing out on Banning Asian Female NFL Analysts Day with my family. That’s it – you’re disallowed from viewing my world-famous Nick Foles bobblehead collection! Wait, I don’t have a Nick Foles bobblehead collection … although, I’M GOING TO MISS NICK FOLES BOBBLE HEAD COLLECTION APPRECIATE DAY, WAHHHHH!!!

Charles Davis: Erin, it sounds like you’re becoming one with the Kevin Reilly chair, Erin. Let’s talk about how you’re becoming Kevin Reilly, Erin. You think you have a Nick Foles bobblehead collection, Erin. Let’s talk about how you’re suddenly being homeschooled despite being an adult, Erin. Why not mention the macaroni and cheese dinners, Erin? Let’s transition to the incoherent yelling, Erin. Care to tell us about the misogyny, Erin? And we can also talk about your obsession with something stupid like holidays, Erin. What’s next, Erin? Are you going to rant about “your” Philadelphia Eagles, Erin?

Erin Andrews: DON’T YOU TALK SMACK ABOUT MY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, OR I’LL MURDER YOU IN YOUR SLEEP AND THEN REGRET ABOUT NOT CELEBRATING MURDERING NFL ANALYSTS IN THEIR SLEEP DAY! We’ll be back right after this!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles had a truly pathetic performance in a no-show versus the Bears on Black Friday. A.J. Brown appeared to be the only player displaying any sort of effort on the field, as Jalen Hurts continued to be reluctant to run for some reason. Perhaps this new lethargy is the result of winning the Super Bowl.

Of course, it comes as no surprise that the Eagles are worse on this side of the ball with Lane Johnson, which has been the norm for years. The Eagles already had issues with their run blocking, so it was telling that they couldn’t even run on a Chicago team missing its top three linebackers. The Chargers are worse against the rush than the pass, but I don’t trust Saquon Barkley to do anything on the ground.

Hurts will have to beat the Chargers on his own, which is a big problem for several reasons. I already discussed his reluctance to run. His pass protection has also diminished because of Johnson’s absence. Then, there’s the Chargers’ defense, which is fantastic against the pass because of Khalil Mack and others being able to rush the quarterback.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers are in even worse shape when it comes to their pass protection. They’re missing both tackles. On top of that, Justin Herbert has a broken finger on his non-throwing hand, and he had to be in shotgun on every play once he returned to the field versus the Raiders.

This seems like a recipe for disaster against the Eagles. Philadelphia has a tremendous pass rush that will fully be able to take advantage of the Chargers’ liabilities on the offensive line. The Raiders could not do this because Maxx Crosby is the only player on the Raiders capable of getting to the quarterback, but the Eagles have numerous players who can do so.

The Chargers were able to score enough to win comfortably against the Raiders, but were able to get a chunk of their yardage via the running game. Perhaps this bodes well for them based on how many rushing yards Philadelphia surrendered to Chicago, but the Eagles are usually much better against the run than what they displayed on Black Friday.

RECAP: It might seem tough to take the Eagles after they humiliated themselves on national TV last week. I’m even having second thoughts about it, but I will be siding with Philadelphia. I hate that Johnson will be out again, but I think the Eagles are the correct play in this game.

As bad as things may seem for the Eagles right now, the Chargers are in even worse shape. Their offensive tackle situation is worse because they’re missing both players at the position, while Herbert is legitimately injured. The Chargers will also be playing in front of a crowd that will heavily support the Eagles, so they will have to go into a silent count.

While I will be on the Eagles, I will not be betting them for a couple of reasons. First of all, Circadian rhythms will prove to be difficult to overcome. West Coast teams are 7-3 against the spread as home underdogs against East Coast teams on Monday night. Second, I am worried that we could see a repeat of the Eagles’ 2023 collapse when they lost almost every game down the stretch. Their performance versus the Bears was alarming, but it may have just been a one-off.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Whereas I have mixed feelings on this game, Andy Iskoe made a compelling case for the Chargers in our long livestream:

SATURDAY NOTES: Jalen Carter will miss this game, while Lane Johnson hasn’t practiced yet. This is another argument for the Chargers, but I’m still very torn on this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The more I think about it, the more the Chargers look appealing. I may end up betting this game.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m sure we’ll have some live props for this game, but our same-game parlay will be Saquon Barkley under 69.5 rushing yards, Justin Herbert over 19.5 rushing yards, and Oronde Gadsen under 38.5 receiving yards. This $25 parlay pays $149.83 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no strong opinion on this game, but if you want to follow the sharps, you’ll want to side with the Chargers. The sharps have bet the Chargers at +3, +2.5, +2, and now +1.5. The best line for the Eagles now is -1 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -2.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 58% (182,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Jalen Hurts is 11-17 ATS as a road favorite.

Opening Line: Eagles -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.