2025 NFL Picks – Week 14: Bengals at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

Video of the Week: I enjoyed this video of a whack job going back in time to kill Hitler:

Funny, but unrealistic because the woman didn’t talk over him. Also, she was attractive, whereas those sorts of people tend to be fat, ugly beasts with armpit hair.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It was unclear how Joe Burrow would look coming off his extended time off. He was a bit rusty to start the game on Thanksgiving night, but improved as the evening progressed. He was quite good in the second half.

The Bills can’t be happy to hear this. Burrow has had great success against the Bills in the past. Buffalo’s defense was not tested last week by the Steelers because Aaron Rodgers was incapable of throwing the ball beyond the line of scrimmage. That obviously won’t be the case with Burrow, who could have Tee Higgins back from concussion.

Of course, the weakness of the Buffalo defense is the team’s inability to stop the run. The Bengals don’t have the best ground attack, but Chase Brown can be effective when the opposition has to focus on Burrow, Higgins, and Ja’Marr Chase.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: It was surprising that the Bills blew out the Steelers last week because both of Buffalo’s offensive tackles were sidelined. The Steelers appeared to have a big advantage on the edge, but the Bills instead rammed the ball down their throat.

The Bills will be looking to duplicate that game plan. The Bengals have the worst run defense in the NFL, so James Cook could have a monster game.

Buffalo will need to get Cook going because Cincinnati has actually been somewhat formidable defensively over the past couple of weeks. It’s hard to believe, but it’s true. The Bengals have been able to pressure Lamar Jackson and Drake Maye the past couple of weeks, and Trey Hendrickson wasn’t even on the field. If the Bills won’t have either tackle again, Josh Allen will constantly be under siege, though Allen could mitigate the pressure by scrambling, as usual.

RECAP: Bills fans can’t be happy that Burrow is back. Burrow has dominated the Bills over the years, even beating them in the playoffs a couple of years ago. The Bengals aren’t expected to repeat their success – they’re 5.5-point underdogs – but I think the sportsbooks are wrong.

The Bengals are very much a live dog in this contest. Their defense has improved markedly, but Burrow looking good in the second half of his upset victory over the Ravens is obviously the bigger factor. Burrow should be even better in this game because he’ll have more reps since returning from injury. The Bills are the better team, but I trust Burrow to keep this game close if he can’t operate with the lead. Forget being an underdog; Burrow is 44-23 against the spread in all games in which he’s not giving a touchdown or more.

This game has the makings of a close game. Burrow will usually find a way to cover when trailing, while the Bills shouldn’t have issues scoring on Cincinnati’s defense.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both Buffalo tackles were limited Wednesday. I thought we could bet Cincinnati if they were both out, but that doesn’t look to be the case.

SATURDAY NOTES: It looks like both Buffalo tackles will play. Dion Dawkins doesn’t carry an injury designation, while Spencer Brown is questionable after being limited all week. That doesn’t mean that the Bills don’t have injuries, however, as Joey Bosa and Terrel Bernard will miss this game. I still have a slight lean on the Bengals.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bills won’t have Spencer Brown on top of Terrel Bernard and Joey Bosa. Dalton Kincaid will play, however. The sharps were on the Bills at -5.5, but not -6. The best line is +6 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS: Dalton Kincaid is active, so we’re going to bet him against the worst tight end defense in the NFL. We’re also going to ladder him on FanDuel:

Dalton Kincaid over 34.5 receiving yards -112 (1.5 Units)

Dalton Kincaid 60+ receiving yards +330 (0.5 Units)

Dalton Kincaid 70+ receiving yards +520 (0.25 Units)

Dalton Kincaid 80+ receiving yards +800 (0.2 Units)

Dalton Kincaid 90+ receiving yards +1100 (0.15 Units)

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -7.

Computer Model: Bills -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

The Bengals are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 71% (93,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Joe Burrow is 45-23 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (5-6 ATS otherwise).

Zac Taylor is 11-5 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Bills -5.5.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: Snow, 30 degrees. Light wind.