2025 NFL Picks – Week 14: Broncos at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

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In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: We just saw this matchup several weeks ago, and it’s hard to imagine this one being any different. Nothing has changed as far as the Raiders offensive line is concerned. Actually, nothing has changed for the better. The Raiders lost yet another blocker to injury last week, so they’re even worse when they scored only seven points against the Broncos on a recent Thursday night.

Since that Thursday night game, we saw Geno Smith take 10 sacks in a single game. The Raiders made an upgrade at offensive coordinator following that abysmal offensive performance, but it’s not like Greg Olson can shield Smith himself. The blocking is so abysmal that it doesn’t matter who’s calling the plays. The Broncos, who have the most sacks in the NFL this year, will be able to hound Smith all afternoon.

The Broncos are stronger against the pass than the run, but only by default because they’re still 10th versus ground attacks. Still, it doesn’t really matter because Ashton Jeanty doesn’t have any sort of blocking in front of him. He’s averaging negative yards before contact, so he doesn’t even have a chance to do anything.

DENVER OFFENSE: Despite limiting the Raiders to only seven points in that aforementioned Thursday night affair, the Broncos couldn’t cover the spread because they posted only 10 points. They had a great matchup against a subpar Raiders defense ranked 21st in EPA, yet they could barely move the ball.

I could tell you all the positive matchups the Broncos have in this game, but it won’t matter if Bo Nix once again constantly throws off his back foot. Nix has been very clutch this year, but he’s had several games this year where he’s displayed horrible mechanics and suffered because of it. Nix should be able to pass all over Las Vegas’ secondary, but I wouldn’t trust him to do so until he needs to late in the game.

The Raiders are also poor against the run. They rank 25th in that category and could have some issues against R.J. Harvey. The rookie runner has poor vision, but is explosive and can go the distance whenever he touches the ball.

RECAP: This is a difficult game to handicap. Obviously, the Broncos are the better team, but it didn’t matter when they failed to cover when prevailing 10-7. This is not a stupid Thursday night game, so perhaps Denver will play better. Then again, the Broncos couldn’t cover against the Jets, Giants, Titans, or Redskins either.

It’s hard to fathom how a team that blocks as poorly against the Raiders will cover against a team that rushes the passer as well as the Broncos, but we just saw it happen. We also just saw the Broncos participate in a grueling overtime game that went 160 snaps. The Broncos could have a letdown, especially given that they already beat the Raiders and will take on the Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs, and Chargers after this “easy” game.

I’m going to side with the Raiders because of the poor spot Denver is, but there is no way I’m going to bet this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still can’t bet this game. The play is Denver in a teaser, but that would require finding a sportsbook that still gives you -120 vig on teasers.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Raiders could be down two of their top defenders. Maxx Crosby was limited-DNP-DNP in practice this week, while safety Jeremy Chinn missed Friday’s practice with a back injury. Things could be even easier for the Broncos, though we haven’t really seen them take advantage of easy matchups. It’s hard to like either side.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The more I think about it, the more the Raiders look better to me. Denver should be exhausted in this game and already beat the Raiders. I get the feeling that Las Vegas is somehow going to pull an upset.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game. I’m not going to bet the Raiders, but I get the feeling that they could pull the upset. The best line is +8.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Broncos had an exhausting overtime game. After this easy contest, they’ll play the Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs, and Chargers.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -8.

Computer Model: Broncos -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Tons of action on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 83% (94,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Raiders have won 8 of the previous 11 meetings.

Sean Payton is 24-11 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Broncos -7.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Dome.