2025 NFL Picks – Week 14: Colts at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence has endured his ups and downs this season, but things have been more positive lately. Perhaps that’s because Jakobi Meyers has joined the team. Meyers isn’t the most talented receiver, but he’s a coach’s dream because he doesn’t drop anything. Seriously, he had no drops in 2024. This is a complete reversal from what the Jaguars have had at receiver. Brian Thomas Jr. has dropped everything this year, while Travis Hunter didn’t know where to line up when he was healthy.

Lawrence was seen to have a tough matchup against the Colts a couple of weeks ago because of the addition of Sauce Gardner, but that’s no longer the case because Gardner is week to week. The Colts don’t produce much pressure on the quarterback, so Lawrence should have success throwing to Meyers and others, including Brenton Strange, who has been a welcome return from his injury.

Gardner isn’t the only talented defender who is sidelined for the Colts. DeForest Buckner is also out, and the Colts’ run defense has suffered since he got hurt. Travis Etienne figures to have a solid game to give Lawrence favorable passing downs.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The injuries the Colts have extend to this side of the ball as well. Daniel Jones is playing with a fractured fibula. We’ve seen just one game from him, but it’s clear that he’s not the same quarterback. He tried to run only once, and it was a complete failure. The Jones under 7.5 rushing yards was the easiest bet of all time.

Jones is now a sitting duck in the pocket, which is not good news for this matchup. The Jaguars have talented edge rushers who can pressure Jones. In the past, Jones could have used his leg to counter this, but that’s not possible anymore.

Of course, the Colts will try to pound the ball with Jonthan Taylor. This should be effective against Jacksonville’s 13th-ranked run defense, but the Jaguars will have the luxury of playing closer to the line of scrimmage because of Jones’ health.

RECAP: We faded the Colts successfully last week, and we will attempt to do the same again. Jones is not the same quarterback with a fractured fibula, and it doesn’t seem as though people realize that. He was favored by 3.5 points last week, which was absurd, and now he’s a road favorite in Jacksonville. Why? It doesn’t make any sense.

The Colts are missing their top two defenders on top of their quarterback dealing with a fractured leg. And they are playing at a venue in which they’ve had little success over the years. Even dating back to the Andrew Luck days, the Colts have always lost at Jacksonville. The Jaguars have taken the previous nine meetings at home in this rivalry. The last time the Colts prevailed here was back in 2014, which was Luck’s third year.

Given Indianapolis’ decline, it seems unlikely that this streak will snap. These teams are close to being even, so it seems unreal that we’re getting the Jaguars as a home underdog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still can’t believe the Colts are favored in this game. They have a quarterback playing on a fractured leg, while their two best defenders are out. They also have the same record as their opponent, and they’re playing at a venue in which they haven’t won since 2014. What am I missing here?

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jaguars won’t have Walker Little, but they’ll get a lineman back with Patrick Mekari returning to action. Arik Armstead and Travon Walker are both questionable, but I still would love the Jaguars if both were out.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re going to bet Daniel Jones under rushing yards again because of his fractured leg. The best number is under 6.5 rushing yards -118 at BetMGM. Of the two units placed, 0.2 units will carry a 10-percent profit boost found on BetMGM.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jaguars have gotten some good news in regard to the inactives. Parker Washington is out, but they’ll get Travon Walker and Arik Armstead back from injury. The sharps have taken the Colts from -1.5 to -2.5 on Sunday morniing. The best line is +2.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -2.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 53% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

History: Home Team has won 14 of the last 15 meetings.

Jaguars are 18-31 ATS as home favorites since 2008. ???

Opening Line: Colts -1.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 60 degrees. Light wind.