2025 NFL Picks – Week 14: Redskins at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: If you’re reading this, you scored just as many points as the Vikings did on Sunday, and you didn’t even throw four interceptions like Max Brosmer. The undrafted free agent was so abysmal that Kevin O’Connell told the media that there was a chance that J.J. McCarthy could play again despite still being in “concussion protocol.”

Whether it’s Brosmer or McCarthy, they’ll be pleased with the matchup. The Redskins have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They’re awful in every regard. They can’t pressure the quarterback whatsoever, which puts way too much stress on their pedestrian secondary. Brosmer and McCarthy have been woeful this year, but keep in mind that they’ve taken on the likes of the Seahawks, Lions, and Packers. This is a far easier matchup, so they’ll be able to potentially resemble functional quarterbacks.

The Vikings should be able to run on the Redskins as well. Washington’s linebackers are painfully slow, so Jordan Mason figures to have a big game as potentially the sole lead back in the wake of Aaron Jones’ injury.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The first thing I do when breaking down the opposing offense going up against Brian Flores’ defense is check how the quarterback does when pressured and blitzed. Flores blitzes more than any other defensive coordinator in the NFL, and he’s great at disguising those blitzes.

The good news for Marcus Mariota is that his numbers are better when he’s blitzed compared to when he’s not blitzed. Not all blitzes are created equal, however, and Mariota is awful when under pressure. He goes from having a 1.3 turnover-worthy percentage when kept clean versus a 7.4 percentage when pressured. Furthermore, his completion percentage drops by 28 points. Mariota will certainly see pressure in this game, so that could lead to some turnovers.

The Vikings are worse against the run than the pass, but it’s not like the Redskins can take advantage of that. Their ground attack EPA is eighth-worst in the NFL, so Minnesota will be able to concentrate on slowing down Mariota and his receivers.

RECAP: It’s going to be very difficult for the Redskins to recover from the Sunday night game. They played a grueling overtime game where they were on the field for a ton of snaps. By my count, there were 160 snaps in that game, so Washington has to be exhausted and also deflated from the loss.

Recovering from a tough battle in which they exerted so much energy will be difficult for the Redskins, who have to go up against a tough Minnesota defense on the road. The Vikings were just embarrassed in a shutout loss. Teams off shutout defeats tend to cover at a 56-percent clip. Obviously, you don’t want to constantly bet on horrendous teams, but the Vikings at least have a strong defense and capable receivers.

The quarterback situation for Minnesota is the obvious problem, but hear me out: McCarthy and Brosmer are both woeful, but they’ve gone up against the Lions, Ravens, Bears, Packers, and Seahawks. Those teams are ranked 14th, 6th, 9th, 12th, and 1st in defensive EPA. Not one opponent of theirs has been ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in defense, but the Redskins are. Washington is dead last in defensive EPA.

I love being able to take advantage of this overreaction. No one wants to bet the Vikings, and everyone is eager to bet on the Redskins because of what they saw Sunday night, but there’s no way an exhausted Washington team will be up for this game. And yet, the Redskins opened as favorites on the road! This is insane. As bad as McCarthy and Brosmer have been, they should be favored over the No. 32 defense in the NFL.

I should note that I’d prefer Brosmer. He was at least able to get the ball to his receivers. McCarthy, meanwhile, is coming off a concussion, and you guys know that I hate betting on quarterbacks that are returning from concussions. We’ll stay tuned as far as the unit count is concerned.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: J.J. McCarthy was full in Wednesday’s practice, so it sounds like he’ll return. This could be one of the reasons why the sharps are betting on the Vikings. I’m always wary of quarterbacks coming back from concussions, but this is such a great spot and matchup edge for Minnesota otherwise.

SATURDAY NOTES: This sucks. Jayden Daniels is back. Not that I don’t want to see him return from injury in general, but I really liked the Vikings with Marcus Mariota as the projected starter. Mariota is abysmal when pressured, so his presence was one of the reasons I loved Minnesota. Now, things have obviously changed. This game will mark the first time that the Redskins will have Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, and a healthy offensive line on the field for the same game. I think I’d still side with the Vikings because the Redskins will be fatigued from the Denver game, but I no longer plan on betting either side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, it sucks that Jayden Daniels is back because it ruined a potential great bet on Minnesota. The sharps were on the Vikings earlier in the week, but not since the Daniels announcement. The best line is Minnesota +1 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Vikings.

The Redskins will be exhausted following their 160-snap game versus the Broncos.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -2.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Plenty of action on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 73% (79,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Vikings are 50-42 ATS at home since 2014 (19-27 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.