2025 NFL Picks – Week 14: Bears at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: I can’t believe the Bears ran for nearly 300 yards against the Eagles. I saw it happen, but I still don’t believe it. Philadelphia entered as the league’s No. 3 rush defense, but that didn’t matter on Black Friday. Both D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai rammed the ball down Philadelphia’s throat.

While the Bears have a strong rushing attack, they’re not this amazing. The Eagles were a complete no-show. The Packers will bring much more of an effort in this vital divisional game. They rank 12th versus the run, so they should be able to do a decent job of limiting Swift and Monangai for the most part. This will force Caleb Williams into more passing situations.

Despite getting the win versus the Eagles, Williams was not very good. He made some clutch throws, but failed to complete half of his passes. He had a difficult matchup against Philadelphia’s pass defense, and he faces a similar test against the Packers, who did a decent job of locking down the Lions on Thanksgiving.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: If you told me there was one team that ran for nearly 300 rushing yards on Black Friday, I would have guessed it was the Eagles, between Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. However, Barkley has had just one good rushing game all year, while Hurts, for some reason, isn’t running nearly as often this season. Still, Chicago is missing its top three linebackers, so I expected a great rushing performance by Philadelphia.

Josh Jacobs, conversely, has enjoyed some strong running performances this year, so he’ll be able to exploit Chicago’s weaknesses at linebacker. Jacobs is a tough runner, particularly in the red zone, so he’ll be able to pick up the tough yards to put “No Cookie” Jordan Love in favorable down-and-distance situations.

Love would have enjoyed this matchup much more of a few weeks ago. That’s when the Bears were missing three cornerbacks. Two returned last week, however, so I wouldn’t count on Love having a great performance.

RECAP: I don’t particularly believe in the Bears. They had a negative point differential heading into the Philadelphia game. They’ve needed luck to defeat the Raiders, Redskins, and Vikings, all of which are poor teams. They won in Philadelphia, which may have elevated their status in regard to public perception, but the Eagles were a complete no-show in the game, much like the Chiefs were versus the Raiders in last year’s Black Friday game. Kansas City prevailed, albeit barely, but the 2024 Raiders were a far worse team than the 2025 Bears.

That said, I wouldn’t expect this game to be a blowout. The Packers haven’t enjoyed many this season, though they recently had one against the inept Vikings. They also won by a touchdown at Detroit, and I could see the Packers prevailing by about that same margin again.

I don’t really like this game from a betting perspective, but I think the Packers are the right side. They seem like the better team, and at some point, regression has to come for Chicago. However, it wouldn’t shock me if the Bears kept this game close or even won in an upset.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve decided to switch my pick because the Bears may get T.J. Edwards back from injury. Their cornerbacks will be healthier as well. Also, I think I’ve been disregarding Chicago’s stellar offensive line too much. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai are third and fourth in yards before contact, respectively, which is very impressive.

SATURDAY NOTES: Rome Odunze is out, but the Bears will have T.J. Edwards back from his extended absence, so they’ll be better against the run. That is obviously very important in this matchup. Meanwhile, Jayden Reed may return after being limited all week.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No update this morning. I would still lean toward the Bears, but don’t plan on betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden are back, so the Packers will have all of their receivers again. The sharps bet the Packers at -5.5 and -6, but not -6.5. You can actually get a +7 -116 at Bookmaker, which I would bet if I were wagering on Chicago. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -6.5.

Computer Model: Packers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Everyone is on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 81% (109,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 20 of the last 23 meetings.

Opening Line: Packers -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Clear, 11 degrees. Light wind.