NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2025 – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

Week 13 Analysis: We broke out of our funk to finally have a solid week. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Eagles, 3 units (loss): We began the week poorly with a three-unit bet on the Eagles, who did not show up to play the Bears. Thankfully, we were able to make most of our money back on D’Andre Swift rushing prop bets. Thank you to Evan Daniel for the tip!

Texans, 3 units (win): This was a nice win, but the only thing that spoiled it is that we also bet the over 20.5 Texans points, and they scored 20. They had a chance to kick a field goal in the final minutes, but passed up on it to go for it on fourth down. I mean, sure, why would any team possibly kick a field goal when they can take the margin from four to seven?

Rams, 5 units (loss): Three fluky interceptions cost us. This reminded me of when the Eagles no-showed against the Panthers late last year. I expected more out of the Rams.

Saints, 4 units (win): This was not quite the back-door cover because the Saints’ final drive was for a potential tie. The missed two-point conversion allowed the Dolphins to win because the Saints otherwise could have kicked a field goal to prevail.

Seahawks, 8 units (win): I wish all Picks of the Month were this easy!

Giants, 3 units (loss): It wouldn’t be an NFL week if we didn’t have special teams nonsense go against us. The Giants allowed a punt return touchdown, then the kicker stubbed his toe before attempting a kick. And if that wasn’t enough, the Giants also fumbled a return. Can special teams nonsense go our way just once? Just once is all I ask!

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions didn’t lose to the Packers because Amon-Ra St. Brown suffered an injury in the first quarter, but his departure didn’t help matters. St. Brown suffered an ankle sprain and is expected to miss this game.

St. Brown’s absence will hurt in what should be a potential shootout. Tom Kennedy is just a pedestrian replacement, so Jared Goff will have to focus on getting the ball to Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs more often. Williams is a talented deep threat, but Jared Goff may not have enough time to get him the ball because Dallas’ pass rush has improved as the season has progressed.

The Cowboys have also improved against the run as a result of the trades they made at the deadline. Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson have improved Dallas’ ground defense tremendously. I still don’t trust them to completely handle Gibbs, but I don’t think we’ll see the sort of performance from the Detroit runner that we witnessed when he dominated the Giants.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I just mentioned the Giants. They had a very interesting game against the Lions a couple of weeks ago. Detroit was helpless to stop the Giants, despite the opposing offense being Jameis Winston throwing to Wan’Dale Robinson and Isaiah Hodgins. It was a pathetic display from Detroit’s defense off a loss.

The Lions have struggled to defend the pass for several weeks, stemming from injuries in their secondary. If they couldn’t stop Winston to Hodgins, or “No Cookie” Jordan Love to Dontayvion Wicks, how will they handle Dallas’ lethal aerial attack? Dak Prescott has been on fire since the bye, and it’s easy to see why. His offensive line is intact, and he has two dynamic receivers at his disposal; not to mention Jake Ferguson at tight end. I don’t see how the Lions will be able to defend CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

Detroit has had its issues stopping the run lately as well. Since the beginning of October, the Lions rank 20th versus ground attacks. Javonte Williams doesn’t have the same sort of terrific matchup as his receivers, but he should perform well in this game.

RECAP: I’m confused as to why the Lions were 3.5-point favorites entering this week. Given Detroit’s decline – especially without St. Brown – and Dallas’ ascension, these teams are even. I would make the Lions -1.5, so we’re getting nice value on a spread because we get the key number of three.

In addition to the line value, we’re siding with the superior matchup. The Lions can’t defend the pass, while Dallas has one of the most lethal aerial attacks in the NFL. Meanwhile, Dallas’ improved defense should be able to do a semi-decent job of containing the St. Brown-less Lions. I liked the Cowboys quite a bit at +3.5 and am still going to bet them at +3. I think they could pull the outright upset.

Our Week 14 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a chance that Amon-Ra St. Brown will play. He’s listed as questionable, but I think that’s Dan Campbell playing mind games with the Cowboys. I don’t think he’ll suit up, so I like Dallas still. If there’s a chance with St. Brown’s status, I’ll make a unit adjustment.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Detroit’s pass defense has collapsed, but which Dallas receiver do we play? Well, the Lions give up the 18th-most production to slot receivers and the third-most production to outside receivers, so George Pickens will be our choice. The best number is over 79.5 receiving yards -117 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

We’re also going to ladder Pickens to 130+ receiving yards. He’s hit 140+ in two of the three games since the bye, and he could certainly do that in this game. We’re doing this at DraftKings for +426. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

We’re going to FanDuel for our same-game parlay because it has a 30-percent profit boost. We’re going to parlay Pickens over 82.5 receiving yards, Jahmyr Gibbs over 36.5 receiving yards, and Jake Ferguson under 36.5 receiving yards. This $25 parlay pays $160. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t believe Amon-Ra St. Brown is playing. I was going to be on Dallas because the Lions would be limited without St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, but that’s not the case. I’m not going to bet the Cowboys as a result. The sharps also don’t have a clear side. There was pro money on Dallas +3.5 and then other pro money on Detroit -3. The best line is Cowboys +3.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.5.

Computer Model: Lions -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Tons of money on Dallas, but much of it sharp.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 75% (243,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: If you’re reading this, you scored just as many points as the Vikings did on Sunday, and you didn’t even throw four interceptions like Max Brosmer. The undrafted free agent was so abysmal that Kevin O’Connell told the media that there was a chance that J.J. McCarthy could play again despite still being in “concussion protocol.”

Whether it’s Brosmer or McCarthy, they’ll be pleased with the matchup. The Redskins have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They’re awful in every regard. They can’t pressure the quarterback whatsoever, which puts way too much stress on their pedestrian secondary. Brosmer and McCarthy have been woeful this year, but keep in mind that they’ve taken on the likes of the Seahawks, Lions, and Packers. This is a far easier matchup, so they’ll be able to potentially resemble functional quarterbacks.

The Vikings should be able to run on the Redskins as well. Washington’s linebackers are painfully slow, so Jordan Mason figures to have a big game as potentially the sole lead back in the wake of Aaron Jones’ injury.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The first thing I do when breaking down the opposing offense going up against Brian Flores’ defense is check how the quarterback does when pressured and blitzed. Flores blitzes more than any other defensive coordinator in the NFL, and he’s great at disguising those blitzes.

The good news for Marcus Mariota is that his numbers are better when he’s blitzed compared to when he’s not blitzed. Not all blitzes are created equal, however, and Mariota is awful when under pressure. He goes from having a 1.3 turnover-worthy percentage when kept clean versus a 7.4 percentage when pressured. Furthermore, his completion percentage drops by 28 points. Mariota will certainly see pressure in this game, so that could lead to some turnovers.

The Vikings are worse against the run than the pass, but it’s not like the Redskins can take advantage of that. Their ground attack EPA is eighth-worst in the NFL, so Minnesota will be able to concentrate on slowing down Mariota and his receivers.

RECAP: It’s going to be very difficult for the Redskins to recover from the Sunday night game. They played a grueling overtime game where they were on the field for a ton of snaps. By my count, there were 160 snaps in that game, so Washington has to be exhausted and also deflated from the loss.

Recovering from a tough battle in which they exerted so much energy will be difficult for the Redskins, who have to go up against a tough Minnesota defense on the road. The Vikings were just embarrassed in a shutout loss. Teams off shutout defeats tend to cover at a 56-percent clip. Obviously, you don’t want to constantly bet on horrendous teams, but the Vikings at least have a strong defense and capable receivers.

The quarterback situation for Minnesota is the obvious problem, but hear me out: McCarthy and Brosmer are both woeful, but they’ve gone up against the Lions, Ravens, Bears, Packers, and Seahawks. Those teams are ranked 14th, 6th, 9th, 12th, and 1st in defensive EPA. Not one opponent of theirs has been ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in defense, but the Redskins are. Washington is dead last in defensive EPA.

I love being able to take advantage of this overreaction. No one wants to bet the Vikings, and everyone is eager to bet on the Redskins because of what they saw Sunday night, but there’s no way an exhausted Washington team will be up for this game. And yet, the Redskins opened as favorites on the road! This is insane. As bad as McCarthy and Brosmer have been, they should be favored over the No. 32 defense in the NFL.

I should note that I’d prefer Brosmer. He was at least able to get the ball to his receivers. McCarthy, meanwhile, is coming off a concussion, and you guys know that I hate betting on quarterbacks that are returning from concussions. We’ll stay tuned as far as the unit count is concerned.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: J.J. McCarthy was full in Wednesday’s practice, so it sounds like he’ll return. This could be one of the reasons why the sharps are betting on the Vikings. I’m always wary of quarterbacks coming back from concussions, but this is such a great spot and matchup edge for Minnesota otherwise.

SATURDAY NOTES: This sucks. Jayden Daniels is back. Not that I don’t want to see him return from injury in general, but I really liked the Vikings with Marcus Mariota as the projected starter. Mariota is abysmal when pressured, so his presence was one of the reasons I loved Minnesota. Now, things have obviously changed. This game will mark the first time that the Redskins will have Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, and a healthy offensive line on the field for the same game. I think I’d still side with the Vikings because the Redskins will be fatigued from the Denver game, but I no longer plan on betting either side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, it sucks that Jayden Daniels is back because it ruined a potential great bet on Minnesota. The sharps were on the Vikings earlier in the week, but not since the Daniels announcement. The best line is Minnesota +1 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Vikings.

The Redskins will be exhausted following their 160-snap game versus the Broncos.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -2.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Plenty of action on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 73% (79,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 18-36-1 heading into Week 13.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

It’s official: No one has any money for Christmas presents.

MIAMI OFFENSE: After some very careful consideration, I moved the Dolphins out of Group F and into Group D of my NFL Power Rankings. I know this is potentially earth-shattering news, but my reasoning is that they have another weapon for Tua Tagovailoa to utilize. Darren Waller is back from injury, so Tagovailoa will be able to throw to someone besides Jaylen Waddle.

Sure, Waller is at high risk of suffering another injury, but he should play well in this game. The Jets are weak to tight ends – Kyle Pitts just had a strong performance against them – so Waller figures to be very productive. Tagovailoa needs an intermediate threat like him in this matchup because the Jets have a strong edge rush that can abuse Miami’s tackles.

The Jets were just abused by the run as well, with Bijan Robinson eclipsing the century mark quite early against them. This obviously bodes well for De’Von Achane, who was also able to rush for 100 yards last week.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Aaron Glenn’s decision to bench Justin Fields was criticized by some, but it appears to have worked. In his past two starts, Tyrod Taylor was able to stay within striking distance of the Ravens and then defeat the Falcons with an impressive final drive. Taylor doesn’t even have Garrett Wilson at his disposal.

Despite being able to throw to the likes of Adonai Mitchell and John Metchie, Taylor should perform on a high level in this game as well. The Dolphins have a poor pass defense because they can’t generate quarterback pressure, while several members of their secondary are injured. We just saw Tyler Shough engineer multiple touchdown drives against them in the second half of last week’s game. If Shough could nearly beat the Dolphins, Taylor will have a great chance as well.

I haven’t mentioned Breece Hall yet. He has a tougher matchup than some would expect on the ground because Miami is somehow ranked fifth versus the rush. However, the Dolphins’ linebackers are fully capable of surrendering big plays over the middle of the field – Jordyn Brooks is far worse in coverage than he is in run support – so Hall should do well as a receiving threat.

RECAP: It sucks that both of these teams are coming off a win because fading bad teams following a victory is often a good strategy. If only either the Saints or Falcons prevailed last week!

I’m going to side with the Jets. I think these teams are very close to being even, with the Dolphins having a slight edge. Thus, I don’t think Miami should be a road favorite in this matchup. I know the Dolphins won the previous meeting between these teams, 27-21, but there were five fumbles in the game, and the Dolphins recovered every single one of them. I don’t think they’ll be as lucky this time, especially in unfriendly cold conditions for a southern team.

Weather is impossible to predict, but the forecasts are calling for 34 degrees and potential snow. Tagovailoa has an 0-8 record in games that are 45 degrees or colder, so that obviously bodes very poorly for the Dolphins. I like the Jets for a few units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: An updated weather report says that this is going to be 36 degrees and partly cloudy, but no rain/snow or wind. Still, it’s cold for Tagovailoa, which should benefit the Jets.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still like the Jets in this game. They’re going to be missing slot cornerback Jarvis Brownlee, but I don’t think that’s a hug deal.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Jets at +3, and all of those three lines are gone. I can’t find a viable +3 anywhere. So, we’re going to bet the +2.5 and decrease the unit count to two because three is the most prominent key number in football. The best line is +2.5 -104 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

Tua Tagovailoa in the cold.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -3.

Computer Model: Dolphins -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Slight lean on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 61% (80,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s something from Twitter:

I love when people post hate for a pick of mine before the result is complete because I can make them look dumb when it wins.

This Buster Skrine fellow continued to expose his mom as a Tylenol user:

Imagine betting the Panthers in that game. No wonder he’s so angry.

This is from Black Friday:

So, what am I supposed to do, not bet something lucrative if another wager of mine is losing? This guy’s mom took extra-strength Tylenol.

Speaking of people whose moms abused Tylenol, this guy needs Web sites to be pretty because he doesn’t understand content:

If I had to guess, this guy has only read books with colorful pictures in them.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns suffered horrible special teams/fumble luck against the 49ers, but if that wasn’t enough, they also sustained multiple injuries on both side of the front. Beginning with the offense, the Browns lost Ethan Pocic and Jack Conklin to various injuries.

The 49ers couldn’t fully take advantage of these injuries because they have no pass rush. The Titans don’t either, but at least they have Jeffery Simmons to disrupt the interior and cause some havoc for Shedeur Sanders, who has a habit of drifting back several yards in the pocket. Luckily for Sanders, Tennessee’s weak secondary won’t be able to clamp down on his targets.

Quinshon Judkins will be hurt by the absences of Pocic and Conklin as well. But not necessarily in this matchup. The Titans are better against the run than the pass, but only by default. Their ground defense ranks 22nd in the NFL.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: As for the Cleveland injuries on this side of the ball, Maliek Collins and Shelby Harris both exited the 49ers game. This hurt more than the offensive line injuries because the Browns suddenly had diminished play on the defensive front and had issues clamping down on the 49ers in the red zone.

The Browns still have Myles Garrett, and he’ll present a nightmare for Cam Ward. It’s unclear why Ward ran only once last week after scrambling so often in the prior game. If Ward continues his aspiration to be a pocket passer, he’ll be crunched by Garrett, who continues to inch closer to the all-time single-season sack record.

Ward’s only hope will be to feed the ball to his running backs. The Browns are eighth against the run, but Harris’ absence will adversely affect Cleveland’s ability to clamp down on opposing backs.

RECAP: I can’t imagine betting this game. I have no desire to lay four points with an offensively challenged team with so many injuries. But what’s the alternative? Backing the Titans, who are 7-26 against the spread since Week 1 of last year? No thanks!

If I had to choose a side, I’d go with the Browns. Despite their injuries, they’re still a lot better than the Titans, who are a complete dumpster fire despite their three recent covers. Two of those covers involved a punt return touchdown by Chimere Dike, so unless that happens again, Cleveland will have a decent chance of beating the number.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Browns didn’t have Jack Conklin or Wyatt Teller in practice Wednesday. I’d like to fade the Browns, but I want to fade the Titans more. I’m not going to be betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Evan made a strong argument for the Browns during our Thursday livestream:

However, the Browns have so many injuries. Jack Conklin and Wyatt Teller are out. Maliek Collins was put on IR. Mason Graham was downgraded to DNP on Friday. Devin Bush barely practiced. I still think the Browns will cover because the Titans are beyond atrocious, but such an injury-ravaged team could struggle to cover more than a field goal.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Believe it or not, but the sharps bet the Titans at +4.5 and +4. They haven’t touched this game at +3.5. The best line for the Browns now is -3.5 +102 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Browns -3.5.

Computer Model: Browns -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

More and more money on the Browns.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 75% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I thought the Bengals would cover against the Ravens, but was shocked to see an outright upset. Then again, perhaps we should have seen it coming. Hindsight is 50/50, as Cam Newton once said, but Lamar Jackson’s reluctance to run has put a lid on this offense. He ran just twice against the Browns and Jets. He scrambled on six occasions versus the Bengals, so there was some improvement. However, Jackson clearly wasn’t 100 percent.

There’s a chance Jackson will be much better this week. He’s had a mini-bye to heal, so that could do wonders for his leg injury. Jackson should also have success throwing against a Pittsburgh secondary that isn’t 100 percent because of injuries. Pittsburgh is especially bad against tight ends, so Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely should thrive.

The Ravens’ best chance of moving the ball will be via Derrick Henry. The Steelers just surrendered the most rushing yards in franchise history, so this is not a good time to be going up against Henry and a potentially mobile Jackson.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: While we’re expecting more from the Ravens’ scoring unit this week, it’s hard to be optimistic about the Steelers’ ability to score. They posted just seven points against a defense that was ranked 24th in EPA entering Week 13.

The Steelers couldn’t do a single thing well last week. Aaron Rodgers didn’t complete a single pass beyond the line of scrimmage in the opening half, and his 21 pass attempts went for just 117 yards, which is beyond embarrassing. Making matters worse, Rodgers aggravated his hand injury, so he was even worse in the second half.

Pittsburgh couldn’t run the ball either. The team had a great matchup against Buffalo’s poor run defense, but neither Jaylen Warren nor Kenneth Gainwell could do anything on the ground. And how could they, when Rodgers refused to throw beyond the line of scrimmage? The Bills were able to play closer to the line of scrimmage, giving them a great opportunity to clamp down on the run for once.

RECAP: No matter what, games between the Ravens and Steelers are always close. At least, that’s what they tell us. This is true for games in Pittsburgh, but not so much when the teams battle each other in Baltimore. The only time the Steelers were able to stay within two touchdowns of the Ravens in Baltimore when Jackson played was back in 2020 when the Ben Roethlisberger-led 6-0 Steelers won 28-24.

Otherwise, the Steelers have never played within two touchdowns of the Ravens in Baltimore with a healthy Jackson on the field. Last year, the Ravens throttled Pittsburgh at home, 34-17 and 28-14.

The same thing could transpire in this latest meeting. Rodgers is not healthy, and the offense is completely anemic as a result. The defense, meanwhile, can’t stop the run, which will be a problem against Henry and possibly Jackson.

Now, I recognize that Jackson is banged up, but that seems to already be baked into the spread. This line was -5.5 and is now only -6. I made this line -8, so we’re getting great value in a nice buy-low spot on a Baltimore team that has had extra time to prepare for this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson had been DNP on Wednesday in each of the three weeks. He was limited Wednesday this week, so that has to be a positive sign that he’s feeling better following the mini-bye. Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, didn’t practice on Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Lamar Jackson gave me a scare with a DNP practice on Thursday, but he was back to being full in practice on Friday. It was disappointing to see Patrick Queen and some other Pittsburgh defenders not have an injury designation, but I still love the Ravens.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m high on the Ravens, but the sharps bet the Steelers at +6. The best line for the Ravens is -5.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Ravens.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -6.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Slight lean on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 58% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Despite the Seahawks scoring 26 points against the Vikings, they did not have a great offensive performance. Sam Darnold struggled with Minnesota’s pressure, while Jaxson Smith-Njigba didn’t log a single catch in the first half. The offense didn’t even score a touchdown until late in the game.

It seemed like the Vikings had the formula against Darnold, so perhaps other teams will copy what they just did. The Falcons have a strong pass defense and can rush the passer effectively. They also have a talented No. 1 cornerback who can perhaps slow down Smith-Njigba.

The Falcons are weak, however, when it comes to stopping the run. The Seahawks should be able to shine in this area by feeding the ball to Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, who continue to split carries.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: While the Falcons are a weak 23rd against the run, the Seahawks are first when it comes to halting opposing ground attacks. The Falcons run their offense through Bijan Robinson, so he’ll have to do most of his damage aerially in this game because Seattle will take away his rushing ability.

This game will be mostly on Kirk Cousins, which is problematic because the Seahawks generate the most pressures in the NFL. The Falcons normally have a stellar offensive line, but with Kaleb McGary missing and the two guards banged up, Seattle will be able to put pressure on Cousins.

While it’s unclear if Drake London will be available, Cousins will at least be able to lean on Kyle Pitts. The Seahawks have one weakness defensively, and that would be their inability to cover tight ends. Pitts had a monster game against the Seahawks last year, and he could have a similar outing in this contest.

RECAP: I don’t need to tell you that the Seahawks are the better team, but that doesn’t mean that they’re going to cover. Raheem Morris is a bozo of a coach, but one area in which he shines is bouncing back off a loss as a favorite; he’s 7-1 against the spread in that regard. Also, there’s been some sharp money coming in on the Falcons, taking this line from +7.5 to +7. Now, this could be phantom movement, where the pros might make a bigger play going the other way, but there’s reason to believe that they legitimately like the Falcons.

That reason would be the spot for Seattle. This spot is horrible. The Seahawks are coming off their revenge game for Darnold, and after this “easy” contest against a 4-8 team, they have to battle the 8-4 Colts and then the rival Rams. This is a classic sandwich game, so it’s possible that Seattle could be flat, much like the Rams were versus the Panthers last week.

One other thing to consider is Darnold’s health. Darnold has an ankle injury that could cause him to miss practice this week. If he has a bunch of limited sessions, I may end up betting the Falcons.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t think I’ll be betting this game. Sam Darnold didn’t even show up on the injury report, while Drake London was DNP on Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Drake London is out and David Onyemata looks iffy to play, but that apparently doesn’t matter to the sharps. The pro money has continued to pour in on the Falcons.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re going to bet on Kyle Pitts because the Seahawks are anemic versus tight ends. The best number is over 52.5 receiving yards -114 at BetRivers. We’re also going to ladder 70+ and 80+. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Falcons at +7.5 and +7. Most of the +7 lines are gone, but you can get +7 -120 at DraftKings. I don’t think seven is worth the -120 price tag, but I can understand why you’d want to bet up for it. The best line is +6.5 -105 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Falcons.

The Seahawks just had their Sam Darnold revenge game. After this week, they take on the 8-4 Colts and then the Rams.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -7.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 83% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below. In addition to WalterFootball t-shirts, you can also buy AMC and GameStop stock gear as well!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence has endured his ups and downs this season, but things have been more positive lately. Perhaps that’s because Jakobi Meyers has joined the team. Meyers isn’t the most talented receiver, but he’s a coach’s dream because he doesn’t drop anything. Seriously, he had no drops in 2024. This is a complete reversal from what the Jaguars have had at receiver. Brian Thomas Jr. has dropped everything this year, while Travis Hunter didn’t know where to line up when he was healthy.

Lawrence was seen to have a tough matchup against the Colts a couple of weeks ago because of the addition of Sauce Gardner, but that’s no longer the case because Gardner is week to week. The Colts don’t produce much pressure on the quarterback, so Lawrence should have success throwing to Meyers and others, including Brenton Strange, who has been a welcome return from his injury.

Gardner isn’t the only talented defender who is sidelined for the Colts. DeForest Buckner is also out, and the Colts’ run defense has suffered since he got hurt. Travis Etienne figures to have a solid game to give Lawrence favorable passing downs.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The injuries the Colts have extend to this side of the ball as well. Daniel Jones is playing with a fractured fibula. We’ve seen just one game from him, but it’s clear that he’s not the same quarterback. He tried to run only once, and it was a complete failure. The Jones under 7.5 rushing yards was the easiest bet of all time.

Jones is now a sitting duck in the pocket, which is not good news for this matchup. The Jaguars have talented edge rushers who can pressure Jones. In the past, Jones could have used his leg to counter this, but that’s not possible anymore.

Of course, the Colts will try to pound the ball with Jonthan Taylor. This should be effective against Jacksonville’s 13th-ranked run defense, but the Jaguars will have the luxury of playing closer to the line of scrimmage because of Jones’ health.

RECAP: We faded the Colts successfully last week, and we will attempt to do the same again. Jones is not the same quarterback with a fractured fibula, and it doesn’t seem as though people realize that. He was favored by 3.5 points last week, which was absurd, and now he’s a road favorite in Jacksonville. Why? It doesn’t make any sense.

The Colts are missing their top two defenders on top of their quarterback dealing with a fractured leg. And they are playing at a venue in which they’ve had little success over the years. Even dating back to the Andrew Luck days, the Colts have always lost at Jacksonville. The Jaguars have taken the previous nine meetings at home in this rivalry. The last time the Colts prevailed here was back in 2014, which was Luck’s third year.

Given Indianapolis’ decline, it seems unlikely that this streak will snap. These teams are close to being even, so it seems unreal that we’re getting the Jaguars as a home underdog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still can’t believe the Colts are favored in this game. They have a quarterback playing on a fractured leg, while their two best defenders are out. They also have the same record as their opponent, and they’re playing at a venue in which they haven’t won since 2014. What am I missing here?

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jaguars won’t have Walker Little, but they’ll get a lineman back with Patrick Mekari returning to action. Arik Armstead and Travon Walker are both questionable, but I still would love the Jaguars if both were out.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re going to bet Daniel Jones under rushing yards again because of his fractured leg. The best number is under 6.5 rushing yards -118 at BetMGM. Of the two units placed, 0.2 units will carry a 10-percent profit boost found on BetMGM.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jaguars have gotten some good news in regard to the inactives. Parker Washington is out, but they’ll get Travon Walker and Arik Armstead back from injury. The sharps have taken the Colts from -1.5 to -2.5 on Sunday morniing. The best line is +2.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -2.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 53% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It was quite the shock that Baker Mayfield played last week. Mayfield was considered week to week with a sprained AC joint. He was guaranteed to miss the Arizona game, but Mayfield didn’t get the memo. He played through the injury and was able to lead the team to a victory. Mayfield wasn’t great, but he was able to do enough to will the team to a win.

Mayfield figures to be healthier this week. He’ll also have a much easier matchup. The Saints are horrendous at defending the pass. They didn’t have much of a challenge versus Tua Tagovailoa last week, but they’ll have their hands full with Mayfield and Chris Godwin getting healthier each game.

The Saints are also supposedly strong against the run, but we didn’t see that last week when De’Von Achane ran all over them. Perhaps Bucky Irving could have similar success now that he’s 100 percent.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Tyler Shough had a nice performance against the Panthers a few weeks ago, but has otherwise been dreadful in his four starts. Shough’s matchup was as easy as it gets last week versus Miami, but was blanked throughout the entire opening half. He managed to engineer two touchdown drives late, but the first one could have been considered garbage time.

I’d like to say that Shough’s matchup gets tougher this week, but I can’t. The Buccaneers have struggled defensively lately. They rank 26th in defensive EPA since the beginning of October. They’re particularly poor against the pass because they don’t pressure the quarterback very well, so Shough should have enough time he needs to potentially lead some more touchdown drives.

Shough didn’t have much support from his rushing attack last week. I wouldn’t expect much this week either, as Tampa Bay’s run defense has improved lately with Vita Vea being another Buccaneer getting healthier.

RECAP: I don’t have much interest in betting this game. This spread seems to be priced correctly – if anything, it’s a bit high because I made this line -7.5 – and the Buccaneers have already beaten the Saints in a blowout this year, so their motivation might be a bit low, especially with the Falcons and Panthers on the horizon.

So, why not bet the Saints? Because they’re an abomination. We bet them last week because we were getting a ton of points with them against a similarly terrible team, but we know that Tampa Bay is clearly better than New Orleans. If the Buccaneers show up and fight hard in this game, and Mayfield is 100 percent, they’ll be able to win by double digits. They could totally bring full effort, but I’m not sure they will. I’m also not sure if Mayfield will be 100 percent. I suspect he’ll be better than he was last week, but how much better? That is unclear.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Two key DNPs for each team on Wednesday: For the Saints, Chris Olave missed practice, while the Buccaneers saw Tristan Wirfs sidelined. We’ll be monitoring this throughout the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you’re looking for a reason to back the Buccaneers besides the obvious, the Saints will have cluster injuries at safety, so it’ll be easier for Baker Mayfield to throw. Then again, Mayfield still may not be 100 percent. I could see this game going either way, spread-wise.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tristan Wirfs is out, which is a huge deal. I’m close to placing a unit on the Saints, but I just can’t do it. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +7.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Buccaneers have the Falcons and Panthers after this game. The Buccaneers already blew out the Saints.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -8.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Obvious action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 79% (85,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

Video of the Week: I enjoyed this video of a whack job going back in time to kill Hitler:

Funny, but unrealistic because the woman didn’t talk over him. Also, she was attractive, whereas those sorts of people tend to be fat, ugly beasts with armpit hair.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It was unclear how Joe Burrow would look coming off his extended time off. He was a bit rusty to start the game on Thanksgiving night, but improved as the evening progressed. He was quite good in the second half.

The Bills can’t be happy to hear this. Burrow has had great success against the Bills in the past. Buffalo’s defense was not tested last week by the Steelers because Aaron Rodgers was incapable of throwing the ball beyond the line of scrimmage. That obviously won’t be the case with Burrow, who could have Tee Higgins back from concussion.

Of course, the weakness of the Buffalo defense is the team’s inability to stop the run. The Bengals don’t have the best ground attack, but Chase Brown can be effective when the opposition has to focus on Burrow, Higgins, and Ja’Marr Chase.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: It was surprising that the Bills blew out the Steelers last week because both of Buffalo’s offensive tackles were sidelined. The Steelers appeared to have a big advantage on the edge, but the Bills instead rammed the ball down their throat.

The Bills will be looking to duplicate that game plan. The Bengals have the worst run defense in the NFL, so James Cook could have a monster game.

Buffalo will need to get Cook going because Cincinnati has actually been somewhat formidable defensively over the past couple of weeks. It’s hard to believe, but it’s true. The Bengals have been able to pressure Lamar Jackson and Drake Maye the past couple of weeks, and Trey Hendrickson wasn’t even on the field. If the Bills won’t have either tackle again, Josh Allen will constantly be under siege, though Allen could mitigate the pressure by scrambling, as usual.

RECAP: Bills fans can’t be happy that Burrow is back. Burrow has dominated the Bills over the years, even beating them in the playoffs a couple of years ago. The Bengals aren’t expected to repeat their success – they’re 5.5-point underdogs – but I think the sportsbooks are wrong.

The Bengals are very much a live dog in this contest. Their defense has improved markedly, but Burrow looking good in the second half of his upset victory over the Ravens is obviously the bigger factor. Burrow should be even better in this game because he’ll have more reps since returning from injury. The Bills are the better team, but I trust Burrow to keep this game close if he can’t operate with the lead. Forget being an underdog; Burrow is 44-23 against the spread in all games in which he’s not giving a touchdown or more.

This game has the makings of a close game. Burrow will usually find a way to cover when trailing, while the Bills shouldn’t have issues scoring on Cincinnati’s defense.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both Buffalo tackles were limited Wednesday. I thought we could bet Cincinnati if they were both out, but that doesn’t look to be the case.

SATURDAY NOTES: It looks like both Buffalo tackles will play. Dion Dawkins doesn’t carry an injury designation, while Spencer Brown is questionable after being limited all week. That doesn’t mean that the Bills don’t have injuries, however, as Joey Bosa and Terrel Bernard will miss this game. I still have a slight lean on the Bengals.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bills won’t have Spencer Brown on top of Terrel Bernard and Joey Bosa. Dalton Kincaid will play, however. The sharps were on the Bills at -5.5, but not -6. The best line is +6 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROPS: Dalton Kincaid is active, so we’re going to bet him against the worst tight end defense in the NFL. We’re also going to ladder him on FanDuel:

Dalton Kincaid over 34.5 receiving yards -112 (1.5 Units)

Dalton Kincaid 60+ receiving yards +330 (0.5 Units)

Dalton Kincaid 70+ receiving yards +520 (0.25 Units)

Dalton Kincaid 80+ receiving yards +800 (0.2 Units)

Dalton Kincaid 90+ receiving yards +1100 (0.15 Units)

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -7.

Computer Model: Bills -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

The Bengals are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 71% (93,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.