2025 NFL Picks – Week 14: Saints at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It was quite the shock that Baker Mayfield played last week. Mayfield was considered week to week with a sprained AC joint. He was guaranteed to miss the Arizona game, but Mayfield didn’t get the memo. He played through the injury and was able to lead the team to a victory. Mayfield wasn’t great, but he was able to do enough to will the team to a win.

Mayfield figures to be healthier this week. He’ll also have a much easier matchup. The Saints are horrendous at defending the pass. They didn’t have much of a challenge versus Tua Tagovailoa last week, but they’ll have their hands full with Mayfield and Chris Godwin getting healthier each game.

The Saints are also supposedly strong against the run, but we didn’t see that last week when De’Von Achane ran all over them. Perhaps Bucky Irving could have similar success now that he’s 100 percent.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Tyler Shough had a nice performance against the Panthers a few weeks ago, but has otherwise been dreadful in his four starts. Shough’s matchup was as easy as it gets last week versus Miami, but was blanked throughout the entire opening half. He managed to engineer two touchdown drives late, but the first one could have been considered garbage time.

I’d like to say that Shough’s matchup gets tougher this week, but I can’t. The Buccaneers have struggled defensively lately. They rank 26th in defensive EPA since the beginning of October. They’re particularly poor against the pass because they don’t pressure the quarterback very well, so Shough should have enough time he needs to potentially lead some more touchdown drives.

Shough didn’t have much support from his rushing attack last week. I wouldn’t expect much this week either, as Tampa Bay’s run defense has improved lately with Vita Vea being another Buccaneer getting healthier.

RECAP: I don’t have much interest in betting this game. This spread seems to be priced correctly – if anything, it’s a bit high because I made this line -7.5 – and the Buccaneers have already beaten the Saints in a blowout this year, so their motivation might be a bit low, especially with the Falcons and Panthers on the horizon.

So, why not bet the Saints? Because they’re an abomination. We bet them last week because we were getting a ton of points with them against a similarly terrible team, but we know that Tampa Bay is clearly better than New Orleans. If the Buccaneers show up and fight hard in this game, and Mayfield is 100 percent, they’ll be able to win by double digits. They could totally bring full effort, but I’m not sure they will. I’m also not sure if Mayfield will be 100 percent. I suspect he’ll be better than he was last week, but how much better? That is unclear.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Two key DNPs for each team on Wednesday: For the Saints, Chris Olave missed practice, while the Buccaneers saw Tristan Wirfs sidelined. We’ll be monitoring this throughout the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you’re looking for a reason to back the Buccaneers besides the obvious, the Saints will have cluster injuries at safety, so it’ll be easier for Baker Mayfield to throw. Then again, Mayfield still may not be 100 percent. I could see this game going either way, spread-wise.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tristan Wirfs is out, which is a huge deal. I’m close to placing a unit on the Saints, but I just can’t do it. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +7.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Buccaneers have the Falcons and Panthers after this game. The Buccaneers already blew out the Saints.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -8.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Obvious action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 79% (85,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Buccaneers have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Road Team is 150-103 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 46-79 ATS at home in the previous 124 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -8.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 77 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.