NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2017): 5-11 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2017): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2017): 6-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2017): 3-10-2 (-$2,180)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2017): 6-7 (-$1,795)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2017): 7-5-1 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2017): 8-5-1 (+$290)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2017): 3-10-1 (-$1,595)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2017): 9-6-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2017): 6-10 (-$730)

NFL Picks (2017): 92-112-8 (-$5,210)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 10, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games

New Orleans Saints (9-3) at Atlanta Falcons (7-5)
Line: Falcons by 2.5. Total: 51.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -2.
Thursday, Dec 7, 8:25 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Saints.

WEEK 13 RECAP: Week 13 was a disappointment, as I went 6-10 (-$730). I was lucky with the Titans covering at the very end, but the Buccaneers loss was frustrating. Tampa outgained Green Bay by 170 net yards and went into overtime as a three-point underdog, yet didn’t cover or push. That sucked! Also, the Chargers converting just one touchdown in five trips to the red zone was disappointing for sure.

I’m not sure what to make of all this, but to chalk it up to bad variance. I didn’t really hate any of my picks; not even Colts +9.5 at Jaguars. Blake Bortles should never be favored by that amount. Bortles had the game of his life, and I highly doubt he plays that well in most simulations.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons were limited to nine points Sunday because Xavier Rhodes was able to completely lock down Julio Jones. Atlanta was 1-of-10 on third down as a consequence. Whether the Saints can do the same thing or not depends on if star rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore is available, and if he’s completely healthy. Lattimore seemed close to playing last week, but decided to sit out, which was probably for the best because Carolina didn’t have a real No. 1 receiver for New Orleans to worry about. Lattimore’s plan may have been to return for this game.

If so, the Falcons could be in trouble. Matt Ryan doesn’t really have any other potent downfield weapons at his disposal. Mohamed Sanu is just OK, but cornerback Ken Crawley, who has also performed well this season, should be able to deal with him. I like Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman as pass-catchers going up against New Orleans’ middling linebackers, but that’s about it.

Another factor going against the Falcons is that talented left guard Andy Levitre won’t be playing. The Falcons had one of the better offensive lines in the NFL without Levitre, but now their interior, aside from All-Pro center Alex Mack, is pretty weak. I could see the Saints taking advantage of this and pressuring Ryan more than he’s used to.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints were also down one offensive lineman this past week, as skilled left tackle Terron Armstead sat out. The awful Andrus Peat had to start in his place, yet the Saints were still able to score 31 points against the Panthers. Curiously, Armstead was listed as active in the pre-game injury report, but he just didn’t take the field. As with Lattimore, it seems as though Armstead was saving himself for this game.

Having Armstead on the field will be crucial for the Saints to neutralize Adrian Clayborn, as New Orleans will have enough problems keeping Pro Bowl-bound defensive tackle Grady Jarrett out of the backfield. Still, Drew Brees should be able to have enough time to find his receivers, so it’ll be important for top cornerbacks Desmond Trufant and Brian Poole to suit up after missing Week 13. Trufant should be able to go, as he has cleared concussion protocol.

Of course, the Falcons won’t be able to fully concentrate on Brees because they’ll have to worry about Mark Ingram and especially Alvin Kamara coming out of the backfield. Atlanta is fairly solid against the run, but you could’ve said the same thing against the Panthers, and yet they allowed 145 rushing yards to the duo!

RECAP: The one big edge for the Falcons is that they absolutely need to win this game. If they lose this contest, they’ll be in a huge hole in the NFC wild-card race. I don’t expect the Saints to take them lightly, however, as indicated by Armstead and Lattimore “saving” themselves for this matchup. However, we don’t know if either player will be 100 percent. If Lattimore isn’t completely effective because of his ankle injury, that could allow Jones to go off.

I made this spread Falcons -2. The advance line on this game was Falcons -2.5. Yet, the Saints are favored by two because public money has been coming in on them. There’s a somewhat substantial difference between -2 and +2; the marginal difference is 5.81 percent. That’s not huge, or anything, but it is something, so I’m going to take the desperate home dog. I won’t be betting this game unless +3 becomes available.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Everyone thinks the Saints are going to win. Well, almost everyone. Eighty percent of the experts on Pick Watch have the Saints prevailing. And yet, the Falcons are favored by nearly a field goal! This spread is -2.5 -120 at 5Dimes. There’s been a ton of sharp money coming in on Atlanta. Unfortunately, I’m not nearly as confident. I think the Falcons will pull out a victory because this is a must-win for them, plus I’m not convinced Marshon Lattimore is 100 percent. However, there’s no line value for either side. I would’ve loved Atlanta at +3 (back when the Saints were favored), but it never reached that, and for good reason. I’d lay off this game, but I can see why the sharps are taking the Falcons.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Falcons need this more, but the Saints hate Atlanta and won’t just roll over.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
The Saints were a public dog, then they were a public favorite, and now they’re a public dog again.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 55% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 13 of the last 20 meetings (Falcons won last 2).

Opening Line: Falcons -2.

Opening Total: 55.

Weather: Dome.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Saints 24
Falcons -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 51.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 20, Saints 17

Detroit Lions (6-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8)
Line: Lions by 1. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Stafford, Winston).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -1 (Stafford).
Sunday, Dec 10, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature will continue in this spot, and I’m going to emphasize injuries (particularly those on the offensive line)…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Chicago Bears: The Bears have dropped four in a row, but they were without Danny Trevathan or top safety Adrian Amos for all four of contests. Trevathan is not only the heart and soul of Chicago’s defense, but he also happens to be the brains of the operation. Amos, meanwhile, has been playing on a Pro Bowl level. The Bears frequently blow coverages with Trevathan being out of the lineup, so their defense will see a huge improvement once the star linebacker returns to the field.

San Francisco 49ers: It’s amazing what a competent signal-caller can do. The 49ers have had bad (Brian Hoyer) and abysmal (C.J. Beathard) quarterbacking this year, but Jimmy Garoppolo was solid against the Bears. With Garoppolo, the 49ers are so much better than 2-10. They have a solid running back, two talented tackles, and several impressive play-makers in the front seven. They still have some glaring holes at receiver and in the secondary, but had Garoppolo started all year, I get the sense that the 49ers would be 6-6 or so right now.

Overrated NFL Teams:

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are not a good football team. They’re 7-5, but check out the quarterbacks they’ve beaten prior to Matthew Stafford: Tom Savage Knuckleblade, Brett Hundley, Matt Moore, E.J. Manuel, DeShone Kizer and Andy Dalton. Whoop-dee-doo. Beating the Lions was nice, but Detroit was missing three offensive linemen. Plus, Jimmy Smith is out for the year, so the secondary won’t be as good going forward.

Cincinnati Bengals: I hope no one is fooled into the illusion that the Bengals are mediocre following their wins against Denver and Cleveland. They had no business beating the Broncos. They were legitimately outgained by 151 yards, and they averaged 0.7 fewer yards per play compared to the Brock Osweiler-led Broncos. If it wasn’t for an Osweiler red-zone interception and a C.J. Anderson fumble at midfield, the Bengals may have lost by double digits. As for the Steeler game, they moved the ball well, only because of Ryan Shazier’s injury. Now, they could be without Vontaze Burfict.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars prevailed over the Chargers because Los Angeles made so many mistakes. Jacksonville had just one legitimate scoring drive in that contest. The team also had a nice win over a lethargic Cincinnati team that couldn’t pressure the quarterback or get off the field on third down. Plus, the result would’ve likely been 16-7 if it weren’t for a punt return, which is obviously less impressive than 23-7. Beating the Colts wasn’t impressive at all. Blake Bortles still sucks, his receivers are pedestrian, and his offensive line is not good. The Jaguars are just an average team, so it’s no surprise they lost at Arizona. They remind me of the Giants from 2016. They’re overachieving, and they’re likely going to make the playoffs, but they’ll lose in the postseason right away and will win just 3-4 games next year once things stop going their way.

Tennessee Titans: The Titans have been so sluggish recently. They were blown out against the Steelers, and they’ve also had trouble putting away the Texans, Bengals, Browns and Colts (twice). They allowed Tom Savage to have a career day, and if it wasn’t for Derrick Henry, their spread record would be abysmal. That said, I feel like the Titans are better than they’ve looked, so I just think it’s terrible coaching that has hurt them. Seriously, how is Mike Mularkey still a head coach in this league?

DETROIT OFFENSE: There’s no line posted on this game because of Matthew Stafford’s injury. Stafford had his hand stepped on in the Baltimore game. X-rays came back negative, but Stafford’s hand is bruised, so there’s no telling how effective he’ll be in this game. Stafford is a tough guy, so he’s expected to suit up, but it’s clear that he won’t be 100 percent.

It’s a shame for Stafford, as he might have a tremendous matchup, depending on which Tampa players are able to take the field. The Buccaneers had a contingent of players missing last week’s game, including top edge rusher Robert Ayers, starting cornerback Vernon Hargreaves, and solid interior pass-rusher Clinton McDonald. It’s unclear if any of those players will return for this game, but if Tampa’s defeat against the Packers is any indication, the Buccaneers will need them.

The Lions also have some major injuries on this side of the ball, even aside from Stafford. Part of the reason the Lions struggled to score against the Ravens in the early going was that their top two offensive linemen, guard T.J. Lang and tackle Ricky Wagner, were knocked out with injuries. Stafford was already playing without his starting center, so he was really in a tough situation. The big concern here is Lang; if he can’t go, the Lions will have a backup guard going up against All-Pro defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, which just seems like a nightmare for Detroit.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers may have lost to the Packers, but they were the better team. They had outgained Green Bay in regulation by nearly 200 yards, generating 395 net yards of offense. They moved the ball with ease on most of their drives, at least until they reached Green Bay territory. They were guilty of numerous blunders there, including two botched snaps and a lost fumble returned for a touchdown. It really is a crime that they didn’t cover.

I don’t see why the Buccaneers wouldn’t have the same sort of success moving the chains in this matchup. Winston will be a week healthier, and it’s not like Tampa Bay will be facing much resistance from Detroit’s defense. The Lions have a couple of very talented players in their secondary – Darius Slay, Glover Quin – but they often have trouble covering because they blow countless assignments. Winston has lots of weapons at his disposal, so even if Slay erases Mike Evans, he’ll still be able to target DeSean Jackson, Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard.

The one major concern with Tampa’s scoring attack is that the offensive line is in shambles because of injuries to the top two blockers, right tackle Demar Dotson and center Ali Marpet. Left tackle Donovan Smith is a train wreck, as he couldn’t keep a plastic bag blowing in the wind from reaching the backfield. He’ll struggle against Ziggy Ansah, though you could’ve said the same thing last week with Smith going up against Nick Perry, and yet Winston punished the Packers with well-timed screens and checkdowns. I don’t trust the undisciplined Lions to cover those either.

RECAP: There’s no spread yet, so I can’t issue a definitive pick as of this moment. However, I’m leaning toward the Buccaneers unless the line is outrageous. Stafford is an awful spread quarterback to begin with, and now he’ll be dealing with an injured hand. I’ll be shocked if he’s 100 percent, while Winston will be healthier. Tampa seems like it could be the right side.

For updates, check back later or follow me @walterfootball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Matthew Stafford has been practicing, but there’s no line posted yet. I imagine we’ll see a spread Friday evening once Stafford is declared likely to play.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line was just posted at Pinnacle, with Detroit favored by 2.5. I’ll have a pick in an hour or two.

PICK POSTED: Matthew Stafford seems like he’s going to play, but may not be anywhere close to 100 percent. The Lions will also be missing right tackle Ricky Wagner and possibly guard T.J. Lang. I’d like to bet the Buccaneers heavily, but there’s some concern with Jameis Winston not being 100 percent either. I think I’m going to put a unit on the Buccaneers, but hopefully the spread rises. I would like +3.5 much more.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, look at all of this sharp action on the Buccaneers! This line opened Tampa +2.5, went up to +3, and then fell to pick ’em (+1 at Bovada). I’m not going to bet on Buccaneers PK, as the line value I desired at +3 is gone.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 55% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Road Team is 80-50 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Lions are 14-5 ATS after losing by 20+ points since 2007.

Lions are 24-35 ATS against losing teams the previous 58 instances.

Matthew Stafford is 9-23 ATS in December and January.

Buccaneers are 21-45 ATS at home in the previous 67 instances.

Buccaneers are 8-22 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Lions -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 23, Lions 20
Buccaneers +1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 24, Buccaneers 21

Chicago Bears (3-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-7)
Line: Bengals by 6. Total: 39.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -4.
Sunday, Dec 10, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. Here were last week’s most-bet sides:

Patriots -8.5

Eagles -5

Rams -7

Chargers -13.5

Redskins +1

The highest-bet sides were 30-26-3 heading into Week 12. The public won against versus the books heading into Sunday night, but the Eagles failing to cover set up a win for the house. Highest-bet sides are now 32-29-3.

Here are the five highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning:

Patriots -11

Seahawks +3

Eagles +2

Vikings -3

Packers -3

Three road favorites, but what’s this? Two underdogs? I imagine the pre-game hosts will be asking, “Do the Jaguars and Rams have a shot at winning this game!?”

CHICAGO OFFENSE: We have to begin with the Bengals’ defense after what transpired Monday night. JuJu Smith-Schuster knocked out Vontaze Burfict with a dirty hit in the fourth quarter. Burfict had to be taken into the locker room on a stretcher, and while he appeared to be in better shape than Ryan Shazier was, he could still miss this game. If so, Cincinnati’s defense will be much worse than usual. The Bengals are not the same without Burfict, as he’s their best defensive player outside of Geno Atkins.

Assuming Burfict is out, the Bears should be able to establish the run with Jordan Howard. Tarik Cohen will also receive more opportunities in space with Burfict out of the lineup. John Fox wasn’t using Cohen for a while, for some reason, so it’s nice to see that Cohen is part of the game plan again.

Getting Howard moving will be crucial for the Bears to keep Mitchell Trubisky in favorable situations. The Bengals have a terrific defensive line, and I have to imagine that defensive end Carlos Dunlap will give right tackle Bobby Massie tremendous problems. That is certainly an issue, as the Bears already have to worry about Atkins in the interior.
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bears have defensive injury issues of their own. They had star linebacker Danny Trevathan back last week following a multi-game absence, but they were missing star safety Adrian Amos and effective slot corner Bryce Callahan. Making matters worse, two of their better players in the front seven, Mitch Unrein and Pernell McPhee, had to leave the field with injuries.

It’s unclear who will be able to take the field, but the Bears will have a great opportunity to apply tons of pressure on Andy Dalton if they have McPhee available. Cincinnati has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, with guard Clint Boling being the only viable starter up front. McPhee would have a tremendous matchup against right tackle Andre Smith if he were given the green light, and I don’t know what the Bengals plan on doing about Akiem Hicks.

Of course, the secondary will have to deal with A.J. Green, who was a monster Monday night. Having Amos back would be enormous. Jimmy Garoppolo shredded Chicago’s Amos-less secondary last week, and Andy Dalton could have similar success if Amos isn’t in the lineup.

RECAP: Both teams have numerous injury question marks, so it’s difficult to issue a pick on this game so early in the week. However, unless Burfict plays, and most of Chicago’s questionable players are out, I’ll be on the Bears, and probably for two units or so.

As mentioned, the Bengals are not the same without Burfict. Overcoming his absence will be difficult enough; they also have to get up for the “lowly” Bears after losing such a physical and emotional game against the Steelers. That was Cincinnati’s “Super Bowl,” and now the team’s playoff aspirations have come to an end. I can’t see them playing at full effort versus the Bengals. This is just an awful spot for them.

Also, the Bengals being favored by this many points seems like a sketchy situation to me. Aside from a game against the stupid Browns, they haven’t scored more than 20 points since their Week 8 matchup against the Colts, when they posted 24. Unless the Bears are missing numerous players, they’ll be able to field a good defense and limit Cincinnati’s offensive output.

I’m going to pencil in the Bears for two units, but I’ll make adjustments throughout the week based on who’s able to play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not sure why the sharps haven’t jumped on the Bears, but I’ll take the line movement. The Bengals are now -6.5 -115 in some books. If this gets to +7, I’ll lock it in.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line is way too high. The Bengals, who nearly lost to the Colts at home a few weeks ago, will be missing Vontaze Burfict and several other defensive players. They could also be without Geno Atkins, who didn’t practice Friday. The Bears will be without three key defenders as well – Pernell McPhee, Adrian Amos, Eddie Goldman – but that will only keep me from increasing my wager too much. I still like Chicago a lot, and I’m willing to bet three units here.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was sharp action coming in on the Bears +6.5 on Sunday morning. This line is still a good one at +6 (-105 at Bovada), and I’m going to keep this at three units.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.

The Bengals just played their “Super Bowl” and lost. It’ll be difficult for them to get up for the Bears.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 54% (4,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Bears are 16-34 ATS in December road games the previous 50 instances.

Bengals are 22-14 ATS at home since 2013.

Bengals are 8-13 ATS after playing the Steelers.

Opening Line: Bengals -5.5.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 34 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Bengals 20, Bears 16
Bears +6 -105 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 33, Bengals 7

Indianapolis Colts (3-9) at Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Line: Bills by 3.5. Total: 38.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -7.5 (Taylor) or Colts -2 (Peterman).
Sunday, Dec 10, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: TBA.

HATE MAIL: I lost in Week 13, so I naturally had some hate mail. This is from Ross Avila:

Ross actually unfriended me on Facebook. You’ll see why later.

Here’s someone who gave me a compliment:

See, it’s nice people like this Gold Palmtree individual who strengthens the community through positive feedback.

Someone responded to this:

Another compliment after such a poor week? Wow, you guys are awesome! And who the hell is “Olive Snow,” anyway? Jon Snow’s bastard cousin? Olive Snow made another post:

Unlike Jon Snow, who overcame his bastard status, Olive Snow is just a douche who wastes his time complaining about a team no one cares about on random comment boards. Doubt he’ll be slaying any White Walkers anytime soon…

A common theme every week is someone not understanding that I don’t put any stock into zero-unit picks. Hence, the zero units…

I just changed my pick, so I don’t understand how Green Pizza didn’t realize that I simply just changed the score a bit. I clearly don’t have any confidence in the selection.

And finally, this guy posted some poor information:

I hate when people don’t know the difference between “your” and “you’re.” Those who use dumb emoticons are right behind them on my s**t list. I don’t mind the occasional smiley face, but these emoticons are the language of the dumb. They’re basically hieroglyphics, which is the language people used prior to the creation of the alphabet. Why are we regressing? We should be better than dumb emoticons.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: As with the Detroit-Tampa Bay game, there’s no spread posted because the quarterback situation is unclear for the team with the better record. However, while Matthew Stafford expects to play, Tyrod Taylor seems like he’ll be sitting out this contest. Taylor suffered a knee injury against the Patriots, and while Sean McDermott called him “day to day,” this is the perfect excuse for McDermott to use Nathan J. Peterman again, since that’s what he wants to do.

Peterman was overwhelmed in his first matchup, and while he’ll be going up against a much softer defense, at home, I expect him to struggle once again. The Colts have their defensive issues, but the one thing they can do well is stop the run, thanks to Johnathan Hankins and Al Woods. I suspect they’ll keep LeSean McCoy in check after limiting Leonard Fournette this past Sunday, and that’ll force Peterman to beat them downfield.

The Colts have one of the worst cornerback groups in the NFL with Rashaan Melvin out, but I don’t think Peterman will be able to take advantage of that liability, especially with his pedestrian receivers. I also expect Peterman to be rattled with some pressure, as edge rusher Jabaal Sheard should be able to beat rookie tackle Dion Dawkins.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts have protection issues of their own, though I think those are more on Jacoby Brissett for holding the ball too long. Brissett took too many sacks once again this past week, though the excuse was that he was battling the Jaguars. The Bills don’t provide nearly as much pressure, especially with Marcell Dareus gone. Indianapolis will be able to stymie Buffalo’s best pass-rusher, Jerry Hughes, thanks to left tackle Anthony Castonzo.

Brissett will have more time this week to find his receivers downfield, and he’ll be able to have success throwing to T.Y. Hilton if cornerback Tre’Davious White is out. Thanks to Rob Gronkowski, White is in concussion protocol, which is huge for this matchup because White may not be around to limit Hilton. White, despite being a rookie, has been playing at an elite level, so his absence changes the entire defense.

Speaking of a player’s absence affecting the defense, Dareus’ departure has made Buffalo so much worse versus the run, so I expect the Colts will be able to establish Frank Gore. The veteran back is still running hard, and he’s getting close to passing Eric Dickerson for seventh on the all-time rushing list, so the Colts should be fully motivated to have Gore perform well.

RECAP: Again, there’s no spread posted on this game, but I have to believe I’ll be on the Colts regardless. If Taylor is in the lineup, this spread will probably be too high based on Indianapolis’ awful showing in Jacksonville last week. If Peterman starts, he’ll likely throw lots of interceptions again. Plus, I expect Buffalo to be flat following its loss to the Patriots. The Bills threw the kitchen sink against the Patriots, yet came up short. How will they get up for the Colts?

This might be a large bet, so check back later, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tyrod Taylor is less certain to play than Matthew Stafford. He’s been practicing, but moving around with a limp. We may not get a line on this game until Saturday.

SATURDAY NOTES: A line was just posted at Pinnacle. The Colts opened +4, but that was bet down by the sharps within minutes to +3. I’ll post a pick in an hour or two.

PICK POSTED: I was watching this line movement on Pinnacle throughout Saturday evening. The line opened Bills -4, and it was instantly bet down by the sharps. Now, the Colts are +3 -120. Indianapolis is the right side if Nathan J. Peterman starts. Unfortunately, it’s not yet clear if Peterman or Tyrod Taylor will start. The Bills are saying that Taylor is a game-time decision. I wish they’d just make up their minds already. Check back Sunday morning. If Taylor starts, I don’t know where I’ll go with this, but if it’s Peterman, I’ll have three units on the Colts if +3 is still available in some shape or form.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no Tyrod Taylor or Cordy Glenn for the Bills, so Colts +3.5 seems like a great bet. I mean, how can a Nathan J. Peterman-quarterbacked team beat anyone by four or more!? I’m keeping this at three units.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

The Bills just threw the kitchen sink at the Patriots and still lost. I can’t imagine them mustering lots of energy against the Colts.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Everyone but the sharps is betting the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 75% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 18-10 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Opening Line: .

Opening Total: .

Weather: Cloudy, 30 degrees. Mild wind, 18 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Bills 17, Colts 16
Colts +3.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 38.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 13, Colts 7

Oakland Raiders (6-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
Line: Chiefs by 4. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -1.5.
Sunday, Dec 10, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Recency bias is an amazing thing. Following the Chiefs’ latest loss, Travis Kelce lashed out at the media, chiding them for criticizing Alex Smith. Kelce claimed that the team’s struggles weren’t on Smith, conveniently forgetting that his team scored only nine points against the Giants and just 10 versus the Bills. Smith struggled mightily in those games, and he finally performed well, so he wasn’t responsible for the losing streak? Really?

Smith did well to torch the Jets, as he was finally aggressive. This wasn’t the case in prior weeks when he was overly conservative, so if he continues to play like he did last week, he should have plenty of success against the Raiders. Oakland’s defensive issues are well established. The team can’t stop the pass at all because of some weak cornerbacks, and it struggles to contain tight ends, so both Kelce and Tyreek Hill figure to have big performances again.

One area where the Chiefs will continue to struggle is the ground game. Kareem Hunt has been in a slump, and I don’t see him breaking out of it in this game. The Raiders have been much better versus the run since acquiring NaVorro Bowman. Thus, if the Chiefs establish a lead, I don’t know if they’ll be able to keep it.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Kansas City’s real problems are on this side of the ball. The team has some atrocious defensive backs, and that includes Darrelle Revis, who had a horrendous debut last week. Josh McCown went up and down the field on the Chiefs’ anemic secondary, so if he was able to have tons of success, what’s going to happen with Derek Carr?

Carr will have Michael Crabtree back from suspension, and Amari Cooper could return as well from his concussion. Carr should have a relatively clean pocket – Kansas City’s only potent pass-rusher is Justin Houston – so he’ll be able to pick apart Kansas City’s secondary, just as he did in a Thursday night matchup when he threw for 417 yards and three touchdowns. It can’t be stressed enough how much the Chiefs miss Eric Berry.

Speaking of that game, the Raiders didn’t have Marshawn Lynch the entire 60 minutes because he ran onto the field and hugged an official. Lynch exploded for a long run last week, and he could have another one this week, as the Chiefs also struggle against ground attacks.

RECAP: If you listened to our picks podcast last week, you may have heard how surprised Kenny and I were that the advance line on this game was Chiefs -6.5. If I lived in Vegas, I would’ve driven straight to the Westgate and placed a bet on Oakland.

Unfortunately, I’m marooned in freezing-cold Feasterville, Pa., and we’re stuck with this +4 number. It’s not nearly as good as +6.5 – six is a big key number now because of the new overtime rules – but I still think the line is too high. I made this Kansas City -1.5. It appears as though the public still hasn’t caught on to how bad the Chiefs are. Because Kansas City has no defense or running game, it needs to rely on Alex Smith torching opposing defenses. Smith can do that versus bad stop units like Oakland’s, but the Raiders should be able to keep up in a shootout.

I’ve been debating between two and three units for this game, and I’m going to stick with two because I don’t fully trust Oakland. Still, the Raiders should be the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Marcus Peters was suspended since my write-up, but that hasn’t changed my opinion on this game, since Peters doesn’t shadow. This wager will be for two or three units, but I haven’t decided yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no major injuries for either team, so I have nothing new to say about this game. I’m still on the Raiders for two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m getting a bad feeling about this game. I woke up thinking about this, and I just got a sense that this could be the game the Chiefs figure everything out and rebound. Furthermore, Pinnacle is listing this at -4.5. That’s a terrible sign, so I’m not going to bet this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 58% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Road Team has won 14 of the last 22 meetings.

Raiders are 18-34 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Chiefs -4.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 50 degrees, Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Chiefs 31, Raiders 30
Raiders +4 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 26, Raiders 15

Minnesota Vikings (10-2) at Carolina Panthers (8-4)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -1.
Sunday, Dec 10, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Vikings.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Those of you who have been reading this site for a long time may remember Bo-Bo, the worst fantasy player of all time. Bo-Bo was in a fantasy league of mine, and he always finished in last place, no matter how hard he tried. It was so bad that he had to retire from fantasy.

Well, we may have found the next Bo-Bo. Facebook friend Tyler R. sent this screen shot over:

Wow. How do you get to a point where you’re starting Allen Hurns, Willie Snead AND Antonio Gates? This might have worked out in 2015, but not now! Perhaps Masonic Secrets is a caveman from the year 2015, and he’s simply confused about who’s good in fantasy. Look, he even has Chris Ivory and Marshawn Lynch. Him being lost in time makes so much sense!

2. Speaking of bad players, there are a number of terrible quarterbacks in my NFL Quarterback Power Rankings page. If you haven’t seen it yet, check it out! This is something I hope to update on a weekly basis going forward.

3. If you didn’t see Dick Stockton’s Ron Burgandy’s moment on live TV, you’re in for a treat:

If I had feelings, I’d feel bad laughing about this. It’s sad that Stockton is at this moment in his life after being such a great announcer for so many years. I think the turning point was when there was a sparrow living in his nest of hair several years ago, but that’s long gone as well.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It seems like anyone expecting Case Keenum to regress is going to be sorely disappointed. Keenum continues to thrive, though I will say that last week’s output was disappointing. The Falcons were down their top two cornerbacks, yet the Vikings scored just 14 points. They better hope that’s not a sign of things to come.

Keenum will certainly be tested in this game. Four of the previous five teams he’s battled have had soft defenses: Cleveland, Washington, Detroit and Atlanta. The lone exception was the Rams, and they lost their top cornerback in the middle of the game. I’m curious to see how Keenum performs in this contest because the Panthers will hit him and his teammates in the mouth. Kawann Short will dominate the trenches, and Luke Kuechly will help shut down Latavius Murray, forcing Keenum to beat them downfield in a 40-degree environment.

That said, the Viking receivers have matchup edges in this contest. The Panthers have an excellent front seven, but their cornerbacks are very pedestrian. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen should be able to get open against them, but we’ll see if Keenum can locate them on third down in unfavorable conditions.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Vikings have an outstanding defense, but they have one liability. They have just one linebacker, Anthony Barr, who can cover well. Eric Kendricks has not been himself this year, so that could open some opportunities for Christian McCaffrey as a pass-catching weapon out of the backfield. McCaffrey wasn’t 100 percent last week, so the Panthers didn’t use him as much as they should have, but McCaffrey figures to be in better shape in this contest.

I also expect Cam Newton to have success moving the chains on the ground. Newton is so difficult to stop in that regard, and it seems like this is a good opportunity to beat the opposition with his legs.

That said, the Vikings are terrific elsewhere. They have a huge mismatch with Everson Griffen going up against inept left tackle Matt Kalil. Also, Xavier Rhodes, who just erased Julio Jones, will be able to take away Newton’s only viable downfield weapon, Devin Funchess. It sounds like Greg Olsen will play, but it’s unclear how healthy he is right now.

RECAP: The advance spread on this game was Carolina -2.5. Now, the Vikings are favored by three. It must have been one hell of a week for these two teams to warrant a swing of 5.5 points!

I think the real line should be somewhere in this middle. I made this spread Carolina -1, which seems right to me. The Vikings are a great team for sure, but the Panthers are very good and shouldn’t be home underdogs. They beat the Falcons as hosts and were leading the Eagles in a Thursday night affair before Kuechly got hurt. This spread is an overreaction. Remember, if it wasn’t for a missed Matt Bryant 45-yard field goal in the fourth quarter, Minnesota would’ve beaten Atlanta only by two, a margin that would obviously allow Carolina to cover this spread. I consider the Falcons and Panthers equals, and this game is much more important for Carolina. Conversely, the Vikings, playing their third-consecutive road affair, could be tired.

I like the Panthers for three units. It’s scary to bet against the Vikings, but this line is just way off, so Carolina definitely seems like the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s suddenly sharp money on the Panthers, taking this line off +3. You can still find +3 -120 at BetUS and Bovada, but I don’t like this game nearly as much at +2.5. I would not lock in +3 -120.

SATURDAY NOTES: As mentioned Thursday, there’s sharp money on the Panthers. Shaq Thompson has been ruled out, but Greg Olsen is returning, and there’s a chance Ryan Kalil might play. I still like Carolina, and the best line available is +3 -115 at Bovada.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Good news-good news-bad news for Carolina bettors. Good news No. 1 is that the sharps are betting the Panthers. Good news No. 2 is that the Vikings are missing their starting center, Pat Elflein, and they’ve had to reshuffle their entire offensive line as a result. That can’t possibly be a positive omen. The bad news is that this spread is now +2.5 in most books. There’s still +3 -125 at Bovada, but that line isn’t appealing. I should’ve locked this in earlier. I hate not getting +3 because Minnesota winning by three is a very likely result. Plus, from what I’ve learned, this is just a bad matchup for the Panthers, so I’m going to cut this down to one unit.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

The Panthers need this much more than the Vikings.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Lots of money on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 66% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Mike Zimmer is 41-17 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Cam Newton is 22-16 ATS off a loss as long as he’s not favored by 7+.

Opening Line: Vikings -1.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Sunny, 40 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Panthers 20, Vikings 17
Panthers +3 -125 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 31, Vikings 24

Green Bay Packers (6-6) at Cleveland Browns (0-12)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 39.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -1.5.
Sunday, Dec 10, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Browns.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Much was made about the playoff seeding. The big controversy was slotting Alabama at No. 4 over Ohio State. However, it was obviously the right decision, and the committee needs to be praised for it.

Sure, Ohio State won the Big Ten Championship, but they suffered two losses. One defeat was fine, but they surrendered 55 points to Iowa. FIFTY-FIVE points! Alabama would have never looked that bad against the Hawkeyes. Not in a million years.

Alabama, quite simply, was the better team. If the Tide played in the Big Ten, I think they would’ve won it easily, and if Ohio State were in the SEC, the Buckeyes would’ve had three-plus losses. It’s that simple.

2. One of the best college football-related moments of the year is the Dr. Pepper Challenge where two college students throw footballs like old grandmas into giant foam cans to see who will win some money. It’s great because it’s so fun to make fun of these people.

In the first game this year, a guy lost because he didn’t throw the ball like an old grandma as well as the girl he was battling. Maybe he would’ve won had he thrown the ball like a man, but he ended up forfeiting the money. The girl, by the way, said she loved the “Dr. Pepper company” – whatever that means – and that this was going to help her pay for her pharmacy degree. I found that odd, since my cousin makes lots of money selling drugs, and he never graduated college.

Just once, I want the winner of the Dr. Pepper Challenge to say something like the following after winning:

“This is gonna help me get a keg for the big party at Alpha Kappa tonight wooooo!”

3. I’m not done with the Dr. Pepper Challenge, as they gave us this wonderful moment that I referenced in the NFL Power Rankings:

I could see Browns owner Jimmy Haslam watching that and shouting, “HOLY HELL, WE MAY HAVE FOUND OUR NEXT QUARTERBACK, AND WE MIGHT NOT HAVE TO SURRENDER A SECOND-ROUND PICK FOR HIM!!! BUT IF IT TAKES A THIRD, GET IT DONE!!!”

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I was talking to Facebook friend Neph D. (from NFL Smashing) about the Packers-Buccaneers game. He didn’t catch the end of it, and he surmised that Brett Hundley had a great drive in overtime to will the Packers to a victory that happened to cover the spread (UGH!) The thing is, the Packers ran the ball on every play, as they didn’t trust Hundley to throw whatsoever. Hundley had some nice scrambles, but the overtime win was all Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones. Hundley barely had anything to do with it.

Hundley threw for only 84 yards against the Buccaneers’ sorry defense. That’s it. EIGHTY-FOUR yards! It’s a crime that the Buccaneers didn’t cover, but I did get lucky with Tennessee, so I’m not going to complain too much. Nevertheless, despite the promising matchup, I don’t think it’s a given that Hundley will have aerial success. He’ll have some nice drives, but he always seems good for a turnover at the end of them. Plus, Jason McCourty is around to shut down Hundley’s preferred receiver, Davante Adams. Jabrill Peppers could also be out, which is a blessing in disguise, as he’s utterly clueless on the field. Backup Kai Nacua is better.

Meanwhile, I don’t think Williams and Jones will have as much success on the ground. The Browns have been fairly decent against the run for most of the year. They have Danny Shelton to disrupt the interior, and I don’t think the Packers will be able to block him at all.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: DeShone Kizer has been terrible most of the year, struggling to read defenses and holding the ball too long in the pocket. However, I thought he had a somewhat decent performance last week against a great Charger defense. Kizer struggled early, but had some solid drives, thanks mostly to Josh Gordon. Part of the problem for Kizer has been his horrific receiving corps. Corey Coleman has missed most of the year, while Kenny Britt simply quit in some games. Gordon, seemingly realizing that he shouldn’t have taken his career for granted, was imposing, considering the competition. He beat elite corner Casey Hayward on some occasions, catching four balls for 85 yards.

Obviously, Gordon has a much easier matchup in this game. Green Bay’s cornerbacks are notoriously abysmal. Kizer should be able to connect with Gordon on numerous occasions for big gains, and he’ll also be able to use his legs to move the chains. Kizer’s mobility will be crucial, given that he’s protected very poorly on the edge, and the Packers have Nick Perry and Clay Matthews on the other side of the ball.

As for Isaiah Crowell, I do not expect him to have much success despite the Buccaneers having Peyton Barber rush for 100-plus yards last week. With talented nose tackle Kenny Clark playing in his second game back from injury, the Packers figure to be better against the run. That said, they’ll still be beaten on screens and quick throws to the running back, so Duke Johnson could have a solid performance.

RECAP: I can’t believe I’m doing this. Ugh. Yes, I’m doing this. I’m betting the Browns. FML.

To make myself feel better about this, I’ll say that I’m fading the Packers. Yes, that’s it. Fading the Packers seems like a good idea, considering that Hundley is favored by more than a field goal on the road, which just seems bizarre. Hundley sucks, and I think the line should be Green Bay -1.5. This spread is just too high.

I know that placing money on the Browns seems like a horrible idea, but I think they’re going to be better with Gordon on the field. He gives them a legitimate downfield threat, which will help the offense as a whole. They had some success against the Chargers’ great defense, so why can’t they move the chains against the Packers’ poor corners?

Also, this seems like a great spot for the Browns. They’re desperate to avoid 0-16, so they’ll be going at it 100 percent. Conversely, the Packers are coming off an overtime win, and they have to battle the Panthers and Vikings after this, so they could be looking ahead.

If I trusted the Browns more, this would be a four- or five-unit pick. However, I can’t ignore the fact that they could look dominant in this game and yet still find a way to blow the cover. Thus, I’m going to limit my wager to two units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Browns fired Sashi Brown, but I don’t think that affects this game. The sharps don’t either, as they’ve bet the Browns. I’m still betting Cleveland, erm, I mean fading Green Bay for two units.

SATURDAY NOTES: It sucks that the Browns probably won’t have Danny Shelton – he missed practice all week – but the Packers could be missing Nick Perry, who hasn’t practiced at all either. Green Bay will also be missing top cornerback Davon House. Granted, House isn’t good, but he’s still better than the other crap the Packers have at the position. I still like the Browns for a couple of units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Browns, as they’ve been all season. Perhaps they’re finally getting rewarded for it! This line is +2.5 in most books, but still +3 -105 at Bovada, which I would lock in ASAP. BetUS also has +3 -125, which is not nearly as good. Davon House will play for the Packers, but Nick Perry is out.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Packers are coming off an overtime victory, and they have the 8-4 Panthers and 10-2 Vikings after this game, which the Browns will be desperate to win.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

The public is once again betting on Brett Hundley. Or, rather, fading the Browns.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 70% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Packers -4.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 30 degrees. Mild wind, 18 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Packers 17, Browns 16
Browns +3 -105 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$210
Under 39 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 27, Browns 21

San Francisco 49ers (2-10) at Houston Texans (4-8)
Line: Texans by 3. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -2.
Sunday, Dec 10, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: 49ers.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started six years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady and Walter White. I’ll have new answers to Spam Mails here, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Though the 49ers scored only 15 points against the Bears, Jimmy Garoppolo played very well in his debut with his new team. He was able to keep drives moving by converting 10-of-18 third downs, and he would’ve posted more points if an interception hadn’t been the result of a ripped ball out of the hands of Louis Murphy. Also, better success in the red zone would’ve helped as well; San Francisco had to settle for five field goals.

The 49ers should be able to move the chains consistently once again this week. Houston’s defense has been ravaged by injury and free-agent departures from the previous offseason. They have just one player who can provide steady pressure on the quarterback, Jadeveon Clowney, and he’ll be matched up with Joe Staley, who should be able to handle him fairly well. Garoppolo figures to have enough time to find his top two receivers, Marquise Goodwin and Trent Taylor, both of whom caught every single target thrown their way last week.

While Garopplo will be able to throw all over Houston’s poor corners, I don’t expect Carlos Hyde to have much success on the ground. The Texans still are capable of stopping the run well, so Hyde will be limited once again.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The 49ers don’t have the best defense either, but unlike San Francisco, the Texans don’t have the quarterback to take advantage of it. Tom Savage Knuckleblade had a mid-range performance last week – a relatively great showing for him – but I don’t expect that to happen again. He’s not a good quarterback, to put it nicely, and he could be responsible for several turnovers in this contest as he regresses to the mean.

A big part of Savage’s predicted struggles is the offensive line. Thanks to injuries and the departure of Duane Brown, Houston has the worst blocking group in the NFL. They have a guard playing left tackle, for crying out loud! I don’t see them blocking Solomon Thomas, Tank Carradine, and especially DeForest Buckner effectively at all. Savage will obviously connect with the unstoppable DeAndre Hopkins on numerous occasions, but the success will be inconsistent and limited because of the poor blocking.

I don’t think the Texans will have much success on the ground either. They just block so poorly, and the 49ers have been better versus the run lately. Having Reuben Foster back from injury has obviously been a huge boon for their defense.

RECAP: This is my top pick of the week. I absolutely love the 49ers at +3 or higher.

I don’t understand this spread at all. San Francisco should be favored. The 49ers have played in many close games this year despite having bad (Brian Hoyer) and terrible (C.J. Beathard) quarterbacking. Garoppolo, despite his inexperience, is infinitely better than those two signal-callers. He makes the 49ers a viable team for the first time since the Jim Harbaugh days.

With that in mind, why is Houston favored by a field goal? It makes absolutely no sense to me. Savage is a horrible quarterback. He should not be laying points. Betting against Savage as a touchdown underdog has worked the past two weeks, but now we get to do it with him being a field-goal favorite? Sign me up!

This is a five-unit wager, and I’m locking in +3 -110 the first second I see it. This line is +3 -115 in most places, which is still a great number, but I’m hoping for better.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Much like the Panthers-Vikings game, we lost some line value with the 49ers, as they’re now +3 -120. I’m still holding out hope for a better number on San Francisco, my top pick of the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nearly all the +3s are gone, but there are a couple lingering at +3 -120. I’m getting the urge to lock that in at BetUS. There are no injury concerns for this game, save for Trent Brown, though he’s expected to play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the 49ers down to +1, but there was some professional action on Houston -1 the minute it was announced that the 49ers will be missing Trent Brown. It really sucks Brown will be out, but I still love the 49ers +3 wager. I only like +1.5 a little bit (two units at most).

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 57% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Texans are 44-26 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-6 ATS as favorites).

Opening Line: Texans -1.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

Week 14 NFL Pick: 49ers 20, Texans 13
49ers +3 -120 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Under 46 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
49ers 26, Texans 16

Dallas Cowboys (6-6) at New York Giants (2-10)
Line: Cowboys by 3.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -5.5.
Sunday, Dec 10, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

Video of the Week: The Japanese tend to have the most interesting game shows. This one might be the best ever (thanks, Hugo G):

I wish we had something this cool in America. This, unlike real soccer, is actually entertaining!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Ben McAdoo is gone, so the Giants will be going back to Eli Manning in an attempt to smooth things over with him. They need Manning to wave his no-trade clause so they can receive compensation for him in an offseason trade.

This is a nice plan for the future, but the present looks bleak. The Cowboys will have Sean Lee back from injury, which will make their defense so much better. They already had a big edge up front on the right side with DeMarcus Lawrence and David Irving set to go up against two horrible offensive linemen. There’s a chance tackle/guard Justin Pugh could return for this game, but he’s considered questionable, and he may not be 100 percent if he takes the field.

The Cowboys have some serious issues in their secondary, but Manning won’t have the time to consistently expose them. Also, his top weapon, Evan Engram, will have a tougher time against Dallas’ defense than most tight ends have had lately because of Lee’s return. Lee will also help shut down the Giants’ run, though I don’t think New York would be able to run the ball effectively even if Lee were to miss this game.

DALLAS OFFENSE: While Lee returns this week, the Cowboys got back their entire offensive line last Thursday against the Redskins. The group was forceful, opening up big holes for Alfred Morris and giving Dak Prescott enough time to throw the ball. Left tackle Tyron Smith, who had been hobbled while on the field earlier this year, finally looked like he was 100 percent.

The Giants stop the run well because of elite defensive tackle Snacks Harrison, but containing aerial attacks has been a different story. Janoris Jenkins is out for the year, while their linebacking corps is abysmal. Prescott should be able to connect with a reborn Dez Bryant, though Jason Witten could be his top option in this contest. The Giants simply cannot defend tight ends.

RECAP: I made this spread Dallas -5.5, and this line is -4.5. There’s virtually no difference between the two numbers – for those wondering, there’s a 1.42-percent marginal difference – so there really isn’t a great betting opportunity here from a numbers perspective.

But what about motivation? I think there’s a right side based on that, but I can’t figure out what that is. Will the Giants be discombobulated because they fired their head coach? Or will they be especially fired up to win for Eli? I can’t tell. I’m leaning toward the former, as the Giants have been no-shows far too often this year, but I could see them getting up to play their “Super Bowl” against the Cowboys. I don’t know. We’ll see. I’m going to take Dallas for zero units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There is a TON of sharp action on the Giants. Wow. I guess the pros are very confident that New York will show up and play hard. I don’t think that’s a given. I still like the Cowboys, especially with Sean Lee due back.

SATURDAY NOTES: I made a big deal about the Cowboys having their entire offensive line together again. Oops. It looks like La’el Collins will be out, so it’s a good thing that Jason Pierre-Paul barely did anything in practice this week. The Giants could also be without top linebacker B.J. Goodson. And speaking of linebackers, Sean Lee is no longer on the injury report. I’m still on Dallas, but for a non-bet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Giants all week. The public is on the Cowboys. Dallas’ offensive line is intact, but the defense will be missing David Irving. Still, Sean Lee is back, so I think the Cowboys are the right side.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
It’s hard to say how the Giants will react to the Ben McAdoo firing.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

I thought there’d be more money on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 65% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Cowboys are 14-25 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

The underdog is 75-49 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Opening Line: Cowboys -6.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Sunny, 37 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Cowboys 23, Giants 17
Cowboys -3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 30, Giants 10

Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games
NY Jets at Denver, Tennessee at Arizona, Washington at LA Chargers, Seattle at Jacksonville, Philadelphia at LA Rams, Baltimore at Pittsburgh, New England at Miami

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)