NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2017): 5-11 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2017): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2017): 6-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2017): 3-10-2 (-$2,180)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2017): 6-7 (-$1,795)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2017): 7-5-1 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2017): 8-5-1 (+$290)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2017): 3-10-1 (-$1,595)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2017): 9-6-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (2017): 86-102-8 (-$4,480)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.
Vegas betting action updated Dec. 4, 6:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games
Washington Redskins (5-6) at Dallas Cowboys (5-6)
Line: Redskins by 2. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -4.
Thursday, Nov 30, 8:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Redskins.
WEEK 12 RECAP: Week 12 turned out to be a winner – I’m 9-6 (+$420) heading into Monday night – but it could’ve been so much better. I lost four units on the Jets, who should’ve covered, and two more units on the Colts, who blew a 16-6 lead in the second half. Had I gotten those, I’d be 11-4, +$1,680 right now! It’s amazing the difference two games can make.
That said, I’m very happy with Week 12 because I learned a lot. Last week, I wrote about how horrible quarterbacks have had trouble covering the spread because of the new CBA. Bad players can’t improve without much practice, so it makes sense that terrible signal-callers have so much trouble having success.
I posted this graphic…
…but I thought I needed to expand my research. So, while everyone was shopping on Black Friday, I delved into the archives and looked up how every crappy quarterback has fared since 2011, when the new CBA began. I expected that fading them would yield a 55-percent covering rate, or so. The results were much better than I expected. Take a look:
If you bet blindly against these guys, you’d be hitting 64 percent or so of your bets. Isn’t that crazy? A few things:
1. I didn’t eliminate games where crappy quarterbacks played each other (i.e. Tom Savage vs. Blaine Gabbert in Week 11), so this could be even better.
2. The Steelers have struggled against these terrible signal-callers, as they are notorious for being unable (or unwilling) to cover when getting a large percentage of public money. They gave Zach Mettenberger one of his two career spread wins, for example. The same thing happened with Brett Hundley on Sunday night.
3. Look at T.J. Yates. He’s 7-2 against the spread! Maybe some desperate team should give him a shot.
I’ll be posting these NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.
DALLAS OFFENSE: Skip Bayless finally admitted on Thanksgiving that it “may not be the Cowboys’ year.” Wow, thanks, Skip. He said this in response to seeing Zack Martin suffer an injury against the Chargers. It’s definitely true that Dallas has endured some terrible luck with injuries. They finally had Tyron Smith back, and yet they lost Martin to a concussion. That’s when you know the football gods are betting against you.
It’s still unclear if Martin will play, as he’s been limited in practice. He’ll be needed to help right tackle La’el Collins, who has been anemic this year. That’s not a good sign going into this contest, as the Redskins’ top defender happens to be Ryan Kerrigan. The Redskins usually thrive when Kerrigan can dominate, and he should be able to log a couple of sacks in this affair.
Dak Prescott will be under heavy pressure once again if Martin is absent, and we’ve seen him struggle because of that this year. It hasn’t helped that Dez Bryant has been unable to get separation, or that his other receivers have been mostly terrible. Josh Norman figures to give Bryant more trouble, while the running game won’t be much of a factor with Matt Ioannidis on the field. If you recall, Ezekiel Elliott had a huge second half versus the Redskins back in Week 8. This happened in part because Ioannidis got knocked out with an injury during the middle of the game. Ioannidis is the team’s best defensive lineman, and he’ll help stuff Alfred Morris in the backfield.
WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins have offensive line woes themselves, as they were without Trent Williams on Thanksgiving. They were also down to their third-string center. However, Williams hinted that he’ll be able to suit up for this game, so that’s at least a good sign.
Despite the injuries, the Redskins seem set up to be able to block Dallas’ best defensive linemen. DeMarcus Lawrence has been a beast this year, but right tackle Morgan Moses should be able to handle him. Brandon Scherff has a nice matchup versus Tyrone Crawford. David Irving, conversely, will give Washington some problems, but Kirk Cousins should have more time in the pocket against the Cowboys, and that will be a major problem for Dallas if Sean Lee is out again.
It’s not yet known if Lee will play, but that injury will likely decide this game. Lee is the heart, soul and brain of the Cowboys’ defense. Dallas is better in every defensive regard if Lee plays, as the stop unit has looked completely lost without him. If he’s out again, Cousins will shred the Cowboys’ putrid front seven, while Samaje Perine will have success on the ground. Lee’s return would change all of that, however.
RECAP: I’m going to pencil in the Redskins for zero units right now. My pick will depend on the statuses of Zack Martin and Sean Lee – more so the latter. If Lee is out, I may bet Washington for a few units. The Cowboys are absolute garbage without Lee, and the Redskins will cruise to an easy victory if he’s not on the field. However, if Martin and Lee are both able to suit up, I’ll take the Cowboys, and I may even bet them.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sean Lee is out, which is a huge deal. The Cowboys will once again struggle to stop the opposing offense, and I believe the Redskins will be motivated for revenge. I hate all the public action on Washington, but I believe it’s the right side. I’m going to put two units on the Redskins, as I believe they should be four-point favorites in this matchup. Check back later, or follow me at @walterfootball for updates.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Four of the Redskins’ offensive linemen, including Trent Williams, are in the lineup. The Cowboys will have their blockers as well, but as mentioned, Sean Lee is out, which puts Dallas at a big disadvantage. All anyone has been talking about during the pre-game show has been Ezekiel Elliott’s absence, but Lee’s injury is much more important. I’m sticking with two units on the Redskins.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
The Redskins are a public underdog.
The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Redskins 26, Cowboys 23
Redskins -2 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 38, Redskins 14
Detroit Lions (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -1.
Sunday, Dec 3, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: TBA.
My overrated-underrated feature will continue in this spot, and I’m going to emphasize injuries (particularly those on the offensive line)…
Underrated NFL Teams:
Overrated NFL Teams:
DETROIT OFFENSE: I’m typing this as of 10:45 a.m. Tuesday, and there’s no line posted for this game. This is usually the time when the spreads for the teams that played Monday night go up in the sharp books (i.e. Pinnacle, CRIS), and while a line for Tennessee has appeared, that is not the case for this contest. I’m assuming that’s because of Matthew Stafford’s ankle injury.
Stafford hurt his ankle on Thanksgiving amid a comeback. The Lions drew to within four when Stafford got hurt, and they didn’t convert a single first down after that. I think there’s a good chance Detroit would’ve prevailed – or at least lost in overtime – had Stafford remained healthy, but he didn’t look right at all following the injury. Stafford will have extra time to recover, which is nice. However, take a look at this quote from him: “I’ll start to feel better, hopefully, as the week progresses, and we’ll see from there.”
Yikes. There’s a legitimate chance Stafford won’t be close to 100 percent for this contest, and that’s basically a death sentence against Baltimore’s defense. The Ravens had some discipline issues against the Texans, but they’ll dominate if they happen to be more focused. Their pass rush will give Stafford major trouble if he can’t move around. Jimmy Smith will look to rebound from his humiliation Monday night, and I think he’ll be able to slow down Marvin Jones. Meanwhile, the run defense, which has been better with Brandon Williams, won’t have much trouble stuffing Ameer Abdullah in the backfield.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens are atrocious on this side of the ball. All Joe Flacco is doing at this point is dinking and dunking, as no deep shots are working. Mike Wallace can’t catch a cold, while Jeremy Maclin still doesn’t seem to know the offense, somehow. Flacco isn’t blameless either, as his deep ball placement has diminished. The mediocre offensive line isn’t helping matters.
Flacco struggled to move the chains Monday night against a depleted Houston defense, and I imagine he’ll have similar issues, even against a stop unit that couldn’t keep Case Keenum from converting third downs on Thanksgiving. The Lions have some holes in their back seven, particularly across from Darius Slay and in the linebacking corps, but I don’t think Flacco will be able to fully take advantage of those liabilities.
The Ravens are unlikely to have much success running the ball either. Alex Collins is just OK, and I don’t think he’s good enough to take advantage of a Detroit rush defense that happens to be pretty solid, outside of that one strange drive to open the second half against Minnesota.
RECAP: If Stafford plays, I think this line will be Ravens -2.5 or -3. I’d love the Lions if Stafford were completely healthy, but doesn’t look to be the case.
It’s difficult to make a strong judgment on this game right now because there’s no line, and Stafford’s health is unknown. This almost seems like a coin flip at the moment, so I’ll pencil in the Lions for now, but I’ll closely be monitoring Stafford’s status during the week. If reports indicate that he’s moving around well, I’ll likely place a bet on Detroit, depending on what this spread turns out to be. Something else to consider is that the Ravens have to battle the Steelers next week, so there could be a look-ahead factor.
Once again, check back later, or follow me at @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Matthew Stafford is practicing fully, which is good news for the Lions. However, I really want to read what some of the beat writers have to say about his movement in practice on Friday. I’m going to pick the Lions for no units for now, but I may decide to bet them based on what I read.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions are going to be missing their center, while stud guard T.J. Lang is banged up. That’s not a good against Baltimore’s defense. Matthew Stafford, from all accounts, is fine, as he’s practiced fully all week. However, considering that his line is beat up, I can’t get behind a Detroit wager.
FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some late sharp money coming in on the Lions, pushing this spread down to _2.5. It’s still +3 -115 at BetUS, which is the best line I see for Detroit. I’m not betting the Lions, as they’re missing center Travis Swanson, which is a big deal even though he hasn’t been playing well. In fact, I considered switching my pick to the Ravens, but it’s a little too late in the week to do that.
The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
The Ravens just watched the Lions lose on Thanksgiving, so they may not take them seriously, especially with a game against the Steelers coming up.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Lions 20, Ravens 17
Lions +3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 44, Lions 20
San Francisco 49ers (1-10) at Chicago Bears (3-8)
Line: Bears by 2.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bears -4 or -7 (Garoppolo) or Bears -8 or -11 (Beathard). Trevathan pending.
Sunday, Dec 3, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Bears.
VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. Here were last week’s most-bet sides:
The highest-bet sides were 26-25-3 heading into Week 11. The public absolutely destroyed the house once again this past weekend. Four of those five sides cashed, with the Steelers being the lone exception. Vegas has taken an absolute beating this year, as the highest-best sides are now 30-26-3.
Here are the five highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning:
Three road favorites, one high home favorite, and a public underdog. I’d criticize the public for not learning anything, but they’ve been winning recently, so who am I to say anything?
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Kyle Shanahan said he’ll make an announcement regarding his quarterbacking situation Wednesday. C.J. Beathard is banged up, so he may not be ready to play. This isn’t ideal for the 49ers, who wanted to stash Jimmy Garoppolo on the bench to preserve their draft positioning. If Garoppolo has to start down the stretch, San Francisco may have to kiss Saquon Barkley goodbye (I have the 49ers taking him in my 2018 NFL Mock Draft.)
Garoppolo is a much better quarterback than Beathard, so Shanahan’s decision is going to have a big impact on my pick. The same goes for Danny Trevathan. Chicago’s stud linebacker has missed the past three games, and the Bears’ defense has fallen apart as a consequence. I mentioned how important Sean Lee was to the Cowboys earlier on this page. The same applies to Trevathan. Like Lee, Trevathan is the heart, soul and brains of Chicago’s stop unit. Without him, the Bears have blown countless coverages, and a smart quarterback like Garoppolo would be able to take advantage of his absence.
Trevathan also helps in run support, which is vital against Carlos Hyde. The 49ers don’t have much else going for them on this side of the ball. The interior of their offensive line will likely be dominated by Chicago’s stout defensive front. The 49ers have only one productive receiver in Marquise Goodwin, and he’ll be matched up against Prince Amukamara, who has played well this year.
CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears were able to muster just three points against the Eagles, which was hardly a surprise. Philadelphia has one of the top defenses in the NFL. The 49ers, conversely, rank near the bottom of many categories, and they’ll likely have problems against Chicago.
While the Eagles are stout versus the run, the 49ers have been horrible against it. Prior to playing Seattle’s non-existent rushing attack, the 49ers allowed 100-plus yards on the ground to their previous four opponents. This includes the Cardinals, who rumbled for 165 yards on the ground in Week 9, and Reuben Foster played in that game, so San Francisco had its star linebacker on the field. The Bears run the ball well, and I think they’ll be able to establish Jordan Howard against the 49ers.
Howard’s success will help Mitchell Trubisky, as he’ll be able to operate in short-yardage situations. He’ll be able to take advantage of all the liabilities San Francisco has on this side of the ball. The 49ers have horrible linebackers outside of Foster, while their secondary has just a couple of viable players.
RECAP: Sorry for the wishy-washiness with my first few picks, but it’s hard to make selections if I don’t know whether the starting quarterbacks or star linebackers will be playing!
As mentioned, Shanahan said he’ll have a decision on his quarterback Wednesday. I’m going to be looking out for this, because if it’s Beathard, I’m going to bet the Bears -3.5 right away before the spread has a chance to rise. If it’s Garoppolo, I’m going to pencil in the Bears for zero units and wait on Trevathan’s status. To me, someone like Trevathan is worth three or so points because he’s effectively the quarterback of the defense. If Garoppolo starts and Trevathan sits, this will be a zero-unit pick on the 49ers. If Garoppolo and Trevathan both play, I’ll be on Chicago, perhaps for a unit or two.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Danny Trevathan may play, but I want to see for sure before I decide to bet Chicago. With the line now -3 (-115 at Bovada), I definitely like the Bears if Trevathan will be on the field. The sharps have been betting the 49ers, but not yet at +3.
SATURDAY NOTES: The good news for the Bears is that they’re getting Danny Trevathan back. The bad news is that they’re going to be missing their top defensive back, safety Adrian Amos. I’m not sure how much that’ll matter against the 49ers, but it’ll make me limit my wager to one or two units, depending on whether or not the 49ers have Trent Brown available.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the 49ers (not yet at +2.5), as this spread has fallen to -2.5. This looks like a great number for the Bears, especially with Danny Trevathan back from injury. Chicago is missing two starters in the secondary, and the 49ers will have Trent Brown but should be OK. I still like Chicago for a unit at this new number.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
The 49ers are a public dog.
The Trends. Edge: None.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Bears 23, 49ers 17
Bears -2.5 -115 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$115
Over 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 15, Bears 14
Minnesota Vikings (9-2) at Atlanta Falcons (7-4)
Line: Falcons by 2. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Dec 3, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: .
HATE MAIL: Despite my winning week, I still received some hate mail:
These sorts of comments happen when there are idiots out there who don’t understand how key numbers work.
I wasn’t the only one getting hate mail this week. The sharps did as well!
Yes, this guy believes no one bets professionally. Wow. I literally know people who do this, but apparently, according to Gold Quill, they don’t exist.
Conversely, this person is giving the sharps too much credit:
Come on, people, it’s “bettor;” not “better.” Let’s put some grammatical effort into these hate comments.
Here’s someone trying to help me with my business ventures:
OK, I lied. I didn’t buy the domain. But anyone with a keen business sense will do that ASAP.
Here’s another:
There’s a reason I list my record atop the page. If people want to fade me, that’s perfectly fine!
And finally, here are a couple of individuals who don’t understand the definitions of “overrated” and “underrated.”
I love how these two people just proved why the Jaguars/Bills were overrated/underrated with their posts alone. Amazing.
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It’s amazing how much of a transformation the Vikings’ scoring unit has undergone this season. Early in the year, they were a running-based attack with Dalvin Cook, and they looked absolutely lost in the first meeting against the Lions when Cook suffered an injury. Now, they throw the ball up and down the field against the opposition with tons of success. Case Keenum looks like a great quarterback, somehow, and Adam Thielen absolutely cannot be covered. He’s always open. Always.
Based on some injuries on Atlanta’s defense, that should continue to happen. The Falcons lost their top two cornerbacks, Desmond Trufant and Brian Poole, to injuries against the Buccaneers. Tampa was being outscored at one point, 27-6, but Ryan Fitzpatrick was finally able to get going because of the injuries to Trufant and Poole. Those two corners will be charged to cover Stefon Diggs and Thielen, respectively, if they play, so it’s incredibly important that they suit up.
If they’re both out, the Vikings should have a ton of success on this side of the ball. But even if they get the green light, Minnesota will surely be able to move the chains somewhat consistently. The Falcons struggle against tight ends and pass-catching running backs, and the Vikings have Kyle Rudolph and Jerick McKinnon to take advantage of that.
ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan has caught fire recently, but how legitimate is that? He’s been able to take advantage of defenses with some major injury concerns, after all. Last week, it was the Buccaneers, who were missing their top edge rusher (Robert Ayers) and a starting cornerback (Vernon Hargreaves). Before that, it was the Seahawks, who were down two members of the Legion of Boom, plus top cornerback Shaq Griffin, who got hurt on the opening drive. And before that, it was the Cowboys, who saw Sean Lee go down. The Falcons were doing nothing offensively prior to the Lee injury, but couldn’t be stopped afterward.
The Vikings are at full strength on this side of the ball, and I think they’ll be able to slow down the Falcons. They have two big advantages up front, with the dominant Everson Griffen going up against mediocre tackle Jake Matthews, and Pro Bowl defensive tackle Linval Joseph battling inept guard Wes Schweitzer. This will create some pressure for Ryan in the pocket, who might panic into some bad throws into a fierce secondary.
Meanwhile, the Falcons shouldn’t have much success running the ball. The Vikings haven’t allowed 100 yards on the ground all year, and the last time they surrendered more than 71 rushing yards was back in Week 8, when the Browns had a long gain on the ground in garbage time.
RECAP: I like the Vikings for a few reasons. The simplest one is that they’re the better team. The Falcons, as mentioned, have been able to take advantage of teams with major injury problems. The Vikings don’t have those. Atlanta’s recent winning streak seems like a mirage to me, while Minnesota has been dominant for most of the year.
Something related is a major coaching advantage. Mike Zimmer is a defensive mastermind, and he has to battle Steve Sarkisian, who seems incapable of making any sort of positive second-half adjustments. Zimmer should be able to coach circles around the incompetent Sarkisian.
Another thing to consider is that the Falcons have to battle the Saints on Thursday night. This game is important, but they have an even more vital one in four days against their arch rival. I think there’s definitely look-ahead potential. Conversely, the Vikings have had extra time to prepare for this contest. Excluding his rookie year as a coach, Zimmer is 6-2 against the spread with extra time to prepare for a game.
I’m going to bet the Vikings for a couple of units, and I think I may add a third unit to this game if Trufant and Poole are both out.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Desmond Trufant has yet to practice, which is terrible news for the Falcons, as they won’t be able to cover Stefon Diggs. I still like the Vikings for two units.
SATURDAY NOTES: It seems like Brian Poole has a chance to play, but Desmond Trufant has been ruled out. The Vikings are the better team, and Atlanta will be down one of its best players, so I’m sticking with my two-unit wager on Minnesota.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Contrary to what I wrote Saturday, Brian Poole is not playing. Both he and Desmond Trufant are both out. The Falcons have just three active corners against a great receiving corps! This spread has dropped to +2, but given Atlanta’s cornerback situation, and the fact that they could be looking ahead to Thursday night, I still like the Vikings for two units.
The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.
The Falcons have to play in four days against the Saints.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Vikings 23, Falcons 20
Vikings +2 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Vikings 14, Falcons 9
New England Patriots (9-2) at Buffalo Bills (6-5)
Line: Patriots by 9. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -10.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -7.5.
Sunday, Dec 3, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.
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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The last time the Bills had a big game at home, the Saints walked into Orchard Park and absolutely demolished them, winning 47-10. New Orleans ran all over Buffalo, and Drew Brees completed all the passes he needed to in order to consistently move the chains. The Saints tallied nearly 500 net yards of offense, as they were completely unstoppable.
I don’t see why things would suddenly be different in this matchup, considering that the Patriots and Saints are very close in overall team strength. The Bills, who have struggled to stop the run for the most part ever since the nonsensical Marcell Dareus trade, will fail to contain Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead, thanks in part to their attention being on Tom Brady.
And can you blame them? Brady is performing at a very high level right now, and he’ll easily exploit the weaknesses in Buffalo’s defense. The Bills have an excellent secondary, but their linebackers have been horrible. Brady will expose them by getting the ball to Rob Gronkowski and his pass-catching running backs.
BUFFALO OFFENSE: Bill Belichick excels at taking away the best aspect of an opposing offense. So, what happens when a team has just one strong aspect offensively? For the Bills, that’s obviously LeSean McCoy. I imagine Belichick will have a masterful game plan for eliminating McCoy, so the Bills will have to do something else to move the chains consistently.
That is going to be a problem. Tyrod Taylor is a solid quarterback – yes, Sean McDermott, much better than Nathan J. Peterman – but he just doesn’t have potent offensive weapons at his disposal. Does anyone really think the Bills are going to have success with Taylor converting passes to Zay Jones and Jordan Matthews, who have to battle Malcolm Butler and the much-improved Stephon Gilmore?
The one thing going for the Bills on this side of the ball is that the Patriots could be without Trey Flowers, who suffered an injury against Miami. Flowers is New England’s top pass-rusher, and he would’ve had an easy matchup against pedestrian right tackle Jordan Mills. Taylor will have more time as a result of Flowers’ absence, but I’m not sure how much that will matter.
RECAP: Some say that this line is too high. I disagree. I think this line is about where it should be. I made the Patriots -7.5, and it’s sitting at -8.5. Eight is a dead number, so it’s effectively the same number.
With that in mind, I’m just going to pick the Patriots. Going against Brady is stupid, as he never finishes a year with a losing spread record. The smart thing has been to just pick him every single game throughout his career, as those who have done that have profitted greatly; Brady is 159-111 against the spread.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No update here. I’m still on the Patriots, but this line is too high to wager on.
SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams are missing a tackle, though Cordy Glenn’s absence for Buffalo means more. I would still take the Patriots if I had to, but this is a stay-away game for sure, as betting against Brady isn’t the smartest strategy.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharp books want money on the Patriots. Both Pinnacle and CRIS have this line at -7.5, while the square books have a spread of -9. Regardless, I still like New England with Buffalo missing Cordy Glenn.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
The public is on the Patriots, the sharps are on Buffalo.
The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Bills 21
Patriots -9 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 23, Bills 3
Denver Broncos (3-8) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)
Line: Broncos by 1.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -1 (Siemian & Moore) or Broncos -3 (Siemain & Cutler) or Dolphins -5 (Lynch & Moore) or Dolphins -3 (Lynch & Cutler).
Sunday, Dec 3, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.
I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.
Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:
For my NFL notes this week, I thought I would fill out a Pro Bowl ballot and list my reasoning.
Quarterbacks: Tom Savage, Brett Hundley, Nathan J. Peterman, Scott Tolzien, Andrew Luck, Bobby Hoying.
Just kidding. As much as I’d like to troll the NFL, I’ll be serious here.
Quarterbacks: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Jared Goff, Cam Newton, Carson Wentz, Russell Wilson.
I think most of these are self-explanatory. The one question mark might be Newton because his passing stats aren’t very good. However, Newton has done a great job of carrying the Panthers ever since he’s gotten healthy. Carolina even traded away Newton’s top receiver, and yet the Panthers are 8-3.
Running Backs: Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Todd Gurley, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, LeSean McCoy.
Ezekiel Elliott would have made the cut if it wasn’t for his suspension hurting his team.
Wide Receivers: Antonio Brown, Brandin Cooks, Larry Fitzgerald, A.J. Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, Michael Thomas, Robert Woods.
Brandin Cooks, A.J. Green and Michael Thomas haven’t been great fantasy players this year (for the most part), but they’ve played much better than their stats indicate. Fitzgerald, meanwhile, was my eighth choice right after Woods. I didn’t have seven strong options at this position. I chose Fitzgerald just for the memories. Not that I’d watch the Pro Bowl though.
Fullbacks: James Develin, Patrick DiMarco.
Develin does about a bit of everything for the Patriots, and he does it very well. The Bills, meanwhile, spent a lot of money on DiMarco, and it has certainly been worth it, as he’s been a big part of McCoy’s success.
Tight Ends: Zach Ertz, Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce.
Ertz, Gronkowski and Kelce are the three obvious choices. The fourth tight end was between Graham and Evan Engram, but I opted to go with the veteran.
Offensive Tackles: David Bakhtiari, Anthony Castonzo, Demar Dotson, Lane Johnson, Andrew Whitworth, Trent Williams.
Bakhtiari and Castonzo have been stout left tackles this season. The former missed some action earlier in the year, but he’s been outstanding since his return. Dotson and Johnson are two of the best right tackle in the pros. Whitworth has been a huge part of Jared Goff’s success this season. And finally, Williams has been banged up this year, but has played well when available.
Guard: Brandon Brooks, David DeCastro, Ronald Leary, Zack Martin, Kelechi Osemele, Brandon Scherff.
At least two Eagle linemen need to make the Pro Bowl, and Brooks has been outstanding. DeCastro has been even better. The Cowboys have really missed Leary, while they felt the absence of their top blocker, Martin, during an embarrassing Thanksgiving loss. Osemele isn’t playing as well this year compared to 2016, but he’s still one of the most talented guards in the NFL. Scherff has been great when healthy.
Center: David Andrews, Travis Frederick, Jason Kelce, Alex Mack.
Andrews has made great strides this year, so he should be rewarded for it. The same goes for Kelce. Conversely, Frederick and Mack have been two of the top centers in the NFL for several years now, and they haven’t regressed.
Defensive End: Joey Bosa, Calais Campbell, Brandon Graham, Everson Griffen, Cameron Jordan, DeMarcus Lawrence.
This position is stacked this year! All of these guys are awesome, so it’s probably better to discuss those who barely missed the cut. Melvin Ingram is part of that group, which is absurd because he’s been so dominant this year. The same goes for Cameron Heyward and Yannick Ngakoue. All three easily could’ve been voted in. I also considered Adrian Clayborn for a second, but most of his production came in one game.
Defensive Tackle: Geno Atkins, DeForest Buckner, Fletcher Cox, Aaron Donald, Gerald McCoy, Kawann Short.
This is another group that is extremely packed with talent. Numerous terrific players were left out as well. Most notably, Linval Joseph and Mike Daniels have been dominant for their teams. Ndamukong Suh could have made the cut as well, and the same goes for Michael Brockers, Snacks Harrison and Jurrell Casey.
Inside Linebacker: Luke Kuechly, Ryan Shazier, Bobby Wagner, Wesley Woodyard.
No explanation needed for Kuechly or Wagner, who are two of the best linebackers in the NFL. Shazier has finally lived up to his first-round billing. He’s been solid in the past, but he’s never played at this dominant level. Woodyard, meanwhile, is the captain of Tennessee’s defense and should be rewarded for having a strong 2017 campaign.
Outside Linebacker: Jadeveon Clowney, Lavonte David, Ryan Kerrigan, Sean Lee, Von Miller, Telvin Smith.
Clowney has been dominant this year despite the absence of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus. Kerrigan and Miller are other great edge rushers in this group. The non-pass-rushers are David, Lee and Smith. David has been outstanding for a long time, and the same could be said for Lee, whose absence has been huge for Dallas recently. Smith, meanwhile, has been instrumental in the dominance of Jacksonville’s defense.
Cornerback: Chris Harris, Casey Hayward, Marshon Lattimore, Rashaan Melvin, Jalen Ramsey, Xavier Rhodes, Darius Slay, Desmond Trufant.
One late change was that I removed Aqib Talib for his dumb fight and put in Harris instead. Hayward has been a shutdown corner this season. Lattimore has been absolutely prolific as a rookie. Melvin was another change. He’s been great for the Colts, and he deserves this spot after Jimmy Smith was embarrassed against the Texans on a Monday night. Ramsey is probably the best corner in the NFL. Rhodes and Slay are two dominant corners in the NFC North. Smith and Trufant are coming into their own as young, dominant corners. Talib, meanwhile, has been steady as Denver’s top corner even though the Broncos have been weaker against deep passes this season.
Strong Safety: Kam Chancellor, Landon Collins.
Chancellor may not be able to play because of injury, but he still should be voted in for being so tremendous in the first half of the year. Collins is going to be a perennial Pro Bowler for a long time.
Free Safety: Harrison Smith, Earl Thomas.
Smith is the best safety in football. The Seahawks looked lost without Thomas for two games – and then Chancellor got hurt!
Kicker: Harrison Butker, Justin Tucker.
Tucker is the top kicker in football most years, but Butker has missed just once all season. He’s been a huge find for the Chiefs.
Return Specialist: Jamal Agnew, Tyler Lockett.
Agnew has scored twice on returns, while Lockett almost nearly broke for a few kickoff return touchdowns versus Atlanta on a recent Monday night.
Punter: Sam Koch, Kevin Huber.
From betting against the Ravens and Bengals, I can tell you it’s frustrating when their punters completely flip the field.
Special Teamer: Anthony Levine, Cory Littleton.
The Ravens and Rams have the best special-teams units in the NFL, so I thought I’d vote these guys in.
DENVER OFFENSE: I’m upset. In fact, I cried in unison with Paxton Lynch when the second-year quarterback suffered an ankle injury, for I knew that our opportunities to fade him were over. Surely enough, Lynch is out 2-4 weeks, so Trevor Siemian is back at the helm for the Broncos.
Siemian is the best quarterback on the team, and I don’t think it’s close. He’s not good, and he makes some mistakes, but Lynch (until he’s developed) and Brock Osweiler are downright incompetent. Unless Lynch lives up to his potential, neither he nor Osweiler should be in the NFL. Siemian, on the other hand, seems like he can be a very solid backup for the next 10 or so years, as he seems to be on the level of Ryan Fitzpatrick or Josh McCown.
Siemian won’t be very consistent in this game, as his offensive line has a horrible matchup against Cameron Wake, but the Broncos will be able to move the chains enough; Miami’s secondary and linebacking corps are very abysmal. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders couldn’t do anything with Lynch last week, but they’ll be much better now that a viable quarterback is at the helm once again.
MIAMI OFFENSE: Speaking of viable quarterbacks, Jay Cutler certainly is not one. It’s unclear if he’ll start, however, as he’s still in concussion protocol. What is certain is that if he does get cleared, he’ll make lots of mistakes against Denver’s defense. That’s been the Cutler way all of these years, and especially this season because he retired and didn’t stay in great shape while he was preparing to be part of FOX’s broadcasting team.
To be fair, it hasn’t all been Cutler’s fault. The offensive line has been a train wreck. Right tackle Ja’Wuan James, the team’s best blocker, is out, while center Mike Pouncey desperately needs hip surgery. The guards, meanwhile, are among the worst starters at their positions in the NFL. Von Miller, Derek Wolfe and Adam Gotsis will make sure to take advantage of these liabilities.
While the Broncos still have a great front, they have a couple of liabilities on defense. They’re weak to deep passes, and they can’t stop tight ends. Aqib Talib will be out, but I don’t think that’ll matter too much. DeVante Parker has quit on his team, and the Dolphins don’t have enough protection to get the ball downfield anyway. Meanwhile, Julius Thomas isn’t good enough to expose Denver’s weakness against tight ends.
RECAP: I like the Broncos to cover this game, and I’m going to bet three units on them if Cutler plays.
These teams have similar records, but I don’t think there’s any doubt that Denver is much better. The Broncos and Dolphins started with solid records to open the year, but they’ve fallen apart for different reasons. Denver ran into a gauntlet of difficult opponents – Chiefs, Eagles, Patriots in three consecutive games – while Miami simply regressed to the mean. The Dolphins had some fluky victories early in the year, beating the Titans because Marcus Mariota was out, the Chargers because of a missed chip-shot field goal, and the Falcons because Atlanta fell asleep while nursing a 17-0 lead. Their recent results are more indicative of who they truly are.
The Broncos should be better with Siemian, and I think they should be favored by a field goal if Cutler starts for the Dophins. Cutler sucks, so I’m looking forward to betting against him. If it’s Matt Moore, I won’t be as excited, and this unit count will be lower.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some bad news on the Broncos, as Trevor Siemian and some of his teammates have some sort of flu bug. I’ll continue to monitor this, but I’m considering dropping the unit count on this game down to one. We’ll see what happens, as I’ll continue to monitor the situation. The last team hit with the flu was the Buccaneers, who were demolished by the Vikings in Week 3. Then again, Minnesota is obviously much better than Miami.
SATURDAY NOTES: The concern I had for the Broncos was the flu going around the locker room, but now it’s Ronald Leary’s absence. Leary is Denver’s best offensive lineman, and he has been ruled out against a Miami front that features Ndamukong Suh. Derek Wolfe is out as well, but that’s obviously less of a factor. Still, Leary being out is enough for me to limit my wager to one unit.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Greek Sportsbook is reporting sharp money on the Broncos, which is not a surprise, given that betting against Jay Cutler has been a huge money-maker over the years.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Broncos 20, Dolphins 16
Broncos -1.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 35, Broncos 9
Houston Texans (4-7) at Tennessee Titans (7-4)
Line: Titans by 7. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -9.5.
Sunday, Dec 3, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Titans.
As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.
Random College Football Notes:
1. The big news in college football, aside from the college football playoff being set heading into the championship games, is that Chip Kelly is back. UCLA has brought him in to be the new head coach. If you missed it, I posted a grade in the new College Football Coach Hire and Fire Grades page. I also have a grade for Florida hiring Dan Mullen.
One thing I’d like to add to that write-up would be my condolences. Yes, I’d like to give my condolences to the UCLA players who were a fan of Taco Tuesday. Those days are over, guys. And I’m so terribly sorry for that.
Kelly is a great college coach, but I think he would be even better if he allowed Taco Tuesday to remain. He demoralized the Eagles for abolishing Taco Tuesday, and if I were a UCLA player, I would consider transferring. Then again, I’m not a college football player, but rather a fat man who loves tacos, so perhaps I have a different perspective on this matter.
2. As for the college football playoffs, the announcement will be made tonight, but here’s what I’m going with:
1. Georgia/Auburn winnerNothing exciting. However, I have some thoughts on what I think will happen:
2. Clemson/Miami winner
3. Oklahoma
4. Wisconsin
– I’d have to think that the SEC winner will get the No. 1 seed, no matter who it is.
– The ACC winner should be in no matter what.
– If Oklahoma or Wisconsin loses in their conference championships, Alabama would enter the playoff. If both Oklahoma and Wisconsin lose, I’d have Alabama and Ohio State as the third and fourth seeds.
3. Let’s touch on the Tennessee situation. If you somehow haven’t heard, the Vols were set to hire former Rutgers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Greg Schiano, but rescinded the offer because of an outcry on social media and on campus. It was so bad that there was a smear campaign, with signs and posters saying that Schiano helped cover up Jerry Sandusky’s actions at Penn State.
Anyone with any knowledge of the situation seems to say that all of the Penn State stuff regarding Schiano is bogus. I don’t know if anyone knows for sure, but that’s exactly the point. No one knows, so how can he be villainized for it? That seems horrible. These dirt bags ruined Schiano’s reputation just because they didn’t think he was a good hire, which is just unbelievable.
If I were in charge of things at Tennessee, I would hire Schiano and expel any students who made these signs. There’s no place in society for nonsense like that, and these scumbags need to be taught a lesson. Unfortunately, the people in charge at Tennessee are cowards for succumbing to social-media pressure.
I don’t understand why there was such an issue with Schiano anyway? He failed in the pros, but he was outstanding at Rutgers. That school had no semblance of a football program before he got there, and he made them very relevant. Now, they’re garbage again because he left. If he could do solid things at Rutgers, he would’ve had more success at an SEC school.
As a result of this, Tennessee is the laughing stock of college football. They’re effectively the Browns of the NCAA. Cleveland embarrassed itself by bungling the A.J. McCarron deal a month ago, and now Tennessee humiliated itself in similar fashion.
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans looked close to suffering two major injuries last week. Both Delanie Walker and Taylor Lewan had to be helped off the field against the Colts, but both managed to return. Still, it was surprising that Tennessee had so much trouble with the Colts, trailing 16-6 at the end of the third quarter before Marlon Mack fumbled to set up an easy touchdown.
Part of the problem was that Marcus Mariota was missing his favorite wide receiver. Rishard Matthews was a late scratch because he got hurt in practice. Matthews should be back this week, and he, Corey Davis and Walker should be able to take advantage of a Houston defense that has been decimated by injuries and free-agency departures. The Texans have struggled to stop the pass for the most part as a result. They had more success this past Monday night, but only because Joe Flacco and his receivers were so incompetent. Mariota will be much better.
The Texans still do two things well on this side of the ball. They stop the run effectively, thanks to D.J. Reader, and they also apply heavy pressure on the quarterback from the blind side with Jadeveon Clowney. The Titans won’t have as much success pounding the rock as they usually do, but they at least have Lewan to help contain Clowney.
HOUSTON OFFENSE: It was a borderline miracle that Tom Savage was limited to just one turnover prior to the final two drives Monday night. He actually had a decent amount of success moving the chains, as the undisciplined Ravens had no answer for DeAndre Hopkins. Cornerback Jimmy Smith had been outstanding all year, yet Hopkins humiliated him.
Hopkins might do the same thing to Logan Ryan, who has also been very solid throughout this season. However, it may not matter if Savage continues to be responsible for lots of give-aways. Savage is very sloppy with the football, and it doesn’t help that his offensive line is a train wreck. The Titans should be able to capitalize on this, as Jurrell Casey, Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan all have outstanding matchups in their favor.
The Titans will pressure Savage heavily and disrupt anything the Texans try to do on the ground. Tennessee hasn’t surrendering 100-plus yards to running backs since Week 4, and I don’t think that’s going to change after this Sunday.
RECAP: The Titans are touchdown favorites in this matchup, but don’t expect them to show up flat. The Texans embarrassed them in the first meeting, 57-14, so this is a huge revenge game for them.
I actually like Tennessee quite a bit here. I made the line Titans -9.5, so we’re getting nearly three points of value. Plus, Savage sucks. Savage is 1-4 against the spread in his career, with his sole spread victory coming against Blaine Gabbert. If the Titans are focused like I think they will be, I think they will tear through him like tissue paper.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Rishard Matthews probably won’t play, but I still really like the Titans. The best line right now is -7 +110 at 5Dimes, but perhaps this will fall to -6.5.
SATURDAY NOTES: Rishard Matthews returned to practice. He still might sit out, but it’s at least a good sign. Either way, I’m on the Titans for three units.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Rishard Matthews is out, which is unfortuante, but it won’t be enough to keep me off the Titans. I still like them a lot in this game. There has been no sharp action either way.
The Psychology. Edge: Titans.
The Texans beat the Titans earlier this season, 57-14, so this is a big-time revenge game for Tennessee.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Texans.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Titans 24, Texans 13
Titans -7 (3 Units) — Correct; $300
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 24, Texans 13
Indianapolis Colts (3-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4)
Line: Jaguars by 10. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jaguars -3.5.
Sunday, Dec 3, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started six years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.
I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady and Walter White. I’ll have new answers to Spam Mails here, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers!
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars have been listed as one of my overrated teams for most of the season because of Blake Bortles and the offensive line. Bortles, as we were able to confirm this past Sunday, sucks. He has great talent, but doesn’t put any effort into film study or mental preparation. He never really knows what he’s doing, so he has to resort to checkdowns most of the time. Once he starts doing something different, he gives the ball away.
Bortles isn’t helped by his poor blocking. The Jaguars were missing two starting linemen against the Cardinals – guard Patrick Omameh, right tackle Jermey Parnell – and it ended up costing them. They’ll need to return against the Colts, who, contrary to popular opinion, have some solid players on this side of the ball. Most of them are close to the line of scrimmage, and that includes Jabaal Shead and John Simon, two solid edge rushers. They seemingly have positive matchups against Jacksonville’s tackles, including rookie Cam Robinson, who has been anemic this year.
Meanwhile, it seems as though Leonard Fournette has hit a bit of a rookie wall. That could continue, as Johnathan Hankins has literally been a wall for opposing ground attacks. The Colts stop the run well, so I wouldn’t expect much out of Fournette.
INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts don’t have the best blocking either, but they’ve at least made some adjustments recently to help matters. Right tackle Denzelle Good fully returned from injury last week, so they started him at right tackle and moved Joe Haeg to right guard. Haeg had been doing a decent job at right tackle, but he’s more suited to be inside. Both played fairly well, so the Colts now only have one true liability up front at left guard. The rest of the line is fine.
The Colts struggled to block the Jaguars the last time they played them, and Jacoby Brissett took 10 sacks as a consequence. That number won’t be as high in the rematch, thanks to the improvements Indianapolis has made up front.
That said, I don’t expect the Colts to open up big running lanes against Jacksonville. The Jaguars still stop the run extremely well, and the Colts don’t have a great ground attack to begin with. I would love Indinapolis to get Marlon Mack more involved, but his fumble ended up ruining a potential victory.
RECAP: Jacksonville embarrassed the Colts back in Week 7, 27-0. Things will be much different this time, as the Colts will be out for revenge. I can’t imagine the Jaguars being very focused; they already clobbered this team, and they have the Seahawks coming up, so they could be looking ahead to that contest.
Besides this spread is WAY too high. I actually made it Jacksonville -3.5. As you can tell, I have very little respect for the Jaguars, as they’ve never been higher than 16th in my NFL Power Rankings. Bortles sucks and should never be favored by more than a touchdown unless he’s playing the Browns. Speaking of the Browns, Jacksonville was up just 10-7 against Cleveland in the fourth quarter, by the way, before the Browns self-destructed, as they are wont to do. The Colts aren’t good, but they’re much better than Cleveland, and I expect them to keep this game close.
In fact, this spread is so outrageous that it’s my top pick of the week. We’re getting six points of value, going through two big key numbers (6, 7) and a minor one (4). I only give the Jaguars about a 35 percent chance of covering here, so Indianapolis is a five-unit wager.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Colts are no longer a public dog, which is nice. Indianapolis remains my top pick of the week, as this spread is way too high.
SATURDAY NOTES: Colts +10 -115 is available at Bovada, which seems great, considering that the sharps have bet this down to +9. In fact, I’ll lock it in. The Jaguars are favored by way too many points, especially when considering that Telvin Smith has been ruled out. Smith is one of the top linebackers in the NFL, so his absence will help Indianapolis move the chains and stay within the number.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jaguars are missing their top linebacker, Telvin Smith, and guard Patrick Omameh, which are two significant injuries. The Jaguars are +9.5 in most books, but they’re listed as +10 -105 at Bovada. There was a hint of sharp money on the Colts earlier in the week, but not very much.
The Psychology. Edge: Colts.
The Colts were embarrassed when they played Jacksonville the first time. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have the Seahawks coming up.
The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
Slight lean on the Jaguars.
The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Jaguars 20, Colts 17
Colts +10 -115 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$575
Under 41 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Jaguars 30, Colts 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7) at Green Bay Packers (5-6)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Buccaneers -1.
Sunday, Dec 3, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: TBA.
Video of the Week: This is a 4-second video, but it’s a good one (thanks, Duke R):
I’m going out on a limb here, but I think Duke wants the ball!
TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: There’s no spread on this game right now because Jameis Winston is considered questionable. Winston is going to through in Wednesday’s practice, so there’s no telling yet how effective he’ll be if he returns to the lineup. I suppose we’ll find out soon enough.
Still, I have to wonder what sort of point-spread difference there happens to be between Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick against the Packers. You’d that that Winston (if healthy) and Fitzpatrick would be able to rip through Green Bay’s horrible secondary with ease. The Packers have some anemic cornerbacks, so they don’t really stand a chance of covering Mike Evans or DeSean Jackson.
To slow down the Buccaneers, the Packers will have to take advantage of some of the mismatches they have up front. Mike Daniels should be able to dominate – and hopefully not get too excited – while Nick Perry has an easy matchup on the edge versus Donovan Smith. Still, it may not be enough because of how horrible the Packer secondary happens to be.
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Brett Hundley has been incredibly inconsistent thus far. He thrived against the Danny Trevathan-less Bears, and he kept up with Ben Roethlisberger in a shootout this past Sunday night, though there were definitely some shady things bound to happen in this game. Conversely, Hundley has been a turnover machine in his other three starts, all of which have occurred at home.
Hundley’s outlook probably depends on whether or not some of Tampa’s key defensive players suit up. Robert Ayers, the top edge rusher, and Vernon Hargreaves, the team’s best cornerback, were both out against the Falcons. Ayers doesn’t have a good matchup this week against stud left tackle David Bakhtiari, but Hargreaves will be needed to slow down the Green Bay aerial attack if Hundley is not throwing countless interceptions.
Either way, the Buccaneers should do a decent job against Jamaal Williams if Ayers is on the field. Prior to last week’s loss, which Ayers missed, they surrendered 82 rushing yards or fewer to three of four opponents, and it’s not like the Packers have an overwhelming ground attack.
RECAP: I obviously can’t give any sort of concrete pick yet because there’s no line posted, and we have no idea if Winston will play.
I imagine I’ll be on the Buccaneers, and I could see myself betting a couple of units on them. I don’t think Hundley will be able to put together two consecutive strong performances, especially with some pressure on his shoulders to win with Aaron Rodgers due back by Week 15. Hopefully we get a good number with Tampa, like +3, which would be awesome.
Once again, check back later, or follow me at @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looks like Jameis Winston will play, but as with Matthew Stafford, I want to read about how Winston looks in practice. If I like what I see, this could be a multi-unit wager on the Buccaneers even though they’re missing two of their best offensive linemen. Brett Hundley being favored is absolutely absurd.
SATURDAY NOTES: It’s insane how much money is on the Packers. Did Brett Hundley become the second coming of Aaron Rodgers because he covered the spread against the Steelers? Unreal. I know the Buccaneers are missing their two best offensive linemen, their top edge rusher and a starting cornerback. But to have the Packers favored, with all of this money coming in on them, is just ridiculous. I’m on the Buccaneers for three units, as I haven’t read anything negative about Jameis Winston’s practices this week.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t believe this spread has risen to +3. It’s even +3 +100 at Bovada! There’s an obscene amount of public money on the Packers, which, again, I don’t understand. Brett Hundley is not the second coming of Brett Favre, or Aaron Rodgers, or Brett Rodgers, or Aaron Favre. With a key number available, I’m bumping this up to four units.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
I never thought I’d see the day that everyone would be betting on Brett Hundley.
The Trends. Edge: Packers.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 20, Packers 17
Buccaneers +3 +100 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$400
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 26, Buccaneers 20
Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at New York Jets (4-7)
Line: Chiefs by 4. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jets -1.
Sunday, Dec 3, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.
Last year, on the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, Tom Brady was elected as the President of the United States, as it was revealed that he was the only candidate running because both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were figments of his imagination. In doing so, Tom Brady saved his organization, the Two-Handed Gang, from the Latin Kings. Everything was going swimmingly for Brady while in the White House, until he received a telegram from Bill Belichick, requiring his presence in Foxboro…
To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: What in the world happened to the Chiefs’ offense!? No, I don’t mean lately. I mean early in the season when they were scoring tons of points. That was more illogical than what has transpired recently. I mean, what makes more sense, Kansas City losing to Buffalo at home, or beating the Eagles by a touchdown? The latter is way more nonsensical to me.
Alex Smith has reverted back to pre-2017 form. He has stopped being aggressive, instead settling for ineffective checkdowns. Then again, to be fair, he doesn’t have a very good offensive line, and he has only one pure downfield threat. I don’t see how things will improve this week; Tyreek Hill has a tough matchup against Morris Claiborne, while the offensive line will have its hands full with Muhammad Wilkerson and Leonard Williams.
As for the Chiefs’ other play-makers, I expect Travis Kelce to have a terrific performance against some shaky New York linebackers. Kareem Hunt, on the other hand, will find it difficult to get any running room. The Jets happen to be quite solid against the run, and I expect them to win in the trenches on this side of the ball.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Chiefs were able to win with a pedestrian scoring unit in the past because their defense was so dominant. That is no longer the case. They really miss Eric Berry, as their secondary, outside of Marcus Peters, has been atrocious without him. Derrick Johnson is slowing down, while Tamba Hali is doing nothing. The Chiefs still have some excellent defenders in Peters, Justin Houston and Chris Jones, but that’s it.
Because Peters doesn’t shadow, he won’t be able to clamp down on the red-hot Robby Anderson, who figures to score a touchdown in his sixth-consecutive game. The Chiefs signed Darrelle Revis, but there’s no telling how effective he’ll be following his time off. If he’s not back to 80 percent of his former self, Anderson will take full advantage of Kansas City’s horrible defensive backfield.
The Chiefs have at least defended tight ends well this season, so they could clamp down on Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Not that Seferian-Jenkins stood a chance of scoring a touchdown anyway, given the ridiculous calls that have gone against him this year.
RECAP: The Chiefs have come back down to Earth, but the spreads for them have not. Like last week, they’re favored by too many points. I made this New York -1, so the fact that this is across the key number of three – not to mention the wrong team being favored – gives us some tremendous value with the Jets.
I love the Jets in this game. They’ve battled teams close at home all year. They beat the Bills and Jaguars, and nearly took down the Patriots. They outplayed the Panthers last week, outgaining them by 100 yards, but a couple of fluky plays and a horrendous call did them in. Perhaps they’ll have better luck against Kansas City.
The Chiefs, by the way, have to battle the Raiders and Chargers for the division after this game. Perhaps they’ll take the 4-7 Jets lightly. I’m not sure we’ll see them at their best in this game.
I’m on the Jets for four units. I wish I could’ve gotten the +4 that was briefly available, but +3.5 is still a great number.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have bet the Jets down to +3 in most books, though +3.5 -120 is still available at Bovada. Hopefully we’ll get a better number by Sunday.
SATURDAY NOTES: This was a game I should’ve locked in earlier. All the +4s and +3.5s are long gone. The Jets are now +3 because of sharp action on them, so there’s not as much value. I’m dropping this to three units.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Jets earlier in the week, but they took Kansas City at -3 and -3.5 to get this spread back up to four. The best line for the Jets right now is +4 -105 at Bovada.
The Psychology. Edge: Jets.
The Chiefs have to battle for the division against the Raiders and Chargers after this game.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
The Trends. Edge: Jets.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Chiefs 16
Jets +4 -105 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 44 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Jets 38, Chiefs 31
Week 13 NFL Picks – Late Games
Cleveland at LA Chargers, Carolina at New Orleans, LA Rams at Arizona, NY Giants at Oakland, Philadelphia at Seattle, Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16
NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22
Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19
NFL Picks - Feb. 12
SUB MENU
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 3-1 (+$460)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 1-1 (-$40)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2023): 7-9 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2023): -$15
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-4, 20.0% (-$2,480)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-135-7, 50.4% (-$7,735)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-38-3, 53.1% (+$520)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 28-27-1, 50.9% (-$3,110)
2023 Season Over-Under: 139-128-3, 52.1% (+$100)
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,630
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 3-1 (+$460)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 1-1 (-$40)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2023): 7-9 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2023): -$15
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-4, 20.0% (-$2,480)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-135-7, 50.4% (-$7,735)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-38-3, 53.1% (+$520)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 28-27-1, 50.9% (-$3,110)
2023 Season Over-Under: 139-128-3, 52.1% (+$100)
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,630
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
| Cowboys: 8-9 |
Bears: 11-4 |
Bucs: 6-11 |
49ers: 10-7 |
| Eagles: 7-7 |
Lions: 9-8 |
Falcons: 8-9 |
Cardinals: 8-9 |
| Giants: 7-9 |
Packers: 5-12 |
Panthers: 8-9 |
Rams: 8-9 |
| Redskins: 14-3 |
Vikings: 6-9 |
Saints: 10-7 |
Seahawks: 7-9 |
| |
|
||
| Bills: 9-7 |
Bengals: 12-5 |
Colts: 7-10 |
Broncos: 9-6 |
| Dolphins: 6-11 |
Browns: 11-5 |
Jaguars: 13-4 |
Chargers: 8-9 |
| Jets: 8-9 |
Ravens: 11-6 |
Texans: 5-12 |
Chiefs: 5-10 |
| Patriots: 7-9 |
Steelers: 11-6 |
Titans: 9-8 |
Raiders: 6-9 |
| |
|
||
| Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526) |
2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361) |
2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405) |
2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168) |
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406) |
2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279) |
Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172) |
Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36) |
2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2012 Season:
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Super Bowl XLVII NFL Pick
2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2013 Season:
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