NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2017): 5-11 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2017): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2017): 6-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2017): 3-10-2 (-$2,180)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2017): 6-7 (-$1,795)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2017): 7-5-1 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2017): 8-5-1 (+$290)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2017): 3-10-1 (-$1,595)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2017): 9-6-1 (+$420)

NFL Picks (2017): 86-102-8 (-$4,480)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 4, 6:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games

Cleveland Browns (0-11) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-6)
Line: Chargers by 14. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -10.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -16.5.
Sunday, Dec 3, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: DeShone Kizer certainly has some physical talent, but he’s not ready to be a starting quarterback right now. He’s responsible for too many turnovers, and he holds on to the ball way too long, as it takes him too long to process information. This wasn’t good when Joe Thomas was shielding his blind side, but now that Spencer Drango is doing it, it’s made the offense even worse.

Drango versus Joey Bosa is the mismatch of the century. Shon Coleman going against Melvin Ingram isn’t much better. Kizer is going to have no time in the pocket, and he’ll to take lots of sacks and force tons of bad passes as a result. He’ll have Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman on the field together for the first time, but the Chargers’ have a dynamic secondary that will be able to cover them.

I can’t imagine the Browns running the ball very well either. The Chargers have improved versus the rush ever since they got Denzel Perryman back from injury, and Isaiah Crowell isn’t very good anyway.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Philip Rivers was unstoppable on Thanksgiving, and I don’t see why that would change in this game. The Browns have a horrific defense that couldn’t contain Andy Dalton last week. How in the world are they going to put the clamps on a suddenly red-hot Rivers?

There have been a couple of reasons why Rivers has improved so much in recent weeks. One is the emergence of Keenan Allen, who finally looks healthy. I don’t think Briean Boddy-Calhoun will be able to cover him in the slot. Orlando Scandrick couldn’t even do it. Two, Rivers has gotten better protection ever since rookie Dan Feeney entered the lineup at left guard. The Chargers block well on the left side with Feeney and Russell Okung, and that’s where Cleveland’s best defensive linemen, Myles Garrett and Danny Shelton, happen to be. Rivers should have enough time to find Allen and Hunter Henry, who will be battling a defense that can’t stop tight ends.

Rivers won’t have to do everything anyway. Melvin Gordon figures to have another strong performance. The Browns have a horrific run defense that was trampled by Joe Mixon last week. Mixon gained 114 yards, marking the first time he eclipsed 62 yards on the ground as a pro! If Mixon could have tons of success, Gordon should be able to as well.

RECAP: I’ve been snake-bitten with some of my picks this year. The Eagles not covering +6 at Kansas City turned out to be a travesty (seriously, can I get a refund for that?) The Chargers blowing the spread at New England because of a safety and a front-door field goal was frustrating. The Jets should’ve covered last week. And who could forget Justin Houston’s touchdown on Monday night against the Redskins? Ugh.

That said, it’s mostly my fault that I’ve been having such a down year. I’ve made lots of bad selections, and I’ve also done a poor job of recognizing great betting opportunities. Once it was apparent that Kizer happens to be terrible – around Week 3 or 4 – I should’ve been wagering against the Browns each week.

Well, I’m finally going to pull the trigger. The Chargers are much better than the Browns, and they’ll be motivated to win this game after losing to them last year. My line for this is Chargers -16.5, so this spread, even at -13.5, is too low. I’m going to take San Angeles for three units, as there is too great of a disparity between the Chargers and Browns for this game to be close, barring some fluky turnovers and special-teams nonsense.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This should be a blowout, as the rested Chargers have a lopsided matchup against the worst team in the NFL.

SATURDAY NOTES: Casey Hayward is dealing with the death of his brother, so he may not play this game. Either way, it won’t discourage me from betting three-plus units on the Chargers. This pick will end up being 3-4 units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There are some -13.5s available at the sharper books, as there has been some pro money on the Browns. Same old story. I still love the Chargers, and the best line for them is -14 +105 at 5Dimes.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The books are getting crushed today, with the Patriots and Jaguars covering. If the Packers win, it’ll be an absolute blood bath. Anyway, the sharps are on the Browns, as the sharp books have lines of -13 and -13.5. The best line for the Chargers that is widely available is -14 +105 at 5Dimes. I’m still on them for three units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Not too many people are betting the Browns.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 65% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chargers -13.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Chargers 31, Browns 13
Chargers -14 +105 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$300
Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 19, Browns 10

Carolina Panthers (8-3) at New Orleans Saints (8-3)
Line: Saints by 6. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -4.
Sunday, Dec 3, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2017 NFL Survivor Pool. Of the 1,630 we had to start the year, we’re down to 24. We lost one person last week to the Chiefs, who eliminated 30 people the week before!

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It’s amazing to think how much the Saints’ scoring attack has changed throughout the season. When New Orleans battled the Panthers in Week 3, Alvin Kamara had three touches. Yup. That’s it. Kamara has since become a much larger part of the offense, and his role only figures to increase. He’s a dynamic, elusive threat who can score literally every time he touches the ball. The Rams had no answer for him, as he tallied 188 yards on just 11 touches last week.

Kamara will have a tough test in this game, as the Panthers have been excellent at defending running backs all season, thanks to their outstanding linebackers. But that’s not nearly the biggest concern for the Saints entering this rematch. That would be the injury to Terron Armstead, who limped off the field in Sunday’s game.

There’s no telling if Armstead will be able to play, but there’s no doubt that his availability will have a huge impact on this contest. The Saints have been so much more effective this year when they’ve had either Armstead or Zach Strief on the field. Armstead will be needed to block the Panthers’ front. If he’s not around, Drew Brees won’t be able to capitalize on the Panthers’ weakness, which happens to be their secondary. Josh McCown and Robby Anderson just torched Carolina, but Brees may not have that opportunity if Armstead is missing.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Saints also have some major injury issues on this side of the ball. They were missing both of their talented cornerbacks, Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley, against the Rams, and they couldn’t stop Jared Goff, Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp as a consequence. The two corners, especially Lattimore, have been so instrumental in New Orleans’ improved defense, so it wasn’t a surprise to see the Saints regress on this side of the ball last week.

It’s not yet clear if Lattimore and Crawley will play, but as with Armstead, their statuses will have a huge impact on this game. Devin Funchess has played well since the Kelvin Benjamin trade, so the Saints will need one of their top corners to cover him.

Meanwhile, the Saints linebackers will need to step up to defend Cam Newton’s scrambles and Christian McCaffrey’s receptions. In the first meeting between these teams, Newton was not yet healthy after offseason shoulder surgery, but he’s been playing well for the most part recently. New Orleans’ linebackers are pedestrian, at best, so it’s going to be difficult to stop Carolina’s scoring unit.

RECAP: It’s tough to make a prediction right now because the Saints have so many injury question marks. Whether Armstead, Lattimore and Crawley play will affect which team I pick and how much I’ll be betting on this game.

Here’s what we do know: The Saints already beat the Panthers this year, and they have a tough game coming up against the Falcons in four days. There might be a look-ahead factor, though I think there’d be a much greater chance of that if the Saints were coming off a win.

I’m going to pencil in Carolina for no units, but that could change throughout the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Marshon Lattimore missed practice Thursday, which is a good sign for the Panthers. Curiously, the line moved up to -4.5 Thursday. It needs to get to +6 to make me consider betting Carolina.

SATURDAY NOTES: Marson Lattimore was limited in Friday’s practice, so he has a chance of suiting up. I’m still on a zero-unit lean with the Panthers, though this line is inching toward +6, which could entice me to bet Carolina.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Panthers are now available at +6 -115 at Bovada. I’m considering them for a wager, but I’d like to see Christian McCaffrey’s status before I do so. Check back around 3:45 p.m. Eastern.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Panthers are now +6 across the board, thanks to public and sharp action on the Saints. I think this line is too high now, but +6 seems too good to pass up, especially with Marshon Lattimore out. I’m going to put a unit on Carolina.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

People are betting the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 67% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Panthers have won 7 of the last 11 meetings.

Saints are 39-28 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 41-26 ATS after a loss with the Saints (14-7 ATS as an underdog).

Opening Line: Saints -4.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Saints 27, Panthers 24
Panthers +6 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 31, Panthers 21

Los Angeles Rams (8-3) at Arizona Cardinals (5-6)
Line: Rams by 7. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -8.5.
Sunday, Dec 3, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Rams.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 10 (I can’t believe this is the 10th year I’ve been doing this!) In Episode 12, Evil Emmitt continues his quest for the golden spheres, while Real Emmitt is captured in Turkey Neck Town.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Cardinals gave Blake Bortles a ton of problems last week because Chandler Jones and the rest of the defensive front was able to put lots of pressure on him. Jacksonville already had a bad offensive line, and it was in even worse shape because two starters were out of the lineup. That’s far from the case with the Rams, who have their excellent blocking unit intact.

Andrew Whitworth is one of the best left tackles in the NFL, so he’ll be able to keep Jones out of the backfield. This will give Jared Goff plenty of time to dissect Arizona’s secondary. Patrick Peterson will take away Sammy Watkins, but Goff does a great job of spreading the ball around. Robert Woods is out, but Josh Reynolds was a solid replacement. And don’t forget Cooper Kupp as well.

The Rams’ greater threat, of course, is Todd Gurley, who continues to have an excellent season. The Cardinals are solid at stopping the run, but because of shaky linebacker play, they’ve struggled at defending pass-catching backs. Gurley excels in that regard, so he’ll help the Rams move the chains effectively.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals’ ability to put 27 points on the scoreboard last week was borderline miraculous. Seriously, I have no idea how they did it. Blaine Gabbert playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL shouldn’t have generated that sort of production. Perhaps Blake Bortles’ numerous turnovers had something to do with it.

I have to believe the 27-point output was a fluke, and I think I’ll be proven right after this game. Arizona, quite simply, cannot block, especially in the interior. That’s where Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers reside, and both players will dominate in the trenches. This will force Gabbert into poor throws, and he’ll likely be responsible for multiple turnovers as a consequence.

I can’t see Adrian Peterson having much success either. Peterson was limited to just 21 yards on 11 carries the first time he played the Rams, and the one thing that has changed since has been talented left tackle D.J. Humphries getting knocked out for the year. Peterson has not been the same since losing Humphries.

RECAP: This has blowout written all over it. My one concern, however, is the spot the Rams are in. They’re coming off a statement victory over the Saints, and they have to play the Eagles next week. However, they’re a young, enthusiastic team, and they’ve played well in other bad spots before. If the Rams were a grizzled veteran group like the Steelers, I think there’d be a much greater chance for a letdown, but they may not know any better.

With that in mind, this seems like a one-sided affair. The Rams are going to win nearly every matchup on the field, and they’re battling an atrocious quarterback in Gabbert, a proven loser who has a 6-10 ATS record since 2013. He covered last week, but that almost doesn’t count because he was battling Bortles. Unlike the Jaguars, the Rams will be able to score on most possessions to force Gabbert into bad decisions.

I’m taking the Rams for three units. The bad spot is a slight concern, but I’m confident enough to make this a somewhat big play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No sharp action on this game, which is a bad sign for the Cardinals because the pros tend to bet large underdogs.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps still haven’t touched the Cardinals. Adrian Peterson might be out, but I’m not sure how much that matters. I really like the Rams to cover.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The juice on the Rams is beginning to rise, as there is no sharp money coming in on the Rams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Adrian Peterson is out, but this line is still -7/7 -120/-7.5, depending on where you look. He had no impact on the spread. The sharps still haven’t touched this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

The Rams are coming off a big win against the Saints. Following this contest, they have to take on the Eagles. Arizona, meanwhile, will be out for revenge after the Rams demolished them in London.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

The Rams are getting a lot of bets.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 69% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Cardinals have won 15 of the last 22 meetings.

Cardinals are 27-15 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 30-14 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Rams -7.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Rams 27, Cardinals 13
Rams -7 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 32, Cardinals 16

New York Giants (2-9) at Oakland Raiders (5-6)
Line: Raiders by 9. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Raiders -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Raiders -8.
Sunday, Dec 3, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Raiders.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Angry, Old Men, and Sara the Starbucks Scumbag

NEW YORK OFFENSE: If you haven’t heard, Eli Manning has been benched in favor of Geno Smith. I discussed where Eli Manning could be traded next year. It’s not shocking that Manning was benched, but it’s more surprising that the Giants have opted to go with Smith instead of rookie Davis Webb. At least it was at first. Then, I thought about it, and I wondered if the Giants are thinking Smith could be their quarterback of the future. Smith was once highly regarded, and he’s only 27. He didn’t get a fair chance with the Jets, so perhaps he still has some believers.

Then again, he’s not going to get much of a fair chance with the Giants, who have a horrible offensive line, a sub-par rushing attack and receivers who drop countless passes. The blocking is especially poor now that Justin Pugh is out for the year. In the wake of Pugh’s absence, New York couldn’t block Ryan Kerrigan last week, so I don’t know how they’re going to keep Khalil Mack out of the backfield.

There is some hope, however, as the Raiders have a poor defense. They have well-documented problems in their linebacking corps and safety. Smith could have some success throwing to Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram, though he’ll be very inconsistent because of the poor protection.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders had all of the headlines heading into this contest before the Manning benching. Michael Crabtree has been suspended for his fight with Aqib Talib. So, if he loses his appeal, and Amari Cooper doesn’t return from his concussion, the Raiders’ top receivers in this game will be Cordarrelle Patterson and Seth Roberts. That would certainly soften the blow for the Giants losing Janoris Jenkins to injury.

That said, Derek Carr should still have success moving the chains. His offensive line has gotten better since a sluggish start to the season, and Jared Cook, who has played well this year, figures to abuse a New York defense that hasn’t been able to stop tight ends whatsoever.

While the Giants are weak to tight ends, they tend to clamp down on the run well because of Snacks Harrison. Expect Marshawn Lynch to struggle once again as a runner, though he could once again have success as a receiver out of the backfield versus New York’s poor linebackers.

RECAP: Those expecting me to add Geno Smith to the crappy quarterbacks list might be disappointed. I don’t think he’s nearly as terrible as some of the names on the list. Maybe I’m wrong, but I think Smith could be a solid backup in the NFL for a long time. Smith never got a fair chance with the Jets, and I liked what we saw out of him in the preseason. Davis Webb would’ve provided a much better fade opportunity!

With that in mind, I’m going to pick the Giants to cover. I expect the Raiders to be aloof in this game. They’re coming off that ridiculous Denver contest, and they have to take on the Chiefs in this contest. I highly doubt they’re going to take the Giants seriously in the wake of the Manning benching.

This is a zero-unit selection. It’s unclear how the Giants will respond to Manning being benched, but I could see them giving the Raiders some problems.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Everyone is betting the Raiders, or rather, everyone is betting against Geno Smith. I don’t think Smith is that bad, but I don’t trust the Giants to show up.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams are getting a key player back on defense. For the Giants, it’s top linebacker B.J. Goodson. For the Raiders, it’s starting cornerback David Amerson. I still don’t see a good betting opportunity here, unfortunately.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s been some sharp action on the Giants on Sunday morning, which this spread dropping to +8.5 in some books. This isn’t surprising, as everyone is talking about the Giants as if the sky is falling for them, but Geno Smith might be the better quarterback for them because of his mobility.

FINAL THOUGHTS: David Amerson is out for the Raiders, which would hurt if the Giants had a solid quarterback. I think this line is too high, but the result of this game will depend on whether or not New York shows up or not.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

The Raiders are coming off a big win against their arch rivals. After this game, they have to take on the Chiefs, which could decide the division.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Who wants to bet on Geno Smith?

Percentage of money on Oakland: 75% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 48-34 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 43-35 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Raiders are 10-27 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Raiders are 11-35 ATS at home vs. teams with losing records.

Raiders are 18-33 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Raiders -7.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Raiders 24, Giants 20
Giants +9 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 24, Giants 17

Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) at Seattle Seahawks (7-4)
Line: Eagles by 3.5. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -4.
Sunday, Dec 3, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Eagles.

It’s time for a Ross Avila update! Ross, some idiot kid on Facebook who challenged me to a picking contest this year, has finally thrown in the towel. He stopped making his own picks after Week 3, and because I called him out on stealing other people’s selections, he has apparently quit.

Ross said he would go away for good if I won, but he predictably hasn’t kept his word. Instead, he has begun resorting to making fun of random women who aren’t around to defend themselves:

Ross Avila, confirmed insecure scumbag.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: This was supposed to be a big test for Carson Wentz. Not that he needed one, but I recall several TV analysts looking ahead to this game as one where Wentz would be challenged because of the Legion of Boom. Well, that’s no longer the case, as Seattle is missing Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor from its heralded secondary.

Matt Ryan threw all over the Seahawks a couple of Monday nights ago, so I don’t see why things would go any differently for Wentz. He’s the second-best starting quarterback in the NFL right now, and I truly believe he’ll be the best signal-caller in the NFL in three or so years. There’s no reason to think he’ll be tripped up against a mediocre group of cornerbacks, especially with all of the weapons at his disposal, especially Zach Ertz. The Seahawks haven’t been very good versus tight ends this year, so Ertz should have a strong performance.

The Seahawks will need to apply tons of pressure on Wentz to rattle him, and even then, it’s not even a given because he’s so elusive. The problem is that Wentz is shielded by a terrific offensive line. Seattle’s best defensive lineman, Michael Bennett, won’t win many matchups versus the best right tackle in the league, Lane Johnson.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: This is an even bigger mismatch on this side of the ball. The Seahawks have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. It’s gotten better since the Duane Brown acquisition, but they still have numerous holes up front, including at right guard and right tackle. Guess which side Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham are stationed?

Of course, Russell Wilson sees tons of pressure every game. He’ll do Wilson things for sure, as he’ll scramble out of the pocket and make numerous plays with his legs. The Eagles have some excellent linebackers in Nigel Bradham and Mychal Kendricks to limit Wilson, however.

The Eagles also have a very talented secondary that has improved tremendously since Ronald Darby returned from injury. Darby and Mills should do a good job on the Seattle wideouts, while the linebackers and safeties figure to defend Jimmy Graham effectively.

RECAP: I’ve picked the Eagles every single week this year, and I’m not going to stop now. I can see why people would be interested in the Seahawks, as they’ve always kept games close in the Pete Carroll era, but they appear to be severely outmatched in this contest.

I wish we were getting a better number, however. I was planning to bet the Eagles when this line opened -3. I didn’t like -3.5 nearly as much, or -4 for that matter. Now, this spread is -5.5. I think anything under -6 is reasonable, but I would start thinking about the Seahawks at +6.5. I don’t know; either way, I’m not betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Seahawks have yet to get any sharp action. You’d think that a home dog with a great quarterback would garner professional money, but the Eagles have just been too good.

SATURDAY NOTES: Holy hell, do the Seahawks have a ton of injuries. In addition to the players already out, Earl Thomas and Bobby Wagner are listed as questionable. They’re both expected to play, but they may not be at 100 percent. If the books really need the Eagles to cover, the officials are going to have to do a big number on Philadelphia. The sharps have taken Philadelphia at -3 and Seattle at +6.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s a TON of sharp money on the Seahawks right now. This line is down to +3.5. I still have no interest in betting this game, but I’d consider the Eagles at -3 if that line becomes available.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sportsbooks had another losing day. It wasn’t nearly the blood bath that Week 12 was, but they may need the Seahawks to cover. The public is all over the Eagles, while the sharps are split on this game. I personally don’t have much of an opinion. The spread is -3.5, and the number I made for this game is -4. This seems like a 50-50 game for me. If you’re rooting for the sportsbooks to lose, by the way, cheer for the Eagles to win by four or five points, as that would result in a brutal middle for the house.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

A good amount of action is on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 65% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Carson Wentz is 17-10 SU, 17-10 ATS as a starter.

Russell Wilson is 15-5 ATS in night games.

Seahawks are 20-9 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.

Seahawks are 12-5 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Eagles 34, Seahawks 27
Eagles -3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 24, Eagles 10

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-6)
Line: Steelers by 4.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -4.
Monday, Dec 4, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Steelers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Cincinnati Reds take on the Pittsburgh Bengals. Guys, I’m one of the best announcers in all of sports, but I think I might make some mistakes tonight because I was so busy partying during Thanksgiving weekend. I had so much to drink and to celebrate that I’m crazy right now!

Emmitt: Crazy, I-

Tollefson: Hold on a second, Emmitt. This is important. I can’t believe Kevin finally stopped being a p***y and went out to the bars to drink. You know, they call the Wednesday before Thanksgiving the greatest drinking night of the year. I call it the best night of the year to capture and enslave women. I brought five women back to my house, and I forced them to cook and clean naked for me. Wait, no, scratch that. I didn’t force them. They love doing it because they’re women!

Herm: GOTTA CALL THE POLICE! GOTTA CALL THE COPS! GOTTA CALL THE AUTHORITIES! GOTTA CALL 9-1-1! GOTTA TELL SOMEONE! GOTTA INFORM SOMEONE! GOTTA RAT YOU OUT! CAN’T ENSLAVE WOMEN! CAN’T CONTROL WOMEN! CAN’T-

Tollefson: Sorry, guys, I had to bop Herm over the head because he was going to tell the police I’m keeping countless women in my basement. Can’t have that happening. Anyway, Kevin, I’m proud of you. Maybe we can go hunting for women slaves next weekend!

Reilly: No, Tolly, mother says I’m too young to talk to women, and I didn’t even go out to the bars. By partying all weekend, I meant that mother let me sit at the adults’ table for the first time ever on Thanksgiving, and what I meant by drinking so much was that I had lots of soda! I got so hyper! And I’m excited because I have some great news to share with all of you. Jay Cutler proposed to mother, and she said yes! Jay Cutler is here to talk about it. Hi, daddy, I mean, Jay Cutler!

Jay Cutler: Hey.

Reilly: Jay, do you want to tell everyone how it happened!?

Jay Cutler: I dunno, I guess. Your mom told me she really wanted to get married, and she asked me if I wanted to, and I said “I dunno.” So she put a ring in my pocket and told me to take it out and give it to her. I kinda didn’t feel like doing it, but there was nothing else going on, so I did it for some reason, so I kinda gave it to her and I guess we’re getting married now.

Reilly: Wow! Guys, can you believe this happened!? Jay Cutler is really going to be my new daddy!

Millen: Jay, I have to say I’m disappointed in you. I was holding out hope that you’d sneak into my hotel room and ram your own kielbasas into my own backside, but I guess that’s not happening now.

Reilly: Stay away from Jay, you creep! He’s my daddy, and my mommy’s future husband! Tell him you won’t sneak into his hotel room, new daddy!

Jay Cutler: Fine, I guess.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by sneaking into a hotel room. There’s a room in a hotel. Here’s what I mean by room. It’s a space with walls. Usually, there are four walls. Usually, four is greater than three. And usually, four is fewer than five. Notice how I said “fewer” instead of “less.” This is a common mistake amongst English speakers. Let’s go back to the point. A hotel is a building with lots of rooms where people sleep in these rooms. And sneaking is to go somewhere without informing someone you’re going there. So, by sneaking into a hotel room, you’re going to a building with lots of rooms where people sleep in these rooms without telling anyone you’re going into one of these rooms, and these rooms happen to have four walls, which is between three walls and five walls.

Wolfley: I HAVE TO DISAGREE THAT FOUR IS FEWER THAN FIVE. I COME FROM A PARALLEL UNIVERSE WHERE EVERYTHING IS THE SAME, EXCEPT FOUR IS GREATER THAN FIVE, AND FIRE HYDRANTS DON’T HAVE LIPS, UNLIKE IN THIS UNIVERSE.

Reilly: When do fire hydrants have lips in this universe, weirdo?

Charles Davis: Kevin, it’s interesting that you’d talk about lips, Kevin. Let’s talk about other body parts, Kevin. Let’s talk about ears, Kevin. How about we discuss nose, Kevin? What about elbow, Kevin? Let’s not forget tongue, Kevin! How about eyebrow, Kevin!? Can you name a body part, Kevin? We know which body part Millen would name, and that counts, Kevin! Why don’t you name that, Kevin? Or anything else, Kevin? Anything, Kevin.

Reilly: Let me guess, you’re going to say that I said pepperoni pizza?

Charles Davis: Kevin, you said it, Kevin, not me, Kevin. Pepperoni pizza is not a body part, Kevin. You lose, Kevin.

Reilly: Well the joke is on you! I have new daddy here to beat you up! Jay, attack Charles Davis!

Jay Cutler: Meh. Don’t really feel like doing anything right now.

Reilly: NO, NEW DADDY! YOU’RE SUPPOSED TO BEAT UP BULLIES FOR ME! HOW WILL I FINALLY STOP THE BULLIES WITHOUT YOU!? WAHHHHHH!!! We’ll be back after this!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers scored 29 points the first time they played the Bengals this year, accumulating 420 net yards of offense in the process. This was an impressive output, considering that Ben Roethlisberger hadn’t rounded into shape yet. Roethlisberger had a very sluggish start to his season, as it appeared as though he thought a bit too hard about retirement the prior summer. In the first half of the year, Roethlisberger was very inconsistent on his deep passes, constantly overthrowing his targets.

Things have changed recently. Roethlisberger has been terrific since the Thursday night affair against the Titans. In his previous two contests, he has thrown for 650 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. Sure, one contest was against the Packers, but the Bengals aren’t much better defensively. They have Geno Atkins, Vontaze Burfict and Carlos Dunlap, but that’s about it. Their secondary is an absolute mess, and Roethlisberger should continue to stay hot against it.

It seems as though the only way Roethlisberger doesn’t do well is if Le’Veon Bell has all the big plays. Bell rushed for 134 yards and caught three passes for 58 receiving yards against the Bengals the first time these teams met. The Bengals couldn’t even stop Isaiah Crowell last weekend, so I don’t know how they’ll be able to contain Bell.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: As bad as things were for the Bengals’ defense the first time these teams met, the offense was in far worse shape. Cincinnati accumulated just 179 net yards, as its line couldn’t block whatsoever. The Bengals had just one first down in the second half, as Andy Dalton had zero time to throw.

What’s sad about this is that Stephon Tuitt didn’t even play in that game! Tuitt is one of the top five-technique defensive linemen in the NFL, and I thought his absence would help the Bengals cover. It did not. The Bengals weren’t competitive with the Steelers, and things are seemingly just going to get worse now that Tuitt is in the lineup to help Cameron Heyward break through one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

While Dalton will have zero time to throw, Joe Mixon won’t have any running lanes to burst through. Mixon finally eclipsed the 100-yard barrier last week, but he’ll have a tough time doing that again; Pittsburgh hasn’t surrendered more than 70 rushing yards since Week 5!

RECAP: The Steelers are the far superior team in this matchup, but you could’ve said that about them versus Green Bay last week. Pittsburgh didn’t show up (or was told not to show up) and consequently won by just three.

I think it’s possible the same thing will happen again in this contest, especially if the books need the Steelers to bail them out once again. If so, this will be a back-and-forth game that will be decided by three.

However, given that the Steelers laid an egg, and the fact that they despise the Bengals, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that Pittsburgh shows up for this contest. I think it’s far more difficult to determine the Steelers’ motivation than it was last week, so I’m not going to bet this game. I’m going to select the Bengals for now, but that could change as I think about this game throughout the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s a huge sharp wager, with the pros taking the Bengals down to +4.5. I didn’t even want Cincinnati at +6, so I’m even less interested.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m actually going to change this pick. I was thinking about it, and I believe the Steelers will show up for this game. They tend to lay eggs as road favorites, but they loathe Cincinnati. I think they’ll be motivated enough to crush the Bengals.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Antonio Brown may not play this game after missing practice all week. That wouldn’t affect my opinion on this game, as Cincinnati’s big problems are on offense.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Antonio Brown is active, but reports say that he’s been running around gingerly in pre-game warmups. I don’t really care about that. What matters to me is if the Steelers will show up as a big road favorite. They’ve laid so many eggs in this situation in the past, but they played hard at Baltimore earlier in the year, and I think the same thing will happen tonight. The Steelers hate the Bengals, so I think they’ll want to embarrass them. It’s worth noting that there’s some sharp money on the Bengals, but I think the Steelers cover tonight. However, I’m not nearly confident enough to bet them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Bengals are out for revenge, but the Steelers hate Cincinnati.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

No surprise that people are betting the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 75% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 17 of the last 22 meetings.

Ben Roethlisberger is 47-26 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Ben Roethlisberger is 45-28 ATS in December and January.

Steelers are 23-35 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Steelers are 12-25 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.

Opening Line: Steelers -5.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 13 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Bengals 17
Steelers -4.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 23, Bengals 20

Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games
Washington at Dallas, Kansas City at NY Jets, San Francisco at Chicago, New England at Buffalo, Denver at Miami, Minnesota at Atlanta, Indianapolis at Jacksonville, Tampa Bay at Green Bay, Detroit at Baltimore, Houston at Tennessee

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Buccaneers +8.5, Rams -1 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)